đ¨BREAKING: President Biden and Dr. Jill Biden just rolled into this year's White House Correspondents Dinner.
FUN FACT: trumplethinskin was too much of a thin-skinned chicken shit to attend these. pic.twitter.com/m23BQnK9Xv
— BrooklynDad_Defiant!âŽď¸ (@mmpadellan) April 28, 2024
The President and First Lady arrive at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.pic.twitter.com/C7XTRE9jj8
— Molly Ploofkins⢠(@Mollyploofkins) April 28, 2024
MVP Kamala Harris just arrived at the White House Correspondents Dinner and she looks STUNNING
Why are her and SG Doug Emhoff so cute? pic.twitter.com/YOiS4GE6OH
— Qondi (@QondiNtini) April 28, 2024
The Washington Post has an excellent slide show of the red carpet looks. (I’d include a gift link if I could figure out how to do so, but the usual link-to sidebar isn’t included. )
=======
Another fantastic clip of Colin Jost at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.
"Rigging the Super Bowl."
"I think you've gotta pick one."
"I don't know any criminal mastermind that bikes to get ice cream."
đ¤Łđ¤Łđ¤Łđ¤Łđ¤Łđ¤Ł pic.twitter.com/R34faOydGV
— Art Candee đżđĽ¤ (@ArtCandee) April 28, 2024
Worth listening to this whole clip, if only for the Staten Island jokes:
Colin Jost: "My grandpa voted for decency and decency is why we're all here tonight. Decency is how we're able to be here tonight. Decency is how we're able to make jokes about each other and one of us doesn't go to prison after…"#WHCA #WHCD #nerdprom pic.twitter.com/ti5bTkHQP7
— CSPAN (@cspan) April 28, 2024
Shorter version:
Wow. Very moving words from Colin Jost at the White House Correspondents Dinner tonight âMy grandfather voted for you in the last election he ever voted in. The reason he voted for you is because youâre a decent man. I thank you for your decency.â Amazing. pic.twitter.com/ivcdsMyg04
— Harry Sisson (@harryjsisson) April 28, 2024
Turnabout…
President Biden jokes about Colin Jost.#WHCA #WHCD #nerdprom pic.twitter.com/ysKaU5eown
— CSPAN (@cspan) April 28, 2024
Early review from the entertainment professionals at Variety:
… âSaturday Night Liveâ comedian Colin Jost delivered a mixed bag of Trump zingers, media jokes and Biden age wisecracks in front of a demanding crowd Saturday at the annual White House Correspondentsâ Dinner, but it took him until the last of his remarks to fully charm the assemblage of journalists and politicos who came to hear him roast the President and the Washington press corps.
Jost finished his remarks by telling President Joe Biden about his 95 year old grandfather, a longtime fireman in Staten Island, N.Y, who voted Democrat in the 2020 presidential election even though that borough of New York City is known to favor Republicans…
The anecdote wrapped a meandering collection of quips about perceptions of Bidenâs age, former President Donald Trumpâs ongoing legal woes and a few gags about The New York Times and Fox News Channel.
âThe Republican candidate for president owes half a billion in fines for bank fraud and is currently spending his days farting himself awake during a porn star hush money trial and the race is tied?â asked Jost. âThe race is tied. Nothing makes sense anymore.â He added: âThe candidate who is a famous New York City playboy took abortion rights away, and the guy who is giving you abortion rights back is an 80-year-old Catholic. How does that make sense?â…
For his part, President Biden urged journalists to keep in mind their role in preserving a functioning democracy, suggesting reporters steer away from horse-race campaign stories and âgotchaâ moments in favor of the likely effects the next election will have on American life and policy. He also vowed to continue to work to free journalists like Evan Gershkovich and Austin Tice who have been imprisoned unjustly abroad.
President Biden also spent much time throwing a few stones at his Oval Office rival. He called Trump âSleepy Don,â a reference to reports that Trump has been falling asleep during his current trial in New York, and turned ongoing questions about his own physical and mental condition toward Trump. âOf course, the 2024 election is in full swing. And yes, age is an issue,â Biden said. âIâm a grown man running against a six-year-old.â
Biden brings up January 6 and Trump's vow to become a dictator and implores journalists at the WHCA to "take this seriously … I'm asking you to rise up to the seriousness of the moment. Move past the horse race numbers and the gotcha moments." pic.twitter.com/w0uVtAoC4t
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 28, 2024
Lest we (as if we could!) forget:
I want to take a moment to give master roaster & truth teller Michelle Wolf a shout-out. In 2018 She used her night at the White House correspondents' dinner to speak truth & shame some powerful people & they deserved it. She said what we wanted to, but didn't have the reach. pic.twitter.com/w72ttoVZsT
— Susanđşđ˛âď¸đşđŚ (@ifudontlike2bad) April 27, 2024
NotMax
Weekend long watch/listen: Kyoto kidz kadence.
Impressive
;)
Baud
Truth be told, I wish Trump had killed off NerdProm. But Biden is a funny guy.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: It’s easy enough to just ignore it.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
I do. Except for clips screened by BJ.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyoneđđđ
Elizabelle
We should keep tabs on how the MSM reports Bidenâs remarks. How many will go there on reporting his comments about the horse race?
Because what theyâre too often doing is journalistic malpractice. Â Cover the sizzle, not the actual steak. Â
Not on my laptop yet, but I will check out some newspaper sites once Iâve got coffee.
OzarkHillbilly
Same here.
NotMax
Woo hoo! Managed (long distance), across two days of phone calls, to solve ALL of Mom’s problems with her Roku set-up in the living/dining room after Verizon replaced their fancy-schmancy FIOS HD cable box there, which had gone nutso. First day was getting the Roku to function with a remote from one of her other rooms, day two was fixing use of the remote she uses in that room.
No idea what they did but it threw everything else out of whack, including the Roku Streambar remote. Bought and installed that unit for her a couple of years ago as it includes a setting to enhance dialogue.
Elizabelle
I havenât watched any of the Dinner or clips. Â May I hope that Putz Sulzberger came in for some derision? Â From anyone? Â Not getting my hopes up there.
NotMax
@Elizabelle
Directly? Not on your tintype.
SiubhanDuinne
If for no other reason, thatâs worth the click just for the joy of seeing Senator John Fetterman in his formal hoodie.
NotMax
WHCD scholarship checks apparently sealed in carbonite at $2500 each. Certainly they could pony up something more in line with current college costs.
SiubhanDuinne
@Elizabelle:
Not by name, but POTUS got in a good line or two about the patheticness of the FTFNYT.
Citizen Dave
This event is too much like catnip to politicians (normal ones), but I absolutely hate it and think it should go away. The “roast/zinger” format only adds to the distaste. It does seem like it gets less attention each year
ETA: $2500? Another piece of evidence to show it’s just a circle jerk event
Jeffg166
People I would actually like to have dinner with.
Baud
@Citizen Dave:
Agreed.
Keith P.
Hank Scorpio would.
Patricia Kayden
Colin Jostâs commentary about his Grandfatherâs last vote and decency moved me. President Biden is a decent human being. The same canât be said for his opponent. Itâs wild how so many Americans canât see this. The polls are alarming. Iâm staying optimistic and participating in GOTV opportunities because weâve got to win in November.
Marmot
My brother makes a distinction between nerdsâwho actually know something unusual or difficultâand dorks, who donât know much, but are sycophants drawn to nerd-related places, people, and topics.
This is largely Dork Prom.
TBone
In 1974 journalists Sam Kinch and âStuart Long published a book about Texas politics. The book credited âTexas Spectatorâ journalist Hubert Mewhinney with formulating the didactic tale under examination in the late 1940s. The tale referred to the two most powerful Texas politicians during that era.
It was designed as a criticism of the then current attitude of Texas newspapersâthat you quote what the man says, and thatâs all.
Betty Cracker
Iâm so glad he said that.
Baud
@Patricia Kayden:
People don’t see what they don’t want to see. We are hated and feared because we upset the natural order of things. Trump doesn’t change that.
lowtechcyclist
The problem isn’t the attention it gets, it’s the incestuous relationship between the press and the politicians they cover. The WHCA is only one part of that incestuous relationship, but every little bit helps, which is why it should go away.
And yeah, $2500 scholarships are next to meaningless these days.
Elizabelle
@SiubhanDuinne: Â Yay!
@Marmot: Â They are Dorks. Â And corporate publicists and Mean Girls, no matter what their gender.
Nerds and geeks are intelligent and authentic.
Elizabelle
@TBone: Â Thank you. Â Good to know.
mrmoshpotato
Thanks for including Michelle Wolf’s takedown of the Press Corpse. So few words, yet so true and deserving.
BellyCat
The WHCD is the foundational reason we are STILL dealing with The 6 Year Old. For that reason alone it should go away. Thanks, ObamaâŚ.
Quinerly
@Baud:
If it gets under Trumpâs skin it’s still worth it, imo. I am to a point that I believe Trumpâs deterioration mentally and physically, his rantings and ravings are what might save us…..thus, depressing HIS voter turnout. There are Republicans who will never vote for Biden but hopefully there are some that just won’t vote for more insanity. I have to think some Republican voters are just exhausted.
YMMV.
Elizabelle
@Patricia Kayden: I think polling is badly broken. Â Plus, bad actors have reason to release what is inaccurate information. Â Polls and election results have been out of synch for some time now.
Voting and GOTV is everything.
I would LOVE if we enlisted Nelle to do some jackal training on nonconfrontational voter contact.  On how to actually provide info that  will change minds, without coming off as condescending; meet them where they are.
Maybe a series of Zooms.
TBone
@Elizabelle: đ
Here’s another example of good journalism AND why President Biden and his team are going to win!
https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/european-energy-crisis-pa-lng-chester-export-cliamte-20240424.html
City of Chester, PA activist invited to speak to German government about why LNG & the pipeline are not good ideas. Representation matters!
Chet Murthy
@mrmoshpotato: She’s great, isn’t she? I loved her show (when she had it, sigh). I loved how she’d find a funny way to mention abortion so often, too! And it was long before that was popular!
Elizabelle
@Quinerly: Â agree on Trump fatigue.
Hugs to JoJo.
Frankensteinbeck
@Marmot:
And geeks, who passionately love a topic.
BretH
@NotMax: Our daughter turned us on to that band when she was in her high school marching band. They are a force of nature!
Ken
What, no supermax prison?
I sometimes think anyone running for
mayorany public office should be required to play Sim City and get through fifty sim-years without being offered the toxic waste plant or supermax prison (something the game does when it notices you’re doing very badly — you get yearly $$$ but they hammer your stats).narya
I want Questlove’s jacket. And Billy Porter is, as always, awesome. (Side note: one of the entertaining things about “Abbot Elementary” is how many genuine stars they get to show up–including the aforementioned Questlove.)
Quinerly
@Elizabelle:
He’s had his morning pee and snack. Back in my bed, under his blanket. Still the “Spoiled Covid Times Puppy” at almost 5 years old.
When are you going to get in your Santa Fe trip? Message me. I made this year’s La Posada reservation last year…..actually 2. Will cancel one when the time comes. Might mix it up and do New Year’s in Winslow instead of Christmas there. Last year, I did NYE on the Rez. Now, that was interesting.
Elizabelle
@Quinerly: I will!!
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@SiubhanDuinne: I thought you were joking but he is in fact wearing a black-tie hoodie.
Hint #458626 that Iâm out of touch: I recognized maybe 5 people in those red carpet photos. Never heard of most of them.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@lowtechcyclist: It should cover a semesterâs textbooks, thatâs something.
Glory b
@Marmot: Yeach, I was coming here to say that it was an insult to needs, who are actually smart.
Quinerly
@Elizabelle:
It will be hot but my gardens/yards will be “peak” in July. I have been working pretty hard on them for the last 3 weeks. We can hang out here during the day and make reservations for great restaurants at night. Cocktails in the Bell Tower at La Fonda, too. Plus, my homemade Sangria is pretty famous in certain circles.đ
TBone
@Ken: yes, they do have a new(ish) huge prison. BUT that article is written by the actual German politician who went to Chester, PA, where an awful lot of people fear to tread! She then invited Lurene to Germany to speak the truth to their power. It’s all very inspiring, that a German female politician invited a Black American female activist from Chester! About why President Biden and admin. ARE CORRECT to pause the pipeline project đâ¤ď¸ despite Russia and the energy sitch in Europe
Matt McIrvin
@Elizabelle:
Do we have any reason to think it’s broken in a direction that is good for us? In 2016 and 2020, it underestimated Trump’s support. Midterm and off-year election results are more encouraging, but Trump was not running in those elections. He could be just as easily leading in a landslide as trailing. As they say in the climate change biz, uncertainty is not your friend.
We need to try to win this but I think we also need to be thinking about what we actually do in the other possibility–a world of loyalty oaths, mass arrests, mass disappearances, deputization of neighbors by the security apparatus, criminalization of political opposition.
But don’t necessarily talk about your plans here.
TBone
@SiubhanDuinne: â¤ď¸ he’s the guy that said “call their bluff” before Moscowitz actually went and did it ! I actually sent him a “Right On!” email at the time.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-biden-impeachment-john-fetterman_n_64f8df8de4b0d44852edd611
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
We have off election results but that’s it. This election will turn on what white voters think about the direction they want go. Could be a landslide in either direction.
Betty Cracker
Jesus, that WaPo slideshow! It looks like Kennedy couldnât find her dress, so she made one out of a giant argyle sock. Hideous!
Marmot
@Frankensteinbeck: Sorry, no. Those are dorks.
narya
@Betty Cracker: That one really stuck out as heinous. Haaland’s skirt was beautiful. Evan Ryan (Blinken’s wife/cabinet sec) needs a new stylist; neither the color nor cut did her any favors. Abby Phillip’s was gorgeous and Kate Boulduan’s (who is she??) was . . . not.
sab
@Betty Cracker: Kate Bolduan’s was worse. But Kennedy’s did look like a big sock. Also why not wear a Kennedy tartan while she is at it.
Spanky
@SiubhanDuinne:
With the Carhartt logo front and (off)center!
citizen dave
@Betty Cracker: I also liked the caption: “The radio personality known as Kennedy”
narya
@citizen dave: Showing us, with her dress, why she’s a RADIO personality?
Spanky
@narya: My sense of haute couture was strangled in its crib, but my picks of a not-so-stellar lot would be Sec. Haaland and Karine Jean-Pierre.
Geminid
@TBone: One of many reasons I want North Carolina AG Josh Stein to win this year’s Governor’s race is that this might forestall an LNG terminal on the Carolina coast. The “Mountain Valley” gas pipeline is still a viable project, and there is no reason to build a 42″ pipeline from West Virginia to coastal North Carolina besides export. A Stein victory could be the final nail in that pipeline’s coffin.
Trivia Man
Downside of the dinner – it gives baby some legitimate gripes about his gag order. So far joe has said very little and all of that around the edges. I dont onow if anyone dug into trial specific jokes, any! of the trials, but if they did that probably pushes the judge to be more lenient on the gag.
schrodingers_cat
It should be called the hack prom. Whitehouse Press corpse are not nerds, they are hacks in the service of the Republican party.
Eyeroller
@Trivia Man: The gag order was for him to stop threatening the judge and jury members and their families. If that means he can’t say anything at all about the trial, not even whine about the unfairness of it all, it’s entirely on him.
Betty Cracker
@Trivia Man: Have they imposed even one consequence on Trump for violating the gag order, which heâs done repeatedly? Hard to imagine how he could be treated more leniently!
Trivia Man
@Elizabelle: at the very least a shoutout to pitchbot would have landed with that crowd. They know damn well what doug balloonjuice is up to and follow him. Side bet: some people in that room use him for ideas.
Baud
@Trivia Man:
He did that last year.
coin operated
@Elizabelle:
Especially with the yutes. From a meme I saw somewhere: “Kids would rather pull the pin from a live grenade than answer a call from an unknown number”
TBone
@Geminid: đmaybe Zulene (daggone couldn’t get that past autocorrect) should make another visit and speechify!
schrodingers_cat
@coin operated: That describes me. I am a long way from being a kid.
Trivia Man
@Eyeroller: And to stop trying to influence witnesses. Im not agreeing with the defense but making a case that âthe president is trying to influence witnessesâ is far from their worst angle.
Joe has done an excellent tightrope walk so far – dont ignore the legal woes but be clear âI am bot directing this. State courts and the DOJ are independent agencies as they should be. This is not me âattacking a rivalâ it is âcrimes being prosecuted without fear or favor.â
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Me too.
Trivia Man
@Trivia Man: I know, I know- they will say it anyway. But if you give ârespectableâ journalists like the FTFNYT a quote to use for BOTH SIDES!!! they will ride that pony every day with a megaphone.
SFAW
@narya: â I sometimes tell people that I have a face made for radio. Many of them don’t get it.ââ
ETA: Maybe if I said my nickname was “Kollos”? But most are too young to get the ref.
SFAW
@schrodingers_cat:
Bingo. No disrespect to Marmot @ 19, but this is better (and more accurate) than “Dork Prom.”
Betty
@narya: Wow! Lots of poor taste among those fashions. I think Kate Balduan (CNN) had the worst outfit (not sure what you call that).
coin operated
@schrodingers_cat: It describes me as well. My iPhone is set to silence calls from numbers that are not in my contacts list. Great feature…
Jackie
@SiubhanDuinne: Loved that!
TBone
@SiubhanDuinne: Fran Dresher âĄđ
opiejeanne
@narya: There are two that I dislike more than Kennedy’s dress. They’re both in the WaPo photos, but the worst one is missing from the USA Today set, which has twice as many photos and doesn’t focus on the protesters outside trying to stop the guests from entering:
https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/entertainment/celebrities/2024/04/27/white-house-correspondents-dinner-red-carpet-all-the-stars-that-wowed/73443333007/
Frankensteinbeck
@schrodingers_cat:
An accurate description would be the Mean Girl Prom, but that takes in too many other proms.
Harrison Wesley
@TBone: Delco really runs the length of the class structure, doesn’t it? From Swarthmore through Media to Chester and Marcus Hook (much beloved of petroleum refiners and outlaw bikers – it is the Warlocks’ suburban HQ, isn’t it?). Fascinating, but I find all of PA fascinating, even the super-red parts.
coin operated
Back to the topic at hand…the Nerd Prom has become a full-on roast and I think Colin did an excellent job. And he absolutely stuck the landing with the story of his grandfather voting for Biden.
My personal fav was him skewing Lara Trump. After calling her out for her cover of “Won’t Back Down” he said “I canât believe Iâm saying this to a member of the Trump family but maybe stick to politics”
MagdaInBlack
@opiejeanne: Did they photoshop Andrea Mitchell’s head on to that body? wth?
Trivia Man
@Betty Cracker: Point taken. However – he has paid some fines, has more under discussion next week, and actually has been at least a little more careful about the most extreme rhetoric. If the judge now says âyou are right, it isnt fair they can say stuff about you. Go nuts.â He will escalate to the moon. And his minions will pound that card to death. SEE! EVEN A LIBERAL TRUMP HATING JUDGE ADMITS ITS UNFAIR. WITCH HUNT CONFIRMED!!
Another Scott
@Elizabelle: @NotMax:
Jost said something about the FTFNYT being there and wanting an interview with Biden, but that (something like) he went with the industry giant with the huge audience instead – Howard Stern. I liked the dig that they were only still in business because of Wordle and phone puzzles, also too.
Jost was ok. His closing story was excellent.
It was good that they called out the team on the Uvalde tragedy (which included ProPublica). Scholarships were $2500, but that prize was $25,000. I’m sure the plaque and networking is the big draw over the checks.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Citizen Alan
@schrodingers_cat: I favor the Prostitute’s Ball, myself.
Richard Fox
I sometimes think I am living alongside Alice in Wonderland. I see Biden doing brilliantly in spite of all obstacles, I think he did well at the press party nonsense last night, etc. yet I casually look online and I see a CNN headline to the effect that 60% of those polled think Bidenâs tenure has been a failure and that Tump was more successful or something to that effect. How should one take that. I was actually cognizant during Trumpâs pseudo presidency and saw what he didnât do to protect the country on all levels. Who are these people polling? Is it just to grab a headline to write such nonsense? Is it an accurate reflection of how the âpeopleâ truly feel? Iâm dumbfounded more than anything else.
Anyway
@opiejeanne:
Kristen Welker looks horrendous — she and Fetterman are my choices for Worst Dressed.
Baud
@Richard Fox:
Trump automatically gets 40% and Biden automatically loses 40% because of the GOP base.
The rest is gaslighting and our political culture’s desire to take Dems for granted.
opiejeanne
@MagdaInBlack: Ha! It does look like that. I thought the dress was swallowing her and hadn’t gotten to her head.
Geminid
@TBone: The people behind the Mountain Valley pipeline are trying to get the pipeline built before an LNG terminal is proposed. They’re careful to emphasize that the pipeline isn’t necessarily for export; they just won’t rule export out either.
But it’s a 42″ pipeline, and it crosses at least one of the 20″ pipelines that already supply the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with natural gas. And right now the pipeline is planned to finish out in a sparsely populated area of coastal North Carolina with virtually no industry. If they can get the thing built, someone will propose an LNG terminal, maybe near Morehead City, start the permitting process, and argue, “Why let all that gas go to waste?”
That will be tougher if Democrats control the White House and the Governor’s Mansion. I think If Trump had won in 2020, that terminal would probably be under construction by now. Now, hopefully the pipeline won’t be ever be completed.
Baud
@Geminid:
It’s a common game the oil and gas companies play. They take advantage of jurisdictional issues to game the system.
opiejeanne
@Anyway: Welker’s color isn’t that, and the dress looks like a bag on her. Were there no mirrors when she tried it on?
Almost Retired
I made the (brief) mistake of watching CNNâs coverage of the âred carpet.â Â Harry Enten was gushing over the C – list celebrities like some sort of Beltway Billy Bush. Â At first I thought it might be satire, but it soon became clear that he was genuinely verklempt.
lowtechcyclist
@Matt McIrvin:
It did? I missed that. In 2016, things swung dramatically in the last week and a half, thanks to Comey, and the polls are an estimate at a point in time.
Nonetheless, on the morning of Tuesday, November 8, Nate Silver said the polls gave Trump a 30% chance of winning. Since the most recent polls were still based on data two or three days old, I think that was actually pretty damn good.
And I don’t recall anything from October 2020 that suggested Biden had a comfortable lead going into Election Day. If anything, the popular vote margin of 7 million was more than one would have expected from the polling.
Elizabelle
@schrodingers_cat: Â Hack Prom is right.
@narya: Dressed for radio! Â Beyond true.
opiejeanne
@Anyway: Kate Bolduan’s outfit was just bad, but Dana Bash’s looked like her grandma crocheted it with leftover yarn and didn’t know when to stop. .
lowtechcyclist
@schrodingers_cat:
Strongly concur.
opiejeanne
@Elizabelle: Kennedy even had matching longish gloves made. I don’t think it’s the worst but it is ugly.
Eyeroller
@Richard Fox: Inflaaaation! We didn’t have any for ten years, why is it back? There was no inflation under Trump!
SiubhanDuinne
@opiejeanne:
In the USA Today link you provided, I noticed that several of the attendees are leaning to their right. They look like theyâre about to tip over. I hope itâs not supposed to be a metaphor for their political leanings, but I donât recall seeing anyone leaning left (mind you, I got bored and stopped scrolling eventually, so itâs possible I missed some).
Omnes Omnibus
All the caveats about polling being broken and polls this early being meaningless…. Yet, the recent CBS poll shows that “young voters who want Mr. Biden to tell Israel to stop its military actions in Gaza are still voting for him, at about the same rate as younger voters overall.”
karen marie
@OzarkHillbilly: And ignore the chance to see a truly awful production? The production values of this one were shockingly bad. I watched it last night in full on the cspan youtube channel. It was like a junior high talent show. The “man of 100 voices” used the poor guy who lit himself and the children who died in Uvalde as punch lines. Truly horrifying.
Kelly O’Donnell should stick to her day job.
Marmot
@schrodingers_cat: I can live with Hack Prom.
laura
@opiejeanne: kate Bouldan left the house looking like that. It’s a shame she doesnt have one friend who could have stopped her from doing that. I mean, it’s bad enough to have the giant cat fight between the skirt and the corset, but the hoop skirt arms sans skirt? I do not understand the fashion and I’m sad about the absolute absence of style, and for some reason, I keep thinking about the Mary Tyler Moore show episode where Mary sprained her ankle and had to wear a wet sock, Rhoda’s dress and her hot rollers failed to curl her hair to an awards show and cried about it in her acceptance speech.
schrodingers_cat
I liked Kamala Harris and Deb Haland’s outfits.
mrmoshpotato
@coin operated: What if someone is spoofing your bank’s number? Blocked!
schrodingers_cat
@opiejeanne: Agreed on both counts.
opiejeanne
@mrmoshpotato: I don’t know my bank’s number, and they NEVER call me.
Hilarious attempt at trying to talk to me about my credit union, the guy was trying to pronounce the four-letter acronym as a word and I couldn’t understand what he was trying to say. Finally had him spell it for me, which is how you say it, and started laughing. I told him he was a scammer and I was hanging up, and he started yelling at me that he was not a scammer. I’m pretty sure that anyone who works at the CU knows how to say the name of the institution correctly.
opiejeanne
@laura: The MTMÂ show was so very good. The best/worst clothing I saw her wear was a dress that Ted had designed. It had cutouts all the way down both sides in the front, it was bright green, and she was very uncomfortable in it, but all he could say was that she looked hot in it.
Ksmiami
@Richard Fox: I donât get it either and all the moderates I know who swung to Biden last time are not voting for Trump. Jfc, this countryâŚ
mrmoshpotato
@opiejeanne: My bank doesn’t call me either, but the ID was showing up as them (and they aren’t in my contacts).
It was weird.
Juju
I looked at the pictures and I still donât know who this Kennedy woman is, and Andrea Mitchellâs head looks too big for her body.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Yeah you are right didn’t Hoover also get close to 40% against FDR, we had 30% unemployment then.
opiejeanne
@mrmoshpotato: Huh. that is strange.
I get calls that I know are spoofed at first glance, even when my phone doesn’t say spam risk. I still have my old phone number from Anaheim, so when I get a call from a 714 area code, I know it’s bogus. I’ve been gone from there for 14 years.
Juju
@opiejeanne: Welker probably picked out and tried the dress on with a group of women who donât like her.
wjca
The fraction of attempted calls by polling organization which are answered is tiny. And those who answer are heavily skewed towards older voters. Overall, younger voters are more liberal voters (current company possibly excepted). So we start out handicapped in the reults.
Polling organizations try to compensate for this, but their success in doing so is questionable. And, to be fair, it’s difficult when you only have a few thousand data points to begin with. That’s why 538’s collection of poll results works better than most individual polls: they are at least dealing with a larger (albeit still miniscule) number of respondents. “Better”, of course, compared to a low bar.
laura
@Juju: Kennedy was an MTV VJ (music video television video jockey) who self-identified as a young conservative, who grew up and is a self-identified conservative on several infotainment platforms. So she’s got that going for her.
Eyeroller
@wjca:Â More polling data doesn’t help when there is a systemic bias present in multiple polls. If the small and shrinking response rate is an issue like we think it is, it is going to be an issue for most polls.
Barbara
@opiejeanne: I try to stick to the positive: Lynda Carter and Gisele Fetterman both look fabulous. Also Deb Haaland and a few others — Karine Jean Pierre and Madison Prewett.
As for Kate Bolduan, my assessment is based on the fact that I used to sew a lot and I actually made a lot of my own maternity clothes. At the risk of sounding catty, her outfit looks like it would finish in last place on the “couture week” episode of Project Runway. It has an incoherent design and it looks like the top and bottom were hand sewn together by someone in a hurry. Like they mangled the skirt they had been working on and came up with that red satin sheath in a hurry — or vice versa. Weird looking.
wjca
Wrong. Just wrong.
It will turn on what female voters think of Dobbs. Highlighted by how Republican state legislatures are reacting to it.
NotMax
@Citizen Alan
Freakers or go home.
:)
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Yes, it’s nearly impossible for a major party candidate to get less 40%. Even Mondale got around 40%. The only exception may be Bush and Dole, simply because Perot had a good third party showing in 92 and 96.
Baud
@wjca:
Dobbs should help, but white voter sentiment has a longer pedigree and is more fundamental IMHO.
Another Scott
@Juju: I think she has a show on SiriusXM.
But I’m not interested enough to look.
AFAIK, the purpose of fashion shows is to get attention. Only a few can do that with really well made, flattering, clothing. Others go for the shock value. It’s a thing. It’s a distraction from the troubles in the world for a few hours. I’m Ok with it.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Barbara
@wjca: I think the main undercurrent for me is looking at the Republican primary results in suburban counties like outside of Philadelphia. Nikki Haley was selected by more than 25% of Republican voters in places like Montgomery and Bucks County Pennsylvania.
In my experience, women are the backbone of party infrastructure in places like this. If they won’t go to bat for the party then no one else is going to do it.
Nelle
@Elizabelle: Thank you for kind words.
I would say that I go into conversation without the intention to change anyone’s mind. I do hope to introduce a question in their minds that gets them thinking. An example, the woman sitting next to me on a 12 hour flight who wanted me to know that she didn’t believe in vaccines and that she too overmectin, and was concerned I might be shedding vaccines on her? I briefly said I was grateful for the polio vaccine when I was a child, then changed the subject.
But I brought up whether our government should be based on the Constitution or the Bible. “The Bible!,” she answered triumphantly. I agreed that there are so many things in the Bible that would be good in government , such as giving refuge to foreigners and caring for the least in society. But would she want to have to marry her brother-in-law if her husband died? Her eyes narrowed. So many contradictions in the Bible itself. Then what about other religions or those who don’t believe?
She decided the Constitution might work better. Then it was time to sleep. I suspect she’ll go back to Fox, but there will be a little unease, a pebble in her shoe.
Juju
@laura: Thanks. Iâve never heard of her and I donât think Iâve missed anything, in that regard. By the time I was able to get MTV, no cable where I lived, I didnât care anymore.
Baud
@Nelle:
You’re a nicer person than I am.
Another Scott
@Nelle:
Nominated.
:-)
It’s always interesting to see the rusty gears start turning when they haven’t been used for a while, isn’t it?
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Brachiator
@Marmot:
A distinction with no difference. Nerds and dorks are often equally reviled by the Cool Kids.
Barbara
@Baud: It really depends on the state. Yes, that is definitely true in the South — 100% agreed. It is increasingly true in the upper Northwest (Dakotas and Idaho) and other low population “mountain” states like Wyoming.
It is less true in Pennsylvania and Michigan, which have counterweights of labor and large suburban populations. I think Wisconsin is more like them than it is like the others that might go either way — Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.
But the commonality in all cases is that Older + Rural + White = Republican.
The tipping point appears to be what constitutes the critical mass of voters in terms of age and rural versus suburban. It’s why Virginia has mostly turned blue at the state level, and Georgia turned blue before North Carolina did, and South Carolina is unlikely to be blue anytime soon.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Yep and many of the prominent leaders anti-abortion movement are white women.
We will see this election whether prochoice white women outnumber the anti-choice ones. That could make a difference in states like Texas.
Jackie
@Nelle: Thatâs how I respond to those sorts of discussions. I donât argue; I plant seeds for them to ponder on.đ¤
schrodingers_cat
@Nelle: You have a lot of patience I must say.
Nelle
@Nelle: Another thing I do is try to sniff out areas where we agree and build on that. Also, I just listen , asking them about what they most care about. Sometimes I follow up by asking what they’d like to see be done about it. The 19 y.o. guy who came to check our air conditioner last week immediately said housing. But he surprised me by finding me, after he was done, and said, “There’s something else. There needs to be a way for people my age, people not in college, to meet people to date, a way other than social media.” We never talked politics, but it got me thinking about sponsoring some social gatherings, board game nights or something, for young people.
The whole thing is to build relationships and community, more than to mine them for votes.
Lapassionara
@Nelle: Asking questions is a good strategy, I think. I also have familiarized myself with some of the rules set forth in Deuteronomy and Leviticus, just to see if they really want to adhere to Mosaic law. I donât think I have ever changed anyoneâs mind, though I suppose I would not be likely to find out.
Another Scott
@Brachiator: Then there are Freaks and Geeks.
;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
schrodingers_cat
New England is the exception to this rule. I have no idea why. I live in a dark blue part of MA and it is fairly rural. In MA the purplish towns are the outer ring of towns surrounding Boston. Not exactly rural.
ETA: The racists comments I have heard IRL in western and central MA have been directed against mostly against Puerto Ricans
ETA2: This area (western Mass) also was at the forefront during the Revolutionary War and was an abolitionist stronghold in the run up to the Civil War. This area also welcomed Jewish refugees in the interwar period in the 20th century. So I would say it has been more liberal than the other states/colonies.
Of course dealings with native Americans were not so benign.
Soprano2
@Richard Fox: How I take that is “Gas and groceries were cheaper in 2019 than they are now, prices went up a lot and I blame Biden.” They’ve blocked 2020 out of their memory. Of course, they don’t remember all the bad stuff because it mostly didn’t affect them.
Juju
@Another Scott: I donât have Sirius and have no desire to get it in the future. Iâve listened to it for a few minutes when I have had the occasional rental car, but I found it irritating, and if I ever found her show while I was trying to figure out the Sirius, I would have thought lifeâs to short and turned it off.
Baud
@Soprano2:
They’ve blocked it because it interferes with the result they want to reach.
Ruckus
@Patricia Kayden:
This country is rather divided politically, with a rather large range of differences of opinion of what the government should look like and do. One side favors the country and the human population and the other side favors money, even as many of it’s voters don’t seem to have large/huge sums of it. Maybe it’s the hate of other humans that joins them together. Who knows? Maybe it’s one side actually likes decency and the other side has no idea that the word even exists.
opiejeanne
@Barbara: I agree about those being nice and appropriate dresses, and I actually laughed when I saw John Fetterman’s whole outfit. It was nicer than I expected.
I had a costuming business in SF in the 1990s-early 2000s, mostly making dance costumes for studios but also for skaters, both ice and roller (one was worn by a client on the poster for the national roller skate championships), cabaret shows, stage plays, prom dresses, and one Scottish ball gown. I wish I had a picture of that one.
I hear what you’re saying about all of that outfit: it just doesn’t work. I generally dress in jeans and t-shirt because I’m lazy and don’t care that much (at 74 I’ve earned it), but I have better outfits than that in my closet that I could certainly wear on the red carpet. I haven’t made anything for myself in years, other than a pajama top, and recently I’ve been making doll clothes and quilts, but I do know how to dress. I dug through my closet last week and put together some nice and appropriate clothes to wear to a fancy engagement party.
Another Scott
@Soprano2: “Yeah, Obama left TIFG a pretty good economy didn’t he? Then a lot of bad things happened. The pandemic (remember when it was impossible to find toilet paper and flour in the grocery store?), russia’s invasion of Ukraine and destruction of grain exports, etc., … But inflation is way down, people’s paychecks are growing in ways that haven’t happened in a long time, and good investments for the future are happening everywhere. We’re headed in the right direction again…”
Nelle probably has better pointers. ;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Barbara
@schrodingers_cat: Yeah, New England is regionally distinct, I will give you that. I suspect it has something to do with lack of Evangelical influence as well as the lack of race-based divisions in local political organizations.  You can’t get away from those two things in the South. Look at the extent to which a politician like Nikki Haley internalized race baiting even as she tries to present an image of being practical and finding “commonsense” answers.
gwangung
@wjca:
538’s collection of polls averages out the various compensations each individual poll uses, so the biases of the compensation models are lessened. But it doesn’t touch any systematic bias in the sampling themselves (the non-response bias), and it never will.
schrodingers_cat
@Barbara: Organized labor was pretty strong here (and in NY too) compared to the rest of the country.
karen marie
@Soprano2:
What do you mean it didn’t affect them – they were inconvenienced!
Omnes Omnibus
@Barbara:Â â
Massachusetts Is also quite tiny. No matter where you are, you are never really far from an urban area.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
I’m most interested in seeing labor’s influence in this election.
Brachiator
@Another Scott:
As the secretary said of Ferris Bueller…
Barbara
@gwangung: But that assumes that the cohorts being combined did not internalize the same kinds of errors. If most of them are biased in the same direction (as in, utilizing the same flawed assumptions to try to normalize the results) then the combined results will simply reflect if not actually amplify the errors found in the individual polls.
Barbara
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes, I agree. When you drive through Massachusetts and indeed most of the New England states, it never truly feels rural. I think that might actually have something to do with the prevalence of colleges and other institutions that tend to draw urban type cultural features.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Haven’t many big unions endorsed Joe Biden, already?
schrodingers_cat
@Barbara: Have you driven through the Berkshires in MA. Or the White Mountains in NH? Or most of Vt and ME for that matter? You can drive in ME sometimes for hours without encountering any towns, places that have no names but are just a grid on the map with some numerical identifiers.
Maine is very libertarian though. Not as liberal as MA. And very white. But W lost ME both times he ran. It has become redder since I left in mid aughts.
John S.
@schrodingers_cat:
It was an electoral college blowout, but Hoover did in fact win 39.6% of the popular vote in the 1932 election.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
Yes. But they still have to GOTV. Most unions endorse Dems, so that’s nothing new.
Nettoyeur
@Eyeroller: Because ordinary people finally got some money and the rich got even more, and all are spending like crazy.
Baud
@Nettoyeur:
And extraordinary people hate Biden for it.
Barbara
@opiejeanne: One of my cousins was really active in reenactment events and made her own period specific dresses as well as those for other participants, in the Bay Area. She might actually still be doing it after she retired from her day job. Her mother and my other aunt were both incredibly talented seamstresses — the one did alterations for a high end boutique and the other had her own business making wedding dresses, prom gowns and doll clothes. My mother, being the youngest, never had to get good at those things — her sisters did it all for her.
Another Scott
@Barbara: +1
“Random” polls have to normalize the responses, somehow, to account for lack of true (appropriate) randomness. They often do that by looking back at earlier results. When some black swan like TIFG (or a pandemic with enhanced voting options) shows up, it changes the universe of voters who participate. All they can do is guess about what that means to the results.
Polls that ask the same group of people their opinions over time can address the randomness problem and potentially be useful. (Dornsife was one in 2016 that I tried to poo-poo that worked that way.) Assuming one has an at least quasi-fairly representative group of people from the beginning…
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Barbara
@schrodingers_cat: Well, Maine isn’t really like the others. And its greater rural character is one among other explanations for why it is the only state in New England that still has a Republican senator.
And yes, I have driven through the Berkshires, more than once actually, usually in connection with dropping off or picking up a kid at summer camp. My husband went to boarding school in Western Massachusetts, a cousin lived in Bennington Vermont, and one of my kids went to school outside of Albany, NY, so we have actually spent a fair amount of time in the area.  Even in “rural” Berkshires, you find — just to name a few at random — places like Tanglewood, and the Sterling and Francine Clark museum in Williamstown.
schrodingers_cat
@John S.: Yeah I know, It surprised me.
schrodingers_cat
@Barbara:Agreed. I just added a note to my original comment. But its not red, its purple even now. Forget rural, ME actually has many areas that are forests. And area wise its quite large compared to the other New England states.
ME Rs are typically not the evangelical cray cray variety. Although Susan Collins is pretty vile. I had many R friends in ME, now they have either become Ds or are independents.
The ones who are still R have become quite unhinged.
TBone
@Harrison Wesley:Â the major DelCo biker gang is the Pagans
https://www.delcotimes.com/2023/03/31/pagans-peacefully-protest-filming-at-ridley-sports-bar/
They had the infamous Castle, there’s a gruesome novel about their history with Tinicum swamp.
https://www.patriotledger.com/story/entertainment/2022/03/17/riding-evil-depicts-double-life-undercover-agent-biker-gang-pagans/9398921002/
The entire class spectrum is present in DelCo, very much so.
BlueGuitarist
@Elizabelle:
A Nelle video on zen and the art of patient canvassing would be awesome!Â
meanwhile, some useful tips in these canvassing guides:
https://sisterdistrict.com/library/field/canvass-training-guide/
Video link doesnât work, but text is useful.
https://swingleft.org/p/resources
scroll down a little for the engage with voters resources;
the video is encouragement to canvass, not how to canvass, some useful info in guide.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@TBone: Are you local to me? The City of Chester is a neighbor of mine, and I’ve lately been attending Zulene Mayfield’s biweekly community meetings. She is truly amazing not only in what she gets done, but about how she stays abreast of new issues. Her team is especially good at sniffing out when a company is trying to quietly buy up land and get permits for a new toxic plant.
One thing I’ve learned from is that even “green” projects can have a toxic effect on their immediate neighbors, and if they do it’s likely somebody is going to try to put one in Chester. One of the recent issues she is fighting is “hydrogen hubs” for that reason.â
Companies often use “we’ll bring jobs” as a selling point, but I think the experience of Chester locals is that if there are any jobs, it isn’t any of the locals getting them. That happened with a big casino that located there not too many years ago.
schrodingers_cat
@Barbara: You should stop by and visit the next time you are there. We can have BJ meetup. I am not quite in the Berkshires, but close by.
Barry
@Marmot:Â â
“This is largely Dork Prom.”
Promenade of the Presstitutes.
John S.
@schrodingers_cat:
Itâs telling that the Democrats were in the wilderness for decades prior to 1932. Republicans were fully in control, and fucked up the country spectacularly.
Democrats were elected in a wave in 1932 and started turning things around. And yet, the electorate always forgets that every fucking time the GOP is in control, everything goes to shit, and the Democrats always have to clean up their messes.
Another Scott
ICYMI, hall of fame trolling by 3 Year Letterman today.
[ chef’s kiss ]
Cheers,
Scott.
Brachiator
@wjca:
Weighting methods are fairly straightforward and generally reliable. And this is also why margin of error is important.
You don’t need large numbers for good sampling results. It’s interesting that this false assumption about statistics never dies.
Barbara
@schrodingers_cat: Well, I would like to visit again — but the cousin died, the kid graduated and my summer camp days are behind me. But we really loved the area and I know we will get back there.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
Well in Arizona the state House voted to roll back the 1864 territorial law, right? Of course, nearly all the Republicans voted against it, but if it passes, they can still pretend they voted for it like they do with Biden’s accomplishments. So it’s all good.
Anyway
@John S.:
That’s why focusing on national percentages make little sense. I hate when people talk about the popular vote. Meaningless in the current system.
NotMax
@TBone
This goes back a ways. Chester* was were we would head annually to shop among a seemingly never ending selection of second-hand (more like third-hand) refrigerators to drag back to the dorm rooms at Swarthmore.
;)
*Also the name of W. C. Fields’ fictitious son on radio until his sponsor, a competing cigarette brand. very belatedly caught on and objected.
Ohio Mom
@Nelle: One thing that people who study childhood development and learning have established is how much repetition is needed for a student to fully absorb new material.
Itâs roughly reflective of IQ, students with higher IQs need less repetition, students who are not academically gifted need more (Iâll hasten to add, that is what IQ is, a score that shows how quickly you learn. It doesnât show such things as social skills, emotional intelligence, specific talents (e.g., musicality, athletic prowess, etc.)).
All way of saying, your little lesson might not have totally convinced your seat mate but it was one more check mark on the list of presentations needed for the new material to be integrated into her knowledge base.
TBone
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: exactly correct, every word. I lived in Drexel Hill as a young kid, and then Media/Swarthmore/Brookhaven area from junior high till about 9 years ago
Baud
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
Poly Sci 101.
TBone
@NotMax: it was a beautiful small city way back when! I didn’t know that W.C. history though, it made me đ
My doctor lived in Swarthmore he was very eccentric and a lovely man. Built harpsichords and painted like a Dutch Master. All visits any time of day or night occured in his huge Victorian mansion near the dorm houses
Barbara
@schrodingers_cat: My SIL now lives in Portland, Maine most of the year so we still have reasons to visit. Travel is a little out of bounds right now because I just had a hip replacement. Doing okay, but really, really would like to get back to a normal level of activity!
BlueGuitarist
@John S.:
Would be interesting to see how much the county-level Hoover vote matches the Trump vote (outside the south).
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@TBone: Don’t want to dox myself too exactly, but I am at the moment sipping a coffee in a Media cafe, and my favorite coffee hangout is in Swarthmore.
Now I’m waiting for the reply where I find out you’re 3 tables away from me.
Ruckus
@Soprano2:
Maybe they aren’t old farts who remember what things cost when they were younger, like gasoline which is 20 or more times more expensive. Or cars. First new car I brought cost $2200 in 1968 and the last one I bought cost $22,000 in 2017. At least it is a much better vehicle. Of course wages are slightly higher than they were 49-50 yrs ago as well.
Barbara
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: â Any updates on the Arizona Senate? I thought the Senate has always been the greater obstacle and that the House had actually voted previously to repeal.
NotMax
@TBone
Can still conjure up the taste the cheesesteaks from Pinocchio’s in Media. Two varieties: everything hot or everything sweet. Heavenly balm for the late night munchies.
Baud
Via Reddit, a preview of our possible future if we don’t turn out.
TBone
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: Alas! Alack! I’m now 3 hours away in Union County, I live on the edge of Bucknell golf course
Am jealous about your location right now đ
TBone
@NotMax: oooooohhhhh
now you’ve done it
A DelCo friend picking up his daughter from State College today stopped by this morning with care package but no cheeseteaks and I have the munchies
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Barbara: Had to Google for it. Found this article. Won’t come up for a vote till at least May 1, and they’re going to need crossover Republicans again to pass it.
Also, this:
Ohio Mom
@opiejeanne:
I also have some very rarely worn dressy clothes in the back of my closet (most all from thrift stores!) and could pull together an appropriate, classy and flattering outfit without any trouble were I invited to the WHCD. Though I donât have any high heels anymore, Iâd have to buy those.
Maybe those awful outfits were a product of celebrities always having to wear something new and provocative. I caught my cousin in the same dress for two bar mitzvahs in a row, a star canât get away with that.
I really liked VP Harrisâs dress. She seems to understand that she canât be outrageous or show cleavage and expect to be taken seriously as a senior official and eventual likely presidential candidate. She was elegant and looked comfortable, too.
japa21
Regarding polling. A poll is only as good as its ability to predict actual turnout. They frequently use pass turnouts as a predictor of current turnout. In 2016 a lot of normal nonvoters turned out for Trump, enough to make a difference.
A major factor in turnout is voter age. In a lot of the most recent elections, younger voters have turned out in higher numbers. This is not necessarily going to be reflected in polling. Also, female voter participation has also increased.
And one other very important factor this year is the number of “freedom of choice” initiatives on ballots in key states. This was a major factor in 2004, specially in Ohio where anti-gay rights initiatives were on the ballot, increasing GOP turnout.
All of this presents a problem for pollsters.
And yes, it is still too early, but recent trend lines have been good.
NotMax
@Ruckus
Menu board from what passed for an ever so slightly upscale chain of hamburgeries in NYC in 1964.
;)
Eyeroller
@Ohio Mom:Â Media people acting like/expecting to be treated as celebrities is a big part of the problem IMHO. Why did they even have a red carpet at this event?
Eolirin
@schrodingers_cat: Union endorsements only matter so much. What the rank and file members do will matter. There’s more Trump support in certain white dominated unions’ membership than is ideal. Whether they’re willing to reward Biden’s strong support of labor over cultural issues is an open question.
NotMax
@japa21
“Public opinion polls are rather like children in a garden, digging things up all the time to see how they’re growing.”
– Adlai Stevenson
.
Baud
@NotMax:
Dude, he lost twice.
BlueGuitarist
@Baud:
In PA, AFL-CIO has endorsed many Democrats and a couple of Republicans.
But endorsing that one Republican incumbent for state senate is likely to keep an R majority in the state senate. He is terrible on abortion and guns, and even though he sometimes says he supports labor on some issues, none of those will get a vote as long as Rs have a majority.
Ruckus
@schrodingers_cat:
There is a segment of humanity that always seems to be in competition with the rest of humanity. They have to be better or at least seen as better. To my mind they aren’t but then they are the ones in competition with everyone else, I would just like to keep existing. As I look back on a long life – born in the first half of the last century, the world has changed just a tad, humanity has changed some as well, both for the better and for the not so much different. Most of us don’t know each other more than what we say here and will never see each other in person. Yet we can still have discussions and points of view, trade recipes and laughter. As I look back at the differences between when I was a kid and now, the differences are rather large and yet not so much. The exterior of life is massively different and the interior is easier and yet not near as much different as the exterior. I was born at a time before supermarkets, as others here were as well. Shopping for food was massively different. A different place for each segment of food, meat, fish, vegetables/fruit, flour, baked goods, etc. We had a bakery truck that drove through the neighborhood. Packaged food was the basics, flour, sugar, salt, corn meal. Few had a TV and there was very little to watch if you did. A car was basically an expensive joke with wheels. The world has changed just a tad in my very, very close to 75 yrs.
opiejeanne
@Ohio Mom: I liked the Veep’s dress, and I think I’ve seen it once before. Shiny fabric (this was all sequins) can add weight to your figure if not chosen carefully, but it looked great on her. I liked the upper part of the dress a lot.
I refuse to wear heels these days. I have some cute flats that work well and are dressy enough. I have worn them to my son’s Vegas wedding and my niece’s backyard wedding.
NotMax
@TBone
In my limited and dated experience the cheesesteaks in the suburbs beat the pants off of anything one can get in Philly.
Chowder or pepper pot soup, however, run the other way. (RIP, Bookbinder’s.)
TBone
@NotMax: that is very true about DelCo cheese steaks but some Philly places have really upped their games. We don’t ever, ever use Whiz in DelCo.
NotMax
@Ruckus
‘Twas a treat when the Dugan’s bakery truck rolled through the ‘hood. Doughnuts were still warm when delivered to the porch.
/date myself much?
Frankensteinbeck
@Betty Cracker:
I think Kennedy’s dress is stunning. Gorgeous. Style for miles. I will grant it doesn’t really fit the person wearing it. Hobble skirt dresses are designed for the slender. The patterning on it requires someone who is visually distinctive to pull it off, and Kennedy does that part okay, but only okay. Clothing and wearer do have to match, or at least complement each other.
@Barbara:
That one is hideous, unfortunately. It looks like runway fashion, which is not meant to be actually worn in public.
Uncle Cosmo
IMO, posting as a retired applied statistician, “polling” is unlikely to be “broken”: The stakes (for political polling as well as the broader field of opinion surveys and market research) are too important for the technically-astute folks who design and conduct polls not to have done everything humanly possible to fight through the acknowledged inaccuracies to maximize the probability of valid results.
What is “broken” is that polls intended for public release are not meant to be accurate and transparent. In effect they are shams that promote particular narratives aimed at generating page-views, shaping rather than reporting public opinion (“push-polls”), and at lowest, actively misleading the people.** The text and sequence of questions, the selection of a sample and how it is “adjusted” to supposedly reflect “reality”, seriously affect how the results are interpreted, but are generally hidden from the public and can only be teased out fitfully and incompletely by highly trained professionals (who are likely too busy to take break from working on their own polls).
The only polls that are anywhere near accurate these days are taken on behalf of candidates and campaign committees and are kept as closely held as trade secrets.*** And they might only be released in their entirety long after the election in question is far in the rearview mirror. (Why would any group paying dearly for an accurate survey provide the results to its opponents for free?)
As voters interested in outcomes, I think our only option is to trust that the upper echelons of campaigns we support receive and are acting on accurate information in the best interests of those campaigns. We can complain about them til we’re blue in the face, but as Election Day draws near we should trust they know their business (and that that business aligns with ours).
** One classic method is to “adjust the turnout model” so that those who respond in preapproved fashions are overrepresented in the results. (Certain GOP-leaning pollsters are infamous for weighting GOP respondents more heavily in early results but reverting to more realistic weights as an election draws near.) Another is not to break down results into subcategories of the sample (“crosstabs”) to mask the proper interpretation. (“The second best way to lie is to tell the truth, but not all of it” – R. A. Heinlein)
*** I understand that chemical companies often keep their processes as closely-held “trade secrets” because, in a business where pennies a ton are often the difference between prosperity and bankruptcy, patents are too easy to steal or tweak just a tad to achieve almost the same output.ââââ
NotMax
@Frankensteinbeck
Not WHCD related, but let us not leave out men’s runway couture.
:)
Frankensteinbeck
@NotMax:
I am shocked that I have never seen men’s runway couture before. That’s pretty mild stuff, but I suppose current Western societal standards have men generally less exotically dressed than women. Same general effect, though. ‘This is what I can do’ rather than ‘This is what I will do for you.’
schrodingers_cat
@Uncle Cosmo: Dana Houle thinks that the public polls are being done on the cheap. Its a matter of GIGO.
mrmoshpotato
@NotMax:
@TBone: It’s noon in the Central time zone, and you two are talking about cheesesteaks. đđĽŠđĽ
schrodingers_cat
@Frankensteinbeck: True in India too. Traditional Indian men’s clothing equivalent of a sari is a dhoti. A cloth worn around the waist. There are many flavors of the dhoti. It is always white. Makes perfect sense for a tropical climate.
Here Shahrukh Khan is wearing it in the Bengali style.
NotMax
@Frankensteinbeck
It can get even more bizarre.
Barbara
@Frankensteinbeck: If I had to guess, the top had previously been attached to a different, much more revealing (as in sheer) skirt in the same fabrication as the top that was considered not to be appropriate for the occasion.
trollhattan
Gettin’ shit done, Biden-style.
cain
@Elizabelle: Trump is forever asking for money and existential crisis that they are always in.
Youd think that if you are giving money and see the man continue to get into more hot water some from opening his big mouth you would have a moment of what the fuck.
Another Scott
@NotMax: I’m sure we all remember that art mirrors life.
Cheers,
Scott.
Soprano2
@karen marie: I don’t mean the Covid stuff, I mean everything else that we thought was horrible but was a blip to most normies. They don’t remember those things.
cain
@Matt McIrvin:
The odd thing is that you think that the DOJ would be all of this. It’s literally one of their charters but so far it seems justice is slow for Russian aligned politicians.
I have not seen any crackdowns on any networks spreading disinformation and the big lie.
wjca
Yup. Like I said, better, but from a low bar.
Another Scott
@cain:
Relatedly?? TheShovel.com.au (from 4/23):
Cheers,
Scott.
wjca
There is the detail that, the fewer data points you have, the larger the margin of error….
wjca
I’m not particularly close to politics in Arizona. But I have the distinct impression that the chances of it getting thru the state senate aren’t particularly high. If you’re close to the situation, is that correct?
EDT I see Barbara (#181) had the same question. The challenge of being in catch-up mode…,
Kay
Just wild:
trollhattan
@wjca:Â â
Find myself thinking they plan to repeal it and bang, immediately replace it with a “reasonable and adult compromise” of a 15-week ban, which will be more palatable come November while being nearly as effective as a full ban. ÂŻ\_(ă)_/ÂŻ
Luther Siler
Refusing to attend the WHCD is just about the only decision that piece of shit made that I fully support. Â I wish to hell that this vile ritual would go away.
Kay
@trollhattan:
The 15 week ban is actually the worst for them because it allows the vast majority of abortions, but still puts pregnant women who are not seeking an abortion at risk of serious disability or death. The 15 week ban threatens the women who don’t get abortions and perhaps were less plugged in to the issue politically.
At some point they are going to have to admit that their legal scheme is just an abject failure. It was poorly thought out- it’s dumb and it doesn’t work.
Steeplejack
@Brachiator:
Will no one think of the wonks?
Kay
@trollhattan:
Every single woman who sued the state of Texas for denying medical care was past 15 weeks and not seeking an abortion but instead seeking to have a baby.
These people are absolute morons on this issue. They can’t write these laws because they don’t understand anything about how this works. They don’t listen. Not teachable.
NotMax
@Kay
Nomination worthy.
Eyeroller
@schrodingers_cat: Even if the sponsors of the public polls were paying the same amount (we could even spot them an adjustment for inflation), with very low response rates the pollster has to call more and more numbers to get a reasonably representative sample. But the sponsor has only paid for so many hours of time, so the quality will drop. And you can’t “model” or “weight” your way out of a sample that isn’t at least decently representative, particularly for subgroups (that’s how you can get things like 33% of African Americans supporting Trump). Campaigns will pay for accurate polling. Media orgs will not, at least not usually.
Steeplejack
@Another Scott:
Greatest spoof account on Twitter (Nitter link), maybe the whole Interwebs. I have been following him for years, and he still gets outraged comments from people who take him seriously. And then his stans will jump on the unfortunates and ask them if they financed their waterbed, etc. đš
Case in point (related to above). Check the comments.
Ruckus
@Eolirin:
They want the world to look like they picture it in their minds. They also think that if everyone was the same as them the world would be a better place. Their minds are broken, so much so that the chance of redemption is extremely small. I like that not everyone is like me, what a boring place that would be. I like that we are different, what I don’t like is that some seem to think they NEED everyone to be like them to justify their existence, and that is so they can justify being the shitty humans they most likely are. Don’t know why but this reminds me of 3 humans that I used to know. First we moved when I was 10-11 yrs old and the next door neighbors were an 80+ yr old couple, 2 of the nicest humans I’ve met. He had worked for (if I remember correctly – it’s been a couple of days…) Standard Oil and had traveled around the world – a lot different feat than today, and I’m not sure I understood what he actually did but I think it was how to purchase oil, where it was and how to get it so we (and the rest of the world) could use it. Very interesting humans. The third was a buddy of mine’s dad who lived in Mammoth Lakes. In the winter he ran the parking at the ski area at Mammoth Mountain. In the summer he worked in construction. A character and a half, who lived a life unlike most that I’ve met.
Barbara
@Kay:Â â Asking for a 15-week ban is conclusive proof that these people have no actual, medically relevant understanding of pregnancy. I suspect that they came up with 15 weeks because someone once told them that amniocentesis couldn’t be performed until 16 weeks and they figured that would prevent any abortion based on chromosomal or other detectable genetic abnormalities. They apparently had no understanding how frequently it would also subject many women to the risk of death through pregnancy complications or sepsis.
I couldn’t read the Alexandra Petri piece today. I feel too much rage at what is happening, that the death of women is seen as more acceptable than the death of a fetus that is going to die anyway. I cannot let myself stoke images of meeting Alito in a dark alley hoping I had a baseball bat in hand. I can’t let myself feel like that.
trollhattan
@Steeplejack: Off-topic but is Nitter working again, or is this a rare surviving redirect?
IIRC guy threw in the towel three or so months ago.
Ruckus
@Kay:
At some point they are going to have to admit that their legal scheme is just an abject failure. It was poorly thought out- itâs dumb and it doesnât work.
I’m pretty sure that most people that firmly believe that they have the right to demand that everyone live the life that they want them to live will never admit that they are wrong, full of shit, and that humanity does not function as they think it does, nor do they have the right to demand of others what they likely would not do if in any of the situations they want to control.
trollhattan
@Barbara:Â â
15 weeks seems nothing more than something workshopped by Frank Luntz to be the “smallest possible number to seem reasonable while simultaneously being a virtual ban.”
“We tried 13 and it bombed.”
cain
@Another Scott: đđ lovely
mrmoshpotato
@trollhattan: Surviving redirect. It’s not the original nitter doot net
(Or “butter” autoincorrect.)
Barbara
@trollhattan: But it’s not a virtual ban. It would enable 90% or more of abortions that currently take place. Anyone can read the Guttmacher analysis of abortion in the U.S. Nearly all abortions occur before the end of the first trimester, basically, 13 weeks. The vast majority abortions that a 15-week ban touches are those being done for medical reasons. It’s completely insane, but it is especially insane when it is being denied during the course of what is clearly a “late” miscarriage that precedes viability and the death of the fetus is inevitable.
Kay
@Barbara:
Well, we can watch when the 15 week ban encounters the first pregnancy complication and “everyone” (Republicans and media) expresses shock. I mean, the message is clear as day to me! No one has to bother to understand anything at all about pregnancy and health care because that only applies to women and we just don’t matter.
Ruckus
@Kay:
Difficult to listen or learn when the mind is closed off tight, the concept that learning is good is replaced with the concept that they have to follow something written over 2000 yrs ago, by people that had to make up how the world works because that was the best/only concept available at the time. The world changes because we discover – learn – pass on that actual learning. We know a dramatically lot more than when I was born over 7 decades ago because (as you know) actual learning is looking at history and what is known today that wasn’t, long and not all that long ago. Wanting things to be the same is the equivalent of sticking one’s head in a hole in the ground, or…..
Kay
@Barbara:
I love how they didn’t even know the scale. It’s a big country! There’s a lot of rapes! We’re talking a large group of people.
Miscarriages, complications in pregnancy, now it’s tens of millions.
Just the cavalier way they went about this is insulting and sexist.
cmorenc
@Baud: exactly. Â Even with the imminent likelihood of war with germany looming over the 1940 election and critical stages of ongoing war with germany and japan in 1944, Â FDRâs GOP opponents both drew substantially more than 40% of the popular vote, and FDRâs popular majority over Dewey was only around 7.5%.
Kay
I spoke to my son in Denmark this morning. I asked him if Danes were paying any attention to the Trump trial and he said no, none at all to the NY fraud trial, but they ARE paying attention to the immunity case at the SCOTUS. They had a whole segment about it on a weekend political show he listens to – they’re horrified and kept returning to the US President sending special forces out to kill political opponents (the hypothetical) :)
Ruckus
@Barbara:
I canât let myself feel like that.
Please don’t.
The people that want us to go back to a time when the bible was THE book of life and everything not in it is wrong. And idiots do not learn easily. Or at all. At some point they decide that learning is beneath them, that everything they need to know is 2000+ years old. They refuse to see that the world has changed somewhat slightly over the last 2000+ years, that humanity actually can learn things that have been discovered since then as well as actually discover more things to learn. And because we have discovered new things that help us learn as well as things to learn, we can learn even more. That is if minds aren’t shut as tight as a bear trap on an ankle. Or shut and locked like a car door. Oh wait, if everything was discovered 2000 years ago, do they know what a car is? Or how much they’ve changed in 138 years? Or how much knowledge has been gained in the last 2024 years?
trollhattan
@mrmoshpotato: Thanks. Glad I didn’t get my hopes up.
trollhattan
Trump finally figured out RFKJr. is after his voters.
https://digbysblog.net/2024/04/28/no-one-will-ever-call-him-subtle/
cain
@Kay: curious, if the presidents assassinated the Prime Minister of UK would he have immunity ?
Steeplejack
@trollhattan:
I don’t know about Nitter in general, but the instance nitter.poast.org has been reliable.
(For those interested who don’t have a Twitter account, change “twitter.com” to “nitter.poast.org” in links to see whole threads.)
Barbara
@Ruckus: I read the WaPo article about the man who was prosecuted for threatening Marjorie Taylor Greene, which definitely underscores for me the wisdom of the Hopium creed, to do more and worry less. This guy had a lot of free time to write postcards, or call or text voters. He is fortunately doing better now and unlike the January 6 crowd, he never acted or planned to act on his threats. Also, MTG comes off like the asshole you already know she is.â
Hob
@trollhattan: Either that, or someone on Trump’s teamâ who’s not as much of an idiot as he isâ advised him that calling Kennedy the most really truly leftist candidate, and emphasizing how much Trump hates Kennedy, might help to drive a little more support toward Kennedy on the left. If he’s going to insult the guy anyway, it’s in his interests not to do so in ways that might make Kennedy sound at all appealing to Trump’s own base.
Again, I don’t think Trump himself is smart enough or subtle enough to make such a plan, but he’s surely not the only person who’s involved in writing for his Truth Social account.
Melancholy Jaques
@Brachiator:
Because it goes against the deeply ingrained beliefs people have about themselves and the world.
Also because stats isn’t really emphasized in middle and high school math classes. I do not know why. Maybe it wouldn’t matter if they did.
Another Scott
@Luther Siler: OTOH, a lot of these big name MotUs, politicians, reporters, and pundits never read the comments on their writings and only hang out with fellow villagers. Making them sit still and listen to 15 minutes of jokes at their expense has some value.
Cheers,
Scott.
wjca
If the PM was (incautiously) visiting the US, then yes. But it’s unlikely the UK would see it the same way if an assassination squad came to them.
It does occur to me to wonder if the UN would find it necessary to relocate. To somewhere diplomatic immunity still had meaning.
Tony Jay
@cain:
Only one way to find out. Plus, no court would ever willingly convict Smilinâ Joe for snapping Mahogany Moneyboyâs neck like a dry twig.
And if he preemptively blew Sir Backstab Slimespineâs knackerâs off, well Iâd forgive him anything
ETA – Hard to imagine Seedless Orangegoon successfully killing anyone. Squeamish creep delegates everything challenging to the minion class.
cain
@wjca: nobody would feel safe coming to the U.S. then.
Absolute immunity is bonkers because it means that to be President puts you above the law.
Imagine if you did kill the PM then created more crimes to blame it on some hapless person and then just kept criming.
The fact that the SCOTUS would even entertain this is some stupid shit.
cain
@Tony Jay: đđđ
wjca
What strikes me as more bonkers (is that even a thing?) is the idea that said immunity would continue after leaving office. But that seems to be what is involved in, for example, the classified documents case.
Baud
@cain:
Labour or Tory?
Quinerly
@cain:
What if a president ordered the assassination of a corrupt Supreme Court Justice whose wife was involved in a coup attempt?
Another Scott
@cain: AFAIK, there’s actually a law against assassinations. But the GWOT made an exception big enough for TIFG to drive a few drones through.
Grr…,
Scott.
Baud
@Quinerly:
You should be on the Supreme Court.
smith
@Quinerly: Hell, forget the wife, just go straight for the corrupt Supreme Court justice.
japa21
@Another Scott:Â But if he’s immune, he can break the law.
Geminid
Florida jackals may be interested to know that the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman will anchor off of Miami Beach for Miami Fleet Week, starting May 5. That will be quite a sight.
Baud
@Geminid:
How does the size compare to those mammoth cruise ships that sail from Miami?
wjca
The whole point of immunity is that he can’t break the law. Because, if he does it, it isn’t illegal by definition.
Laws are just for the little people, taken to its logical conclusion and institutionalized.
Quinerly
@Baud:
Many people have said………
Another Scott
@japa21: We’ve been here before – The David Frost interview with Nixon in 1977:
I continue to think that’s a bogus argument.
If a president has to break the law for national security, then afterwards she should stand up explain why and accept the consequences. Not try to argue that she’s above the law (even in national security cases). They get the big chair because someone has to make the tough decisions; not because they’re so delicate that they have to be protected from any questioning or any consequences for their decisions.
TIFG’s immunity argument is beyond that and is nonsensical.
Grr…,
Scott.
cain
@japa21: there is no law, there is only his law. Is it a crime to not enforce the laws of the U.S.? He could pretty much do whatever he wants .. because he is protected from any consequences.
rikyrah
@TBone:
Just looked up the demographics of Chester, PA. Majority Black townđđđ
cain
@Another Scott: the thing is .. everyone knows that this is only for Trump because no one else in the long history is the US has committed a crime against the nation.
Have presidents done something illegal.. likely. But only two have been caught doing it and one had to vacate or face justice.
The argument that a president needs immunity to do their jobs when Trump is the only one out of the 45 other presidents who needed it is pretty nonsensical.
It shows how fucked up this court is. 2nd term Biden needs to appoint more justices and start passing laws on some prohibitions.
Geminid
@Baud: Maybe the same size. More imposing, though. Air craft carriers look heavy.
The Truman and its crew will be taking a break from pre-deployment exercises. They’ll probably be sailing to the Mediterranean before too long, after some time back home in Norfolk.
cain
@rikyrah: we have seen this story before haven’t we ? Pick the black majority town for all the toxic crap. Run the highway through it .. pipelines. It’s no big deal .. racism alive and well.
Eyeroller
@Melancholy Jaques: The sample still has to be representative. If it’s truly random (which it pretty much never is) and fully representative, it can be astonishingly accurate with a small number of responses. But if the pollster can’t get a representative sample, then they have to weight it and construct a model. Up to a point that can also be pretty accurate. But eventually it breaks down. In the current argument we are having, some of us think that the people who answer calls from unknown numbers are demographically different, regardless of age, from those who don’t. And I think some pollsters are arriving at this conclusion as well. There’s no weighting or modeling that can correct that.
mrmoshpotato
@Another Scott: Well, when the president does it ⌠that means that it is not illegal.
-Dickhead Nixon
smith
I’d say they are psychologically different even if they are demographically similar, and that makes all the difference when it comes to voting. If that’s true, there is no way using demographics to weight the sample to make it reflect the whole population.
lowtechcyclist
@Brachiator:Â â
But you need large numbers for small variances, which usually amounts to the same thing.
lowtechcyclist
@rikyrah:Â â
And exactly nobody here is surprised by this.
But John Roberts says systemic racism is a thing of the past, so we don’t need that silly old Voting Rights Act anymore.
Matt McIrvin
@lowtechcyclist: Large numbers bring down the MoE from pure sampling error, but it’s something of a diminishing return because it goes down like 1/sqrt(N), and usually, the systematic errors in your results (which large N doesn’t help with) are going to be the dominant problems before you get to N=1000 or so.
Quinerly
@mrmoshpotato:
“How about President Ford’s pardon? Very controversial in the moment. Hugely unpopular, probably why he lost in ’76. Now looked upon as one of the better decisions in presidential history I think by most people. If he’s thinking about ‘if I grant this pardon to Richard Nixon, could I be investigated myself for obstruction of justice on the theory that I’m interfering with the investigation?”
Justice Brett “I like beer” Kavanaugh
Last week
Geminid
I was looking at Axios journalist Barak Ravid’s social media account for news on the war in Gaza, and I saw a picture from the White House Correspondents dinner. It was of Ravid and President Biden standing next to each other smiling. Ravid hasd just received the Aldo Beckman Award for overall excellence in White House coverage.
Ravid has been a go-to source throughout the Gaza war, at least for the Biden administration’s version of events. It’s like Bill Burns and Jake Sullivan have Ravid on speed-dial.
Geminid
@Geminid: Ravid took a bow on Twitter, thanking his editors and his sources. I was pleased to see a reply from Turkish journalist Ragip Soylus congratulating Ravid on his “well-deserved” honor and Ravid’s response: “Than you, my friend.”
Both Ravid and Soylu are in their forties, and made their reputations as journalists at the national level before being recruited by Washington-based Axios in Ravid’s case, and by London-based Middle East Eye in Soylu’s.
I had never heard of either reporter until a year ago. Laura Rozen introduced me to them by reposting their reporting (I found Rozen through Cheryl Rofer). Now I check out Soylu first thing every day; I figure they’ve been up long enough in Istanbul to process the night’s news. I’ll check Ravid out later because he’s working on District of Columbia time.