I haven’t even begun to process all of this information, but it’s good stuff (once you get past the scary slides about how hot temps are and how much glacier ice we’ve lost – YIKES! – but power through that!)
David Roberts
@drvoltsLet me join literally everyone else from #energytwitter in strongly encouraging you to flip through @NatBullard’s latest presentation on the global state of the clean energy transition. An extraordinary amount of information in a compact form.
( TaMar’s Note – here’s the link to his actual tweet thread if you want to read it on Twitter in case thread reader just made it more difficult to follow)
Dr Volts continues: I’m going to pull out a few slides and make a few points. These are not necessarily the most important slides, just my personal triggers.
First: “team transitory” turned out to be correct, yes? That’s settled?
What technology is going to be most commonly used to firm up renewable energy? This slide suggests a pretty clear answer.
Remember when US conservatives threw a big tantrum about the shift away from incandescent light bulbs? It didn’t matter. Didn’t slow things down a bit.
Their bitching about gas stoves & ICE vehicles won’t matter either. Our media makes them loud, but they just don’t matter.
One underdiscussed development was the *huge* dropoff in hydropower production in 2023, thanks to some droughts. It heavily distorted the macro energy numbers (almost wiped out wind+solar growth!). Hydro is, somewhat contrary to its branding, more variable than we’d like.
Is minerals/metals supply going to be a meaningful constraint on the clean-energy transition? I’m looking at this graph and I’m thinking, no.
Grid congestion is rapidly rising to the top of clean energy’s problem list. We need: reconductoring; grid-enhancing technologies; new transmission; more & better coordinated DERs.
FERC & state PUCs need to get on top of this.
Nat’s slides show costs plunging for one clean energy technology after another. But not this one.
And this is the one oil & gas companies are pinning all their decarbonization hopes on! It’s a farce.
There is a ton of other good information in the presentation – it’s 200 slides, so just be prepared.
Some other fun info that popped up while I was reading Dr. Volts:
Every day I see stories about how badly EVs are suffering and how the market is ‘cooling’
I’ve ‘never’ read a piece about the fact ICE sales peaked and have *declined 7 straight years*
Weird 😏 pic.twitter.com/iv071TNTj0
— Justin Guay (@Guay_JG) February 1, 2024
Also, I know we’ve had some discussions about excessive EV battery fires – turns out – more myth than fact – link here (this is a good primer to a lot of info I’ve read over the past few months – due to my concerns about a recall on my vehicle, which has thankfully been repaired, phew!)
There is some interesting info on recycling batteries here – I’ve only just skimmed it, but I’ll pass on the link now.
David Roberts
We are just now entering the S-curve of exponential electric vehicle (EV) adoption, which — given that EV batteries tend to last 10 to 15 years — means we have not yet experienced a huge wave of retired lithium-ion batteries. Analysts expect that wave to show up in earnest around 2030, which leaves us just enough time to scale up, drive down the cost, and perhaps most importantly, decarbonize the technologies needed to recycle all those batteries.
I have bunch climate stuff set aside, and it’s going to be my “good news” focus for a while, I just need to figure out the best way to present it and how often. I may just jump in next week and we’ll take it one post at a time.
I want to tell you about the Kia EV9 – but I’ll wait for another thread, where I can explain why it’s exciting, if way out of my price range. The reviews are amazing and the video reviews are a hoot (to quote my Gram).
Hope the info, as much as it may be overload, gives you hope on the future of climate solutions.
Baud
Important to keep in mind, especially when facing the media onslaught.
Mallard Filmore
Even if we win the fight with carbon, there is another problem:
https://youtu.be/9vRtA7STvH4
” I recently learned that waste heat will boil the oceans in about 400 years.”
VFX Lurker
I currently drive a small hybrid car. It’s great for parking in tight spots around Los Angeles.
When the time comes, I’d like to replace it in the future with a small EV. However, right now most EVs target the most popular car market: SUVs. I can’t fault car manufacturers for making cars that the majority of Americans want, but I’m hoping to see more small EVs like the Chevy Bolt in the future.
TaMara
@VFX Lurker: KIA and
HyndiaHyundai are trying to really up the small car EV game at a reasonable cost. I hope at least one of the big three does the same. Don’t look to Toyota because it looks like that CEO had completely abandoned EVs because who knows. China is cornering the market in other countries.TaMara
(which I did).
JFC
Brachiator
Almost too much information, covering many areas. Is there a summary of the Nat Bullard presentation somewhere?
I had seen something about this before.
I will be curious to see if there are hydro issues in 2024, and whether this may become an ongoing problem.
Some of these charts suggest to me that cleaner energy and renewable energy may not be equally important. Cleaner energy is vital. And I say “cleaner” because there is no such thing as entirely clean energy production.
Old School
It looks like sales of vehicles with internal combustion engines are only declining if you classify hybrids as not having internal combustion engines.
Still, progress in certainly being made in the transition.
TaMara
@Brachiator: I would be grateful if there was, hopefully since it just dropped, one will pop up.
And agree, nothing is 100% clean and I’ve been focusing a lot lately on carbon capture (natural, not manufactured solutions) because that’s going to be super important going forward.
sab
@TaMara: Think twice about getting a Kia or a Hyundai. They are very stealable, due to the hackable ignition system.
Fake Irishman
@Baud:
co-sign. It’s been sanity tracking the renewable energy numbers over the last 25 years in the US, watching wind and solar steadily climb in output and the proportion of power generated. It happened in Bush II, Obama, Trump and Biden. Granted, two of those implemented policies that have made the change faster, but the trend is steady.
(Both wind and solar are up about two orders of magnitude over the last 15 years)
TaMara
@Old School: Carbon reduction is the important piece there – it’s why back in – was it 2008 – the Obama administration paid to junk older cars and get you to buy a newer, more efficient ICE.
I’m not sure the statistic is true – but something like less than 10% of vehicles produced 90% of the car producing carbon – due to inefficiency and agej – so those “antique cars” that don’t have to pass emissions are real climate killers.
TaMara
@sab: Those are all pre-2017 due to the ignition configuration.
I have a 2019 Niro – no issues at all like with those older KIAs
ETA: and my brain my have just exploded a little thinking a pre-2017 as old.
TaMara
Okay, I have to get back to work. Dr.Volts tweet sent me waaaaay off the rails and unfortunately, Balloon-Juice posts are not going to pay to feed the dogs, cats, and ducks. Fun as you guys are.
Brachiator
I’ve seen some of the video reviews and they are very interesting. The Kia EV9 looks big and heavy and I wonder how it handles as a family vehicle full of adults and kids. Most of the road tests I saw had at most two passengers.
I really liked that it had good headroom and leg room in the third row of seats.
Anyway, looking forward to more on this EV and other vehicles.
Fake Irishman
@TaMara:
I don’t think this that 10/90 is true with regards to CO2.
it is true that a small share of large vehicles (trucks) produce a disproportionate share of pollution, but not by that ratio. (I want to say it’s like 4 percent producing like 20 percent) that stat likely came out of an EPA report regulating the mileage standards and tailpipe emissions for heavy trucks)
Old School
@Brachiator:
Is there a summary of the Nat Bullard presentation somewhere?
Not necessarily a summary, but here is someone’s 10 favorites:
TaMara
@Brachiator: One of the videos (I think it’s Edmunds, I’ll find it and post it later) loaded the car with the guy’s entire office mates, as his “unusually large kids” and their luggage. LOL
ETA: I pay attention to that because I want to know how many Danes can an EV9 hold.
Fake Irishman
Also, I highly recommend Dr. Volts’ podcast on clean battery recycling. It is fascinating and really important. His podcast in general is a must listen as well. He’s well worth kicking some cash to on his substack.
TaMara
@Fake Irishman: Yeah, you’re probably right. When my head is not full of a dozen things and I’m doing an EV post – I’ll get the actual facts on that so we can all look down our noses at those polluters. 😉
RevRick
@TaMara: The 10% is mostly people who drive more than 150,000 miles per year, which means salespeople and those living in remote, rural areas (who usually drive trucks).
cain
The most surefire way of reducing carbon is to reduce consumption and reducing the world populations.
While we are doing that right to repair and circular economy is going to be important. Reuse should be the rallying call with less reliance on cheap labor and mitigating that with products that last.
Redshift
I went to the DC Auto show last week, which I’ve never been to before, because they were promoting all the EVs they were looking to have there, and I figured it was a good way to get a look at a bunch of them. One if my first steps in buying a car is to check if I fit in it – no point in taking time doing research if I don’t.
I was only looking at sedans and hatchbacks, not SUVs, and I fit in almost all of them, which was a nice surprise. I got invited to take a test drive in a Tesla right when we walked in, so I did. It was fun; I was nice and didn’t tell the sales guy I’d only be buying one if they fired Muskrat. :-)
RevRick
@TaMara: You need to move to Copenhagen to find out.
Raoul Paste
@TaMara: Toyota hasn’t abandoned EV’s. In fact, they are touting a revolutionary high capacity solid-state battery that will be safe, and allow an EV range of 900 miles.
Allegedly, this type of EV will become available in 2027 or even 2026.
As someone who has worked in battery research , I can’t express how technically impressive this is, especially with the difficulties of mass manufacturing. I wonder how Tesla stock will fare
sab
@TaMara: Good to know. Thanks.
cain
I would love to see a system where you can connect our EV to other EV and build public transit through individual car ownership
cain
@Raoul Paste: Tesla singular contribution is that it proved that you can build an EV that the public would want with the range people want and make it affordable.
TaMara
@Raoul Paste: I was just reading about the solid state batteries and was so excited about that.
And thanks for the update on Toyota – I had only heard the interview the CEO gave a while back, so I was going by that.
RevRick
@cain: There are a lot of things that needed to be changed in order to make for a carbon neutral economy. The biggest problems involve air travel and production of metals and concrete, which require high temperatures. The other big problem for us is suburbia and exurbia, which are built around automobiles.
The fact remains that no matter how energy efficient battery technology advances, it can never equal the energy density of fossil fuels. Which means that we all will need how to live with less.
Peke Daddy
@Brachiator: What is really most important is efficiency. Integrative design is key here.
https://youtu.be/NkJ5kwFcv0w?si=wlLJPz3C13hHGnuW
catclub
@VFX Lurker: me too. I have always wanted a small station wagon.
there are nice looking ones… if you are in Europe.
catclub
I think the days of tesla itself being worth more than all the other major car makers are over. Toyota, GM and VW are big, experienced and have lots of engineers.
catclub
Sabine Hossenfelder had a somewhat scary youtube video on the greenhouse multiplier.
If it is revised upwards – which looks like the trend in models – then that means more rapid and increased climate change for a given change in CO2 – not happy news.
She also noted that of all her videos, her climate change ones get the most dislikes.
wjca
Great! I’ve been waiting, impatiently, for the next battery generation to arrive. It sounds like this could be it. (And in just about the time frame I was guessing 3-4 years ago.)
catclub
Usually there is an 80-20 rule.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@cain: I thought the whole point of “saving the world” is so that we don’t have to see human population decline (involuntarily).
Peke Daddy
@Brachiator: What is really most important is efficiency.
https://youtu.be/NkJ5kwFcv0w?si=wlLJPz3C13hHGnuW
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@RevRick:
Why so certain? Why is this a “fact”, when battery technology continues to evolve, and breakthroughs keep happening?
lowtechcyclist
What is CCS?
ETA: Just what does the acronym stand for. Once I know the words, I’ll probably know what they mean.
Snarki, child of Loki
@catclub: “I think the days of tesla itself being worth more than all the other major car makers are over. Toyota, GM and VW are big, experienced and have lots of engineers.” …and fewer unstable moronic egotists at the steering wheel.
Peke Daddy
@RevRick: The answer is ultra-lighting autos. New technologies to greatly reduce energy intensity and replace carbon in metals and cement production are just about here, too. Efficient use of materials will also be important. Here, big savings through design can cost less than small ones.
Brachiator
@Snarki, child of Loki:
Consumer Reports and other organizations have done comprehensive reviews of ICE, hybrid and electric vehicles. Legacy auto companies don’t have a huge advantage over new companies and have had a number of big stumbles along the way.
It is a very interesting and competitive arena. Also, we have to do better than heavy EVs with big batteries and modest range limits.
trollhattan
@Brachiator: We know our exploitable rivers are already developed for hydropower and beyond upgrading generation equipment to be more efficient, they’re probably at or past the peak in the US West. Unprecedented droughts have meant a net reduction over the last decade.
In-stream small hydro is considered “renewable” and underexploited at present. IDK about ocean tidal and wave generation–seems pretty site-specific but being tried in places. We’re busy wrangling over offshore wind. Someday?
In cloudy, stormy California CAISO at present is only 31% renewables: 57% solar, 26% wind, 9% geothermal, 3% biomass, 2.8% small hydro.
Rest of supply: NG 40%, large hydro 4%, imports 15%, batteries net minus (charging), nuclear 9%.
This time of year, on sunny days solar is the largest source and renewables can approach 70% in daytime.
Jay
????
When I lived on offgrid solar, my lead acid batteries after 20 years service, were at 80%.
My Optima AGM truck batteries were still at 100% after 25 years.
Is it because people are grinding down the charge on their EV’s lithium batteries, letting them sit in a low charge state, before charging them up?
I have lithium battery for tools that I have gotten way more than 15 years out of and they are still good. Only had to replace 2 in all that time, (tip, 0 charge and outside in a -45c cold snap overnight, not good).
Old School
@lowtechcyclist:
Looks like Carbon Capture and Storage.
Zamphuor
Recently (past month-ish?) someone in comments posted a link to a guide to credits for EVs and electric stoves (from gas) and how to get them. I’ve been trying to find it, but no luck. I was hoping someone can send me in the right direction.
TaMara
@lowtechcyclist: Carbon Capture and Storage – I believe in relation to buying and selling credits.
TaMara
@Jay: I think that’s based on current data – as in there’s not a lot of it beyond that time frame, since heavy use of EVs is still relatively new.
TaMara
@Zamphuor: Rewiring America has a calculator
And here’s the IRS link
Not sure if that’s what you’re looking for
skerry
Check out Rewiring America‘s website. They have a tool to see what benefits you may be eligible for from the IRA and can help you put together a plan to electrify your home.
Bill Arnold
@trollhattan:
That’s 31+4+9+(some fraction of 15) percent non-CO2-emitting sources, though. (Non-CO2 (net) emitting is what matters.)
44 percent minimum, perhaps > 50 percent.
On a cloudy, stormy day.
Marcopolo
@lowtechcyclist: think it stands for clean carbon & storage (or something similar). back when i lived in Fbnx AK i learned about the giant coal deposits nearby to the south around Healy. There was also a huge coal burning power plant there—made sense, right? When “clean coal” became a thing several billion dollars were spent trying to retrofit the plant so it could burn the coal, generate the power, but all (most?) of the carbon off gassed would be caught and captured before entering the atmosphere. Long story short, despite spending huge sums they could never get it to work in a way that made electricity generated this way competitive. Really is always best not to burn the carbon based fuels in the first place.
Zamphuor
I don’t think that’s what I saw before, but both of those are helpful. Thank you!
Fake Irishman
@TaMara:
That’s cap-and trade (buy and selling pollution credits)
CCS is carbon capture and storage, which is pulling CO2 out of the air or exhaust of a major polluter and injecting it underground or in rock formations.
Geo Wilcox
@VFX Lurker: We bought a Bolt EUV in November. I love this car. It handles like my old BMW 325XI with more power. We drove the EV Blazer and loved that too but it was too much money for what you get. They will eventually have to drop the price if they want them to sell. Oh and we am getting that SWEET $7500 tax rebate!
Marcopolo
@trollhattan: thought I saw a graph in the last couple weeks that indicated between 10 am and 4 pm virtually all the energy used in CA was generated by renewable sources.
gvg
@catclub: I have never believed that valuation. It was nuts. The older companies had a lot more factories, contacts and experience. They had supply chains and other things that Tesla didn’t in number or size.
Now if the companies had continued not making any effort in electric, they would have lost value yes, but otherwise that was just nutty publicity.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: That would be Carbon Capture and (I guess) Storage. Like if you have a cement plant and want to reduce the CO2 emissions there are various ways to scrub the CO2 out of your exhaust.. Or, if your plastics plant reforms natural gas in order to to produce hydrogen for a feedstock, you can capture the CO2. Then if you store the CO2 you get a tax credit.
There is also Direct Air Capture technology that can remove CO2 from the air. I think Occidental Petroleum is building a big DAC plant in Texas. It must not operational yet. That one is supposed inject the CO2 into tb6e oil field beneath it which helps recover more oil along with the Q45 tax credit of $25 per ton of carbon captured.
Mart
I go to a lot of factories and warehouses. About ten years back they all switched to compact fluorescent lighting as it paid for itself. Now they have all switched to LED as it again pays for itself. Shoulda been in the industrial lighting business!
Marcopolo
@Geminid: I heard the rep from occidental on npr talking about building this co2 scrubbing plant which would then—get this—make it okay for them to keep pumping oil because of the offsets and magic jesus or something. Also that they could market their oil as “green oil.” Kind of vomited in my mouth listening to her while thinking that is not the way this works!
The Red Pen
I think that EVs today are like Japanese cars in the 1970s. Conservatives laughed at them and hated on them and generated resentment about losing American jobs, etc., but they kept winning because everyone who actually got one loved it. Eventually, the FUD didn’t work and now no one cares whether or not you buy a Toyota.
Well, except for the Prius, which they hated on for a decade and now… meh.
Of course, as an EV owner, my favorite thing is people who’ve never driven an EV telling me how terrible it is to own one. If it was terrible, I would know. Lately, I’ve had a lot of people telling me, “Well, it might be OK in California, but just don’t go anywhere cold!” I live in Illinois. I drove to Ohio for Thanksgiving. It was plenty cold.
Again, the complaints are not coming from people with any actual experience, just Facebook memes.
trollhattan
@Marcopolo: Similar, I heard a flack from one of the Middle East Awl companies attending COP 28 BRAGGING about how they were doing the hard work of reducing carbon by helping coal users get off coal and on to natural gas, which they were pleased to provide. Wanted to punch the smug prick in the neck, though my radio.
trollhattan
@The Red Pen: Just idly searched for used EVs w/in 50 miles of the metroplex and there are several hundred to choose among, ranging from as high as $90k for a Rivian to beer money for an old Leaf. And every pricepoint in between.
Certainly more companies and models to choose among that I was aware of, and maybe that’s a telling point. Some EVs look like any other car.
mrmoshpotato
OT – is Nitter broken for anyone else?
E.
@Marcopolo: That is exactly like every NPR climate story I have ever heard. It’s a soporific for the masses.
Baud
Speaking of climate, for some reason, YouTube thinks I’m interested in a BP propaganda ad about how their committed responsible energy.
It plays before every video I watch.
trollhattan
@mrmoshpotato: Yes. The guy has ended Nitter and the working sites are quickly expiring.
As far as I know there is no like tool to jump to. I’m back to viewing X directly in a browser with the chron order blown to bits.
The Red Pen
@Geo Wilcox: I was excited by the Blazer EV (did you notice it was featured in the movie Barbie?) but when it came out with the final price… yeah, pass.
The one feature that will make it hard for me to leave the GM EVs is the regenerative braking “paddle” on the back of the steering wheel. It’s become an integral part of how I drive now. It gives you “1½ pedal driving.” Instead of getting used to 1-pedal driving, you can have the car behave like a traditional ICE automatic transmission, but still get pure regenerative braking when you want it.
NotMax
@catclub
While its styling not to everyone’s taste the Mini Cooper Clubman may be the closest thing to a small station wagon available in the U.S.
Quadrillipede
Not specifically or directly climate-related, but good news nonetheless:
Jay
@mrmoshpotato:
Yeah, Nitter is mostly broken and won’t be fixed.
The work around for now, is to use /nitter.1d4.us/, some accounts won’t load, but if you can get to someone who aggregated others posts you are interested in, you can get to their accounts by clicking the @nym on the aggregated post, most of the time.
For Ukraine, I use https://nitter.1d4.us/GlasnostGone as my “portal”.
You can’t copy or paste, or open an individual post with threads or comments, but you can read the one offs and jump to the aggregated poster’s feed.
One of the Many Jens
Thanks for highlighting this!
Just FYI, I’m not sure about David Roberts educational attainments, but I am pretty sure that the dr in his social media handle is just for his name, David Roberts at Volts, not doctor. Not taking away from the fact he’s been writing about this stuff for a long time!
Quadrillipede
And if that doesn’t get the job done, the sun itself will, in about 4 billion years.
(I’m aware that 400 years is a lot sooner but as long as we can keep Big Waste Heat lobbyists out of the legislative process it seems like a long enough time to get some decent mitigation enacted.)
TaMara
@One of the Many Jens: Oh, I thought it was just a funny name he liked, LOL
You know, like Dr. Demento
But your explanation makes more sense.
ETA: And now I’m going to giggle about that all afternoon
NotMax
@Quadrillipede
“We’re gonna need more teabags.”
//
Redshift
@RevRick: David Roberts had an episode recently about a company with a breakthrough for producing (iirc) zero-carbon concrete (outside of energy units, which are a separate issue that’s already being worked on), and now need to scale it up. He’s had others about hydrogen -powered steel plants.
One his comments about these is about how we’ve started with decarbonizating power and transportation, and worried about other sectors because they’re hard with no known solutions. Anna then when attention/money/research turns to them, it turns out there are solutions that aren’t so hard technically, it’s just that nobody looked for them. (They still require a lot of money and equipment replacement, but not “oh no, how will we possibly do this?”)
Quadrillipede
I’m extraordinarily interested in learning what you’ve discovered so far wrt carbon capture. 👍
Dan B
@The Red Pen: Yes. The issue with “Dead Tesla batteries in Chicago!!!” was people running the batteries down so low they didn’t have enough power to warm the battery up to optimal efficient charging. So they took hours to charge instead of minutes. The fact that seemingly every major news source had the same story with none of the background smells of fossil fuel group propaganda.
Message: Don’t run your battery down to 5% unless you’ve got hours to charge it.
Wasn’t that easy to understand? 😃
Dan B
@Baud: Well, aren’t you special! (Said in Church Lady voice.)
As in especially un-lucky.
Redshift
@TaMara:
He was drvox when he was at Vox Media, and volts when he went independent. But I’ve always thought the same shit why he uses that; when I first started reading him I thought of him as Dr. Vox. :-)
gene108
@Brachiator:
Thats mostly the U.S. market. Other countries will probably go for smaller EV’s, since their ICE cars are generally smaller.
This is the market China’s trying to corner.
Redshift
@Dan B: The WaPo article about it (or at least one of them, may not have been the one at the time) was pretty good. It pointed out that gas vehicles are also less fuel-efficient at lower temperatures, and that most people with EVs understand it and can deal with the reduced range (i.e., the majority of people just drive them around town.)
It also had something else I hadn’t heard about. I knew that cabin heating is a significant issue, because it’s drawing off the same power source (as opposed to using waste heat in gas cars.) And also because electric resistive heating (like a space heater) draws a lot of current and isn’t very efficient. But the thing I didn’t know is that some high-end EVs now have heat pumps for heating (and, I assume, for cooling instead of a separate AC unit), which are much more efficient. Here’s hoping that feature comes down to affordable models quickly.
Geminid
@Marcopolo: Scrubbing CO2 out of fossil fuel emissions is probably justifiable when it comes to industrial processes like cement or steel production. And in the case of cement, there is also the CO2 produced chemically to deal with in addition to that from the natural gas used to heat the limestone.
Using carbon capture for industrial hydrogen production is an interesting aspect of CCS. A lot of hydrogen is used in fertilizer and plastics production, and right now almost all of it is produced by “steam reformation” of hydrogen from natural gas or coal. That process produces a significant amount of carbon emissions that can be mostly captured.
But in the long run, a lot of the point sources of industrial carbon pollution like steel mills and glass factories can be made to work with renewable energy.
I read about a pilot project using an array of mirrors to heat limestone for cement production. You’d still have to capture the CO2 emitted by the limestone for it to be “carbon neutral” cement.
Dan B
Our life has gone 95% electric and renewable in the last fifteen years: car, house heat and light, solar pv, induction cooking, etc. We’ve got a gas stove that we use once every other week and a gas dryer that also gets very little use. And we watch videos about cars, batteries, and other low, or no, carbon technologies. It’s very exciting stuff. Fossil fuels are just that – fossils or on their way out faster and faster. It’s part of why the GOP is feeling oppressed.
I look forward to more posts although it seems that it will take a week to fully explore each post.
BTW I did a lot of research on LED’s primarily because most cheaper ones are lousy at producing quality light. Skin tones often appear cadaverous, among other things like flicker.
Redshift
@Quadrillipede: Me, too. I’ve read some recently about how carbon capture is something of a conundrum for climate solutions advocates, because we’ll need it in some form to bring the CO2 level back down after we stop raising it, so research now is necessary.
But at the same time, the fossil fuel companies are backing it so they can be “hey, burn all you want, magic future tech will fix it all later!” So, how to pursue it now without reducing the incentive to solve the problem?
You’d think “I don’t care if you’re working on a pump, you still have to stop drilling holes in the boat” would be compelling enough, but when you’re up against the most profitable industry in the world, it isn’t.
Dan B
@Redshift: Our latest Nissan Leaf has a heat pump. I think the seats may still be resistance but heating a body up directly is much more efficient than heating the cabin. Too bad cooled seats have drawbacks – arriving at your destination with a soaked backside.
Dan B
@gene108: China’s EV companies already have extremely high quality and inexpensive options. The US is far behind, as are European manufacturers.
Marcopolo
@mrmoshpotato: so my understanding is the way nitter worked was to create lots of anonymous new twitter accounts which users, through the nitter interface, could use to surf twitter. so you didn’t need to have a twitter acct of your own cause you were logging in on these new temp accounts that def had limitations for viewing (you could only view x number of posts before they stopped working) because they were new and unpaid but via nitter you could always just create a new temp acct and start fresh. musk has now made using new accts in this fashion impossible—they basically no longer have access to posts—saying people were using this method to scrape twitter. as these anonymous accts expire all nitter instances will slowly stop working altogether. at least that is what i think has happened. if someone out there knows more feel free to correct me.
Marcopolo
@Redshift: perhaps the best way to do carbon capture is to plant more trees (and other living things) that sequester carbon in themselves & to greatly increase the amount of land dedicated to these green spaces. you’d be amazed at the amount of carbon a farm, operating organically with healthy soil, can sequester per acre.
also, no one has mentioned @The Ministry for the Future” by Kim Stanley Robinson but it is by far the best fiction/science fiction novel I’ve read about climate change & how to rein it in over the next 30-100 years. Needless to say, it starts on a very grim note but ends optimistically.
catclub
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: More importantly, if you make the whole car more efficient it does not NEED the high energy density of fossil fuels.
Redshift
@Geminid:
Maybe not, though, check this out:
We are closing in on zero-carbon cement
catclub
you could knock me over with a feather.
Redshift
@Dan B: Cool, good to know!
Geminid
@Marcopolo: One thing about that “carbon neutral” oil Occidental says they will produce: it can be used to make air transport carbon neutral. Back when Democrats designed their climate package in 2021, Democrats considered adding a mandate for the air transport industry to shift to carbon neutral fuels. It was to be phased in over a decade. One reason the mandate was dropped was the lack of supply. I would not be surprised to see Democrats include the mandate in another package later this decade. I think the EU has one already.
Oil producers have been using CO2 in oil recovery for decades. I think it dissolves into oil and makes it flow more easily.
One reason CCS has a bad name is that the IRS hasn’t had the resources to properly audit the tax credit program, and companies cheat. Hopefully, some of the extra IRS funding Democrats won will go to support the Q45 tax credit audits.
I think another reason CCS has a bad name is that whenever someone looks up the topic “Clean Energy” they see a bunch of ads from oil companies bragging about their selfless efforts to capture carbon. Oil companies are so disliked that people resent the idea of them surviving the clean energy transition, and that animus rubs off the technology.
Quadrillipede
@NotMax: OK, that reminded of this from a few days ago. Seems like the British sense of humour is infecting the US Embassy staff:
https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/files/2024/01/US-Embassy-tea-memo-500×500.jpeg
Baud
@Quadrillipede:
Ha!
lowtechcyclist
@TaMara:
What, are you telling me Dr. Demento isn’t a real doctor?
Next you’re gonna tell me Dr. John isn’t one either.
//
Quadrillipede
But, but, how will I be able to feed and clothe myself if you take my precious black viscous livelihood away. 🙄
(Nobody in the recorded history of humanity has ever had to change careers because of external factors…)
lowtechcyclist
@Redshift:
I hope they have concrete evidence for that.
:d&r:
Eyeroller
I had to go from 2 cars to 1 so I traded a 2019 Leaf and an older (2006) ICE vehicle for a Volvo Recharge (a hybrid). I loved the Leaf (and it wasn’t even a Plus) and I had gotten a 240V plug for it installed in the garage, but given the current state of the infrastructure I was not willing for my only vehicle to be a BEV. I make mostly short trips within or close to the Recharge’s battery range, so I got over 1500 miles on a tank of gas and I could have gotten considerably more, but it started to complain about “old fuel” (six months old) so I deliberately burned off the gas. If I’d felt comfortable keeping the Leaf as my only car I’d be more virtuous, but I am getting around 110 mpg so that seems to reduce my carbon footprint quite a bit compared to an ICE vehicle.
TeezySkeezy
If Harrison Ford can be de-carbonitized, then the future definitely can.
Eduardo
@RevRick:
Disagree — You don’t need the energy density of fossil fuels for most cars and light trucks. For heavy trucks we are on our way via batteries or maybe H2.
Price of solar is coming down quickly and soon will be ridiculously low. Wind is coming down as well as batteries. We are about to enter a period of super abundant, clean and cheap energy.
For cement and other industries there is very interesting stuff in the pipeline. As well as agriculture.
We should consume less only if it is wasteful, it is done to “impress” people and/or take space from living better.
But we will be fine.
Eduardo
@lowtechcyclist: it is cemented in Leah Ellis’ mind.
Eduardo
deleted as it was duplicated
Ron
The ev9 is a monstrosity and along with all of these unnecessarily large, incredibly heavy vehicles should be banned from our roads. They damage the roads and bridges and kill. There’s a reason the US’s vehicular deaths have risen while the rest of the worlds has fallen and giant vehicles are a large part of that.