According to the headlines, AOC won (no surprise) and Eliot Engel lost (no big surprise) their primary challenges, Nate MacMurray lost the 27th CD special election, and Biden won the state.
But — there are 1.7 million absentee ballots left to count, and the counting won’t start until July 1. Most New Yorkers (me included) voted absentee for the primary.
So, I would say all of these results are provisional at best. I’ll also bet that the models used by CNN and others haven’t been revised to reflect this reality.
Citizen Alan
Am I correct in thinking there’s no Republican challenger in NY16? That’s the impression I got from my brief research, but I wanted to be sure.
download my app in the app store mistermix
@Citizen Alan: NY-16 is D+24, so whether or not there’s a challenger, it’s a safe seat.
Marcopolo
I’m just so pleased that last night voters sent not just the first gay AA man on his way to Congress but the first two!
They are Mondaire Jones NY-17 & Richie Torres NY-15.
A great night for progressives. As someone who gave (small amounts) to Jamaal Bowman (NY-16 with lots of absentee ballots to count) and Charles Booker I am also pretty happy about where they stand right now in their primaries, though if Booker wins the KY Sen nomination he will have a Mt. Everest to climb to beat McConnell in the general.
PsiFighter37
Engel really stepped on himself with his hot mic quote. He deserved to lose big, and it seems like he did. Will be interested to see what shakes out in Nita Lowey’s district (which is where I grew up; I also interned in her Westchester County office 15 years ago). I also hope that Ruben Diaz Sr. does not win; the dude is stuck with last-century social views and is openly contemplating voting for Trump…why would any Democrat vote for him? I know he’s got long-time name rec, but he’s well past his sell-by date. I think even his son (the current Bronx borough president) wants nothing to do with him, at least publicly.
Carolyn Maloney’s race (where I live now) is far closer than I thought it would be – Suraj Patel is a joke IMO; there’s no way he deserves to represent a huge chunk of Manhattan because he works in his family’s hotel business. That said, I have to think that even if she scrapes by, this will be her last rodeo…ending the night with a bare plurality at 41%, with lots of votes to count, is quite disheartening.
WereBear
A good reminder that one of the enemies of the vote by mail will be our own Village of Media Idiots, who love their horse race more than the country.
PsiFighter37
Also, I am not a fan of AOC, but I am glad she crushed Michelle Caruso-Cabrera. Having watched CNBC for years on end at work, she was plainly a GOP plant who only ran as a Democrat because of the district’s makeup.
Wyatt Salamanca
OT
File under Trump Hissy Fit About Upcoming Unflattering Book
Copy of Notice of Petition filed on June 23 by Robert Trump in Queens County (NY) Surrogate’s Court, to block Trump’s niece Mary Trump and publisher, Simon & Schuster, from proceeding with publication of Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World’s Most Dangerous Man
https://www.publishersweekly.com/binary-data/ARTICLE_ATTACHMENT/file/000/004/4408-1.pdf
Baud
I always assumed the AOC primary challenge would be a yawner, and I was right. But apparently some people took it seriously (not here).
Marcopolo
@PsiFighter37: Honestly, the Engel/Bowman contest looked pretty much like the AOC/Crowley race 2 years ago. District demographics have shifted since Engel’s first won in 1989 and it is now a majority minority population which looks like Bowman, not Engel. Engel also did not appear to be campaigning much at all. Whether that was taking a win for granted or just not being all that psyched about another term in Congress, who knows. Finally, I read a fair amount of reporting that in recent years (and certainly during the past few pandemic months) Engel had been spending a lot more time living in his Maryland house than back in the district. I was time for him to make way for a younger, more passionate & more liberal candidate who better represents the people of the district.
Btw, a few years ago I heard the line that change in an area’s political representation lags change in its demographics by a couple of decades. Seems to be true.
Baud
@Marcopolo: Interesting theory. Nixon started the conservative train 1968, but the GOP didn’t win the House until 1992, which is consistent with that timeline.
Marcopolo
So Nate Cohn, the NYT political reporter/numbers guy who oversaw the poll that dropped this morning:
has been responding to questions on twitter. I thought this was interesting:
Yesterday I was warning my friends that this would be the first prez poll this year to use tighter controls on who they believe will vote so it would probably be a lot closer than what we’ve been seeing. Or maybe not lol.
Of course we should still be out there working for all the candidates we support like we are 20 points behind.
germy
@Marcopolo:
germy
HRC, Cuomo, and Schumer all backed Engel?
Marcopolo
@Baud: Or you can just look at the entire South which was heavily D until the civil rights movement (cultural vs racial demographic shift). The shift to R representation didn’t complete until the early 90’s. I think WV is a great example of this currently. Manchin is the last D holdout there. Robert Byrd & Jay Rockefeller wouldn’t have a chance of winning in WV today.
Marcopolo
@germy: Keep in mind that all four of them have been involved together in D NY politics for decades. If you are a part of the political establishment you support (however lukewarmly) other members of the political establishment–so long as they are not horrifying a$$holes like King in IA.
WereBear
@Marcopolo: Also, after 30 years, wouldn’t the dude have some seniority clout? That IS a consideration, though this guy openly scorned constituent service.
Roger Moore
@Marcopolo:
Trump being down 14 points to Biden in a poll shouldn’t be that surprising; his approval rating in 538’s tracker is a net -14.
Miss Bianca
@Marcopolo:
Which is why I’m not super psyched about the prospect of his winning the primary, to be honest. It was looking like McGrath had a fighting chance against McConnell.
Also why I’m not super psyched about the prospect of Andrew Romanoff winning the primary against Hickenlooper here in CO, if that ends up happening. Hick was polling at 18 points over Cory Gardner. Romanoff? Jesus, his campaign doesn’t even seem to have done *internal* polling. So we got no way of gauging how he’d do. But he’s PROGRESSIVE, maaaannnn….
randy khan
@Marcopolo:
Cohn’s Twitter posts on this poll are pure gold. I particularly like this one:
Marcopolo
@WereBear: Engel was the chairperson of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs so he had a ton of clout. I can’t say I have much knowledge of the work that committee is currently doing but Engel doesn’t seem to have been a particularly active/aggressive Chair. Also, in terms of D politics he was a conservative hardliner, had supported the Iraq war, and had been pretty soft on what Israel has been doing vis a vis the Palestinians.
I’ve no idea how his office did in regards to constituent affairs.
Anya
I am so happy with the New York primary results. There should be no room for foreign policy reactionaries and war hawks in our party (definitely in blue states). Last night was a great night for progressives. I’ve maxed out to Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) because Eliot Engel’s foreign policy stands offends me to the core. Good riddance.
The old guard should be scared.
Baud
@Miss Bianca: What’s the polling look like for the primary? I saw that Hink got into some ethics trouble. I’d hate to lose a gettable seat.
satby
@Miss Bianca: Agree, as attractive as Booker seems to be as a person and candidate, McGrath was polling even or ahead of McConnell and getting rid of him is secondary only to getting rid of TraitorTot. I’m not in a gambling mood this year.
Anya
@germy: So did Nancy Pelosi, James Clyburn and Hakeem Jeffries. I don’t blame them. I think it’s okay if the party leaders back the incumbent. But I didn’t like that other prominent dems from other states backed either the challenger or the incumbent. People should leave these races to the locals.
Anya
@Miss Bianca: I agree with you. McGrath calling herself a “Trump Democrat” might be what dooms her candidacy. What a dumb and offensive thing to say.
Marcopolo
@Miss Bianca: So, yes, older polling had showed McGrath with a shot (long) against McConnell. More recent polling have her & Booker running similarly against Mitch. (Booker gets 38%, McGrath gets 33% against McConnell) Whether that is the result of Booker running a really good campaign (and being a very dynamic campaigner) or McGrath running a poor campaign (and being a poor campaigner) or both, I don’t know. As someone looking in from the outside (my knowledge of the race is from reading what folks in KY have written), it appears the only clear advantage McGrath brings to the race is the money she’s raised. Her only pitch seems to be “Ditch Mitch,” which honestly isn’t good enough in KY. Her gaffes around the Kavanaugh SC nom (she was for him then against him) & claiming McConnell wasn’t supportive enough of Trump (implying maybe that she would be?!?) have been damaging.
As for CO, Hickenlooper will probably win but he hasn’t done himself any favors. He should never have run for Prez, should not have poo pooed the idea of running for CO Senate while running for Prez (btw this will bite Bullock in MT as well), and he has some ethical issues that I don’t think he’s addressed very well.
Most candidates are flawed human beings (just like the rest of us). Campaigns show us how well (or not) they deal with those flaws.
Anya
@Baud: It gave AOC an opportunity to gloat.
PAM Dirac
@Marcopolo:
I am in complete agreement that there is no room for complacency, but I don’t think this is a very good way to avoid it. If you work hard and you are still 20 points behind, it seems to me that not only would you get discouraged, but you should be considering big changes to your losing strategy. I think it is better to acknowledge that the hard work is playing off and that more hard work is necessary, but has an excellent chance of finishing the job.
Miss Bianca
@Marcopolo: I don’t disagree with you about Hick’s missteps. I thought running for Prez was a bad move on his part, wishing he had declared for Senate all along. I know it left a bad taste in lots of CO Democrats’ mouths. (I know, because I got in battles with them over their bad-mouthing Hickenlooper. A bit of intraparty warfare that got into the Denver Post, which still leaves me seething. Dems have so fucking *little* message/party discipline. I’m in full-on “just win, baby” mode right now, so I guess I’ve veered away from “Progressive” to “Pragmatic” at a rate that would have been alarming to Younger Me.)
Jinchi
@Anya: I’m fine with AOC gloating when she defeats a Wall St backed former Republican, ‘small government, fiscal conservative’ candidate.
Anya
@Jinchi: Me too. I’ve rt’d all of her gloaty tweets. She earned that. Wall Street is full of dumb and arrogant assholes. They thought she would lose. Their attention made her more of a political powerhouse.
rikyrah
is this number of mail ballots unusual for NY?
rikyrah
@Marcopolo:
Booker was a waste of phucking time. His win would mean that Moscow Mitch returns to the Senate.
Marcopolo
@rikyrah: Your comment/reply here is a waste of time.
If McGrath can’t beat Booker in the primary (all the votes still need to be counted btw) she certainly can’t beat McConnell in the general. I’ve been following the primary somewhat closely for about a month (mainstream reporting, local political reporting) and haven’t seen any Kentuckians mention anything positive about McGrath other than she’s raised a lot of money.
I’m curious as to whether you’ve spent any time at all looking at how Booker & McGrath have been running their campaigns? Speaking generally, you are better than this comment, which seems to assume McGrath has a better chance of beating McConnell.
This is a waste of time? This is a waste of time? Give me a phucking break.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Have all the mail-in ballots been counted?
J R in WV
@rikyrah:
We can’t know that, because the circumstances of this election are unique. Never had a plague during an election with vote by mail available before.
Good question, no possible answer this election cycle.
J R in WV
@schrodingers_cat:
IIRC I heard/read somewhere that they don’t plan to start until July 1st, to allow all the ballots to move through the mail system to the clerks’s offices. Don’t take this to the bank, they won’t cash it, but what I recall from a news show somewhere. Makes sense, tho.
rikyrah
@Marcopolo:
I don’t trust any of those DSA folks. Booker is a feel good that will go nowhere.
A candidate like Manchin will be more likely to win in Kentucky.
Sure, feel good about Booker, and then lose to Moscow Mitch.
I already said. I don’t give two shyts if McGrath turned out to be another Manchin. As long as she beat Moscow Mitch, she’d be good for me for 99% of the next 6 years.
rikyrah
@Marcopolo:
Someone wrote this, and it sums my feelings perfectly:
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Bernie lost deeply liberal NY (67-19)?
Without the Hillary hate to feed the crowds his campaign never got off the ground.
Death Panel Truck
@Baud: The GOP didn’t win the House until 1994, when Newt Gingrich took out his Contract on America. The GOP gained 54 House seats and nine in the Senate.
PJ
@rikyrah:
@J R in WV: Yes, it’s unusual. Normally, absentee (mail-in) ballots are available only if you have a legitimate excuse why you can’t show up to the polls, which is limited to certain categories (out-of-town, personal illness, etc.) This year, for the first time, you could request an absentee ballot if you had a fear of getting the coronavirus from voting in person. Since that’s legit for pretty much everyone, the number of people requesting absentee ballots is way up. As of two weeks ago, statewide, the number of requests for absentee ballots was more than 10 times normal, and in NYC, more than twenty times normal. In the two weeks leading up to the election, those numbers will have gone up as well.
Absentee ballots can’t be counted until 8 days after the election, so the final tally probably won’t be known for close to two weeks.
There will be an additional problem in that many people who requested absentee ballots apparently never received them. They could still vote in person, but this does not bode well for the general election in November.
PJ
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch: Hillary also crushed Bernie in NY by 16 points, and that was when there was still an actual competitive race.
Another Scott
@Anya:
+1
I’ve tried to learn from IronStache’s experience that there’s nothing wrong with letting a primary play out and then supporting the nominee. Or, as is sometimes said in software circles, “Premature optimization is the root of all evil.”
Yeah, there are exceptions (like when a bazillionaire tries to buy the nomination over a strong Democrat who has paid their bills), but letting the actual Democratic voters decide before the big political organizations weigh in has a lot of value.
Cheers,
Scott.