Irma is still at sea. She is getting big and strong. Here is what Wunderground’s Bob Henson is saying:
Over the last day, there has been some convergence of two of our best long-range track models, the GFS and European models, toward a possible landfall in or near the Carolinas around Monday. Both models are consistent in bringing a strong upper-level trough across the United States and off the East Coast by this weekend. The models also suggest that a small weakness will be left behind, somewhere near the lower- to mid-Mississippi Valley. If so, this could help bring Irma toward the United States. However, the path of least resistance for Irma might instead be toward the large departing trough and out to sea into the Northwest Atlantic. These two scenarios have hugely different implications, but they depend on fairly subtle differences in the atmosphere that may not become clear for several more days to come.
We don’t know where Irma will end up. There is a reasonable chance that Irma brushes the coast and heads out to sea. There is a decent chance that Irma goes bowling at landfall. We don’t know.
We do have time.
To give you a scope of how much uncertainty there is with #Irma, here is a every spaghetti model available. No one is out of the woods yet. pic.twitter.com/ttgXDEI6gc
— Tropical Updater (@tropicalupdater) September 3, 2017
Use this time wisely. I’m starting hurricane prep today. I am doing things that if nothing happens, the only cost is time. I have filled six two-liter bottles two thirds full of water and put them in the freezer. That increases the family water reserve and builds thermal mass in case the electricity goes out so that the food can stay cold. I cleaned up the patio already and moved some furniture to the storage unit. I’ve pulled the camp stove and cook gear out of the storage unit. I am filling my son’s asthma prescription tomorrow instead of over the weekend. I am buying some extra bottled water and refried beans. I’ll pick up batteries and a gallon of bleach this afternoon. I’ll fill the gas tank.
If nothing happens, I just shifted purchases and actions I would have taken some time in the next two weeks forward. If Irma does come to North Carolina, we’ll be in good shape and not storming the stores on Thursday.
We have time, so use it and don’t panic.
And always bring your towel.