WSJ asked 45 former White House economists for their views on Trump and Clinton. Results: https://t.co/nqf8DUgPud? pic.twitter.com/nmmAE9jBqO
— WSJ Think Tank (@WSJThinkTank) September 18, 2016
Thing about Presidential Candidate Donald J. Trump: He has not made himself popular with quite a few people who would normally be voting Republican. That’s the Wall Street Journal, pointing out how many serious money guys would rather vote for a woman Demon-crat than Deadbeat Donnie! Not to mention, former Republican Presidents of sterling pedigree…
Ah. GHWB told *a group of 40 people* that he will vote for Clinton. https://t.co/JyS3WAqSft
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) September 20, 2016
Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders and Republican President George H.W. Bush are voting for @HillaryClinton.
What else do we need to know?
— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) September 20, 2016
So how the ever-loving hell is “Trump confidante” and former Nixon ratfvcker Roger Stone hoping to improve his guy’s standings with public comments like this?
Trump confidante refers to former President George H W Bush as "CIA Drug Trafficker" https://t.co/9wogf8dW0c
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) September 21, 2016
CIA Drug Trafficker George H. W. Bush will vote for @HillaryCinton.
He ran drugs will Hillary’s hubby#MENA @BushCrimes pic.twitter.com/WcohJGSQXg— Roger Stone (@RogerJStoneJr) September 21, 2016
Is this another indicator of the Trump campaign’s mooted “FML, we’re only getting votes from the neo-Nazis and Alex Jones late-night listeners, so we might as well go full tinfoil hat”? Because I can’t imagine many of those much-sought-after college-educated suburban white women voters thinking, Well, I always thought of Poppy Bush as a nice old gentleman, but now that his criminal past has been exposed…
Aaaand here comes official campaign manager, KellyAnne Conway!
“I respect the 92-year-old-former president very much… that’s his right” @KellyannePolls on HW backing HRC https://t.co/qdJVGuOtZP
— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) September 21, 2016
If there's one thing that'd piss Dubya off enough to publicly chuck grenades at Trump, it's if Trump goes after… https://t.co/fzweoJch5m
— Zeddonymous (@ZeddRebel) September 21, 2016
Gosh, she said, it’s a good thing for Trump that the Bush family doesn’t hold grudges!
magurakurin
Yet, here we are. A close race. sad. very sad. Nate Silver has it at 56% chance win for Clinton. But, Nate is playing around with the numbers this year I think. Sam Wang is showing the tightening as well, though. It’s down to 81% win Clinton. I still believe Clinton will win, but this election has shown just how many shitty, bad, dumb people there are in America.
NotMax
Home again, home again, jiggedy jig.
NotMax’s big fat New York adventure (2016 edition) now in the history books after being extended one additional day due to cancellation by airline of flight on Monday. 17 hours from stepping out of Mom’s front door to entering my own.
Mostly offline and news-free for twelve days; nothing much seems to have changed.
Botsplainer
Interesting dynamic. In 2012, you had zero in the way of public defections of GOP pols from Romney, and it wasn’t close. In this election, you have an open civil war within the GOP and the polling is closer.
I’m wondering if the absence of landlines and numbers of mobile users who blow off calls has reached such a tipping point that poll numbers are mostly noise.
SenyorDave
@Botsplainer: I’m wondering if the absence of landlines and numbers of mobile users who blow off calls has reached such a tipping point that poll numbers are mostly noise.
The top polls, especially Reuters and WaPo will include a cell only portion. Its much more expensive, but it provides better coverage and you don’t have to do as much weighting. Some polls should be taken with a grain of salt. For example, Emerson College polls only do landline, then attempt to correct by heavily weighting the data.
Not to sound too trite, but GOTV will probably decode election. If showing that Trump is stealing his own charities money doesn’t move the needle with is supporters, nothing will.
Mobil RoonieRoo
Insomnia sucks. Plus this bloody election has made me have to start wearing my mouth guard again.
Anne Laurie
@NotMax:
Okaeri! You were missed — people in the late-night crowd have been asking why you weren’t sharing here!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Botsplainer: I don’t answer numbers on my phone I don’t recognize, so I’m not being polled.
greennotGreen
I’m on “the evil Dex” as Kevin Drum calls it, but I think it’s great because it counteracts the worst side effects of chemo for three days, after which they have begun to subside. And you can get your house clean. Anyway, that explains why I’m up.
I get maybe 2-3 phone calls a a day labeled “unavailable” or “restricted”. I never answer them, and I haven’t been polled this election cycle. I am beginning to feel a little calmer since I think a lot of people are just now starting to pay attention. Trump has been sucking* all the coverage oxygen out of the room, but the debates will change some of that, and an indictment or two or even pending indictment re: Trump U. or Trump foundation may prove that all publicity isn’t good publicity. Plus, I think we Dems are really motivated to GOTV this year.
* Yes, I could have ended that sentence there.
greennotGreen
Since this is an open thread, I’d like to point out that our local Nashville area alternative paper published a response to the Lea Hudson op-Ed that Cole so righteously ranted about. It’s here.
MattF
@Botsplainer: I think we’re all trained now not to answer the phone any more. Sucks to be a pollster.
But the death of phone polling reinforces the point that only meta-analysis gives results that are even arguably valid.
eclare
@MattF: I only have a cell phone, and if I don’t recognize the number, I don’t answer.
Balconesfault
It is worth pondering if being opposed by former GOP White House economists is in and of itself a bad thing, considering their record over the last 5 GOP administrations.
That statistic (the Trump unfavorable ranking by wrecking balls like Laffer and Mankiw) might actually be the most favorable endorsement for Trump I’ve ever seen.
qwerty42
@Botsplainer: … I’m wondering if the absence of landlines and numbers of mobile users who blow off calls has reached such a tipping point that poll numbers are mostly noise.
Just back from myself (Wisconsin, Great Lakes), during which I kept away from news. But did answer a poll going through here (looks like GA won’t be a battleground, drat, but polling is continuing).
bemused
@magurakurin:
I would add willfully, proudly ignorant people who want to believe any batshit rumor or conspiracy theory that comes along and people who just want to stick it to liberals, the educated, any group that they knee jerk feel is lecturing to and looking down upon them (almost any group not of their insulated sphere) while believing that the undeserving are stealing government assistance that rightfully all belongs to them. A bitter basket of boneheads.
Cermet
@magurakurin: Or, what most whites in amerika exactly are – racist, morons who would throw out all our freedoms. rights and beliefs as long as they have Nig- ‘chang’ to keep down. The exact same amerikans that supported the south in 1860’s. The more things change, the one thing we can count on – whites in amerika will try and pretend they aren’t racist until blacks get a chance. I will say that in the Northeast, (excluding much of New England), many whites aren’t into that bull shit.
Lurking Canadian
@Botsplainer: That’s where I am too. Who are these Trump voters that are going to help him do better than Romney? He’s not going to get more votes from Black people or Latinos. I can’t see him getting more votes from women or youth. So who is left?
The only way the polls are in any way meaningful is if they are showing a MASSIVE number of angry old white men who normally don’t vote.
I don’t want to be the UNSKEW guy, but …
Kenneth Kohl
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Same here.If my wife and I don’t recognize caller number, we don’t answer…
Keith P.
Economists are probably freaking out over the idea of a guy running the economy who doesn’t understand the difference between microeconomics and macroeconomics.
Joel
@Botsplainer: Polling’s generally gotten better, not worse, at least from 2004-present.
The relevant point is that 2012 and 2008 also had points where the (R) candidate narrowed the gap and/or was leading.
Emily68
I don’t usually answer the phone either, but the answering machine broke and so now I do once in a while. I actually got polled! It was a robo-poll–push 1 for Jay Inslee, push 2 for the other guy, etc. for state-wide candidates in Washington state. It also asked how old I was. I imagine that’s so they can unskew the poll themselves.
We have a weekend home, too, with a landline and we almost always answer that phone. We got polled there, too, but my husband just hung up because it was some sort of scam.
Ruckus
@Botsplainer:
I think it’s very possible. I did phone banking for Clinton about 3 weeks ago and no one was getting much response. What we were getting was mostly good but not all. But the actual response rate was around 10% (off the top of my head) We had cell and home numbers. As a side note the 40ish guy sitting next to me was a republican and the 50ish woman on the other side said she hadn’t voted in years, both said we had to stop Trump.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Botsplainer: Were the polls less close at this point in the race in 2012? I thought at one point the polls had RMoney up by a few percentage points in 2012. Trump has barely pulled even at his best this year. The scary thing about Trump is that nobody who knows anything about anything can influence his voters. Former Republican President comes out against him…we don’t care. All the former Economic Advisors of all the past Presidents come out against him…we don’t care. They are know nothings and they don’t want to be told anything by anyone who knows something. They’d rather be conned by Donald Trump.
cat
Conway translated:
Bush41 is senile. Don’t forget he’s a loser who didn’t win his second term as POTUS. His son is a loser too. Stop reporting what people really think of Trump or he’ll have a metldown.
gwangung
@Joel:
The behavioral trend seems to be that Rs tend to come home early, Ds come home closer to election day.
sukabi
@Botsplainer: other explanation is polls are over sampling white men, which has been pointed out in at least one outfits “revised methodology”.
1,000 Flouncing Lurkers (was fidelioscabinet)
@greennotGreen: Betsy Phillips can be relied upon to have her moral compass in working order.
EBT
Nthing the gen X/Y crowd that doesn’t answer unknown phone numbers. Or the known ones.