Ron Brownstein — the one political reporter I take seriously (and not just because of this) — has a good piece on the current political big picture:
“No president in my lifetime has had this opportunity to fund public investments,” says Robert Reich, a University of California (Berkeley) public policy professor who advised Obama’s campaign.
[….]From a Democratic perspective, much of that investment — for new roads, transit systems, or school construction — serves the dual function of creating short-term jobs and encouraging long-term growth. But the bill also emphatically expands programs targeted more at the far term than the near term — from aid to schools in low-income areas ($13 billion) to expanded college loans ($16 billion) and scientific research ($10 billion).
In normal times, Congress might never enlarge so many programs at once. But, as with Reagan’s tax cut, the crisis-induced demand for action may suspend the normal laws of political gravity — and allow Democrats to redirect federal priorities as boldly as Reagan did. “This is a once-in-a-25-year opportunity to [implement] a lot of our agenda,” a top House Democratic aide says. Largely for that reason, most congressional Republicans are likely to resist the plan, no matter how many more tax cuts Obama offers them.
I think this is about right.
Napoleon
Once in a 25 year opportunity? Are you kidding, I am 47 years old and the last opportunity the Democrats had like this I was still learning how to ride my tricycle.
Of course the Reps are not going to vote for it which is why the Dems need to blow up the filibuster, other wise we are headed into a depression.
pseudonymous in nc
And this is why it’s important that the Senate Fucktard Caucus — let’s say, 36 of the 41 GOPpers — needs to be publicly humiliated. The problem that the Dems face is really the Congressional equivalent of having Kerners around: picking out one line to say ‘OH NOES $$$$ FOR TEH PERVERTED ARTS’ gets the cablenews idiots going, whereas saying ‘all of that stuff which you can barely imagine not being part of the American fabric? How about some more of it?’ generates a ‘meh’ from them, because that’s all lame PBS stuff, innit?
Conservatively Liberal
Oh the opportunity is there and Obama wants to take it, but with the spineless Democrats at the helm we are not going anywhere fast as long as the Rushublicans can poison any stimulus.
Once in a lifetime or a once in 25 year opportunity, the Democrats will blow it leaving Obama holding the bag and giving the Rushublicans the opening they have been looking for to use as a comeback.
You can’t stand up and be counted when you don’t have a spine.
Rome Again
Can’t we just corral all them Pubbies into a play pen, give them a bunch of nerf balls (so they don’t hurt themselves) and enclose them behind a sound-proofed wall so we can get down to business?
Brick Oven Bill
I try to avoid saying bad things about individuals, but cannot help myself with Robert Reich and Peter Orszag. Robert Reich is dumb, giving him the benefit of the doubt. The conspiracy side of me thinks that he is in on it.
Nobody is buying our debt anymore. Meaning that every dollar we spend inflates the currency. We might be experiencing a short deflationary period as everybody panics and holds onto their cash. But the government will not be able to help itself, and will do the dumb things that Reich is advocating, in the name of combating deflation.
Then, as inflation begins to kick in, as it must (supply and demand Robert), people will panic spend on commodities, as a way to protect their savings. Then we have World Wide Weimar. This is why I believe that gold at $914 is a good deal, if you can afford to put a couple of pieces away. If not, silver dollars are also a good investment.
sgwhiteinfla
DougJ
I am not trying to tell you what to do but you should really consider posting this clip from Rachel Maddow’s show last night. There has not been a better explanation by anyone not even Paul Krugman as to why we need a large amount of spending in the stimulus plan AND why the Republicans are dead wrong. Not that they have the wrong opinion but they are demonstrably and verifiably factually wrong about what is and isn’t stimulus.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/#29062335
sgwhiteinfla
Oh and I think we might want to round up the Red Brigade Force Strikers something or other. It seems a Congressman has blown the cover of a delegation going to Iraq against the advice of security officials by twittering their location after they arrived.
Of course that Congressman is himself a wingnut Republican, but surely they will still be appropriately outraged……right??
LA Confidential Pantload
Somehow I don’t think a $780 billion package with over 40% tax cuts is going to do any of the things posited above. I think we’re fucked – and that would be true no matter who was President, since both Blue Dog Dems and Republicans would sink a real recovery bill in any and all circumstances.
Punchy
SI/ESPN reporting ARod tested positive for ‘roids in 2003.
JL
@Punchy: Gee, Wonder how many times he has been tested since 2003!
The big news though is Phelps smoked pot at a party, oh my. What will we tell the children?
Doug H. (Fausto no more)
Again, I have to ask this question: The Republicans filibuster. Now what?
ATB
Doug J @6
I sent that clip to everyone on my e-mail list and even sent it to the powers that be. I suggested that they should use Rachel’s vid and a few Perot-like Pie Charts to sell this to the American people.
Conservatively Liberal
@LA Confidential Pantload:
Sadly I have to agree with you on this. Right now I am of the opinion that we need a depression and that nothing else is going to prompt action in the right direction. Rome is burning while intellectually challenged Rushublicans and Blue Ball Democrats are playing with gasoline and explosives in an attempt to blow up the remaining Democrats and Obama while leaving themselves intact.
Good luck with that. Ok, not really. I hope it blows the fuck up in their faces. If we end up in a depression at least I can say that it is one that the American public earned. The stupid fuckers voted the assholes in who did this and they deserve whatever they get. I am in this too so while I did not vote for the fuckers who did this I still get to ‘enjoy’ the ride.
JL
@Conservatively Liberal: I appreciated your comments on the open thread site.
dmsilev
@Doug H. (Fausto no more):
Assuming that the Magic Centrist Fairy doesn’t dig up the handful of GOP Senators needed to pass the 60 vote cloture threshold, you mean? Well, then the stimulus bill fails. The next day, the stock market drops by 10%. By the end of that day, the corparatists who pull the strings on the Republicans are on the phone with their puppets explaining in small words just what will happen if they don’t pull their heads from their assess.
After that, I don’t know. I have a sense that for most of the GOP, their case of rectocranial insertion has progressed beyond the point of surgical intervention, so they probably would *still* oppose any sort of bill beyond "all tax cuts, all the time". I would guess that there would be a few that would break away, and the bill would eventually pass.
-dms
Rome Again
@sgwhiteinfla:
Ah, Republicans and their twitter addictions. Gonna get someone in trouble one of these days.
Conservatively Liberal
@JL:
Thanks JL. :)
Joshua Norton
The Repugs are exactly where they’ve always been on issues like this – The New Deal, Social Security, Child Labor, War on Poverty, etc. – on the wrong side. They’re against anything that helps the general population is currently sneered at as "socialism" (except when it helps out their own donors). They’ll vote against it, get their base riled up and defund the programs every chance they get. Then when things run up against the problems they’ve caused, they’ll start crowing what a failure everything is and how they told you so.
In the 200+ year history of the country, the right wing has never changed. Not even their arguments.
Conservatively Liberal
Thanks JL. :)
Rome Again
@LA Confidential Pantload:
I’m afraid you’re right.
Joshua Norton
The Repugs are exactly where they’ve always been on issues like this – The New Deal, Social Security, Child Labor, War on Poverty, etc. – on the wrong side. They’re against anything that helps the general population and is currently sneered at as "sociali sm" (except when it helps out their own donors). They’ll vote against it, get their base riled up and defund the programs every chance they get. Then when things run up against the problems they’ve caused, they’ll start crowing what a failure everything is and how they told you so.
In the 200+ year history of the country, the right wing has never changed. Not even their perpetually discredited arguments.
Rome Again
I suspect Susan Collins will still continue to hold on to the time bomb, clutching it tightly in her arms while holding on for dear life.
par4
After watching the Senate in action the last few days I see why Parliament has been stripping the House of Lords of power.
TheHatOnMyCat
It’s my belief that the whole sham is GOP engineered. Collins and any other R who lines up to "make a deal" is being sent over to do it by the party. These will be senators from states where there is not solid Red voting, who can buy some needed cover with the ruse, who won’t win votes at home by being unalterably opposed.
This protects the main body of GOP senators who will maintain the official "opposition" whose only purpose is to position them for being able to blame the stimulus for a failure to have a recovery in a reasonable time. They are banking on a long, deep dep/re/ce/ssion because any other tack puts them on the desert island of fringitude for a long, long time.
Stuck
OT
Well, that didn’t take long.
Rome Again
@TheHatOnMyCat:
Why is a moderate Republican from the northeast (and one who hasn’t been afraid to side with the left on several occasions) taking orders from extremists in her party? She’s miscalculating. Her constituents are going to remember this, I think.
pseudonymous in nc
I disagree here. I think that
Paul LyndeSusan Collins adores the regular tonguebathing she receives from the Washington Post and certain segments of Sunday punditry. Specter loves playing the coquette. Ben Nelson likes the prospect of being this year’s Lieberman. Mary Landrieu is like Diaper Dave Vitter in that her kink is masochism, albeit in a way that inflicts pain upon her entire state. They are horrible people who have made posturing their principle, and who are elevated by being part of an institution that values posturing most of all.The Grand Panjandrum
I know Reid let the Republican tax-cut only bill get an up or down vote. Why didn’t he force a cloture vote on the stimulus bill before this so-called compromise legislation? Then force a real filibuster and not this BS of going directly to compromise. Force those disingenuous fuckers to read Bill O’Reilly’s latest book into the record. I can just see the mashed up clips of CSPAN coverage Youtube now. It’s fine to be civil but they have got to do a better job of getting the Republicans on the record with real votes, not just veiled threats, and demagoging in front of the press.
Karmakin
I think a lot of the commentary here puts the cart before the horse, to be honest. We all know what NEEDS to be done. There’s no reason to spell it out, however the conventional wisdom is that these things are political non-starters, because they are so against the ingrained character of the US ideology wise that they’re impossible.
It’s these self-imposed handcuffs which are the problem. And to be fair, I feel as though Obama is working very hard and in fact is doing a decent job to take them off. Doesn’t change the fact that they’re there in the first place, and they’re so tight, that it’ll be a bitch to take them off. And you can’t just cut off the hands…because you just can’t.
I’m not a big fan of blaming the politicians solely when a large amount of blame is with the general public at large.
Napoleon
You are being too kind to the general public, I think they are almost entirely to blame.
Reverend Dennis
@Karmakin:
There also seems to be a subtext of "These things are just too big to easily accomplish so why even try?" Not that the problems are going to diminish themselves and not that some of them are so big now because no one has bothered to try in the past.
Conservatively Liberal
While the crooks have already made off with most of the money and the remaining crooks are trying to grab the last few handfuls that are left, it is the people of this country who put the people in power who did this. Whether through apathy in not voting or stupidity in who they voted for, they let this happen and they are not demanding that anyone be held responsible for it. They just want someone to fix it fast so the merry-go-round can keep turning and they aren’t distracted from the mindless pleasures they have adopted to help them forget what a fucking mess this country is in.
No, I think the American public needs a thorough spanking. A reality check of sorts, something to knock them out of their dreamlike states and force them into demanding immediate action. So if this all fails I am not going to really worry about it other than to focus on staying alive and taking care of my family. That is about all I can maintain any control over, so why worry about the rest of it when there is nothing I can say or do that will make the outcome any different?
I have railed against this shit like any other DFH out there and it didn’t prevent the mess we are in so why should I continue banging my head against the fucking wall? I might as well sit back and enjoy watching the disaster unfold because that is all I am going to get out of it. Every time I hear some fucking Bush/Reagan/Rushublican spout off about how this is all the fault of Obama and the Democrats, I am going to verbally beat the shit out of them right then and there and let them know that they are getting exactly what they deserve.
I have had it. Everyone wants Obama to save our asses but do we really even deserve that? Our fucking leaders can’t lead so we are hoping against hope that Obama will save the day for us. When he fails I will not blame him one bit, I will blame the assholes who got us in this mess and who failed us when we needed them most. He is ready to lead but a pack of Girl Scouts are better equipped to be led than our current crop of politicians.
It’s almost impossible to make anything good when all you got to work with is a pile of shit. We put that shit in there and now we are asking Obama to do something with it because we can’t and they won’t.
No, we deserve this mess. We earned it.
J Royce
Joshua Norton: In
the 200+2000+ years ofthe countrycivilization, the right wing has never changed. Not even their arguments.Rome died at the hands of their "True Roman" Wealthy Conservatives. And it was all about endless war, free market rapacity, entertainment distractions, religion, and rhetoric even then.
Karmakin
@Conservatively Liberal: Take it down a step. I’m not even talking politics.
People expect their retirement fund to only increase in value.
People expect their home to appreciate in value.
There’s a bunch of other things, I won’t mention, but those are the relevant issues here. The changes in this compromise that we don’t like are targeted to give these upper-middle class people EXACTLY what they want.
The bubbles need to pop. As they say, and should be conventional wisdom right now, don’t bet anything you’re not prepared to lose. There are millions of people who will be living off of Social Security or other government run public old-age benefits packages (This isn’t just an American problem. This is a 1st world problem), and able to..well..live.
What I say to these people, is if people like my grandmother can do it. Why can’t you?
SGEW
What do you mean we, white man?
[edit: plz rd w/ snark-goggles, k?]
Cain
@SGEW:
Indeed. The american public is to blame. Obama has more faith in us than I do. We’re still busy putting whatever team we are over country. It really seems to republicans that actually being a patriot is socialism.
When the peso starts competing with the dollar then we’ll see something. The worse thing is that if the economy tanks it will be Obama who bears it not Republicans. They’ll be 4:1 on the cable chatter talking about how Obama has failed and they tried to tell him. Shit, I’m shaking with rage just as I write this.
I wonder though if those of us who do care, should we be doing those things that Obama asks like those economic parties you host at home or something like that? I’m worried it’s just people who have the same ideas together under one roof.. it really requires a citizen to citizen approach. In a way, we shouldn’t be trusting government to lead.. we should. It just hasn’t gotten bad enough yet. As soon as it hits upper middle class..you’re going to see some serious shit go down.
cain
Conservatively Liberal
@SGEW:
no prob there SGEW, I know exactly where you are coming from…lol
That "we" includes me too, but like I said I am only along for the ride as I am sure you are too. ;)
Karmakin, I will keep it cranked to 11 because that is my preference. My wife and her Auntie K. write to each other (yes, snail mail) regularly and we get updates on the extended family from her regularly. She is a sweet old lady in her late 80’s who has seen it all and lets us know about it. She grew up in Montana in the 20’s through the 40’s and lived the depression. She has been a lifelong Republican only because her husband was a career Navy officer who was a firm Republican (old school type). He passed away a few years ago and Auntie has found her Democratic voice once again. She is now writing about how much worse this is (in her opinion) compared to the 30’s and how much worse she believes this will get.
Her children and grandchildren are losing their jobs or closing their businesses. She fervently hopes Obama is a president in the vein of FDR but she believes that the Republican party will do what the Republicans of the depression were unable to do; stop any recovery. She is retired and is well off, but she is worried for everyone else out there, especially her family. Her own investments have tanked but she is well invested and says she is still doing well despite the losses.
While she was a Republican she said she was always a Democrat at heart and voted so when she could despite her husbands insistence that she vote for ‘their’ party. She believes that FDR saved her small town in Montana, and her siblings and parents were deeply thankful for the help they got when they needed it. She said that we need that kind of leadership again but is concerned that others will do everything they can to prevent it.
Just like the ‘good old days’.
People out there are hurting and the Rushublicans and Blue Ball Democrats are playing games to score political points. Auntie knows that they want Obama to fail, I know they want Obama to fail and I bet a lot of other people are aware of this too.
Maybe it is time to give them what they want. When everything is a smoking wreck then maybe the public will get off of their lazy asses and vote the worthless fucks out of congress, then impose term limits and real campaign finance reform on the replacements. Both parties have failed us and they are unfairly dumping all of this at the door of the new president, ready to blame him when they fail to clean their messes up.
Then again, maybe Obama will pull some miraculous stunt off and get this done right despite the increasing odds against it. If that is the case, the American public will have dodged a bullet they really deserved. I don’t think we are going to be that lucky though. I think this one is coming fast and it will be right between the eyes when it hits us.
pseudonymous in nc
@Conservatively Liberal:
This is where there’s a degree of common ground between the neo-Keynesians and paleocons like Andrew Bacevich. The neo-Keynesian view is that infrastructure shit, once built and built properly, is there for the long term, in the public sphere; Bacevich thinks that the American public, en masse, is in an era of late-Roman-Empire decadence that has been enabled by a political system that permanently lashed to the next election and compelled to feed that decadence, and a media that prizes short-term theatrics.
dbrown
A Democrat says "a lot of our agenda" when they are referring to saving the U.S. and spending our tax money to provide jobs and benefits that may reduce the oncoming wreck that our economy is becoming – when did right wingers completely loose their way? Only the Democrats (non-blue dogs) have a vision that the U.S. comes first and pointless ideology is tossed aside? What has happened to the wing nuts? Are they that far gone that they can’t even see the trees for the forest anymore?
So, this is the result of Ray-gun and the religious wack-o’s – that ideology trumps all. Jesus was an extreme socialist who wanted the rich to give all their money to the poor, he denounced group payer, and when an enemy attacks you, you forgive them. What has happened to the Christians of this country as well?
Obama is trying to save us and all blue-dogs and repub-a-thugs want to do is save some money now only to have the debt loose value later with hyper-inflation thanks to the deficits the repub-a-thugs under bushwhack already created? This is madness.
Conservatively Liberal
@pseudonymous in nc:
I agree with them and that is why I am coming to the conclusion that nothing less than an absolute shock is going to dispel the haze and make people wake up to what has happened.
It’s time for some ‘bad medicine’. Sorry John. ;)
deadrody
Too funny. The horrific recession that is so bad we need to be reminded everyday that the world will end without this stimulus bill – is an "opportunity".
Well no kidding, too bad funding every Democratic wish-list item of the last 20 years while bankrupting the nation doesn’t quite jive with the alleged seriousness of the crisis.
Political opportunism – it’s GREAT!
Joshua Norton
The fact that wingnuts can say things like this with a complete straight face is nothing short of a Seinfeld routine.
The group who just spent 7 years ramrodding spending bills through that put us in this state of bankruptcy by screaming "9/11" and calling everyone else traitors is now decrying "political opportunism".
Toooo funneeeeee right back attcha, asshat.
The wilderness is that-a-way.
Ash Can
@deadrody:
Can anyone tell me what’s wrong with this picture? That’s right, folks — the nation is already bankrupt, and it was the Republicans who did it.
Thank you, deadparrot, for providing a premier example of what’s wrong with today’s Republicans.
Conservatively Liberal
Calculated Risk has a great writeup about the $15,000.00 home buyer credit. His thoughts?
"The tax credit for existing homes does almost nothing to help the economy."
and
"The key problem for housing is prices are too high. How does this tax credit help reduce prices? Why are we trying to artificially increase the turnover rate? And why are we targeting a tax credit at higher income individuals?
This tax credit seems ill-conceived, and probably should be removed from the stimulus package. No one has adequately explained how this helps "fix housing first".
Read it all, it is a good analysis of the credit. I agree with CR’s take on this.
sgwhiteinfla
deadrody says
Ok since you are so "informed" tell me about one of these wish list items that aren’t stimulative. Thats if you ever have the courage to come back and defend your statement.
fledermaus
I guess i find myself in the unlikely position of undertaking a partial defense of the american people. In thier defense its not like they have any significant influence with national government. Institutional groupthink is run rampant among the dc courtier class. Letters and calls were 10-1 against the wall street bonus preservation act, yet it still passed with bipartisan support (see also Iraq, torture, welfare reform, nafta, etc)
Obama might get it but he is powerless against all the dc common wisdom. The US is a one party state with sideshow issues like abortion, gun control, and rhetoric that does not match reality to preserve the illusion of a "choice". We could elect the Dali Lama president and we’d get the same result.
In the words of George Carlin "this country was bought, sold and paid for a long time ago"
jcricket
Let’s not forget that the last great spending spree that was sure to bankrupt the nation, filled with all kinds of make-work projects (almost none of which are contemplated in the current stimulus package), also built the safety net that’s currently keeping 13 million+ seniors from falling into abject poverty, and likely 50 million seniors from being without healthcare.
If the current plan was twice this size, and made funded things that need to be funded anyway – full infrastructure repair, mass transit (high speed train network), electrical grid upgrades, massive wind and solar projects, huge expansion of Medicare/Medicaid, aid to the states 10x the current amount – it would still likely put us in a better position than worrying about short-term deficits.
I have almost no doubt this is only round 1 of the stimulus. There will likely be another one, maybe even equal in size, in 6-12 months. And Democrats better get their act together, because Republican opposition will be even crankier then. The downward spiral will barely be arrested with this plan.
Gay Veteran
The ReThugs didn’t have any problems with building infrastructure in IRAQ
well, actually they didn’t have any problems with just giving to money to war profiteers like KKG (formerly owned by Haliburton)
Reverend Dennis
We can all be confident that deadrody was just as critical of the Republicans’ funding their wish list items during the Bush administration – or not.
Lola
Once this thing is passed, I think most Dems will be thrilled to see the great programs that get boosted from this. I am glad the package is not larger so that we can still pass a green jobs bill and health care. This was the least important battle in my mind so the compromises don’t freak me out. Compromise now, so we won’t have to as much later. Most Americans support health care and won’t appreciate a GOP filibuster on it, whereas the stimulus is understandably less popular.
Chuck Butcher
There certainly is a temptation to look at an emergency and see it as the truck to carry your agenda load. There is a real problem with that view – and it is called the opposition Party. We had a dozen years of Republicans running the show in that exact fashion, calling things by names that they were not and the American voter and pundit class has caught on, to a certain extent.
The whole picture isn’t presented as bits and pieces are sniped. Take Obama’s campaign tax plan, most of the media accurately reported the details, what they did not do was provide one bit of context to the 35-39% percent top bracket, like the rates pertaining from the 60s-90s or the reality of that group’s Adjusted Gross line. It wasn’t pointed out that as percentage of income the tax load on a non-union construction worker exceeds that of the uber rich.
While such a situation is neither fair nor conducive to informed thinking; it is a reality. When you propose spending at the levels of the stimulus bill recognizing reality is a pretty good idea. However laudable as a policy item something may be loading it onto a truck labeled something else begs for sniping and all the "it’s 1% of…" talk is useless after you’ve been headshot.