Hi, All — mistermix checking in because the biggest story of 2023 hasn’t been covered yet on this fine blog. In case you haven’t heard, Lauren Boebert decided to commit political suicide by changing Congressional districts. She’s going to run for seat in CO-4 vacated by the retirement of Ken Buck instead of trying to beat Adam Frisch in her home district of CO-3. Frisch is the Democrat who came within 543 votes of beating her last time, and he has a huge lead in fundraising going into 2024.
Let’s take a quick peek at the anemic numbers that Boebert has posted so far. As of the end of September, she reported $2.4 million raised versus Frisch’s $7.7 mil. She’s also spent a good part of what she raised ($1.7 mil), probably on stupid DC consultants who think that voters will reward a chickenshit weasel move like the one she’s making. I’m going to guess that the next quarterly fundraising numbers will be similarly grim for Boebert, since she decided to cut and run a few days before they’re due.
Now let’s look at the map:
CO-4 and CO-3 cover vastly different territory. CO-4’s rural Republicans are prairie rednecks who mainly farm the dry land over there — it’s basically Western Kansas and Nebraska. CO-3’s rural Republicans are mountain rednecks on the Western Slopes where there are a lot of ski resorts, fruit orchards and high desert. CO-3 is geographically larger than CO-4, and it includes two good-sized towns (Pueblo and Grand Junction), because a good part of CO-4’s population consists of the redder parts of the crowded Front Range suburbs. So, both of the more populous areas of these districts have different interests, not that Boebert would care. Boebert’s home town (Silt, near Glenwood Springs) is a solid 4 hour drive from the edge of CO-4. In other words, it’s not like she’s in a district in the Brooklyn and decided to move over to one in Queens.
That all said, Boebert is pretty well-funded for a Republican primary candidate in an open seat election. Her Republican opponents haven’t reported any fundraising yet, and she will probably have at least $2 mil to throw into shit-talking ads. But being a shit-talker isn’t a good look when you have a four-year record of not doing shit. Frisch almost beat Boebert by highlighting her non-record of all talk and no action. I’m guessing her Republican primary opponents, who have been waiting years for Buck to retire, are going to do the same.
Though I’ve heard some analysis saying this might be bad news for Democrats, since Frisch will now probably face an at least half-sane Republican opponent who isn’t on video feeling up their significant other at a concert, I’m not convinced. I’ve CO-3 is a R+7 district, which is a tough push, but at least now we’re going to see if a well-funded Democrat running in a Presidential (higher turnout) year can flip a Trump district. I’ll be watching that race closely. Also, if Boebert does win the primary in CO-4, she’s going to draw in a lot of money for that race, making what should be an uncompetitive race in a R+13 district at least interesting. If she pulls off a primary upset, I’ll be taking a close look at Douglas, Adams and Arapahoe counties to see if the better-educated voters in those Front Range suburbs are going to tolerate an idiot like Boebert.
If you’ve read this far, I guess the moral of the hopefully final chapter in her political story is that Boebert is running true to form: as a coward. She, like most Trumpian hate-talkers, runs away at the first sign of a real fight.
(I forgot that I had called that she’d be in trouble in 2022, but I did.)
Geminid
I wonder if other Republicans told Boebert she had an easy path to the 4th CD nomination, just to get rid of her.
Ben Cisco
Sounds like she’ll be off the stage soon. GOOD.
J. Arthur Crank
Full disclosure: In junior high school I had a crush on someone who went on to run in the recent Democratic primary in the CO-3 district. Their slogan and their literature consisted of variations of “Christ, what an asshole!”.
Alison Rose
It’s okay, if she loses, that just means she’ll have more time to spend with her fake boobs, oops I mean her family.
TaMara
As I said elsewhere – CO-4 is the trumpiest of trump districts. The primary field is full of trumpers, white supremacists, and bimbert. They make Ken Buck look sane (he’s not and he’s also a thief and an election denier until he wasn’t, until he was again, and then wasn’t…). It’s going to be a race to the bottom for what is basically a lifetime seat. So if, because of her name recognition and her fealty to Trump that gets her a pass to the general, we’ll be stuck with her forever.
As someone who is thankfully no longer in CO-4, (because of redistricting) may god have mercy on the Dems repped in that district. I feel their pain.
Ben Cisco
@Alison Rose: SNORT
West of the Cascades
The scriptwriters were really telegraphing this outcome when they made her hail from a town called Silt.
scav
Ahh, she’ll do a quick rebrand and call it the MAHA Hejira! and propose building the reworked calendar dates from it.
Skippy-san
The problem is the 3rd will now probably go Republican, and it’s not guaranteed Boebert will get the nomination in the 4th.
Geminid
@West of the Cascades: They say Silt residents have grit.
H.E.Wolf
Electoral-vote.com had an excellent, very detailed article about this yesterday, including some information about Democratic candidate Frisch’s chances in CO-03.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2023/Items/Dec28-3.html
trollhattan
Her campaign strategy ATM is to buy three new gunz and squeeze out a babbee in the back seat of her pickup, on TikTok. Winning!
HumboldtBlue
@Skippy-san:
Adam Frisch will have something to say about that.
Skippy-san
@HumboldtBlue: “Clearly, a lot of the Frisch votes in 2022 were Never Boebert votes. With someone else as the opponent, those could go away. And without those, it’s not going to be easy for a Democrat to win an R+9 district.”
Kent
I don’t see any way she wins in eastern CO. That is completely different country. I drove combines out there when I was young. It is indistinguishable from western Kansas or western Nebraska. They will elect some hayseed farmer type with a battered pickup truck who can talk intelligently about commodity wheat prices and the weather. Or some farm mom type who talks about castrating hogs like Joni Ernst.
The only real question is whether Dems can win the 3rd and whether this makes it easier or harder to do so.
The one good thing about this is that Boebert will soon fade from our consciousness just like say Madison Cawthorn. Remember him? Nope?
Alison Rose
In nicer political news, some pretty good new laws going into effect in CA in 2024.
SB 700 prohibits an employer from requesting information from an applicant’s prior cannabis use. AB 2188 prohibits employers from discriminating against a worker or applicant based on their use of cannabis off the job and away from the workplace.
California’s minimum wage overall will increase to $16 dollars an hour when the new year begins because of a state law that requires the minimum wage to adjust for inflation. Later this year, other job sectors will see even bigger bumps. In April, AB 1228 will go into effect to raise the minimum wage of fast-food workers to $20 an hour. In June, because of SB 525, some health care workers will begin seeing increases to their minimum wage depending on the type of facility they work in, to eventually reach a $25 minimum wage for the entire industry by 2033.
SB 2 places new limits on concealed carry firearm permit holders, while AB 28 imposes an 11% tax on firearms and ammunition to help fund violence prevention programs.
SB 673 – Establishes the “Ebony Alert” for missing young Black women and children.
AB 360 – Prohibits “excited delirium” from being considered a medical diagnosis or valid cause of death, which has been used by coroners in other states, including Minnesota for the classification of the death of George Floyd.
AB 12 – Starting in July, prohibits landlords from charging more than one month’s rent for a security deposit.
SB 345, which sets legal protections for healthcare providers who mail abortion pills or gender-affirming prescriptions out of state. SB 385 allows physician’s assistants to do surgical abortions without the direct supervision of a doctor. For those mourning a reproductive loss, SB 848 requires employers to provide five days of time off for workers who went through the loss, including a miscarriage, stillbirth, or unsuccessful embryo transfer, insemination or adoption.
Mike in NC
Boebert is a relatively young woman with (I think) four sons. Apparently she neither believes in gun control nor birth control.
Betty Cracker
I know nothing about CO politics, but damn I hope she loses. She’s an embarrassment to the entire country.
Nettoyeur
@Mike in NC: She is 36. Her 17 yr old son just fathered a child. So she had him at 19…and he might not have been her first child.
Geminid
@Kent: There’s a rancher/State Rep. in the race named Holthorp. It sounds like he will be Boebert’s toughest primary opponent.
The other candidates are pretty squirrely, so they ought to have some interesting debates. Boebert had people laughing at her in last year’s primary debate, when she accused her opponent of having “alternate motors” for a vote he made as a state Senator. She clearly meant “ulterior motives.”
Ohio Mom
@HumboldtBlue: I do worry about Frisch’s support (boths financial and votes) that represent Never Boberts — that probably will dry out now.
Bur Kudos to him for the effort and running Bobert out of district. If all he accomplishes is ending her Congressional career, he’ll have done a great deal for the future of the nation.
Dangerman
FTFY. Soon to be going, going, gone goon.
Kirk
Boebert is a woman. In that district, that’s an extra burden to overcome — especially among the Republicans.
As an indicator, last time I looked there were no female county commissioners in Ken Buck’s district.
bk
She doesn’t have to live in her new district? I am sure that it needs a new crappy restaurant.
bk
@Alison Rose: “AB 12 – Starting in July, prohibits landlords from charging more than one month’s rent for a security deposit.” Whoa!!
TaMara
@Skippy-san: You left out the rest of the quote, which states the republicans in the primary are basically unknown and there’s like 3 days to come up with a “known” candidate. So his chances, while not as good against as bimbert, are still doable if we keep up the pressure.
Kirk
@bk: Nope. Federal requirement is residence in state at time of taking the oath of office.
gene108
@Nettoyeur:
She had her first child at 17, which is why she dropped out of high school.
Boebert could’ve been a really inspirational story of beating the odds*, but unfortunately the protagonist is such an asshole she garners no sympathy or respect from the audience.
*How many teenage mom high school dropouts got elected to Congress before her? I can’t think of any.
Mel
@Alison Rose: That is good news! Thanks for the heads up.
My niece-in-law and nephew and their little ones recently moved to Ca., and even though I miss them all like crazy, every bit of good California news fills me with relief that they made the move.
waspuppet
@Kent: She took over from him as the leader of the House Republican Literally Could Not Get Another Job Caucus.
No one currently in American public life has bigger I’ll Do Whatever I Have To But As God Is My Witness I Am NOT Going Back To That #*&$hole I Came From Energy than Boebert, and this district switch is more evidence of her determination to stay in the limelight a few more months.
Trivia Man
@Alison Rose: And traffic stops can no longer start with “do you know why i pulled you over?” They must start with “i pulled you over because…”
Some exception made for an urgent ir imminent danger situation, but even those are required to clearly state the initial reason for the stop on the FIRST submission of the paperwork. This strikes me as an excellent step in police accountability.
gene108
@Ohio Mom:
Boebert’s a less cunning and higher profile MAGA than folks like Mike Johnson. I’d prefer a Republican Party made up of dysfunctional politicians like her than one that has enough clever cunning creeps to make them truly dangerous.
Geminid
@Kirk: My Representative got redistricted out of the Virginia 7th District and still ran and won last year. But Abigail Spanberger’s house in Glen Allen was just 20 miles outside the new 7th District, and it did not seem to be an issue. It won’t be this year, because she is not running for reelection but has entered the 2025 Governor’s race instead.
Miss Bianca
@TaMara:
IKR?? When Ken Buck starts looks reasonable compared to the rest of the grifters, tramps, and thieves that populate the current CO GOP, that’s a bad, bad sign…
I just hope the *local* grifters, tramps, and thieves get PO’d about her claim-jumping moves and bust Boobert out of our misery for
goodat least a little while, anyway…Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
OT but politics.
I ran across a news story about some Florida officials hurriedly resigning because of a newly enacted financial disclosure law. Did you post anything about this? It seems like a good idea and I was surprised to see that DeSantis happily signed the bill into law. But the reaction to the law was funny.
Kirk
Frisch will (probably) be facing one of:
Curtis McCrackin, a real estate broker/housing contractor from Cedarridge, CO; /or/
Jeffrey Hurd, a commercial/regulatory law attorney from Grand Junction; /or/
Russ Andrews, financial adviser from Glennwood.
All are batshit. All are self-financing as of right now, but with Boebert out at least one is going to get party assistance. If I had to put a marker right now it would be Hurd, as he’s picked up several state party member endorsements.
Miss Bianca
@Alison Rose: Oh, wow…sometimes I wish I lived in California.
At least our state leg in Colorado has been making some great gains.
The Lodger
@Kent: In CO 4 going west, you can’t even see mountains until you hit Limon, which is about in the center of the district. It’s basically South Nebraska with a skyline to match.
Geminid
@Miss Bianca: How is your new Democratic Representative doing? Is she a keeper?
smith
@Miss Bianca: CA acts as a bellwether for a lot of positive changes that eventually filter out to the saner states, so I think the rest of us should be cheered by what they’re doing, and start pressuring our own states to follow suit. States like MS will never go along, but that just means they fall further behind, and become less attractive as places to live.
Miss Bianca
@Geminid: She’s a real workhorse – a very welcome change from Boebert! So glad we got redistricted out of CD-3!
Miss Bianca
@Kirk: I was starting to hear about Hurd a lot more than the others pretty early on, so barring some other better-known candidate jumping in at the last minute, I’m guessing he’ll get the nomination.
Skippy-san
@Ohio Mom: Amen!
Alison Rose
@Trivia Man: That’s good because usually when they ask, it’s fucking ridiculous. When I got pulled over doing 92 on the freeway (I was young and dumb, and also I’d been doing over 100 a couple minutes earlier, when I was even younger and dumber), the cop literally asked me “do you know why I pulled you over” and it took all my powers of self-restraint not to say “Oh gee, I fucking wonder”.
Alison Rose
@bk: It honestly should be less, considering the inane amounts they charge upon move-out. I got charged $150 one time for cleaning the blinds. Note: They were not broken or bent at all. There were no stains of any kind. They were literally just dusty. That’s it. $150. So I feel like at most they should be allowed to charge half a month’s rent, and there should be limits on what they can charge for various cleaning tasks after a tenant leaves.
Skippy-san
@TaMara I still have seen the district moved from “toss-up” to “leans Republican.” Plenty of whackjob GOP folks on that side of the state.
Kent
And it is flat as a pancake western plains indistinguishable from western Kansas until you actually get to the Denver suburbs.
Geminid
@Miss Bianca: That’s good to hear.
I also lucked out in redistricting when Greene County got moved from Bob Good’s 5th District into Abigail Spanberger’s 7th CD. I really like Spanberger, but Good makes my skin crawl; just a nasty man.
kindness
It is my sincerest hope that Boebert lose her primary. Why you may ask? Not to be a liberal laughing at other’s hardships but members of Congress get lifetime benefits (retirement pay and health insurance) after they’ve served 5 years. Boebert will have only served 4.
Bwaahahaha!
Geminid
@Miss Bianca: Bob Good is the new chairman of the Freedom Caucus, but he’s being primaried by a state delegate who calls him a RINO.
frosty
@Alison Rose: I had a landlord keep my deposit because the oven wasn’t clean. I had never used the oven, never even opened the door.
When I moved in, the linoleum floor was covered with muddy footprints that I cleaned up. Security deposits are a racket.
David ⛄ 🎅The Establishment🎄 🦌 🕎 Koch
It’s showtime!
trollhattan
@Nettoyeur: Like the Palins, only without the charm.
Alison Rose
@frosty: They are. I really don’t think basic cleaning should even be part of it. The deposit should be for actual damage — holes in the wall, broken window, etc. Not for dusting or Swiffering the floor or whatever.
Wag
Thanks for the good rundown about Boebert. I was wondering when this news was going to be front paged. I wonder if Boebert won’t run a half-ass primary race, spending very little money, in hopes of rolling over her campaign funds to live a nice lifestyle going forward.
Denali5
@trollhattan:
Actually, I never found the Palins charming.
Tony G
I have a niece who lives and works in Boebert’s (former) district. I’m sure that she’ll be relieved if she is represented by a normal human being instead of that lunatic.
RevRick
@Skippy-san: The Cook Report moved CO-3 from tossup to lean Republican. Personally, I wouldn’t give a dime more to Frisch. Our focus should be funding the candidates in the 18 Biden districts with GOP representatives.
Quaker in a Basement
Closer to 3 hours. Google maps puts driving time from Silt to Highlands Ranch at 2 hours, 55 minutes.
Quaker in a Basement
@Kirk: State party endorsements aren’t worth much when the state party is broke.
Chris T.
@Trivia Man:
Good, because that’s a horrible question, along the lines of “have you stopped beating your wife”. About the only possible answer is “Why no, sir, I don’t. Why do you ask, have you forgotten or was it just on a whim?”
This, of course, will get you beaten up, perhaps to death…