Robert Reich has a pretty interesting article up today.
He included a poll, which I just took at around 9:30 this morning.
Results from that moment in time:
Guessing that Dems coming back is bolded because that’s the one I chose.
Okay, now let’s get to the meat of the article.
Which one would you choose?
[I confess that as I was scrolling, I first caught the word “unabated” as “masturbate”, I think because at that moment i was thinking about the media and how they are going to be dealing with today, and that’s what I think much of the media has become.]1. A new generation of American leaders is capturing the hearts and spirit of the nation. The best example is the election of Zohran Mamdani. The young, African-born, Muslim, avowed Social Democrat generated more enthusiasm than America has seen for any politician in many years, and he ignited a vast army of young volunteers. The future of the Democratic Party is with unapologetic progressives like Zohran who inspire the young and fight for average working people.
2. The Democratic Party is coming back. Anti-Trump sentiment won the day, with near-record Democratic turnouts. All the winners — including California’s Gavin Newsom — presented a positive vision of the future sharply at odds with Trump’s dark, vindictive one. They all spoke of a government that works on behalf of all the people, not just the well-off. This bodes well for the Democrats in next year’s congressional midterm elections, if they can keep up the momentum.
3. The Democratic Party did well because it moved to the center. The biggest lesson of today’s races is that the future of the Democratic Party lies in pragmatism and moderation. Abigail Spanberger won in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey because voters want leaders who can solve problems, not mount slogans or declare class warfare. We also saw this in Andrew Cuomo’s stronger-than-expected performance in New York, and in Gavin Newsom’s pragmatic approach to redistricting in California.
4. Trump’s spell over the nation continues unabated. You’d think that with the economy in trouble, the government shuttered, tens of millions of American now lacking nutrition assistance, and millions more about to lose affordable health care, Trump’s influence would be in free fall. But America has become more conservative, even in traditionally liberal and progressive precincts such as New York, New Jersey, and California; Virginia is also moving back toward its conservative roots.
Anyway, I have two questions for you guys.
But first, an assumption on my part. I think Dems are going to do well today. For this conversation, let’s a assume that Dems do well.
ONE. Which of those four do you agree with?
TWO. Which of those four do you think the media is likely to roll with?
Omnes Omnibus
I am an optimist, but I am not going to count chickens today.
Jackie
@Omnes Omnibus:
That damn bird flu!
Scout211
I predict that the mainstream media will promote “Democrats are divided” as their main theme (“Other” in the list) no matter what the outcome.
But the non-mainstream media will be more positive toward the Democrats, with various versions of “The Democratic Party is coming back.” Or more likely, “Voters express frustration with Trump/GOP.”
Fair Economist
Personally I’d say #1, but the media will go with #3. If it’s a blowout win for us, maybe #2; if the Republicans (now including Cuomo) win any of the top tier races, it’ll be #4.
artem1s
bomb threats in NJ – temporary poll closings
abcnews.go.com/US/credible-bomb-threats-temporarily-halt-voting-northern-new/story?id=127168655
Straphanger
For me it’s a tossup between “Zohan is the future” and “Dems come back.”
I fully expect the media to loudly crow that while Trump had a less than ideal day, it’s really moderates that carried the day.
p.a.
@artem1s: reposting from moribund thread: I’m sure the FBI will be all-in on investigating this.🙄
goodmatt
Media will roll with 1 as a ‘Dems are Kommiezzz’ story line.
glc
Duncan Black comments as well.
My rule would be, pick the stupidest one, and that’s what they’ll go with. And they wrote the story yesterday, so it’s all ready to go out, with a couple of details inserted. Like an obituary.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
1 or 3. They can’t be positive about the Dems. It goes against their nature. I’ve come to the conclusion that the older media personalities are libertarian/GOP-lite and the young ones are progressives . This is why we can’t catch a break.
WaterGirl
@p.a.: unless the fibbies called in the bomb threat themselves.
feels like these days, all the calls are coming from inside the house!
WaterGirl
@glc: boy, Isn’t that the truth!!!
Matt McIrvin
They will report #1 as a negative story about how Mamdani means Democrats are wild Communists who are out of touch with the crusty diner people.
In truth, Democratic candidates have to play to the population where they are, and the party can only survive as a big tent.
Jackie
I think it’s a combo of #2 and #3.
Personally I think Mamdani is the exception. Had he run anywhere else than NYC, I don’t think he’d gotten as far – the candidates he was running against no doubt helped catapult him to the forefront. His youth and positive energy is a HUGE contrast to the corrupted Adams and Cuomo.
arrieve
Zohran’s latest ad, dropped today. (I could do without the cameo from Bernie, but maybe that’s just me.)
Such a gifted politician.
UncleEbeneezer
Mamdami will not be the future of the Dem Party. His schtick plays well for campaigning in NYC but actually governing is a much different beast. Getting his progressive policies enacted won’t be easy and they may not solve the problems as easy as his fans believe. He will also have to actually answer for crimes and hate speech using variations of his own Anti-Zionist language. And there is already a serious risk of a significant chunk of our Jewish coalition members tapping out if we continue to take them for granted and let others obsessively bash Israel/Zionism. I’m seeing lifelong Dems who are Jewish speculate about not voting if the trends continue. It’s a real problem that Mamdami is contributing to, even though nobody here seems to take it seriously. Republicans are already salivating over using him to be the face of the Dem Party which tells me that if he is the future of our party, we are in big trouble. That said, I remember the excitement over Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinic, The Squad etc., being the new face of the Dem Party, so we’ll see once the campaign honeymoon is over if Mamdani has any more staying power.
EarthWindFire
The media will go with 3, always and forever. Democrats never win because people like liberalism, or actually like a Democrat. It’s always that Democrats somehow move to the center. And if Democrats fail to meet expectations tonight, it’s because they didn’t do 3.
Never mind that our media couldn’t find the center of their own behinds with a flashlight and a map, let alone our political “center.” Wherever that is.
tam1MI
I will go with #1, because that is the most easy to Both Sides.
Jackie
@WaterGirl: My money’s on Bannon – or one or more of his cohorts.
Splitting Image
@Scout211:
Mamdani will win big in New York. Spanberger will win big in Virginia. That would be a 50/50 split between progressive wins and moderate wins. Proof that the Democratic Party is divided against itself. Tomorrow’s New York Times, probably.
tam1MI
@UncleEbeneezer: Mamdami will not be the future of the Dem Party. His schtick plays well for campaigning in NYC but actually governing is a much different beast. Getting his progressive policies enacted won’t be easy and they may not solve the problems as easy as his fans believe.
Odds are he will be the 2nd coming of David Dinkins.
Miss Bianca
@Splitting Image: “Today’s Electoral Victories Show That It Takes All Kinds of Democratic Candidates to Win. Here’s Why That’s Bad News for Democrats.”
Belafon
@artem1s: I think people need to assume that they’re all hoaxes at polling stations.
Another Scott
@Miss Bianca: +1
“It was election day in many places in the USA. But our top story is here’s what Trump said about his plans for replacing Arlington National Cemetery with a MAGA theme park…”
(sigh)
Forward!!
Best wishes,
Scott.
Omnes Omnibus
Mamdani is charismatic. He obviously likes people and enjoys being with them, almost in an old school Kennedy/Biden way. He has a sense of humor. He understands modern communication techniques. These are the ways that he is the future of the party. We should run people who share as many of the characteristics as possible. The policies? Those will need to be more localized.
FelonyGovt
Definitely hoping for #2, although I don’t really trust mass media to say anything positive about Democrats. I’m not a Mamdani groupie, I have some misgivings about him and I think he’s benefiting from seriously unappealing and unsavory opponents. Otherwise, I’m hoping results nationwide today reflect the No Kings energy.
kindness
I don’t really like the wording of several of that polls possible answers. Such is life. While there is a general national feeling that Trump sucks, Democrats winning in Virginia will be different than New Jersey and different from Mandami. Those 3 things aren’t the same.
EarthWindFire
On the which one do you agree with question, none of them.
IMO, DJT and the GOP won 2024 by a narrow margin of voters who were traumatized by COVID and inflation and wanted 2019 back. Suckers.
These elections will be won by who shows up and it appears that the Dems will. But the Democratic Party isn’t “coming back,” it never left. Its visions haven’t changed. The environment has and we’re acting accordingly. Mamdami is a great politician, for NYC, like Spanberger is a great politician for VA. Neither of them are some “tilt” or a sea change in the party.
I agree that these are the media’s likely paths but they’re all ridiculous for different reasons.
Kent
Disagree.
I think he would have been highly successful as a mayoral candidate in pretty much any of the top 20 cities in the country. For example, Seattle’s current challenger for Mayor, Katie Wilson, is frankly to the left of Mamdani on some issues. But she is a white woman so it is unremarkable. Mamdani is also to the right of most of the recent mayoral candidates in San Francisco.
Of course he wouldn’t be too successful tromping around Montana talking about grouse hunting and the price of wheat like a Jon Tester. But then Jon Tester isn’t going to win any big city municipal election either.
suzanne
Number four makes me want to vomit. Number three makes me depressed. So I guess I come down to some combination of numbers one and two.
I genuinely think that the progressive side of our party brings a lot of needed energy, and they bring us many more voters than they lose. They can’t win everywhere, but so what? Centrists can’t win everywhere, either.
Paul in KY
@UncleEbeneezer: Love to see him try, though.
PatD
I think Dems should refuse to let the media run with their preferred narratives and push their version of #2 as it’s best for the party and the public. Dems wins will highlight that there is an active resistance and that Trump is weak and unpopular. Dems have a big tent and that should be celebrated.
Resist toxicity and division as that’s what the media and some people see as their priority. You’ll know it by what they focus on and what makes them angry.
Josie
@Omnes Omnibus:
Exactly. Charismatic people with policies that fit the area. Of course, this is a little too complicated for our news people. They will choose whatever looks worse for Democrats. We just have to figure out how to overcome that.
p.a.
The reactionary NY police & fire unions, and the Big Money Boyz, will do to Mamdani what they do to anyone who tries to move the needle a bit towards making the city livable for the un-rich, the un-connected. Probably with help where possible from Albany.
Lots of chokepoints:
New York City’s government has
I wish him well.
WaterGirl
@arrieve: yeah, Bernie at the beginning almost really turned me, and I nearly stopped watching, but it was a good ad once we got past Bernie. It’s actually a great ad.
arrieve
@UncleEbeneezer:
I’m a big fan of Mamdani–imagine having a joyful politician!–but I don’t think he is the future of the Democratic party. I don’t believe that there’s any such thing. I think he is “a” future. We have to find and support every one of those futures that we can, and accept that what works in one state or one race may not work anywhere else.
Is he going to be a good mayor? I don’t know. NYC is pretty ungovernable and the NYPD, among others, will have the shivs out for him the moment he is elected. But he has a lot of very smart, experienced people like Brad Lander behind him, and he actually likes New Yorkers.
artem1s
@UncleEbeneezer: Kucinich was a terrible legislator – both as Mayor of Cleveland and US Rep. He’s a prime example of what happens to a Dem who tried to move to the populist center to appease ‘economically anxious’ white voters. No one trusts him anymore and he’s generally thought of as a pest. He’s pretty much thrown everyone who ever supported him under the bus. But he still manages to show up anytime there is a chance to get in some fundraising grift.
Whether Mandami is the real thing remains to be seen. First he needs to win the election. It’s going to be hard to be the mayor of all of NYC and still hold on to those voters who think he’s going to solve all their problems on day one. And if he goes all “Hymie town” the way Jesse Jackson did, he’s not gonna last a full term.
suzanne
@arrieve:
Reposted for EMPHASIS!!! Sing it.
We need to broaden our coalition if we want to win things. There’s zero strategic value in narrowing appeal.
p.a.
I’m totes not voting for a mayor because of his position on relations with Israel.🙄
Matt McIrvin
I just voted in a mayoral election myself, but it was a rather less dramatic or politically nationalized one.
Belafon
@PatD:
Yep, they can just get on the network that regularly hosts Democrats and tell the country about what the election victories mean.
//
wonkie
What pisses me off about this “analysis” that there’s no real difference between the policies of any of the politicians mentioned. They are all practical problem solvers. Also the journalists simply can not determine the difference between style and substance. Mamdani is a great campaigner and I would vote for him in a heartbeat but the revolution is on the other coast where Dems (hopefully) are deciding to fight back against gerrymandering by redistricting their own state even tho it means changing their state laws. THAT’s firing a big shot.
If Mamdani was a short, fat white Protestant guy who mumbled, he could say exactly the same things and not be seen as radical. If either governor candidate was Muslim they’d be seen as radical. Newsom, despite the imaginative trolling, the direct and forceful speaking style, and the leadership is old guard.
In other words, MSM criteria for deciding who is moderate, leftist etc has to do with MSM perceptions of who is respectable as per their internal decision-making and they lack the self-awareness to understand themselves–or politics.
Geminid
@UncleEbeneezer: The question, “Who is the new face of the Democratic Party?” will certainly be a hot topic among the pundits tonight. It appears the three prospects will be Zohran Mamdani, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger.
I can tell Ken Klippenstein and Mehdi Hasan are worried Spanberger might steal some of the spotlight from their guy, because they were already trying to dirty her up yesterday.
piratedan
while my expectations for Mr. Mamdani are not high, if he shows that he’s willingly taking on entrenched entities in attempting to resolve housing issues, I think he’ll be alright. I pragmatically believe that New Yorkers simply want to see someone fight for them and their collective interests. Success in those fights is dependent on how much pressure he and the city as a collective can bring on those institutions to bring change. It appears that he has ability to reach his contituents in language that they understand, will that coalition force change upon those entities that do not want to do so (NYPD, NYFD, The Rich, etc), that remains to be seen obviously. I hope he can help fix things for those who are crushed by the current system.
Gretchen
The press depicts Zohran as crazy, pie in the sky overpromiser. Like free daycare sounds impossible to a Midwesterner who’s paying $2000 a month for their 3 year old. But then you find out that New York already has free pre-k for all kids 3 and up for 6 hours a day, and offers extended day care on top of that for a very affordable price. So then it doesn’t sound crazy-unreasonable to say maybe we could move that down to 2 year olds.
Same with free busses. They already had a successful pilot program with a free bus line in every borough. Saying we could do 2 or 3 in each borough isn’t a stretch.
And NY has had rent control/rent stabilization since World War II.
All are practical things that would help the average working person with real problems that already have some precedent there.
But then press finds it much more clickbaitly to portray him as a crazy Communist who’s going to crash the economy, drive out the rich people, and impose Sharia law.
Another Scott
@p.a.: 👍
I’m reminded of Speaker Johnson’s regular pontificating these days on the Senate filibuster.
Not your job, mate. Not your job. Stay in your lane and do your job.
Sure, we all have opinions on stuff. But opinions aren’t policies ,and job descriptions are real things and not just whatever mouth noises we make on a particular day.
Thanks.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Jackie
OT We are getting more confirmation that FAUX News is running the White House – both within and outside.
Oh, and Laura Loomer has been given press credentials to the Pentagon.
Miss Bianca
@Gretchen: Yeah, honestly, at this point, I’m finding the Mamdani panic even more wearisome than the Mamdani boosterism.
Actually, *way* more wearisome.
p.a.
Open thread so here’s a quick 6min video on new guidelines from our brilliant HHS leader. This Dr. is usually straightforward but a bit of snark in this one.
youtu.be/DzOKkN1D1N0?si=3-ZuFqiFwLCrGPdj
Gretchen
I’m reminded of when Elizabeth Warren destroyed Michael Bloomberg asking why he’d run when he doesn’t want to do anything and doesn’t think anything can be done. Mamdani understands that you start negotiations with what you want to accomplish, and leave plenty of room to bargain down for a middle ground that would still really help. Free daycare for 2 and up isn’t as good as for all kids, but it’s a step forward that would really help families.
suzanne
@Gretchen:
Don’t forget that he’s a scary Muslim!
Matt McIrvin
@Gretchen: My city (and its entire regional transportation district) has had free buses for a few years now. I always think it’s funny when people discuss them as a crazy hypothetical.
While obviously the system has to be tax-supported, it always was in the first place; its farebox recovery rate before the change was very low, probably because of low ridership, and about a quarter of the revenue went to the costs of fare collection itself. Eliminating fares has brought ridership way up and inspired increases in frequency. It also makes the buses faster, because of all of the delays in boarding associated with fare collection, and eliminates things like drivers having to make the call about whether to be hardassed about fare evasion when people can’t afford to ride.
trollhattan
I expect Prop 50 will pass easily. Only then will most folks discover it does nothing at all for a full year. Then, CA will be aflutter about the governor’s race. The last four have been more or less predictable while this one is wide open.
By Friday America will return to not caring who’s mayor of New York.
Statewide ballots can help, at least some of them.
Sister Golden Bear
To channel my inner NYT Pitchbot: “Mamdani and Prop 50 win by landslides. Here’s why it’s bad news for Democrats.”
WaterGirl
We could always channel what we want the media to say. Who knows, it might spread.
Geminid
@UncleEbeneezer: I ran across a Jerusalem Post article I thought you might be interested in. It’s about a comment Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales posted on a comments section below that platform’s article on “Gaza Genocide.”
The title is:
This link might work:
share.google/ntzaLLggt1N6XApVa
p.a.
@WaterGirl: Think B-Juice would have to jump up into the top 5,000 liberal blogs for that kind of influence!
Aspiration!
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@EarthWindFire:
There are a shitload of Dems who believe and preach that on a daily basis, it’s not just their media enablers like Klein/MattY/Atlantic/Vox/Pod Bro and a unholy host of others.
Peale
@Sister Golden Bear: One thing is 100% certain. No matter what happens today, we won’t be allowed to think that its a good thing and will be scolded for being happy for more than 10 minutes.
The Democrats really have become a puritanical cult. “What’s that feeling I have? Is that what they call “elation?” That’s the devil’s handiwork, I tell thee. That’s the pathway to “mirth” so let’s nip that in the bud.”
Mike E
@Omnes Omnibus: yep, the cranky old naysayers here ignore his grassroots army (literally 10s of 1,000s of peeps) which threatens the whole top down big money consultant approach that’s ushered in this authoritarian era, something to bitch about but then throw up your hands and say “gee, this isn’t how it’s supposed to work!” Mamdani has significant headwinds in NYC where fiefdoms rule, but having actual people working for a better city sounds like the way to go.
Captain C
@Sister Golden Bear:
November 8, 2028 FTFNYT: “Dems win Electoral College 499-39, 62-37 margin in popular vote. Sweep Senate and House races, dominate governor’s and state house races. Here’s why that’s bad news for Democrats and a mandate for Donald Trump”
Chief Oshkosh
2. The Democratic Party is coming back.
3. The Democratic Party did well because it moved to the center.
And now I’m off to really cast a vote.
suzanne
@Captain C:
It’ll be good news for John McCain’s corpse!
tobie
@Jackie: Had Mandami faced a credible challenger in the NYC primary, he might not have won. I would vote for him, though I’m troubled by some of his past statements and his deflections when asked about them. I’d like to think we’re a party that can recognize why some statements can be hurtful to constituents but in an age of anger & grievance that’s interpreted as weakness.
Old School
Chief Oshkosh
@arrieve: Interesting choice of background music.
laura
Personally, I choose #2, and the press will select #3, because they have and will continue to do so. I wish Mamdani well today, but he is not a Democrat, he’s just running as the Democratic because he’s a Berner, a DSA and he is not a reliable individual as evidenced by his uncommitted stance. I hope that the party writ large will finally address the problem of internal disrupters infiltrating the party to the benefit of Republicans. They ain’t our friends and I continue to believe that they are a Russian psy-op. My opinion is not popular, but I’m not falling for the banana in the tail pipe, I’m just a proud Democrat
Re California Governor’s race, there’s several qualified Democrats- including Katie Porter and Xavier Bercerra. I prefer a work horse over a show pony, so Bercerra’s my preferred candidate.
lou
A Facebook friend of mine posted about Cuomo’s low energy campaign. She said she hasn’t received one door knock, no flyers, and has seen no campaigners out on the sidewalks. The only thing is the big expensive ads paid for by billionaires. In other words, what passes for a typical Democratic campaign in too many states, big on high paid consultants, low on boots on the ground. Or maybe because she’s Jewish, they think they don’t have to woo her vote. (A big assumption since she’s about as lefty as you get)
Leto
@Omnes Omnibus: I wore the same shirt that I wore on Election Day last Nov. I thought about that as I was putting it on. Not superstitious but it made me think.
WaterGirl
@p.a.: Can’t hurt to try!
Melancholy Jaques
@Scout211:
That is the almost certain take they will have on Mamdani’s election.
Jackie
FFOTUS just reneged on SNAP payments.
He’s an ugly, ugly person.
suzanne
@laura: Mamdani is a registered Democrat.
p.a.
@lou: A long-ago point: one factor in the Republican’s eternal war on unions (even the non-cop unions stupid enough to support them) is to deprive the Democratic Party of the $$$, Big $$$ back in the day, that flowed to the Party. Well, a political party needs $$$, so, was it BabyFace Nelson on why he robbed banks? “That’s where the money is.” The Dems went where the money is.
ETA: another good reason to support ActBlue.
NotMax
This word Wisdom that you use….
;)
tobie
@lou: Hmm…I’ve been pretty involved in the judicial retention elections in PA, even at the county level, and they’ve been very grassroots based….like just about every election I’ve been involved in with Dem volunteers since 2004.
PatD
@laura: I think your comments on Mandan’s are wrong and self-defeating. He’s clearly a Democrat and you should want all of the million or so people who will vote for him today in the big tent of the Democratic Party because that is how we win elections.
Bernie Sanders is absolutely irrelevant going forwards and I will be happy once he stops being mentioned. He should retire.
Percysowner
@Sister Golden Bear:
That’s pretty much what I’m expecting. Mandani wins, how can he possibly fulfill his pie in the sky promises? Prop 50 won, will this sudden attempt to rig the House of Representatives turn the public against the Democrats. Basically, there wasn’t a LOT of media outrage when the Republicans started this, but once the Democrats decided to fight back it became a big fucking change to the system and BAD!
arrieve
@tobie:
He did though–Brad Lander and Adrienne Adams, to name two. (The city Comptroller and and the Speaker of the City Council.) Both would have been excellent choices. I was surprised when Mamdani won the primary, though relieved he knocked out the odious Cuomo. Or so I thought….
xephyr
I wish they’d stop referring to them as “Conservatives”. They stopped being Conservatives at least a decade ago. Just a pet peeve…
Kent
@tobie: Mamdani had plenty of credible challengers. For example Brad Lander.
Captain C
@Old School: That the FTFNYT is full of shit? We’ve known that for a long time (though perhaps not enough Dems have twigged to it).
NotMax
@p.a.
That was Willie Sutton. Although he admitted it encapsulated his M.O. he denied having said it.
Melancholy Jaques
@wonkie:
At the meeting of the Southwest Riverside County Democrats last night, it was quiet, cautious optimism. Because we are mail voting state, we won’t know for a week or so, won’t be official till Thanksgiving. (OMG! it’s almost Thanksgiving!)
Sister Golden Bear
@Sister Golden Bear: Told ya…
As Mamdani nears victory, Democrats worry about national fallout
Betty Cracker
@laura: Mamdani is a registered Democrat. AFAIK, he has run every race for political office as a Democratic Party candidate. Arguably, the effort to “other” him (and every Dem also affiliated with DSA and every Dem who likes Bernie, etc.) is harmful to a party that needs every damn vote it can get, so I don’t understand the impulse.
tobie
@arrieve: I was thinking of someone more high profile like Dan Goldman. Adrienne Adams did not campaign well at all and Lander got no traction.
suzanne
@Betty Cracker:
Thank you.
There are times it feels like this:
DEMS: “We need young people to vote for us!”
DEMS: ***nominate young person who seems to excite other young people***
DEMS: “Not like that!”
Josie
Folks – We should at least learn to spell the man’s name. It’s MAMDANI. Think to yourself: M comes before N in the alphabet.
ETA: Additionally, I agree completely with Betty Cracker.
Geminid
@Gretchen: There has been pressure on Curtis Sliwa to drop out, the idea being this would help Cuomo win.. I never thought it could, because Sliwa can’t stand Andrew Cuomo and many of his supporters feel likewise.
Anyway, Casey Hunt of CNN asked Sliwa yesterday:
This was a ridiculous question and Sliwa knew it. Zohran Mamdani could not run New York City as a “communist” even if he tried, which he won’t.
I liked Sliwa’s answer:
I’ve followed Curtis Sliwa through this contest, and I believe he’ll be one of the winners even if he comes in third. Sliwa has had a great time just speaking his mind, being himself.
Andrew Cuomo, on the other hand, has been the most miserable of politicians, and painful.to watch. I think that while Zohran Mamdani deserves to win this election, Andrew Cuomo *really* deserves to lose it.
suzanne
@Geminid: Curtis Sliwa brought me some LULZ;
Mike E
@Betty Cracker: oh yeah SC’s whole Capt Ahab routine, willing to scuttle the boat to harpoon her MoBernie Dick… I’m not a DSA or even remotely enamored by Sanders but this grievance-based approach seems like the total opposite of outreach (“But they insulted me first so stab-stab-stab!!”) I get the anger but at some point we get serious and keep our eyes on the prize.
Melancholy Jaques
@suzanne:
Pretty much what happened with Howard Dean and what they tried with AOC.
Geminid
@PatD: Zohran Mamdani may well bring in tens of thousands of new voters, but most of the million or so people who will vote for Mamdani today are already in the Democratic big tent.
suzanne
@Geminid: Then that’s great. He keeps most of the existing Dem coalition together and also adds to it. We should be so lucky in every race.
scav
@suzanne: Yeah, the whole “We’re a big tent!” self-congratulatory tone coupled with the knee-jerk “Not a real Democrat!” othering of anyone with different tastes and theories of governance gets tedious.
Geminid
@suzanne: I cracked up when I saw Sliwa describe Andrew Cuomo’s record:
Peale
@Geminid:
Yep. Look, I would never have voted for him in the Primary and I probably wouldn’t have voted for Mamandi as my first choice. But as a Democrat, I don’t think Cuomo has remotely made his case that he needed to stay on the ballot. He’s the “Why are you still here?” candidate. He’s not a politician who I associate with New York City. His entire reason for running in the primary has gone over my head. Its like he’s slumming.
I’m a Democrat. I will vote for every Democrat on the ballot every single time after the primary. That’s what you’re supposed to do if you are in a party. Heck, if Adams had stayed in and won the primary, I’d probably still vote for him.
I think Cuomo is just being rude. He had $8 million dollars in the primary and apparently $16M more pledged in PAC money. Just go home already. I’d feel the same way if Mamandi had lost the primary but decided to stay in the race.
Captain C
@Peale:
“I hate all of you and your disgusting city. I enjoyed the experience of screwing you as governor. Vote for experience! Vote for the asshole you know! Vote for me!” — Andrew Cuomo, probably
WaterGirl
@Jackie: An ugly, ugly person who does not give a shit about the rule of law.
Let’s hope that his middle finger to the courts will have a positive effect as the Supreme Court decides whether to make him infallible or not later this week.
WaterGirl
@Percysowner: Snatching defeat out of possible victory!
WaterGirl
@Sister Golden Bear: Just because the media says it, that doesn’t make it so.
PatD
@Geminid: True, I agree and think that’s an affirmation of what the majority of the Dem voting base (at least in NYC) thinks of Mamdani. One of them.
RevRick
@Omnes Omnibus: Mamdani is a sui generis candidate, and I don’t think we can extrapolate anything from him right now. It’ll take a few election cycles before we will know exactly his impact on the party. We do know that he will provoke GOP panic.
Peale
@Captain C: One of the points in favor of the “moderate center” Democrats is that they are supposed to moderate the divisions between the factions and make sure that everyone gets at least something, but that no one faction gets too powerful. That’s the typical “golden age of capitalism” role. Cuomo can’t fill that role within the city, because Upstate and Downstate factions don’t exist in the city. He wants to pretend that the “socialists” can be ignored if he just makes alliances with Trump and kinds of Democrats who have summer mansions in the Hamptons.
suzanne
@scav:
Along with holding the left side of the party responsible for any failures or losses, but never the centrist side?
RevRick
If I were going to do post-election analysis I would choose 2 because of 4. I cannot predict how the news media will interpret the results, because I flunked mind reading in seminary.
Interesting Name Goes Here
Mamdani’s going to win.
Progressives will be over-the-moon at his victory and will view it as a mandate they can use against other Democratic candidates they view as problematic (read: not 150% in their corner and fully committed to Sparkle Motion).
The GOP will be thrilled and thanking Progressives for their fervor, because they’ll have their new Hillary Clinton.
The media will do what they usually do, and make sure it’s to the benefit of one or both of the two aforementioned entities.
As for the rest of us? This is probably going to suck.
suzanne
@RevRick:
One big lesson to learn is that coming off as a genuinely likeable, inspiring, and outgoing person with a positive vision of the future can win over some voters who might not be closely aligned with you on policy. Another is that some of these creative campaign tactics (that do not depend on mainstream media) can be really effective at grabbing attention and building excitement.
Peale
How did you do at Tarot Cards and Augury?
Omnes Omnibus
@RevRick: No, I don’t think he is sui generis. Policies and ideology aside, he is just good at campaigning in a way that a lot of politicians are not. Partly because he seems to really enjoy it.
RevRick
@Percysowner: The “public” whatever that is doesn’t matter. The electorate does, and as long as Trump is President, the electorate will have a distinctly anti Trump flavor.
Kent
What “pie in the sky” promises?
Most of what he is proposing is ordinary kitchen-table economics stuff that is already being done in various red states and cities. Oklahoma has universal free pre-K for example. Lots of bus systems around the country operate free buses. Kansas has municipal-run grocery stores in various small-town food deserts. And most red states have vastly less restrictions on home construction
That said, he doesn’t actually have the power to do most of those things. He needs to persuade the the city council, MTA, etc. So it is more of a platform than anything else.
scav
@suzanne: To be scrupulously fair, every so often a dump everything on the centrists frenzy happens here (so the tediousness is not limited to one cohort) but exactly.
The assumption that “I’m the smartest person in the room and hold the singular master key to all success in all venues at all times and you’rall doing it wrong and failing me again.” schtick.
RevRick
@Omnes Omnibus: And that’s why I think he’s sui generis. He has a charisma that outshines his policy aims. I mean, free buses and five grocery stores are not the storming of the Bastille, no matter what the GOP claims.
Soprano2
@EarthWindFire: Remember when the election of Eric Adams as mayor of NYC indicated a huge change in direction for the Democratic Party? LOL How did that turn out?
Omnes Omnibus
@scav: Look, mate, when people disagree with me, what else do you expect me to do? Be reasonable here.
Kathleen
@Scout211: I disagree. 1. The entire Media Political Propaganda Complex is based on Grandpa Grifter Democrat Deranged Syndrome Business Model because it’s easy to slam Dems and it’s very lucrative (Exhibit A Bernie’s ascension into the millionaire class after 2016 election). Dems will never ever get credit for doing anything right, 2. The only reason Dems need to listen to “conventional wisdom” is to make sure they do the total opposite. ETA This applies to legacy corrupt propaganda corporate media and the independent “new media”. IOW, all media.
RevRick
@Peale: Grease my palm, and I’ll let you know.
suzanne
@Omnes Omnibus:
Agree.
Most of us commenting here on this most-top-10,000 blog are probably introverts and subject matter experts. We’re certainly nerds. That means we’ve probably overlooked the allure and importance of retail politics, especially the 21st century version.
But every election is a popularity contest. Has been since the very first one.
Tony Jay
@Betty Cracker:
Some people just get too tightly wedded to the pleasure they get from a grudge.
Some people structure their entire personas around who they are not.
Some people find it easier to create monsters than admit they’re wrong.
Some people need a justification for defending the indefensible.
We’ve got a Government stuffed right to the brim with people like that over here, and they all hate the Left far more than they could ever hate the Right.
“Some people, Mistress Betty, just want to watch the Left burn…”
Geminid
@suzanne: I wanted to push back on the implication that people who object to Zohran Mamdani’s DSA affiliation somehow did not want one million New York voters in the Democratic big tent. Almost all of them have been in it all along..
I have reservations about the DSA myself, and I understand how other Democrats could have them too. If I lived in New York City I would vote for Mamdani despite those reservations, and I suspect that is the posture of many New Yorkers who will vote him.
Anyway, almost all my problems with the DSA relate to their foreign policy positions, and that area is of marginal importance for a New York mayor.
Kathleen
@artem1s: Political Propaganda Complex: “But let’s talk about how and who covered up Biden’s total inability to govern for 4 years.”
Old School
Dispatches from the Sandwich assault trial:
p.a.
Last night Cuomo rejected tRump’s endorsement.
His statement: “I can’t accept an endorsement from such a flawed, indeed despicable human being. And believe me, I’ve studied the despicable playbook cover to cover.”
Kathleen
@UncleEbeneezer: I take it seriously and am concerned. Other than that statement I say nothing about him on this site and very little on XEET.
Kathleen
@Miss Bianca: Perfect.
Omnes Omnibus
@suzanne: I think I am probably less of an introvert than a lot of the commenters here. That’s why I have been less enthused about the idea of working from home than many. I’d hate it. It is also, I think, why I saw the appeal of 2020 Biden before many here did. And Mamdani has the same “Oh, cool, I get to go talking to people today” energy that Biden had at his best.
p.a.
@Omnes Omnibus: And Bill Clinton.
laura
@suzanne: And yet, lots and lots of Bernie. You can continue to praise him. Wouldn’t be me, but do go on, it’s a marginally free country.
@PatD: I said what I said.
Jackie
@Old School: Lairmore‘s obvious lies about the exploding sandwich is only going to give his fellow cops more fodder to torment him with. Something about him has me believing he’s not well liked by his colleagues.
scav
It’s sooooooo hard being surrounded by such perfection in all things avatars here. There are so many of you and you’re all different! There I go, being all silly again. Jackal away with abandon!
PatD
@Geminid: I already responded to this but wanted to state that I don’t particularly care what one’s ideology is as long as you vote for the Dem candidate. Being a member of DSA and voting for the Democratic Party is not mutually exclusive. Of course the majority of today’s vote will be made up of Dem partisans who would vote for the Dem nominee regardless but I also think it’s very important to normalize voting for Democrats by people who considered themselves outside the party.
suzanne
@Omnes Omnibus:
Agree very much.
I also have been deeply impressed by how he’s broken through and built attention for himself without mainstream media. He’s proven it can be done. The mainstream media grows less relevant with every passing day and our candidates should be taking notes about what they have just seen. He came to national attention without bigass ad buys and direct mail and all that crap that was relevant when I was a teenager.
PatD
@laura: that’s great, we all get to have an opinion. I also said what I said.
Kathleen
@laura: I agree with you for what that’s worth.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@arrieve:
I agree with this.
suzanne
@laura:
I haven’t said anything substantive about Bernie Sanders in probably five years. I think the only times I’ve mentioned him since is in the context of saying, “Bernie Sanders is not relevant to our current politics”. I do not understand why anyone cares about him at this point. He has his very small group of diehards on Xhitter and maybe if they all got together to hang out, they could fit in the community room at the branch library down the street. They do not matter, numerically or otherwise.
Meanwhile, some chunk of the centrists in the party seems to be doing their best to alienate progressive Democrats. You know, the ones who show up for Elizabeth Warren, AOC, Chris DeLuzio, Ilhan Omar, and many others. I don’t know why anyone thinks that driving out progressives serves the Democrats well, but then again, I can add.
Another Scott
@suzanne: Mamdani has done well, but he’s raised almost $17.2M in private and public funds.
Money still matters a lot. The days of Proxmire winning races without fundraising and spending $200 total are long, long gone.
(The country will be so much better off when we finally have sensible public financing of all political campaigns…)
Thanks.
Best wishes,
Scott.
Darkrose
@artem1s: What on earth makes you think Mamdani is going to say something rabidly antisemitic?
cain
@Fair Economist:
It will be pretty predictable that Trump will say the elections are rigged and he will try to “investigate” it all. To him, America is disloyal.
WTFGhost
Regardless of the four, I’ll ask a question. Pundits have been saying we have to throw some people under the bus.
Mamdani is doing this, yes? I mean, how he’s handling those issues is expressly throwing some folks in the coalition under the bus? If not: the pundits are wrong, and my preferred narrative is correct: you can ignore certain issues, if you can generate real, unassailable, excitement on other, more meaningful issues.
So, all you have to do is born with the same gifts as a rare politician… no, obviously not, but, it does mean you don’t always have to engage at all. If you’ve got people excited by Issue_X, no one is going to listen to nasty little lies about letting boys into girls bathrooms. People will only listen to that around the margins, and that’s what Republicans do, is try to force the election to be about the issues where bigotry sells, so they can peel off marginal support. A candidate needs to find a way to engage differently than others who’ve failed, engaging directly on the bigotry battlefield.
Interesting Name Goes Here
@suzanne: You know better than to say this. Progressives adore Bernie, and the media will give him a podium from now until the day his blood stops pumping and likely years beyond that because of what he does. He is as irrelevant to modern-day politics as Max Verstappen is to modern-day Formula 1, no matter how much you wish it not to be true. And that’s a problem that won’t go away for at least a generation.
cain
@suzanne:
My wife adores him, his fluency is different foreign languages – Urdu, Hindi, Spanish, and so on. His ability to be cool. He’s both Biden and Obama.
I wish Mandani well, NYC is a hard nut to crack and I know the past decade of mayors have been utter shit. So, I’m really hoping that he can help NYC. His success is our success.
I hear Nancy Pelosi wants to quit politics. Perhaps the old guard is ready to relinquish control at last.
Funny how us Gen Xers have been completely skipped.
chemiclord
@Gretchen: The issue is less “can they do this?” and more “will NYC let him do this?”
Like all of those things you lost aren’t things Mamdani can do from his seat in the mayor’s office. He can influence some, through various council selections, and the busses is something he has no power over at all, that’s handled by the state legislature.
I’m not inclined any of those agencies are gonna be willing to do him a solid on that score.
Will New Yorkers be willing to support him in a reelection bid when the busses aren’t free and rent keeps going up?
History suggests they will not.
cain
@suzanne:
We talk more about Bernie here than anywhere else.
Miss Bianca
@suzanne: you know, you could easily rinse/repeat that meme for anyone and everyone who runs as a Democratic candidate.
Ishiyama
@Another Scott: Hey, Bill Proxmire was my Senator; he used to shake hands at the Oscar Mayer factory gate in Madison just before the election. His office gave me a copy of the Constitution to take with me to law school. I still treasure it.
suzanne
@Interesting Name Goes Here: Most progressives think Bernie is….. fine. (I actually hang out with my neighborhood progressives, LOL. Most of them feel positively toward him, but they feel more positively about others.) I don’t think they have a real “leader”, per se, but if I had to name one, it’s AOC.
Bernie’s moment is over and has been for a long time.
@cain: Yeah. I know. I hear more about Bernie Sanders here — by, like, a factor of 10 — than I do in my neighborhood group, or in the other online politics group I’m in (which is younger and more racially mixed than BJ). My brother-in-law is someone y’all would absolutely consider a Berniebro, and he voted for Harris. LOL.
WTFGhost
Okay, so, this is a Dem-hater, who assume Dems are only good at mounting slogans, and declaring class warfare, good to know. Now, if Dems were Republicans, this person would be washed up as a political reporter, unable to get any interview or any tips from any Democratic[sic, EmEffer, SIC] source ever again, because of this intense partisan hostility shown to the Democrats. YOU NEED US, MR. POLITICAL REPORTER! You want to keep your cushy politics reporting job? You learn to play the game right!
Subject change: it’s really weird to write, and forget how to spell words that I know full well how to spell, between conceiving the word, and typing the word – completely incorrectly, like “kushy” vs “cushy” for job. This happens when the neuro pain pulses on, and off, and on, and off. Thank you for letting me practice being human; I hope I’m not breaking brains for the wrong reason today. Now, let all us humans make a jolly sound, from deep in our guts, forcing air through our vocal cords, just as we humanfolk do, OH, OH, OH!!! Damn, got it backwards. AGAIN.
HO HO HO!
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@scav:
@suzanne:
‘Dumping on Centrists’ happens quite a bit around here. In particular, there’s a view by some that Centrists are either secret Republicans or people too cynical to vote for the ‘better’ candidate. At least for me, neither of those things are true and I’d argue they are usually not true for most people who get labeled as ‘Centrists’. At the end of the day, though, I dont live in NYC. I don’t care who New Yorkers vote for as long as it isn’t a Republican. I think non-New Yorkers are focusing way too much on this race.
suzanne
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: The “centrists are really Republicans” is a bit of dumbassery that gets uttered here a lot, you’re right.
Usually it’s in the context of pundits, like Ezra Klein or Matt Yglesias or whomever. It’s like, they’re not Republicans, they’re just wrong! Just being wrong is a common variation of human! LOL.
Geminid
@cain: I’m not sure of the age parameters, but I think Hakeem Jeffries is GenX. If he is, so are Mikie Sherrill, Elissa Slotkin, and (I think) Abigail Spanberger. Also, Angela Alsobrooks. There are many other Democrats in Congress in that age group. I think Governors Pritzker, Newsom, Shapiro and Whitmer are also.
Minirity Whip
p.a.
@Interesting Name Goes Here: ??? Verstappen won in ’21, ’22, ’23, and ’24.
PatD
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: I’d argue no one on this blog is remotely close to being a centrist and there’s little reason to be offended by its usage as a slur. A centrist is essentially someone who’s open to voting for Republicans over Democrats.
Geminid
I thought this was funny. Rep. Don Beyer’s chief of staff, Aaron Fritchner, reposted this from Marjorie Taylor Greene:
Fritchner tweeted:
JoeyJoeJoe
@Another Scott: Former Congressman William Natcher of Kentucky never accepted campaign contributions and never spent any money other than his own on his reelection campaigns:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Natcher
WaterGirl
@Interesting Name Goes Here:
Can you define progressives here? Because I have always considered myself progressive, as opposed to liberal.
And I have never been a fan of Bernie, though I have never loathed him as some do.
But lately I am starting to! There is something repulsive about the way he puts his arm around AOC in a video and I cringed through the entire first part of the new ad – Bernie is clearly having them bow before the king. It’s just gross.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@PatD: People who sincere left-leaning moderates are frequently called Centrists. That happens here and elsewhere. It is meant as a slur.
WTFGhost
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: yeah, it’s complicated.
Any centrist, who pretends that both parties are acting in good faith, and therefore, the “correct” answer is some compromise between them, might as well be a Republican, because Republicans will always stake out an extreme position, so the centrist will always be on the Republican side of the metaphorical Rubicon.
Any centrist, who tries to stake out a middle ground of buying goods with necessary evils, to find a moderate position, will usually want Democrats in office right now, but only because Democrats haven’t tried to shut Republicans out of the process.
Republicans have blatantly tried to reduce the power and number of Democrats, and they’ll even admit they have a corrupt, partisan, gerrymander in Texas, for example. So even if the centrist *position* happened to be “left leaning Republican,” I believe that an informed centrist would want a right-leaning Democrat to implement that position.
Also: it’s okay to say a partisan gerrymander is “…lawful corruption, thanks to the supreme court.” Everyone knows the Republican SoS is there to serve the people, and choosing to serve the Republican Party before “the people” is corrupt. I mean, it’s not a difficult logic problem.
Another Scott
@JoeyJoeJoe: Interesting. Thanks.
Another example that ‘the exception proves the rule’?
Best wishes,
Scott.
WTFGhost
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Man. You make me kinda glad I don’t get out much, if there’s as much ugly going on out there as you say. No offense intended to you, I assume you’re on the front lines with your machine gun of quiet harmony, fighting honorably and proudly, just, wow. I can *get* some mental shorthand, but I don’t get quiet hatred.
(Quiet hatred: the kind of hate, where you don’t even realize you’re giving it, but it demeans the object of your hate in your eyes. For example, spit on a man. You’ll either have a normal, human, “OMG, I could never,” reaction, or, you’ll spit on the person, and feel disgusted with them. Unless its me, and I go berserk, and then *you* will know PTSD and its horrors too.
Quiet hatred is where you spit on a picture of a person, who isn’t going to traumatize you. And you know that it’s just a picture, ain’t no one hurt, but, before you can spit on a picture of a person, you’re imagining spitting on that person, and feeling the kind of contempt you feel for someone you spit on.
So, Democrat Party? Quiet hatred: they don’t even get their chosen name, a name is forced upon them. Berating people, who may be in sincere good faith, because you “know better” than to have their views, but won’t explain your better knowledge? “OOOOOOooooh, you’re a REPUBLICAN!!!!”? That’s quiet hatred, for 10,000 Alex, and I remembered to provide the answer in the form of a question :-).
)– closing paren
PatD
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: This is not what is generally described as centrism. Every party has moderates. A centrist, however, is open to both sides and willing to go to the other side depending on who appeals to them more on certain issues. Manchin and Sinema are examples of centrist politicians. There’s not a current Democrat in the Senate I’d describe that way other than post-stroke Fetterman. The Dem minority in the House has a couple.
You are not a centrist and neither is 99% of this blog. For some reason you’ve internalized that when people criticize centrists they are criticizing you. This isn’t really the case.
Matt McIrvin
I still bristle a little at attacks on “centrists” just because on the old Twitter dirtbag left, Democrats and liberals were considered the centrists, or sometimes as center-right.
Geminid
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: That bugs me too. I think in these cases the word “centrist” is used invidiously.
Some of this is unconcious though. People are conditioned somewhat by the media sites they see, and journalists often use “Centrist” to describe moderate Democratic officeholders.
I don’t understand why they don’t use “Moderate” instead, bacause that is what these politicians are. My cynical side tells me they either look down on these moderate Democrats and want disparage them, or they want to portray a polarized party.. More likely they are just lazy, and following the crowd.
Miss Bianca
@Old School: OMG, I am laughing so hard at this over here I can barely breathe!
God, you gotta take the laughs where you can, these days…
Miss Bianca
@suzanne:
@Omnes Omnibus: I agree with you both about the happy retail politicking energy of the guy, and also how great it is that he broke through the mass media and consultant-fueled bubbles with his candidacy.
tam1MI
@suzanne: Along with holding the left side of the party responsible for any failures or losses, but never the centrist side?
The left side of the party has built a rep for never showing up on election day. Ergo, the left side of the party gets held responsible for the consequences of not showing up.
tam1MI
@Soprano2: Remember when the election of Eric Adams as mayor of NYC indicated a huge change in direction for the Democratic Party? LOL How did that turn out?
I remember when Bill de Blasio was a progressive darling.
WaterGirl
@tam1MI:
NYC is hard to mayor. :-)
But at least the major will be someone who truly wants to make things better. High hopes that he won’t be as power hungry and corruptible as many of the others have been.
Peale
The people who don’t show up for election day tend to be the youth and one of the mistakes I think gets made all the time is thinking “youth” = “left leaning politics.” Like there is an assumption that if you’re under 30, you should be all aboard the DSA when its possible that the reason the youth don’t show up is that they aren’t leftist…in fact…they might not have much of an opinion one way or the other.
Peale
@Matt McIrvin: If this party were in any other country, the Democrats would be seen as REACTIONARY!
Says people who haven’t actually been to other countries.
Kathleen
@Geminid: Fun OT fact – MJT teaches a very popular Cross Fit class at the Capitol.
scav
Judging from the sheer variety of contradictory definitions of “centrists”, they too are just an ethereal grouping that many have chosen to approve of / hate / blame for individual reasons. There’s no real agreement as to whether they’re at the so-called center of the democratic party, center of the American electorate or even once seemingly the international electorate.
Matt McIrvin
@Peale: Sometimes they’re people who haven’t been to the United States.
The Democratic Party *is* pretty solidly center-left by European standards. Not right-wing, but the ideological mean of the Democrats is more moderate than most of their left parties in most ways, while the Republicans are extreme, basically an overtly fascist party at this point.
But that comparison obscures internal difference–most European multiparty systems have relatively ideologically narrow parties, and the Democrats are a big tent with a huge internal spread, because of the way we do political coalitions.
rikyrah
How about the Democratic Party that wins is what touches the LOCAL CONSTITUENTS.
THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS NOT ONE SIZE FITS ALL.
What works in NYC is not going to work for the State of Virginia. What works in Jersey isn’t appropriate for Minnesota.
Kayla Rudbek
@Gretchen: yeah, when you’re in a negotiation, you always start out by asking for more than you realistically think you’ll get (I specifically took the negotiation workshop in law school because getting a patent is basically a negotiation process).
I tell inventors that the patent attorney is supposed to overshoot at least a little bit on the initial patent application…