Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“woke” is the new caravan.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

Radicalized white males who support Trump are pitching a tent in the abyss.

Donald Trump found guilty as fuck – May 30, 2024!

Be a wild strawberry.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

Stay strong, because they are weak.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. do not congratulate. this is not business as usual.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

Fucking consultants! (of the political variety)

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

All hail the time of the bunny!

Too little, too late, ftfnyt. fuck all the way off.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Petty moves from a petty man.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

“Alexa, change the president.”

So many bastards, so little time.

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Archives for 2009

Dead Center

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I just walked downtown and got my hair cut (still going to the same place I have been going for fifteen years, $11 plus tip), and while I was there I read an older issue of TAC that I had not gotten around to yet. That, in and of itself, is amusing. First, I have a ginormous melon. If I were a cowboy I would have to wear a twelve gallon hat. My head is so big I had to special order my hat while I was in the Army, because they usually did not have size 7 7/8’s – 8 in stock. Second, I no longer wear contacts (my logic was there are so many other things I could focus on to fix my personal appearance, so what is another torpedo in a sinking ship? Just wear glasses, they are easier.), and I am blind as a bat without my glasses. To give you an idea how bad my vision is, one day when I was standing at attention in formation in basic training, and I was wearing my birth control glasses (“You’ll never get laid in ’em!”), my Drill Sergeant was behind me, looked through my glasses, and exclaimed: “Holy Cow, Private Cole! Your glasses are so thick you can see the future throught them!” Try standing at attention after that. Thank goodness modern plastics make my glasses much thinner. At any rate, imagine a middle-aged pudgy guy with a basketball sized head wearing an apron and holding a magazine three inches from his face, and you get the picture. The picture portrait of dignity, if you will.

Back to the point. I was leafing through the February 9th edition, and I found this by Jack Ross:

ALMOST COMPLETELY ignored in the excitement over Barack Obama has been the collapse of the New Left revival that peaked between the Nader campaign of 2000 and the Dean campaign of 2003. For a time, with the antiwar movement burgeoning and a deeply unpopular Republican in the White House, the politics of the late 1960s seemed poised to return. Even Students for a Democratic Society revived. But the moment quickly passed. This was more than the end of a fad–it was the death of a distinct American Left. Obama’s mass following and the liberal blogosphere today are moved more by partisanship than ideology, and they have scarcely any sense of a political past. In other words, they have about as much connection to the historic American Left as the pioneers of the New Right had to the Old Right.

To say that Markos Moulitsas and Obama’s liberal netroots represent the triumph of centrism may sound absurd–as absurd as arguing that Richard Viguerie and the 1970s New Right heralded victory for the political Establishment. But Murray Rothbard built a persuasive case for just that claim in a 1977 Libertarian Forum essay, “The New End of Ideology?” The title was a play on Daniel Bell’s The End of Ideology, which celebrated the triumph of the liberal-democratic center–Truman Democrats and Rockefeller Republicans–in the 1950s. Rothbard considered the partisan divide that started to take shape in the late ’70s to be a new end of ideology because it marked a) the final transformation of the American Right into what could be rightly called a conservative movement, characterized by a “drive toward Establishment respectability”; and b) the end of the New Left, in which he and other libertarians once staked a great deal of hope, as it rejoined the Old Left.

***

This, then, is our new end of ideology. The Left has ceased to be the Left, just as surely as by the late 1970s the Right had ceased to be the Right to anyone, like Rothbard, old enough to remember a time when conservatives opposed war and welfarism. In place of the radical Left now stands an optimistic, impeccably patriotic mass movement that is far too young to have a discernible character beyond simple devotion to Barack Obama. If the president should achieve little else than to appoint competent technocrats to do what needs doing in both foreign and domestic affairs, this pragmatism will be the one sure path to success for the Left. Any loyal opposition from the Right will be shaped by this fact, hastening a true end of ideology.

Any thoughts on this? Yesterday, someone remarked that should the GOP continue their headlong descent into oblivion, the Democratic Party will become the new Republican party, and what could possibly happen is a new “left” will emerge in the vacuum. What do you think?

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Bad All Over And Getting Worse

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As bad as it is here, it is looking just as bad or worse elsewhere:

Japan’s manufacturers cut production by a record 10 percent in January and household spending plunged, adding to evidence that the economy in its worst recession in 60 years.

The month-on-month decline in factory output exceeded December’s record decline of 9.8 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. Household spending fell 5.9 percent from a year earlier, the biggest drop in more than two years.

Meanwhile, worst-case scenarios abound:

The global economic meltdown has already caused bank failures, bankruptcies, plant closings and foreclosures and will, in the coming year, leave many tens of millions unemployed across the planet. But another perilous consequence of the crash of 2008 has only recently made its appearance: increased civil unrest and ethnic strife. Someday, perhaps, war may follow.

As people lose confidence in the ability of markets and governments to solve the global crisis, they are likely to erupt into violent protests or to assault others they deem responsible for their plight, including government officials, plant managers, landlords, immigrants and ethnic minorities. (The list could, in the future, prove long and unnerving.) If the present economic disaster turns into what President Obama has referred to as a “lost decade,” the result could be a global landscape filled with economically fueled upheavals.

And it is worth noting that the Republican response so far has been to basically say “no” to every single effort to help remedy this situation. This is the same Republican party who had the following to say about the recession:

– “We don’t believe we’re going to have a recession though.” [Vice President Dick Cheney, 1/30/08]

– “I think the experts will tell you we’re not in a recession.” [President Bush, 2/10/08]

– “The answer is, I don’t think we are in a recession right now.” [Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear, 2/11/08]

– “First of all, we’re not in a recession.” [President Bush, 4/22/08]

– “The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession.” [Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear, 5/7/08]

– “I don’t think we are” in a recession. [Director of the National Economic Council Keith Hennesy, 6/3/08]

– “I think we have avoided a recession.” [White House Budget Director Jim Nussle, 7/31/08]

– “I don’t think anybody could tell you right now if we’re in a recession or not” [Dana Perino, 10/7/08]

One of the chief economic advisers to their then Presidential candidate repeatedly referred to those feeling the pain of the recession as a nation of whiners while suggesting it was all in their heads, and now, as it is blindingly obvious that we are in serious, serious trouble, the leading lights of the opposition party are spending their days getting economic advice from a handyman who could not figure out that because he made significantly less than 250 grand a year he would not be having his taxes increased, taking their political advice from a radio loudmouth, holding panels at their annual conference discussing how Al Franken and ACORN are ruining Democracy, and spending their days questioning whether or not our President is actually an American. Meanwhile, as the DOW looks like it will dip below 7000 on more horrible economic news, the grass roots movement of the party is throwing “tea parties” to protest attempts by the opposition party to address this crisis.

When you hear the wingnuts talk triumphantly about their little tea party today, that is the appropriate context (from the comments: “Remind me, was the original tea party a demonstration against 95% of the colonies getting a tax cut?”). I honestly don’t know how anyone with half a brain still identifies as a Republican or conservative. These guys seem intent on doing to the conservative brand what they did to the name liberal brand, only much more effectively. This is a bankrupt movement.

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A Great Compromise

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I forgot to write about this, but I thought this was a great compromise:

The Pentagon will lift its ban on media coverage of the flag-draped coffins of war victims arriving at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday.

But the families of the victims will have the final say on whether to allow the coverage, he said.

President Obama asked Gates to review the policy, and Gates said he decided after consulting with the armed services and groups representing military families to apply the same policy that is used at Arlington National Cemetery.

“I have decided that the decision regarding media coverage of the dignified transfer process at Dover should be made by those most directly affected — the families,” he said at a news conference.

My only concern about this when the debate was hot and heavy was the possibility that coffins of American dead would be shown in the media somehow before families were notified. That possibility just horrified me. If families have to be asked prior to the photographing, then clearly they have been notified, so my only concern has been met. This seems to me to be an excellent compromise, with one caveat- I hope something is done to make sure families are not pressured. I’m assuming this could be easily avoided by having the DoD serve as the intermediaries between the families and the media.

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The CDO Mess

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And yet another terrifying piece, this time in the Financial Times (via memeorandum):

But now, at long last, one shard of reality has just emerged to piece this gloom. In recent weeks, bankers at places such as JPMorgan Chase and Wachovia have been quietly sifting data trying to ascertain what has happened to those swathes of troubled CDO of ABS.

The conclusions are stunning. From late 2005 to the middle of 2007, around $450bn of CDO of ABS were issued, of which about one third were created from risky mortgage-backed bonds (known as mezzanine CDO of ABS) and much of the rest from safer tranches (high grade CDO of ABS.)

Out of that pile, around $305bn of the CDOs are now in a formal state of default, with the CDOs underwritten by Merrill Lynch accounting for the biggest pile of defaulted assets, followed by UBS and Citi.

The real shocker, though, is what has happened after those defaults. JPMorgan estimates that $102bn of CDOs has already been liquidated. The average recovery rate for super-senior tranches of debt – or the stuff that was supposed to be so ultra safe that it always carried a triple A tag – has been 32 per cent for the high grade CDOs. With mezzanine CDO’s, though, recovery rates on those AAA assets have been a mere 5 per cent.

I dare say this might be an extreme case. The subprime loans extended in 2006 and 2007 have suffered particularly high default rates and the CDOs that have already been liquidated are presumably the very worst of the pack.

Even so, I would hazard a guess that this is easily the worst outcome for any assets that have ever carried a “triple A” stamp. No wonder so many investors are now so utterly cynical about anything that bankers or rating agencies might say these days.

Krugman has the following analysis:

Why is this important? A recurring theme of those who believe that the financial system can be rescued with fancy financial engineering — a group that, sad to say, apparently now includes the Obama administration — is that the losses on toxic assets aren’t really as bad as people say; that lack of liquidity and “irrational despondence” have led to an undervaluation of these assets, and that if we can just calm things down and get cash flowing again all will be well.

Not so much, it seems.

With every passing day, it becomes clearer and clearer that the Krugman/Roubini wing, which has been more right than wrong throughout this mess, is right, and everyone else is wrong.

And not to beat a dead horse, because I know I mention this every couple of days, but I am consistently amazed that no one seems to be going after Moodys and S&P and the other ratings agencies, who are as complicit in this mess as anyone. After Enron, Arthur Andersen went under, and so far this makes Enron look like a walk in the park, yet to my knowledge nothing is happening to the ratings agencies right now.

*** Update ***

Hilzoy:

And how about those ratings agencies? They would have done a better job using a Magic 8-Ball to rate the CDOs. (“Signs point to junk!”)

Pretty much.

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Slide

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More horrifying economic news:

The U.S. economy shrank in the fourth quarter at an even faster pace than previously estimated as consumer spending plunged, companies cut inventories and exports sank.

Gross domestic product contracted at a 6.2 percent annual pace from October through December, more than economists anticipated and the most since 1982, according to revised figures from the Commerce Department today in Washington. Consumer spending, which comprises about 70 percent of the economy, declined at the fastest pace in almost three decades.

The recession is forecast to persist at least through the first half of this year as job losses mount and purchases plummet. The Obama administration’s attempts to break the grip of the worst financial crisis in 70 years are unlikely to bring immediate relief as companies from General Motors Corp. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut payrolls.

If only we had cut capital gains taxes like the Republicans wanted, this would never have happened.

You know, I keep wondering- was the opposition party this petty and stupid during the great depression? When FDR proposed his budget, did some rich prick with a fake tan get up in front of microphones an hour after it was proposed (mind you, this is the same guy who whinged he did not have enough time to read the stimulus bill after a month, but an hour was sufficient time to read the budget), and say “OH MY GOD THE ERA OF BIG GOVERNMENT IS BACK!” Was there a John Boehner of that time period? And this is a serious question- was our politics always this stupid, and were we always suffering from morons like this?

During the depression, were there organizations of idiots running around having little tea parties and chanting porkulus? Or are we as a nation intent on proving Darwin wrong?

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Taking It Both Ways

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Congratulations, America! You just bought more of a failing company:

In its most daring bid yet to stabilize Citigroup, one of the nation’s largest and most troubled financial institutions, the Treasury Department announced on Friday that it would vastly increase its ownership of the struggling company.

After two multibillion-dollar lifelines failed to shore up Citigroup, the government will increase its stake in the company to 36 percent from 8 percent.

Meanwhile, this:

Credit-card companies continue to raise customer interest rates and fees despite a record-low target rate from the Federal Reserve and billions of dollars in bailout money that has been pumped in to the financial companies.

Though the Federal Reserve in December slashed its target rate to a range of between 0% and 0.25%, and a cut at the Fed usually means a drop in credit-card rates as well, many credit-card customers are instead seeing increases as companies try to offset increased losses in their card operations.

Just nationalize them and get this over with sooner rather than later.

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To be young, gifted, and conservative

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This (via Oliver Willis who also describes a Twitter exchange with Joe Scarborough) really cracks me up:

For much of the past decade, young conservatives enjoyed an array of job opportunities in the Republican-controlled Congress and at insulated, well-funded nonprofit organizations. But since Democrats gained control in 2006, many prized slots on Senate and House committees started going to the new majority. And now, there’s no Republican administration in power to offer jobs to its own.

Young conservatives could apply for regular jobs, they acknowledge…

[…]

At the Union Pub, Dustin Siggins, 24, says he sometimes uses humor to deflect the awkwardness of being on the margins of his generation. “I met a girl today at the gym from Boston College. She was getting a law degree from George Washington. She was cute,” he says. “But she wants to work for the ACLU, and I said, ‘Oh, you’re one of those.’ “

Later, in a phone interview, Siggins says he struggles with some of his party’s more culturally orthodox ideals. “Because I am in this generation and was raised in a pro-gay-marriage era, I am only a little bit against gay marriage, but only a little, like 53 percent to 47,” he says. “I have about a dozen gay friends, 30 or 20, and they would all back me up. In college, I used to have lunch with them. . . . We went ice skating once.”

I bear these kids no ill will, but they probably should look for “regular jobs” at some point.

David Brooks thinks the future may be bright for these Burkean boys and girls, anyway:

In a New York Times column last June, David Brooks wrote that a new commentariat of young conservative writers — such as Julian Sanchez, Megan McArdle and Will Wilkinson — has come of age “as official conservatism slipped into decrepitude . . . put off by the shock-jock rhetorical style of Ann Coulter.”

Update: Burke makes a big appearance in Brooks’ column, natch:

As a consequence, they are heterodox and hard to label. These writers grew up reading conservative classics — Burke, Hayek, Smith, C.S. Lewis — but have now splayed off in all sorts of quirky ideological directions.

Something tells me young Dustin and his friends have splayed off a lot too.

Brooks does also mention some more conservative writers (than McMeghan and friends), like the 1994 Heisman trophy winner who wrote the Sam’s Club book with Ross Douthat.

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