But Trump has spent a year fashioning the justice system as his enemy — assailing witnesses who have testified against him and relitigating the conduct at the heart of the charges against him
That doesn’t work when you’re a criminal defendant. The story:https://t.co/VSHmpc2sY0
— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) October 16, 2023
⭐️
CHUTKAN is not going to place many constraints on Trump lawyers if they conduct a poll of the jury pool. But she is not going to “prevent or micromanage” the defense’s use of a survey. She will want to scrutinize methodology if Trump uses the survey to move for change of venue.
— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) October 16, 2023
⭐️
CHUTKAN to Lauro: “Mr. Trump is a criminal defendant. He is facing four felony charges. He is under the supervision of the criminal justice sytem and he must comply with the conditions of release. He does not have the right to say and do exactly as he pleases.”
— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) October 16, 2023
⭐️
Trump faces reckoning as D.C. judge mulls gag order (Politico)
Excerpts
And a gag order would immediately raise two questions that could define his bid to retake the White House: Is Trump capable of abiding by a court-ordered restriction on his speech? And what is Chutkan prepared to do if he isn’t?
Monday’s hearing in Washington, D.C., will feature the first clues on the answers to both of those questions.
.
Chutkan, an appointee of former President Barack Obama, has repeatedly vowed not to consider Trump’s political fortunes in her decision-making. And in fact, many criminal defendants face sharp restrictions on their ability to comment on matters connected to their cases — particularly when those comments could conceivably influence the outcome.
If Trump were to violate a potential gag order, enforcement would fall to Chutkan, who has a range of options ranging from gentle warnings to pretrial incarceration. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which she orders the former president jailed before trial — though his rhetoric may test that premise. Still, short of detention, Chutkan could impose other restrictions, such as limits on his use of social media or access to the internet. Any consequence she were to impose on Trump would become instant grist for Trump’s attacks on the court and the justice system, a dynamic Chutkan is plainly aware of.
The former president is already subject to a narrow gag order in another case: the New York civil fraud trial of Trump and his business empire, which Trump attended earlier this month. During the proceedings, Trump posted a social media attack on Justice Arthur Engoron’s top clerk, including a picture of her and a link to her Instagram account. When Engoron learned of the post, he quickly ordered Trump to refrain from publicly commenting on his aides and staff.
Open thread.
Ken
Apropos of nothing, the Sam Bankman-Fried trial continues and is not going well for the defense, according to most observers including Molly White. Bankman-Fried was incarcerated before the trial, and remains incarcerated during it, for violating the terms of his pre-trial release.
Old School
Lock him up!
NotMax
Judge Chutkan has already said as a condition of release she’d be open to advancing the trial date as a consequence.
Geminid
To carry over the last post’s theme:
“When the Big Big Goblin goes Wob Wob Wobblin’ along, along….”
Geminid
@Ken: Bankman-Fried’s housing is probably better now than the jail in that Carribean Island where he was arrested. He didn’t seem to fight extradition very hard.
Barbara
@NotMax: That would be a risky move on her part although I definitely understand the logic behind it.
smith
@NotMax: According to Meidas Touch, she just confirmed she would not move the trial date. I haven’t yet found it on any other sources, though.
NotMax
@Geminid
An’ the Gobble-uns’ll git you
Ef you
Don’t
Watch
Out!
– James Whitcomb Riley
.
Barbara
@Geminid: He is a bizarre individual who seems to have a maturity level that is in inverse proportion to his IQ. I read his “statistical” argument for why Shakespeare can’t be the greatest writer — and it basically is along the lines of an incredibly high percentage of all humans who have ever lived having been born just in the last century. So what’s the chance that someone born in 1564 could be the greatest writer? Superficial, childish, satisfied with shallow and glib posturing, willful misunderstanding of the limits of math based analysis — Yes, not a person I would give my money to under any circumstances.
NotMax
@smith
Not terribly surprising as these strictures are imposed incrementally.
Other MJS
Ordering Trump to shut up is entrapment ‘cuz that’s the one thing he can’t do. Weaponized justice!
Ken
@Geminid: One thing I found interesting about the Bankman-Fried trial is that he’s on Adderal (legitimately, unlike many users). He can get the doses while in jail, but not while in court. Both the prosecution and the defense are trying to find a solution, the prosecution because this could be the basis for an appeal as it affects his ability to instruct and advise his lawyers.
Yarrow
Jim Jordan is apparently picking up some votes. Mike Rogers and Ken Calvert have tweeted their support now.
WaterGirl
@smith: Yes, all the attorneys whose podcasts I listen to said that she really can’t move up the trial date because they have already set all the interim deadlines based on how much time would be needed for them.
Looks like they were (maybe) right.
Suzanne
I want him subject to a ball gag order.
NotMax
@WaterGirl
Then again, the court calendar is set entirely at the discretion of the presiding judge.
Leto
In case you need some more morning laughs: For Mike Lindell and MyPillow, there’s no turning back
Mike Furlan
@Ken:
But Sam did not provide a tax cut for billionaires, and three fascist Supreme Court justices. That is why he is in jail, and Trump is free.
Geminid
@Barbara: Bankman-Fried will likely meet some kindred spirits in prison.
NotMax
@Leto
The stupid, it burns.
Whomever
@Geminid maybe. He’s been housed at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn which has a pretty bad reputation, it’s no Club Fed.
Sure Lurkalot
@Yarrow:
Principled! Moderate! Conservatives! save nation by supporting alleged insurrection conspirator for house speaker.
Truly fucked if Jordan is speaker, may have to redouble and speed up ideas on how to GTFOH. Looks like New Zealand is out.
smith
@WaterGirl: It also would give him grounds for an appeal that he might win on, if he convinced a court that it hampered his ability to prepare a defense.
One thing about the gag order — it seems to me that with all these cases, we’re seeing a series of thresholds that prosecutors and judges have been very reluctant to step across because they are unprecedented actions. But when someone finally does take the step, and the rest soon follow. One such was a criminal indictment of an ex-president, first breached by Alvin Bragg. Jack Smith and Fani Willis were already preparing cases, but I think his action in going first made it easier for them to proceed, having prepared the ground in the minds of the public and the press.
Now we have the gag order for a candidate for president, another unprecedented step, which has been taken ever so slightly by Judge Engoron. The sky didn’t fall, and TFG actually hasn’t repeated his attack on the court staff. Maybe Judge Chutkan will be willing to go a bit further?
We have a couple more momentous thresholds that in my opinion either will have to be passed, or should be passed: Jailing a former president, and taking on the speech and debate clause when members of Congress commit criminal acts in support of an insurrection.
Frankensteinbeck
@Barbara:
Crypto’s strongest appeal is to people who love thinking they’re the smartest person in the room. People have gotten rich quick! It’s shiny and technical and has a lot of hard to understand details! You’re on the cutting edge of a technology that will revolutionize the future! Boring people tell you it’s worthless, but somebody got rich, so clearly you’re smarter than those other people!
SBF is exactly typical of his kind, except for being one of the very few who actually got the money.
brantl
@Suzanne: Don’t threaten him with a good time.
TriassicSands
@Yarrow:
I wouldn’t be overwhelmingly shocked if Jordan were actually elected Speaker. The Republicans have a very bad habit of falling in line. Not electing a Speaker is unthinkable, but so is supporting Democrats, at least for most Republicans. Only they can get themselves out of this mess and most are so irresponsible that they may be willing to try anyone as Speaker just to move things along. After all, they tried McCarthy, that didn’t work out, and none of them have lost their seats yet, which may be the only thing most of them care about.
I simply can’t bring myself to trust the Republicans to act intelligently.
MattF
TFG will test the limits of any order, that’s given. The question is, what happens next?
cain
@Sure Lurkalot: If he is picking up votes – it’s because he’s made some promises. These assholes will break promises with each other – they are thieves they have no honor.
Frankensteinbeck
@TriassicSands:
I think the odds are against Jordan because it takes so few Republicans who absolutely hate him to block him. Still, he’s the only candidate and Republicans are already godawful sick of this process. They’re as lazy as they are cowardly. They could certainly throw in behind him on the combination of wanting to get it over with and not seeing any alternatives.
Alison Rose
LOL:
TriassicSands
@Frankensteinbeck:
Which was my point.
Jinchi
@Yarrow: If Jordan becomes speaker, it simply kicks the chaos ahead to the inevitable shutdown. I don’t know why any “moderates” would think this is better for their chances at re-election.
TriassicSands
@Frankensteinbeck:
On the other hand, this may go on awhile longer with one unacceptable candidate after another failing. But at some point, they pretty much will have to give in and let someone have a chance. Will that work? Who knows? They’re idiots.
mrmoshpotato
@TriassicSands:
What evidence do you have that they’d act stupidly?
MattF
@Barbara: It’s not merely coincidental that statisticians spend so much time and effort shooting down errors and misconceptions. Statistics is a subtle science. And, btw, ‘optimization’, which is at the heart of the effective altruism belief system, is even worse. I have some experience with that— the cartoons of arrows climbing hills are a long way from reality.
TriassicSands
It would be amusing, if after one candidate after another failing to get a majority, they somehow decide to go back to McCarthy. (He’s probably hoping so.) One question is, is it even possible to pressure the most extreme extremists?
TriassicSands
@mrmoshpotato:
Oh, it’s just a vague, nebulous feeling I have based on pretty much everything they do.
Alison Rose
@mrmoshpotato: All of it, Katie.
waspuppet
@TriassicSands: Oh there’s no question the Republicans will fall in line. If they didn’t, the whole notion of “Scream at people until they agree with you” would be in danger, and that can’t be allowed to happen. A few of them probably have staffers poring over data so they can say “Aha! OSU Wrestler #6 gave $100 to the Obama campaign in 2012! POLITICIZED WITCH HUNT” and vote for Jordan.
As for Trump, he will defy any order, especially from a Black woman judge. I strongly suspect the only reason he’s followed Engoron’s order is because even in his advanced state of mental collapse, he can understand that his guilt has already been proven and he’s just pissing off the guy who will directly decide what he pays.
cain
It’s a good thing that congress can’t break someone out of jail – imagine the shit show from the law and order party that goes in and tries to forgive people and get them out of jail.
MattF
@TriassicSands: Particularly when they are breathing. And when their lips are moving, all bets are off.
TriassicSands
@waspuppet:
Jungle Gym Jordan has proved beyond any doubt that screaming makes one’s arguments magically morph from being opinions into incontrovertible facts. (Or maybe not.)
mrmoshpotato
@TriassicSands:
@Alison Rose: Oh sure. Go with their long history of dumbfuckery and sabotage.
Geminid
@TriassicSands: The rightmost edge of that Caucus has some pretty wierd guys. Matt Rosendale and Bob Good don’t get the attention that Gaetz and Greene do, but they’re really out there in a wierd, makes-my-skin-crawl kind of way
Ed. Glad you are commenting!
Frankensteinbeck
@waspuppet:
These days, there is plenty of question. They didn’t fall in line for McCarthy. They didn’t fall in line for Scalise. They haven’t fallen in line for or against Ukraine. If you go beyond a bedrock principle like ‘No Republican should ever be punished for their crimes’ they’ve entered Leopards Eating Each Other’s Faces mode.
TriassicSands
@mrmoshpotato:
Oh, it’s a failing I have. When someone does something stupid 100 times out of 100, I figure there’s at least a 51% likelihood that the next thing they do will be stupid. (Plus
or minus49%)Yarrow
Ann Wagner has also flipped to supporting Jordan.
Jinchi
This is the main reason a Jeffries Speakership is a slight possibility. The alternative is perpetual disfunction. Eventually something will break.
Electing Jordan is jumping from the pan into the fire.
Geminid
@Frankensteinbeck: This caucus is like a Rubik’s Cube. They solved it once in January, on the 15th try. They might not be able to solve it a second time.
TriassicSands
Well, they did originally for McCarthy (never a good choice) and only a few of them failed to do so in the vote to oust him. And those don’t need to fall in line for Jordan, they’re already in line.
I admit, it’s a hard thing to figure out, which is why I originally said I wouldn’t be overwhelmingly surprised if they elected Jordan. Then, I think you also made the case for them falling in line. They have to solve this at some point.
Michael Bersin
@Geminid:
“….The rightmost edge of that Caucus has some pretty wierd guys….”
Understatement.
Former morning television newsreader Mark Alford (r) is supporting Jordan:
You asked
Another Scott
It’s all just mouth noises with the GQPers. TheHill.com:
“I will support the insurrectionist and norm-breaker because he said he will allow must-pass, conventional, baseline, legislation to pass! Yay Team!!1”
Nothing they say means anything. Watch what they do.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@Yarrow: I wonder if Don Bacon is still sizzling, or if he’s been flipped also.
TriassicSands
@Jinchi:
But the question is, do they hate Jordan more than they hate Democrats? I can’t answer that because Jordan is such a likeable guy. (Pushing the absolute boundaries of overstatement.)
NotMax
@Geminid
Packed like sardines, all riding the short rhombus.
//
TriassicSands
@NotMax:
The solution? Give every Republican a Rubik’s Cube and the first one to solve it becomes Speaker. OK, they’ll all cheat, so we’d just get the most effective cheater.
Ruckus
@Suzanne:
A basketball gag order.
Cameron
What a strange ride. From Nancy Pelosi to Gym Jordan (with a slight detour via Charlie McCarthy).
Ken
@mrmoshpotato: In this case, past performance is a guarantee of future results.
lee
@Ken:
That’s really odd. Adderall is taken every 4-6 hours. I’m curious why he can’t just take it in the morning (while incarcerated) and then again at lunch.
Eolirin
@Cameron: Jordan is far from a done deal. It doesn’t take many people to derail him even if he’s cutting deals with some. I’m not going to count on anything until we’re at a floor vote.
NotMax
@Cameron
Hey, don’t diss Charlie McCarthy. He may have been a dummy but one with a quick wit.
;)
Soprano2
I bet Jordan is selling his speakership as something that will “own the libs”, and we know they care more about that than pretty much anything else. “Think how mad liberals will be if you make me speaker” is probably a winning argument with 95% of the Republicans in the House.
Ruckus
@smith:
The steps have to be taken because the law is being broken and in obvious manners. Not taking action would be far worse for the future than for the present. The clowns don’t and should not run the country for the simple reason that they really are clowns.
Ken
Remember to first pop out an edge cube and rotate it 180 degrees.
MattF
Current Santos news (WaPo gift link).
UncleEbeneezer
The only thing worse than an acquittal would be a conviction that gets overturned on appeal. It’s a tricky scenario for Chutkan (and other judges) because while SCOTUS has been uninterested in throwing Trump a life-vest, so far, a significant First Amendment issue might get them to show their 6-3 Republican Partisanship given the opportunity. My guess is that fines will be the only real enforcement mechanism that Chutkan will administer. Much as I’d love to see Trump thrown in jail in the near-term, I’d much rather see him convicted in a way that won’t be overturned.
TriassicSands
@Ken:
Wait, isn’t the goal that someone should eventually be able to solve it?
MisterDancer
And this is a sign of how he’ll approach the role — horrifically. I hope I’m wrong, but:
Jordan will turn every act in the House into a reason to bash anything he hates in the media. To turn up the processes of breaking norms so that the Democratic side of the House is inundated with as much astro-turfed fury and hate as possible. He’s already tapping into the core drives of the very stochastic terrorism that Adam, among many others, have pointed out are pushing GOPers to hold to the far Right, even if they might feel otherwise.
And: Nothing is getting passed with Speaking Jordan that doesn’t help Trump and the ultra-right side, from what I’m seeing.
He’ll burn America — hell, the World — down and blame the firefighters amongst the ashes.
JML
@TriassicSands: I think the threat of a deal with democrats is Gym Jordan’s best weapon to trying to become Speaker. Tactically, it’s the best weapon by far, because that caucus is completely irrational when it comes to the Democratic Party and has a frightening number that consider anyone with a D next to their name to be fundamentally evil.
but who knows. They also have the significant problem that no one over there actually knows how to count votes.
Cameron
@JML: It’s Democrat. Democrat Party. Pwned again, haw, haw, haw!
Hoodie
@Frankensteinbeck: McCarthy and Scalise are different cases because the far right was always against them both. Many if not all “moderate” Republicans are cowards who live a dangerous neighborhood (i.e., the nutty GOP base) and will likely fall in line because they are deathly afraid of losing their jobs in a primary and/or losing their lives to various right wing nuts. The same guys who folded like a cheap suit after Jan 6 are not about to become profiles in courage over a speaker election. Kinzinger has spoken about that.
This whole thing looks like it a slow motion rightwing coup of House GOP leadership. Yes, the whole GOP caucus is pretty right wing, but up until now the leadership (which was supported by most of the caucus) has not been willing to burn down the house, as evidenced by McCarthy signing on to the recent CR. The far right has been waiting years for a chance to take over leadership, which allows them to dictate what gets on the floor and thus enables them to really go crazy, e.g., cause a real shutdown, debt crisis, Biden impeachment, etc. Jordan is their guy. Up until now there was no fucking way he would have been picked for leadership, but the stars have aligned for him with the thinness of the GOP majority and the characterological and political weakness of most GOP members of the House. He played it pretty cleverly by appearing to back McCarthy and then cutting Scalise (who lacks McCarthy’s ability to get support) off at the knees. Now, he’s presenting the bulk of the caucus with the Hobson’s choice of backing him to maintain party control or ally with Democrats, the latter of which would be career suicide.
Ken
@lee: It’s from Molly White’s latest report on the trial:
NotMax
@Ruckus
Trivia:
USC offers courses in Medical Clowning.
;)
TriassicSands
@UncleEbeneezer:
There is only one good outcome. Conviction.
I think a hung jury would be as bad, because, if it were 11-1, it would show that the jury system can be subverted. Yes, he could be retried, but a second hung jury would end his prosecution.
If it were 9-3 or something worse, it might lend weight to the idea that it was all a witch hunt from the start.
If the SCOTUS were to overturn the conviction, that would strongly point to the politicization of the Court and solidify the perception of the 6-3 majority as one consisting of partisan hacks.
Ken
@TriassicSands: No, if you take the solved cube and rotate just one edge piece, or one corner piece, you get a configuration that can’t be solved.
Yarrow
Tomorrow could be entertaining in an awful way.
TriassicSands
@JML:
Agreed. But Democrats are just just evil — they’re communists, the apex of evil.
frosty
@Suzanne: Isn’t it a little early for Balloon Juice After Dark?
Dorothy A. Winsor
smith
From WaPo just now:
TriassicSands
@Ken:
Which is what I said — Isn’t the goal that someone would eventually solve it? Win, lose, or draw there eventually has to be a Speaker. Otherwise, government shutdown is guaranteed.
Geminid
@Michael Bersin: Illinois Democrats added a weatherman to their Congressional delegation last year. Rep. Sorenson was weatherman for a TV station in the “Quad Cities” area on the Mississippi: Moline, Rock Island, Davenport and Bettendorf.
Very few members of the Democratic House Class of 2022 had no prior elected experience. Three of those were from Illinois. Besides Sorenson, Jonathan Jackson ran a non-profit community organization and Nikki Budzinski was Chief of Staff for the Director of OMB before she began her run for the 13th CD seat.
Florida’s Maxwell Frost might be the only other freshman Democrat who never held elective office before, if you count Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s service on her local Soil, Water and Conservation board as holding elective office. I think the rest were mayors or state legislators.
Despite never holding public office before, Nikki Budzinski might have the most political experience of all. Her Wikipedia biography is a good read. It does not mention that Ms. Budzinski is WaterGirl’s Congresswoman. Yet.
Kent
So far, McCarthy has gotten more votes than any other alternative so it actually makes sense. They could cut a deal with the Democrats to make the extremists irrelevant. They don’t actually need any Democratic votes, just a dozen or so Democrats to vote present and McCarthy wins.
The logical deal has been laid out before, something in the rules to allow for discharge petitions to bring things to the floor that have widespread support. That isn’t even power sharing, just allowing things to get voted on. And it would completely neuter Gaetz and his crew.
TriassicSands
@smith:
The only thing better, in terms of justice, would be a ball-gag order. Yes, Trump would fundraise off the photo.
The danger? Democrats might spend billions to get a photo of TIFG with a ball-gag in place.
Alison Rose
I mean…do we wanna start a pool on how soon he violates this?
In any case, I hope he’s pissed.
ETA: “But he cannot attack Jack Smith” — does that include referring to him as “deranged” because I hope it does. I feel like TIFG can’t go one day without doing so.
TriassicSands
The downside? It makes some sense. What Republican would go for that? (Yes, I’m being sarcastic.)
narya
I can’t help but wonder whether, if Gym does become Speaker, it would be another car-catching incident. In some ways, TIFG is Exhibit A, in the sense that he grifted his way along, and got away with stuff, but in the presidency, he had more opportunities to fk up AND more people able to hold him to account. A substantial number of his current issues would not have arisen had he stayed a private citizen. Ol’ Gym has largely escaped scrutiny by a lot of the population, but that spotlight could prove problematic–especially if DOJ has been looking into his J6 activities. (I’m firmly convinced that he has been doing the things he’s been doing precisely to determine whether he’s being investigated, etc.)
TriassicSands
Four indictments. So far, two gag orders. Will Trump achieve a perfect score? No, I can’t see Toady Cannon ever issuing a gag order unless he directly threatened her.
teezyskeezy
@Kent: Wait, does voting ‘present’ mean they are not considered presently *voting* members so they don’t count for calculating what is a majority? Yes, my ignorance of parliamentary procedure is expansive.
Ken
@TriassicSands: I see what you mean. Yes, we need a Speaker. I was thinking we could shut out all the Republican candidates by giving them an unsolvable Rubik’s Cube.
Geminid
@Ken: Georgia Rep. Mike Collins suggested that his caucus hold a lottery, and the loser would have to be the new Speaker.
Geminid
@narya: I think Jordan is a very poor choice in terms of public perception, even if you leave out the Ohio State scandal. He presents as a jerk; a disreputable man. Plus he’s not that bright, I think, and it shows.
TriassicSands
For Louie Gomert or Lauren Boebert, et al., that would simply require one little cube being one turn away from the solution.
Chris Johnson
@Hoodie: This. Jordan’s only argument is that he’s the insurrectionist, that Trump will win and march on a road of bones, and that anybody claiming to be a Republican who will not back their coup, will be killed.
This assumes two things: one, that there’s any chance of that even working, and two, that all the Republicans are in fact cowards rather than schemers.
I would expect loads of treachery. Jordan’s like Trump, in that he thinks it’s very simple: back the revolution, and there is no rule 2. He is no better at actual planning and scheming than Trump is, and they are up against serious players of all sorts.
The Republican House is about as trustworthy as the word of Lindsey Graham. Yeah they worship power, but blustering does not mean Jordan has actual power. And going along with him is doubling down on a really, really foolish bet. Not everybody has blind faith in Great Leader. Some of those guys are counting the ammunition and estimating the chances.
Remember how much of Trump and Jordan’s power is backed by the unspoken might of… Mother Russia XD yeah, that’s not looking the same as it looked in 2016…
schrodingers_cat
@Eolirin: Same here. Also Jordan’s ascension is a bigger problem for the Rs than the Ds politically speaking.
Ruckus
@NotMax:
Yes but the patients of those USC students are far more mature than the rethuglican side of congress….
sdhays
Don’t read too much into that. McQarthy reportedly stripped Ukraine funding from the CR with the idea that Democrats would balk and then it would be Democrats shutting down the government over Ukraine. And then he was caught with his pants down when Democrats said “ok”.
It was a very stupid plan, by a very stupid man.
Scout211
Yeah, the “could” in this sentence is just about as vague as “sanctions.” We’ll see what happens because yes, he (or his social media minions) will violate this order. It’s all designed to be included in his appeal down the road (if convicted).
Central Planning
@Leto:
Narrator: He will not.
Nettoyeur
@lee: There are also sliw release forms of Adderall
Suzanne
@frosty: I can’t help it. Trump suffering is appropriate at all times of day! It’s a palate cleanser!
Kent
It’s like not voting.
I think the only thing that matters is getting the most votes, not getting an absolute majority of the members present. So if the vote came down to:
McCarthy 210 votes
Jeffries 209 votes
Voting present (or for other random candidates): 20 votes
Then McCarthy is speaker.
catclub
I think the plan to enrage the judges so they will overreach in ruling against him, in order to get a reversal on appeal, is pretty stupid when it is telegraphed so obviously.
WaterGirl
@Alison Rose: I believe she specifically said Trump can not call him deranged.
WaterGirl
@Kent: I think you may be wrong on that.
It IS the majority of votes out of people who are physically present.
So if you are there and vote present, you still count in the total N that determines how many votes are needed to get the majority.
Let’s say there are 120 House members. If all 120 are present, you need 61 votes to get the majority.
If 20 people stay home, and only 100 people are physically present, then the N for voting is 100, you need 51 votes for the majority.
If 100 people are physically present, but 10 of them VOTE present, you only have 90 people voting, but you still have to get 51 votes.
That’s my understanding.
Old School
@WaterGirl: Voting present counts as not being there.
If 100 people are physically present, but 10 of them VOTE present, you only have 90 people voting, you still have to get 46 votes.
That’s how McCarthy finally became speaker back in January. The people who were against him changed their votes to present rather than for someone else.
TriassicSands
@WaterGirl: @Kent:
WaterGirl is correct. It is the majority of those voting. As long as a Republican gets more votes than Jeffries and a majority of those voting, the Republican wins. That is why, with everyone present and voting, the Speaker-elect must get 217 votes.
Timill
“To win the Speakership, a person must secure a simple majority of those present and voting. If each of the 435 Representatives-elect votes for a candidate, the majority would be 218. For each person who answers present or otherwise does not vote, the threshold to win a majority decreases. In effect, the threshold decreases by a vote for every two people who answer present or do not participate. So if 433 Members vote, a candidate would need 217 votes to win the Speakership.”
https://www.congressionalinstitute.org/2020/12/28/how-the-house-elects-its-speaker-2/