Predictably enough, the Spector defection has given rise to a lot of speculating about the future of the Republican party. Getting down to brass tacks, Steve Benen finds yet another poll indicating that the percentage of Americans who call themselves Republicans is at a historic low.
Also predictably, Adam Nagourney lets the Meet the Press wing of the party have the last word in the debate over what to do next. In fairness, Huckleberry Hound makes a lot of sense when he says:
Do you really believe that we lost 18-to-34-year-olds by 19 percent, or we lost Hispanic voters, because we are not conservative enough? No. This is a ridiculous line of thought.
That’s the real bottom line. Unless the Republican finds a way to clone Lou Dobbs on a mass scale, and quickly, there just won’t be enough cranky white bastards to build a coalition around. Of course, that’s not really relevant to a party that doesn’t think it’s becoming less popular, just that their audience is being more selective. Meghan McCain can talk all she wants to about loosening up on social issues, but here’s the stark reality (from Ben Smith and Jon Martin):
The party will be shaped most clearly, however, when its presidential hopefuls begin their early state pilgrimages after the 2010 midterms. And they’re unlikely to emerge convinced that courting gay and Hispanic voters, in particular, is politically saleable within their parties.
“John McCain found out the hard way that being where he was not an asset,” Reed recalled of last year’s presidential primary, noting that the eventual nominee either shifted or downplayed some of his unpopular stances, including on immigration.
A presidential candidate’s arrival in an Iowa or South Carolina, Reed noted with a chuckle, offers “what I like to refer to as ‘a dramatically clarifying experience.’”
Expect to see a lot of hot air from “wise moderates” like Lindsay Graham and Olympia Snowe as the Republican party exits stage right. It’s Ralph Reed’s party, they’re just living in it.