Let me preface my remarks by saying that I am a firm believer that the national polling really does not matter until after the second convention. When both candidates have chosen their VP and held their conventions, then I think we will really get a good idea of how the candidates are stacking up. I know others disagree, and I know the folks at RCP and 538 and Kos are smart folks, I just still think the real game begins after the convention.
Having said that, via James Joyner, RCP has McCain ahead of Obama in the electoral college vote for the first time, and James asks:
Despite this post’s headline, I would still characterize the race as tied, if not one in which Obama has a very slight edge. But it’s very interesting that, despite Obama having made no serious gaffes and having a country palpably ready to change direction, he’s losing ground.
Several possible explanations come to mind:
The Russia-Georgia crisis has brought national security to the forefront, to McCain’s advantage;
McCain’s strong showing at the Rick Warren Saddleback thing the other night helped him;
It’s summertime, nobody’s paying much attention, and this is some statistical fluke;
Negative advertising works
Perhaps all of those things are true.
Perhaps, although if I had to bet if there was an impact on the race, it would be #3 and #4. Then again, the question I have is that if Obama only leading nationally by a few points all summer was considered bad news for Obama, then clearly McCain taking the lead must be construed as bad news for John McCain. Or am I just not really understanding the premise that EVERYTHING IS GOOD NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN, and that when Obama was only leading by 5 it was bad news for Obama, and this is now CATASTROPHIC NEWS and the CAMPAIGN IS IN DISARRAY and they NEED A SHAKE-UP!
Personally, I eagerly await the vapid posts from a certain Hillary diehard that this is proof Obama must choose Hillary as his VP.