Go and do the same.
It is raining here, and the cats are annoyed that they can’t have their outside time. They are adjusting now into chasing each other around the house.
Open thread.
This post is in: America, Election 2018, Open Threads, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome
Go and do the same.
It is raining here, and the cats are annoyed that they can’t have their outside time. They are adjusting now into chasing each other around the house.
Open thread.
Comments are closed.
Mary G
My ballot has been mailed in. I checked online and they haven’t logged it in yet, but it’s nice to know I can.
Bruuuuce
Would that I could. NY State has neither early voting nor absentee ballots by voter choice. I cannot wait for November 6.
Jerzy Russian
I will drop off my ballot this morning.
Still in bed wondering which of the many important upcoming tasks should be put off first, other than the task involving the ballot.
Spanky
Can’t! Early voting in MD doesn’t start until Thursday.
frosty
Pennsyltucky doesn’t do early voting. Probably because they want us to use the hackable machines with no paper trail.
Thoughtful David
I already voted too. Three weeks ago.
schrodingers_cat
Photos, or it didn’t happen.
Mnemosyne
I would tell you to take the cats outside anyway (in your raincoat), but they would only blame you for dropping water on them because you control the weather as far as they’re concerned. ?
I’m still debating early voting. It’s slightly easier in CA than it used to be, but still kind of a pain in the ass. Basically, you go to a center and fill out an absentee ballot on the spot rather than a normal Inkavote (Scantron) ballot.
guachi
I had my California ballot emailed to me because … technology!
However, the actual ballot pages are 8.5×14 inches and I only have 8.5×11 paper. Now I don’t know if I can shrink the ballot to fit an 8.5×11 inch sheet of paper and mail that in.
So know I have to call them. Stupid technology!
SiubhanDuinne
Nice and timely. I’m heading out in about ten minutes to vote (in the notorious Gwinnett County in the notorious state of Georgia). After that, a couple of hours of phone banking for Carolyn Bourdeaux, my congressional candidate. And sometime in all that, I’ll be streaming live coverage of the debate between Carolyn and the incumbent R member.
zhena gogolia
We don’t have early voting. Just as well. I like voting on Election Day. I am so traumatized by Nov 2016, I have no hope for this election. But I’ll vote. And I’m throwing money around like a drunken sailor (just as I did in 2016).
Cheryl Rofer
@Mnemosyne: The cats have already blamed me. I opened the outer door and left the screen door in place so they could see how undesirable it was outside. They said “Well, just shut it off.” Silly human.
Thoughtful David
My latest idea for a small thing I want a Democratic congress to do is pass a law naming Neil Gorsuch’s seat on the SC as the “Merrick Garland Associate Justice Chair.” Kind of the way universities name professorships.
I want that to be the official title of his seat, so that his letterhead reads “Merrick Garland Associate Justice Neil Gorsuch” and whenever he’s introduced in public people have to say “introducing the Merrick Garland Associate Justice Neil Gorsuch.” And in history books he’s always referred to that way.
It can never be forgotten how he got there.
tobie
I sent in my absentee ballot last week in MD so I could work GOTV every day of early voting and on election day. Eyes on the prize folks. Getting our voters to the polls is everything.
kindness
I vote election day. The poll is about 200 yards from my house. No, I prefer doing it the old fashioned way.
eclare
Voted this past Saturday in Memphis. Workers there said not many people voted on Saturday, but it is a downtown-ish location, and the workers said that during the week it was pretty busy.
Major Major Major Major
I haven’t voted yet because my ballot is a (commie) centimeter thick and ain’t nobody got time for that until after the movers come.
mad citizen
@Thoughtful David: Great idea! I’m in for this. Also am planning to vote later today at my county seat. Off work today (‘cept still working on conference calls and doing other work–guess I’m just working from home) but doing some work traveling tomorrow to Friday down in Beto-land.
Scout211
I sent in my vote-by-mail ballot last week (California). I checked this morning and it was received and counted. :)
catclub
@mad citizen: when you are able to get that, you will also be able to label Kavanaugh’s the ‘Rapist Political Hack’ Associate Justice chair. iow, it will never happen.
MazeDancer
@Bruuuuce:
The only good news about NY State’s 19th Century voting laws is that it gives extra days to write PostCards for Antonio Delgado.
Don’t have to be mailed til Oct 30th. If you live in NY State can push that to Nov 1.
Get addresses: PostCardPatriots.com
Jackie
I dropped my ballot off at the local auditor’s office just now. We (WA) have free postage for our ballots, but I worry about it getting “lost in the mail”??♀️
ljt
Will be out of town (actually at the Grand Canyon!) on the day, so mailing my absentee ballot today.
SiubhanDuinne
Just saw a FTFNYT headline/subhed which proclaimed: Many of the most competitive House races are exceptionally close. Um, isn’t that kind of the definition of “most competitive”?
BlueGirlFromWyo
Voted Saturday. Brought hubby with me. Both of us voted how the county democratic committee told us to.
Now working on my student godkid and seriously pissed off at the right BFs to early vote.
JMG
I was going to vote this morning until I went to remove the window air conditioner from our bedroom and saw the gigantic wasp’s nest that now lies on top of it. So I’m waiting for the exterminator. He’s due by 1, so if possible I will vote this afternoon. Early voting closes for the day at 4:30.
burnspbesq
The OC Registrar of Voters HQ is the most convenient spot for me to early vote. On the way to work.
There are pop up early voting sites at UCI and Cal State Fullerton, which is a pretty cool thing for the Registrar to do.
Despite its well-deserved reputation for right-wing crackpottery, on an administrative level OC has always functioned pretty well.
Dorothy A. Winsor
I’m back from rehab. As soon as I finish my coffee, Mr DAW and I are off to vote.
My neighbors are mostly old Rs. They’ll vote come hell or high water
retiredeng
Here in Massachusetts. Last night we got a robo-call from our mayor (oddly enough, from a caller ID several towns over) to get out and vote. The kicker was a tag line to re-elect Charlie Baker!
I wish I could have left a comment along the lines of: “I might just maybe vote for Baker if he changes his party to Independent or wasn’t a buddy of Chris Christie or …., maybe. But I will never vote for a Republican – ever. That party got stink all over it now.”
Chances are Baker will win anyway though.
burnspbesq
@guachi:
Or you could buy a package of legal size paper.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
My ballot was mailed in and received last week. I’m glad I got it over with but now I’m anxious to know the final results on Nov 6th.
I voted for Ohio’s Issue One about reducing drug sentences as well as probate reform. Don’t know if it will pass but I hope so. Voted a full Dem ticket and was only somewhat confused on local judges until I did some research on them.
LAO
Holy crap, when did we get a grammar button? Or spell check, whatever the heck it is?
eric
How early voting matters: there is no straight forward way to know if an early voter is someone that would not otherwise have voted, so it is unclear how to read early voter numbers. It does, however, change the calculus for GOTV operations and makes more of the limited resources available to get fence-sitting voters to the polls to actually cast a vote.
ChrisS
Ballot completed and ready for mailing today.
A democrat has at least 1 vote to unseat a repub in a swingy-district.
RollSound
Done and done. Will be a poll worker on election day.
dmsilev
Mailed mine in over the weekend. Now, if only that would stop the incessant stream of mailers….
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Major Major Major Major:
A Cali ballot, right? I’ve heard those this year are doorstoppers.
schrodingers_cat
@SiubhanDuinne: Pravda on the Hudson is the official party newspaper.
donnah
My husband and I will vote early this Saturday. We’re Ohioans and we’ll both request a paper ballot to fill out. And we favor Issue One as well, because it makes sense to spend money on drug rehab and preventing addiction than it does to build bigger (privatized) prisons.
My oldest son has canvassed locally and my husband and son will be out this weekend. We’re 100% on a Democratic ticket and we’re making sure our widowed moms will get them to the polls, too.
AliceBlue
Mr. Aliceblue and I voted in Georgia last Thursday. Go Stacey Abrams!
Kenneth Kohl
@kindness: Same here. Afer my wife and I vote, we go out for breakfast – make a morning of the activity.
VeniceRiley
mailed my ballot last night. Thanks to the super helpful conservatives that told me which judges to vote against!
Josie
Just got home from early voting in suburban precinct in central Texas. I have always early voted and never had to wait in line. Today there were around 50 people in line ahead of me. It took me 1 1/2 hours to vote and things were getting worse by the time I left. Everyone was quite cheerful and it all went smoothly. The numbers were just kind of surprising.
ETA: Go Beto!
Kraux Pas
@retiredeng: There’s always a chance for surprises. Three times more people voted for Gonzalez than Baker in the primaries, though I know a lot more people vote in the general.
I hope I don’t have to worry about Warren’s Senate seat. I know signs don’t vote and the polls look good, but in my neck of the state it’s just Diehl…Diehl for Senate signs as far as the eye can see.
ETA: But on the plus side I got my boyfriend registered to vote and we have majority Dem votes in my house for the first time ever.
jeffreyw
We will wait for the regular day because I just love going to our official township polling place. They always have brownies and cookies.
ccl
^ This
Butter Emails!!!
@Kraux Pas: I know I have said this before, but Baker is the poster child for how low the bar is for Republican politicians. There’s nothing about him that justifies his level of popularity, just that being a Republican and not being a complete jackass is all that is required for broad support.
zhena gogolia
@jeffreyw:
That is so cute!
Mine used to be the firehouse right down the street with cute firefighters hanging around. I loved it. For some reason they changed it so now I have to drive farther, to the high school gym, and the atmosphere leaves a lot to be desired.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
Meanwhile, the gasbag from Vermont:
The Moar You Know
@VeniceRiley: Massive kudos to you for posting that. Getting info on the judge races has always been like pulling teeth in this state, so I’ve always voted “no”, the idea (a not unreasonable one) being that they were put in by Republicans. That’s no longer the case, so gotta be careful. That site made it REALLY easy. Anyone they hate, I’m voting for. Anyone they love, I’m voting “no”.
Kraux Pas
@Butter Emails!!!:
He exists as a totem that you can be a Republican and not screw over working people 100% all the time and, to the extent you do screw over average people, do it without blaming minorities. The thinking is he must be preserved as an endangered species.
ETA: He still only has one thing he does well though, the same thing any R does well, get in front of the camera and get lauded for how they’re saving you from the Ds without being questioned about his claims.
Bruce K
@Bruuuuce: Huh – I’ve been getting NYS absentee ballots for a decade now. That’s how I voted for PBO both times. (Of course, maybe that’s because I’ve been living in Europe for the last ten years.)
In any case, my ballot got sent in at the beginning of October, so the only way to stop me from voting is to use a time machine. Granted, I wouldn’t put it past the 21st-century GOP to try that, given that they’re trying to roll back the clock to the Gilded Age and the times of Jim Crow…
JPL
@AliceBlue: Stacey will have four more votes by the end of the week. One son lives in DeKalb cty. and the DIL, son and I live in Fulton. The Fulton cty crew plans on voting Saturday morning then having breakfast together. We’ve been voting early together for awhile now.
VeniceRiley
@The Moar You Know:
I KNOW! I found it by accident while googling. Super helpful has every county – coverage statewide! judgevoterguide.com for those who haven’t voted yet.
JPL
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: Since EFG isn’t here, let me say FUCKEM
J R in WV
@kindness:
We vote on election day at our local polling place. One of the guys is 85 now, and we learned last May on Primary election day that he has fallen and broke both hips. So he was there, with two canes, walking around doing polling duty work. A nice guy, with lots of local “kei
So when we vote we get to visit briefly with people we see twice each election season.
When we have to wait, we get to sit on the bleacher seats in the gym, and slide along as people get up to walk to a voting booth. Longest was probably 2012, maybe 20 or 30 minutes. Mostly just sign in and wait to be escorted to the machine, which do all have paper trails printed out behind a clear window, so you can see your votes being cast for the person you picked.
Thoughtful David
@catclub:
Geez, you’re a wet blanket.
I also want Congress to officially name the national debt the “Ronald Reagan National Debt.” He is, after all, the president who increased it by the greatest percentage and is responsible for a huge amount it. He deserves to get credit for it.
Shana
While I usually vote in person on Election Day since I’m outside handing out sample ballots most of the day anyway, I’m voting absentee-in-person today since I head to Cincinnati to see my MIL for perhaps the last time tomorrow morning.. Hubby’s there now and we’re planning to come home on Saturday, but you never know so I’m playing it safe.
Question for California voters: I keep hearing you all talk about how thick the ballot is with all the referendums and ballot measures of one sort or another, but I don’t recall ever hearing about long lines on Election Days. Do voters usually get sample ballots outside that indicate party preferences and people just vote that way quickly or is it usually slow so we don’t hear about it because it’s just the way things are in California?
Michael Cain
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: My Colorado ballot this year had one federal office, seven state offices, six county offices, 13 judge retention questions at various levels, 13 state referendums/initiatives, and five local referendums/initiatives. Thank goodness we’re a vote-by-mail state.
dexwood
We voted Saturday. Yay Deb Haaland. After, following O Felix Culpa’s lead, we celebrated with green chile cheeseburgers and good, local beers. Then, Mrs. dexwood, slightly buzzed on stout, decided it was a perfect time to buy a new sewing machine. I bought socks. Yeah, we’re wild!
Immannetize
@Josie: The way that Beto can win is if he can cut a into the votes counts in Dallas and the Republican suburbs. He doesn’t need to win them, just reduce the margin of loss by about 10%. I think it is doable, almost.
Ben Cisco
Absentee ballot has been sent in. It’s my final ballot in NC, as I make my move official in mid-November.
PST
I just voted 15 minutes ago and I have the wristband to prove it. I think Cook County, despite its historic reputation, has exceptionallly clean, transparent elections. The officials are courteous and make it easy. I never wait. And you get to inspect a written ballot with your choices before committing.
guachi
@burnspbesq:
I could. But that’s expense for paper I’d use only four sheets of. If I have to, I think I can print legal size paper at Fed-Ex/Kinko’s.
Jay C
@Bruuuuce:
Actually, NYS does have absentee ballots: I know, because Mrs. Jay and I have already filled ours out and mailed them (they came late last week).
The system here IS sub-optimal, though: you have to apply for an absentee ballot. I just did ours when we moved recently: the Mrs. can’t get out to vote – and unless you specify a “permanent” application (as, sadly does Mrs. Jay, as she is partially disabled) you have to go through the application for each election (including the plethora of primaries).
PITA.
VeniceRiley
@Shana: Voter guide is 11 pages, including party prefs, candidate statements, voting info, and practice ballot. If you take the filled out practice ballot into the voting booth with you, it makes for a fast experience. But I vote by mail.
germy
Kelly
We’ll drop our ballots of at the library the next time we go into town, today or tomorrow. This morning I am a kitten gym. Currently teaching 12 week old kitten Phoebe she should not walk on the keyboard as she climbs all over me.
geg6
@Bruuuuce:
Same here in PA. Pisses me off.
retiredeng
@Kraux Pas: There are lots of pockets of wing nuts in MA. But the Senate is statewide and there are more Dems here. If they all vote that is. I hope MA doesn’t sit this one out. We’ll see.
Shana
@VeniceRiley: Thanks for the clarification.
Brachiator
I think I have finally figured out how I want to vote for the various ballot propositions on the California ballot. I pretty much knew how I wanted to vote for the statewide offices, so that was no problem. Now I have to decide whether I want to do a deep dive into some of the judges, or just go by the endorsements of a couple of the local newspapers I read.
I don’t vote by mail, because sometimes I don’t have time to pay attention to the ballot until close to election day. But this time, I may be able to use one of the early vote locations.
ETA: Just saw the reference for the judge voter info. I will take a look.
Tracy Ratcliff
Voted in Ohio last Friday. For the first time I’ve noticed, the state Dem party sent a sample ballot so that made picking the judges easy.
sheila in nc
I voted yesterday at one of our county’s convenient early voting sites. Then I headed outside to hand out sample ballots, right when Mr-in-nc showed up to cast his vote.
Totally second what people have said here about the benefits of voting early. Not only do you permit the local party to ensure that their GOTV resources are being effectively targeted, but you also reduce voting times for everyone who does vote on Election Day. And while you may never have encountered wait times at your precinct in past midterms, all indications are that turnout this year will blow past midterms out of the water. Every vote cast now reduces by a tiny percentage the risk that a less-committed voter will see a line at his/her precinct on Nov 6 and decide they can’t or won’t wait in it.
If you really like the social occasion of voting — you can still show up on election day and hand out information! Just don’t take up a spot in the voting line!
Origuy
@Shana: We get sample ballots mailed to us. They are different for each precinct, I think. It isn’t just the ballot measures; there are elementary school, secondary school, and community college boards, water districts, judges, and I don’t know what all.
retiredeng
@Kraux Pas: Based on the ads I see on TV the GOP is nervous about Baker’s chances this time.
Crashman06
@retiredeng: I’m a bit surprised by the number of Diehl signs I’ve seen out and about in my MA town, which I had thought was pretty solidly blue…
Also, I’ve gotten at least one “No one Question 1” mailer every day for the last week, which is strongly making me lean towards voting Yes.
Gelfling 545
@SiubhanDuinne: When you’ve run out of things to say but you still need write about the election you can take refuge in “close races are close”.
Steeplejack
No early voting in Virginia unless you can’t be present on Election Day, so it’s November 6 for me. My polling place is in a cheery (not joking) elementary-school gym, and when I go (usually midmorning) there’s never much of a wait.
It’s a mixed area, lots of Latinos and Muslims, pretty much a Democratic stronghold—deep blue Fairfax County—but there are some upscale neighborhoods nearby that no doubt harbor some Republicans.
All my friends and acquaintances are fired up and ready to go. Bro’ Man is taking off work the Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday around Election Day, and Sighthound Hall is going to be Ground Zero for election returns. Lots of cooking, baking, eating and drinking, hopefully in celebration of the blue wave.
In a parallel universe my brother, a well-to-do doctor, could possibly be a Republican, but as a gay man married to another gay man (a foreigner!) and with two adopted kids, one of them mixed-race, he knows exactly what is at stake. He has stated repeatedly that he would have none of that if Obama hadn’t been elected president, and he knows how quickly things could regress if the Rethuglicans gain ground.
Kraux Pas
@retiredeng: Well, I’ll do what I can. The campaign for the D challenger to my local R rep reached out to me yesterday about voting and potentially volunteering. I’m committing to volunteer as we speak.
Juju
I’m voting today after work. In my part of NC the early voting polls stay open until 7:00pm. No on all the amendments and I have my list of judicial nominees, otherwise it’s straight democratic ticket. Too bad the state legislature took that option off the voting ballot.
Middlelee
@guachi:
Mine came with a return envelope, paid postage.
Scout211
@Shana:
I don’t know the exact percentage, but you can vote by mail here in California. Many, many people do. And many counties (mine included) prefer that you vote by mail, which is the default when you register here. The ballots were sent to us last week so most of us get to vote at home. The long list of propositions is much easier to navigate with the internet and other forms of information at our fingertips.
There may be long lines at certain precincts around California, but none close to where I live.
Brachiator
For California voters, there is a cool site that can let you look up information about the candidates and propositions, find your ballot and let you create a sample ballot with your choices.
http://elections.laist.com/props/
afanasia
@Cheryl Rofer: My most beloved cat used to look out the front door at the rain, and then walk to the back door and insist that. someone open it for her so she could see if there was nice weather in back of the house. She never gave up hope of miracle.
Kraux Pas
During the part of the Governor’s debate I watched, I noticed almost no mentions of how he’s be a check on the overwhelmingly D legislature. That argument is probably a casualty of the way he’s basically been governing by letting the leg take the lead and occasionally grabbing for a headline.
Barbara
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: I don’t mind him saying this. “Only a few votes” is code for “and your decision to vote or not might be the deciding factor.” So as annoying as he can be, this particular statement doesn’t bother me.
I have not decided whether to vote this weekend. Virginia has early absentee and they make you provide a reason for voting absentee. I am sure many people fudge, but the polling location is a five minute walk from my house so if I am in town I don’t really have a problem getting there. If I have anything personal planned for that day, I check the “personal business outside the county” box on the early absentee.
retiredeng
@Crashman06: I’m certain that the right vote on question #1 is YES. Too many ads and flyers trying to scare folks. If you read it carefully you can see that it has to be a considered application if it wins. Meaning that the downside should be minimized in the final rule.
Gelfling 545
@Bruce K: In NY you have to be physically absent from the precinct on election day or incapacitated to get a mail in ballot.
WaterGirl
I voted the Monday after the final Kavalaugh vote that Saturday.
I felt like I needed to do something positive that day. I also brought treats to the woman at my hair salon (not my stylist) who stepped up and picked up my tax return (3 storefronts down from the salon) and drove it to my house since I couldn’t drive and couldn’t find a ride. I figured maybe I could make that terrible day better for someone else.
Joe Falco
Voted for Stacey Abrams last Friday with my wife. Here’s hoping we get a two-fer that both Stacey and Tabitha Johnson-Green will win their races. Kick both Brian Kemp and Pastor Hice out of office!
Crashman06
@retiredeng: Yeah, I think that’s my current thought process. Seems like there’s way too much money behind the No side and it’s making me suspicious. Plus, might as well vote Yes and give a little more power and flexibility to actual working people.
retiredeng
@Kraux Pas: Well, Dems here are notoriously corrupt. After all, three House Speakers were hounded out or outright thrown in jail for abusing power.
Miss Bianca
I am still pondering ballot issues for my state. And thinking about doing some judge research.
cope
Since this is an open thread, I am surprised nobody has brought up the fuckity fuckity fuck fuck news about Sandra D O’Connor.
As for voting, I turned in our mail-in ballots at our polling place yesterday, the first day of early voting here in the Mildew State.
the Conster
@Kraux Pas:
I’ll be voting for Gonzalez, and Warren. The canvasser for Warren outside of So. Station got yelled at by a middle aged white guy who told him “we’re working people here!”, like that was supposed to mean something. I don’t know about her. I think it’s going to be closer than the polls say. ALSO I’M GOING TO GAME ONE TONIGHT! GO SOX!!!
Dorothy A. Winsor
I voted.
Short line ahead of us. A couple registering on the spot.
Crashman06
@the Conster: I think she’ll pull it out, but yeah, I think it’ll be closer than the polls suggest.
retiredeng
@the Conster: I have a friend that’s one of those in-your-face liberals. I was with him once when some guy was collecting signatures to get someone on the primary ballot. He said “Democratic or Republican?” – The answer was GOP, so he said emphatically, “No way!”
?BillinGlendaleCA
@the Conster: God wears Dodger Blue.
psycholinguist
Early voted in East TN today. Local paper reported that early voting is up 440% over last midterms. Nothing but old people in line, I’m 50 and felt like a kid. I think the male ratio in a line of about 40 people was 20% at best, so I’m curios how this is going to turn out. The optimistic side of me says there were a lot of grandma’s thinking about their daughters and granddaughters and what that odious orange piece of shit has to say about women.
The Moar You Know
@cope: I’ll weigh in. Good riddance to the woman who made it OK for the GOP to use the Supreme Court to throw elections.
Without Bush v. Gore and the results thereof, we’d be living in a much better world. She can die with that on her conscience.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@The Moar You Know: A version of that was my reaction too.
catclub
@Gelfling 545:
there is still a curious mix of states that do not have early voting, and limit absentee ballots. When NY and Mississippi are together on the same list, I always wonder why.
HeleninEire
@Bruce K: How do you get an absentee ballot sent to Europe I’d you don’t live in NY State? And did they actually send it to Europe?
Patricia Kayden
@Spanky: Funny thing is that I’ve seen only one Ben Jealous tv ad. Still going to vote for him but he has run a very scarce campaign.
Kraux Pas
@the Conster:
It is. Let me whirl up the old Wingnut translator…
@retiredeng:
I support it. All indications are that a similar law worked in CA. Plus I think the opposition can basically be boiled down to “anything that takes money away from executives and into the hands of workers is necessarily bad.” Even my Trumpy parents are supporting it. (My mom’s a nurse)
Any time I see a No on 1 sign, I just think to myself “well, that must be where an hospital administrator lives.”
Butter Emails!!!
@Crashman06:
I suspect the polls will be largely correct and she’ll probably win by about 20%, but that’s a lot closer than it should be.
It’s also yes on all 3 ballot measures for me.
schrodingers_cat
Are Massholes voting yes on all three ballot issues?
Crashman06
@Butter Emails!!!: I hope Question 3 goes Yes by a huge margin. I saw a No on 3 ad on Facebook the other day and it was the worst, most fear-mongering piece of lying garbage that I’ve ever seen. Made me sick. Predictably, the comments were a total sewer, and reminded me why I should never log into Facebook anymore.
TomatoQueen
Before arthritis stole both of my hips, I used to adore the whole Election Day process: get up at stupid o’clock, stand in the early November fog with other stalwarts, give the little Election Doggie, a Shih-Tzu with a red white and blue bow, a scratch, then slowly saunter through the little elementary school off Taney Avenue (yeah, that one) to the gym, cha-cha around with the poll workers until, at last, the sacred poll booth and its monumentally stupid and toy-like voting gadget, exceeded in sophistication by a kazoo, perhaps. And then ding!, sticker, and off to work as it’s Tuesday. These days, it’s different: Election Doggie has crossed the Bridge, the polling place is the rec center complete with smelly pool, and even with a walker I can’t manage the standing. So another Absentee Ballot it is, and as the mail in Alexandria is slower than a slow thing on National Slowness Day, I shall have a friend hand-deliver the ballot to the polling place, or at least to the post office up the way. I think. Fortunately it’s not a difficult slate. But more important, people have died for this right, and I must, as we all must, honor them.
Michael Cain
@Scout211: “I don’t know the exact percentage, but you can vote by mail here in California. Many, many people do.”
From memory (so at least a bit suspect), of all ballots cast in California, about 65% by mail. Arizona, about 75%. Montana, about 50%. Utah has been converting county-by-county for a couple of years, this year will probably be about 65% total. Colorado, Oregon, and Washington — the infamous vote-by-mail trio — run something over 95%. In the Census Bureau’s western region, well over half of all votes cast are cast by mail. Might hit two-thirds regionally this year.
Kraux Pas
@schrodingers_cat:
I’d bet on it. 2 is said to be a sure bet, establishing a citizens’ commission to limit the influence of money in politics. 3 is for transgender rights to affirm a law already passed by the legislature. We tend to be pretty live-and-let-live around here so I expect it to pass also, I’d be depressed about the state of my community if it didn’t.
1, about nurse staffing levels, seems to be the most up-in-the-air. Still, the polling seems like it’s leaning yes.
retiredeng
@schrodingers_cat: Both of us are.
Spanky
@Patricia Kayden: Jealous is the dog that caught the car. I have no confidence that he can manage a state, but I’ll vote for him over a Republican, even if Hogan is more liberal than, say, Manchin. The lege will keep Hogan’s right-wing impulses in check. Just have to make sure Frosh gets back as AG and Franchot as Comptroller.
I see via ballotopedia.org that I get to choose to keep or recall 4 judges, Need to study up on those.
Miss Bianca
@HeleninEire: I was in Europe for the 1988 election. I remember my bf and I had our absentee ballots sent somewhere – I can’t remember where we were when we voted, but I do distinctly recall getting our ballots and filling them out in some post office somewhere – probably in Italy, since that’s where we would have been in October. We still lived in Michigan, but were moving to Chicago, so they were *probably* Michigan ballots but, again, I don’t remember. I just remember hearing the news that Bush had beaten Dukakis rather soundly, and feeling depressed. Ah, those halcyon days of innocence, when I thought Ronald Reagan and Poppy Bush were the worst the Republican Party could offer!
Gravenstone
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: Here’s a novel thought, Bernie old bean. Why don’t you use your platform for self promotion and maybe, ya know – tell your fucking mouth breathing sycophants to get off their asses and VOTE for the Democrats this year! You can always try to co-opt the party again in 2020.
Butter Emails!!!
Too soon to be certain. They should be, but ballot question 1 has a lot of ho$pital and other wealthcare money opposing it. Most of the adds run along the lines of “We’re all going to die, just like the sick people in California where EMTs line up for hours grabbing the wall while their patients either bleed out are consumed by flesh eating bacteria. Don’t let that happen here!”
1. A yes vote would place an upper limit on the number of patients per registered nurse based on unit and level of care.
2. A yes vote establishes a citizens commission to push an amendment to the US Constitution to limit the influence of money on elections and establish that corporations aren’t actually people too my friends.
3. A yes vote leaves in place the current law which protects from discrimination on the basis of gender in public accommodations
Middlelee
@Middlelee:
Nevermind. Just reread your post and caught that you wrote email, not mail. Guess I’ll get that second cup of coffee which apparently I need.
Kraux Pas
@Gravenstone:
He may want to paraphrase…
trollhattan
@Michael Cain:
Here are the CA voting data back to ’62. The historical high proportion of mail-in to date is 69.4%.
JoeyJoeJoe
@TomatoQueen: that’s my polling place as well. I’ll definitely be out there handing stuff out for most of the day. If the lines there are long, it’s a good sign. The precinct is like 80% democratic most of the time
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@The Moar You Know:
I’m not a fucking troll btw.
The Moar You Know
@Miss Bianca: I am religiously convinced that if Reagan were around today, he would be twice as bad as Trump, and be gleefully slashing the nation’s government and infrastructure to the bone with an acquiescent Congress, but hey…not nearly as embarrassing. But the man was a violent anti-democratic fascist to the core.
Bush I was no peach, but he isn’t his appalling son and he isn’t Trump. The kind of Republican you grudgingly live with until you can elect better.
rp
@Patricia Kayden: Same. I live in Mont. County and haven’t seen a single Jealous tv ad or sign. Pathetic campaign.
Kraux Pas
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: Ooh, while I have you here, per something you wrote about me roughly a week ago:
I’ve been coming here since 2007. I’ve only had one other name, one which was very similar.
Nothing that I put in that post or any post ever has been negative about Elizabeth Warren, whom I’ve loved for years before she even ran for office.
oldster
Help me out:
What’s the best place to donate in order to make sure the House goes Democratic?
My local upstate NYS race looks like a lost cause–I’m going to throw a bit of money at it, just cause I live here, but I don’t have much hopes for it.
Instead, I want most of my money to go to the races that Dems have a good shot at *winning*, if they get a bit more cash.
I know BJ had an ActBlue fund like that for a while, but I don’t see any links to it now.
Kraux Pas
@The Moar You Know:
Reagan was just the prototype to Trump. We couldn’t go full fascist all at once, we had to build it over 30 years. Also, Republicans needed to refine their whole shtick of minor celebrities selling horrible ideas. For a party that always complains about the influence of celebrities on politics…
Bush I at least operated within the real world. II was an important step on the road to the current madness; he, Romney, and so many other “moderate” Republicans were totally on board the “lie about everything to win” train well before Trump came into focus.
HeleninEire
@Miss Bianca: As an American living in Ireland I can vote in Presidential elections at the American embassy. I just did not think I could get a NY ballot and vote in local NY elections.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Kraux Pas:
Mind refreshing my memory by quoting the post or something? If I made a mistake I genuinely apologize.
LuciaMia
Its like ‘I, Claudius, with each subsequent emperor getting worse than the last.
FlipYrWhig
@rp: Maybe it’s hard to come up with catchy marketing or clever slogans when you get stuck with a nondescript name like… “Jealous.” ;/
Kraux Pas
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: It was the one when Warren posted her video about her heritage and DNA test.
Gravenstone
@Kraux Pas: It’s you, so NO.
Kraux Pas
@Gravenstone: Hey, how’s that clingy grudgy thing working out for ya?
Kent
Dropping my ballot off today here in Washington State. We have vote by mail here in WA and our ballots arrived in yesterday’s mail. This year came with a postage paid return envelope. In previous years you had to buy a stamp or drop it in one of the red metal ballot boxes outside most municipal buildings around the region. I’ll probably still drop my into one of the red ballot boxes rather than into the mail. Not sure why….seems more direct that way. We also have in-person voting on election day at a few regional combined precincts set up around the region where you can walk in and vote if you missed the mail in deadlines. I’m not sure how many people actually do that or what kind of ballots they get. I’m guessing it is the same scannable paper ballots they send out by mail but they may also have machines to accomodate certain disabilities.
For the first time in a LONG time we actually have some competitive races here for Congress as well as for our state house and senate. Carolyn Long is giving our local tea party hack Jamie Herrera Beutler a run for her money in the WA-3rd. Cross your fingers. Polling has been all over the map but I’m hopeful. This is the district that includes Vancouver WA across the river from Portland as well as a lot of more deeply red rural and exurban areas further out. All the growth in the district has been from people moving into the Vancouver area, mostly from Portland and California. So it should be growing more blue. We shall see.
burnspbesq
@guachi:
You’ll have a125-year supply.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@Kraux Pas:
Well, I’m sorry.
El Caganer
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: “Either we will win…or we will lose!” JFC. Not exactly the most profound statement in modern American politics, is it?
Suzanne
So I have been busting my ass since taking this new gig in February, and I finally decided yesterday that I don’t really like it and I want to go back to my old office after the New Year. I ran into my former managing partner over the weekend and he said I can come back any time I want (without me asking) and my former studio leader and I have a lunch on the calendar. I have learned a lot at this office, but my boss is much of what I don’t want in a boss: high-strung, micro-manage-y, and just with a very narrow point of view.
It feels good.
Kent
@oldster:
Carolyn Long in the WA-3rd is as good of a bet as any for a Dem who could use a push over the finish line. Our TV market is the Portland market so more expensive than would otherwise be the case. Here’s the link to her web site with the donate button.
https://www.electlong.com/
Here’s the 538 forecast which has it lean REP https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/washington/3/
Kraux Pas
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: No worries, I’m just trying to set records straight because I think it’s one step to healing within the community.
japa21
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Since they got lucky to make it this far, that is a possibility, which makes me question God’s sanity.
SiubhanDuinne
@cope:
@The Moar You Know:
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I don’t wish dementia/Alzheimer’s on anyone, or their families.
Woodrow/Asim
@oldster: BJ ActBlue Page is what’s been posted here over the last few weeks.
AnotherBruce
@Kent: It is more direct. The boxes collect ballots only. And ballots that come through the post office need to be separated. You done good.
schrodingers_cat
I am listening to music by Ajay-Atul who are siblings. They use a fair amount folk sound of Maharashtra (the state my family is from in India) in their music. So it is close to my heart, the music and the language as well.
An example: Gondhal
CarolDuhart2
I voted on the 12th. Still nervous but hopeful. Worried about the House but still think we will get a whole lot of state legislators and Governors who will help us improve voting and keep Medicaid for a while longer.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Kraux Pas:
Correct reply is “I’ve seen you ‘work’ Joe, who are you kidding?”
Domestic short hair tabby (fka vheidi)
@the Conster: jealous! Go Sox ⚾ !
LaNonna
@HeleninEire:
We get our absentee ballots here in Italy, from our Adirondack county commissioner, both primary and general. Over 8 years here, never missed a vote, they do a great job of mailing us our ballots.
JMG
Wasp nest neutralized by pest control guy. I just voted. Early voting location bustling but not mobbed. No line, but all the stands for filling in the optical scan ballot were full except one. People coming in as I came out.
FelonyGovt
I like to vote in person, with my husband and daughter. And it gives me time to go over the propositions, judges, Assessor and other positions. I’m really annoyed because I haven’t received my sample ballot yet. I’ve called the LA County Registrar-Recorder twice and they say they were mailed out on October 15.
Mandalay
@Gelfling 545:
The probability of Democrats reclaiming the House has never been higher than it is right now; 538 rate the probability at 85.6%.
But you would never know that from media reports, which blather on about the alleged “Kavanaugh effect” and the “Republican backlash”, and regurgitate every detail of Trump’s lies about the Democrats.
Of course an 85.6% probability is not a certainty, and it’s good that the media is not presenting the retaking of the House as a done deal, but the extent to which the media is boosting the Republicans because horse race is absurd.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Nate makes an intresting point and why get out the vote really maters.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-some-competitive-races-have-little-to-no-polling-thats-a-problem/
The Moar You Know
@SiubhanDuinne: I lived up close with it for two years back in the 1990s, live in help for my grandmother who went downhill pretty fast, at least at first. I know what it is. I’m not “wishing it” on anyone, but don’t really give a fuck that Justice O’Connor has it. At all. She can at least afford the very best of care that her deliberate, conscious and partisan choices denied the rest of us from having.
NotMax
Shall vote on day of the election, as always. Polling place is only a block and a half away but prefer to drive as the walk to there from here to there is uphill all the way and the bad leg doesn’t handle trudging up inclines well at all.
SFAW
Re: MA Question 1:
Although there’s certainly more money being spent by the opponents, the proponents have thrown a goodly amount of money into it.
I’m a No on it. My wife — a nurse for 30-plus years is a No, for a couple of reasons [the extremely short time between the vote and implementation (CA had something like 7 years before it was fully implemented, I think), the CA measure didn’t really improve things as advertised, having the Commonwealth dictate staffing levels is a non-starter for her, the likelihood that small/community hospitals will have to cut back services significantly, if not close altogether]. My wife has also (informally) polled a number of her co-workers, including those from the last hospital where she worked — all are No votes.
I trust my wife’s judgment. (Although, I guess that judgment might be considered suspect, since she chooses to stay with me.) And I don’t necessarily trust the MNA. Although they seem to be playing it differently, they — as an organization — have their own agenda, which is not necessarily as altruistic as they seem to be portraying it.
Percysowner
I’m heading out tomorrow to vote.
JMG
My daughter lives in France and has not had any trouble voting in a Mass. election for three years now. Bill Galvin didn’t get the nickname Prince of Darkness for nothing (imagine what you have to do in Massachusetts politics to get that one!) but he runs elections well.
Gravenstone
@Suzanne: Happy for you to have that sort of escape hatch. I’m watching a friend jump from job to job to job over the last few years. Each seemingly appearing promising but showing itself to be worse than the previous disaster. I’ve been at the same place nearly 30 years and can’t even imagine having to start anew at my age. Especially given my field and education level, my job isn’t exactly portable these days.
schrodingers_cat
@SFAW: That was the one I was not sure of.
Lodev Mirsi
@HeleninEire: I’ve voted from France for the past 38 years.
Try this link : https://www.votefromabroad.org/states/NY
This will be useful for coming years. I think you said you were going to vote in person this year.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@The Moar You Know:
Did you not see my comment at #123? Or my explanation on the Tuesday Morning Thread?
Wapiti
and voted just now.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@FelonyGovt: Madame hasn’t received her’s either, she’s also called them.
Mary G
@Shana: We have massive numbers of polling places here in CA; Rachel Maddow did a thing on it and the comparison to some of the Republican states was huge. They put them anywhere and everywhere – she had film of a YMCA pool with voting booths on the side. She was gobsmacked, which surprised me, because I have voted in all kinds of places and never had a polling place I couldn’t walk to from home.
Maybe it’s also a function of not using machines, just paper ballots, so there is no limitation by scarcity of equipment. Absentee ballots can be requested by anyone now, so you have time to sit at home and figure it all out. I am sure lots of people who go to the polls at the last minute don’t vote on the propositions, or vote no on all of them.
The booklet can be a doorstopper partly because it’s very comprehensive. They start with a quick guide, where a nonpartisan summary of each proposition on a page split in half with arguments for and against, and the estimated cost to the state and local government. The back if the book is the exact replica of the proposed laws, which can be really long and I have almost never even tried to read. It’s nice to know it’s there, though, I saw a thing on Twitter where a legislature in a red state is trying to keep the laws it passes secret by charging a lot of money to look at them. I doubt even Gorsuch and Kavanaugh will let that pass.
trollhattan
@Mary G:
They’ve dramatically increased the number of early drop-off spots and it’s kind of fun choosing one. I dropped my June primary ballot off at the Secretary of State’s office. Cutting out the middleman and all that. They gave me the sticker for my troubles.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Mary G:
That would surprise me as well, since Rachel grew up here in California.
geg6
@Mandalay:
I’ve had to check out on most media at this point. The GOP shilling they are is outrageous. I caught a few minutes of Rachel last night and turned the channel because it felt so panicked to me that I couldn’t take it. I don’t even know what she was talking about but her tone was creating massive anxiety in me immediately. The other morning, I accidentally turned Morning Joe on when I sat to drink my coffee and catch the local weather. And they were just horrible, screeching about how the Dems are going to lose it all because they don’t have a national leader, a message or any kind of fight. I couldn’t change the channel fast enough. None of it matches what I’m seeing on the ground here. The races are local, not national. Their common message is about health care and the tax cut with local issues filling things out. And we’re raising tons of cash, have more volunteers and more animated people involved than I’ve ever seen in over forty years of being politically active around here. They really do live in a bubble and I don’t need their antics making me more nervous and upset than I already am over this election. Screw them.
Brachiator
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Why is polling essential to voting?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@trollhattan: Looks like there are only two locations here in Glendale(City Hall and the main library).
Julie
I live in the safest Republican district in WA state, so not much excitement here. But at least Dan Newhouse has an actual Democrat as an opponent this time, and not another Republican. Would love to see Lisa Brown beat Cathy McMorris Rodgers in WA-5. Cathy’s TV ads are maddeningly deceptive. Not only will she protect pre-existing conditions, she is also leading the charge for clean energy. Huh???
WaterGirl
If you give me a math “word problem” where there really is an answer to be had, I can stay at it all day.
If you give me a word problem and tell me that all the necessary information may or may not have been provided, I grow frustrated and give up.
I think that’s what they are doing with all this news about Republican enthusiasm and polls tightening and the blue wave won’t be a wave at all, and the Russians may be interfering again (which they might be!) and on and on.
They are telling us that there may not be an answer to our “word problem” and the intent is to wear us down, cause frustration, and take the wind out of our sails until we say fuck it, it doesn’t matter what we do, there’s no way out of this mess, it’s hopeless.
FUCK THEM. The women are pissed. Do not piss off the women!
SFAW
@schrodingers_cat:
Nor was I, until I spoke with my wife about it. The Mass Nurses Assn union (MNA) certainly puts up some convincing ads, but as with most advocacy ads, they don’t necessarily give a full picture.
I’ve been involved in arguments/discussions with proponents, and far too many of them (i.e., of the ones I discuss it with) are into the whole “the hospital administrators and management are TEH EVUL AND DON’T CARE ABOUT PATIENT SAFETY! OMFG!” argument. It gets tiresome. I have no particular love for hospital management, but the over-the-top bullshit from some proponents reminds me of the Rethuglicans talking about Dems.
DISCLAIMER: Yes, I realize that most Q1 supporters are probably not like that, and my experience is anecdotal.
Villago Delenda Est
@Thoughtful David: Adorn the chair with the head of Mitch McConnell.
jackmac
Sometimes first-time voting can be like jumping through hoops. I’ve been after my college-age daughter for months to register AND vote. She’s in school in central Illinois, about 90 miles from home. She wanted to vote down there, so I personally drove her to the County Clerk’s office in Bloomington, Ill., the county seat for McLean County, to register. It went smoothly and she received her voter’s card a couple of weeks later. So I give the Republican-controlled office credit for that. But then, we discovered her polling place would be 1.2 miles away from her dorm, a 40-minute walk. Walking on an election day featuring four classes, lengthy band practice and uncertain weather was a deal breaker. She asked about mail voting, but it seemed too inconvenient. Then we discovered she could early vote on campus in a building she passes through daily. Finally, a solution! So she’s scheduled to vote today and said she’s very excited.
reid
@dexwood: You’re in Abq? Good job! Easy to find good green chile and beer there, mmm. (I’m in Los Alamos but get down there often.)
germy
Exclusive: In Leaked Audio, Brian Kemp Expresses Concern Over Georgians Exercising Their Right to Vote
Kathleen
@donnah: I’m voting early next week in Ohio. I’ve got list of Dem endorsed judges, will vote straight Dem ticket all the way, voting Yes on Issue 1 and Ham Co renewal for children ‘s services, but have to research a tad more on several City issues. Volunteered to hand out Dem literature at the polls and phone bank for judges next week.
Mary G
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I didn’t put that well. She was gobsmacked by how far voters in red states had to go to vote and how few polling places there were, leading to long lines, and explaining why that doesn’t happen here often. It isn’t like Dodge City, where Kobach set up one polling place a mile from anywhere for a town of 27,000 people. My mom was a volunteer for years and years and she would get excited if they had 200-300 people on the day. Once they only had 89 and she was furious. On her lunch break she got on the pay phone outside and started calling people to get their asses over and vote.
trollhattan
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Apparently Sac and four other counties have adopted the new system, starting with the primary. There are 53 dropoff locations across the county. Would be nice to see it used statewide.
Citizen Alan
@Kraux Pas:
Bush Sr.’s problem wasn’t that he was deranged like most Republicans. It was that he was simply a person of no ethical character. Remember, this is the guy who invented the phrase voodoo economics in order to mock Reagan and the other supply-siders. And then once he realized that voodoo economics was exactly what Republican voters wanted, he turned on the dime and embraced it. He was also, IIRC, a proud supporter of Planned Parenthood right up until the moment back the Talibangelicals took over the GOP.
Comrade Colette Collaboratrice
I’ve filled in a little over 2 pages so far of my 7-page ballot. There are roughly 20 races, some with multiple candidates to choose (“vote for 3 of the following 17”), and about 20 state and local propositions. San Francisco puts every damned thing to a vote – it’s even worse that California as a whole. It will take me a few more days to finish the whole thing and then I’ll drop it at City Hall.
The Moar You Know
@germy: The GOP has always thought that not everyone should vote and has legislated accordingly. They don’t care that it’s unconstitutional, they don’t care what you or I think about it. They will proceed accordingly until made to stop.
That a sitting SoS is allowed to run for other state offices is a travesty that I wouldn’t put up with from any party, but hey, Georgia.
trollhattan
@germy:
“I meant the other Georgia, you know, the country. They have issues.”
trollhattan
@The Moar You Know:
Guns are a right, voting is a privilege.
–Every Republican everywhere
Mandalay
@Brachiator:
It isn’t at all, but it’s absolutely vital for Nate Silver’s bank balance. It also gives the media an opportunity to blather for hours, saying absolutely nothing of value.
When several major media figures (Rose, Halperin, Lauer) disappeared overnight due to their creepy conduct, it quickly became obvious that they were not really missed at all. I’d say the same for windbag pontificators like Nate Silver. The media would miss him because he provides talking points to fill the air between the ads, but would the public give a flying fuck if he was abducted by aliens? Would we be any the worse off without his “talent”?
(To be clear, I have nothing against Nate Silver, and polls can perform a useful function, but the endless analysis of every tiny detail of polling data is completely worthless.)
Doug R
@afanasia: That’s the “Door Into Summer”, also a great sci-fi story by Robert Heinlein.
Kathleen
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??: Such value added perspective and unique insight. Should be worth two fully booked weekends on all iterations of “Meet the Hacks”. (Gag)
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@germy:
Brian Kemp is a real genius. Apparently, sending out negative flyers about your opponent is “suppressing votes”.
AliceBlue
@Mandalay: Most pundits spend too much time with their ears to the ground to smell change in the air.
(I stole that from a commenter on one of Charles Pierce’s twitter threads, and I thought it was too good not to share).
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@The Moar You Know:
STOP. FUCKING. IGNORING. ME.
All I want to do is make absolutely clear that I am not a troll. I am not an asshole. I was only trying to reassure Kay. I didn’t call her “defeatist” in that morning thread. As for the original comment you responded to of mine, I wasn’t being defeatist either, I was just being cynical based on Roberts’ past performance.
Kraux Pas
@Citizen Alan:
I mean don’t get me wrong, I consider myself in exile from the Republican Party since the 1912 convention.
Groucho48
@SiubhanDuinne:
On my Google News home page, these are the headlines for the elections…
Vox
Midterm elections 2018 predictions: new poll finds tight House races
Democrats have a notably small lead, given their hopes of taking back the House of Representatives in November.
Fox News
October surprise? 5 things that could rock the midterms
From the growing caravan of migrants making its way toward America’s southern border to a pledge of new tax cuts for middle-income Americans, the midterm …
RealClearPolitics
Five Reasons Republicans Can Hold the House
Despite conventional wisdom, there is a path for Republicans to hold their majority in the House. Democrats need a net pickup of 23 seats to gain control of the …
Bloomberg
Polls Could Be Missing a GOP Surge. Here’s Why.
It certainly looks like Democrats will do well in the midterms.
Fox News
Lisa Boothe: Migrant caravan is a political gift to Trump
Analysis | The Daily 202: Generic Democrats in Midwest faring better than more fiery liberals in Sun Belt
With Breanne Deppisch and Joanie Greve. THE BIG IDEA: ANN ARBOR, Mich. — The Midwest is poised to be the epicenter of Democratic gains in the midterms …
Kraux Pas
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
Criticizing your Republican opponent is obviously morally equivalent to physically preventing people from voting, if not a little worse.
Citizen Alan
@Kraux Pas:
One of my great historical regrets is that the Bull Moose Party never took off.
??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
To add onto this, I still think they can be overcame.
sheila in nc
@Brachiator:
Polling isn’t essential to voting, it’s essential to (good) predictions. I think that’s what Nate means.
Kraux Pas
@sheila in nc:
The way it was used in 2016, I would say it is essential in engendering complacency in D voters.
@Citizen Alan:
Wasn’t Rocky the Squirrel the one who could fly?
Spanky
I see some of you saying you haven’t seen a sample ballot. Go to ballotpedia.org, enter your street address, and they show you your sample ballot.
eemom
@The Moar You Know:
I just got done posting this exact sentiment elsewhere, but you said it better.
The woman is responsible for the eight miserable years of the Bush presidency and all the horrors it wrought and continues to wreak upon the world.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Spanky: It’s a bit more than seeing your sample ballot(also some folk don’t have the internet), the sample ballot here in CA also has the location of your polling place.
Tata
Last week, my husband and I voted by mail in New Jersey for the first time. We were skeptical at first, but the promise of having a paper record of our votes was alluring. Then, it turned out to be easy as well. Total win-win.
MGB
Mostly lurker here. Chicago voter here. Voted in my ward’s early voting location yesterday afternoon. At 2 pm, definitely more people voting than I’ve seen voting when I usually do, which is mid-afternoon, in a residential area of the city. No line, but most of the booths were occupied when I arrived and people were coming in as I left.
Matt McIrvin
@Mandalay: I could see an argument for banning them within X days of the election, like in some countries. Remove the question of which side is winning now from the picture.
jeffreyw
@Doug R:
Groucho48
@SFAW:
A lot depends on the details. There are general guidelines out there on preferred and minimum staffing levels for various types of patient care. Do Mass hospitals and nursing homes generally meet those standards?
Here in NYS, I worked on an inpatient psych unit. There were staffing levels set either by the state or by the Jont Accreditation Commission. My hospital tried to get around them in numerous ways. The basic standard for psych was 1 staff for every 4 patients, for day and evening shifts. The hospital claimed that weekends didn’t need as many staff…when staff was more needed as the doctors weren’t around. No Occupational Therapy, limited Recreation, fewer structured activities of any kind. So, more boredom and time to brood. They also claimed that if the unit capacity was 16 and there were only 14 patients at the time, only 3 staff members were needed. Night staffing was a constant battle.
I heard similar stories about the medical and surgical floors. Administration was constantly playing games to keep staffing down.
So, whether the proposition is a good one depends a lot on what hospitals and nursing homes are doing currently.
jeffreyw
@??? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ??:
Accusing others of doing what you are doing is a tried and true tactic. It spreads fog and enables whataboutism.
oldster
Thanks, everybody.
I donated to a bunch of different races from the BJ 47-way split. (Not all of them, but about 30 of them).
And a little extra to my local, just in the vain hope that she might pull it out, or that I’ll have less reason to kick myself when she does not….
Brachiator
@WaterGirl:
Would people prefer a news blackout, and no coverage of the elections at all until after November 6? And no coverage. Not even of attempts at voter suppression.
Anyway, I keep saying that voting begins when the first vote by mail ballots can be turned in. And we vote through the last day, November 6. Every day in between is a day to make a difference.
Scout211
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
We didn’t get sample ballots this year in California, either. We received the election information booklet and our vote-by-mail ballots, but not the sample ballot.
Is this a county or state issue?
Litlebritdifrnt
@Mandalay: I always used to say “Stay Calm and Trust Nate Silver” until 2016 and everything went to shit. I really don’t know how he could have got it so wrong other than in reality he didn’t and the election was actually stolen. It is the only reasonable explanation.
Kraux Pas
@Litlebritdifrnt: Remember that an overwhelming probability is not a certainty.
schrodingers_cat
@Matt McIrvin: If I were running the elections, I would ban all polls and campaign ads 4 days before the elections and make election day a holiday.
Brachiator
@sheila in nc:
OK. After a certain point, I don’t care about predictions.
ruckus
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I have 4 places within walking distance of me here in Pasadena. Even more if you want to stretch your legs a bit.
Joseph A. Miller
Just voted straight Democratic out here in Blue Hawaii.
NotMax
@schrodingerss_cat
Extremely leery about that last part. People being what they are, too many would take Monday off and skip out of town for a four day weekend and not be present to vote.
As for banning polls, runs smack into First Amendment problems.
Bruce K
@HeleninEire: Initially I got set up through the Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP.gov), if I recall correctly. I get my ballots from New York because that was my last residence before moving abroad, but the ballots I’m sent are only for federal elections (though I do get primary ballots as well as general-election ballots). And yes, they do send my ballots to my address in Europe. They also send a postage-prepaid envelope, though it’s only postage-prepaid if mailed in the United States. (They say I can get it sent back Stateside for free by dropping it off at the US embassy or a US military base; I decided I trusted Hellenic Post more than the State Department under the cheeto.)
They also send an electronic ballot package that I can print out, fill out, and fold up to mail back (some of the printouts are envelope forms).
Kelly
@schrodingers_cat: I would eliminate election day. Mail in ballots sent out several weeks before they are due would make last minute lies useless. Thinking about tabulating votes a couple of times. It would drive turnout if you read your side was losing this week.
Scout211
For Californians: apparently in 2011, the legislature passed a law that you can “opt in” or “opt out” of receiving a sample ballots in the mail. You can do that online on your county’s election website. If you don’t choose to receive the sample ballot by mail, you can access it online.
I don’t remember ever opting in or opting out so I guess my county chose for me and stopped sending it in the mail.
ruckus
@SiubhanDuinne:
Having my dad have Alzheimer’s and grandma with dementia, I won’t wish them on anyone either. It i/can be a slow and very obnoxious way to go though.
WaterGirl
@Brachiator:
I was formulating a similar question (sort of) in my mind on the way home from lunch today.
Here’s what I was wondering.
Rs currently hold the house, the senate, the oval office, the supreme court, and a majority of the governorships and state houses.
Hope, and the potential for dashed hopes, can be so painful. Not knowing is hard. I think we all have a bit of PTSD from November 2016.
If people could have a choice, would they rather live with the status quo? Or live with the uncertainty of the upcoming elections, with all the possible victories and all the possible defeats ahead?
Then I wondered whether the answer to that question would separate optimists from pessimists. Then I thought maybe the whole question was dumb, but then you went and made me think about it again with your question. :-)
Chyron HR
@jeffreyw:
“You know what’s really, really interesting? Bridge.”
― Robert A. Heinlein, 1939-1988
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Scout211: It’s a county issue.
NotMax
@Chyron HR
Heinlein didn’t die at 49. He was born in 1907. His first published SF work was in 1939, however.
jacy
@Litlebritdifrnt:
He didn’t really get it wrong. Giving somebody a 10% chance of winning an election means that in 10 out of 100 tries, that person will win the election. (Yes, I know that’s simplified, but you get the idea.) Probability is not certainty. And any poll is only as good as the information that is fed in. By nature, if weird things are happening that are not expected, the information that goes in won’t be as accurate.
MomSense
I’m planning to vote tomorrow. I was going to vote today but when I came home I discovered dog puke on every soft surface in the living room. She walked over a lot of wood flooring to get to the area rugs, the mats in front of the doors, and the couch.
VeniceRiley
@Scout211: Yes on the back of my sample ballot for Orange County there is an opt in to go paperless delivery of guides: ocvote.com/paperless
SFAW
@Groucho48:
Re: hospitals: in general, I don’t know. I’ve seen some figures for xICU areas (NICU, PICU, etc.), but data for overall facilities or specific units is pretty sparse, as far as I can tell.
In MA, what seems to be the case is that the large hospitals (MGH and their associated facilities) would be able to handle the disruption, but that small/community hospitals will have a tough time of it, to put it nicely.
Question 1 does not address nursing home ratios at all, as far as I can tell. (I might be wrong about that, because I haven’t read Q1 word-by-word, only various summaries and certain sections.)
Mandalay
@Litlebritdifrnt:
To be fair to Nate Silver, his argument was that he didn’t get the election result wrong: he said Trump had a 1 in 4 chance of winning and events with a 1 in 4 probability happen all the time, and that’s certainly true.
But the problem was that Silver happily went on pre-election talk shows bathing in the glory of being some kind of Nostradamus, and he only changed the packaging of his prediction of a Clinton victory once it was swirling around the bowl and stinking out the room. Had he been more humble and less smug before the election, and much more open about what an “X% chance of victory” actually means, I would have had a lot more sympathy, but it’s hard to feel sorry for someone who acts like their shit doesn’t stink.
I suspect he was pretty confident that Clinton was going to win and adjusted his behavior accordingly, and it ended badly for him.
MomSense
@Mandalay:
Actually he got a lot of flack from the other pollster/prognosticators who had Clinton’s chances much higher.
Mnemosyne
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
You can get your sample ballot and polling place from your CA county’s website — the one for LA County is http://www.LAVote.net
I’m pretty sure that everyone reading this website has internet access. ?
HeleninEire
@Bruce K: Does “federal elections” mean the Congress? I guess they are Federal but voted locally. I’m OK in NY for the House and the Senate. My district always go Dem. But I am now curious if I can vote on the 6th since I will be back in NY. And I checked; I’m still registered. If so, it’s interesting that I can vote for a NY Senator even though I don’t live there anymore.
VeniceRiley
Oh and ‘kos has some interesting statehouse women in critical races to donate to if you’re thinking your usual recipients are flush.
Scout211
@Scout211:
Finally found it in an obscure place on my county election website. My county (Calaveras) does not send out sample ballots unless you request them by phone or by email.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@MomSense: Yeah, my recollection is it was Nate Silver’s (slight?) pessimism and warnings vs Sam Wang’s “pffft, she’s got this” in the last week before the election.
ETA: but I don’t remember anyone predicting the Stein surge
Mnemosyne
@ruckus:
And if you’d forgotten to request a mail-in ballot, you can early vote in person at the Jackie Robinson Community Center on Fair Oaks. Pasadena seems to be covered. ?
Joe Falco
@schrodingers_cat:
If I was running elections, I’d set up free pedicure stations and massage chairs at every polling station. I believe in a government that not just encourages voting but rewards voters. Also, make every polling station catered. Make America Eat Again!
Mnemosyne
@Scout211:
Do they send them over via jumping frog? ?
NotMax
@Mandalay
Silver became flavor of the month mostly because he managed to successfully exploit the internet at roughly the same time it became a force rather than a novelty regarding elections and election coverage.
As for some of the other comments above, he is not and never has been infallible. He (and others with longer histories) provide a constantly amended guide, not a firm blueprint. And, as also stated above, GIGO is always lurking in the wings.
Scout211
@Mnemosyne:
Well, sure. Why do you ask? :)
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Mnemosyne: Everyone that comments here may have good internet access, others do not.
ETA: Now, back to editing the kid’s pics from New Zealand.
schrodingers_cat
@Mnemosyne: Have you watched Newton, yet? I saw it this last weekend.
Emma
@Litlebritdifrnt: He got it wrong BECAUSE the election was stolen. Full stop. It wasn’t a “black swan” event; it was armed robbery.
trollhattan
@Emma:
Something to that.
jeffreyw
OK, so I’ve just installed a phone that is supposed to be louder because I’m an old, and have infantry induced hearing loss. But don’t call me, because I have the ringers off. I’ll call you, if I have to. Hey! You kids! SCRAM!
WaterGirl
@MomSense: My guys do that, too, especially the kitties.
Do you have a SpotBot?
Cole recommended it I don’t know how many years ago, and I bought one. It is awesome for cleaning up puke and poop and pee. It’s maybe the best thing I’ve bought that wasn’t an iPod or a smart phone.
(You have to pick up the chunks of puke, of course, but it does the rest.)
Tim C.
@Kelly: There is a place for you….. Oregon is 100% vote by mail.
Raven Onthill
I’m starting to have the feeling it will be a squeaker, but all the more reason to vote, and vote early.
My spouse and I spent this morning working on ballots. The top-line candidates are easy but, initiatives? Those laws ought to have been written by a legislative committee, not activist or, worse, industry groups. At least one is a purported anti-tax initiative that is actually a “cities don’t get to impose extra taxes on soft drinks” initiative. Still, voted on the progressive line. Local judges and prosecutors? Information? Hah! There is a very nice “voting for judges” site in my state, but the information provided is limited.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Brachiator: A lot of people say “my vote doesn’t count, look a the polling” except the polls aren’t nearly as scientific as press likes to pretend.
trollhattan
@jeffreyw:
Am reminded of Garrett Morris presenting the SNL news top stories for the hard-of-hearing.
“Tonight’s top story.”
“TONIGHT’S TOP STORY.”
“President Ford welcomed the West German ambassador to the White House.”
“PRESIDENT FORD WELCOMED THE WEST GERMAN AMBASSADOR TO THE WHITE HOUSE.”
And, scene
Barbara
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: The House elections are especially hard to model, and especially for midterms. This is somehow never explained in articles.
Mnemosyne
@schrodingers_cat:
Not yet, but I have it available on either Amazon Prime or Netflix (I forget which). Did you like it?
I have a writing conference and a work event this weekend, but I might be able to squeeze in watching it on Sunday afternoon.
jeffreyw
@trollhattan:
I understand they had plans for a Braille Newshour but the top execs killed it. They said they just didn’t feel that it would work.
WaterGirl
My only prediction is that we will likely lose some race that we totally thought we would win, and we will win some race that we thought we wouldn’t win.
I think the polls are worthless this year.
Likely voters? Out the window. Too many things have happened to change who the likely voters are.
How many things have happened to get women who have not paid attention before to pay attention now?
The makeup of candidates is different for Dems, and that has to bring out new voters. They aren’t measuring that, either.
Who doesn’t have caller ID on their land lines? Old people, most likely with no kids or grandkids to set it up for them. Demographics of people answering the phones get more skewed with each election.
At this point, I only have my land line so I can dial my cell phone when I can’t figure out where it is. And because my land line is still on my business cards, and I have a million of them, so why get them reprinted?
TL;DR: Just do your part and don’t sweat the polls.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@jeffreyw: WHAT?
Raven Onthill
The sheer amount of money that has gone into some of the initiatives is staggering. Washington has a population of 7.4 million. The Western States Petroleum Association has raise $26.2 million for their anti-carbon tax initiative. Their opponents, Clean Air Clean Energy Washington, has raised $13.0 million. The sugar industry has raised $20.2 million for their deceptive initiative.
This is nothing like a useful deliberative process.
Scott
@Litlebritdifrnt: Nate Silver said that there was a 74% chance (if my memory is correct) that HIllary would win. That meant that Donald Trump had about 26% chance of winning – or the same chance you have of flipping heads twice. Which isn’t a once in a lifetime event!
One problem with polling is that people who are not mathematically inclined don’t understand probability. Polling showing a slight lead with great certainty is better than polling showing a medium sized lead with great uncertainty. I think. Math is hard.
schrodingers_cat
@Mnemosyne: I liked it. Its a snap shot of the Indian democracy from the POV of the people on the ground. They managed to tackle the weighty questions of franchise and ballot access, without getting too preachy. The acting was top notch and the dialog crackling. I am not sure how good the subtitles are. Rajkumar Rao (the clueless and assholish suitor in Queen, is Newton. I also liked Pankaj Tripathi with his deadpan delivery as the CRPF guy in charge of security, and Sanjay Mishra as Newton’s mentor and Anjali Patil as the local ballot officer.
trollhattan
@jeffreyw:
“didn’t feel…” Heh!
Cheryl from Maryland
@rp: Also MoCo here. I’m more focused on the House District 6th and County Executive than Governor (I will vote for Jealous, but he violates one of my principles — don’t start with the top job). House District 6th was my biggest worry with Delaney’s retirement — the attention given to that District regarding gerrymandering (Maryland has some ugly districts, but the 6th isn’t one of them. Based on population alone, MoCo deserves two representatives). I voted for Miller in the primary as Trone again violates my principle of starting lower down, plus he was Mr. Moneybags trying to buy another district in 2016. Also, his hiding his cancer diagnosis didn’t help. But he’s polling well (white male) in the red parts of the District. As for Country Executive, Nancy Floreen’s actions have me spitting mad as either her (pawn for developers and construction firms like the one who used substandard concrete for the Silver Spring Transit Center) or Robin Ficker (a lunatic) are not good for County Executive. I’m worried about Marc Elric getting the win, but I saw a TV commercial from him during the Washington/Dallas football game, and it was good. And now I just heard a good commercial for Jealous on the TV news.
Groucho48
@SFAW:
All I know about the measure is what I’ve seen here. I figured my experience might shed some light on it.
Was there an incident or series of incidents preceding this proposition? Has there been a history of nursing groups complaining about staffing levels?
Did a quick google. This is a link to a NYS Nursing Association fact sheet on mandatory staffing levels. You may find it helpful…
https://www.nysna.org/our-campaigns/safe-staffing/safe-staffing-myths-and-facts#.W8-Q9GhKiF4
Wapiti
@Raven Onthill: If you’re in WA state/Seattle environs, I’d recommend The Stranger’s voting guide. They might be a little too left sometimes, but they take some of the trouble out of winnowing candidates.
Raven Onthill
@Wapiti: thanks. I’m in Washington State but not in King County or Seattle, which means that a lot The Stranger’s endorsements aren’t of much use to me. :-( They’ve added some out-of-area elections this year, but none of mine. Their review of the State Supreme Court race however is very good. I could tell that Choi was a jerk from his ballot materials, but I didn’t realize how much of a jerk.
J R in WV
@The Moar You Know:
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I agree. I regret she won’t be retired to “Under-a-Bridge, WA” to subsist on sparrows. Her heart should weigh more than an anvil for that dirty deed. At least she should have recused herself, after publicly hoping Bush won, but nope, her personal wishes overwhelmed her legal duty!
Scuffletuffle
@schrodingers_cat: Yes, yes on,all three
J R in WV
@Suzanne:
Well, you know what they say: “If it feels good, do it!” Particularly if your former boss invited you back any time, that’s a good sign.
Nothing worse than a micro-manager, esp. a sensitive one. I was lucky to work mostly with people I would have hired in a flash!
NotMax
@jeffreyw
All agreed it was too touchy a subject.
J R in WV
@Scout211:
If you have the real ballot, why on Saturn would you complain about not having the “sample ballot”?!?!?! This may be the most stupid remark I ahve ever seen on the innertubez, evahr!
J R in WV
@Mnemosyne:
Woah!!!!
………………NOT ME!!!…………… ;-) heh…
J R in WV
@Scout211:
But your county sent you the real, actual, valid to cast, ballot, right? Wholly cow, how strange! Why would you want them to waste money sending you two ballots? A sample — and a real one!???
Mnemosyne
@J R in WV:
In CA, the sample ballot is the one that has all of the basics of what’s on the ballot (like propositions) with little statements about them, candidate statements, etc. It’s a really useful tool to fill out ahead of time before you go to your early voting location or polling place so you don’t waste everyone’s time trying to decide who to vote for or why there are two pages full of candidates but you can only vote for 3 of them.
Sample ballots are useful as hell and, as you can see, you will pry them from Californians’ cold dead hands.
Scout211
@J R in WV:
Whew! Tough room.
The point wasn’t that I wanted or needed one. Other folks were wondering where theirs were because they hadn’t received them yet. I was merely curious why some had received them and others had not in California because in the past we all received them.
But thank you for your feedback.
J R in WV
@Mnemosyne:
@Scout211:
OK, ok, sorry.
I sometimes get overworked up, and we spent 5 hours driving to and from a Dr appointment this afternoon. Plus I am certain I didn’t win the Mega$$ lotto, since we didn’t buy tix.
Sorry. Duh. Here a sample ballot is a copy of the real ballot with SAMPLE! printed on it. In the newspaper. duh.
Sorry, Scout, in particular. Duh!
Scout211
@J R in WV:
No worries. Sorry about your lost billions. ;-)
Amir Khalid
@J R in WV:
Don’t worry about not buying the lottery tickets. You can still have lottery-winning fantasies for free.