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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

Hell hath no fury like a farmer bankrupted.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

“In this country American means white. everybody else has to hyphenate.”

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

The desire to stay informed is directly at odds with the need to not be constantly enraged.

“Just close your eyes and kiss the girl and go where the tilt-a-whirl takes you.” ~OzarkHillbilly

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

They punch you in the face and then start crying because their fist hurts.

“Facilitate” is an active verb, not a weasel word.

Petty moves from a petty man.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

They are not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

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You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / Saturday Night Open Thread: Chomp Chomp Chomp!

Saturday Night Open Thread: Chomp Chomp Chomp!

by Anne Laurie|  February 1, 20257:43 pm| 296 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Republican Stupidity, Trumpery

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Leopard: I will eat your face
Bank analysts: Our baseline assumes no face-eating
Leopard: Chomp chomp chomp

[image or embed]

— Paul Krugman (@pkrugman.bsky.social) February 1, 2025 at 12:12 PM

There’s people who are going to be hurt by Trump/Musk tariffs who don’t deserve it. But, I suspect, the people most offended by any economic pain are gonna be Trump voters and Trump enablers…

Here’s a problem w Nazi comparisons (& a reason to not despair):
When the Nazis took over they had 2m SA stormtroopers. Many were WWI combat veterans. That’d be like 10 million street fighters, many unemployed, hardened by participating in 15 years of political violence, fighting for Musk & Trump/1

— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) February 1, 2025 at 5:09 PM

On top of the huge force of street fighters, Hitler took charge of a civil service filled with conservative German nationalists. He purged Jews & political opponents, but that was <10%, & he didn’t eliminate huge parts of the state apparatus & services. In fact, the bureaucracy got larger…/2

— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) February 1, 2025 at 5:14 PM

…under the Nazis, bc they essentially added party operatives in to the existing bureaucracy.

And for everyday life, if you weren’t Jewish or gay or a political opponent of the Nazis or a trade unionists for a few years your life probably got materially better. Govt spending (much of it military)/3

— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) February 1, 2025 at 5:18 PM

…helped lift Germany out of the depression. That’s the opposite of causing a recession or worse.

Most regimes consolidate power. But they typically do it in steps, & they try to avoid inflicting pain on the mass of the population. What Musk/Trump are doing is pissing off or even hurting…/4

— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) February 1, 2025 at 5:21 PM

…much of their political base.

Of course, that gets at a fundamental difference here vs most authoritarian regimes: this is an evolving oligarchy. And there aren’t many examples of that in modern history. There’s no mass movement to destroy the administrative state, none of this is in response…/5

— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) February 1, 2025 at 5:25 PM

…to a cataclysmic event or rapid modernization or anything like that. There isn’t mass support for what they’re doing, & it’s going to hurt nearly everyone, even the very wealthy, bc Musk/Trump are stupid & they don’t have a largely allied bureaucracy.

They’re going to be hugely unpopular…/6

— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) February 1, 2025 at 5:29 PM

…& even dictatorships are sensitive to public opinion. And these guys are too stupid to do any of this well.

They’re evil & their incompetence is dangerous. But they don’t have the political support or apparatus to impose much. Our struggle is to keep them from stealing & breaking everything /7

— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) February 1, 2025 at 5:35 PM

They love trolling & being indignant. Few get off their couch.

— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) February 1, 2025 at 5:46 PM

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Reader Interactions

296Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    February 1, 2025 at 7:47 pm

     

    J.P. Morgan econs on Trump’s latest are “increasingly concerned that the policy mix may tilt into an unintentionally far less business-friendly stance. The sustained 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico set to start this weekend is materially different than the tariff increases built into our baseline.”

    Just close your eyes and think of slave labor.

  2. 2.

    NotMax

    February 1, 2025 at 7:48 pm

    Open thread?

    Now that’s more than odd.

    Scrolling down the various offerings to see what may be new, what’s the first thing showing on Prime’s “Military and War TV” category?

    The supermarionation kids’ show Fireball XL-5.

  3. 3.

    NotMax

    February 1, 2025 at 7:51 pm

    From downstairs.

    Frontloading as a strategy in advance of tariffs.

    Not something businesses dealing in perishable goods such as restaurant and grocer suppliers can do.

  4. 4.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 1, 2025 at 7:52 pm

    I agree with Dana Houle.

    Putting this here so more people will see it.

    OT: Question for the hive mind. Any suggestions for a new cable modem? I am retiring my 8 year old Arris gateway.

    Also is a gateway better (modem+ router) or is it better to get both separately? Wirecutter says getting two separate devices is better. Any recommendations, suggestions much appreciated.

    Thanks!

  5. 5.

    different-church-lady

    February 1, 2025 at 7:54 pm

    HOLY FUCKING GOD WE’RE DEBATING WHETHER THESE NAZIS ARE AS BAD AS THE LAST NAZIS!!!!

  6. 6.

    Sister Golden Bear

    February 1, 2025 at 7:55 pm

    CDC orders mass retraction and revision of submitted research across all science and medicine journals. Banned terms must be scrubbed.

    The CDC has instructed its scientists to retract or pause the publication of any research manuscript being considered by any medical or scientific journal, not merely its own internal periodicals, Inside Medicine has learned. The move aims to ensure that no “forbidden terms” appear in the work. The policy includes manuscripts that are in the revision stages at journal (but not officially accepted) and those already accepted for publication but not yet live.

    In the order, CDC researchers were instructed to remove references to or mentions of a list of forbidden terms: “Gender, transgender, pregnant person, pregnant people, LGBT, transsexual, non-binary, nonbinary, assigned male at birth, assigned female at birth, biologically male, biologically female,” according to an email sent to CDC employees (see below).”

    They want our very existence erased.

  7. 7.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 7:59 pm

    Good evenin’, ya’ll.

    Finally got a bit of a break … didn’t have to work a +12 hour day.

    But … the hotel has shitty internet service, making it hard to keep up with youse guys.

  8. 8.

    Lobo

    February 1, 2025 at 8:02 pm

     

    @Sister Golden Bear: Now are those terms banned under Sex Crimes or Thought Crimes under the Thought Police from the Ministry of Truth?

  9. 9.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 1, 2025 at 8:03 pm

    My SIL teaches piano. One of his students lost her mother and sister in the DCA crash. You never get trained for that sort of thing.

  10. 10.

    NotMax

    February 1, 2025 at 8:04 pm

    @Nukular Biskits

    Better connection in the bar?
    ;)

  11. 11.

    Eolirin

    February 1, 2025 at 8:05 pm

    You know it occurs to me that the tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are so far reaching and so difficult to increase domestic production on that they basically constitute a sudden shift to European style VAT as a way to raise revenue.

    I don’t think people are going to be very happy with that here.

  12. 12.

    Nina

    February 1, 2025 at 8:07 pm

    Wait until those Wall Street analysts realize they can no longer rely on the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  13. 13.

    Spanky

    February 1, 2025 at 8:07 pm

    So it’s the first of the month. Usually the time for WIC and ?? to hit people’s bank accounts. Anyone hear of any missed deposits?

  14. 14.

    bbleh

    February 1, 2025 at 8:09 pm

    Our struggle is to keep them from stealing & breaking everything.

    This to me is the most serious challenge.  And as part of “breaking” I would include specifically “fundamentally corrupting.”

    Many — I’d say most, and certainly including the Senile Old Orange Guy — are basically in smash-and-grab mode.  But the zealots are on Missions, and their Missions differ.  I’m particularly worried about (1) plutocratic takeover of regulatory agencies (the well-known “regulatory capture” problem, see eg mine safety regulation in West Virginia) and (2) further authoritarian/Dominionist takeover of law-enforcement agencies (Federalist Society et al.)

    Assuming the incompetence isn’t so bad as to cause the structure of government largely to collapse — which alas is not a sure bet — we’ll survive the looting and the wanton cruelty, albeit at a terrible cost.  But there will be significant long-term damage in any case, and our lives will be the worse for it for at least a generation.

    (This has been your Sunshine Report.)

  15. 15.

    different-church-lady

    February 1, 2025 at 8:10 pm

    @Nina: Hell, wait until they realize the Dollar is worthless.

  16. 16.

    Another Scott

    February 1, 2025 at 8:10 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: We bought an Arris S33 (DOCSIS 3.1) modem from Amazon in April 2023.  It’s been fine.

    You want at least DOCSIS 3.1, and 4.0 is out now (at some providers, anyway).  (Faster speeds).

    Check with your provider – some modems can do telephony and some can’t, if you also have your phone with your internet company.  Make sure you get one that meets your needs.

    The hardest thing about the upgrade is that (at least with Cox) I always have to call them to do the changeover because the “self-service” stuff doesn’t ever work.  And usually having to go to “level 2” to get a tech who can do the magic to get it start talking to their network.  But it usually only takes an hour or so if I call late on a weekend.

    Our networking hardware beyond that is a Deco mesh system from TP-Link.  It works well and has been upgraded over the years (X90 stuff now).  Make sure you keep it updated, whatever you get.

    HTH a little.

    Best wishes,
    Scott.

  17. 17.

    cmorenc

    February 1, 2025 at 8:12 pm

    Trump is getting a huge assist so far from having a narrow, but fearfully timid GOP majority in both houses.  What we Ds sorely need is to regain more structural leverage that includes re-converting some areas that have drifted in a reddish direction.  Can the tangible negative fallout from Trump’s damage inflicted on people who voted for him be effectively used to re-orient them into opposition?

  18. 18.

    frosty

    February 1, 2025 at 8:13 pm

    @Nukular Biskits: How’s the cell service? Can you use your phone as a hotspot?

  19. 19.

    hells littlest angel

    February 1, 2025 at 8:13 pm

    Few get off their couch.

    This is written on a medium designed for people who will sit for hours scrolling their phones.

  20. 20.

    dmsilev

    February 1, 2025 at 8:13 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: I’d get separate devices. The modem is pretty straightforward, but there’s a lot more variation in routers/WiFi setups, and a lot of that depends on things like how big your home is, how many connected devices your household has, etc. Better to have the modem just supply an Ethernet connection and then figure out the right router solution than try to find an all in one which works for your needs.

  21. 21.

    bbleh

    February 1, 2025 at 8:13 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear: they want us back in the closet, where we belong.  And all the dusky types and uppity wimmin back where THEY belong.  Something something Founding Fathers something Scripture something.

    I think the practical effect on science will be, good science will have substantially less money behind it for a while.  But I don’t think that — contra politics — there will be much if any backsliding.

  22. 22.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 8:14 pm

    unintentionally far less business-friendly stance.

    These people are deeply stupid

  23. 23.

    dmsilev

    February 1, 2025 at 8:16 pm

    @different-church-lady: The Past Nazis definitely had better fashion sense.

  24. 24.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 8:17 pm

    Posting this infographic here, (as well) for those who haven’t seen it.

    It tracks the changes year by year from 2001 to 2023 in Global Trade patterns from the US to China.

    interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/china-versus-america-on-global-trade/

    Not many majority Global Trading Partners left with the US anymore, there won’t be any by the end of the Dolt 47 Tariff regime.

  25. 25.

    Lobo

    February 1, 2025 at 8:17 pm

    Thoughtcrime is the offense of thinking in ways not approved by the ruling Ingsoc Republican party.

  26. 26.

    WaterGirl

    February 1, 2025 at 8:18 pm

    @different-church-lady: My thought exactly!  But it looks better in all caps.

  27. 27.

    dmsilev

    February 1, 2025 at 8:19 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    “’It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”—Upton Sinclair.

    If the rich and powerful who both head up the banks and make up their Very Wealthy Clients don’t want to understand the implications of Trump, the analysts will take note.

  28. 28.

    Suzanne

    February 1, 2025 at 8:20 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: One of Mr. Suzanne’s students lost her father in the crash, as well. Apparently there was a group of hunters on the plane. It’s such a tragedy, and of course, FFOTUS is making it worse.

  29. 29.

    gene108

    February 1, 2025 at 8:20 pm

    Republicans have enough conservative Christian religious fanatics in their party that questioning them is questioning the word of god, never mind the innumerable differences in Christianity between various denominations.

    Popular support is secondary to doctrinal purity that believers must observe, and non-believers are forced to obey.

  30. 30.

    TONYG

    February 1, 2025 at 8:20 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: That is horrible.  I’m still waiting for a clear explanation of why the U.S. Army thought that it was a good idea to hold Blackhawk helicopter training exercises in the vicinity of commercial airline flight paths.  I’m sure that Mr. Hegseth will get right on that as soon as he sobers up.

  31. 31.

    lowtechcyclist

    February 1, 2025 at 8:20 pm

    Here’s the thing about expecting normies to understand what they were voting for: those JP Morgan economists are paid well to pay attention to stuff like this, and they didn’t see it coming.

    I mean, yeah, the Morgan econ guys totally should have seen a realistic possibility that a vengeance and retribution cult might do things that overrode its willingness to give blowjobs to the oligarchs, because such emotions get in the way of rational thinking.  And so laugh at those dumb shits all you want to, because they missed seeing things that it was their job to see and make sense of.

    But cut some slack to those who didn’t get to spend their work time trying to make sense of Trump.

  32. 32.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 8:22 pm

    @gene108:

    Popular support is secondary to doctrinal purity that believers must observe, and non-believers are forced to obey.

    They’ll force me to do jack shit

  33. 33.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 8:22 pm

    So, here’s what I did in the few moments I had this week to call my two Republican US Senators and one Republican US Rep.

    Called my US Rep. Three times. Was “disconnected” after being “placed on hold” each time after asking why Rep. Mike Ezell, former sheriff with many years in law enforcement, supported Donald Trump’s pardon of the J6 rioters who attacked the US Capitol. After last “disconnect”, called back, had call answered but no one said anything.

    Called my junior US Senator (and Bible-thumpin’ Confederate apologist), Cindy Hyde-Smith. Asked why she supported the pardons and the suspension of Congressionally-allocated funds for WIC, SNAP, the NIH, etc. Staffer said he was unaware of the Senator’s position on those issues to which I responded she’d had more than a few days (and more than a week in the case of the J6 pardons) to come to  position and I, as a constituent, was entitled to an answer.  The staffer assured me he’d have someone call me back to which I replied that I already knew from experience no one in the Senator’s office was ever going to return my call with an actual answer to my question and that I would call back in a couple of days expecting an actual answer.

    Called my senior US Senator (and defense hawk) Roger Wicker (who is now chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee), and asked the same question.  The staffer immediately attempted to correct me, stating that the senator had expressed no such support to which I immediately pointed out the senator had ample opportunity to publicly air his opposition and had apparently decided to not do so, thus effectively sanctioning the Trump Admin’s actions (i.e.; silence is complicity). I left him with the same demand that I get an answer the next time I called and that said answer should not be a boilerplate “your concerns are important to me”.

    Folks, I’m pissed.

  34. 34.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 8:23 pm

    @NotMax:

    Unfortunately, a Residence Inn.  No bar.  :>(

    But, I did stop by BevMo today after my grocery run.

  35. 35.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 8:23 pm

    @Nina:

    Wait until those Wall Street analysts realize they can no longer rely on the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    This.

  36. 36.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 8:24 pm

    @dmsilev:

    I guess they thought they were going to get 2016 Trump

  37. 37.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 8:25 pm

    @Nukular Biskits:

    Good for you!

  38. 38.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 8:25 pm

    @frosty:

    Yeah, but given how long I’ve been out here (and will be at least another couple of weeks), I’m reluctant to do that.

    Plus, I usually post from my laptop, not mobile, and Windows is notorious for  sucking up bandwidth when it can for updates, etc.

  39. 39.

    H.E.Wolf

    February 1, 2025 at 8:26 pm

    @dmsilev: ​The Past Nazis definitely had better fashion sense.

     I refute it thus:
    rarehistoricalphotos.com/laughing-at-auschwitz-1942/

  40. 40.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 8:26 pm

    @dmsilev:

    @different-church-lady: The Past Nazis definitely had better fashion sense.

    I must be tired.  I swear I read that twice and saw Pasta Nazis.

  41. 41.

    Sister Golden Bear

    February 1, 2025 at 8:26 pm

    @bbleh:

    they want us back in the closet, where we belong.

    More like they want us dead.

  42. 42.

    SpaceUnit

    February 1, 2025 at 8:27 pm

    I am very much not-reassured by Dana Houle’s take.

  43. 43.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 8:27 pm

    @lowtechcyclist:

    It’s not like Trump made it a secret of what he was going to do. If they choose to stick their heads in the sand and ignore what he, his campaign, and surrogates actually said he’d do, that’s their fault

  44. 44.

    Lobo

    February 1, 2025 at 8:29 pm

    Because everything is upside down, crazy and absurd.  I bring you the following song to lift your spirits:  For the Love of Big Brother

    Yes, my mind is on 1984. Are we really that far away from it?

  45. 45.

    bbleh

    February 1, 2025 at 8:29 pm

    @TONYG: it’s been that way for a looooong time, as anyone who’s ever lived near the Potomac in DC can attest.  And pilots and ATCs and air safety people have been screaming about it for years, especially as the ATC staffing problem has got worse.

    But I wouldn’t look for any kind of serious, transparent accountability in this case.  There are too many institutional and political incentives to divert and/or bury the story.  The Senile Orange Guy has tried a couple throwaways already — first it was DEI, then it was the helicopter pilot (not sure whether it was a Trans person or a woman, but we’re definitely looking into it).  And now please if you would all pay attention to the idiotic tariffs we’ve just imposed, thank you.

    (As to Hegseth, there’s been a lot of worry expressed that a lot of the military might be sympathetic to a Trump-led authoritarian takeover, and for sure there are some who would, but I almost can’t imagine a worse pick for SecDef in that regard.)

  46. 46.

    Starfish (she/her)

    February 1, 2025 at 8:30 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Oh! That is really tough!

    How does her student feel about it? Are lessons a welcome part of routine and a distraction from the rest of things that are a mess, or are they not feeling it?

  47. 47.

    TBone

    February 1, 2025 at 8:31 pm

    I came across a word in German I hadn’t seen so I looked it up. Dolchstoßlegende

    And learned (during the short time I’ve had to FA online today).

    en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth

    I haven’t had time to fully delve yet, but this is fascinating and relevant, I think.

  48. 48.

    WaterGirl

    February 1, 2025 at 8:32 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Imagine losing a loved one in that crash and seeing that awful display from the First Felon.

  49. 49.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 8:32 pm

    @bbleh:

    it’s been that way for a looooong time, as anyone who’s ever lived near the Potomac in DC can attest. And pilots and ATCs and air safety people have been screaming about it for years

    Why didn’t Biden’s FAA do anything about it? Surely they didn’t need Congress?

    But I wouldn’t look for any kind of serious, transparent accountability in this case. There are too many institutional and political incentives to divert and/or bury the story. The Senile Orange Guy has tried a couple throwaways already — first it was DEI, then it was the helicopter pilot (not sure whether it was a Trans person or a woman, but we’re definitely looking into it). And now please if you would all pay attention to the idiotic tariffs we’ve just imposed, thank you.

    I don’t think the NTSB is going to stop looking into one of the deadliest air disasters since 2001

  50. 50.

    Ohio Mom

    February 1, 2025 at 8:32 pm

    I’m still stuck on Musk’s hack into the Social Security records.

    Are we all going to experience all kinds of identity theft for the rest of our lives? (already lived through that once.)

    Are our benefits going to be toyed with? What is Musk going to do with it?!!!

    This is the genie out of the bottle, there is no going back.

    I also feel for the SSA employees. They are already understaffed and now they have to deal with everything that will be cascading out of this security breach.

  51. 51.

    RaflW

    February 1, 2025 at 8:33 pm

    I may well go back to Costco tomorrow to buy more non-perishable or at least long-dated groceries. And gas up the car, even though it’s not that low.

    It sounds like the Canadians are resolute that they’re going to fight fire with fire. I’d imagine the new, smart Mexican leader will chart a good path too. (At least as good as can be in a trade war that will hurt lots of folks, but I mean like “not capitulate to nonsense”).

  52. 52.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 8:34 pm

    @TONYG:

    They aren’t just any training flights, they are Executive Transport training flights, you know the helicopters that whisk the High and the Mighty in and out of DC.

  53. 53.

    Melancholy Jaques

    February 1, 2025 at 8:35 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:

    Dana Houle is not wrong, but the real problem with Nazi comparisons is that they don’t have the impact that we would expect Nazi comparisons to have. Maybe Nazi comparisons are played out and we need something more recent, something that does have impact.

  54. 54.

    WaterGirl

    February 1, 2025 at 8:35 pm

    @bbleh:

    As to Hegseth, there’s been a lot of worry expressed that a lot of the military might be sympathetic to a Trump-led authoritarian takeover, and for sure there are some who would, but I almost can’t imagine a worse pick for SecDef in that regard.)

    Not quite sure what you mean by worse there, as it could be taken two ways.  Guessing you mean that even those who might be sympathetic to a Trump-led authoritarian takeover of the military would be disgusted by Hegseth, which would make that takeover less successful?

  55. 55.

    Suzanne

    February 1, 2025 at 8:35 pm

    @Nukular Biskits:

    Folks, I’m pissed.

    Well, good on you for calling.

    I was traveling this week, but I called my Rep and Fetterman last week. I know I should call McCormick’s office, but I’m dreading it. I’ll call on Monday.

  56. 56.

    Starfish (she/her)

    February 1, 2025 at 8:35 pm

    @SpaceUnit: From the outside, it appears that the banker bros and the other finance bros are not on the Trump train. They like to make money, and Trump is interfering with their ability to do that.

    Jamie Dimond told them to kiss his ass on the DEI nonsense.

    I am encouraged that the finance bros are being critical.

    Most of the econ blogs I used to follow were crazy rightwingers. Are there any that are okay and not a bunch of rightwingers?

  57. 57.

    Peke Daddy

    February 1, 2025 at 8:35 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear: Hostile takeover of language and vocabulary.

  58. 58.

    TBone

    February 1, 2025 at 8:35 pm

    @different-church-lady:

    See comment #47 for parallel parable about rewriting history and, well, everything else…like science.

  59. 59.

    bbleh

    February 1, 2025 at 8:38 pm

    @WaterGirl: right, sorry — was just about to modify comment.  He’s a public disgrace, and that’s really off-putting to a lot of military folks, which I think would materially weaken any potential support for some Trump-led quasi-revolution.

  60. 60.

    Ohio Mom

    February 1, 2025 at 8:39 pm

    @Jay: Makes me wonder how different that map would look of that Trans-Pacific trade agreement had happened.

  61. 61.

    Starfish (she/her)

    February 1, 2025 at 8:39 pm

    @Nukular Biskits: I called my mom who did not vote in that last election, and she was pissed too. She said she knows some Mexican American who is getting pulled over for racial profiling. Dude is carrying his birth certificate with him in addition to his license. The police are telling him that is not enough so he is going to go get a passport now.

    She said the people around her cannot take the lightest criticism of Trump. I hope it is because they know they screwed up.

    Given that Mike Ezell’s office does not know how to answer phones, write some letters and find out if they know how to read.

    I think organized letter writing, as in meeting with friends to do it, helps build political opposition. But it can be tough to find friends to do this with.

  62. 62.

    WaterGirl

    February 1, 2025 at 8:39 pm

    @SpaceUnit:

    I am very much not-reassured by Dana Houle’s take

    You mean “these Nazis aren’t going to be as bad as the last ones” isn’t the take one would hope for?

  63. 63.

    Quinerly

    February 1, 2025 at 8:39 pm

    May have been posted. I took a mental health day and did a news black out until about an hr ago.

    The female helicopter pilot’s name and background released. I made the mistake of reading the comments in The New York Post. She’s being vilified over there.

    newsobserver.com/news/local/counties/durham-county/article299571934.html?utm_campaign=trueanthem…

  64. 64.

    PsiFighter37

    February 1, 2025 at 8:41 pm

    It’s not a good feeling to root for another country (allies, no less) to hit America back hard in an economic fashion. The fun times we live in.

  65. 65.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 8:41 pm

    @RaflW:

    An effect of all this uncertainty makes it difficult to make plans for future, such education/career plans, retirement planning, and major purchases, etc.

    I saw at least two idiots today with Trump gear, a 30-40 something father with his son in a hideous Trump 2024 Christmas sweater and then a 60-something guy with a hat with a photo of the first Trump assassination attempt, where he had his stupid fist raised. Guy wears it every time I see him. He looks like a fucking doofus. I noticed he had a GM jacket on one day, so apparently he was an auto worker at one point.

    I just want to scream at these people

  66. 66.

    frosty

    February 1, 2025 at 8:42 pm

    @Nukular Biskits: That didn’t make sense to me. Apologies if you already know all of this. When you use the phone as a hotspot it becomes the wi-fi provider; no need to surf B-J on mobile, you can use the laptop with the hotspot wi-fi.

    We use a Jetpack on the road; same idea with dedicated hardware. When we’ve overused it and Verizon throttles it back we go to the phones.

    You’ll need unlimited data on your phone contract, probably.

    ETA: It all depends on good cell service, obvs.

  67. 67.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 8:42 pm

    @Suzanne:

    When I get back home, I’m planning on visiting their respective offices and asking even more questions, including why none of them will hold “town hall meetings”.

  68. 68.

    Sister Golden Bear

    February 1, 2025 at 8:44 pm

    @TONYG:

    I’m still waiting for a clear explanation of why the U.S. Army thought that it was a good idea to hold Blackhawk helicopter training exercises in the vicinity of commercial airline flight paths.

    They were following an FAA-approved helicopter transit path through that airspace. Whether there should be one is a different question, and there’s been numerous concerns raised about that airspace being dangerously overcrowded.

    That said, while as typically happens with airplane crashes, there’s multiple holes in the Swiss cheese that lined up (I’ve talked about the details in previous threads) — and the most likely scenario is the helo accidentally focused on the jet behind the doomed plane, which was landing on a different runway. But… had the helo stayed within its required 200 ceiling max for that part of the route, it would be a near miss. (It climbed past 300 feet and hit the jet somewhere between 300-400 feet.) Why the helo unexpectedly climbed at the last minute is one of the key unanswered questions at this point.

    So while obviously it was a tragic outcome, there was nothing inherently out of the ordinary for the helo flying that route.

    FWIW, only experienced helicopter pilots are allowed to fly that route because the difficulty involved. I know the pilot in command was doing a “checkride,” where he was being assessed, but I don’t know if it was a general qualification/re-qualification or specially to be approved to fly that route.

    Horrible incident but nothing nefarious or negligent about the helo flying that route in itself.

  69. 69.

    Lyrebird

    February 1, 2025 at 8:44 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear:

    @bbleh: I think the practical effect on science will be, good science will have substantially less money behind it for a while.  But I don’t think that — contra politics — there will be much if any backsliding.

    I hope you are right.  I hope it is like when the Westboro Baptist horror show came to New Hampshire to protest some inside baseball progress in a different religtion, Episcopalians electing a gay bishop.  Many otherwise oblivious undergrads at the state u thronged the event in their “Gay? Fine by me!” t shirts (link to a different school, same shirt) ETA: they showed up to block the Westboro haters

    In the same vein, I hope lots of air traffic and airline people who might normally lean right wing but have some decency were horrified by the disgusting response to the air tragedy.  I hope it weakens the fascist use of DEI as something horrible.

  70. 70.

    SuzieC

    February 1, 2025 at 8:45 pm

    @Ohio Mom: That is the question that haunts me too.  What does he intend to do with the information?   Loot the treasury?  Intercept the flow of benefit checks?  Investigate recipients for thoughtcrimes?

  71. 71.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 8:45 pm

    @Quinerly:

    Never read the Post, and never read the comments.

  72. 72.

    frosty

    February 1, 2025 at 8:47 pm

    @Nukular Biskits: In my few years of calling, I’ve talked to a real person once, maybe twice. Never from a Senator, just from my Republican rep.

    I’ll get back on the phone again as soon as I draft a new script*. Like, Senator, you voted to confirm the Treasury Secretary and he just handed the keys to the vault to Musk. What do you plan to do about that now?

    * For me, I gotta have it written down to leave a coherent voicemail message.

  73. 73.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 8:47 pm

    @Quinerly:

    JFC, can’t they even wait for the NTSB to finish it’s investigation? It could take months or years to conclude the factors that caused the crash, most of them likely having little to do with pilot error

    Like, and even she did make a mistake, there’s plenty of male pilots that have made errors that led to tragedy

  74. 74.

    Ohio Mom

    February 1, 2025 at 8:48 pm

    @Starfish (she/her): Atrios (who has a PhD in economics) likes the Calculated Risk blog and The Big Picture, BarryRitholtz’s blog. Both are usually too technical for me.

    Then there’s Paul Krugman, who probably isn’t technical enough to count as an econmics blog. I think of him as a general pundit.

  75. 75.

    SpaceUnit

    February 1, 2025 at 8:48 pm

    @Starfish (she/her):

    Paul Krugman was featured here on BJ recently.  He’s probably the only economist blogger I would trust right now.

    Everybody else seems to be the frog in the boiling water.

  76. 76.

    RaflW

    February 1, 2025 at 8:49 pm

    @Suzanne: I called Sen. Tina Smith’s office twice, Sen. Klobuchar once, emailed Rep. Omar, and using the zip for our WI cabin, called Sen. Ron Johnson and Rep. Bryan Steil.
    Messages varied, but in general it was: WTF is happening, this “pause” chaos is unacceptable. (For the Dem senators, I focused on being more clear that Trump’s cabinet choices are all bad.)

  77. 77.

    bbleh

    February 1, 2025 at 8:49 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I would assume there WILL be a factual accounting, something like (speculating from what I”ve seen so far) the helicopter was out of position, various monitoring and warning systems were inoperative or insufficient, the pilot was operating under visual flight rules and apparently was unable to avoid the collision — all entirely correct and very mechanical.  But to TONYG’s point, I would guess there will be little or no mention of why military training flights operate in such a crowded airspace, and even if it’s alluded to — perhaps some mention of the general overcrowding of that particular space, or perhaps of the staffing problems at that particular ATC facility — either those more fundamental issues will go unaddressed (perhaps because of editing) or any relevant recommendations will be ignored.

  78. 78.

    Quinerly

    February 1, 2025 at 8:50 pm

    @Jay:

    I know. The NY Post had more pictures. That’s what pulled me in. I was weak.

  79. 79.

    tobie

    February 1, 2025 at 8:50 pm

    I wish I could say people care about what’s going on at Treadury and OPM right now but they don’t. But hit ’em with stagflation and they’ll wake up. It’s a pity the rest of us are going to suffer too.

  80. 80.

    Starfish (she/her)

    February 1, 2025 at 8:51 pm

    @frosty: My experience with Mississippi politicians is that no one is doing any pro-active constituent outreach like town halls or monthly calls where they call everyone’s phone and you hear someone’s crazy nana ask the most rambling question or anything so you have to go haunt them and MAYBE you get to talk to a staffer.

  81. 81.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 8:52 pm

    @frosty:

    No apologies required.  Yeah, I may come across as a Luddite but I’m not … LOL!

    I actually do use my phone’s hotspot feature at night when I’m reading my Kindle in bed.  It’s bizarre but the hotel’s wifi signal drops off precipitously the 15 feet between where my laptop is sitting on the desk in the “living area” and where the nightstand by the bed is.

    And, if I know Ms. Biskits (this plan is hers), we probably do have unlimited* data but I’m old school and remember the day of ridiculous charges when you exceeded your data limit.

    *Unlimited being a relative term, depending on your provider and plan.

  82. 82.

    Sister Golden Bear

    February 1, 2025 at 8:52 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    Why didn’t Biden’s FAA do anything about it? Surely they didn’t need Congress?

    The FAA can’t just unilaterally do stuff. Well, at least they couldn’t in prior administrations.

    Buttigieg asked for additional funding for more air traffic controllers, including DCA. Congress denied it. Congress also approved a bill — over the objections of the FAA and the two VA senators — to allow even more flights out of DCA.

    Because Congress critters are addicted to the easy access to DCA and don’t want to have to drive out to Dulles.

  83. 83.

    Bostondreams

    February 1, 2025 at 8:53 pm

    Bristish Columbia removes ‘red state’ liquor from government stores and bans their sale.

  84. 84.

    SpaceUnit

    February 1, 2025 at 8:53 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    Houle’s critical mistake is in not recognizing that today’s fascists think that Hitler didn’t go far enough.

    We’re basically on a ride that ain’t got no brakes.

  85. 85.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 8:54 pm

    @frosty:

    * For me, I gotta have it written down to leave a coherent voicemail message.

    I try to have the major points written down in front of me as well.

    One other thing: As I think I mentioned earlier this week in a fly-by post, Hyde-Smith’s offices weren’t answering any of her calls, in DC or the in-state offices. My guess is that they were getting a LOT of angry calls.

  86. 86.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 8:54 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    She wasn’t the Pilot. It was a male Pilot with 500 hours on the stick, a male Pilot/Instructor with 1000 hours in the copilots seat. She was just an observer.

  87. 87.

    EmbraceYourInnerCrone

    February 1, 2025 at 8:54 pm

    @Ohio Mom: All questions going through my mind this year. Spouse and I live on SS and our Navy pensions. Get health care at the VA including the prescriptions I need to not die of a stroke. Was really hoping not to experience a second global pandemic the first one was enough fun. Going to go find a new series to watch. Maybe Rogue Heroes   Bonus Nazi punching!

  88. 88.

    Quinerly

    February 1, 2025 at 8:56 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    I guess you have read that originally her family didn’t want the Army to release her name and info about her. Family changed their minds.

    And there was this:

    “A rumor spread on Thursday that a female transgender soldier by the name of Jo Ellis was the mystery pilot.”

    thedailybeast.com/family-of-female-pilot-in-dc-crash-asks-army-to-keep-name-under-wraps/

  89. 89.

    frosty

    February 1, 2025 at 8:56 pm

    @Nukular Biskits: Okay, Mr. Nukular Luddite, here’s more advice. I found out I can download 4 or 5 books to my Kindle from Libby, put it on Airplane Mode, send them back to the library and take as long as I want to read them. Just don’t toggle Airplane off and hit Sync before you’re done!

    So basically, I’m never online when I’m reading it.

  90. 90.

    Mai Naem mobil

    February 1, 2025 at 8:57 pm

    I filled gas today. Paid $3.39. I know the gas station I was at is pretty much the lowest in town so it’s not like I went to a high price gas station. I haven’t filled gas for probably ~10 days. I’ve been paying ~$3.00. I so wanted  a sticker with tfg’s ugly mug and an ‘I did this =>’ right next to it. Anyhoo, there was no gradual increase here. 40c right off the bat? I don’t think people are going to like this at all.

  91. 91.

    different-church-lady

    February 1, 2025 at 8:58 pm

    @dmsilev: ​

    “’It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it he’s a sociopath.”

  92. 92.

    frosty

    February 1, 2025 at 8:59 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):​Congress is the reason National Airport hasn’t been closed and redeveloped. They like their flights just a few minutes from the office. Dulles and BWI are So. Far. Away (sob).

    The delegations from Maryland and Virginia repeatedly unanimously write bills to close the airport but their colleagues won’t do it.

    @Sister Golden Bear: ​
     Yep

  93. 93.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 8:59 pm

    @Starfish (she/her):

    To my knowledge, neither Roger Wicker nor Cindy Hyde-Smith have EVER held a public-invited event where constituents could directly speak to, criticize, question them. Ever.

    Rep. Ezell has held, I think, a grand total of two townhall meetings both in the middle of the work day at the nether regions of his district (in BFE, MS).  I suspect that was intentional as he knew only retirees and business owners would be able to attend, not the average working stiff.

    I submit they do NOT want to hear from actual living/breathing Mississippians who aren’t donating to their campaigns or who agree with them ideologically.

  94. 94.

    Suzanne

    February 1, 2025 at 8:59 pm

    @RaflW: I usually call the local offices, and I have better luck getting a person. Sometimes I get spitty when I leave messages. I remember once Mr. Suzanne walked in while I was leaving a message for Martha McSally, and after I hung up, he was like, “Oh, damn….”

    I didn’t do as much volunteering, phone calling, etc. as I should have this cycle. I feel somewhat guilty about it. In past cycles, I have been much more active.

  95. 95.

    Ohio Mom

    February 1, 2025 at 9:00 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear: Ohio Dad and I had that conversation earlier today. He lived in Northern Virginia for close to twenty years and insists the Baltimore airport is less driving time. So that makes two airports Congress critters refuse to use.

  96. 96.

    Ksmiami

    February 1, 2025 at 9:00 pm

    @Starfish (she/her): Krugman, Brad Delong

  97. 97.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 9:00 pm

    @Jay:

    That makes it even worse. She wasn’t even flying the thing, wasn’t even the instructor, and the chuds are attacking her. That’s despicable. So much for “don’t speak ill of the dead”

    @Quinerly:

    I’d heard about that. It’s as predictable as it as sad. I wonder if the family regrets releasing her name now

  98. 98.

    different-church-lady

    February 1, 2025 at 9:01 pm

    @Starfish (she/her): Fuck, when you’ve lost Jamie Dimond…

  99. 99.

    Quinerly

    February 1, 2025 at 9:01 pm

    @Jay:

    “Lobach was one of two pilots on the Black Hawk helicopter that crashed in the American Airlines flight around 9 p.m. Wednesday while performing a training mission, according to the Army. Both aircraft fell into the Potomac River, and all 67 people about the flight died, the Associated Press reported.”

  100. 100.

    different-church-lady

    February 1, 2025 at 9:02 pm

    @Starfish (she/her):

    She said the people around her cannot take the lightest criticism of Trump.

    TURN THE HEAT UP.

  101. 101.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 9:02 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear:

    @frosty:

    Thanks for the info. So those members of Congress are collectively responsible for those people’s deaths

  102. 102.

    prostratedragon

    February 1, 2025 at 9:03 pm

    Live stream of Trudeau press conference in response to tariff announcement. He hadn’t arrived yet as of a couple minutes ago.

  103. 103.

    schrodingers_cat

    February 1, 2025 at 9:03 pm

    @dmsilev: I would say 10 connected devices and about 1800 sqft two story home. Do you think I need a mesh system or is a router enough.

  104. 104.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 9:04 pm

    @frosty:

    You use your Kindle for reading?!?!?!?!?!?!?! LOL!

    I mostly use my Kindle Fire while laying in bed to peruse mindless stupid memes over at memebase.com, icanhas.cheezburger.com and failblog.cheezburger.com.

    After a day of dealing with technical stuff, all I want is mindless fun entertainment to wind down.

  105. 105.

    Quinerly

    February 1, 2025 at 9:05 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    From the piece:

    “Lobach was one of two pilots on the Black Hawk helicopter that crashed in the American Airlines flight around 9 p.m. Wednesday while performing a training mission, according to the Army……. the Associated Press reported.”

    Note that there was a Biden WH connection also.

  106. 106.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 9:05 pm

    @different-church-lady:

    She said the people around her cannot take the lightest criticism of Trump.

    TURN THE HEAT UP.

    MORE!

  107. 107.

    Matt McIrvin

    February 1, 2025 at 9:06 pm

    @Melancholy Jaques: We’re looking at some unholy combination of the Confederate States of America, a Mafia bust-out and Pol Pot’s Cambodia.

  108. 108.

    Renie

    February 1, 2025 at 9:06 pm

    So now JPMorgan economists are concerned about the tariffs.  It was just a week ago Jamie Diamond was telling everyone to ‘chill’ out about the tariffs.  Guess if it hurts their bottom line, a different story comes out.

  109. 109.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 9:09 pm

    @Starfish (she/her):

    Dude is carrying his birth certificate with him in addition to his license. The police are telling him that is not enough so he is going to go get a passport now.

    How is that not enough?

    ETA: I don’t have a US passport. All I have is my DL and a certified copy of my Certificate of Live Birth. I mean I’m a white guy, so obviously I don’t face the kind of risks this guy does, but if they can do it to him, why couldn’t they do it to me if I were deemed an enemy of the state?

  110. 110.

    Miss Bianca

    February 1, 2025 at 9:10 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: OMG. :(

  111. 111.

    Suzanne

    February 1, 2025 at 9:11 pm

    In terms of economics blogs, I will note that I read Marginal Revolution every once in a while, but that’s because I want to surveil the crazy right wing. They’re so freaked out about birth rates and feminism.

    I have historically tried to keep tabs on the crazy — most especially Rod Dreher. It takes a toll on me!

  112. 112.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 9:12 pm

    @Quinerly:

    Of course there was. The family shouldn’t have agreed to release her name

  113. 113.

    Martin

    February 1, 2025 at 9:13 pm

    @lowtechcyclist: Here’s the thing about expecting normies to understand what they were voting for: those JP Morgan economists are paid well to pay attention to stuff like this, and they didn’t see it coming.

    Of course they did. But the upside of Trump breaking the economy the way they wanted it broken was good enough that the downside of breaking the economy the way they didn’t want it broken was worth the gamble. If they are saying they didn’t see it coming, they’re lying. Of course they did. They just didn’t think it was likely he would do the thing he said he would do.

  114. 114.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 9:13 pm

    @Quinerly:

    There were 3 crew, 2 Pilots and a Pilot/Instructor on board.

    She was not at the stick, all the Army is confirming is that she was a pilot, was onboard, and one of the dead.

  115. 115.

    MagdaInBlack

    February 1, 2025 at 9:16 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Because there are no longer rules.

  116. 116.

    Another Scott

    February 1, 2025 at 9:17 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear: +1

    The altitude question is key, AFAICS.

    Lots and lots of helicopters and Ospreys and similar things use that route along the river every day.  FAA – Baltimore-Washington Helicopter Route Map (3 page .pdf). (The 3rd page shows the 6 DC routes.)
    Most of them fly low – below 200 feet – when anywhere near DCA, for very good reasons.  :-(

    Of course they have to have training flights to do it, because it is an important route for VIPs and because there are so many rules about the airspace in DC.

    I know the professionals will do their best to get to the bottom of what happened and why and what to do to prevent it (or something like it) from happening again.  I do worry, though, that Donnie will take a Sharpie to it because he already told everyone that it was *** and everyone knows he’s never wrong about anything.

    Grr…

    Peace and comfort to the innocents.

    :-(

    Thanks.

    Best wishes,
    Scott.

  117. 117.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 9:17 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    Driver’s Licenses don’t denote Citizenship, they are valid as a form of ID, (as to whom you are) and that you are Licensed to operate a motor vehicle.

    For the second part of the question is, they can. They have already tried to claim that a Military ID was fake, the DL was fake, and the Passport was fake.

    But you can pass the paperbag test, so you are good for now

  118. 118.

    Glory b

    February 1, 2025 at 9:18 pm

    For Black History month and in my city, Freedom House Ambulance Service began the first paramedic service.

    bsky.app/profile/cwebbonline.com/post/3lh4rtxurhk2g

  119. 119.

    gene108

    February 1, 2025 at 9:19 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    JFC, can’t they even wait for the NTSB to finish it’s investigation? It could take months or years to conclude the factors that caused the crash

    Waiting doesn’t drive the political narrative. Republicans have been blurting out their ideas before facts are in for years. Trump is next level in making statements based on lies that set what people talk about, especially his cultists.

  120. 120.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 9:20 pm

    @Jay:

    It’s enough for voting. It serves as valid state ID. I even have the star on it that allows you to fly and enter federal buildings.

  121. 121.

    Quinerly

    February 1, 2025 at 9:21 pm

    @Jay:

    Well, everything I have read about the other 2 on board has been misleading. Not here to argue. I guess you are saying O’Hara was “on the stick.”

    The other 2 in the helicopter:

    “Ryan O’Hara, a husband with a 1-year-old son, was the crew chief of the helicopter………”

    “Chief Warrant Officer 2 Andrew Eaves of Mississippi was another crew member onboard the helicopter……”

    Forbes

  122. 122.

    Starfish (she/her)

    February 1, 2025 at 9:21 pm

    @Ohio Mom: Thank you. I follow Calculated Risk. I just added The Big Picture back to my reading.

  123. 123.

    Geminid

    February 1, 2025 at 9:21 pm

    @Renie: I wonder how the New York Stock Exchange will react on Monday to this weekend’s news, including Friday night’s. Not well, I suspect. I guess we’ll know something in 37 hours.

    Trump shifted his approach on Covid in March of 2020, when the stock market started crashing. That was an easy adjustment, though. He’s gone too far now to shift so easily.

  124. 124.

    Miss Bianca

    February 1, 2025 at 9:23 pm

    @different-church-lady: You mean, the same Jamie Dimond who said we should all just “get over it” about tariffs? Or do I have him confused with some other big bankster?

  125. 125.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 1, 2025 at 9:25 pm

    @Starfish (she/her): He said the student insisted on playing today. I suspect it brought her some solace.

  126. 126.

    Miss Bianca

    February 1, 2025 at 9:26 pm

    @Martin: Why is it that nobody believes the Democrats when they say they’re going to do something to help them, but also never believe the Republicans when they say they’re going to do something to hurt them?

  127. 127.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 9:26 pm

    @Quinerly:

    So you have an Enhanced Drivers License.

    Not many do.

  128. 128.

    Sister Golden Bear

    February 1, 2025 at 9:26 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): @bbleh:

    The consensus from various pilot analyses I’ve seen (plus my own knowledge from being a licensed drone pilot, which covers much of the same core knowledge as regular pilots) is that this is what happened:

    • Usually there’s two controllers, one handling airplanes that other handling helicopters, but they were shorthand so a single control was doing both.
    • Flight 5432 was originally going to land at runway 10, but a few miles out from landing, ATC rerouted it to runway 33. This is less common, but apparently not infrequently done with regional jets that can use the smaller runway 33. This change in route required 5432 to hug the east side of the Potomac and then turn left just before landing.
    • Doing this 1) Put them over the helicopter transit route through that airspace, but normally this isn’t an issue because the altitude separation between the transit route and the glide path. 2) Meant 5432 was moving directly towards the helo. Which in turn meant they appeared stationary to the helo — and it’s really hard to judge distances in the air especially at night. Which meant it was easier to lose them in the surrounding city lights. I’ve done both night sailing and a little night flying and this is all too easy to happen.
    • The helo pilots were probably using night vision googles, which both limit peripheral vision and are prone to light overload in urban areas (kind of the equivalent of too bright headlights from oncoming traffic).
    • Airplanes and helicopters use different frequencies to talk with ATC, so both pilots had less situational awareness than if had been plane/plane, or helo/helo. I don’t know enough about ATC procedures to know if there had been two controllers whether more complete info would’ve been relayed to both pilots. (ATC communications at a busy area like DCA are usually pretty terse because there’s so much going on.)
    • As mentioned, it seems like the helo pilot mistook 5432 for the jet behind 5432, which was on approach to runway 10. (It’s possible they didn’t realize 5432 had been ordered by ATC to change runways or didn’t see it for other reasons mentioned above.) The helo pilot verified twice to ATC that they had a visual on what they thought was 5432.
    • There’s been mention of a traffic avoidance system but that only works at higher altitudes. When landing at airport like DCA there’s too much ground clutter and it would throw so many alerts that it would be useless and distracting.
    • ATC granted the helo permission for “visual separation” (i.e. the helo was primarily responsible for avoiding other air traffic) and ordered the helo to pass behind 5432. But assuming the helo was tracking the wrong airplane, they would’ve have been moving in the right direction to do so, and it’s quite possible they never even saw 5432.
    • While the pilot of 5432 was focused on landing, the co-pilots was responsible for watching out for other traffic. It’s quite possible the co-pilot never saw the helo (which was low and the airport is surrounded by city lights), and if they did, they may not been alarmed because the helicopter transit route requires them to stay at 200 feet or less — which is 200+ feet below the glide path.
    • Despite all that, it would’ve been a near miss if the helo (for reasons currently unknown) climbed at the last minute up past 300 feet where it hit the jet.
  129. 129.

    Mai Naem mobil

    February 1, 2025 at 9:28 pm

    It’s Jamie Dimon not Diamond and the guy has zero principles. He’ll suck up to whoever is in office. He sucked up big time to Obama. Anyhow, he’s getting up their in age. I wouldn’t be surprised if he retires and gets his golden parachute in the next couple of years. At the end of the day he’s got enough money that if something happens he and his extended family can move to some safe western country without issues.

  130. 130.

    Quinerly

    February 1, 2025 at 9:28 pm

    @Jay:

    Enhanced driver’s license? Nope.

  131. 131.

    WaterGirl

    February 1, 2025 at 9:28 pm

    @Nukular Biskits: I think I like angry Nukular Biskits!

  132. 132.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 9:29 pm

    @Quinerly:

    The helicopter had a crew of three Army personnel:

    Captain Rebecca Lobach, 28, from Durham, North Carolina, who was the pilot flying and undergoing her annual night evaluation flight.[28][29]
    an evaluator for the pilot, Chief Warrant Officer 2 Andrew Eaves, 39, of Great Mills, Maryland who was the pilot monitoring and speaking to air traffic control.[7][30]
    the crew chief, Staff Sergeant Ryan O’Hara, 29, from Lilburn, Georgia.[31][12]

    Things change as actual facts come in.

  133. 133.

    Matt McIrvin

    February 1, 2025 at 9:30 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    I don’t think the NTSB is going to stop looking into one of the deadliest air disasters since 2001

    They will if the NTSB no longer exists, which may well be coming.

  134. 134.

    Suzanne

    February 1, 2025 at 9:31 pm

    @Miss Bianca: I think it’s because Republicans have their own version of hopium.

  135. 135.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 9:31 pm

    @Geminid:

    I checked in on the Bogleheads forum I used to lurk on a few years back. It’s pretty much crickets city on those tariffs, because that’s a “political topic” and thus off limits:

    If readers can’t do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here. Examples include:

    US or world economic, political, tax, health care and climate policies

    conspiracy theories of any type

    discussions of the crimes, shortcomings or stupidity of other people, whether they be political figures, celebrities, CEOs, Fed chairmen, subprime mortgage borrowers, lottery winners, federal “bailout” recipients, poor people, rich people, etc. Of course, you are welcome to talk about the stupid financial things you have done.

     

    In a thread about the impact of the tariffs before it was locked, a regular had this to say:

    OP,

    The market will be highly volatile. And, that is a good thing for someone like me with a 60/40 portfolio.

    We’ll see how well that works out for him.

    I have investments in a Roth IRA, invested in the Vanguard Target 2060 fund, with a 90/10 breakdown. 60/40 US/Intl stocks and some other breakdown between global and US bonds

  136. 136.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 9:31 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    “That’s my secret, Captain. I’m always angry.”

    ETA:  If I didn’t have to work to pay my bills, I’d be far more involved in civic activities and be harassing elected officials every single day of the week.

  137. 137.

    Geminid

    February 1, 2025 at 9:33 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear: One thing that struck me in videos of the collision was how many lights there were on either side of the river and how bright they were.

  138. 138.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 9:33 pm

    @Quinerly:

    I think Jay meant that as a reply to me

  139. 139.

    Quinerly

    February 1, 2025 at 9:35 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    All good. I’m out. Have a nice weekend.

  140. 140.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 9:35 pm

    @Quinerly:

    You as well.

  141. 141.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 9:37 pm

    @Quinerly:

    mostpolicyinitiative.org/science-note/citizenship-marking-on-drivers-licenses/

    In some states, (19) you are not required to provide proof of lawful status or a SSN, to get a drivers license. They are marked as “Not for Federal Purposes”.

    Pretty sure that in those 19 States ICE won’t take them as any kinda proof of anything.

  142. 142.

    Ruckus

    February 1, 2025 at 9:38 pm

    @dmsilev:

    I did separate and it works really well. I could likely improve on 9 yr old electronics but it’s working as well as new.

  143. 143.

    Renie

    February 1, 2025 at 9:39 pm

    @Geminid: ​
      Stock market reaction is one of my concerns. My husband and I are retired with a pension, SS and an IRA which was a 401(k). We have the IRA 70/30 but even that conservative I am worried. The 2008 recession hit the market hard and it took us several years to get back where we were in 2008.

  144. 144.

    Suzanne

    February 1, 2025 at 9:39 pm

    @Nukular Biskits:

    If I didn’t have to work to pay my bills, I’d be far more involved in civic activities and be harassing elected officials every single day of the week.

    Damn jobs. ;)

  145. 145.

    Sister Golden Bear

    February 1, 2025 at 9:39 pm

    @Another Scott: FYI, for those looking at the aeronautical chart you shared, the helo was following Route 1, which turns into Route 4, along the east side of the Potomac.

    Runway 10, the original runway 5432 was supposed to land at, is the runway pointing NNE, and runway 33, where it was rerouted to, is the runway pointing NNW.

    Hopefully that’ll make it easier to follow my detailed post about what seems to have happened.

  146. 146.

    Gloria DryGarden

    February 1, 2025 at 9:39 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: That makes it hit even harder doesn’t it? I’m so sorry. These proximal losses, someone you know who knows someone who was close, it ripples out into the community. Thank you for telling us.

  147. 147.

    Sister Golden Bear

    February 1, 2025 at 9:41 pm

    @Geminid: The abundance of city lights around the airport are one of the things that people raised safety concerns about. It’s really easy to lose track of other air traffic at night in those conditions.

  148. 148.

    Ohio Mom

    February 1, 2025 at 9:42 pm

    @prostratedragon: I watched part of that — once Trudeau started taking questions and everything was in French, I bowed out.

    I wish Canada luck in their effort to tough love some sense into Trump and the rest of us USAians. Lord knows our country needs an intervention.

    Two other thoughts, the speech really brought home that lots of economic pain is on the way for everyone on both sides of the border. And I was reminded of all the anti-Spanish, Learn to talk English feeling one comes across here in the U.S. when I saw how gracefully and effortlessly two languages can be officially accommodated.

  149. 149.

    Sister Golden Bear

    February 1, 2025 at 9:43 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: @Suzanne:

    I’m so sorry to hear that.

  150. 150.

    Quinerly

    February 1, 2025 at 9:44 pm

    @Jay:

    I really have no idea why you are commenting to me about my IDs.

  151. 151.

    Gloria DryGarden

    February 1, 2025 at 9:44 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear: will the black box have the information of why they suddenly rose above the 200 foot limit?

    It sounds like a lot of glare and lights and a need to have 180+ vision, which I imagine one person can’t monitor while piloting..

  152. 152.

    tobie

    February 1, 2025 at 9:45 pm

    @Geminid: People with large portfolios will likely get their orders in early to short the market. The rest of us with 401Ks will lose.

    I’m still grappling with what all this means. 70% of US crude comes from Canada and Mexico. Even a 10% tariff will be a shock to the economy. Ayayay.

  153. 153.

    Starfish (she/her)

    February 1, 2025 at 9:45 pm

    @Suzanne: Yes. All my econ blogs were “surveillance of the crazies” type stuff. The YouTube algorithm started putting me down a “freak out about birth rates” rabbit hole. First it starts with Japan and moves on to freaking out about other countries, and eventually it is like “Woah, this is white supremacy.”

  154. 154.

    Renie

    February 1, 2025 at 9:46 pm

    @Mai Naem mobil: ​
      Don’t you think “Diamond” is more appropriate? LOL He had a cancer scare about ten years ago and then emergency heart surgery. There’s speculation he may step down within the next 3 years. He’s 74. He’ll be sitting comfortably regardless of an economic crach.

  155. 155.

    Starfish (she/her)

    February 1, 2025 at 9:49 pm

    @Miss Bianca: Democrats have completely abandoned some areas of the country OR left those areas to incompetent state parties. When a party does that, no one hears them.

  156. 156.

    Suzanne

    February 1, 2025 at 9:49 pm

    @Starfish (she/her): The birth rate thing is twofold: white supremacy, of course, but also a desire to push women out of public life and back into full-time mothering, homemaking, and financial dependency.

  157. 157.

    Geminid

    February 1, 2025 at 9:49 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): You might take a hit on your investments. You should still be ok in the long run as long as you keep your job. A lot of people might not.

  158. 158.

    Nelle

    February 1, 2025 at 9:50 pm

    @Gloria DryGarden: I grew up in Wichita and am really hearing the ripples of this crash into the community.  One of my friends was the teacher and mentor to the young woman about to begin teaching at Howard Law School, a civil rights attorney.

  159. 159.

    chemiclord

    February 1, 2025 at 9:50 pm

    This administration seems like it is trying to prove that fascists really just want the hatred and demonizing of minorities without making their lives at least marginally better in the process.

    Like they think that the Nazis mistake was actually making a swath of middle-class people better off by accident.

  160. 160.

    Starfish (she/her)

    February 1, 2025 at 9:51 pm

    @Mai Naem mobil: Ooh, sorry. I added a ‘d’

  161. 161.

    Nelle

    February 1, 2025 at 9:52 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear: When younger, we used to fly in and out of Seattle, Portland, Midway in Chicago, and a few other airports at night.  I always found it a challenge to separate out the lights.  With more towers with blinking lights, particularly red ones, it is even more so.  (We were always in small, private planes, and you better believe that, while I wasn’t the pilot, I was scanning the environment.)

  162. 162.

    frosty

    February 1, 2025 at 9:53 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): AFAIK a Certificate of Live Birth is not a birth certificate. You need to get one from the Secretary of State of your birth state. It will have a raised seal. The one the hospital gives out is not a legal document.
    ETA: Get a passport. You’ll be required to have a legal birth certificate to get one. Costs $130.​

    ETA2: You need one to visit Canada these days. If they let us visit any more, that is.

  163. 163.

    Starfish (she/her)

    February 1, 2025 at 9:55 pm

    @Quinerly: It probably started with what I was saying about people being stopped to have their IDs checked?

  164. 164.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 9:56 pm

    @Geminid:

    “As long as I keep my job. A lot of people might not”? That’s not very comforting

  165. 165.

    cmorenc

    February 1, 2025 at 9:58 pm

    @bbleh: That’s exactly why Trump picked and.leaned heavily on GOP Senators to vote to affirm – Trump wants a SOD who will tamp down on any military leaders who resist Trump’s use and deployments of troops.

  166. 166.

    Doc Sardonic

    February 1, 2025 at 10:01 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: I use a Netgear Orbi mesh set up, works fairly well, but doesn’t damages things I would like but that is my fault for not digging deeply enough into the specs. One thing I do like is it is the router and 2 satellites, has eliminated the dead spot in my downstairs shop.

  167. 167.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 10:02 pm

    @Suzanne:

    Oh, the good works I could do … (and the absolute political rat-fucking I would do) if I ever win Powerball or Megamillions!

  168. 168.

    Geminid

    February 1, 2025 at 10:04 pm

    @tobie: That 70% figure must be for imports, not total supplies. The US itself is the largest oil producer globally, pumping 13+ million barrels a day. Last I looked Saudi  Arabia and Russia produced a little under 10 million bbl/day.

    But this tariff willl still increase gasoline prices. That is, at until we enter a recession.

  169. 169.

    Captain C

    February 1, 2025 at 10:04 pm

    @Martin:

    They just didn’t think it was likely he would do the thing he said he would do.

    Or that they could stop him in time.

  170. 170.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 10:05 pm

    @Gloria DryGarden:

    Last night you asked me if is was Canadian “Conservative” ideas heading south.

    It’s not. Since the late 70’s Canadian “Conservative” political parties, Federal and Provincial have been bringing Republican party economists, strategists, consultants, politicians, members of the Federalist Society and other Reich Wing Think Tanks up to Canada to consult, speak at conferences, give training sessions, etc.

    Basically, what the ReThugs get away with in the US, say, now, shows up in Canada at the Federal and Provincial level, about 4 years later, (although it is speeding up).

    As a result we had a “Trans Panic” in New Brunswick, where the Conservative Premier tried to legislate bathroom bills in schools, gender in sports, pronoun usage, you know, all the usual.

    There was only 1 Trans student in all of New Brunswick.

    Teachers and parents shut it down and the Cons were ousted in a landslide, because rather than dealing with the real issues facing New Brunswick, ( it is one of Canada’s poorest Provinces), the Con’s spent all their time pounding the “Trans Panic”.

    Saskatchewan had a Trans Panic as well, (3 Trans students and 2 Spirit People) in the Province, but Saskatchewan is “our” Alberta Wannabe.

    I guess DEI will be their next try at the ring.

  171. 171.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 10:07 pm

    @Quinerly:

    As Baud pointed out, I meant the reply for Baud and his question on how a DL was not “good enough” ID if you are any shade past off white.

  172. 172.

    Gloria DryGarden

    February 1, 2025 at 10:07 pm

    @Nelle: i read about her. She sounded like an amazing woman. I am so saddened by this.
    Chills and goosebumps, crying all over again.

    It makes sense that the witchita community is reeling from this.

  173. 173.

    Kayla Rudbek

    February 1, 2025 at 10:10 pm

    @SpaceUnit: I would tentatively add Brad DeLong to the list of trusted economists (he seemed to be sensible when I read his blog in the past)

  174. 174.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 10:12 pm

    @Jay:

    I think you meant me?

  175. 175.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    Yeah, sorry, all thumbs today.

  176. 176.

    Mai Naem mobil

    February 1, 2025 at 10:14 pm

    Can we discuss how tfg goes from looking regular to gaunt sized one day and then all swollen the next day? I don’t think you can give somebody diuretics/steroids to that level.  I thought maybe it was lighting or something but he really seems to be going from dehydrated to swollen.

  177. 177.

    Sister Golden Bear

    February 1, 2025 at 10:15 pm

    @Gloria DryGarden:

    will the black box have the information of why they suddenly rose above the 200 foot limit?

    Maybe, maybe not. I don’t know what military aircraft, in particular helicopters, have in way of black boxes. (Any AF jackals want to clarify?)

    But assuming that the helo had one, it’ll give more details about the exact flight path. My prior comments were based on flight tracking info which only showed 100-foot increments and was difficult to read when the helo/airplane tracks overlapped.

    As to why it changed altitude, we won’t know unless there’s something on the cockpit voice recorder that provides clues.

    It’s frankly really weird that the helo climbed. The charts — which the pilots would’ve reviewed beforehand — would’ve clearly shown the max 200-foot ceiling height, and they also would’ve known they were flying below a landing approach. So if they did spot 5432 at the last minute, the appropriate evasive maneuver would’ve been to dive to lower altitude. Albeit, doing that at night, over a river (i.e. a surface with fewer visual clues about your height), would’ve been a bit hairy.

  178. 178.

    John S.

    February 1, 2025 at 10:15 pm

    @TBone:

    Oh yeah, Dolchstoßlegende is one of those lovely antisemitic tropes they cooked up after WWI.

    Nazis of today still love trotting out a good ol’ stab-in-the-back story to explain their utter failure.

  179. 179.

    Darkrose

    February 1, 2025 at 10:17 pm

    @Spanky: My wife is pretty freaked out because her SSDI payment should drop later this week.

  180. 180.

    Geminid

    February 1, 2025 at 10:18 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): You seem to be in a recession-resistant sector of the economy, but it’s not recession-proof. So be careful and do your best to stay in good physical health.

    And try not to worry. Worrying never helped me, and I never saw it help anyone else either.

  181. 181.

    Glory b

    February 1, 2025 at 10:18 pm

    Here’s a long thread listing the many actions Dems at all levels, nonprofits, unions, etc, (with Dem support) are doing, for the “Do Something!” folks who are too busy grousing to notice…

    bsky.app/profile/lisamikolajczyk.bsky.social/post/3lh5c7a7pjc2i

  182. 182.

    Gloria DryGarden

    February 1, 2025 at 10:19 pm

    @Jay: thanks for clarifying.
    So we’re exporting our right wingers  to transmit methods and pov, like a disease vector into Canada. Only invited. That’s unpleasant. I wonder if a lot of Canadians aren’t disturbed by that.
    Good for New Brunswick, I’m glad they succeeded in stopping that anti trans stuff.

    I wish more people here understood that the trans thing is just a fake issue to distract us from the real problems that need to get attention and solutions.

    what does it mean when S province ( can’t spell it yet) wants to be Alberta?

    I replied to you some last night but you had, understandably, already left.

  183. 183.

    WaterGirl

    February 1, 2025 at 10:19 pm

    @Nukular Biskits: We could put up a GoFundMe and you could quit your job.  :-)

  184. 184.

    Sister Golden Bear

    February 1, 2025 at 10:21 pm

    @Gloria DryGarden:

    It sounds like a lot of glare and lights and a need to have 180+ vision, which I imagine one person can’t monitor while piloting.

    It’s difficult, which is why the co-pilot is tasked with keeping a look out. The pilot in command also is supposed to check for other aircraft, but their main focus is on flying.

    But if they were using night vision goggles,* the goggles limit peripheral vision and flatten depth perception. It’s often a factor in military helo crashes at night, especially if the helos were flying close to the terrain.

    *The Army confirmed the googles were on board, but I’ve not seen confirmation of whether they were being used.

  185. 185.

    SpaceUnit

    February 1, 2025 at 10:23 pm

    @Kayla Rudbek:

    That name rings a bell, but I can’t place it.  What is his platform?

  186. 186.

    Gloria DryGarden

    February 1, 2025 at 10:23 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear: I agree it Is really weird, and outside of the usual protocol. I wonder if someone reached, or twitched or had a spasm, and bumped the stick, or altitude adjustment button. Certainly they weren’t reaching for their coffee in such a congested area.  I hope we find out.
    you can tell i don’t know the parts of a helicopter.

  187. 187.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 10:25 pm

    @Gloria DryGarden:

    Alberta is Canada’s Texass, or Floriduh!

    The Official Alberta Prayer is “Please Dear God, give us another oil boom, we promise we won’t piss it away like the last 3 times”.

    It’s redneck central. Saskatchewan is a redneck wannabe, but they have Potash, not oil.

  188. 188.

    tobie

    February 1, 2025 at 10:26 pm

    @Glory b: im not on BlueSky so can’t read the list but I’m glad to know such a list is out there.

  189. 189.

    Stuart in Austin

    February 1, 2025 at 10:26 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear: They have mandated newspeak! We have reached 1984 forty years late.

  190. 190.

    Gloria DryGarden

    February 1, 2025 at 10:27 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear: depth perception can really F one up. I know when a car ahead of me has only one tail light, or it’s a motorcycle, it’s very hard to understand their distance from me, and I have to double my attention, when I’m driving at night.

  191. 191.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 10:27 pm

    @Geminid:

    Not to reveal too much about myself, but I guess grocery retail could be considered “recession-resistant”?

    I’ll try not to worry. But it’s hard especially when my parents are in their 60s. When they retire, they’ll rely heavily on Social Security

    I’m young and will probably be OK, but it’s not like they could easily start over again if they had to

  192. 192.

    prostratedragon

    February 1, 2025 at 10:27 pm

    @Glory b:

    Interesting story, thanks! The mention of Pittsburgh Hill District reminded me of a collection of photos I ran into once, when the internet and I were both young and fresh, of photos by the journalist Charles “Teenie” Harris. A large set of them has been digitized and is archived by the Carnegie Museum of Art. The effort has been supported in part by the National Endowment for the Humanities, for those who are tracjing what things some people think of as waste.

  193. 193.

    Gloria DryGarden

    February 1, 2025 at 10:29 pm

    @Jay: like Oklahoma, perhaps. Texas, Jr, sort of.
    thx.

  194. 194.

    Leto

    February 1, 2025 at 10:29 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear:

    (Any AF jackals want to clarify?)

    Summoned! It had one and should record the same information as the civilian counterpart, so I believe cockpit communications as well. I’m interested in why the chopper went up as well. Hopefully we get some answers when they download the data.

    Edit:

    *The Army confirmed the googles were on board, but I’ve not seen confirmation of whether they were being used.

    This information should be part of their flight plan, and the planning they did back at their squadron. If they were going to utilize their NVGs for training during the flight, it would’ve been documented.

  195. 195.

    ArchTeryx

    February 1, 2025 at 10:29 pm

    @Gloria DryGarden: Alberta is the Texas of Canada. All hat and no cattle, extraction based economy, environmental wasteland, and extremely right wing government. Saskatchewan, which is a lightly populated farming providence, wants to be Alberta.

    There is a great old Arrogant Worms / Captain Tractor song called The Last Saskatchewan Pirate that makes fun of both their right wing policies and where they eventually lead. Both hilarious and sad.

  196. 196.

    Kayla Rudbek

    February 1, 2025 at 10:30 pm

    @SpaceUnit: he’s over at substack now, he used to run his own blog https://braddelong.substack.com

  197. 197.

    Gloria DryGarden

    February 1, 2025 at 10:32 pm

    Hey y’all, I just got an email from mobilize indivisible. They are doing a training Monday on how we can fight back. I find their zooms to be full of calm clear strategizing, which gives me glimpses of hope.

    I signed up. It’s Monday 8 pm EST.  Here’s the link, if anyone is interested:

    Register for training

  198. 198.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 10:33 pm

    @frosty:

    I actually did about 14 years ago. I requested a copy/abstract of the offical one on file from my birth state’s Vital Records agency so I could get my DL.

    But probably something worth getting for sure

  199. 199.

    Sister Golden Bear

    February 1, 2025 at 10:35 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): @frosty:

    ETA: Get a passport. You’ll be required to have a legal birth certificate to get one. Costs $130.​

    It’s also well worth getting a passport wallet card as well, which is only about an extra $20. The wallet card is less useful since it’s intended for crossing the land borders of Canada and Mexico (can’t use it for other borders, nor flights to/from other countries). But since it’s wallet-sized, it’s far more convenient to carry with you everyday.

    FWIW, when I’ve travelled overseas, I left my passport in the hotel safe, and carried the wallet card with me (in a hidden wallet). Some countries technically require you to carry your passport at all times, but I figure it’s enough to satisfy the local police while I explain that my actual passport is at the hotel. Fortunately, I’ve never had to put this to the test. Also, it provides a back up in case you ever lose your passport. You’ll still need to get a new one issued to get home, but it’s really helpful for verifying your identity.

  200. 200.

    Sister Golden Bear

    February 1, 2025 at 10:36 pm

    @Stuart in Austin: Doubleplus bad.

  201. 201.

    Darkrose

    February 1, 2025 at 10:38 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear: One of my co-workers lived in Washington and went to school at the University of Vancouver. She used a passport card; never needed her actual passport when she took the ferry.

    Last year, when we went to a conference in Toronto, she pulled out her wallet card, and was politely asked for her actual passport. Fortunately she had it, but she hadn’t realized that you needed the full thing for air travel.

  202. 202.

    Darkrose

    February 1, 2025 at 10:39 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear: Doubleplusungood.

  203. 203.

    Gloria DryGarden

    February 1, 2025 at 10:39 pm

    @ArchTeryx: imagine wanting to be like that? To be Texas? Yikes. Are you in Canada? Do you know some of what we say and know about Texas, in the US?

    Simple stuff, Bible Belt. The main publisher of k-12 textbooks. Textbook content controlled to an extent, by religious right. For example trying to get creationism into biology texts!

    when we moved to Colorado I was in high school, and the first thing my new friends did was inculcate me in anti – Texas thinking. A lot of jokes were told.

    I read an article once that joked that a lot of people were coming to a conference in Colorado, more people than in a Texas high school marching band.
    Around here, that’s seen as an acceptable joke. Amusing, but silly, and we all know lovely good people from Texas. Bu5 Colorado has apparently had a bunch of big money oil guys up her buying up land and buildings and causing resentment. I’m out of the loop, so I don’t know where that stands now.

  204. 204.

    SpaceUnit

    February 1, 2025 at 10:41 pm

    @Kayla Rudbek:

    Thanks.  I’ll give him a look.

  205. 205.

    Geminid

    February 1, 2025 at 10:42 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I hope your parents will be ok. You will be so long as you stay healthy.

    It’s never a bad time to walk more, maybe buy some dumbells and do some light lifting. That will stand you in good stead whether your hours get cut back or you get a promotion.

  206. 206.

    Sister Golden Bear

    February 1, 2025 at 10:42 pm

    @Leto: It was a checkride flight for night ops to evaluate the pilot’s skills, so my assumption is they were using night-vision goggles. But I’m trying to be careful about what known vs. what’s speculation.

  207. 207.

    Nukular Biskits

    February 1, 2025 at 10:43 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    I’m not sure Ms. Biskits would go for that!

  208. 208.

    Martin

    February 1, 2025 at 10:44 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Neither drivers license or birth certificate are federal ID and therefore neither proves citizenship. Pretty clearly the feds are taking a hard line on what kind of proof of citizenship they’ll accept and it’s a passport or maybe a federal employee ID.

    All ID is a chain of trust, that originates with the birth certificate, but any entity is likely to only trust the ID they issue.

    I’ve falsified birth certificates for people before. It’s not hard. The only birth certificate the feds trust are the ones they’ve agreed are legitimate and have issued their own ID (passport) against.

  209. 209.

    mrmoshpotato

    February 1, 2025 at 10:54 pm

    @different-church-lady:

    HOLY FUCKING GOD WE’RE DEBATING WHETHER THESE NAZIS ARE AS BAD AS THE LAST NAZIS!!!! 

    Apparently so.  🤦‍♂️

  210. 210.

    Leto

    February 1, 2025 at 10:55 pm

    @Sister Golden Bear: Understood, I’m basically doing the same as you.

  211. 211.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 10:57 pm

    @Martin:

    Neither drivers license or birth certificate are federal ID and therefore neither proves citizenship. Pretty clearly the feds are taking a hard line on what kind of proof of citizenship they’ll accept and it’s a passport or maybe a federal employee ID.

    Not even Enhanced DLs? Those allow the holder to enter federal buildings/facilities, such as courthouses and airports

  212. 212.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 10:58 pm

    It’s funny how little the Trumpists know about Canada.

    At the end of WWII, the 1st Canadian Parachute Brigade and the Loyal Essex stopped a Soviet Invasion of Denmark.

    Pretty sure which side we will pick in Dolt 47 vs. Greenland.

    We were also in a border conflict with Denmark for 40 years.

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whisky_War

  213. 213.

    frosty

    February 1, 2025 at 10:58 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I saw that you had the Enhanced DL = Real ID and figured you must have gotten the legal birth certificate. No need for a passport then except for travel outside North America.

    Now returning to minding my own business. :-)

  214. 214.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 11:00 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    mostpolicyinitiative.org/science-note/citizenship-marking-on-drivers-licenses

  215. 215.

    Leto

    February 1, 2025 at 11:01 pm

    I don’t think this has been discussed tonight, but if it has apologies:

     DOGE Staff Had Questions About the ‘Resign’ Email. Their New HR Chief Dodged Them

    “I think the information that you’re going to have about this is available to you right now,” Stephanie Holmes told workers at Elon Musk’s DOGE who pressed for detail on offers of “deferred resignation.”

    On Friday, staff at what was formerly the United States Digital Service and is now part of Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative met with Stephanie Holmes, who identified herself as a part of the DOGE team and as the staff’s new HR representative.

    Throughout the meeting, which started at noon ET, dozens of USDS employees lobbed questions at Holmes related to last week’s “Fork in the Road” email offering federal workers “deferred resignations,” according to documents detailing the meeting obtained by WIRED and corroborated by sources in attendance. The questions covered issues ranging from the future of staff projects to whether the return-to-office mandates would apply to fully remote workers, as well as the exact nature of the offer the federal government was making employees.

    Holmes—who did not immediately respond to a request for comment—could fully answer only a few of the questions. She said, when asked, that the offer was “lawful,” and later said, “We believe the offer is lawful,” and could provide little additional guidance beyond that. At one point, she was asked if there would be a more formal way to accept the buyout than replying to an email with the word “resign” in the subject line. One employee expressed concerns that outside actors could send resignation emails on staffers’ behalf by spoofing their email addresses.

    “I assume that, if folks do decide to go through with the deferred resignation, there’s some kind of actual agreement that we sign,” one employee said. “Can we get a copy of that ahead of time to preview? Can we get a copy of the agreement if there is an agreement?”

    “I don’t know,” Holmes replied. “But will circle back on that.”

    She did not circle back. But yeah, as we know, it’s a shitshow, probably illegal, and it’s just like Twitter. Awesome way to run a government. Like a business.

  216. 216.

    brantl

    February 1, 2025 at 11:08 pm

    @TONYG: so, never?

  217. 217.

    ColoradoGuy

    February 1, 2025 at 11:09 pm

    @Ohio Mom: At a guess, Musk and his tech allies will set up a Chinese-style Social Credit System to give an overall political score to everyone’s Twitter and Facebook accounts. This score is then applied to Federal payments on a sliding scale, so hard-core MAGA get 400%, while Democratic activists get 25%, or less.

    Illegal as hell? Absolutely. But the Dominionist Court has already pre-approved anything they come up with.

  218. 218.

    Princess

    February 1, 2025 at 11:11 pm

    @Jay: Sure, it’s Canada’s Texas. But its previous premier was a member of the NDP (which is, for the Americans, the furthest left major party). So even it isn’t exactly Texas.

  219. 219.

    tobie

    February 1, 2025 at 11:12 pm

    @Geminid: Yes, it’s imports but it’s not a trivial amount, which is why the tariff on crude is less than that on other imports. Goods and services across the board will go up because moving goods to market will cost more.

  220. 220.

    NotMax

    February 1, 2025 at 11:13 pm

    @Leto

    The gang that couldn’t Pooty-poot straight.
    //

  221. 221.

    Gloria DryGarden

    February 1, 2025 at 11:19 pm

    @Jay: I don’t think the trumpists have any idea about current or past alliances, and how much our world today depends on the soldiers in past wars.
    in fact, I think a lot of them have never left the country, speak only one language, and don’t understand the rest of the world exists. Might not read maps, or understand much world history, either.

    Could there be a connection between not understanding that allies  depend on each other and and helped each other in the past, and the American idea of rugged individualism, and every man for himself, pulling himself up by his bootstraps?

    It seems 47 himself has very little concept of alliance, or two way respect, or diplomacy and interdependence.

  222. 222.

    Leto

    February 1, 2025 at 11:22 pm

    This is a really good article (People magazine doing better reporting on this those other asswipes):

    When an Army Major Came Out as Transgender, the Military Embraced Her. Soon, the Pentagon May Not (Exclusive)

    “THE WAY I THINK OF THIS IS, WE TRAIN FOR UNCERTAINTY,” ARMY MAJ. ALIVIA STEHLIK TELLS PEOPLE, ADDING THAT UNLESS SHE AND OTHER TRANS TROOPS ARE REMOVED FROM THE FORCE, “WE’RE GOING TO STICK AROUND AND DO OUR JOB”

  223. 223.

    Martin

    February 1, 2025 at 11:22 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): RealID licenses ar recognized by TSA, and presumably should be good for other agencies, but unless Congress says that ICE/BP must recognize them, it’ll be discretionary to the head of the agency – and the little dog killer is going to take the least charitable path possible.

  224. 224.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 11:23 pm

    @Princess: Yeah, it’s not exactly Texass, it only takes 20 years of Con mismanagement to bring in a one term NDP or Liberal Government to fix everything, which they can’t in 4 years.

    Trudeau bought them the Trans Mountain Pipeline, at a couple dozen billion dollar overpay, forced through construction against local and Indigenous rights*, screwed over BC’s Refineries, and they still hate his guts.

    *Trudeau created a special division of the RCMP, which uses illegal methods and military hardware, just to “protect” unpopular energy projects on Alberta’s behalf and the right to rape Indigenous women in remote communities, by the project workers.

  225. 225.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 11:26 pm

    @Jay:

    Thanks. Enhanced DL/REAL ID would probably be just as a good as a US passport I’m assuming, then

    @ColoradoGuy:

    And if you don’t have social media or FB/Twitter?

    @frosty:

    No problem. Thanks for the suggestion, anyway

    @Geminid:

    I appreciate that.

  226. 226.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 11:28 pm

    Dolt 45’s own USMCA, (that replaced NAFTA) is now dead as a doornail, because of Dolt 47’s tariffs.

    There will never be another one.

  227. 227.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 11:31 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    Thanks. Enhanced DL/REAL ID would probably be just as a good as a US passport I’m assuming, then

    Only in the US, and at Canadian and Mexican border crossings, with a caveat,

    In the US you will have to pass the PaperBag test first.

  228. 228.

    different-church-lady

    February 1, 2025 at 11:35 pm

    @MagdaInBlack: Oh there’s still rules. It’s just that they get made up on the spot.

  229. 229.

    different-church-lady

    February 1, 2025 at 11:36 pm

    @Miss Bianca: ​Cults are not known for their logical consistency.

  230. 230.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 1, 2025 at 11:39 pm

    @Martin:

    Do you think it’d be prudent to get a US Passport, even if one isn’t a POC?

  231. 231.

    Jay

    February 1, 2025 at 11:41 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    I would, and a Passport Card

    You are at the “papers” stage of fascism.

  232. 232.

    Another Scott

    February 1, 2025 at 11:44 pm

    Meanwhile, …

    bsky.app/profile/billcorbett.bsky.social/post/3lh5zxbg7ms2v

    Bill Corbett

    ‪@billcorbett.bsky.social‬

    Turns out the Drizz is kind of a hero

    [ acting FBI director tells DOJ henchmen to F Off and that he’s not firing January 6 agents ]

    ‪Ian Carrillo‬ ‪@iansociologo.bsky.social‬

    3d

    This is the acting FBI director, who calls himself The Drizz.

    February 1, 2025 at 10:00 PM

    Interesting, if true.

    Best wishes,
    Scott.

  233. 233.

    Soprano2

    February 1, 2025 at 11:52 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: I’m sorry, that’s terrible.

  234. 234.

    Martin

    February 2, 2025 at 12:00 am

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Yes.

  235. 235.

    Martin

    February 2, 2025 at 12:01 am

    @Jay: I wouldn’t count on Mexico and Canada agreeing to remain in this program when the Trump admin is giving them nothing in return.

  236. 236.

    Marc

    February 2, 2025 at 12:03 am

    @Sister Golden Bear:  Just to amplify something you said, one of the things that is drummed into ones head continuously during flight training is that the plane that is going to collide with you will appear to be stationary relative to the sky or ground.  I used to fly gliders from an airport north of Lake Tahoe to the mountain ranges southwest of Reno.  One day I was flying a two-seat glider with a friend (we both had 1000+ flight hours at the time) on a bright sunny day and as we were crossing south of Reno at 15K feet, Reno Departure suddenly calls us glider 25H traffic at 10 o’clock SWxxx 737, passing through twelve thousand feet, do you have him in sight?  We looked and looked and we could not see it, then we started hearing the engines and they were getting louder.  When we finally did pick it out against ground, it felt like it filled half our our field of view and was aimed directly at us.  I didn’t want to climb/dive/turn at that point as it could easily make matters worse, so I just rocked the wings (which were 65 feet long).  The pilot either saw us or his collision avoidance system went off, as he immediately leveled out, passed maybe 500 feet below, then with a huge roar started climbing again once past us.  We were both rather shaken, to say the least.

    The other thing most people don’t realize is that altimeters don’t measure altitude, they measure pressure.  So you need to set the altimeter to a specific pressure based on some reporting station.  If your setting is different than the other aircraft, then they will be seeing a different altitude for the same height (radar tracks report height relative to the tower’s current setting).  The difference can easily be a few hundred feet if the altimeters are set to two different stations.  One of the first things they’ll check is what altimeter settings the two aircraft were using, they can tell even if the altimeters have been almost completely smashed.

  237. 237.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 2, 2025 at 12:04 am

    @Martin:

    Out of curiosity, what’s your reasoning? I “pass the paper bag test” ie. am white, male, cis, etc and was born here. What would I have to worry about, realistically?

  238. 238.

    scav

    February 2, 2025 at 12:07 am

    @Gloria DryGarden: Alliances? I doubt they even have the concept of friendship along those lines.  Nor the merest inking that their holy rugged bootstrap levitation doesn’t necessarily involve kicking others to get ahead.

  239. 239.

    Martin

    February 2, 2025 at 12:07 am

    @Geminid: The US is also one of the largest exporters. The US is the largest oil refiner in the world, and Canada and Mexico don’t really have the ability to refine the garbage oil that comes out of Alberta or some of the stuff out of Mexico. But the US is great at refining shitty oil. So we tend to export the good oil we pump, import low grade oil, refine it, and sell it back to other countries.

    The US has the capacity to be energy independent despite what the GOP says – and we are if you treat refined products as fungible. The only reason we import is either regional imbalances (not wanting to pump over the rockies) or to have enough excess to export.

    But it doesn’t matter if domestic production isn’t taxed, oil and refined products are commodity markets – they’ll all get priced the same, which means domestic oil and its refined products will get more expensive – unless Trump plans to pull us out of the global oil market and wipe out the dollar as the global reserve currency. That move will get some energy CEOs to shoot Trump themselves.

  240. 240.

    Martin

    February 2, 2025 at 12:09 am

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): What makes you think they are being honest about their intentions here? Once you have this infrastructure to hold people away from accountability, they can throw anyone into it based on anything they want, including political views.

    Put another way – they’ve already held US citizens, in just the first 48 hours.

  241. 241.

    Jay

    February 2, 2025 at 12:11 am

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    ICE has deported US Citizens, ( white) in the past.

    Then, there is the vid from a couple of days ago, of unmarked cars, no license plates, pulling over a vehicle, unmarked people in tactical gear with weapons, no ICE markings, no Police, no FBI, grabbing the driver, loading them into an unmarked SUV, and driving away, with the owners car.

    It’s a great time in the US to be a kidnapper, highwayman or serial killer.

  242. 242.

    Nettoyeur

    February 2, 2025 at 12:11 am

    @Eolirin:  A 20% VAT allows big income tax cuts, which benefit rich people.

  243. 243.

    Jay

    February 2, 2025 at 12:15 am

    @Martin:

    The “light oil” that the US produces, can’t be used to make diesel or gas. It requires a percentage of “heavy oil” which the US does not produce in any quantity, so Mexican and Canadian oil is needed.

    Or Venezuelan oil.

    Apparently there is a sanctions busting deal in the works between Dolt 47 and Venezuela.

  244. 244.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    February 2, 2025 at 12:16 am

    @Martin:

    @Jay:

    In that case, what difference would holding a US Passport make if they’re even willing to hold clearly white, English speaking people with American accents? They could just seize the passport and make you disappear.

    ETA: a concealed firearm would be more useful

  245. 245.

    Kelly

    February 2, 2025 at 12:18 am

    @Gloria DryGarden: I think a lot of them have never left the country

    I think a lot of them have never left their home county, let alone the country

  246. 246.

    Jay

    February 2, 2025 at 12:19 am

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    Theoretically, an ICE asshole will take a pause and hesitate at a US Passport, for now.

    Until Dolt 47 indemnifies them from all consequences and the White Supremacy Court approves it.

  247. 247.

    Doug R

    February 2, 2025 at 12:20 am

    @NotMax: ​
     
    Bought my California rice last week and a box of California oranges yesterday.

  248. 248.

    Nettoyeur

    February 2, 2025 at 12:23 am

    @Mai Naem mobil:  Edema. Used to be called dropsy. Can be sign of: heart and circulatory problems, kidney or liver problems, drug side effects. Not good.

  249. 249.

    Nettoyeur

    February 2, 2025 at 12:25 am

    @RaflW:  If tariffs go thru, get ready for market correction trending toward recession, supply chain problems, stagflation, unemployment.

  250. 250.

    Kayla Rudbek

    February 2, 2025 at 12:25 am

    @Kelly: and their family trees are a straight line

  251. 251.

    Kelly

    February 2, 2025 at 12:26 am

    @Marc: I once saw an airliner’s landing lights hanging apparently motionless amongst the stars from my backyard. The motionless lights started about like a dim star then grew brighter and brighter for 10~20 seconds. I thought I was witnessing a supernova. I figured it out when the airliner turned toward the PDX.

  252. 252.

    Martin

    February 2, 2025 at 12:28 am

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): These things happen in degrees. If my boss comes to me and says that per US law, only passports are acceptable as proof of citizenship, I may not like it, but I’ll probably continue to do my job. If my boss comes to me and says ‘detain them even with a passport if they have a BLM sticker on their car’ I’m not going to do that. That doesn’t happen until legislation passes or until I get sufficiently scared of my own safety or I decide that’s a dandy idea and go along.

    It takes time to go from the former to the latter, and it takes longer if there is public pushback. Eventually you might wind up at the latter, but until we get there the passport will provide some protection.

  253. 253.

    Jacqueline Squid Onassis

    February 2, 2025 at 12:46 am

    They’re certainly going to try their best to erase us.  Unfortunately for them, we can’t be erased.

  254. 254.

    Jay

    February 2, 2025 at 12:53 am

    On the Retail Grocery thing being Recession proof,

    yes, and no and then,……….

    If you have food on the shelf but few can afford it, the store can do with less staff.

    ruZZian pensioners are currently visiting grocery stores as if they were museums, walking up and down the isles, displaying all the stuff they can’t afford.

    If you don’t have food on the shelf, the store needs less staff, from receiving to cashiers.

    And then in the US you have the “Shoplifter Panic”. All retailers cut staff, “shrinkage” went up a bit, and the Corps created a panic.

    No, shoplifting wasn’t up.

    Yes, fewer staff meant receiving and inventory got fu’d up, because people couldn’t do their jobs,

    And yes, putting stuff behind lock and key, when you have no staff, tends to impact sales.

    So, tariffs, Retail employees can expect to get screwed three ways from Sunday.

  255. 255.

    Martin

    February 2, 2025 at 12:57 am

    @Jay: A lot of the reported shrinkage during the shoplifter panic was employee based shrinkage. Brick and mortar retailers are struggling, they cut staff and pay, fewer staff means fewer eyes observing and you make up the pay by pocketing stuff of value. And locking it up doesn’t help when it’s the person with the key stealing it.

    This cycle has been known forever.

  256. 256.

    BlueGuitarist

    February 2, 2025 at 12:58 am

    Cheryl Rofer reposted on BlueSky, Gen. Michael Hayden

    Fellow NSA – National Security Agency veterans. Look at what’s happened at the National Cryptologic Museum. They covered up with brown paper the photos of Women in American Cryptology. All in response to President Trump’s anti-diversity executive order.

    Wtaf?

  257. 257.

    Gvg

    February 2, 2025 at 1:04 am

    @different-church-lady: no we are hoping these nazis are screwing themselves up faster and more visibly before we have to endure 10 plus years of hell then rebuild if we can.

    so worse in an incompetent way but not yet in a succeeded in killing millions of people so grotesquely that they had few imitators for longer than usual in human history. There is more brutality than it’s sane to dwell on in history.

    I can’t believe how ignorant and stupid he is, and the other ones too. Rich business men who don’t understand the most basic facts of a world economy. I want them to lose all their money. I want Musk to lose it and Trump treat him like garbage, not just Trump, then I want Trump to stand trial finally. Fair trials.

    Haven’t yet seen the leopard eating faces of the religious yet. I also want them to find out WHY the separation of church and state is about protecting religion and they are opening a door to their own injury.

  258. 258.

    NotMax

    February 2, 2025 at 1:08 am

    Looks as if the main hard drive on the computer bought the farm so I may not be around for a while.

    Y’all play nice.

  259. 259.

    Gvg

    February 2, 2025 at 1:12 am

    @Sister Golden Bear: unless someone works for the federal government, I think that is flat illegal and someone will have to lead the fight, but it can’t be allowed to stand.

    I am not sure about the government employee.

    The corrupt supremacy court is a problem. We have got to do something about them. And I do mean if they rule in ways that are clearly not constitutional, but claim it is, we are going to have to start saying they are liars and need to be removed for cause. I mean people have accepted rulings we didn’t like before but we could follow the reasoning mostly and most lawyers agreed once it was explained etc….not lately though. And trying to say the bill of rights doesn’t say what it has always said would be something we need to say “we don’t believe you”

  260. 260.

    Marc

    February 2, 2025 at 1:15 am

    The Nerd Reich: The Network State Coup is Happening Right Now

  261. 261.

    Jay

    February 2, 2025 at 1:41 am

    @Martin:

    Worked Retail, pre Covid, through covid. Ran inventory in Tech for over a decade.

    Most Retail stores don’t do A,B,C cycle counts, (A is 10% of inventory, 80% of value, B is 40% of inventory, 15% of value, C is 50% of inventory, 5% of value).

    A items should get counted once a week. B items, once a month, C items, once every 4 months. Any significant shortage should be audited.

    At the Orange, once a year, Western Inventory Services would be brought in to do a count. WIC employs part time, students basically. They couldn’t tell the difference between a table saw and a box cutter.

    So yeah, inventory was fucked,

    A classic example, was Seasonal, noticing that they had 12 skids of softwood pellets for pellet stoves, but none in seasonal. Turns out, they were in lumber, (night crew), but only found out when I went looking after work for kitty litter, after they had written it off as “shrinkage”.

    At the Orange, over 90% of “shrinkage” was screwed up receiving, misplaced items, ( every thing was supposed to have a location code), etc.

    Decades earlier, before I worked at Orange, I went into an Orange, to buy a pressure equalizing tank.

    Found one in plumbing. Not in stock.

    Took me 40 minutes to point out I had it in my hands, had a barcode and SKU, but they insisted I couldn’t buy it because they didn’t have any.

    When I started at Orange, on paper, they had no dead tools. They had 97, stored in two containers and a tarp tent. The WIC “crew” just went down the lines going, yeah, that’s a rototiller, tick,  even though it didn’t work and was at best, good for parts.

  262. 262.

    Gretchen

    February 2, 2025 at 2:04 am

    A federal employee I know says they’ve had more inquiries this week about joining the union than they have people in the union. Expects membership to quadruple by the end of the month.

  263. 263.

    Gloria DryGarden

    February 2, 2025 at 2:05 am

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): They could just seize the passport and make you disappear.

    Yes.

    Yes they can.
    There were a few countries in South America where being disappeared was a thing, in the 70s.  If they suspected a person of any dissidence or disagreement with the government.  There are novels about it, and songs. A stadium full of desaparecidos in Argentina. It also went on in Uruguay and I’m pretty sure In Chile. (Autocorrect didn’t know that’s a proper name and needs a capital letter)

    I’ve met people, I’ve heard stories of people leaving the country with 24 hours notice, stories whispered at night away from buildings, because it was still going on. I lived in Uruguay for a year around that time. It’s very real.
    All this to say, yeah, they can just pick you up and you disappear. Other countries have done it.

    I’m sure you can think of a few that do it in today’s world.

  264. 264.

    Thor Heyerdahl

    February 2, 2025 at 2:07 am

    I had a flight connecting through Newark with United to Central America. I decided to cancel the flight and take the flight credit – and fly for a bit more money but direct from Canada.

    With all the shit that’s happening with the FAA – it’s making me pay attention to flight congestion at low altitudes that I never thought about much before.

  265. 265.

    Fair Economist

    February 2, 2025 at 2:13 am

    @Jay:

    Took me 40 minutes to point out I had it in my hands, had a barcode and SKU, but they insisted I couldn’t buy it because they didn’t have any.

    Legendary.

  266. 266.

    Fair Economist

    February 2, 2025 at 2:15 am

    @Mai Naem mobil:

    Can we discuss how tfg goes from looking regular to gaunt sized one day and then all swollen the next day? I don’t think you can give somebody diuretics/steroids to that level

    Diuretics can do that.

  267. 267.

    rikyrah

    February 2, 2025 at 2:34 am

    @Sister Golden Bear:

    😢😢😢😢

  268. 268.

    Citizen Alan

    February 2, 2025 at 3:03 am

    @gene108: Christianity is in serious decline as young people turn away from it. After another 10 years of this shit, Christianity will be HATED by a non-trivial percentage of the nation. At this point, I’m willing to look any Evangelical straight in the eye and say “I assume you’re anti-choice because you want there to be a large pool of vulnerable children for your youth ministers to molest.”

  269. 269.

    Thor Heyerdahl

    February 2, 2025 at 3:05 am

    @Jay: Took me 40 minutes to point out I had it in my hands, had a barcode and SKU, but they insisted I couldn’t buy it because they didn’t have any.

    Milo Minderbinder in real life.

  270. 270.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    February 2, 2025 at 3:16 am

    I have to return to the US in April. Not by choice, but by medical necessity. And now I’m wondering if the US will hold together that long or if there’ll be chaos or war or something else that’ll keep me away and force me to accept the alternative (which in my case is death).

  271. 271.

    TBone

    February 2, 2025 at 4:16 am

    @Bruce K in ATH-GR: you have my sincere best hopes for a successful return and treatment.  We’ll be here, trying to keep the lights on.

  272. 272.

    mark

    February 2, 2025 at 4:18 am

    In western Washington 100% of our natural gas is supplied by Canada.

  273. 273.

    TBone

    February 2, 2025 at 4:20 am

    @Gloria DryGarden: when we did it not long ago, it was called “extraordinary renditioning” under George W. Bush.  To “black sites” (“secret” prisons in other countries).

    Some mighty fancy words to describe illegal kidnapping.

    en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_rendition

    I remember a bunch of “new words” from that time.  Detainee is one.

  274. 274.

    sab

    February 2, 2025 at 4:58 am

    OT Shy little Echo was bugging me on yet another morning (is 3:30 next morning or late night before) . I have finally (eight months into our relationship) realized that she doesn’t want hugs or petting. She wants treats in her usual spot where the other cats won’t notice her chowing down.

    She got what she wanted so the house is quiet and I can go back to sleep

    ETA She likes hugs and petting in general. At 3 am she wants treats.

  275. 275.

    MagdaInBlack

    February 2, 2025 at 5:02 am

    @sab: That is my Gordita: after yowling as only a Siamese can yowl, she is currently standing under the coffee table having her treats and will then retire back this weeks box of choice.

    And I’m having wake’n’bake.

  276. 276.

    sab

    February 2, 2025 at 5:08 am

    @mark: That is yikes territory.

    I hope Dana Houle is right and these guys will fail because they hurt everyone but Muskrats, but I agree with Kay. Where the fuck are the Republicans?  “Law and order, family values, conservative …whatever.”  They pretended they had values, but they actually are just hogs at the public and private ( Think Tank) troughs.

  277. 277.

    MagdaInBlack

    February 2, 2025 at 5:09 am

    @MagdaInBlack:  and some Johnny Rivers

    youtube.com/watch?v=Xa9vWVEYojg

  278. 278.

    TBone

    February 2, 2025 at 5:09 am

    Today’s letter by Heather Cox Richardson is one for the books.  She is so good at what she does. Don’t read it if you’re feeling nervous today.

    Snippet:

    This afternoon, Wyden posted that he has been told that Bessent has given the Department of Government Efficiency full access to the system. “Social Security and Medicare benefits, grants, payments to government contractors, including those that compete directly with Musk’s own companies. All of it.”

    heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/february-1-2025

    I have my Big Girl pants on today.  And my anti-gravity chinstrap.

    I’m gonna need ’em.

  279. 279.

    sab

    February 2, 2025 at 5:13 am

    @MagdaInBlack: Our Shadow is gorgeous and grey with dark green eyes, but when she opens her mouth we hear her siamese ancestry.

    My late much lamented StarScream (a tuxedo) got his name from his siamese genes. He was a big tuxedo, but his green eyes were a bit crossed, and he sure could yowl. Especially in the middle of the night.

  280. 280.

    Gretchen

    February 2, 2025 at 5:14 am

    @sab: My view as a former night shift worker is that, if I haven’t been to sleep yet, it’s still Saturday. Only when I’ve gone to sleep and awakened again is it Sunday. This is in conflict with my husband, who falls asleep at 8 pm and wakes up at 4am, thinking it’s now tomorrow, Sunday. I’m still awake, thinking it’s still yesterday, Saturday. We each are sure that we are correct.

  281. 281.

    TBone

    February 2, 2025 at 5:17 am

    Mood music this morning with Jimi Hendrix.  Hard to choose a fave, but this is one of them!

    m.youtube.com/watch?v=hHFFy-JdTWo

    Also too

    m.youtube.com/watch?v=-E2A60WslXg

  282. 282.

    sab

    February 2, 2025 at 5:27 am

    @TBone: Hendrix died in his 30s 50+ years ago and we are still listening to him. My stepkids in their late thirties still listen. He died before their parents had even met.

  283. 283.

    sab

    February 2, 2025 at 5:33 am

    New thread up with gorgeous photos from DanB garden.

  284. 284.

    Shalimar

    February 2, 2025 at 5:36 am

    @Jay: If they don’t have any, that means you must have brought that one in yourself for a refund.  Just tell them you changed your mind and ask if you can take it.

  285. 285.

    frosty

    February 2, 2025 at 5:56 am

    @BlueGuitarist: I should have gone to see this museum before now. I’ve read a lot of the histories and memoirs of the women code breakers in WWII. We couldn’t have done it without them. This move is sickening.

  286. 286.

    TBone

    February 2, 2025 at 6:34 am

    @sab: he is a most amazing musician, I used to have posters of him all over my bedroom!

  287. 287.

    TBone

    February 2, 2025 at 6:39 am

    So … even with puppy pee pads underneath, both cats managed to “miss” the new low step litterbox I have in my bathroom for Noah’s convenience, soak the rug, get litter clumped to the side of the tub & where it meets the hardwood floor AND my fucking toilet in that room is now suddenly leaking rusty water through rusted out tank bolts.  I need to know WHO thought it was a good idea to put NEW hardwood floors IN A BATHROOM!  Puppy pee pads now surrounding MY toilet too hahahahaha!!!

    THANK YOU SAB for helping me avert yet another disaster in the making!

    I have now taped pee pads in place to protect EVERYTHING until I can get a plumber AND A HOT BATH in my jet tub, mama needs one soooo badly.

  288. 288.

    Barry

    February 2, 2025 at 7:19 am

    @lowtechcyclist: IMHO, those analysts were internally muzzled, if for no other reason than the risk models would be blowing up.

  289. 289.

    Lacuna Synecdoche

    February 2, 2025 at 7:21 am

    @Eolirin: ​

    You know it occurs to me that the tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are so far reaching and so difficult to increase domestic production on that they basically constitute a sudden shift to European style VAT as a way to raise revenue.

    I’ve been thinking the same thing for a while now, that tariff increases this broad are going to constitute a back-door VAT.

    In Europe, though, they get away with it because VAT’s are largely used to fund social safety-net spending. Republicans, instead, are planning to use their back-door VAT to fund tax cuts for the wealthy. Like you, I don’t think that’s going to play well with US consumers.

  290. 290.

    Quinerly

    February 2, 2025 at 8:42 am

    @Marc:

    Thanks for posting this piece.

  291. 291.

    TONYG

    February 2, 2025 at 9:23 am

    My adult sons do not work in finance (although they know people their age who do).  My younger son (the more outspoken of the two) has long been of the opinion that “Wall Street” “finance wizards” are usually dumb guys with inherited wealth, who see no downside to pissing away other people’s money.  That boy might be right.

  292. 292.

    TONYG

    February 2, 2025 at 9:26 am

    @Lacuna Synecdoche: That’s right.  The tariffs are effectively massive sales taxes (that will fund income tax cuts).  Tax the poor and the (shrinking) middle class more, and tax the rich less.  A feature not a bug.

  293. 293.

    WaterGirl

    February 2, 2025 at 10:50 am

    @Bruce K in ATH-GR: So scary, I’m sorry you have to worry about this.

  294. 294.

    JustRuss

    February 2, 2025 at 11:34 am

    @Starfish (she/her): Meanwhile, my Democratic senator is barnstorming the state, 3 town halls yesterday and 2 more today. Thank you Jeff Merkley.

  295. 295.

    Shana

    February 2, 2025 at 11:36 am

    @EmbraceYourInnerCrone: If you can deal with subtitles I recommend korean dramas. There are hundreds on Netflix and come in a variety of genres: romance, history, mystery, zombie, etc. they’re generally a 16 episode season of 1 hour episodes. Grand fun and a good distraction

  296. 296.

    Kayla Rudbek

    February 2, 2025 at 1:27 pm

    @TONYG: in undergrad, we would joke about engineering being the pre-business major

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