Just back from a Linn County caucus: Viable candidates were Warren, Biden, Klobuchar, Buttigeig (sp?), and Sanders … in that order. Sanders voters surprised me – I thought he would be much closer to the leaders. ETA – I went with Warren.
5.
Jerzy Russian
I would assume most of the caucuses are over by now? Given the relatively small number of participants, I wouldn’t think it should take that long to get some results out.
6.
Joe Falco
Here a twist at Drake U: @CoryBooker, who has dropped out of the race, has won one of six delegates awarded at precinct 38.
Supporters of non-viable candidates (Yang, Biden, and Klobuchar) banded together to deny Sanders, Warren, or Buttigieg that extra delegate. https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1224523110315122688?s=09
Never underestimate the power of Spite
7.
Jerzy Russian
@schrodingers_cat: More like teal maybe? Given the length of time this campaign has gone on, perhaps proper green balloons are in short supply.
8.
Han
@The Fat Kate Middleton: Linn Co. myself. Bernie, Warren, and Mayor Pete. Cannot believe Biden not viable.
9.
The Fat Kate Middleton
I also neglected to mention Linn County is where Cedar Rapids is located.We liven in a little rural hamlet named Bertram, just outside CR. Nevertheless, nearly 300 voters participated.
@Joe Falco: So why didn’t they just band together for Undecided? That’s what that group tried here. Didn’t hit viability though.
13.
guachi
This caucus is at least interesting in the fact that so many candidates are on the edge of viability. Will be interesting to see the breakdown from first round to last round after viability sorting.
14.
Suzanne
I am watching MSNBC with Mr. Suzanne, while Spawn the Youngest snoozes on my chest. We watched the Iowa caucuses on our first date in 2008. That was a good year, for multiple reasons.
We’re both leaning Warren, followed by Amy K, at this point. But really, we are Blue (or Bernie) No Matter Who.
WOW:This tweet has over 40,000 retweets and is 100% false. I have receipts.Don't let misinformation steal the 2020 election.RT for the truth! https://t.co/C5qqDmXmQB— Judd Legum (@JuddLegum) February 3, 2020
Charlie Kirk lying again,……
17.
RobertDSC-iPhone 8
I still don’t understand how anyone could consider a 78 year old man who has had a heart attack in the last calendar year and think he’s going to be a good President.
18.
Anya
I guess Bernie is not gonna clean the Caucus sites. But Biden might have a poor showing.
This caucus is at least interesting in the fact that so many candidates are on the edge of viability. Will be interesting to see the breakdown from first round to last round after viability sorting.
Yeah. It’s going to be interesting. Technically, someone with lower numbers overall, but less concentrated support could be viable in nearly all precincts while someone with higher overall but more concentrated support could be viable in significantly fewer precincts.
20.
Baud
@Anya: I’ll be pleased if Bernie underperforms. Iowa should be one of his better states.
21.
Ohio Mom
An old friend who is a college dance professor, lived in Iowa for a short while. She was fascinated with the caucuses as a sort of naturally occurring choreography.
I could see possible uses of the caucus method in very small groups, say a church deciding where to send their mission money. All the housing advocates over here, the health center supporters over there.
But as a substitute for a primary, they are obviously a horror and a travesty.
Again, important to remember that Dems made strides this year in replacing caucuses with primaries. Just not Iowa.
23.
Anya
@Baud: CNN was showing one of the sites he won big last time but this time Warren won it and he came third. I forgot the name. I am on pain killers so I slightly delirious so all of this might not even be real, including this post
24.
Suzanne
@Ohio Mom: Yeah, this is a goddamn cornflake.
It feels old-timey. I bet they have root beer.
25.
stinger
Also on the ground in Johnson County, though my precinct is so small we only get one delegate; therefore, the 15% viability rule doesn’t apply. One candidate had to get a simple majority.
First division: Sanders 20, Klobuchar 15, Buttigieg 12, Warren 12, Biden 5, Bennett 1
I was surprised the Biden support wasn’t stronger.
Second division: Sanders 28, Klobuchar 22, Buttigieg 12
So no movement toward Buttigieg, who apparently wasn’t anyone’s second choice.
In the past we would continue to have divisions until a group was viable, but the rules this year allowed only 2 divisions. As no candidate achieved a 33-vote majority, our delegate to the county convention in March is officially Unaligned, at least on the first division there; on subsequent divisions they can vote their preference. We all voted on the individual who would represent our precinct. The Buttigieg group joined with the Klobuchar group to send a Klobuchar supporter as the delegate, thus blocking Sanders. Several people — mostly Sanders people — volunteered as alternate delegates, but the official delegate is thrilled to be chosen and is staunchly Klobuchar, so the alternates are unlikely to be seated at county.
Now I will take my pigshit stink elsewhere. Sorry for offending delicate sensibilities.
We’re practically neighbors! Meet up (in more reliable weather)?
28.
Barbara
@stinger: Huh? Confused by your ending but happy for the news. Klobuchar is my secret hope.
29.
Jay
Receipts are being provided,
Does #TeamPatriot’s Louise Mensch who was working on the #voteleave campaign show up in Arron Banks’ DMs? Yes she does. She communicated with Banks who worked with Trump/Bannon in 2016 during the election cycle while she ran her Murdoch/FoxNews Alt-right disinfo site Heatstreet. https://t.co/rf2EksDc6q— Nadine van der Velde (@nadinevdVelde) February 3, 2020
30.
Another Scott
@Baud: As I understand it, Iowa can’t be a Primary and be first, according to New Hampshire state law. So it’s only going to be fixed if both states change their laws.
Or the Democratic Party changes its rules to ignore those contests.
Not sure which set of options will happen first…
Cheers,
Scott.
31.
Barbara
Nice to see your posts. It feels like it’s been a while. Hope you are doing well.
32.
The Fat Kate Middleton
@stinger: Love to! Not sure how to arrange it here, tho.
33.
Suzanne
Michael Steele looks like he is wearing fucking gift wrap.
34.
Barbara
@Barbara: That was supposed to be a reply to Fat Kate. Haven’t seen you lately.
35.
stinger
@Barbara: A front pager, and plenty of commenters, are resentful of Iowa going first and of the way our state’s political parties choose their nominees, and aren’t shy about openly insulting us.
But I value John Cole and most front pagers and commenters, so I’m sticking around.
36.
Ben Cisco
Holy schnikeys – Tweety just waxed eloquently (or as close to it as he can get) about AA voter suppression via primary/caucus scheduling.
I may need to go lie down…
37.
Jay
Video of Trump goofing around during National Anthem before the Super Bowl was "included in an Instagram story by a real estate agent for a Russian-American firm who frequents Mar-a-Lago and other Trump properties and events." https://t.co/OgYGBewiKn— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 3, 2020
38.
Ken
Whoever the winner is, I’d guess there’s about a 70% chance that Trump will start claiming that their kid (or spouse, or third cousin by marriage) is at the center of the Ukraine corruption scandal.
What is this lie supposed to accomplish? The D voters themselves know they’re not fraudulent. They’re actual people. This has always been the basic flaw in the voter fraud bullshit. There are no voters who think “I’ll stop my frauding ways, they’re on to me” because Republicans invented the problem.
40.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: The point is to sow doubt in the primary process so that some people on the left, who aren’t actually directly involved, get disgusted with the party and vote third-party or stay home. And to sow doubt in the general-election process so they can use that to raise mobs and work the refs if there’s a close result.
what he said, you can’t raise a crop of mushrooms with out plenty of bull shit.
Twitter is segmented. People follow and retweet the people they follow, very few ever step out of the like minded box they inhabit, so,……
43.
Jay
The attorneys general of North Carolina and New York ‘said they would be examining the operations of Jay Sekulow’s group Christian Advocates Serving Evangelism (Case).’ https://t.co/69ie0hzcnH— Jeff Stein (@SpyTalker) February 3, 2020
44.
dr. luba
Has anyone noticed quickly disappearing tweets tonight? I tried to heart two quite clever tweets (Wilmer-themed), only to have them disappear? It is Twitter or the new reporting system?
Like one by TBogg about the “Iowa Red Rover Red Rover, Let Bernie’s Delegates Come Over Iowa Caucus and Butter Sculpture Smackdown.”
45.
glory b
@Suzanne: Hey, how is the Pittsburgh move going? My suggestions for someone working in East Liberty and wanting to live close by: Shadyside, Squirrel Hill, Regent Square, Highland Park, and Friendship.
I don’t know your price range, there’s a pretty good variation there. I recall that you mentioned a Spanish immersion school, there is a Spanish magnet school in Shadyside.
46.
Brandon
Iowa caucus lol embarrassing
.
47.
stinger
@joel hanes: I’m wide open to discussions of how the nomination process should work and who should go first. As long as people can contribute mature comments and not gratuitous insults.
@dr. luba: I haven’t noticed it tonight, but I’ve been surprised when what I thought were clever and fine LOLGOP tweets (seen via the web interface) suddenly disappear. I figured he just decided that he didn’t like the way it turned out.
Dunno.
Cheers,
Scott.
50.
The Fat Kate Middleton
@Barbara: Yeah, just been lurking. Cancer’s in remission, but now my back’s gone all to hell (advanced disk degeneration). Anyway, I’m actually OK, but dealing with it takes a lot of time and effort. Thanks for asking.
I’m wide open to discussions of how the nomination process should work and who should go first. As long as people can contribute mature comments and not gratuitous insults.
Baud
Thanks. No one caucus site is relevant though.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: With so many green balloons I thought it was a BJ convention.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat: Haha. Good catch.
The Fat Kate Middleton
Just back from a Linn County caucus: Viable candidates were Warren, Biden, Klobuchar, Buttigeig (sp?), and Sanders … in that order. Sanders voters surprised me – I thought he would be much closer to the leaders. ETA – I went with Warren.
Jerzy Russian
I would assume most of the caucuses are over by now? Given the relatively small number of participants, I wouldn’t think it should take that long to get some results out.
Joe Falco
Never underestimate the power of Spite
Jerzy Russian
@schrodingers_cat: More like teal maybe? Given the length of time this campaign has gone on, perhaps proper green balloons are in short supply.
Han
@The Fat Kate Middleton: Linn Co. myself. Bernie, Warren, and Mayor Pete. Cannot believe Biden not viable.
The Fat Kate Middleton
I also neglected to mention Linn County is where Cedar Rapids is located.We liven in a little rural hamlet named Bertram, just outside CR. Nevertheless, nearly 300 voters participated.
Baud
@Joe Falco: Haha. Caucuses aren’t completely useless.
The Fat Kate Middleton
@Han: Amazing.
Han
@Joe Falco: So why didn’t they just band together for Undecided? That’s what that group tried here. Didn’t hit viability though.
guachi
This caucus is at least interesting in the fact that so many candidates are on the edge of viability. Will be interesting to see the breakdown from first round to last round after viability sorting.
Suzanne
I am watching MSNBC with Mr. Suzanne, while Spawn the Youngest snoozes on my chest. We watched the Iowa caucuses on our first date in 2008. That was a good year, for multiple reasons.
We’re both leaning Warren, followed by Amy K, at this point. But really, we are Blue (or Bernie) No Matter Who.
Anya
@Joe Falco: I like their commitment to spite
Jay
Charlie Kirk lying again,……
RobertDSC-iPhone 8
I still don’t understand how anyone could consider a 78 year old man who has had a heart attack in the last calendar year and think he’s going to be a good President.
Anya
I guess Bernie is not gonna clean the Caucus sites. But Biden might have a poor showing.
Butter Emails
@guachi:
Yeah. It’s going to be interesting. Technically, someone with lower numbers overall, but less concentrated support could be viable in nearly all precincts while someone with higher overall but more concentrated support could be viable in significantly fewer precincts.
Baud
@Anya: I’ll be pleased if Bernie underperforms. Iowa should be one of his better states.
Ohio Mom
An old friend who is a college dance professor, lived in Iowa for a short while. She was fascinated with the caucuses as a sort of naturally occurring choreography.
I could see possible uses of the caucus method in very small groups, say a church deciding where to send their mission money. All the housing advocates over here, the health center supporters over there.
But as a substitute for a primary, they are obviously a horror and a travesty.
Baud
@Ohio Mom: So say we all.
Again, important to remember that Dems made strides this year in replacing caucuses with primaries. Just not Iowa.
Anya
@Baud: CNN was showing one of the sites he won big last time but this time Warren won it and he came third. I forgot the name. I am on pain killers so I slightly delirious so all of this might not even be real, including this post
Suzanne
@Ohio Mom: Yeah, this is a goddamn cornflake.
It feels old-timey. I bet they have root beer.
stinger
Also on the ground in Johnson County, though my precinct is so small we only get one delegate; therefore, the 15% viability rule doesn’t apply. One candidate had to get a simple majority.
First division: Sanders 20, Klobuchar 15, Buttigieg 12, Warren 12, Biden 5, Bennett 1
I was surprised the Biden support wasn’t stronger.
Second division: Sanders 28, Klobuchar 22, Buttigieg 12
So no movement toward Buttigieg, who apparently wasn’t anyone’s second choice.
In the past we would continue to have divisions until a group was viable, but the rules this year allowed only 2 divisions. As no candidate achieved a 33-vote majority, our delegate to the county convention in March is officially Unaligned, at least on the first division there; on subsequent divisions they can vote their preference. We all voted on the individual who would represent our precinct. The Buttigieg group joined with the Klobuchar group to send a Klobuchar supporter as the delegate, thus blocking Sanders. Several people — mostly Sanders people — volunteered as alternate delegates, but the official delegate is thrilled to be chosen and is staunchly Klobuchar, so the alternates are unlikely to be seated at county.
Now I will take my pigshit stink elsewhere. Sorry for offending delicate sensibilities.
WaterGirl
@stinger: Happy to have the report!
stinger
@The Fat Kate Middleton:
We’re practically neighbors! Meet up (in more reliable weather)?
Barbara
@stinger: Huh? Confused by your ending but happy for the news. Klobuchar is my secret hope.
Jay
Receipts are being provided,
Another Scott
@Baud: As I understand it, Iowa can’t be a Primary and be first, according to New Hampshire state law. So it’s only going to be fixed if both states change their laws.
Or the Democratic Party changes its rules to ignore those contests.
Not sure which set of options will happen first…
Cheers,
Scott.
Barbara
Nice to see your posts. It feels like it’s been a while. Hope you are doing well.
The Fat Kate Middleton
@stinger: Love to! Not sure how to arrange it here, tho.
Suzanne
Michael Steele looks like he is wearing fucking gift wrap.
Barbara
@Barbara: That was supposed to be a reply to Fat Kate. Haven’t seen you lately.
stinger
@Barbara: A front pager, and plenty of commenters, are resentful of Iowa going first and of the way our state’s political parties choose their nominees, and aren’t shy about openly insulting us.
But I value John Cole and most front pagers and commenters, so I’m sticking around.
Ben Cisco
Holy schnikeys – Tweety just waxed eloquently (or as close to it as he can get) about AA voter suppression via primary/caucus scheduling.
I may need to go lie down…
Jay
Ken
Whoever the winner is, I’d guess there’s about a 70% chance that Trump will start claiming that their kid (or spouse, or third cousin by marriage) is at the center of the Ukraine corruption scandal.
Kay
@Jay:
What is this lie supposed to accomplish? The D voters themselves know they’re not fraudulent. They’re actual people. This has always been the basic flaw in the voter fraud bullshit. There are no voters who think “I’ll stop my frauding ways, they’re on to me” because Republicans invented the problem.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: The point is to sow doubt in the primary process so that some people on the left, who aren’t actually directly involved, get disgusted with the party and vote third-party or stay home. And to sow doubt in the general-election process so they can use that to raise mobs and work the refs if there’s a close result.
joel hanes
@Barbara:
confused by your ending
Speculating:
For a while, the blue political blogs have been full of condemnations of the Iowa caucus process, and of Iowa going first.
If one were an Iowa political activist who was committed to using existing structures to do actual politics, one might feel a bit raw under that lash.
Jay
@Kay:
@Matt McIrvin:
what he said, you can’t raise a crop of mushrooms with out plenty of bull shit.
Twitter is segmented. People follow and retweet the people they follow, very few ever step out of the like minded box they inhabit, so,……
Jay
dr. luba
Has anyone noticed quickly disappearing tweets tonight? I tried to heart two quite clever tweets (Wilmer-themed), only to have them disappear? It is Twitter or the new reporting system?
Like one by TBogg about the “Iowa Red Rover Red Rover, Let Bernie’s Delegates Come Over Iowa Caucus and Butter Sculpture Smackdown.”
glory b
@Suzanne: Hey, how is the Pittsburgh move going? My suggestions for someone working in East Liberty and wanting to live close by: Shadyside, Squirrel Hill, Regent Square, Highland Park, and Friendship.
I don’t know your price range, there’s a pretty good variation there. I recall that you mentioned a Spanish immersion school, there is a Spanish magnet school in Shadyside.
Brandon
Iowa caucus lol embarrassing
.
stinger
@joel hanes: I’m wide open to discussions of how the nomination process should work and who should go first. As long as people can contribute mature comments and not gratuitous insults.
ziggy
@Jay:
That’s pretty bad, he’s really losing it.
Another Scott
@dr. luba: I haven’t noticed it tonight, but I’ve been surprised when what I thought were clever and fine LOLGOP tweets (seen via the web interface) suddenly disappear. I figured he just decided that he didn’t like the way it turned out.
Dunno.
Cheers,
Scott.
The Fat Kate Middleton
@Barbara: Yeah, just been lurking. Cancer’s in remission, but now my back’s gone all to hell (advanced disk degeneration). Anyway, I’m actually OK, but dealing with it takes a lot of time and effort. Thanks for asking.
janesays
…
WaterGirl
@stinger:
I’m all for that!
Steeplejack (phone)
@Jay:
Quoted story is from June 2017. Apparently they’ve been looking for a long time. Maybe we should send out a search party for them.
sanjeevs
@Jay: What a shock. Editor of a budget Breitbart turns out to be a lying piece of shit.