I’m not the praying type (there’s the disbelief in gods thing), but if I were, I’d send one up for Mexico right about now:
Hurricane Patricia is forecast to make landfall pretty soon as the strongest hurricane in history. Here’s hoping people got the hell out of the way while they still could. As usual, the people who can least afford it will likely bear the brunt. They will need our help.
Open thread.
ThresherK (GPad)
I loathe El Tri. But not to this extent.
Dork
Oh to be the owner of a Inflatable Raft & Canned GoodsMart in Puerto Vallarta right now.
Sourmash
Yes they will. PV and manzanilla are lovely places but I’ve watched construction there and it’s not particularly robust. Lets hope there’s not too great loss of life.
Punchy
Any word on the size/extent of the storm surge? I’m guessing it’s going to completely obliterate the first half-mile of inland area.
summer
Say a little prayer for the University of North Carolina system too, please. Margaret Spellings has just been chosen president.
Elie
How populated is the area where its coming ashore? Is it mostly lowland shoreline or is it at least a little hilly? All those factors will play a huge role. Also, can it hit the Gulf and re-energize as a Gulf Hurricane?
benw
I hope everyone south of the border is okay. I’m home with a sick daughter, 101 fever. Boo.
Mark B.
@Punchy: I’ve seen estimates of 20-40 feet. That seems way beyond anything I’ve ever heard of. At least it looks like the heaviest part will land between Manzanillo and Puerta Vallarta, so hopefully it won’t be a direct hit on an urban coastal city.
summer
A friend in Puerta Vallerta sent out photos of the boarded up buildings earlier today. Evidently the church has taken down the chandeliers, which is something.
Mark B.
@Elie: Current tracks have it going inland and heading northeastish, through Texas and the Mississippi valley. Unlikely it would make it to the Gulf.
jayboat
With winds that strong the storm surge won’t matter.
eta: Well, I know the surge will matter to areas not directly in the path of the storm, but for the most part those winds will knock down everything.
Elie
@Mark B.:
Well that’s a blessing. Can you imagine if it got on those warm gulf waters, even in a diminished state?
beltane
They are saying it will make landfall at high tide. I just can’t imagine what experiencing 200mph sustained winds would be like.
Roger Moore
@Punchy:
I think they’re in slightly better position there just because the West Coast is a lot steeper than the East Coast is, so a given height of storm surge will make it a much shorter distance inland. It’s also going to hit around the neap tide rather than the spring tide, so the tidal effect will be smaller.
OldDave
Weather Underground has good information on the storm, including Jeff Master’s blog. Lived though a few storms, including Wilma, but nothing like what Patricia promises to be to those affected by her.
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
Anyone know what a good disaster relief organization in that region would be? I don’t trust the Red Cross.
Davis X. Machina
@beltane: A15-mile-wide F4 tornado.
beltane
This one also seemed to appear out of nowhere. It’s not as though people had a lot of opportunity to prepare.
John Revolta
Well the really strong winds are concentrated in a fairly narrow area right at the core, so there’s that. Scary stuff though. What’s weird and unprecedented is how fast this thing amped up to such major force. Mrs. R (who studies this stuff) blames the warm ocean water associated with the current El Nino.
beltane
@Mnemosyne (iPhone): Not to say I trust the Catholic church per se, but some of the Catholic relief agencies probably have very good organization on the ground there.
kindness
Betty is it true that the highest natural land in Florida is 8 feet over sea level?
Applejinx
Climate change y’all.
This is why Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders are telling you it is the greatest threat facing the country (all countries).
Highest sustained winds EVER. Lowest central pressure EVER. This is what the chaotic system of Earth’s climate does when you increase the energy driving it. You get more extreme outlier events like hurricanes, typhoons, tsunami, tornadoes.
This shit can make Hiroshima look weak in terms of property damage. It’s an assault on your country’s cities, people and infrastructure comparable to an all-out nuclear attack (if not now, then keep doing the climate change and see what you get) and you’ve got nobody to blame but yourself for not listening when people started warning you.
THE biggest existential threat to countries in 2015 and beyond. There is no other country that can obliterate your world and wipe out your ability to maintain civilization like a series of cat 5 or cat 6 hurricanes. And because it’s weather, it’s unpredictable and NEVER STOPS, it will just keep on happening over and over while you piss away money like water helplessly trying to rebuild. And all the other countries are in the same boat and can’t help.
We’re turning Earth into a hostile alien planet, slowly and steadily. By the time everybody understands this is the biggest issue around, our lives will already have changed incredibly. Learn to live in weather conditions of unthinkable savagery, and don’t count on having much in the way of property because just about everything is destroyed with enough tornado or hurricane. Hell, even virtual stuff doesn’t work so good without electricity.
Mary G
@OldDave: That blog is excellent, thanks. Here is some info from it:
C.V. Danes
@Davis X. Machina: Exactly. Without sharks.
Woodrowfan
I thought they were typhoons in the Pacific and hurricanes in the Atlantic?
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@beltane:
Fortunately, the government of Mexico has put a lot of emphasis on disaster preparedness in the last couple of decades — primarily earthquake preparedness, but that will help in this situation as well since building codes were improved, etc. They had a major (7.4) quake in 2012 with 0 deaths reported:
http://m.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2012/0321/Better-prepared-Mexico-s-7.4-quake-causes-damage-but-no-deaths
beltane
@Woodrowfan: West of the Date Line they are typhoons, east of it they are hurricanes.
jayboat
Been trying not to think about this, but I’m sure the next few days will find us covered in media breathlessness. I’ve been through nine hurricanes, including a direct hit from Charley that wiped me out and nearly killed me.
Wouldn’t wish the experience on anyone.
JPL
The Weather Channel has been doing excellent coverage all day. They have a new program at six, I think that’s correct called Weather Underground. They should have extensive coverage then.
ArchTeryx
@Davis X. Machina: With inflow and outflow winds a good hundred miles to either side. Yeah. It’s basically a really, really big tornado at this point in its lifecycle.
Time to get out my old, very dark Peter Schilling song “The Hurricane (Hammers On The Shore)”
The restless clouds are circling
like birds of prey in flight
and nature lifts an angry hand
posed and set to strike
And every man will know the power
that marked the planet’s birth
the hurricane, the hurricane
returns us to the earth…
Davis X. Machina
@beltane: Catholic Relief Services is pretty good esp. when the country has a Catholic tradition. Parishes provide pre-existing chains of command and direction.
If the disaster’s in the US, I’ll often give to the closest Society of St. Vincent DePaul .
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@beltane:
Can’t add to my comment above but I think the Mexican government is going to be much better prepared to respond to this than the US government was to Katrina, sad as that is to say.
Applejinx
@John Revolta: Unprecedented, yes. Weird, no. This is exactly as predicted.
Science knows this would happen. Ever since we started unlocking the secrets of chaotic systems this has been well understood. Climate’s the biggest chaotic system there is.
There is nothing weird about this at all. This is the new direction. Not the new normal because that implies they’re all going to be like this from now on. The reality’s worse.
The new normal is for each new weather disaster to be ‘unprecedented and weird’ and it’s been happening for years already and not slowing down but speeding up.
Alarmist? Fuck yes. Alarms are necessary and this is what they’re for. We are soon going to need to concentrate on clinging to life on this fucking planet, never mind ‘fighting climate change’. Climate’s WAAAAAY bigger than us. We’re pretty smart humans and we’ll succeed in adapting, but it’s gonna look like colonizing Venus and Mars put together, and one hell of a lot of innocent people will die in vast numbers trying to survive this.
Maybe we can string up some Koches at some point to make ourselves feel better, because this was DONE by the decisions of stupid people, much like an avalanche can be kicked off by a person pushing over a snowbank.
Failing that, somebody film this. Media might not want to undermine vested interests, but media can’t help but drool over footage of outrageous unthinkable destruction. Use that.
Rand Careaga
Owing to the press of work, the spousette and I were obliged to decline the kind invitation of a friend to join him this month at his beachside condominium a few miles south of PV. He’s there now.
Richard MAyhew
@Davis X. Machina: Worse, the difference is persistance of the winds
A tornado has peak winds at a particular place for a few minutes, while a slow moving hurricane could have winds between 90% and 100% of peak for half an hour or more and 70% peak for hours
Roger Moore
@kindness:
No, it is not. The highest part of the Florida Peninsula is just over 300 feet above sea level. That isn’t terribly high, but it’s high enough to stay above water even if the Antarctic ice sheet melted.
Germy Shoemangler
@Applejinx: Have you seen this from 1958? They knew even then:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-AXBbuDxRY
Doug R
@Elie: I suspect it will drop a few categories but still hit the gulf with hurricane force.
slag
Open thread: A nice, reasonable run-down of Benghazi by a nerd bro: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btlqXbH1mCM. It’s a little “both sides-y” but reasonably so and is a pretty factual summary. Could be useful for people who know nothing about this whole shebang.
Woodrowfan
@beltane: ah, it’s the date line, thanks.
Diana
Remember how the Mayan calendar ended in 2012? Maybe they were just off by a few years.
Diana
@Mnemosyne (iPhone): this
NotMax
@Mnemosyne
Always recommend as a recipient of donations the competent, nimble, experienced and highly rated Operation USA.
Diana
@Woodrowfan: I think it may be typhoons that start below the equator and hurricanes above. Due to the geography of the continents, that means typhoons hit Asia and hurricanes hit North America.
JPL
@Rand Careaga: I hope your friend is okay.
Bill
Hoping for the best possible outcome for our friends to the south.
Not looking forward to the Republican response if they need our help.
Brachiator
@Mnemosyne (iPhone):
Catholic Relief Services is pretty good. Low overhead, and monies go to proven and sensible relief projects.
Also of course Doctors Without Borders.
Betty Cracker
@jayboat: Aw man. Charley brushed us back in aught-four, and that was scary enough. Must’ve been hell to have been in the thick of it.
Mingobat f/k/a Karen in GA
@jayboat: Damn. Sorry to hear you were wiped out, but glad you survived. My family had just returned to Cape Coral a few days earlier, after burying my late nephew in Brooklyn. They came out of the storm okay, but what a horrible time that was. I remember watching the news and thinking like everyone else that the storm would head to Tampa, when it suddenly hooked east.
They retired the name, didn’t they?
Gravenstone
My girlfriend’s sister, and her boyfriend are currently stranded in Puerto Vallarta. Needless to say, she’s not taking the situation well at all. Good thoughts always appreciated. At least they’re a few blocks off the beach and have multiple floors to go up if needed/possible.
trollhattan
Worked with guys who rode out Typhoon Paka on Guam, in their cinderblock-wall apartment. The building withstood teh 185 mph gusts but it drove water inside, right through the walls. Swaths of Andersen AFB (we had contracts there) was smashed to splinters. I blame Clinton (wait, he was president so if I understand the rules it was BUSH!)
This Mexico event could be even stronger.
JPL
@Gravenstone: Wow.. You certainly can’t blame her for being concerned.
Mingobat f/k/a Karen in GA
@Gravenstone: Good thoughts sent. I hope they stay safe.
Betty Cracker
Rand Careaga & Gravenstone: How scary. Hope they all come through it okay.
shell
@JPL: Fios dumped the Weather Channel a few months back; no idea why. They subbed some crappy forecast channel, with none of the entertainment value of WC.
Pie Happens (opiejeanne)
@Germy Shoemangler: I remember an article in the Sunday LA Times in the late 50s or early 60s that showed what would happen if the polar ice caps melted. It may have been a reprint from the NY Times. It had an impressive map of how deep the water would be and what parts of the US would be underwater.
rikyrah
The descriptions of Patricia are truly scary.
Roger Moore
@Diana:
No. Tropical storms generally don’t cross the equator, both because the wind patterns generally force them toward higher latitudes and because the Coriolis force that makes them spiral disappears at the equator.
rikyrah
Gawker @Gawker 2h2 hours ago
Texas authorities raid multiple Planned Parenthood locations, seeking patient records http://gaw.kr/LpeJyzv
Gravenstone
@shell: WC was also in a dispute with DirecTV and was off their air for a few weeks. Replaced by the Weather Network (likely the alternative you now have). Once the dispute was resolved, WC came back, and WN stayed as well. Nice to have options.
Gravenstone
@rikyrah: Erm, wouldn’t that be protected and privileged information? Would HIPPA have any bearing here at all?
Pie Happens (opiejeanne)
@shell: I think Dish may have done the same, ditched the Weather Channel; went looking for it this morning and it was gone. There’s an ok substitute but not quite as good.
Mnemosyne (tablet)
@Gravenstone:
That was my thought, too. IIRC, the Kansas abortion clinic harassment broke down in part because what the state attorney wanted to do violated HIPAA. I have a feeling the state officials who authorized this are going to get slapped down by the courts pretty quick.
BR
@Applejinx:
This is a key idea that people haven’t really gotten yet. I put it a different way: in the past we used to think that human society was separate from the environment, but interacted with it. But that was a narrow view.
In reality human society is inside of the environment and the global ecosystem — and it’s only a small part of it and isn’t in control. It’s like a shift in thinking from a geocentric solar system to a heliocentric solar system — it changes how we must look at everything.
Gin & Tonic
@rikyrah: Isn’t that a HIPAA violation?
Mnemosyne (tablet)
@BR:
Or, as I keep telling people, we don’t have to protect the planet. The planet will be just fine without us. We need to protect *ourselves,* because we need the planet way more than the planet needs us. If we go the way of the dinosaurs, the planet won’t give a shit.
Pie Happens (opiejeanne)
@rikyrah: Wait, patients’ info??? Wow.
Elie
@Applejinx:
Clarification: We are turning the earth into a hostile environment for humans. If we abuse earth too much, earth and its creatures will live on — but without us. Earth will rid itself of our torment. Very important to understand, we are pointing the gun at ourselves. The lack of birth control, the overuse of toxic substances — ultimately who cares if you are the earth? Humans will be purged or greatly diminished in numbers… an outcome we are responsible for.
Gin & Tonic
Looks like I’m slow.
Pie Happens (opiejeanne)
@Mnemosyne (tablet): Slapped down is good, but in the meantime they have those private patient records. This is Not Good.
Elie
@Mnemosyne (tablet):
Wow — we made virtually the same point…. ! I agree with you!
Botsplainer
Wind is picking up big here in Puerto Morelos, subsidiary to the other pattern. Bartenders are nursing me through my hangover with one of those spicy clamato-beer things and talking the weather and about relatives. Boats are out of the water, red flags are up and beach churn at the surf line is ugly.
Smiling Mortician
@slag: The nerd bro is spreading some of the more popular pieces of misinformation (“It took Obama weeks to say the word “terrorism”), so I recommend passing on sharing it with anyone who wants to actually understand.
Woodrowfan
@Diana: except typhoons hit Japan and the Philippines all the time, and they’re north of the Equator.
JPL
@Smiling Mortician: haha .. . Internet rumors are the source of hard news for some.
Iowa Old Lady
@Pie Happens (opiejeanne): Yeah, and the intimidation factor to patients and employees has been upped. I found this story horrifying.
Helmut Monotreme
@Roger Moore: you misunderstand I think. Or maybe Diana misunderstands. But, “big spinny tropical storms” are called hurricanes in the western hemisphere, typhoons in the eastern pacific, and cyclones in the Indian ocean. They can appear above the equator or below it, but as you correctly state, they don’t cross the equator.
elmo
Jesus. I had a really lovely fantastic vacation in Manzanillo, in a villa right on the water where they filmed “Day of the Iguana.” Bar area open to the outdoors because it’s never cold, and the view was spectacular. Great staff, amazing food.
I really hope they’re all okay.
Fair Economist
@Diana: No, they’re hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere east of the date line, Typhoons in the Northern Hemisphere west of the date line, and cyclones anywhere in the Southern Hemisphere (although cyclones east of the date line are rare).
dedc79
Congressman Schiff, fresh off a great defensive performance at yesterday’s “Benghazi” hearing (seriously, he was awesome), delivers a not-so-stirring rendition of “Meet the Mets.” Yes, he lost a bet.
Elizabelle
Hurricane Patricia arrives to remind us who the real disruptor and job creator is.
Krugman has a good column today, ostensibly about Justin Trudeau: Keynes Comes to Canada. Includes fact that Canada did not embrace bank deregulation as we did; came through 2008 and its fallout easier.
K-Thug:
Why mention this in a thread about an impending mega-hurricane? Because this might be a good time for Democrats to discuss, fulsomely, spending on our infrastructure to help bring us up to code for climate change effects
Jobs. Jobs. Jobs. Public investment. We’re not doing great with our gazillionaires funding Republicans like they once built a stable of race horses or luxury cars.
Column about Canada, but aimed squarely at Hillary Clinton. Bernie’s already there.
The Republicans and their funders won’t get there. Weirdly, Trump might support something along these lines. It’s a huuuuge idea, with a lot of money to go around.
Elizabelle
Out for a bike ride. Catch you soon.
Look forward to Redshift’s recap of Hillary’s Old Town Alexandria event today. Maybe C-Span will air it later.
Bernie’s coming to George Mason U on Wednesday.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Botsplainer: Aren’t hangovers hard on diving? Hope everyone’s well and safe down there. At least you’ve got good barnurses.
The monster storm is really scary, and the folks in the worst part of the path are fortunate that the country has taken preparedness seriously. Unlike so many local/national governments to the north.
Mnemosyne (tablet)
@Iowa Old Lady:
IANAL, just someone who used to work in healthcare, but I believe it’s illegal under HIPAA for the state to release any identifying information from those files. It’s absolutely an intimidation tactic, because there isn’t any other point to doing it since they can’t release the information. I’m not even sure they would be allowed to start a prosecution against a specific person based on something they found in those files but again IANAL.
Jparente
@OldDave: I’m a Superstorm Sandy survivor. We saw a 10′ surge in my South Shore L.I. town. I can picture a 20′ surge and brothers and sisters, it is frightening!
trollhattan
@Fair Economist: The Beeb shares this graphic from NOAA showing which occurs where. Expect this question on your medterms.
Iowa Old Lady
@Mnemosyne (tablet): What really horrified me was the use of law officers to intimidate Planned Parenthood. The government of Texas used law officers to violate the law. In that kind of situation, your recourses are slow and far away.
Roger Moore
@Woodrowfan:
All of Asia is north of the equator. The southernmost point in Asia is Singapore, which is just north of the equator.
Elie
@Botsplainer:
Be safe and take care…. Wow
Grumpy Code Monkey
We’re getting a shitload of rain in Central TX, and it’s going to get worse tomorrow; we’re under a flash flood watch until Sunday morning. This thing’s projected to roll right over us. The winds will be gone, naturally, but the rain will still be there.
Cannot picture sustained 200 mph winds – that’s insane.
Randy P
@Mnemosyne (iPhone): Medecins Sans Frontieres or Doctors Without Borders. They are amazing.
You may have heard their name in the news lately.
They will be there as soon as the storm passes. I guarantee it. And doing incredible work.
Gin & Tonic
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): My son has spent the last week and a half in coastal and rural areas of Oaxaca and Guerrero (south of the projected impact zone) and his concise statement today was “rural areas are screwed.” He’s back in DF tonight, so I’m a lot less concerned about his well-being.
Heliopause
This hurricane developed very quickly and seems to have trapped many American tourists in their hotels, hence our news media’s interest.
OldDave
@Jparente:
Sandy was miles offshore when she passed us in the Ft. Lauderdale area, and still managed to tear up the Pompano Beach Pier (YouTube video) – so I can imagine what she must have been like up close and personal.
Matt McIrvin
@Elizabelle: I’ve been getting in so many arguments about this kind of thing. Conservatives and libertarians are inextricably wedded to the idea that the ills of modern society stem from the moral hazard of welfare handouts, the takers as the boat anchor weighing down the makers. If you suggest that the people accumulating money hand over fist while others work for pittance wages are takers, and that redistribution might just be a way to partially restore balance, you get accused of totalitarianism, in language laden with Communist and Nazi references. No middle ground.
Pie Happens (opiejeanne)
@Iowa Old Lady: There was a brief bit of nastiness in California, when nurses were required by law to ask women in the maternity ward how many live births they’d had, and how many were otherwise. I can’t remember if it was in 79 or 82 that the nurse asked me, and then smiled and told me I didn’t have to answer any of it. I told her three live births and the rest was nobody’s business and she agreed; I loved Kaiser.
Jparente
@Mnemosyne (iPhone): Or Sandy, I might add. FEMA, HUD, NYRising (NY State agency administering HUD funds and FEMA rules) and the SBA have been horrible. The principle behind them is: finance it yourself and expect 30%-50% grant after everything is finished. It has ruined lives.
I can’t say for certain but I believe the current rules were enacted in 2013 in an effort to introduce “fiscal responsibility” (B.S. term meaning: you are Scr#@ed)
Bobby Thomson
@Mnemosyne (tablet): one of my technical writing professors emphasized that fact. Another point was to avoid teleogical explanations of biological phenomena.
Botsplainer
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
Higher O2 percentages in Nitrox clear that right up – I’ll be fairly responsible tonight. No more Havana Club binges or 5 shot gun experiments followed by an embarrassing visit to a bar and naked solicitation of lovely bartendress to dirty deeds.
I went in for lunch – she shook her head at me, treated me kindly, fed me and tended the first bits of hangover before saying “do you remember anything of last night?” I lied and said no, haha.
Bobby Thomson
@Fair Economist: Everything but the poles is both west and east of the date line. Here’s what NOAA says.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Gin & Tonic: I’m glad to hear you son is in a safer spot, and I hate to hear the rural folks are screwed. It’s always the ones who can least afford it.
I imagine the gentleman from the People’s Islamic Socialist Republic of Louisville isn’t doing much diving in this weather, so the bar’s probably the best place.
gene108
@trollhattan:
When people use this reference, I initially always think they are talking about Justin Beiber.
Gin & Tonic
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): From his latest recounting, the bar may not be the best place.
trollhattan
@gene108:
He’s everywhere, I tells ya. BEEEEBERRR!!!
Jparente
@OldDave: Funny thing, OldDave, I have no problem with an awsome act of Nature. The “recovery” is a nightmare. Look up the term “duplication of benefits”. Look up “Superstorm Sandy insurance fraud” and “Superstorm Sandy adjuster’s fraud” . When we are down were out and out lied to by the insurance companies. I’m trying to give my home back to the bank. I broke because of the process. Post storm PTSD coupled with complicated, contradictory information has ruined lives in this area.
Myself and others are fighting back and re-opening our flood claims. I’m using a NOLA Attorney who helped force FEMA re-open the claims. Myself and everyone else who was declared “substantially damaged” was lowballed.
Dave, if you and anyone else, at risk from a major natural disaster are indeed hit by one remember one thing: your insurance adjuster and his masters, the insurance companies, are lying to you.
Jparente
@Jparente: @Jparente: I’m now convinced of one thing: when I type, I need to wear my glasses! Too many typos! LOL
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@Randy P:
MSF is always a worthy donation, but I’m not sure they’ll be needed (or rather, there will be other places that need them more). Puerto Vallerta is a pretty modern city and the Mexican government sounds prepared for immediate relief of the affected areas.
G&T is probably right that the rural areas are going to be hard-hit, though.
Betty Cracker
@Pie Happens (opiejeanne): I was asked that in 1998 in front of my mother!
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@Jparente:
And the same Congressional assholes who passed those new regulations are the ones who were whining about how they totally needed federal flood relief funds in South Carolina, unlike you whiny people in NY and NJ. And they seem to not have had a single moment of realization that EVERY state gets hit with natural disasters, and only assholes demand help for their state while denying it to other states.
Freemark
How can you successfully prepare a normal home for a F3-F4 SUSTAINED tornado? Even if you have a well-built home and can afford plywood and other prep items. I can’t imagine what the majority in the area that don’t even have that are going to do. Damn.
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@Freemark:
The one hopeful thing is that Mexico has had pretty strong building codes since they had a devastating *earthquake* in 1985, and the codes that make a building earthquake-safe will also make it resistant to a hurricane (except for the windows, of course). It’s not like Haiti, where they had no building codes at all.
The Mexican government has announced that they’ve opened over 1700 shelters and have 50K relief workers standing by to come in as soon as the storm passes, so they’re taking this very seriously.
(Edited to clarify that it was an earthquake that changed Mexico’s building codes.)
Hildebrand
@Brachiator: Another very good group, the money goes right to where it needs to go, very low overhead, great ratings: Lutheran Disaster Response
Roger Moore
@Freemark:
The only thing you can do is to build it strong enough to withstand those forces from the beginning. It’s certainly possible, and not necessarily even that expensive if you think about it during the design stage, but gets harder the further into the construction process you go. If you don’t think about hurricane-proofing the house until after it’s built, you’re in trouble.
Diana
@Roger Moore: Thank you, question was already previously answered as the date line. My bad, apologies to all.
Diana
@Helmut Monotreme: @Roger Moore: I know nothing and never should have posted. So the naming is just a convention? Interesting.
Roger Moore
@Diana:
Some of it is just a convention, but the behavior of the storms does depend on their environment. That means that typhoons, hurricanes, and cyclones aren’t exactly the same thing; they have some differences in behavior because they’re interacting with different oceans and different landmasses.
trollhattan
This caught me short.
So, for ranking Patricia they’ve stuffed her size 7 feet into 5s because 5 is the biggest shoe made.
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@Roger Moore:
The stuff I was reading online said that earthquake building codes should help their buildings withstand hurricanes, but IANA architect. I wonder if Suzanne would know.
Also, too, the CNN story I read said that the El Niño conditions may be part of what boosted the hurricane up to this size. Now I feel weirdly guilty.
C.V. Danes
@rikyrah: I’d chip in 5 bucks towards the restocking fee to give Texas back to Mexico.
C.V. Danes
@Applejinx: We won’t be fighting climate change. We’ll be fighting each other over the habitable climate that’s left.
trollhattan
@Mnemosyne (iPhone):
In hurricane country they have things called hurricane clips that supposedly hold the roof down against the wind’s lift; we don’t have anything similar to my knowledge. My Florida-dwelling aunt also had functioning storm shutters for her windows, which seemed a lot smarter than fighting over OSB sheets down at the Home Depot six hours before a storm is due to hit.
Suspect in both settings they want walls very well anchored to the foundation.
Roger Moore
@trollhattan:
You’re right about the hurricane clips and the storm shutters, but the kind of diagonal bracing required to resist earthquake forces should also make the houses strong against horizontal loading from winds. The bigger problem, though, is that the winds aren’t just air; they blow solid objects, which can get going a substantial percentage of the wind speed. 100+ mph tree branches are going to be a serious threat to any construction that wasn’t designed specifically to resist that kind of thing.
Gimlet
Don’t see anyway to get the numbers to rise unless he’s sticks around to see if one or more of the candidates self-destruct.
Jeb Bush “will attend a finance meeting this weekend in Houston convened by former President George H. W. Bush and attended by Bush’s brother, former President George W. Bush,” CBS News has learned.
“The session, designed to assess where Bush’s candidacy stands in the face of large-scale staff cutbacks and underwhelming poll numbers, will also be attended by Bush’s mother, Barbara Bush. The governor’s campaign confirmed the meeting will be held Sunday and Monday.”
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@trollhattan:
@Roger Moore:
From what I was reading, for the most part they shouldn’t have the kind of outright building collapses (and resultant deaths) that occur in places with no or weak building codes. There will still be a lot of property damage, but the building codes in place should help prevent some avoidable deaths and injuries.
Gimlet
@Mnemosyne (iPhone):
I hear cameras are in place to film the next sequel to “Sharknado”.
Steeplejack
@Roger Moore:
The highest point in Florida is Britton Hill in north Florida, at 345 feet above sea level. Outside of “peninsular,” true.
Keith G
Bugger. My Sunday go-to-work time is 5 AM and that is, in theory, gonna be the middle of our (Houston) very wet, stormy weather.
TRMS has Tweeted a preview of Rachel’s interview with Hillary.
Applejinx
@Gimlet: Oh, God. That IS the next sequel to Sharknado!
Worst. Party. Ever! D:
Steeplejack
If you get Galavisión on your cable system, they have preëmpted their usual programming for live coverage of Patricia (in Spanish, of course). Currently showing live beach cams from Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.
sharl
@Smiling Mortician:
It took me a few hours to actually get around to going to my open tab containing this YouTube and watching/listening to it, but I see you already found the one flaw that jumped out at me.
From the YouTube clip by those fast-talkin’ hipster-nerd guys, around 4m5s-4m7s: “it was weeks before he [Obama] used the word ‘terrorist’”
CNN (CNN…yeah, I know…) – CNN Fact Check: A day after Libya attack, Obama described it as ‘acts of terror’
I think watching this could actually be a useful lesson in the value of skepticism, at least for those who (like me) get pissed whenever we feel like we’ve been punked by the media, whether through incompetence, laziness, or willful misdirection. The lesson is that even an adorable, fast-paced delivery by a couple of hipster nerds does not mean they did that very boring homework/background research that is essential for maximizing reporting accuracy.
I gotta say, though, that the self-confidence exuding from these nerd-bros almost had ME questioning my own memories of that bullshit Mittster claim that the President avoided use of one of the various forms of the ‘T’ word shortly after the Benghazi attack.
sharl
@sharl: Oh, since I missed the editing window, one self-directed fact-check – my (probably) incorrect use of the term “hipster”. Based on descriptions of such creatures, I feel like I loathe them, although I’m not sure I’ve ever even met one; I don’t travel in the right circles for that. Unfortunately, this ignorant loathing leads me to sometimes use the word in a rash manner when wishing to castigate those I find particularly irksome.
I regret this bias-driven ugliness, and promise to strive to be better in the future.
catatonia
It’s weakened somewhat. Looks like it’s gone through an eyewall replacement cycle — which means, kind of, that the outer bands strengthen, move inward, and tend to attenuate the innermost bands that make up the eyewall, which is where the strongest winds of a hurricane are. Then this “outer wall” replaces the inner wall and the storm may restrengthen … that is, if it’s in an ideal environment. Patty’s pretty close to the coast and so even though the circulation is relatively small, the mountainous terrain of that part of Mexico, which that circulation is somewhat over now, has to be affecting it. Wouldn’t be surprised that the NHC determines that Patricia was a high 4 at landfall, even though the last advisory (I think) still had her at 5. Still dangerous.
As noted, Patricia’s windfield is small, kind of like Charley in 2004 which hit the SW coast of Florida. Wind isn’t the killer with hurricanes anyway: even those storms with the most powerful winds at landfall — Andrew, Camille, Labor Day in Florida in 1935 — either did not have extravagant fatality counts (Andrew) or those that did occur were mostly from surge (the other two). Plus they made landfall where it’s flat. It’s generally hard for a storm to maintain category 5 strength when it approaches land.
The problem with Patricia is it’s going to drop copious rain in mountainous areas in its path in Mexico, and the resulting flooding/mudslides could lead to a terrible situation.
catclub
@sharl: In an alternate history, Mitt does not jump on the story both early and wrong, and the GOP noise machine does not feel obligated to back him up on his mis-step. It does not become a tarbaby for the GOP. (Something else does)
sharl
@catclub: Heh, I hope we don’t get too accustomed to such, um, knee-jerkiness on the part of the GOP. Someday – maybe not soon, but someday – they’ll smarten up, and it’s best we avoid being surprised by that moment, by not getting too complacent.
And you also remind me: the goopers made a really big thing of this Obummer-intentionally-avoided-saying-‘terror’ nonsense, even in this age of every public POTUS utterance being recorded and put on line. I mean, that nonsense went on for WEEKS. Those nerd-bros had to really be phoning it in to not even remember that (their age is no excuse; they’re not THAT young), or coming across it in a simple search. I found the CNN debunking that way, with my very first search.
Blech, nerd-bros…
Pie Happens (opiejeanne)
@Betty Cracker: How did you handle that? My mom would have been very curious and possibly hurt if I made those comments in front of her.
I can see now that there are attempts to criminalize women who have miscarriages; the idea scares me because I have daughters.
SWMBO
To those wanting to help, here’s my anecdote of disaster. When the earthquake hit Monserrate, my daughter was in Girl Scouts. Her troop had a mom that was an international flight attendant going back and forth to the region. The GS asked everyone to contribute what they could to help and the airline agreed to fly it in unused storage. We sent the usual food items and I sent 30 foot dog leads that we had. We had finished fencing the yard and didn’t need them any more so I sent them. I thought they’d use them to keep their dogs leashed (I know. First World thinking.) The FA mom came back and said that was one of the most exciting things they got. Fences were down and they were having trouble getting them repaired but they strung our leads across openings and could move on to rebuilding houses. The cattle weren’t able to get thru the leads and they were coated with red plastic so they could see if they were up and down. She told this to the group to get the girls to think outside the box. One of the dads was working for the city at the municipal complex and sent a bunch of old, ratty tennis nets. More cheap and easy fencing. We also sent old crutches that the kids no longer needed and some of the older folks donated walkers and wheelchairs. They say to send money but you can get creative and do a lot of good. Ours was a county wide girl scout organization that helped organize and ship the stuff that was outside the Red Cross and other known agencies. Ask around. There are good folks everywhere. Call the airlines or air cargo companies to see if they have any shipments that you can contribute to.