A sign the Trump campaign is getting desperate: they're shifting the conversation to — wait for it — policy. pic.twitter.com/LKMpBSXp7R
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) August 7, 2016
One year in, Paul Manafort tells @MariaBartiromo: 'The campaign is just beginning…we're at the beginning…it's a three-month campaign.'
— Byron York (@ByronYork) August 7, 2016
Campaign really begins in earnest November 8, when they whip up insurrectionary mobs claiming vote was rigged. https://t.co/KJP4rIK28s
— Jonathan Chait (@jonathanchait) August 7, 2016
The amount of "unskewing" already going on is an extraordinarily bearish indicator for Trump. https://t.co/vZS2U684x5
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 7, 2016
We need to make this a landslide for Hillary Clinton. It won’t stop the most committed/dumbest Repubs from whining about ‘rigged’ precincts, but the bigger her margin, the less believable their unskewed polls complaints.
On that topic, a performance review by Dave Weigel, at the Washington Post:
“The Trump Card,” the latest work by the monologist Mike Daisey, begins and ends with an unprintable word. After they settle into their seats, the members of Daisey’s audience are told that they are “f—ed.” (There’s an implication that we knew this already.) After two or so hours of a performance that dives and bobs from Daisey’s childhood to the legal career of Roy Cohn and the latest Donald Trump outrage, Daisey shares the moral: Democracy is imperiled when people say “f— it.” (There’s an implication that we know this, too.)
Profanity has played a role throughout Daisey’s career, but in “The Trump Card” it carries a sort of profundity. More than ever before, Daisey has a subject he can inhabit. He has been delivering movie-length monologues off a few yellow pages of notes for 15 years, and now someone is running for president using apparently the same tactic. Trump, Daisey explains, is a “performer” who befuddles journalists and intellectuals but makes perfect sense to artists. “He has a performer’s card and he is abusing the s— out of it,” Daisey says….
The format resembles most of his works, including “The Agony and the Ecstasy of Steve Jobs.” That 2011 work made Daisey famous after a large section was recorded for “This American Life.” It made him infamous after some journalistic digging revealed that incredible scenes from the monologue, of Daisey talking to slave laborers who made Apple products, were inventions based on third-party human rights reports.
Daisey has plowed ahead, but the bitter lessons of “Steve Jobs” and the “This American Life” retraction are reflected in “The Trump Card.” He mentions the scandal at one point; on Thursday night, he quickly clocked his audience to see who did and didn’t remember it. The most revelatory stuff in the new monologue is about the nature of truth and what it takes for people to throw away decorum because they think they’re being wronged. Daisey is fascinated by how Trump’s lies work and wry about how the media can’t unravel them. In what might be the most useful analogy for how “Trump has hacked the media,” Daisey compares him to the hero who outwits a fairy by throwing a handful of sand in the air. According to fairy law, the creature must count every grain before he can focus on the hero, “and by that time he’s in the next town.”…
Earl
The real question is if there isn’t any bit of the body civic that Republicans and Trump won’t shit on? If you want to kill a democracy, start convincing voters for the losing candidate that the election was rigged and they shouldn’t accept the results. Or stand by and watch your candidate do that. Where are senior republicans alongside Obama saying the elections are honest and the vote will not be rigged? Or are they all afraid of being Cantored by their own morons?
NotMax
Am finding the obsession with Trump … disturbing. Feeding the beast makes for a heftier beast.
A pro-Democratic late night/overnight piece once or twice a week would at this point be a welcome change of pace.
Brachiator
What do you mean by landslide? I keep seeing some trying to make this the new conventional wisdom. Aside from rubbing Trump’s nose in it, I don’t see what this accomplishes, especially if you are talking about racking up a big national vote total. This will not force the GOP into a come to Jesus moment.
Now, they might pay some attention if Hillary wins more states. Here huge margins don’t matter as much as does electoral vote dominance. The GOP will still be jerks, but this might force them to take notice.
one_particular_harbour, fka Botsplainer
EV dominance plus landslide numbers equals that “come to Jesus” moment in a lot of places. It peels Chamber of Commerce types away from conservatism, makes manufacturers rethink their reflexive support of conservatives. It redirects Wall Street money, too.
EV dominance alone, if based on a narrow popular vote margin, doesn’t have the same effect – the conservative spinmeisters can still make the pitch.
Brachiator
BTW, a GOP strategist named John Thomas was interviewed on a local Los Angeles radio station early Friday morning. He suggested that Trump’s failure to endorse Paul Ryan was an attempt to refocus media attention, and that the Donald would soon offer a warm endorsement. This happened, but this doesn’t make Thomas into a Nostradamus.
Thomas then made some interesting recommendations. He said that Trump should fire Paul Mandafort, because he doesn’t have the experience to direct the stretch run of the campaign. Instead, he says, Trump should hire Roger Ailes, who does have the necessary experience.
Oh please, oh please, oh please. Let this happen.
Patricia Kayden
So Manafort thinks that Americans are so weak minded that we’ll forget Trump’s odious behavior during the last year and flock to him because he will give a “major policy speech” today? Nope. It doesn’t work like that. There is no magical reset button.
Trump will continue to be his own best enemy. There is no pivot for a lying, know nothing bigot.
Brachiator
@one_particular_harbour, fka Botsplainer:
Nope. Running up the vote total in California, New York, and other states where Clinton already is doing well can contribute to a landslide, but otherwise would be pointless, as would racking up totals without flipping states.
Wall Street certainly will not care, nor will chambers of commerce or manufacturers. But you win more states, even by small margins, and you start to build mid term election possibilities.
Mai.naem.mobile
Anybody watching “Night of” on HBO? OMG, it’s a truly gripping series. I’m guessing it will win a ton of Emmys next year.
Mai.naem.mobile
I hope Nancy Pepsi and Chuck Schumer have a bunch of legislation ready to go just in case the Dems take back the House,especially fixing the Voting Rights stuff and the fixes on O-care. The judgeships on the Senate side. No wasting extended time on sausage making like was done on O-care. They have to work fast and assume they will lose the Senate or House in 2018.
Mary G
I want squeaker victories for Hillary in Arizona, Utah, and Georgia, plus win every battleground state by four points or more, plus all the blue states by 25. I want the Republican party to commit suicide by Trump.
one_particular_harbour, fka Botsplainer
@Mary G:
Yup, that would do it – and would have the bonus effect of demonstrating that conservatism as a defining philosophy in the region of the old Confederacy isn’t monolithic, so as to dampen ridiculous secession talk.
Mai.naem.mobile
I was listening to NPR the other days and they were talking to a woman who’s set up a social media site where they use artificial intelligence to monitor and disallow offensive/rude posts. The site is set up for people to have candid discussions but remain respectful. I think its called Candor or Candid. Anyhow,the reporter asked her if she was surprised by anything she had seen on her platform. She said on regular social media her personal feed(sounds like mostly Bay area people) is 80/20 Clinton/Trump and her feed on her own platform is 50/50 Clinton/Trump. I’m really worried that there is some “silent majority” bunch of Trump supporters(too embarrassed to admit they support Trump) who will show up and Trump will become POTUS.
Shalimar
@Brachiator: The important thing about running up the vote totals isn’t because Clinton will be treated any better or because Republicans will become more sane. It is about taking control of the House. I live in a very Republican part of Florida. There is no way in hell that Hillary is winning my county. The rest of the House district isn’t quite as red though. We could take the seat if she does well enough and her voters vote for the Dem House candidate. I am sure the scenario is similar in 50 other races. We don’t win this House seat if she wins Florida by 2 or 3. We might win it if she wins Florida by 10.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Mai.naem.mobile: If there’s anything I’ve noticed about Trump supporters, they’re not silent.
hellslittlestangel
@Mai.naem.mobile: You really are just a hopeless Eeyore. You’d worry about a Trump victory if your alphabet soup seemed to have more T’s than C’s in it.
hellslittlestangel
@Shalimar: Yes. At this point, the election is about the House.
OzarkHillbilly
@Mary G: Dreams I’ll never see.
OzarkHillbilly
The House is not flipping. 2010 was a disaster that we will pay for for a long time to come. We might take the Senate. Maybe even probable, but the House is a bridge too far. Admittedly, my pov is colored by the state I live in, which has become hopelessly deranged after 8 years of Obama.
Mai.naem.mobile
@hellslittlestangel: I do tend to be more pessimistic but I also work with people who 1/have stated they will vote for Trump or 2/Don’t give a sheet and won’t vote because ‘it doesn’t affect’ them. Hell,i want to see McCain beaten and beaten good. If he wins his primary his opponent will be Ann Kirkpatrick,a really good candidate. It’s good news for John McCain!
a non mouse
OK, I need to go back to bed because I read the line as “Disney’s audience is f–cked.”
hellslittlestangel
To me, that is Democratic complacency.
rikyrah
@Mai.naem.mobile:
ICAM.
Central Planning
@Brachiator: Isn’t “John Thomas” slang for penis? How appropriate.
Central Planning
Dangit. I didn’t realize p3nis was still a moderation-inducing word.
In case it doesn’t get unmoderated:
@Brachiator: Isn’t “John Thomas” slang for p3nis? How appropriate.
shomi
These intricate overanalyzations of a small fingered circus clown/carnival barker are hilarious. Like he is some kind of idiot savant.
chopper
@Earl:
there are none. this is one area where trump’s campaign fits right in with GOP orthodoxy – Democratic governance is inherently illegitimate. if a dem is in the WH, he/she got there by cheating. yeah, pushing the “rigged election” shtick is pretty dangerous but compared to trump’s other garbage it’s pretty much republican mainstream thinking.
philadelphialawyer
@shomi: Totally agree. I don’t need some performance artist who is himself apparently somewhat dishonest to “explain” Trump to me. And there is nothing particularly clever about what Trump has done for the last year. He lies, he insults, he is a racist, sexist, ableist, anti intellectual, bigoted moron. He has gotten as far as he has not because of anything “post modern” about his schtick but because many, if not most, of the GOP primary electorate are also racist, sexist, etc, morons who like insults and believe lies, because the media sucked his dick, first due to his being good copy and then due to his being successful, which requires, under the media’s awful paradigm, that his disgusting horseshit be given the “both siderism” treatment, and because the rest of the GOP could not unite behind one, single other candidate.
Brachiator
@Shalimar:
The way Congressional districts are drawn, running up vote totals will not necessarily result in House gains.
I appreciate the enthusiasm in wishing for a landslide victory, but people are misjudging the potential impact of a big vote.
Also, incumbents have the advantage in down ticket races. A landslide for Hillary will not necessarily sweep other candidates into the House and Senate.
NoraLenderbee
The benefit of a Clinton landslide is that it will force a few people to shut up for at least a few minutes. I’m so tired of hearing (on other forums) about how she can’t possibly win 50% and therefore she should be driven from office, stoned, and buried at a crossroads with a stake through her heart.
JustRuss
Pardon my pedantry, but when did clocked become a synonym for surveyed? Yes , it can serve as a substitute for measured, but not in this context. I hate what morons are doing to my language.
r€nato
A Clinton EV landslide leads to movement conservatives hooting that once again, the GOP did not run a “true conservative” (and they are half-right about that). It tees up Cruz for 2020. In a very similar way to how conservatives suddenly discovered in Sept. 2008 that GW Bush was no fiscal conservative, many Trump fans will discover that Trump really was not any sort of conservative.
Whether the universally-despised Cruz can cash in on that sentiment is another thing entirely.
A relatively close EV victory for Hillary leaves the GOP in a quandary: could Trumpism succeed with a disciplined candidate? I would expect at least one of the 2012 contenders to try this approach in this outcome.
Either result is excellent for Democrats AFAIAC.
Unless Baby Jeebus really does bring us a unicorn this fall, taking the House is out of the question. For that, Democrats really need to break the grip that the GOP has on state legislatures and their ability to draw congressional district boundaries. Besides the obvious approach of generous funding and GOTV efforts, independent redistricting commissions have shown positive results in leveling the playing field. 100% of Arizona’s statewide offices are in GOP hands; however its Congressional delegation has been nearly evenly split since its redistricting commission (bitterly fought against by the state GOP) began drawing districts. It was 5-4 Dem in the 113th Congress (2013-15), and 4-5 in the current Congress (2015-17).