Quick housekeeping note: It’s been a long day and most of the news, which has nothing to do with Ukraine, has been bad and it is going to get worse. So tonight’s update is going to be on the shorter side.
Today is Yom HaShoa, Holocaust Remembrance Day. This is different than the International Holocaust Remembrance Day, which is in January on the date of the beginning of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising. Yom HaShoa is the week after the 7th day of Passover. Given what is happening in Israel and Gaza, this year’s Yom HaShoa is especially tragic and another example that far too many have learned the wrong lessons from the Holocaust and its aftermath.
There is a bit of good news. Rosie went to her oncology appointment today. The oncology vet did a pre-treatment exam, was pleased enough with her progress since she saw her last week to go ahead and do the chemo treatment today. The oncologist says she’s at 80% remission after two treatments and three weeks of the accompanying prednisone. To try to avoid the really bad side effects, Rosie got a low dose of today’s chemo. As I’ve written the oncology vet is treating Rosie as much as she’s treating the lymphoma.
The butcher’s bill from Russia’s Orthodox Easter attack on Kharkiv.
Russia targeted Monachynivka village near Kupyansk with a deadly 1.5-ton aerial bomb, leveling the whole street. It's the first time such weapons were used. Elderly woman killed. FAB was equipped with a gliding module allowing it to maneuver post-launch.@serhii_bolvinov pic.twitter.com/lqkQCtb9u5
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 6, 2024
Only yesterday, the once tranquil residence of an 88-year-old woman in the Kupiansk district of Kharkiv Oblast was reduced to ruins when russian troops dropped an air bomb. The house was destroyed, burying the woman beneath its rubble. pic.twitter.com/LSYTXT9dyT
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 6, 2024
And from Sumy Oblast:
⚡️ Russian troops shelled the village of Uhroidy in Sumy Oblast on May 6, injuring three people, including two children, Suspilne reported, citing Iryna Yukhta, a secretary of the Krasnopillia village council.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 6, 2024
An Ukrenergo high-voltage facility was among the civil infrastructure damaged in Russia's mass missile and drone attack on Sumy Oblast overnight on May 6.https://t.co/OMchupOaQw
— The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) May 6, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Political Decisions Must Be Followed by Real Logistics – the Actual Receipt of Weapons by Our Warriors – Address by the President
6 May 2024 – 19:54
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
I’ve just held a meeting of the Staff. First, the frontline. The report by the Commander-in-Chief – he was on the frontline, directly in the brigades. He reported on the key challenges and needs. We are getting ready. There was also a report on our own production of weapons and manning of our brigades. We are doing our best to provide more weapons for our warriors. We also discussed the supply from our partners – the delivery time and the possibility to speed up the actual receipt of weapons and shells from our partners. In reality. Political decisions must be followed by real logistics – the actual receipt of weapons by our warriors. All those involved must now work 24/7 with partners, including the United States.
Today I was honored to congratulate our infantry warriors on their professional day. This is the backbone of our Armed Forces of Ukraine – these are the units that, through their strength, actions, and resilience, determine whose flag is on the ground. And I thank each of our warriors and combat brigades for doing their best to destroy the enemy and defend Ukraine. Today, I have awarded the warriors who have proved themselves best in combat, and presented honorary awards and battle flags to the combat brigades. Thank you, warriors! I thank everyone who gives Ukraine the necessary frontline results and protects our country and people.
In the afternoon, I had several international conversations – we are now working very actively to prepare the inaugural Summit, the Peace Summit in Switzerland. It is important that as many states as possible, as many actors as possible who are interested in the full force of the UN Charter and international law, demonstrate their leadership at the Summit. Today, I’ve spoken with the Presidents of Lithuania and Poland, Gitanas Nausėda and Andrzej Duda, and the Prime Ministers of Estonia and Canada, Kaja Kallas and Justin Trudeau… I personally invited them to the Summit. I thanked them for supporting our work for a just peace – for supporting the Peace Formula. Such peace and the true restoration of tranquility in international relations are possible only if the world majority joins in the establishment of peace and forces Russia into peace, forces it to adhere to the basic rules of normal coexistence of nations. I am grateful to all the partners who help us implement this task. I am grateful to every leader who communicates with others to make sure that they also attend the Summit and have their say. Today’s world is a world of the majority, a world in which no one has or should have the privilege of imposing anything on other nations. Especially through violence. Everyone is equally important, and every nation equally deserves respect. This is what our Peace Formula is all about, it is beneficial to every nation, and the Peace Summit is an opportunity to show not just in words but in reality who really stands for equality in the world. Tomorrow and in the coming weeks, we will work and communicate with countries and leaders to ensure that international law is backed by international solidarity.
I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who fights and works for life and justice to prevail!
Glory to Ukraine!
Ukraine does not recognize Vladimir Putin as a democratically elected and legitimate President of the Russian Federation.
🔗 Full MFA statement: https://t.co/HQfPCzswDy
— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) May 6, 2024
From Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs:
Statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine on Vladimir Putin’s “inauguration”
06 May 2024 15:35On May 7, Russia will hold a ceremony to install Vladimir Putin in office. In this way, the Russian authorities are attempting to give the entire world and its own citizens the illusion of legality for the nearly lifelong stay in power of a person who has turned the Russian Federation into an aggressor state and the ruling regime into a dictatorship.
During the so-called March “elections,” the Russian Federation violated numerous international documents that serve as the foundation for the modern system of international relations. In particular, the UN Charter, the Declaration on the Principles of International Law, the Geneva Convention on the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War, the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, and dozens of UN General Assembly resolutions.
The illegal organization of another so-called electoral process in the sovereign territories of Ukraine temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation—parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, and the city of Sevastopol—accompanied by threats, blackmail, and coercion of millions of Ukrainian citizens who live in temporarily occupied territories or were forcibly relocated to the territory of the Russian Federation constituted a brutal violation of the generally recognized norms and principles of international law.
Despite warnings from authoritative international institutions, the Russian Federation’s actions once again demonstrate that its leadership does not recognize its responsibility and is unwilling to end the illegal, unprovoked, and unjustified full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine, which has lasted more than two years and resulted in numerous human casualties and destruction. The Kremlin regime, through propaganda and manipulation, uses voter participation and voting results to justify its military invasion of Ukraine and aggressive policies toward other countries.
Based on the foregoing and the International Criminal Court’s active arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, Ukraine sees no legal basis for recognizing him as the democratically elected and legitimate president of the Russian Federation.
Recent resolutions of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe dated April 17 No. 2540 (2024) and the European Parliament dated April 25 No. 2024/2665(RSP) confirm the ineligibility of holding so-called “elections” in Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories, their undemocratic nature in Russia itself, and, in fact, refute the legitimacy of their results.
We call on foreign countries, international organizations, and the public to follow suit by not recognizing the results of these pseudo-elections or Russian dictator Vladimir Putin as a legitimate president, to resist the demolition of the system of the rule of law and universally recognized democratic values, as well as to continue effectively supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, which poses a threat to European and world security, peace, and stability.
The big news today is, of course, that Putin is once again rattling his nuclear saber in the attempt to further influence the US and its partners’ and allies’ decision making.
Vladimir Putin has ordered Russia's armed forces to hold drills with non-strategic nuclear weapons "in response to provocative statements and threats by certain western officials," the defense ministry says. https://t.co/nh1e8Iq62F
— max seddon (@maxseddon) May 6, 2024
Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, says the drills are a response to French president Emmanuel Macron's musings about sending Nato troops to Ukraine.
“This is a totally new level of escalating tensions. It is unprecedented, it demands special attention and special measures.” pic.twitter.com/Kzj6QkQC1n
— max seddon (@maxseddon) May 6, 2024
It is why the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did this:
Russian MFA: Any UK military sites in Ukraine or elsewhere could face retaliation if Ukraine uses British weapons in Russia. Seriously? What about all those Russian terrorist attacks and sabotage across Europe? Or do they just not count? pic.twitter.com/4dFFaP111p
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 6, 2024
Russia isn’t going to tactically use a nuke, nor is it going to strike a British military facility. All of this is part of Russia’s political warfare. It is part of the ongoing attempt to achieve Russia’s objectives for pennies on the dollar through the use of non-military, non-lethal, and non-kinetic operations using the elements of national power other than military power. Putin keeps doing this because so far every time he’s done so it works. He’ll continue doing it until the US and its allies and partners stop falling for it.
And he keeps doing it because despite all the disadvantages that the Ukrainians are fighting through, things like this are still happening:
/2. Regarding the Su-34 crash:
“Today there was a plane crash of a Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
The crew died.
Crew members: Evgeny Kuznetsov and Vladimir Strelkov.
The plane belonged to the 47th Bomber Aviation Regiment of the 105th Mixed Aviation… pic.twitter.com/OFAJbnZtej
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 6, 2024
/2. Regarding the Su-34 crash:
“Today there was a plane crash of a Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
The crew died.
Crew members: Evgeny Kuznetsov and Vladimir Strelkov.
The plane belonged to the 47th Bomber Aviation Regiment of the 105th Mixed Aviation Division of the Russian Aerospace Forces (A/E Baltimore, Voronezh).
The fighter was performing a combat mission in the area of the village. Valuyki, Belgorod region. Previously, the accident occurred due to engine failure.
The crew did not have time to eject.»
And while the above appears to be an accident or equipment failure, this is not:
/2. Satellite imagery after the attack on Russian boat https://t.co/78n2JdmrCr
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 6, 2024
France:
First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:
“In military terms, the SCALP is a real game changer.”
“Operation Chrysalis : how France is organising the supply of SCALP missiles to Ukraine.”@RFI reveals the 🇲🇫 method for supplying the 🇺🇦 armed forces with SCALP cruise missiles without touching its own strategic stocks.
🧵 pic.twitter.com/Qoav0HFYbk— French Aid to Ukraine 🇨🇵🇺🇦 (@aidefranceukr) May 6, 2024
France has identified several batches of SCALP-EG cruise missiles stored in “cocoons” in its arsenals. A cocoon is a waterproof package used to protect and preserve equipment with a view to a possible return to service.Two types of stockpile emerged: old missiles that had reached the end of their life but were intact.On the other hand, cocoons containing missiles that were no longer used because they had been cannibalised: that is, a certain number of parts or components had been removed in order to keep others in working order. SCALPs used in @Armee_de_lair squadrons.They must, therefore, return to the factories where they were assembled in France. More precisely, in Bourges, on one of the @MBDAGroup industrial sites where these machines were produced in the 2000s.The plan is to upgrade the equipment over a three-month period, during which each missile will undergo a battery of tests. A simplified procedure, because 🇲🇫 is sure that SCALPs sent to 🇺🇦 will not be returned to storage but will be launched against 🇷🇺 targets within weeks.In addition to “Chrysalide”, which must be completed by the end of the year, the 🇲🇫 authorities are also looking elsewhere. They are looking for all types of ammunition: SCALPs, but also 155 mm shells for artillery and surface-to-air weapons to defend the Ukrainian skies.There are also “export” versions of SCALP-EG missiles, and again, the main idea is to ensure that those that reach the end of their life, or that could be sold, are used by Ukraine. This idea has been circulating since the beginning of the year.Some customers in the 🇲🇫 defence industry have ordered large quantities of the SCALPs in a slightly different version to that fitted to 🇲🇫 squadrons. ⤵️However, a source close to the manufacturer told @RFI that these versions can not be programmed using 🇲🇫 computers. These missiles will, therefore, have to be adapted to be compatible with the mission preparation system provided by the @Elysee.Discretion is required on this sensitive issue, but it’s likely that these “export” missiles, if sold, will undergo some modifications on the assembly lines to make them usable by 🇺🇦. The scope of these SCALPs “exports” is somewhat smaller, and some software is different.The first units were delivered to Ukraine in the second half of 2023. In August, @ZelenskyyUa inaugurated a SCALP-EG cruise missile by writing “Glory to Ukraine” on the sides of the weapon.The first shot targeted a 🇷🇺 command centre in the Luhansk oblast, which until then had been out of range of the Ukrainian arsenal. But it was the SCALPs, with “a range of 300 kilometres”, that were the architects of the victory in the Black Sea.On 12 September, a large-scale missile attack destroyed two ships dry-docked in the port of Sevastopol, a large landing ship and a Kilo-class submarine, the Rostov on Don.On 22 September 2023, a salvo of missiles penetrated 🇷🇺 surface-to-air defences and struck the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet, again at the Sevastopol naval base, injuring and killing senior officers.On 4 November 2023, the Kerch shipyard suffered a massive attack by around ten missiles, damaging a 🇷🇺 warship armed with Kalibr cruise missiles.SCALP-EG cruise missiles helped push the 🇷🇺 fleet back to the easternmost part of the Black Sea. A victory that allowed 🇺🇦 to protect the port of Odessa and secure a naval corridor along its coasts, allowing the export of grain.«Opération Chrysalide»: comment la France organise la livraison de missiles Scalp à l’UkraineAlors que l’Ukraine, en difficulté, appelle le camp occidental à lui fournir un maximum d’armes pour freiner l’avancée russe, RFI révèle la méthode française pour alimenter les forces ukrainiennes en…https://www.rfi.fr/fr/europe/20240506-op%C3%A9ration-chrysalide-comment-la-france-organise-la-livraison-de-missiles-scalp-%C3%A0-l-ukraineTL;DR: 🇷🇺 troops and fleets are being harassed by obsolete French cruise missiles that have been recycled. War ecology.@MBDAGroup *missiles not machines
dsas
Oh god, my book on the Battle of Kyiv will finally be out tomorrow, May 7.
It's been months of hard work with @BloomsburyPub… and it now feels so great to see that it's already a bestseller on Amazon, both as a hardcover book and a Kindle version.
I really put my heart into… pic.twitter.com/shPxhbShVT
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 6, 2024
Oh god, my book on the Battle of Kyiv will finally be out tomorrow, May 7.
It’s been months of hard work with @BloomsburyPub… and it now feels so great to see that it’s already a bestseller on Amazon, both as a hardcover book and a Kindle version.
I really put my heart into this.
“I Will Show You How It Was is Illia Ponomarenko’s heart-wrenching memoir of the war on his homeland, offering a fiery diatribe against Russian hypocrisy and a moving look at what is being lost.
But it’s also a story of pride and even elation as Ukrainian forces come together, find their mojo, and oust the invaders from Kyiv.
The most powerful and personal chronicle of the war to date, I Will Show You How It Was is an exceptional literary achievement, chronicling a stunning feat of resistance and a courageous people set on a miraculous victory.” – Amazon
https://amazon.com/Will-Show-You-How-Was/dp/1639733876/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1704027900&sr=8-1
Russian occupied Crimea:
2/4 In August 2023, Sea Baby attacked the Crimean Bridge. And the attack was effective: here are before and after satellite images.
Before drones struck, 40 trains carried weapons and ammunition daily. Now – there are only 4 to 5 passenger transportation and general cargo. pic.twitter.com/oGLaolP3Pp
— Molfar (@molfar_agency) May 6, 2024
4/4 But 🇷🇺 has found an alternative for transporting military cargo through the occupied territories:
– railway
– highway — accounts for up to half the freight traffic, almost as much as the Crimean Bridge.These routes are a more significant threat:https://t.co/n9FEHTiNpE pic.twitter.com/TaRm8AeX03
— Molfar (@molfar_agency) May 6, 2024
GeoConfirmed UKR.
Did Ukraine target an Iskander site using ATACMS on May 4th as suggested?
We have confirmation through satellite imagery that at the selected site, -what seems to be- Iskander launchers and other vehicles were present in significant numbers (over 10) a few… https://t.co/XpreXkdwwo pic.twitter.com/BSIl6ZsZ1K
— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) May 6, 2024
GeoConfirmed UKR.
Did Ukraine target an Iskander site using ATACMS on May 4th as suggested?
We have confirmation through satellite imagery that at the selected site, -what seems to be- Iskander launchers and other vehicles were present in significant numbers (over 10) a few days before the reported strike. Unfortunately, we cannot share the satellite imagery due to copyright restrictions.
Sentinel satellite imagery from April 15th to May 5th shows vehicle movements. (marked in red squares).
This imagery also captured the result of fires erupting at different locations within the site.Key facts:
Pre-Strike Evidence: The site was identified as an Iskander launch site with over 10 vehicles present a few days before May 4th.
Fires on May 4th: Fires were observed at different locations within the site on May 4th, by FIRMS.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1786687702802268230Aftermath of the fires was visible on May 5th by Sentinal. (See below)
Claims: 4 ATACMS were shot down during the night (Source: Russian Ministry of Defense) https://t.me/mod_russia/38237
Insinuation that vehicles were damaged/destroyed. (Source: Ukrainian channel).
https://t.me/tivaz_artillery/3822Given the timing, the Russian MOD’s announcement, and the history of the site, the evidence strongly points to the fires being the result of an ATACMS strike, rather than a random or accidental occurrence.
The damage or destruction of vehicles requires further investigation following the emergence of new footage.
[Repost because of a translation error in previous one]
Bilhorivka:
Destroyed Russian AFV column. Bilohorivka front. 2xBMP-1; 1xT-72Bhttps://t.co/JHnSJ8XyZw pic.twitter.com/h3U4XqeRmX
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 6, 2024
Sumy Oblast:
♥️💥In Sumy Oblast, after border guards shot down a russian UAV, a heart of fire formed in the night sky. pic.twitter.com/GR3tq0jrba
— Iryna Buczkowski🇺🇦🇺🇸Їрина (@IrynaBuczkowski) May 6, 2024
For you drone and missile enthusiasts.
Russian sources claim that they’ve seen a Ukrainian naval drones with installed air to air missiles: P-60 and P-73. pic.twitter.com/t6JjGK72f4
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 6, 2024
/3. Russian Ka-29 helicopter destroys one of Ukrainian naval drones that took part in todays attack on Crimea. Objects which look like air to air missile La can be seen installed on the drone. pic.twitter.com/Ts5TDVdUBE
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 6, 2024
/5. Air to air missile is R-73.
General characteristics of the missile:Mass: 105 kilograms
Maximum speed: Mach 2.5
Operational range: R-73A, R-73E – 30 kilometres; R-73M – 40 kilometres pic.twitter.com/f7wioIJLE1— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 6, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Читачі з України можуть скористатись посиланням на монобанку. Дякую ❤️https://t.co/yprsTl8YHY
— Patron (@PatronDsns) May 6, 2024
I want to introduce my friends and colleagues: sappers from Khmelnytskyi, Olexander Tsaruk, and Olexander Kmet. While on duty, their work car was blown up by an enemy mine. I don’t want to shock you, but only the car’s chassis remains. They miraculously survived. And they need another miracle to live fully again and work for the good of the country. Olexander Tsaruk is the chief pyrotechnician of Khmelnytskyi. As soon as Chernihiv was de-occupied, they were among the first to come to our aid. Because a brother stands by a brother. Right now, he is fighting for his life, with no organ left undamaged 😞 The situation is terrible, but we believe that we will hear from him and see him again. Olexander Kmet is a driver-sapper. Thanks to all the higher powers, his injuries are not life-threatening, but he needs a lot of strength and our help to leave the hospital as well. Today, I transferred $2,500 each from our fund to their treatment. However, the doctors consulting us say full recovery, surgeries, and the best available medications will cost much more. We need to raise $25,000, and I ask for your help.
My PayPal is [email protected] (also you can use the link below).Thanks in advance, lick👅
Open thread!
Snarki, child of Loki
Thanks so very much for your work compiling these reports. It is a great help for keeping Ukraine in mind.
Anne Laurie
Adam, much respect for your dogged persistence in keeping us all up to date.
And that’s great news about Rosie — may she continue to improve at the same rate!
Adam L Silverman
@Snarki, child of Loki: Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Anne Laurie: You are also most welcome
And given what Rosie looked like and how she was behaving last Monday, you have no idea just how great the news is. Thank you again for the kind words and good thoughts.
Nukular Biskits
Interesting, but (to me) not surprising development of adding missiles to drones.
It was inevitable and, IMHO, makes drones more versatile and lethal.
Thanks, Adam.
Geminid
@Anne Laurie: Adam Silverman has produced a body of work the rest of the people on this blog can be proud of if only by association. I hope Dr. Silverman is too, because he ought to be.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid: That guy is making me look bad!
Thanks for the kind words.
TeezySkeezy
So those naval drone missiles were designed as air to air missiles, but are now surface to air by necessity and clever engineering mods?
japa21
Thanks again Adam. I hope that as Rosie recovers you are starting to catch up on your sleep.
You are a true mensch.
Jay
SU-37’s are twin engine aircraft with the best ejection seat system in ruZZia.
Not an accident.
Not equipment failure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jklGQxAOoo8&t=20s
Jay
@TeezySkeezy:
Yes.
The US has also adopted/adapted sidewinders as ground to air missiles.
pieceofpeace
Thanks, Adam. Did you ever find out about Alison Rose? I miss reading your reports when I’m out of range of tech.
On a different note regarding Ukraine, today I read a local newspaper opinion from someone I recognize as a well-regarded and well-aged(ahem), who commented about the student/collegiate protests for Palestinians. And while being sympathetic, he noted any like response for Ukranians.
I have thoughts and assumptions, but am sure you have more-informed and accurate ones.
No rush, if you want to discuss this at some point. For now, celebrate the freedom that health gives to Rosie and you.
HumboldtBlue
Good dog news is always good to hear.
Scalp’em, Ukraine.
Oh, and as for a slow news day:
TeezySkeezy
@HumboldtBlue: Just another reason Biden’s dog Commander is actually a goooood boy.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
Well, technically, the engines did fail. It’s like “heart attacks”; in Russia, that means that the heart stopped beating for some reason.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Martin
@HumboldtBlue: I don’t think they would have escalated to a criminal investigation if they didn’t have evidence it was intentional.
Dan B
Glad for good news on Rosie.
The GOP voted against funding Biden’s Moon Shot cancer program last year.
Thanks for reposting that Putin is using bully tactics to threaten the world. Tactical nukes are a threat to Russia since the fallout will likely blow that direction. Oligarchs won’t like that.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Good new about Rosie!
Carlo Graziani
Wait, what? “🇲🇫 computers” are not general-purpose computers?
I bet it takes 30 minutes for Ukrainian McGyvers to solve this problem.
Carlo Graziani
@Geminid: True that.
Carlo Graziani
Sorry, my Xitter skills are weak. I can’t seem to determine the location of the Iskander launchers claimed to have been destroyed by ATACMS strikes. Anyone have coordinates on those?
Something seems to be changing rapidly since those munitions were provided to Ukraine. It is not entirely clear what, though. At least, to me.
YY_Sima Qian
Since Ukraine did not have much capability to hold Russia’s Iskander launchers at risk, it seems the Russians fell into complacency & failed to keep their launchers mobile. As they have done in the past though, we should expect the Russian Army to learn & adapt to reduce the effectiveness of the ATACMS.
TeezySkeezy
@YY_Sima Qian: The drone era of course has quite disturbing implications all around, but Russia has to realize if they destroy ukraine as a state they’re still going to have asymmetric drone attacks *forever.* Of course, when small military drones become even more ubiquitous, we all may have that problem, but Russia keeps racking up a list of people who hate them with little left to lose.
EDIT: this was meant as a reply to a different comment, if it seems a little out of nowhere.
Steeplejack
Good to hear that Rosie is doing better.
Re housekeeping notes: The “War for Ukraine” day number has been off by one for a while. Day 784 was skipped on April 17.
Bill Arnold
Paywalled, but the headline and first paragraph are sufficient.
One could now reasonably speculate that this may be fallout from the 972mag piece on the Israeli “Lavender” mass-assassination program, with rules allowing very high levels of collateral civilian deaths. (10 to 20 to 1, IIIRC, and often families, in family dwellings). Russia should take note, if this is so, that the USA is starting to walk the talk re war crimes.
U.S. Delays Sending Precision Weapons to Israel – Biden administration has held up delivery of Joint Direct Attack Munitions[1] as it pressures its ally not to go into Rafah (WSJ, Nancy A. Youssef, Jared Malsin, May 6, 2024)
[1] The Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) is a guidance kit that converts unguided bombs, or “dumb bombs”, into all-weather precision-guided munitions.
Another Scott
@Carlo Graziani: The coordinates I see in the Benjamin Pittett tweet above take me here.
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.
BeautifulPlumage
Hi Adam, adding to the “thank you’s” for all of your insight. Glad to hear Rosie is responding to her treatments.
Gin & Tonic
@TeezySkeezy: “Clever engineering mods” are a way of life in Ukraine.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: Also probably does not want to equip the IDF to expand the high tensity war to Southern Lebanon, where there has been a medium level tit-for-tat going on between the the IDF & the Hezbollah for months.
Bill Arnold
@Carlo Graziani:
google maps shows that as in mid-Crimea.
45°26’39.3″N 33°43’10.4″E
Carlo Graziani
@Another Scott: Ah, OK, thanks. Looks like 160 km into Crimea from potential HIMARS launch sites, well outside the 90 km range of HIMARS M-31 munitions. The Russians really are getting a nasty wake-up call
I wonder what the target committe priority lists look like
Carlo Graziani
@Bill Arnold: Thank you.
Another Scott
@Carlo Graziani: The target list must be pretty long.
Reuters.com (from September 2022):
The first HIMARS were delivered June 23, 2022.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: The US Army fielded the MIM-72 Chaparral SAM, based on the Sidewinder AAM, in the Cold War. The US-Norwegian NASAMS uses the AIM-120 AAM, & the German IRIS-T is also base on a European AAM.
wombat probability cloud
@Geminid:
Seconded.Thirded, and so glad for Rosie’s news.Anoniminous
Putting air-to-air missiles on drones was a no-brainer obvious next step. The obvious next next step is a jet powered drone air-to-air interceptor with a 1,000 km range. The weakest part of an air superiority fighter is the pilot. Have to do all kinds of safety bullshit with G-force restricts during maneuvering, low bandwidth HMI avionics, OODA loops measured in minutes instead of milliseconds, & ya-dee-yah-dah. Get rid of the meat sack and the aircraft size collapses in all dimensions with greater performance and ordinance.
Anoniminous
@TeezySkeezy:
Raytheon started making ground launched Sidewinders in the 2010s. The problem is the AMX’s range of ~22 miles (35 km.) Compare with the Russian S-300’s ability to reach up to 400km. Realistically ground launched AMXs isn’t worth it.
YY_Sima Qian
Hilarious Twitter thread from Alexander Boyd of China Digital Times (which actually monitors CPC regime propaganda & censorship, follows trends on Chinese social media, as well as brings forth to the ROW views & news from the PRC that are quickly censored by the regime).
Click through the link for screen caps of responses, unfortunately all in Chinese. I had a good laugh…
Now, Dugin has a poor reputation on Chinese social media (at least for the relatively few who are aware of him). The Russian ultranationalism & ultra-chauvinism would rub everyone from the pro-Western Chinese liberals to the Chinese nationalist/ultranationalists to the wrong way. Nevertheless, such responses are clearly being allowed to be voiced by the censors.