Just a quick drive-by to note the Gym Jordan (R-treasonweasel) seems to be heading for the speakership.
At least Josh Marshall thinks so:
Yesterday we noted that the latest GOP Speaker wannabe, Jim Jordan and his allies have shifted to mobilizing base MAGA supporters against the substantial number of holdouts who have either claimed they won’t vote for Jordan on the floor of the House or claim they will never vote for him. This morning Jordan seems to be making substantial headway. One key Republican holdout, Mike Rogers of Indiana, now says he’s on board. So does Ken Calvert, who represents a swing district in California.
…
Late Update: Now another, Ann Wagner (MO), has flipped. The rationale is refusal to be forced to work with Democrats to elect a Speaker. Steve Womack seems to be the only high profile NeverJim who’s holding tough. My assumption now is the Jordan probably wins this. Though we need to see more to know.
This seems pretty disastrous to me. Sure Jordan will heighten the focus on GOP extremism, and that may well help push the House back into D hands beginning in January 2025. But that’s fourteen and a half months away from now, and the country and the world will suffer the effects of a radical-right-led House at a time when so much hangs in the balance.
To sum up my mood…we’re getting closer to an answer to Ben Franklin’s challenge (“A republic, if you can keep it) and it ain’t coming out the way we’d hope.
Melancholy open thread.
Image: John Jacob Audubon, Little American Brown Weasel, between 1845-1848
Trump’s Big Day – Oct 16th Is Finally Here
BretH
Bleh.
Raoul Paste
Russia is loving this
Yarrow
Reposting from below:
Princess
Republicans. There are no moderates and they all fall in line.
raven
Weasels ripped my flesh.
smith
Bad flashbacks to 2016, when I couldn’t believe the GQP would choose someone so manifestly unqualified for the post.
Delk
Gym reminds me of an ashtray that has been dumped but not wiped out.
hells littlest angel
Ell oh ell. He seems like a nice man. He does not seem to be much of a prognosticator.
TriassicSands
As I wrote in the previous thread, I won’t be overwhelmingly surprised if Jordan is elected. The stalemate has got to end and Republicans have a long history of falling in line. They pass legislation when the so-called moderates support extreme bills. It’s what they do.
Citizen Alan
My fear: In the end, this is all about making sure that the Freakshow Caucus controls the House in January of 2025 so that they can attempt to throw out the electoral ballots and give the WH to Shitgibbon.
Hoodie
@Princess: There are moderates – or at least those that generally believe in following rules – but they’re all cowards who care more about keeping their careers intact. Jordan has heretofore been a marginal figure, a conspiracy theory mongering nut who hasn’t moved any legislation in 16 years in the House. It’s a hell of a note that the guy they’re going to elect speaker was pretty clearly rejected by the majority of their caucus a little over a week ago. This has been coming for a while, starting back when Boehner was speaker.
TriassicSands
@smith:
It’s a habit. They did so in 2016 and won. They have the majority in the House now, and will likely take the majority back in the Senate next year (the odds are really stacked against the Democrats).
But Jordan as Speaker could result in some eyes being opened to exactly what the GOP has become — the POG (Party of Grievance), and nothing more.
ETA: The best bet to stop Jordan is how few Republicans it takes to stop him. But…
hells littlest angel
OT: It’s official — shut up stupid old man.
teezyskeezy
Like an inverse of the Churchill quote, Republicans in the end will always do the worst thing, after never trying anything but other terrible things first.
Tom Levenson
@hells littlest angel: Having recently attained senior citizen status (why don’t the youngs salute, dammit?), I hope this isn’t directed at me.
tobie
I just called my ultra-conservative, Trump-lovin’ Representative Andy Harris to urge him to vote “no” on Jordan for speaker. I said the world is watching, the reputation of the House has been irredeemably damaged by the shenanigans around the speakership, and that more than ever the House needs to prove that it is filled with serious lawmakers, not flame throwers. I doubt my words will have any effect but I tried to calibrate my message for the recipient.
I don’t think the knots in my stomach will unwind any time soon.
CaseyL
@Tom Levenson: I think hells littlest angel is referring to Chutkan’s gag order on Trump. At least, I hope so.
teezyskeezy
@hells littlest angel: If prognostication means prediction without caveat or humility, then no he’s no prognosticator, that’s true. But he does talk about possibilities a lot of times while admitting high degree of fallibility and uncertainty.
hells littlest angel
@Tom Levenson: No! Check the breaking news banner on your favorite news site.
Tom Levenson
@CaseyL: That’s my guess too. But it’s always good to be sure ;-)
Taken4Granite
@Citizen Alan: It’s the new Congress that officially counts the electoral votes. So while there are certainly nightmare scenarios out there, this isn’t one of them.
Old School
From a “Dear Colleague” letter from Jordan: (PDF)
hells littlest angel
@teezyskeezy: True. This is why I’m lolling at the notion that anyone feel glum over Marshall’s always-hedged, frequently wrong predictions.
TriassicSands
@teezyskeezy:
They’re kind of stuck here, since they don’t have any good candidates for Speaker. So, why not go for the very worst choice? (And the only problem there is actually deciding which Republican would be the absolute worst. Gaetz, Gosar, Gomert, MTG, Boebert, Jordan, ad nauseam.)
Rusty
The two most immediate problems are the debt ceiling and funding for Ukraine. I am sure there is will a lot of crap we have to digest over the next 14 months, but these will be the bright red indicators until the election. I am guessing we get a shut down and no Ukraine funding. The loonies are winning.
trollhattan
Wasn’t Little American Brown Weasel a rap group in the ’90s?
Pwning everybody via the act of pwning themselves is about as complex a scheme as Republicans are able to deploy.
H.E.Wolf
It’s my recollection that the incoming Class of 2022 voted for Speaker in Jan. 2023… so, if Democrats flip the House in Nov. 2024 (increasingly likely, especially if we all put some of our Posting Doom On Blog energy toward GOTV activity), hello Speaker Hakeem Jeffries.
This is not to treat people’s feelings of doom as trivial… merely to remind ourselves that switching from speech to action makes a difference for the better – both to the outcome, and to the mood of the person taking action.
cain
@Citizen Alan: They are going to do the shutdown shenanigans full steam ahead. They are not going to back down either. I think he wants to play chicken with the economy.
Also, if htey are going to keep the same rules in terms of speaker ouster – he might not last in the job.
The man also cannot fundraise – I’m amused that a man who has never done anything – not fundraise or even put a bill is going to be 3rd in line for the presidency.
I think we need to be worried about the safety of the executive branch.
NorthLeft
Yeah, if you are hoping for the most “moderate” Republicans to grow a spine and save the day, I think you should try prayer instead.
But the Dems were absolutely right in helping kick Kevin to the curb. His word was absolutely worthless and he was continually kowtowing to the chaos caucus anyways.
TriassicSands
@teezyskeezy:
The safest prediction is that the Republicans will do the worst thing possible or some close approximation thereof, but it’s hard to predict what complete idiots will do, especially when they have such radically different beliefs than we have.
charon
@H.E.Wolf:
If it’s about voting for President, there are 50 votes, one for the House representatives from each state. So, 26 or more red states, hello Pres. Trump.
Geminid
I hear that Dolly Parton will perform at half-time during the Thanksgiving Cowboys/Commanders football game.
Betty Cracker
Trying to imagine the bellowing lunkhead Jordan serving as Speaker while the Defendant tops the GOP ticket. Oh well. The “heighten the contradictions” theory will get a thorough test.
Nelle
I called my rep, freshman Zach Nunn. He tries to look reasonable, but a vote for Jim Jordan really rips off the mask. I’m recruiting friends to call. We may not be successful, but I have to try to pushback.
TriassicSands
@Betty Cracker:
We can relax, Betty. Should Jordan be elected Speaker, he, like Trump in 2017, will suddenly take the weight of responsibility upon assuming office seriously and begin to act responsibly.
Oh, wait…
hells littlest angel
@Nelle: Well! A positive suggestion rather than helpless hand-wringing. How refreshing!
I too have tried to encourage my not-utterly-crazy Republican congressman to do the right thing (by which I mean, flip).
PPCLI
@Old School: “…beyond the Five Families.”
I think that means that Jordan is going to a Christening while his minions settle all the family business.
Tom Levenson
@Rusty: That’s my expectation and fear.
Alison Rose
@Geminid: Oooh I don’t have cable or streaming, but I’m gonna have to find video of that. I’d love to see her do the Superbowl halftime show. I don’t like country music but I adore Dolly, like all right-thinking humans.
TriassicSands
I’m curious. Has that ever worked in the past? (Who is your representative?)
ETA: And by that I don’t mean to imply that you shouldn’t try. You definitely should. I just wonder if that has ever worked. If is has, that could give more people the impetus to call. My represenative is a Democrat. There is no chance he will support Jordan or any other Republican unless there is some kind of deal the Democrats agree to.
Old School
@Alison Rose: The Cowboys/Commanders game will be on CBS on Thanksgiving, so cable isn’t necessary.
raven
@Alison Rose:
Dolly Parton – Stairway to Heaven
hells littlest angel
@Rusty: The debt ceiling is most definitely not an immediate problem, having been suspended until 1/1/2025. The distinction between the debt ceiling and the federal budget is important.
raven
@Old School: But a TV is
tobie
@Nelle: I called Greg Steube (R-FL) for my mother, after calling my own Republican rep. Steube’s office asked me whom I would want as speaker, and since I wanted this to be a productive call, I didn’t say my real choice Hakeem Jeffries but mentioned Tom Cole (R-OK) instead. Cole’s politics are not mine but at least he’s not the corrupt, lawless clown that Jordan is.
hells littlest angel
@TriassicSands: Has what ever worked in the past? Has a congressperson switched parties after getting one message from one constituent? Who knows? Probably not, but that’s hardly the point.
JPL
Apocalypse Imminent, House Edition
Such an appropriate title. Russia must be so pleased.
Old School
@raven: True. If that is also a limitation, viewing will be more difficult.
Geminid
@Alison Rose: Dolly Parton’s halftime performance might go up on YouTube.
Maybe for just a while. A friend told me that some material doesn’t stay on YouTube for long.
Bill Arnold
@PPCLI:
The Five Families:
– Republican Study Committee
– Problem Solvers Caucus
– Republican Governance Group
– Republican Main Street Caucus
– House Freedom Caucus
Alison Rose
@Old School: I don’t have any kind of television viewing access at all.
catclub
And I am sure Jordan as SOH will fulfill all the promises McQarthy made, and broke, about the budget bills and the debt ceiling.
Barbara
@Citizen Alan: Isn’t the new Congress sworn in before they hold the electoral vote?
Geminid
@tobie: Tom Cole would be an interesting Speaker in that he is a member of the Chickasaw Nation.
Subsole
@raven: Yeah. Looking back, those pulp writers had a disturbing fixation with getting eaten alive…
Yarrow
Jordan is saying he’ll go multiple rounds of voting instead of not going to the floor unless he has the votes. So it could be January and McCarthy part 2.
hells littlest angel
@catclub: The debt ceiling has been suspended by an act of Congress. Biden signed the bill into law on June 1st. It is not a promise, and it can’t be broken.
Geminid
@Barbara: Yes, electing a Speaker will be the first order of business when the new Congress meets in early January of 2025. I’m fairly sure it will be Hakeem Jeffries, on the first ballot.
hells littlest angel
You’re ruining things for people who enjoy worrying about imaginary problems.
sab
Spouse had his weekly Zoom coffee klatch made up folks he has known from high school (class of ’69). Their general feeling is they are glad they are old and sorry for their grandkids.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Re Jordan, you can’t beat something with nothing, and the R caucus has nothing.
TriassicSands
@hells littlest angel:
Specifically, I meant have you ever called your representative and gotten a positive result? As I said, failure is not a reason to not try and try again. I was just curious if you had ever felt you succeeded or helped change a Republican representative’s mind about a vote.
I asked who your representative was so I could check his or her voting record.
And, I’ll repeat, for the third time, failure is not a reason to stop trying, since conditions change and not trying is automatically failure.
teezyskeezy
@TriassicSands: It’s a ratcheting drunkard’s walk. They are kind of randomly stupid but never allowed to go back toward sanity, so they eventually walk off a cliff.
randy khan
My probably not helpful take on this is that if there’s a substantial number of holdouts by the vote (call it 15 or maybe 20 or more), Jordan is not going to become Speaker. If it’s 10 or less, they all eventually will cave. In between those numbers, I don’t know.
hells littlest angel
I can’t imagine the level of self-regard I’d need to feel that. I mean, even if a candidate I’d voted for won an election by one vote, I wouldn’t feel like they won because of my vote.
I apologize for being a bit prickly, but the absurd doominess of this thread is really chafing me.
sab
@raven: Thank you! I love Dolly Parton and I also like Led Zeppelin, but I never expected that.
sdhays
I just don’t understand the total lack of self-respect these assholes have. A few assholes in the party don’t give a shit what the “majority of the majority” votes on and demands their own special candidate. Well, if those are the rules, fuck them. They don’t get their special candidate either.
And all of these fuckers are independently wealthy. None of them have to work another day in their lives. They can all just “nope” out with precious little consequence. But they’re instead just fine with jerked around over and over and over again.
Omnes Omnibus
Deep fucking breaths, everyone. As Joe Strummer said, the future is unwritten.
ETA: Volunteer, donate, call, and/or write postcards. Go for a walk or go to the gym. Have a cup of tea, drink a glass of wine, or smoke a joint. All three, as far as I care. Play with your pets. Then, volunteer, donate, call, and/or write postcards again. Repeat as needed.
Soprano2
@Citizen Alan: But they won’t, because the new House will be sworn in on January 2nd.
piratedan
so Jordan has flipped a few votes from nay to yea, thinking that he’s hoping that will resolve the other 80+ that were against him last week, we’ll see.
If Jordan pulls it off, I suspect that the moderates won’t get the same luxury that the treasonists did with being able to issue a no-confidence vote. Electing Jordan means that they’re going full Fascist, no fig leafs.
hells littlest angel
@Omnes Omnibus: Thank you. (But where were you sixty-plus comments ago? /s)
Citizen Alan
@Soprano2: Okay, several people have said that, so I will try to relax about that. But the fundamental problem is that we only have two parties and one of them is fucking evil and the only people capable of influencing them are MAGA terrorists who are complaining because they aren’t evil enough!
Ohio Mom
@TriassicSands: When I was on a calling my Congressmen kick, I always thought of it as an occasion to educate the intern answering the phone.
The purpose of the call — “I’m a constituent and I want the Senator to vote for/against (fill in the blank) “ is achieved as soon as the intern adds a check mark to the proper column.
But helping the young Republican on the other end of the line understand the history and context of the issue at hand is something else. I like to think I planted a seed or two — research shows that most people need to be introduced to a new concept several times before they are able to incorporate it into their overall understanding (the number of exposures needed correlates somewhat with IQ but of course when it comes to value-laden concepts, there can be emotional resistance slowing things done).
Geminid
@randy khan: I think the clerk calls members in alphabetical order, so Don Bacon (NE) will be called early. He could be a bellwhether.
In 2020, Bacon won an Omaha-based District that Joe Biden carried. Bacon retired as an Air Force general about 10 years ago, and won the seat not long after.
Anoniminous
@Geminid:
Maybe Parton will sing her hit song Jolene:
Jolene, Jolene , Jolene, Jolene;
I’m begging of you please don’t take my man.
Jolene, Jolene , Jolene, Jolene;
Please don’t take him just because you can.
Your beauty is beyond compare
With flaming locks of auburn hair
With ivory skin and eyes of emerald green
For years our town’s been terrorized
By the beast who takes disguise
In the shell that calls itself Jolene
Our sleep disturbed by quaking breath
Eyes closed against the threat of death
That lies behind the teeth of that Jolene
The closer that you get to her
The more those edges seem to blur
To something that cannot be called Jolene
Jolene, Jolene , Jolene, Jolene;
I’m begging of you please don’t take my man.
Jolene, Jolene , Jolene, Jolene;
Please don’t take him just because you can.
He screams about you in his sleep,
And when he wakes does naught but weep,
In terror of the one they call, Jolene.
We cower here beneath your gaze,
That sets the earth and sky ablaze,
Have mercy at the end of days, Jolene.
Before her wrath no foe could stand,
Their corpses piled upon the sand,
The blood of gods are on her hands; Jolene.
Her hunger barely satisfied,
She feasted on the ones who died,
She slumbers now in starless skies; Jolene.
Jolene, Jolene , Jolene, Jolene;
I’m begging of you, please don’t disturb her sleep.
Jolene, Jolene , Jolene, Jolene;
We’re safe while she still slumbers in the deep.
Your teeth are sharp, your mouth agape
Your claws rend flesh, there’s no escape
From judgement of the Eldritch One, Jolene
Blackening the summer skies,
With burning wings and countless eyes,
We tremble at the thought of you, Jolene.
Bliss withered from this awful truth,
Gone is the ignorance of youth,
The unrelenting mark of that Jolene.
Jolene, Jolene , Jolene, Jolene;
I’m begging of you please don’t take my man.
Jolene, Jolene , Jolene, Jolene;
Please don’t take him just because you can.
Yarrow
Vern Buchanan has flipped and will now vote for Jordan.
Yarrow
@sab: I remember hearing the same thing from my grandparents. I think a lot of older people say that sort of thing.
Yarrow
Profiles in cowardice.
TriassicSands
People should be well-informed. Most Americans are not. The problem arises if there is no EC winner. With multiple candidacies for president, were a candidate to win EC votes sufficient to prevent either major party candidate to get a majority, the decision would be made in the House. (George Wallace carried five Southern states – Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and won 45 electoral votes plus one vote from a faithless elector. He came fairly close to receiving enough votes to throw the election to the House of Representatives. Had that happened, Humphrey would have been president, not Nixon. Now, the Republicans would prevail. I very much doubt that will happen next year, but it is not impossible.)
It would not matter who controlled the House, since the Constitution requires that each state get one vote and Republicans control, and are likely to continue to control, the majority of states. Right now, they control 26 states. That would put Trump in the White House.
That is a remote possibility, but not an impossibility. It is better if that possibility is well known before people vote, rather than after. I don’t think any of the “third” party candidates next year are likely to win a state’s EC votes, but, again, it is not impossible.
My attitude has always been, the worse things look, the harder we have to fight. Knowing that bad outcomes are possible should energize people to act, not to give up. Refusing to entertain the possibility of a bad outcome is foolish. If more people had been aware of who and what Donald Trump is in 2016, he might have lost, and prevented what we’re going through now.
Juju
Yick. Also, Gym Jordan looks like Nagilum from Star Trek TNG episode “Where Silence has Lease”.
TriassicSands
@Ohio Mom:
I agree. Another good reason to call.
Yarrow
If Jordan becomes Speaker I wonder how soon the Clooney documentary will drop?
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
I am very unhappy about what this will do to funding for Ukraine. I hope Europe finds a way to step up more than it has, given this war poses the most risks for them.
I also know a shut-down will hurt a lot of people and hurt the economy.
All that being said, I do think this is what the GOP base wants, and that is why their reps are such cowards. They know their voters don’t want bipartisan solutions. They want the circus. I can only hope it backfires and keeps backfiring until they are dispirited and unmotivated. That’s what they want to happen to us. They want us to give up and slink away. Nope. Not today, Satan.
frosty
@tobie: I just called my non-ultra conservative rep, Lloyd Smucker, and urged him not to vote for Jordan (which he said he was going to) and instead work with the Democrats for a speaker who could move legislation.
I used a lot of your language in the call. Thanks!
Suzanne
If it’s any comfort, none of their Speakers last very long. They seem to be changing them as often as they change underwear, at this rate.
TriassicSands
Adding to what was said above. (Omnes Omnibus)
And try to engage with anyone whom you think might not bother to vote to try to convince them of the need for them to stand up and be counted. (Give up immediately, if you think they might vote for a Republican.)
The MAGAts are beyond convincing. I know from trying and finding no willingness to even discuss the issue. But it can’t hurt to point out the failings of Republicans to likely Republican voters.
Over the years, I’ve been quite successful in getting some non-voters to vote. With the appearance of Trump and the general deterioration in attitudes toward “politics,” it has gotten more difficult.
Alison Rose
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Here they go.
Eolirin
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: It’s hard, hate is a powerful motivator. But they’re running face first into a slightly different problem, which is that it’s just as easy to have that hate turned on themselves, and when so much of your party is a bunch of self-interested grifters with no party loyalty it’s very easy for a small number of voices to fracture the entire coalition.
Also the left is genuinely angry now too, but we’re far more united in our anger and have much less of a grifter problem.
Anyway
@Yarrow:
I’ve heard that most people think of the time they were in their early twenties as this “golden” age – when they were young and the world was full of possibility I s’pose.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
Usually when I change my underwear, I have a new pair ready to go.
tobie
@frosty: Thank you for calling Smucker’s office! I wrote my local Democratic Club and asked them to get the word out to membership to hit the phones. Success is unlikely but we should make our voices heard. Isn’t Smucker’s district a potential swing district in PA? I thought so but I could be mistaken.
Chief Oshkosh
@Eolirin:
We also happen to be factually, morally, and ethically correct.
sab
@Anyway: It was, then Reagan got elected when I was 29.
Eolirin
I wish we had the organizational chops to be getting large volumes of calls to vulnerable house members’ offices to not vote for Jordan. I think it has the chance of meaningfully moving the needle. But it needs to be a lot of people.
I’ve got a dem rep, but anyone calling their R rep is very much needed. And to get anyone you can to do the same. The only counter lobbying we can do as dems is through constituent pressure.
hells littlest angel
@TriassicSands: What I was mocking was the assumption that Jordan will necessarily be the Speaker of the House on 1/6/2025 — if indeed he is ever the Speaker. I agree that it’s important to recognize possible outcomes, but they should be fretted about in the order of their likelihood. A bunch of Chicken Littles running around spreading hopelessness is not productive. I mean, we’ve got people here squawking about the debt ceiling! I think it’s much more worrisome that readers of a political blog can’t remember major events of just a few months ago than that the country will go to hell if we roll snake-eyes half a dozen consecutive times.
Villago Delenda Est
This belongs in the last thread, but the last thread is old and moldy by now, so I’m posting it here. Prime quotes from today’s discussion in Judge Chutkan’s courtroom:
hells littlest angel
I can never find the hysterically laughing emoji when I need it.
Alison Rose
@frosty: I wonder if he gets prank calls asking for jam.
FelonyGovt
@Old School: The Five Families sounds like some kind of Mafia terminology. Which I guess is not too far from the truth- except the Mafia is well organized.
Almost Retired
@Alison Rose: He will now. I’m bored at work.
Villago Delenda Est
@Juju: Nagilum libelz!
sab
@Ohio Mom: Such a good idea. If we don’t teach the kids no one will.
The Thin Black Duke
After a while, even popular reality TV shows lose their audience when the same old storylines are recycled and there are no surprises left anymore. Eventually, the circus in the House will get boring and voters are going to want people who know how to keep the lights on to do their jobs.
TriassicSands
@hells littlest angel:
The chances of Jordan being Speaker on 1/6/2025 are probably far less if he is the Speaker in 10/2023. So far, no one’s been able to name a plausible Republican Speaker in this House. Plausible meaning both capable of doing a responsible job and able to win election.
I can’t say it enough times. The worse things look, the harder we have to fight and the more we have to do to convince others that giving up is ridiculous. But I feel very strongly that we have to be absolutely realistic about the chances of success and failure. Upsets can happen, but not if no effort is made.
And about earlier — it had nothing to do with your feelings of self-regard, I just wondered if you had ever called and the resulting vote changed. Obviously, one call is not going to change a rep’s vote. And failure is not a reason to not try. True failure is not trying at all. And Ohio Mom had a good secondary reason to call, beyond changing a vote.
Soprano2
@Citizen Alan: Well yeah, that’s definitely a problem.
Eolirin
@The Thin Black Duke: Sure, but will we still have a country by then?
Bill Arnold
A useful heuristic:
Don’t worry about possible future events where your estimate of the probability that they will happen is less than your estimate of the probability that you are crazy.
E.g. don’t worry about a Zombie Apocalypse.
Impossible things (“Content of Media”, 2016)
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Ohio Mom: What technique do you use for educating them? I’m curious about how you approach it.
hells littlest angel
Okay, understood, but there’s still no meaningful way to answer that. I would have to know the person’s intention prior to the call, and then somehow be able to determine a causal relationship if in fact there was any change. Even thinking about that would lead me to be less inclined to act.
Oh, and … Molinaro.
Omnes Omnibus
@Eolirin: Yes.
Belafon
@TriassicSands: Gotta squeeze some blood out of that doom rock, huh?
tobie
@The Thin Black Duke: Wise words.
jonas
What’s this assclown talking about? Judges impose gag orders all the time in cases where one or both parties and/or their lawyers need to keep their mouths shut (and fingers off the phone) to have a fair trial. What he means is that “my client is special and should get to do whatever he wants.”
Sounds like Chutkan rolled her eyes into the next state.
NoraLenderbee
@Bill Arnold: I thought they were the Gambinos, the Colombos, the Luccheses, the Genoveses, and the Bonnanos.
Omnes Omnibus
@hells littlest angel: When I call Ron Johnson’s office I have no expectations that I will change his mind on anything. I just want him to know that people oppose him and that every shitty thing he does is being remembered. And, if I make a staff member uncomfortable (without being rude),I am okay with that. OTOH, when I call my D reps, I make sure I thank the staffers for all the work they do.
Bill Arnold
@NoraLenderbee:
Yep!
They’re Not Joking: House Republicans Actually Compare Themselves to the Mob – They call themselves the Five Families. Here’s a guide to how each family may (or may not) foul up negotiations on the debt limit. (Timothy Noah, March 27, 2023)
This WaPo piece has a graphic:
Meet ‘the five families’ that wield power in McCarthy’s House majority (Adrian Blanco, Marianna Sotomayor and Hannah Dormido, March 24, 2023)
Omnes Omnibus
@Bill Arnold: Um, what if I am crazy? What then?
Villago Delenda Est
@Omnes Omnibus:
I used to work for a local phone company which had offices on the same floor as Peter DeFazio. Every so often I’d wander down there to make some sort of comment or an actual complaint, and was always sure to thank the staffer who paid attention to me. DeFazio had this wonderful reputation of putting constituent service first, unlike say Eric Cantor, who was busy being performative all the time.
H.E.Wolf
@charon:
Rowing people across the Styx would give anyone a pessimistic outlook on things!
Omnes O. at comment 68 has some good suggestions for those who are feeling fraught.
I’m going to keep working on GOTV and asking myself, what would Fannie Lou Hamer want me to do in times like these.
Alison Rose
@Omnes Omnibus: No worries.
smith
OK, here’s a little chuckle to lighten the mood: Biden’s campaign has opened an account on Truth Social and have been posting their ads featuring Rs saying things favorable to Joe. I’m sure it will be banhammered within a day, but I love the cheek of it.
Villago Delenda Est
@smith: This is wonderful! Biden’s got a good social media team.
cain
@Omnes Omnibus:
I’m not remotely concerned. They elect that clown as speaker and it is their own throats they are going to cut. The man is a fire breather and that’s about it. He’ll keep making the GOP look like the clowns they are.
Redshift
@FelonyGovt:
That’s exactly what it is. If GOP reps had any self-respect, an appeal that claims he wants to bring everyone together and then compares the previous leadership to the Mafia would torpedo his chances immediately. But of course they don’t.
TriassicSands
@Belafon:
That’s an utterly meaningless comment to me. Should I call someone Pollyanna? I wouldn’t, because that, too, would be meaningless.
Eolirin
@Omnes Omnibus: Sorry in case this wasn’t clear, I wasn’t making a comment about our short term politicial fortunes with that, I’m suggesting that it’ll take long enough for that to happen that we’ll all be dead anyway.
I really don’t think the Republican voters are going to get bored of dysfunction and give up on account of it in a time frame that matters. They’re running on hate not spectacle.
smith
@cain: The other small consolation is that he has probably agreed to continue the one-person MTV rule, which means that less crazy Rs, if there are any, could hold him hostage the way the treason caucus held McCarthy, especially knowing the Dems could hold the balance of power in any motion to vacate. I don’t think putting Gym in the chair will in any way paper over the cracks in the party.
Redshift
@jonas:
Like most of the things TFG and his lawyers say when not under oath, this is for campaign purposes, not an actual legal argument. That’s why he called it censorship – to signal to wingnuts, who now believe not being allowed to say whatever the hell they want in any forum, public or private, is censorship.
Jamey
So if it takes only one motion to vacate and the GOP already blames Dems, why don’t Dems just vote out Jordan and make him and the Rs Groundhog Day this shit till Kingdom Come?
Eventually they’ll get the message. Right?
teezyskeezy
@TriassicSands: Yeah I don’t get it either. Trump Presidency II will be an existential threat to democracy (from the horse’s mouth), the last two elections were way too close given how bad Trump actually was, and Biden is polling worse now than then, but yeah, reminding people what’s at stake and that every vote counts is “doomerism.” Okay….
matt
On top of the ill effects mentioned in the post, I think we shouldn’t underestimate the kind of lesson this teaches the rest of the GOP caucus and political class.
Villago Delenda Est
@teezyskeezy: The polls a year out mean nothing, and without knowing the methodology behind the, even more meaningless. Remember that the 1948 election was badly skewed in the polls because the pollsters were relying on land lines to gather data, and that skewed them towards Dewey.
Bill Arnold
@teezyskeezy:
What is your estimate of the probability of a Trump Presidency 2?
And way more important, what are you doing to lower that probability?
I’m seeing a guy who scored a mugshot in one felony case, and is also a defendant in 3 other felony cases.
With a solid chance of severe financial difficulties in the near future.
catclub
…. but, but, but nothing beats a good blowjob.
Eolirin
@smith: They can’t, because they’re not bomb throwers. If he gets in Jordan would need to do something extremely fucked up for them to put the caucus back into this situation. Any threat to him will continue to come exclusively from the far right flank. It’ll be the same people who deposed McCarthy that’ll make any moves to get rid of the next speaker if the motion to vacate rule stays as is.
Without a bipartisan power sharing agreement, there is no way to fund the government, as a result. Those 8 aren’t going to support allowing the Senate appropriations to be the template for funding bills, or for anything of significance to pass with Democratic votes.
Jordan failing so that House Rs are desperate enough to cut a deal with Democrats is the only way forward that allows congress to function. If that doesn’t happen we’re going to be in for a world of hurt in the immediate term, but if the public places the blame in the right place, we hopefully end up there anyway. And then win big in 2024.
Eolirin
@Jamey: Still need a majority to succeed at the motion. If Jordan has the votes to become speaker he has the votes to survive a motion to vacate, in the short term at least.
smith
@Jamey: The Dems won’t originate a MTV — I can’t imagine anything that would unite the Republicans faster than that would.
teezyskeezy
@Villago Delenda Est: It doesn’t mean “nothing.” It’s not zero information. It’s telling you currently the administration has a PR problem that needs to change before next year. Of course the polling *can* change drastically in a year depending on many factors, so the uncertainty with regard to 2024 is very very high, but it does reflect the current mood of the electorate which if unchanged will start to be a little concerning come next year.
smith
I think an extended shutdown might do it, especially as we get into campaign season and challengers from both sides remind voters who is responsible for it.
MazeDancer
Jordan will be part of the Gang of 8. And will be pipeline to Putin via Trump.
NoraLenderbee
@Bill Arnold:
OMG. They’re serious.
teezyskeezy
@Bill Arnold: You ask me to assign probability, implying that it is impossible, and yes, I agree that it is all highly uncertain and that’s kind of the point. There is no evidence *right now* to suggest it won’t be another dangerously close election and every vote is going to matter. True, you can’t look at a poll today and confidently say that will reflect the will of the electorate in 2024, but it does at least show you a lot of people right now regard this as a normal election between Dems and Republicans, even after all the indictments, and that seems crazy to me.
NutmegAgain
Depressing, and unfair to weasels. Like the recent NPR/ProPublica story on Leonard Leo, too upsetting to try and absorb (at least for me). IDK if being maximally hateful is a goal, or just, you know a feature not a bug.
Alison Rose
@NutmegAgain:
Rotating tag.
TriassicSands
@Bill Arnold:
Let me counter with: What was your estimate of a Trump presidency 1?
Never, never mistake the perversity (ignorance, racism, irrationality, etc.) of the American electorate.
What are Trump’s chances next year? That depends on things we don’t know now, but assuming convictions in his trials is risky. All it takes is one juror our of twelve to prevent conviction. What happens if the Middle East blows up into a wider war? There are too many variables. But I think it is a grave mistake to assume that Trump can’t be elected in 2024. Biden probably has a better chance to beat Trump than at least one or two other possible candidates. But, sadly, i think that is more because of how bad Trump is than how accurately Americans appreciate the job Biden has done.
I think it is fair to say that almost everyone “knew” that Clinton was going to beat Trump in 2016. And then her emails and the widespread coverage, not to mention Comey. I don’t care how bad a pollster’s methodology is, given all we’ve seen of Trump he ought to be trailing Biden by 20-30 points. At least. Actually, there should be zero chance he’d even be nominated. But here we are. Do you predict he’ll lose by even 10% if he runs?
Renie
Anyone surprised Jordan and his staff have to use bullying tactics to get people to vote for him
Cameron
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” – Mencken
I’m not laughing.
cain
@smith: Jordan’s plan is to act like a dictator. He’s going to go
nazigestapo on all of them and try to rule with an iron hand. Good luck with that.TriassicSands
@Renie:
Yes, I am shocked! SHOCKED, I SAY!!!
feebog
If Jordan is elected, McCarthy will go down as the second worst Speaker of the House, so there’s that.
rikyrah
@MazeDancer:
This is entirely the worst thing about him being Speaker. You speak no lies.
Bupalos
We would have been better off with McCarthy. If R’s get Jordan in, we’re in a worse place and we fucked up.
Of course, if their whole caucus is willing to go here it means we were in a worse place than we knew at the time as well.
smith
@cain: I’m sure he will, but even if he manages to cow a majority of Rs in the House, the uncompromising approach of Jordan and his comrades will still lead to paralysis in government, and that will make any vulnerable Rs very, very nervous.
As an example, say he can prevail on the Rs to pass the treason caucus’s budget, with massive cuts to popular programs. How are the House and Senate differences going to be resolved? The answer is, they won’t. The R extremists don’t compromise, period. The media will try to bothsides that as usual, but this is an election year coming up. There will be lots and lots of means to let voters know just what pain the Rs are holding out for. Will the vulnerable Rs in Congress continue to unquestioningly bend to Jordan’s iron fist? I’m guessing not.
rikyrah
I really would like an answer. How do you all eat overnight oats? Seriously…when did cold oatmeal become a thing? I look at those meal prep videos with overnight oats and I am disgusted. part of the best part about oatmeal, is it being warm and comforting.
CaseyL
@rikyrah: I didn’t know cold oatmeal was now a “thing,” and would have been very happy to never know that.
If people want to eat a cold cereal, eat cold cereal, not…chilled oatmeal, ugh.
ETA: Just occurred to me that “overnight oatmeal”might just be a way to more conveniently cook pinhead oats, by leaving them in the fridge overnight rather than having to boil them for half an hour or more. Do you know if they heat the oatmeal up before eating it?
ETA2: I use an instant pot to cook pinhead oats, and it still takes a long time because I let it vent naturally.
artem1s
so Gym started out by saying he was going to wait until he had 217 to hold the vote – now he’s going to force it on -what Wednesday? I think there is about a 95% chance he can’t get to Wednesday without breaking another promise to the caucus. None of them believe he’s changed and some already have noticed he’s already using his usual bullying and threat tactics and screaming to get his way. There is no way he can restrain himself and use measured arguments to get to 217. Watch, he’s gonna end up delaying the Wed vote and then withdrawing his name just like Scalise.
CaseyL
@artem1s: Considering that at last report, Jordan had whittled the opposition down to 10 or even 8, he might figure giving his pressure tactics another day will take care of the last holdouts.
smith
@CaseyL: Also, bringing it to the floor, even if he doesn’t make it the first time, makes his opponents’ votes public, and increases the opportunities to pressure them via constituents or potential primary challenges. Not sure how that plays with members from Biden+ districts, though.
Bill Arnold
@teezyskeezy:
Not impossible, obviously. But in play, with an advantage for Democrats. Mainly because of the upcoming Trump Trials shitshows, concurrent with the GOP choosing their candidate for POTUS.
TriassicSands
@CaseyL:
If Jordan has really gotten the opposition down to 10 or fewer, that is once again evidence that no matter how outrageous the issue, Republicans fall in line. They have no character, ethics, or moral center.
Republicans can continue to look incompetent and hapless or they can elect a Speaker…any Speaker. My guess would be that the opposition to Jordan is largely based on what a jerk he is (being generous) and not his politics, since when Republicans pass outrageous legislation, the so-called moderates support it.
Subsole
@catclub:
Minor point, but if it’s getting beat, it’s a handjob. Not a blowjob.
Subsole
@Alison Rose:
Second.
Subsole
@rikyrah:
Simple: I don’t.
Because it ain’t bacon, it doesn’t come with gravy, and why in God’s name would you eat oatmeal when you could have grits instead?
George
I may be late to the game with this comment, but under no circumstances would MAGAs in the House have allowed Hakeem Jeffries to have a successful speakership. To allow that would be for the entire GOP to admit it cannot govern at all.
Democrats would have remained targets of the Freedom Caucus and its sympathizers, and any dysfunction that would occur between Jeffries being elected as Speaker of the House and the elections next year would be pinned on Democrats.
sab
@rikyrah: What is wrong with a double boiler? I set mine up the night before with water below and oats up top. First think in a.m. I add water up top with the oats, then turn on the burner under my teakettle or my coffee percolater, and my oats, and in half an hour have warm breakfast. So easy.
People make stuff so complicated.
Ivan X
I’ve just chosen to accept defeatism, uncertainty, and fatalism. It’s a defense against hopelessness and futility.
Ruckus
@Tom Levenson:
Don’t know how recently or how overboard you went to get there but I, while not as far along as some here, am working on 3/4 of a century. First the only salute you are going to get is an ignore. Second, you are just part of the group that they won’t hope to join, until it is past their time and they find out it’s the only group left. Oh wait, I forgot, there is really, really old fart. That takes a not insignificant fraction of a 1/4 century longer.