Once upon a time, between 2016 and 2018, I got it wrong. On the front page and in the comments. Over and over and over again. While I recognized that Trump had around a 30% chance of winning in 2016, I thought it unlikely to happen. Unfortunately, the antiquated relic know as the Electoral College went off as it is occasionally wont to do.
What I really got wrong, however, is just how little resiliency our political systems and structures actually had to withstand what we all lived through. I made that mistake because I fell back on what I learned in my education and training as a political scientist, as well as my experience with career civil servants during my time serving on civilian mobilization orders with the Army and DOD. Specifically, that it is exceedingly difficult to overcome then inertia that is a career civil servant.
As a result, I convinced myself that our system was stronger than it was and would hold more firmly against Trump, his appointees, and their agenda. I overestimated what Robert Mueller would do, underestimated what Trump’s appointees, employees, family members, campaign officials, Republican elected and party officials, and surrogates would do to undermine Mueller’s investigation. And I told that to all of you in front page posts and in the comments. I was wrong. And a lot of you suffered as a result of my incorrect assurances.
I won’t make the same mistake twice.
I failed as a front pager between 20-6 and 2018. Instead of helping to make you all better informed and smarter, I made you dumber. I gave you false hope. I helped to make things worse.
Maybe we’ll get really, really lucky and everything will break just right and we’ll thread the needle again in November 2022 and November 2024 the way we did in November 2020. But right n0w Republican controlled state legislatures are doing everything they can to ensure that does not happen. That it doesn’t matter how many voters are registered or mobilized through changing the law to suppress the votes or make them irrelevant by allowing state legislatures to substitute their preferences for the actual will of the voters. That through even more extreme gerrymanders, these elected officials will even more precisely pick their voters rather than allowing the voters to pick their elected representatives. We are quickly regressing to how the US functioned at the state level prior to the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act passed and the Supreme Court took the Reconstruction amendments seriously.
I was not sufficiently skeptical and paranoid in 2016, 2017, and into 2018. I won’t make that mistake again.
I have no idea how this story ends, though as you all know, I’m not particularly bullish about the potential outcomes, so to be continued…
Open thread!
Medium Cool with BGinCHI – Christmas Movies
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to bed. It’s an open thread. Talk about whatever you want.
Chetan Murthy
Adam,
I know you’re a professional, so you beat yourself up over your mistakes. I do in my area of expertise, too. But as a civilian in your area, I appreciate your work to educate us all. I remember reading the early “The Maskirovka Slips” posts, and count myself lucky to have you as a teacher.
There’s a question that I cannot answer, and that has significant relevance to my future decisions. Perhaps you have thoughts on it: How will we be able to tell if our state government is going to stand up and defend us? What can we do to encourage our state government to start planning (publicly) for resistance? I ask this because for sure, I don’t believe in being the lone nut with the armory of AR-15 rifles. I believe in government, and if our government is going to stand and resist, so that we can stand with it, then I can imagine sticking around in America.
But if not, then I have to plan to leave. And right now, that’s what seems the obvious outcome: plan to leave, because the state (of California) won’t stand up and resist.
I don’t have any way of figuring out whether that’s right or not. So if you had any advice, I sure would appreciate it. I don’t want to run away from America: I came here when I was four years old, so I have no real conscious memories of anywhere else. But I don’t see the use of becoming cannon fodder for Fascists in some pointless nonviolent demonstration that they’ll laugh at, as they gun us down.
MisterForkbeard
“…so you’re saying there’s a chance.”
Dumb and Dumber, as always, remains applicable to life in the Worst Timeline. ;)
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
Brady is toast
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
As in Tom Brady?
Suzanne
So what’s the strategy? We leave the country? Liberals all move to the west coast or the northeast and prepare to secede?
Tata
If you listen to what Black women are saying, and lot of them because they have somewhat different opinions, you will have a lot better idea of what is likely to happen. Listen, don’t argue, vote like a Black woman.
Eljai
@MisterForkbeard: ? As long as there’s a chance, I’ll take it.
Trying to decide which states to adopt for Senate races. I think I’ll start with Wisconsin & Florida.
joel hanes
Adam, in your defense:
You often, I thought, expressed your confidence that the senior officer corps, particularly officers you’d known and worked with, would follow the law and do the right thing. I sometimes thought that personal acquaintance had made you too fond.
Trump put them to the test: demanded that they break posse comitatus for his Lafayette Square photo op with the Bible, replaced much of the DoD civilian leadership with fash-wannabes, more.
The retired officers stepped up and wrote that very important letter. The serving officers subsequently refused to support a coup. The National Guard, when finally called up, went to work on the side of democracy.
This saved the nation.
Ohio Mom
In my more optimistic moments, I imagine future middle school students being taught that since our country withstood Trumpism, See how wonderful our country is!
Because let’s face it, that’s the depth of most public school history.
I don’t know what Adam could have told us that would have prepared us for Trump, or how we would have prepared. As it was, I think we pivoted pretty well as citizens.
I know all about gerrymandering, Ohio has long been gerrymandered. We voted to end gerrymandering and we are being ignored and have been presented an even worse map.
I don’t know where I am going with all this. Wishing you sweet dreams Adam.
Another Scott
AnnenbergClassroom:
The actual text of the voting rights bills working their way through Congress could (and ideally should) provide some clarity to this. But a plain reading is that state legislatures cannot nullify the votes of the voters – that’s not a feature of a Republican form of government.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
@Suzanne: secede and join Canada
Wyatt Salamanca
Adam, take a number. I’ll never forget how much Brian Williams kept building him up throughout his investigation always referring to him as Robert Swan Mueller and how crestfallen he was when the investigation ended and Trump had not been caught dead to rights.
Whatever your failings, they pale in comparison to the 62,984,828 morons who voted for Trump in 2016 and the 74,216,154 morons who voted for him in 2020. Burning in Hell for eternity simply feels like too lenient a punishment for any asshole who voted for Trump.
Hopefully, Trump’s 2024 aspirations will either get derailed by an indictment from Tish James or Cy Vance or a heart attack or stroke will take him out.
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Just had the worst game of his career
Mallard Filmore
The only hope I see is if the DOJ can be prodded into arresting the insurrectionists, from Trump down. They might also have to give some domestic communications that they are not supposed to collect to a foreign government and have them leak it.
Two weeks ago I was convinced that if the GOP retakes power, China was going to win. Then I bumped into a couple of YouTube channels that are obviously anti-CCP, with videos about some massive financial problems brewing in China.
Yutsano
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch: Sshhh…let me enjoy Sweet Sweet Brady Tears©
VOR
Back in 2015-16 when Trump was making noises about running I confidently told people it wasn’t serious. He’ll never reveal his financial information, I said. Turns I was both right and wrong. He never revealed his taxes and lack of transparency didn’t stop him. That showed many of the guardrails are just norms, traditions, customs. And Trump’s super power is his inability to feel shame so he ran right through those guardrails. Things which actually had legal mechanisms turned out to be toothless in the face of a political party unbothered by hypocrisy and double standards.
SFAW
Adam –
I’m amazed that the Anti-Eeyore Brigade hasn’t (so far) come down on you like the proverbial ton of brickbats.
Outside of that: you seem to feel that you screwed up. Maybe so, but if that’s the worst mistake you ever made, you’re ahead of the game.
SFAW
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Yes. First time he’s been shut out in 15 years, apparently.
Belichick called up Sean Payton to thank/congratulate him. [No, not really, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he did.]
Emerald
@VOR: But also, our media never held him to account. The plain, obvious and unashamed bias of the political media in this country has become one of the worst dangers we face.
susanna
Thank you, Adam. I look forward to your assesments whether they’re liked by me or not, and evaluated opinions on what to do is my request. The how would make for a good topic..
I believe the reaction to evil or any problem sets an individual’s starting place for finding their solution. We need massive infomation, organization and ideas to form strategies, and this will often give inner strength and positivity formed from choosing our best way to do this task.
And every plan must have a backup, or emergency. Appreciation to you for the unwanted heads up this early, it helps to do the best we can, and time often helps that.
M. Bouffant
“how the US functioned at the state level prior to the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act”
The famed Laboratories of (Anti-)Democracy.
SFAW
@Mallard Filmore:
They’re going to win, no matter whether the Rethugs (officially) retakes power. Until the GOPoT is wiped out, they’ll continue to (try to) destroy America, making it that much easier for China to win.
Yutsano
@Mallard Filmore: Al Jazeera says it’s bad. They’re a relatively more objective source. It’s really hard to say what happens from here but it is possible that the commodities drag slows everything down. That could lead to disaster for the Chinese Communist Party.
(Where’s YY Sima-Quan? Some perspective from the inside would help.)
SFAW
@Emerald:
The media were too busy warning us of the overarching dangers of a(n unhacked) private e-mail server in Chautauqua or somewhere like that, so you need to cut them a little slack.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch:
But he’s the GOAT!1!1 /s
Xantar
I for one have never had a problem with your posts until the most recent one which seemed to have no point other than to sarcastically tell us, “I told you so.” There were already two other threads about the same subject. You’ve yet to tell us why you felt that was necessary.
And I don’t expect an answer here either, so I’m going to bed.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@SFAW:
Honestly, what does “winning” even really mean if climate change is catastrophic enough? The flooding in China this past year has shown they’re not immune to the dangers.
And don’t get me started on how delusional Putin is, thinking that the opening of the Artic will actually be a good thing for Russia. Newsflash, spook, if that happens than it likely means much of the equator will be uninhabitable for humans, which includes one of the most populous and largest economies on the planet: India. Oh, but I’m sure the aging, failed petro state will totally come out on top and won’t collapse like a house of cards.
I’m beginning to think he’ll live long enough to see it happen
Chetan Murthy
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Goku, I forget: are you a nurse ?
Archon
The scariest part about this whole ordeal was I used to think conservatives thought they were the good guys in this story but now I realize they don’t care about good or bad they only about winning.
We are in for a bumpy road ahead with people who believe the ends justifies the means in the name of power.
oldster
Adam, you did your best and you made an honest mistake.
Seriously: anyone can write “won’t” by mistake for “wont” — esp if dictating. Hell, you may have typed the right one, and been betrayed by auto-carrot.
So, don’t beat yourself up. It’s just a spare apostrophe. Everyone understood what you meant, and most people probably didn’t notice.
There’s always tomorrow.
Mike in Pasadena
You did not make mistakes alone, if any mistakes were made.
Ladyracterinok
@Suzanne:
So what are we living in places like Oklahoma supposed to do?n
Many of us in red states have no money to move or are too old to move etc.
Antonius
Extreme cynicism gives one either pleasant surprises or the satisfaction of correct prediction.
UncleEbeneezer
@Xantar: This. All the valid points could be made without the condescending tone.
Also, sometimes it’s better to just say nothing at all. People are rightfully frustrated, exhausted and terrified right now so sarcasm that may come across as gleeful end zone-dancing, might not be the best idea. These are challenges of communication in extremely difficult times.
Cermet
Ridiculous to think anyone would have expected that so many in office would be so power mad, and an extremely large segment of our population so racist that tRump would manage to win – barely; most ridiculous of all was how his stupidity and racism would so easily destroy all major aspects of our democracy – the inferior (aka supreme) court and most strange of all, the entire media. Never realized just how paper thin and weak all of our democracy was – superficial and not barely skin deep on a huge body of lies, racism and prejudice. It was all there to see once the scales fell from our eyes – the slave based constitution, the extremely racist history, the white washing of said history and a court system that is soaked in crimes against blacks and browns. – ignoring the extreme economic/educational system racism baked in.
Rump is a symptom, not the disease – our system and significant percentage of the population is the cause of the sickness.
Brantl
It’s either wont to do or want to do, it isn’t won’t to do. I don’t actually know which is right, but I know what’s up there is wrong.
Wvng
@Ladyracterinok: “Many of us in red states have no money to move or are too old to move etc.” For me, it isn’t states as much as it is rural versus urban. I live in rural WV, in what used to be a “blue” county. It is now red as red can be. When I consider moving the question is “to where.” I have no desire to live in a city, and ALL of rural America is just as red as where I live now.
As for Adam’s deeply frustrated mea culpa, please don’t beat yourself up. Your posts always come from a deep well of expertise and experience and have always been very informative. It’s just that sometimes expertise doesn’t make you prescient. We just watched the real time example of the brilliant public health community get it wrong, for months and at great human cost, that covid spread mostly by droplets on surfaces, rather than as an aerosol.
When something is new, it’s new, and it takes time to understand it. Trump was something new, and the impact of such a force on the behaviors of an entire political party take time to understand.
The Oracle of Solace
The Mueller Report was actually pretty damning. I was dismayed that nobody in the media seemed to care about its contents, and that Democratic leaders didn’t seem up for a fight. Democratic leadership still doesn’t seem interested in a fight, but appears to be putting all their chips on electioneering. I’m generally a positive person, a giver of solace to others less sanguine, but my ability to muster optimism is waning in the face of GOP aggression and media passivity.
Spain is looking pretty nice as a retirement destination.
trnc
I have a fun question. Since Texas SB 8 took a chainsaw to the idea of standing in civil suits and SCOTUS has upheld it, what’s to stop anyone from suing anyone else for anything and pointing to the SC decision when the question of standing comes up?
Chris Johnson
I can’t get past the fact that, if Adam was really working for the other side and actively fighting us, he would be saying and doing exactly what he is saying and doing.
You seize any opportunity, particularly when things are up in the air, to make the loudest possible case that all is lost and everyone should surrender or flee. Immediately, before anything else happens that might cast doubt on your case.
Because it is a PROPAGANDA war, and if you can give people an intense sense of despair, that feeling’s gonna stick with them even if they get bailed out in some sense, or things don’t prove to be the way you’re hinting at.
Adam is painting apocalyptic pictures, without any concept of fight-back, mutual aid, the normal interplay of how reality works. Adam is acknowledging the suicidal kamikaze desperation of the opposition without once referring to or thinking about the WHY of why they’re like that: the picture he’s painting is of demonic martyrs to fascism but he’s painting them like strong, coordinated, healthy opponents when they are coming apart in big chunks and dying at a staggering rate compared to us.
I get that they are desperate and unrestrained. They’re also gravely wounded in a bunch of ways, and being run out of Russia which is also wounded in a number of ways.
Don’t be a dumbass. It ain’t like Republicans have a monopoly on desperate heroic last stands… and sometimes, those are happening because they are seriously fucked in other ways. Their people can’t PLAN. They’re in thrall to a personality cult run out of Russia, and kept in line with guilt and fear. If they even get close to pulling off a fascist coup it will be a hollow, broken, hated thing and this is a fuck of a hard country to pacify or keep in check.
Don’t be a dumbass, even if you are a traitor and working for the other side. Some people see through your noise and bluster. Have some situational assessment for once.
J R in WV
@Chris Johnson:
I once had you right where you belong, and then made the fateful mistake of removing you from the pie safe. No more!
I won’t read your amazingly self-centered bullshit nonsense ever again.
Geminid
@Chris Johnson: Well, I don’t see any evidence that Mr. Silverman is working for the other side, and a lot of evidence that he is on the right side.
But I am curious. Are you familiar with @LizBurgh, @Leftsplintered, or @JusticeDemWatch? They are doing some interesting research into the Justice Democrats, and have recently started focusing on the Momentum Training Institute. You might be interested.
Mr. Longform
Dude – lighten up on yourself. Not anticipating the off-the-charts level of irrationality that is the right/authoritarian/whiteguy half of this country is not a moral failing. A moral failing is the willingness to go along with that as a way to gain power, and that is the GOP. How we break that up and make a new system is the challenge.
tam1MI
@Suzanne: So what’s the strategy?
Savvy Adam doesn’t want you to have a strategy. He wants you to fall into despair and depression and surrender. Suicide would be a nice bonus.
The Castle
Adam, even though I am a longtime mostly-lurker, I value this blog a lot and your posts in particular. You have a point of view and skill set that is quite different from the other posters and is greatly appreciated. I have learned so much from this blog in the last 15 years because of the (reasonably) high quality of the posters and commenters. I don’t completely understand the hate being directed your way other than some folks don’t want to hear the hard truth, or at least your informed opinion. People who are worried about “tone” sound too much, for my taste, like the pearl-clutching totebaggers we mock around here. Gawd, who cares? Let’s battle the real enemies rather than having a circular firing squad. The structural barriers for Democrats are really high right now. Democrats have won 7 of the last 8 Presidential popular votes – something that has never happened before in American history! – and instead of electoral dominance, we’re in a very different place. I think your suggestion that we are close to returning to the pre-Civil rights era in the political arena is an apt one. I think it’s useful to think about how we moved beyond that era in the past, plus consider how the electorate is more liberal now than it was in say, 1960. So you made mistakes; at least you’re honest enough to admit that and probe why these mistakes were made. I am touched that you worry that your analysis let us down – you did the best you could with the information we had at the moment. And thank you for that.
Chris Johnson
@Geminid: Ya know, I don’t trust anybody, by now.
Adam needs to be called out for providing aid and comfort to the enemy, painting them as uniquely powerful and destined for tyranny. I absolutely don’t get how he’s ramped up in the way he has. Does he not see the weakness in their ranks, the fundamental problems with what they’re trying to impose?
That said there are a number of nyms I’m not comfortable with lining up alongside, and nyms I’m OK with whom I’ve pissed off. The best position for someone trying to do propaganda damage is someone trusted, an insider, and our trolls don’t have the level of trust Adam has.
I think it’s pretty damn funny to be getting a lot of blowback for demanding, nay insisting, that we are NOT fucked. Right now we are just looking at how big of a crater the Republicans leave when they hit bottom. If they’re able to seize any power that only means it’ll be a bigger war with ’em when it breaks into the open. Some nyms I don’t like are panting for just that opportunity.
I think it’s all staged, out of Russia, and has succeeded beyond Vlad’s wildest imaginations. And it’s in the final stages before implosion, and being managed to cause maximum damage. And I’m not happy with anybody aiding that effort to cause real and psychological damage to Americans on behalf of our enemies. And I’m extra pissed at anyone in a position of trust, doing it.
We refuse to be fucked. ‘Nevertheless, she persisted’. (a she, who is currently surviving COVID, and is vaxxed)
StringOnAStick
@The Castle: What I detected in Adam’s comment last night was some deep anger at himself, and post tells me as feeling that. Experts who care hate being wrong and will beat themselves up over it.
We’re in a very blue state (Oregon) but near the crazy rural areas and we’re too old to immigrate; once you are past 50 no one wants you. I’m really wishing we’d moved to Canada like we strongly considered during Chimpy’s reign. The past is done and I can’t change it, so we will have to stay and fight.