The Instapundit today revisits ann old prediction of his:
If Blair loses or does badly, the press will say that the election was a referendum on the Iraq war and Bush. If Blair does better than expected, the press will say that the election was about local issues of no greater significance. (Either way, resentment of the Blair government’s position on the EU and immigration will be largely ignored.)
Maybe. But two quick things:
1.) The outcome is a win-win for Bush. If Blair wins, the opposition will finally put to bed the Iraq war as a weapon, and Bush retains his strongest ally in Iraq. If Blair loses, Bush has an ally in the Tories on virtually every other issue.
2>) To date, despite all the rancor in the media about opposition to the war, in the big three, no one has paid a price, at least not at the election booth. Bush was re-elected and increased his margin of victory. John Howard, who is really Bush’s soulmate, was elected in Australia. And I see nothing that tells me Blair will not be re-elected today.