Joint Publication 3-60: Joint Targeting defines indirect effects as:
Indirect effects are the delayed and/or displaced second-, third-, and higherorder consequences of action, created through intermediate events or mechanisms. These outcomes may be physical or behavioral in nature. Indirect effects may be difficult to recognize due to subtle changes in system behavior that may make them difficult to observe. For example, an indirect effect of destroying a communications node or capturing a terrorist cell courier may degrade the effectiveness of the fielded enemy force’s C2 structure. Effects such as this have real benefits but may be more difficult to assess and measure individually or in the short-term. Although a factor for consideration, difficulty of assessment should not be the primary factor for choosing to create direct or indirect effects.
Regarding Shahed drone production used against Ukraine, today’s strikes in Iran are unlikely to have a direct impact. Russia has not only localized production for some time now, but has also modernized and improved the systems to make them more resilient to countermeasures
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) June 13, 2025 at 4:48 AM
From The Kyiv Independent:
Kyiv on June 13 expressed concern over the security situation in the Middle East after Israeli air strikes against Iran, but stressed that Tehran remains a “source of problems” in the region “and beyond.”
The statement follows what Israel called a “preemptive” strike against Iran overnight on June 13, targeting the country’s nuclear program and reportedly killing top military officials.
“We would like to remind you that the Iranian regime supports Russia in its illegal war of aggression against Ukraine and provides Moscow with weapons to kill Ukrainians,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Kyiv nevertheless also warned that further hostilities could destabilize the region with “negative consequences for international security and global financial stability, especially in oil markets.”
Israeli strikes were quickly followed by a surge in oil prices, Russia’s key export commodity, with Brent and Nymex crude prices jumping by more than 10%.
“We are convinced that restoring peace and stability in the Middle East will serve the interests not only of the region but also of the entire international community,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said.
Back to JP 3-60:
(b) Cascading Effects. Effects can ripple through a target system, often influencing other systems. This most typically occurs through nodes and links that are common and critical to related systems. The cascading of direct and indirect effects, as the name implies, usually flows from higher to lower levels. As an example, destruction of a headquarters element or capture of a terrorist senior leader will result in the loss of C2 and thus degrade the effectiveness of subordinate organizations. A nonlethal example could be if counter threat finance (CTF) actions are taken against a threat network and a significant portion of the threat group’s funds are seized and financiers are arrested by law enforcement, the cascading effect could be a loss in the ability to pay enemy.
(c) Unintended Effects. Effects often spill over to create unintended consequences, which may be counterproductive or may create opportunities. An example of a counterproductive consequence entails injury or collateral damage to persons or objects unrelated to the intended target. Conversely, some unforeseen effects may create opportunities the joint force can exploit to help accomplish objectives. Unintended effects may also occur if the pre-strike analysis was incorrect and the enemy’s reaction differs from what was expected, complicates operations, or causes a change to operations (e.g., the enemy as expected to withdraw, but they counterattacked with their strategic reserve instead). The pre-strike analysis may also have miscalculated the local civilian population perceptions/reactions and international public opinion, ultimately resulting in more restrictions on target selection or engagement timing. Planners and targeteers should consider second-, third-, and higher-order effects, especially political-military effects, during planning and assessment. While estimating outcomes is rarely an exact process, estimation becomes increasingly difficult as effects continue to compound and cascade through targets and target systems. In addition, the impact of a single event can often be magnified over time and distance that greatly exceeds the span of the direct effect associated with that one event.
Another potential cascading and unintended effect is that Israel’s attempt to decapitate Iranian military and civilian leadership has created an opening for the Paydari Front to accumulate even more power.
The Paydari Front, or Front of the Stability of the Islamic Revolution, are Shia supremacists who oppose any kind of compromise with anyone inside or outside Iran. They deride their critics as atheists and counter-revolutionaries and want to turn Tehran’s parks into mosques. They consider any kind of reconciliation with the West such anathema that some of their ilk burnt the text of the JCPOA, the deal Iran signed with six world powers in 2015 limiting its nuclear programme, in parliament. They liken “strategic patience” in the face of Israeli attacks to appeasement.
Their opponents speak of state capture. Ebrahim Raisi, the hardline cleric who was elected president in 2021, has given them prominent positions in his government. His father-in-law is perhaps Iran’s most radical cleric; his sermons fire the Paydaris’ zeal. They tightened their grip on power in last month’s parliamentary elections after many people boycotted the vote. Paydari Front candidates trounced Mohammaed Bagher Qalibaf, a pragmatic former mayor of Tehran, IRGC commander and relative of Mr Khamenei’s. They are now seeking to oust him as speaker of parliament. They have passed new chastity laws. Against the advice of IRGC old-timers, they are seeking to reimpose the mandatory hijab after its de-facto suspension following widespread protests in 2022. On the same day that Iran struck Israel, they sent the morality police back on the streets after a year-long hiatus.
The Paydari Front’s clerics have also infiltrated the ranks of the IRGC. The most recent generation of commanders spent their careers attending summer camps run by Paydari clerics, many of whom are also posted to their units. “The new generation is more ideological and abrasive, less experienced and less pragmatic,” says Saeid Golkar, an expert on the IRGCat the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. Unlike earlier generations, they have no memory of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. They use religious texts to devise strategy. “Those who don’t know war are more eager to fight,” he says, quoting an Iranian saying.
Now we watch and wait.
President Zelenskyy does not seem to have addressed the Ukrainian people today most likely because he’s on his way to the Canada for the G7. He did present awards to members of Ukraine’s military.
War for Ukraine Day 1,205: Indirect EffectsPost + Comments (10)
