Saw this piece on CNNMoney by an economist at UCSD, and I’ve read it twice now, and can not figure out what his point is. The closest I can come to is “Despite being really important, I don’t get much mail anymore so let’s loot their pension to pay for current operating expenses.”
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General Stuck
Good gawd no. I only wade into economics to spout happy nonsense for political reasons. Not a chance for navel gazing
Sarah Proud and Tall
Although I admit I fell asleep three times while reading the article, I think your summary of its content is pretty accurate.
jl
James Hamilton is a good econometrician. His general position would be Keynesian liberal with some pronounced general centrist and fiscally conservative streaks. IRRC, he thought the stimulus should have been bigger, was worried about monetary policy being inflationary if the Fed could not control its bigger balance sheet, but has changed his mind about that.
This piece has no economic or stat analysis in it that I can see.
It is not clearly written. Too many clauses and double negatives.
As I read it, he is saying that the pension benefits are more important and the the USPS should not be allowed to move them to use for current employees health care costs.
You people think I read it right?
scav
well, given that he writes “I have not investigated details behind the latter argument.” at one point and seems to be drawing conclusions about the national debt ceiling rather than anything involving the USPS and its pensions, I think he had this spreadsheet of data sitting around, an agenda and some free space to fill at CNN.
Suffern ACE
I read it. I can not understand it. He receives more e-mail now than he ever did letters. He clearly doesn’t understand what exactly the post office is trying to do and therefore isn’t very clear about what his opinion is. Maybe because he doesn’t get as many letters as he used to, he is out of practice making himself clear when he has to write more than a few sentences.
khead
Let him teach at a campus in a rural area and see what he says.
He’d be crying like my former peeps in no time.
4tehlulz
>Someone Make Sense of This
Someone had a deadline and an incompetent editor.
Also, fuck mailmen, because they’re just like bankers.
gex
@scav: Why do so many economists, conservatives, and libertarians refuse to do their homework, *admit it*, then go on to draw conclusions anyhow?
4tehlulz
@gex: If I could get away with it, I’d do it all the time too.
jl
The bit about his declining mail volume is not much evidence of anything.
I read that USPS makes most of its money with business mail. Wonder how you separate irreversible rate of decline in their business with hit from recession?
How many people here saw a sudden and large drop and sustained off in junk and business mail since the panic?
Also, editor probably wrote the title, which doesn’t have much to do with the issue.
Anyway, Hamilton’s stat stuff is good to read, and much clearer.
Cole should not worry too much.
Edit: Should have written that Cole should not get too worked up over this column, but putting it that way, it is obviously useless advice.
Posting some pet pics would be soothing and make him feel much much better.
Amanda in the South Bay
All I can say is-just go look at the downtown Mountain View post office on any given weekday. The lines there (excluding the ever long passport line) are always long-people wanting to mail packages. And, the banks of PO boxes are pretty big. All this in a city of roughly 100K right smack dab in the middle of Silicon Valley.
What world is this prof living in?
arguingwithsignposts
Seems to be another attack on the commitments people made in the past – oh, we can’t afford to pay those commitments now. Bondholders take precedent. Or something to that effect.
Linda Featheringill
FWIW, from the postal workers union site:
http://www.apwu.org/news/nsb/2011/nsb10-110517-hearing-senate.htm
scav
@Suffern ACE:
Maybe twitter is to writing what powerpoint is to cognitive style.
Lolis
This is not the behavior of someone on vaction. You are not doing it right.
Benjamin Cisco
Shorter summation:
__
“ME ME ME MINE MINE MINE DOWN DOWN DOWN!”
/Daffy Duck
khead
@Benjamin Cisco:
HASSAN CHOP!
gex
@4tehlulz: If you were really like that, you’d be one of them. I smell a joke and not an actual reflection of you as a person.
PurpleGirl
@Lolis: It is typical John Cole behavior — state that blogging will stop or be reduced because [fill in reason] and then produce a slew of posts.
JC: More pet pics, please.
gex
@khead: “HO! HA HA! GUARD! TURN! PARRY! DODGE! SPIN! HA! THRUST!” *WHACK*
khead
@gex:
Actually, it’s a buck-and-quarter, quarter staff – but I’m not telling him that.
Also, yoikes and away.
khead
Heh. Tried to edit but denied. LOL
jl
@PurpleGirl:
I need to get a another dig in at Cole. Since he has not provided enough pet pics lately.
And has not posted at all on much more important issue that brought up earlier: what Balloon Juice pet gear will Kay wear to the convention?
I forgot my dig at Cole now. Damn. I think it was this post was as important as the CNN column. But Cole has announced brief bloggin hiatus, so something tells him he needs to get in his quota of posts.
PeakVT
If you want to give the Professor a piece of your mind, here’s the post on his blog.
cthulhu
I didn’t read the article but I have heard that one of the things that is a bit odd about the USPS is that, due to long-time ago Congressional intervention, the USPS has ended up with a decent surplus on their employee benefit-side while their operations side continually deals with losses; they legally can’t shift the surplus to cover the loss. And, unlike private carriers, they can’t simply raise rates to a level to compensate. (Note: I’d be perfectly fine with postage increases that rationally fit the service provided, which in my opinion is quite good overall). Now, of course, I am suspicious in that, these days, a pension fund that has exactly enough money to meet obligations is considered an extravagance because the model in the private sector is to way underfund retirement plans by “borrowing” the money for other uses. Still maybe this is the basis of his argument: as the USPS is required to basically self-fund as a “business”, it should be given some tools that the private sector uses, albeit often poorly, to weather changes in the business model (e.g., declining use of snail mail).
Suffern ACE
@PeakVT: “You! Organize your thoughts better! Or else.”
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
his analysis is that the postal service is dying business.
he is concerned that the postal service management and union want to short the expected contribution to their pension obligations this year. he is also concerned that this is a slippery slope to raiding the pension fund,for medical insurance expenses. also that is being sold as over-funded, or at least, over contributed(to justify not making the contribution this year), in a way that rhymes with many of our corporate crises such as the auto-industry, where the unions are blamed, and summarily gutted.
intersting points, perhaps, but lacking specific knowledge
to know how valid his concerns are.
Jeffro
Speaking of public services under fire, and privatization underperforming…
ttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/19/us/19prisons.html?_r=1&hp
Hard to believe that for-profit prisons cost more than ‘regular’ ones, isn’t it?
El Cid
How about we let the USPS make a profit, as it’s doing what no private carrier can or is willing to do?
But, oh no, that would be using the fedrul gubmit to crush the FREEMAHKIT private innovators who charge you $5.00 to mail a letter, while the USPS is limited to only charging the amount necessary to avoid a profit, which currently is 44 cents.
Yeah.
Let fucking UPS or Fedex pick up and carry your little wrapped up piece of paper anywhere in the country in a few days for less than half a dollar.
bryanD
“Someone Make Sense of This”
The debt ceiling has penned O in.
Obama is stuck “at home” with his base.
He is molesting his base now.
Barb (formerly Gex)
@khead: I wonder. How do they feel about the deficit and governmental waste? Generally speaking that is.
Barb (formerly Gex)
@El Cid: I’m more than happy to let “real” Americans in rural areas politic their way into paying through the nose for postal service.
It doesn’t cost the postal service nearly as much per customer to deliver in cities or even suburbs. If they want to not have this soshalist system whereby soshalist people in blue cities subsidize them, fine by me.
My apologies to non-real Americans who also live in rural areas. But the idea that government does do some things well needs to be shoved in their neighbors’ faces.
cckids
@Barb (formerly Gex): This. Also, re: his bitching about his mail not being as exciting anymore; why is that the Post Office’s fault? Are they not delivering what they are paid to deliver? Should personal acquaintances & business contacts be mandated to only use the Post Office rather than email? Not sure that is a true conservative point of view.
Bill H.
Oh for God’s sake, it’s from UCSD. These professors go to rock concerts and are shocked, shocked I tell you, to discover that someone is smoking pot. They then write outraged letters to the editor about why did not a SWAT unit come in and take down the pot smokers. One of them said that profiteering should be legal, because no one would take supplies to disaster areas if they could not sell them at a profit. Then one wrote in outrage because an outdoor concert advertisement said “no chairs” and the security was allowing beach chairs, the kind with no legs. Nobody with any sense pays attention to the nutbag professors at UCSD.
The Quiet One
Simply put – the only problem with the USPS is the same problem we have with Social Security: those stupid fuckers in Congress.
They both function perfectly well – but need minor fixes *now* to prevent major problems decades from now.
TenguPhule
Destruction of all benefits of civilization in favor of gouging the highest bidder is a feature, not a bug, of the Republican Teabaggers.
Barry
@gex: “Why do so many economists, conservatives, and libertarians refuse to do their homework, admit it, then go on to draw conclusions anyhow?”
Because failure never bites them in the @ss. Endorse dishonest policies at CATO, Heritage, AEI, etc., and their catastrophic failures don’t cost them either their jobs or a good night’s sleep. Economists, of course are paid corporate shills and/or tenured (socialistic!!!!!) professors, who get to watch from the stands as everybody else fights in the arena.
Conservatives might take hits, but they just blame it all on Evul Librulz, ’cause their preachers (secular and religious) tell them that.
ChrisS
I’d just settle for massive tax increases on the wealthy to pay back all the money they’ve stolen from social security.
God, I’m so fuckin depressed. The tea tards and GOP are hellbent on cutting the lines on the social safety net while the economy is teetering on the edge of recession – again. Oil/gas prices are chewing up whatever excess cash working families had and commodities continue to inch higher esulting in higher costs for everything. Most of the states and local governments are holding back from completely gutting budgets by raiding their rainy day funds. As soon as those schools and governments start laying off workers and canceling infrastructure investments the whole fucking thing is going to hell.
And then social security and medicare will be gone. Poof.
liberal
@Amanda in the South Bay:
The world I live in: first class mail is dying because of the Internet.
Carol from CO
I agree with 4tehlutz that is is poorly written to a deadline, probably and in need of an editor, but I think he made a good point in his last paragraph when he wrote:
He’s pointing out the truly ridiculous debt-ceiling showboating going on.
Edit: It makes sense except for the part about the postal pension funding. I skipped over that when I first read it. Asking for a thoughtful discussion about what current obligations are before calling for spending cuts makes a lot of sense.