The use of veto power requires reform, and this can be a key reform in the UN – address by the President of Ukraine at the UN Security Council meeting

20 September 2023 – 19:24

Distinguished Prime Minister Rama! 

I am grateful to the Albanian Presidency for arranging this meeting.

Mr. Secretary-General!

Ladies and gentlemen!

Five hundred seventy-four days of pain, losses, and struggle have already passed since the start of the full-scale aggression launched by the state, which, for some reason, is still present here among the permanent members of the UN Security Council. Russia has killed at least tens of thousands of our people and turned millions into refugees by destroying their homes.

Most of the world recognizes the truth about this war. It is a criminal and unprovoked aggression by Russia against our nation, aimed at seizing Ukraine’s territory and resources. But it is not just that. With its aggression, the terrorist state is willing to undermine all the dams of international norms meant to protect the world from wars.

And I am grateful to all those who have recognized the Russian aggression as a violation of the UN Charter.

Ukraine exercises its inherent right of self-defense. Helping Ukraine with weapons in this exercise, imposing sanctions and exerting comprehensive pressure on the aggressor, as well as voting for relevant resolutions, mean helping to defend the UN Charter.

The resolutions of the General Assembly have clearly recognized the fact that the only source of this war is Russia. But, this has changed nothing for Russia in the United Nations. However, these are the situations that have changed everything for the UN. We should acknowledge that the Organization finds itself in a deadlock on the issue of aggression. Humankind no longer pins its hopes on the UN when it comes to the defense of the sovereign borders of nations. World leaders are seeking new platforms and alliances that could reduce the disastrous scope of problems. Those problems that are met here, within these walls, with rhetoric, rather than real solutions, with aspirations to compromise with killers, rather than to protect lives. Life should be defended uncompromisingly to ensure successful protection.

But I would not be here today if Ukraine had no proposals precisely regarding solutions.

Yesterday, in my address to the UN General Assembly, I said that the Ukrainian Peace Formula had become the basis to update the existing security architecture in the world, in particular – to restore the real power of the UN Charter and the rules-based international order.

Now I would like to present the details – concrete possible actions based on the Peace Formula, notably its point 5 “Implementation of the UN Charter and restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the world order”.

All in the world see what makes the UN incapable unfortunately. This seat in the Security Council, which Russia occupied illegally, through backstage manipulations following the collapse of the Soviet Union, has been taken by liars whose job is to whitewash the aggression and genocide being carried out by Russia. And all the UN actions – either by the Security Council or the General Assembly – that could have stopped this aggression, are shattered by the privilege granted by this seat to the aggressor. Veto power in the hands of the aggressor is what has pushed the UN into a dead end.

Today, no matter what nation you might be… A nation with hundreds of millions of people or a small nation… A nation that bravely defends its independence or a country whose long history of independence can help others… A state in need of help or a nation that can provide genuine support… A state that relies on its army, or a state for which the UN Charter, not its army, is the first and last line of defense… Regardless of who you are, the current UN system still makes you less influential than the veto power possessed by a few and misused by one – Russia – to the detriment of all other UN members.

These days, the word “inequality” has often been heard in the UN General Assembly. Inequality is mentioned by different nations – both larger and smaller ones. It is precisely inequality that renders the UN ineffective now.

I regret that so far the UN Security Council is just the most visible platform in the world. I believe that the UN is capable of more. I am confident that the UN Charter can actually work for global peace and security. However, for this to happen, the years-long discussions of projects for UN reform must be translated into a viable process of UN reform.

And it should not be only about representation here, in the Security Council. The use of veto power – that is what requires reform, and this can be a key reform. This can be what restores the power of the UN Charter.

Ladies and gentlemen!

Five hundred seventy-four days of the full-fledged Russian aggression are five hundred seventy-four reasons for changes in this Chamber. And the number of votes in favor of these changes actually amounts to billions. The absolute majority of people in the world aspire to live in a world free of aggression. In contrast to all of us, there are only a few obsessed individuals in Moscow. Veto should not serve as a weapon for those who are obsessed with hatred and war.

What we observe in the United Nations is an increasing support for the idea that in cases of mass atrocities veto power should be voluntarily suspended. But we also observe that Russia will not give up this stolen privilege voluntarily.

So, the UN General Assembly should be given a real power to overcome the veto.

This will be the first necessary step.

If it is impossible to stop the war because all efforts are vetoed by the aggressor or those who condone the aggressor, it is necessary to bring this issue to the attention of the General Assembly. In the event of two-thirds of the votes reflecting the will of nations from Asia, Africa, Europe, both Americas, and the Pacific region – a global qualified majority – the veto should be effectively overcome, and such resolution of the General Assembly must be legally binding for all Member States.

The second step. The UN Security Council must be fully accountable to the nations of the world. I welcome the proposals of various leaders to expand the representation of nations in the Security Council. The composition of the permanent members of the Security Council should reflect the current realities and justice.

Ukraine considers it unjust when billions of people do not have their permanent representation in the Security Council. The African Union must be here permanently. Asia deserves broader permanent representation – it cannot be considered normal when nations like Japan, India or the Islamic world remain outside the permanent membership of the Security Council. One should take into account the changes that have taken place in Europe, notably that Germany has become one of the key global guarantors of peace and security. This is a matter of fact. Therefore, it is also a matter of fact that Germany deserves a place among the permanent members of the Security Council. Latin America must be represented here – permanently. And the Pacific states.

However, we should not confine our attention to those in the top seats only. There is a need to expand the participation and access to the activities of the UN Security Council and its subsidiary bodies for all members of the UN General Assembly who are not recognized as aggressors.

At the same time, the Security Council’s membership of any state should be suspended for a period of time when such a state resorts to aggression against another nation in violation of the UN Charter.

The third step. There is a need for a system to prevent aggression through early response to actions violating territorial integrity and sovereignty of states. It’s time to do this. Nations of the world should agree on such a mechanism for responding to aggression to protect others, that everyone would want for their own security.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown what can such a mechanism be. Among other things, powerful sanctions against the aggressor. Not only at the stage when Bucha has already happened, but also at the stage of the build-up of an invasion army. Anyone who wants to start a war should see before their fatal mistake what exactly they will lose when they start a war. The issue of applying such preventive sanctions should be automatically submitted for consideration of the UN Security Council when any Member of the UN General Assembly reports a threat of aggression.

Ukrainian soldiers are currently doing at the expense of their blood what the UN Security Council should do by its voting – they are stopping aggression and upholding the principles of the UN Charter.

And now, I would like to focus on territorial integrity. This is an element of both the UN Charter and our Peace Formula that is inextricably linked to the issue of clearing the territory from the occupiers. Occupation is an inexhaustible source of dynamite under the international rules-based order. So, I will provide examples of concrete steps to be taken for the security architecture to be strong. Using Ukraine as an example. Concrete things. Concrete as we, Ukrainians, are.

First: full withdrawal of all Russian troops and military formations, including the Russian Black Sea Fleet or its leaky remnants, as well as the withdrawal of all mercenaries and paramilitary formations of Russia from the entire sovereign territory of Ukraine within our internationally recognized borders as of 1991.

Second: full restoration of Ukraine’s effective control over the entire state border and exclusive economic zone, including in the Black and Azov Seas, as well as in the Kerch Strait.

In fact, only the implementation of these two points will result in an honest, reliable, and complete cessation of hostilities.

Ladies and gentlemen!

As a rule, reforms of such international institutions were made following major tragedies, major wars. We should not wait for this aggression to be over. Action is needed now. Our aspiration for peace should drive the reform.

When I was preparing the Ukrainian Peace Formula, I underpinned its points exclusively by the principles of the UN Charter and resolutions adopted by the General Assembly. This is precisely what enables the global nature of the Ukrainian Peace Formula. Nations that engage with the Formula realize that they are working for the rules-based international order – for the protection of territorial integrity and sovereignty of states, protection of human rights, prevention of aggression and genocidal policy. Naturally, the epicenter of such efforts should be in this very Chamber – the UN Security Council Chamber, and even to a greater extent, in the General Assembly Hall. If reform of UN institutions is necessary for this, then we should not be afraid of such reform. We are ready to work together with those UN members, who have joined the Peace Formula, on relevant draft resolutions and amendments to the UN Charter.

And I would like to make it clear for everyone in the world, what exactly Ukraine is proposing while addressing the nations of the world and calling on them to join the implementation of the Peace Formula.

Each country can demonstrate its leadership within the framework of one or more or all points of the Peace Formula. On the basis of the points of the Peace Formula we form groups, where national security advisors to heads of state and diplomatic representatives work. These groups are tasked to elaborate a list of decisions and legislative proposals, requiring implementation to fulfill the relevant point of the Peace Formula. We are ready to hold the inaugural Summit of the Leaders, subsequently, ten conferences at the level of advisors, diplomatic representatives, heads of parliaments in accordance with the ten points of the Peace Formula. Later, these drafts prepared by advisors will be submitted for consideration by heads of state at the respective final Summit.

Thereby, all nations of the world that respect peace can actually participate in the restoration of peace.

Cooperation is always the key word for Ukraine in international relations. This word is also key for peace. So, let peace prevail! May our institutions and our cooperation be stronger.

I thank you for the opportunity to deliver this address. Thank you for the invitation and your attention!

Слава Україні!

The cost:

Petro Burban, a father of three children and a war veteran. He went to the front lines as a volunteer in the early days of the full-scale russian invasion. Petro served for a year and a half. Then, he returned home and got a job. His first day at the Caritas-Spes humanitarian aid… pic.twitter.com/WiEZM0FObx

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 20, 2023

Petro Burban, a father of three children and a war veteran. He went to the front lines as a volunteer in the early days of the full-scale russian invasion. Petro served for a year and a half. Then, he returned home and got a job. His first day at the Caritas-Spes humanitarian aid warehouse was yesterday. Petro was killed as a result of a russian terrorist attack on this warehouse.

After receiving treatment and rehabilitation in Germany, 8-year-old Roman Oleksiv has returned home. On July 14, 2022, a russian missile struck a Vinnytsia clinic where he and his mother were waiting for a doctor's appointment. Roman's mother (along with 22 other people) died… pic.twitter.com/6WoRyjYMRH

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 20, 2023

After receiving treatment and rehabilitation in Germany, 8-year-old Roman Oleksiv has returned home. On July 14, 2022, a russian missile struck a Vinnytsia clinic where he and his mother were waiting for a doctor’s appointment. Roman’s mother (along with 22 other people) died before his eyes.
The boy suffered severe injuries. 45% of his body was burned, internal burns in some places reached his bones. After Ukrainian doctors stabilized his condition, Roman was taken to a clinic in Dresden. Doctors were amazed at the boy’s strength of character. Because of the burns on his leg, a muscle was removed.
Roman began training and is now walking on his own. He went to a German school and continued his online studies in Ukrainian.
His mask must be worn for two years to avoid scarring. Plastic surgeons vow that the boy’s face will be entirely restored later.

A major Ukrainian anti-corruption initiative is back on track:

A key instrument to prevent corruption that was suspended for security reasons at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will soon be restored after public pressure. https://t.co/H57bKFGNp4

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 20, 2023

Tokmak & Robotyne:

Here is a thread by Zaporizhzhia Salt, a Ukrainian Army commo specialist. It focuses on what is going on in and around Tokmak and Robotyne. First tweet from the thread, followed by a machine translation, followed by a machine translation of the rest of the thread from the Thread Reader App.

Реальне життя і теоретики наступу. росіяни таки вирішили спробувати
затиснути фланги ЗСУ на Токмацькому напрямку, якщо вже не виходить зробити як пише книжка і оточити наше угруповання. Також вони намагаються повернутися в Роботине. Тред🧵про теорію і реальне життя як воно є 1/ pic.twitter.com/bsC12jucml

— Запорізька Сіль 🇺🇦 (@solonko1648) September 20, 2023

Real life and offensive theorists. the Russians did decide to try
to pinch the flanks of the Armed Forces in the Tokmak direction, if it is not possible to do as the book says and surround our group. They are also trying to return to Robotyn. Thread 🧵 about theory and real life as it is 1/

We have heard many criticisms that the Armed Forces are not coming there and are not. With too little force, you have to use bigger connections and more concentrated and many more things that people say that would not even dare to start what we do 2/ 

Let’s assume that the Armed Forces started an offensive here by entire brigades, a large-scale run-up by large ground forces with limited air support at the tenfold advantage of the occupiers in the same air. Without the required number of air defense tactical systems to cover the attackers 3/ 

Through minefields, in the forehead, taking into account all that I have repeatedly talked about. The result can be imagined. I do not understand why theorists do not have enough imagination to paint this picture in their head. It was a pink dream of the Russian occupiers. Perfect start and finish 4/ 

They just raise aviation and ruin all this good in a short period of time and it will end very quickly. Crazy human casualties, destroyed limited Western equipment ( promised two divisions, but also did not reach ) and further prospects for deoccupation of the South 5/ 

Great prospects. Only for the occupiers. And now compare what Russian aviation does to all its advantage. hunts for small groups, separate units of equipment, single MANPADS, shoots on roads most often late, etc 6/ 

Unfortunately for the drug addict Balitsky, who talks about the “destroyed columns” of the Armed Forces near the village of Robine, the columns as such do not exist in this area. There was one bitter lesson at the beginning of the campaign that was lingering and recorded with blood on the iron. They were rebuilt and began to act in their own way 7/ 

We have been using so-called small group tactics for a long time and widely. And the occupiers also take over it. I described how the terrorists from Wagner used its elements in Bakhmut almost a year ago. I’m adding a video that was shot, carefully stored and mounted 8/

It is probably important to note here that the direction of comparing Wagner’s tactics and the tactics of the Armed Forces during the offensive actions. Only the use of small formations is common here. All other conditions are very different. Environment, strategic tasks and the same resources and attitudes towards losses 9/ 

During the offensive campaign in the South, the Armed Forces carry out their actions in small formations. This applies to both people and technology. Accordingly, Russian aircraft chases after us, drops tons of bombs every day, and traffic still happens. KABs are large, and whole small and difficult to hit 10/ 

From the very beginning of the campaign, we found ourselves in a situation where we do not even have parity in the air. So there was a choice. Do not step at all, or act as we may act under these circumstances. The option that theorists talk about simply does not exist for us for the reasons described above 11/ 

If we had parity in the air, we might see another type of offensive. Maybe he would be faster, maybe it would be easier for us. But we have a certain material base, the aggressor has more resources, he trenched while we waited for political decisions and the supply of weapons and ammunition 12/ 

And the indicator of the success of our actions is not only direct in the form of promotion and loss of Muscovites. And indirect in the form of how desperately the Russians are trying to impose a narrative about our insane losses. To demoralize us and repel the desire of the allies to help 13/ 

This is part of their military doctrine. Indirect means of pressure on the victim of aggression. Such a bluff. There are losses, it’s a war. And even one dead brother is too much. But if it were as the occupiers say, we would no longer have combat units left 14/ 

And they would not increase the number of personnel near our bridgehead by 2-3 times, trying to save their position and repel at least something. What are they doing lately, acting reserves and sending parts from other directions, storming previously lost positions 15/ 

Returning to the issue of aviation. It is a pity that we have to explain obvious things to many people in the world. We will not conduct such operations quickly without aircraft. No one will hold. That we have less resources than the parties that are in defense, and so on 16/ 

This should be understood by theorists who believe that we should step on “great power”. At the same time, the theory says that there should be proper air support. But there is no proper. There is a limited and also in the semi-guerrilla style, which is logical 17/ 

But I hope that common sense will win and we will have an adequate perception of the situation and an understanding of the need to support our fight against the threat that openly declares its appetites that go far beyond Ukraine 18/ 

Thank you for attention. I invite you to subscribe to Facebook and Twitter: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2623349001155503&id=100004412856651… https://t.me/silukr/142

You can support by subscribing to buymeacoffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/solonko1648

Thank you again

Russian occupied Crimea this evening:

/1. There are reports of explosions in Crimea. Saky, Yevpatoriya and Sevastopol. Preliminary, reports of drone sounds and Russian air defense activity.
Video from Saky, (Novofedorivka air field area) pic.twitter.com/ntIvSooE3Q

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 20, 2023

/3. Saky, Novofedorivka area, explosions, drones, air defence activity. pic.twitter.com/RLAhbVkK3Q

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 20, 2023

Russian occupied Crimea this morning:

/2. Several minutes before reports about explosions, there were messages about Russianscreating a smoke screen in Sevastopol bay, near Inkerman pic.twitter.com/X0s38br5S8

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 20, 2023

/4. Quite interesting. The source claims that this video was filmed near Simfiropol. If so, this might indicate that the attack was made not from the sea direction, but from the land.https://t.co/cj7JMN1t7g pic.twitter.com/GrkP0AvS7X

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 20, 2023

/6. Reportedly, fire on targeted area in Verkhnesadove, near Sevastopol is still ongoing.
Plus FIRMS map shows fire signs on the territory of the Russian military base. pic.twitter.com/lMtb5YXqrd

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 20, 2023

The Black Sea off the Romanian and Ukrainian coast:

DANGEROUS SAILING: An explosion wracked the Togo-flagged cargo ship SEAMA while transiting near the UKR coast in the Black Sea. At 0650 (Local) the ship sent a Mayday reporting the explosion. SEAMA is thought to have encountered a sea mine off the coast of Sulina, Romania,… pic.twitter.com/e2qfo43IXT

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 20, 2023

DANGEROUS SAILING: An explosion wracked the Togo-flagged cargo ship SEAMA while transiting near the UKR coast in the Black Sea. At 0650 (Local) the ship sent a Mayday reporting the explosion. SEAMA is thought to have encountered a sea mine off the coast of Sulina, Romania, near the Ukrainian border.
https://news.yahoo.com/romanian-authorities-rescue-crew-explosion-082256998.html

The crew of 12 was evacuated between 07:20 and 07:30 a.m., Dan Ichim, the chief captain of the Tulcea Port Authority, said that all 12 crew members had been rescued and were receiving medical treatment.

We have another Kadyrov proof of life video.

Kadyrov addresses his plane’s trips to Moscow and rumors about his own health for the first time.

He says he’s visiting his sick uncle in the presidential hospital but he himself is doing fine. The doctor names today’s date, a totally normal thing to do when you are not sick pic.twitter.com/BhIfIHr5w9

— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 20, 2023

The ethnic Armenian resistance in Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh has surrendered.

Complete ceasefire announced.

De-facto Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has surrendered as all armed forces from Karabakh region will be withdrawn and NKR officials will hold a meeting with Azerbaijan in Yevlakh tomorrow. Papers will be signed bringing an end to de-facto Republic.

— CaucasusWarReport (@Caucasuswar) September 20, 2023

Now we wait to see what the Azerbaijani government actually does. As in do they lift the blockage on food, medicine, and fuel or to they double down on ethnically cleansing the disputed territory.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Apparently there is once again a rumor going around that Patron has been wounded or killed. There is a new slideshow at his official TikTok channel that addresses it. They don’t embed here like the videos do, so if you want to see it, click across.

Here is a machine translation of the caption to the slideshow:

Dear friends! Please don’t believe the fakes and gossip. I’m alive and well, everything is with me good ❤️ Lick everyone 👅 (except for the hype eaters 🤭)

Open thread!

Nowadays humanity must act in full solidarity to save lives – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech during the General Debate of the UN General Assembly

19 September 2023 – 22:17

Thank you very much!

I welcome all who stand for common efforts! 

And I promise – being really united we can guarantee fair peace for all nations. What’s more, unity can prevent wars.

Ladies and gentlemen!

Mr. Secretary General!

Fellow leaders!

This hall saw many wars but not as an active defender against the aggressions.

In many cases, the fear of war, the final war, was the loudest here – the war after which no one would gather in the General Assembly Hall again.

The Third World War was seen as a nuclear war. A conflict between states on the highway to nukes. Other wars seemed less scary compared to a threat of the so-called “great powers” firing their nuclear stockpiles.

So, the 20th century taught the world to restrain from the use of the weapons of mass destruction – not to deploy, not to proliferate, not to threaten with, and not to test, but to promote a complete nuclear disarmament.

Frankly, this is a good strategy. But it should not be the only strategy to protect the world from this final war.

Ukraine gave up its third largest nuclear arsenal. The world then decided Russia should become a keeper of such power. Yet, history shows it was Russia who deserved nuclear disarmament the most, back in the 1990s. And Russia deserves it now – terrorists have no right to hold nuclear weapons. No right!

But truly not the nukes are the scariest now.

While nukes remain in place, the mass destruction is gaining its momentum. The aggressor is weaponizing many other things and those things are used not only against our country but against all of yours as well.

Fellow leaders!

There are many conventions that restrict weapons but there are no real restrictions on weaponization.

First, let me give you an example – the food.

Since the start of the full-scale war, the Ukrainian ports in the Black and Azov Seas have been blocked by Russia. Until now, our ports on the Danube River remain the target for missiles and drones. And it is a clear Russia’s attempt to weaponize the food shortage on the global market in exchange for recognition for some, if not all, of the captured territories.

Russia is launching the food prices as weapons. The impact spans from the Atlantic coast of Africa to Southeast Asia. This is the threat scale.

I would like to thank those leaders who supported our Black Sea Grain Initiative, and program “Grain from Ukraine”. Thank you so much! United, we made weapons turn back into food again. More than 45 nations saw how important it is to make Ukrainian food products available on the market… from Algeria and Spain to Indonesia and China.

Even now when Russia has undermined the Black Sea Grain Initiative, we are working to ensure food stability. And I hope that many of you will join us in these efforts. We launched a temporary sea export corridor from our ports. And we are working hard to preserve the land routes for grain exports. And it is alarming to see how some in Europe, some of our friends in Europe, play out solidarity in a political theater – making a thriller from the grain. They may seem to play their own role but in fact they are helping set the stage to a Moscow actor.

Second, weaponization of energy.

Many times, the world has witnessed Russia using energy as a weapon. The Kremlin weaponized oil and gas to weaken the leaders of other countries when they came to the Red Square.

Now the threat is even greater. Russia is weaponizing nuclear energy. Not only is it spreading its unreliable nuclear-power-plant-construction-technologies, but it is also turning other countries’ power plants into real dirty bombs.

Look please what Russia did to our Zaporizhzhia power plant – shelled it, occupied it and now blackmails others with radiation leaks.

Is there any sense to reduce nuclear weapons when Russia is weaponizing nuclear power plants? Scary question.

The global security architecture offers no response or protection against such a treacherous radiation threat. And there is no accountability for radiation blackmailers so far.

The third example is children.

Unfortunately, various terrorist groups abduct children to put pressure on their families and societies. But never before would mass kidnapping and deportation become a part of the government policy. Not until now.

We know the names of tens of thousands of children and have evidence on hundreds of thousands of others kidnapped by Russia in the occupied territories of Ukraine and later deported. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin for this crime.

We are trying to get children back home but time goes by. What will happen to them?

Those children in Russia are taught to hate Ukraine, and all ties with their families are broken… This is clearly a genocide.

When hatred is weaponized against one nation, it never stops there. Each decade Russia starts a new war. Parts of Moldova and Georgia remain occupied. Russia turned Syria into ruins. And if it hadn’t been for Russia, the chemical weapons would have never been used there in Syria. Russia has almost swallowed Belarus. It is obviously threatening Kazakhstan and the Baltic states… And the goal of the present war against Ukraine is to turn our land, our people, our lives, our resources into a weapon against you – against the international rules-based order. Many seats in the General Assembly Hall may become empty if Russia succeeds with its treachery and aggression.

Ladies and gentlemen!

The aggressor scatters death and brings ruins even without nukes but the outcomes are alike.

We see towns and villages in Ukraine wiped out by Russian artillery. Leveled to the ground completely! We see the war of drones. We know the possible effects of spreading the war into cyberspace.

The artificial intelligence could be trained to combat well – before it would learn to help the humanity. Thank God, people have not yet learned to use climate as a weapon. Even though humanity is failing on its climate policy objectives – this means that extreme weather will still impact normal global life and some evil state will also weaponize its outcomes. And when people in the streets of New York and other cities of the world went out on climate protest – we all have seen them… And when people in Morocco and Libya and other countries die as a result of natural disasters… And when islands and countries disappear under water… And when tornadoes and deserts are spreading into new territories… And when all of this is happening one unnatural disaster in Moscow decided to launch a big war and kill tens of thousands of people. We have to stop it!

We must act united – to defeat the aggressor and focus all our capabilities and energy on addressing these challenges.

As nukes are restrained, likewise the aggressor must be restrained and all its tools and methods of war. Each war now can become final, but it takes our unity to make sure that aggression will not break in again.

And it is not a dialog between the so-called “great powers” somewhere behind the closed doors that can guarantee us all the new no-wars-era, but open work of all nations for peace.

Last year, I presented the outlines of the Ukrainian Peace Formula at the UN General Assembly. Later in Indonesia, I presented the full Formula. And over the past year the Peace Formula became the basis to update the existing security architecture – now we can bring back to life the UN Charter and guarantee the full power of the rules-based world order.

Tomorrow I will present the details at a special meeting of the UN Security Council.

The main thing is that it is not only about Ukraine. More than 140 states and international organizations have supported the Ukrainian Peace Formula fully or in part. The Ukrainian Peace Formula is becoming global. Its points offer solutions and steps that will stop all forms of weaponization that Russia used against Ukraine and other countries and may be used by other aggressors.

Look – for the first time in modern history, we have a real chance to end the aggression on the terms of the nation which was attacked. This is a real chance for every nation – to ensure that aggression against your state, if it happens, God forbid, will end not because your land will be divided and you will be forced to submit to military or political pressure, but because your territory and sovereignty will be fully restored.

We launched the format of meetings between national security advisors and diplomatic representatives. Important talks and consultations were held in Hiroshima, in Copenhagen, and in Jeddah on the implementation of the Peace Formula. And we are preparing a Global Peace Summit. I invite all of you – all of you who do not tolerate any aggression – to jointly prepare the Summit.

I am aware of the attempts to make some shady dealings behind the scenes. Evil cannot be trusted – ask Prigozhin if one bets on Putin’s promises. Please, hear me. Let unity decide everything openly.

While Russia is pushing the world to the final war, Ukraine is doing everything to ensure that after Russian aggression no one in the world will dare to attack any nation. Weaponization must be restrained. War crimes must be punished. Deported people must come back home. And the occupier must return to their own land.

We must be united to make it. And we will do it.

Слава Україні!

. @ZelenskyyUa
Evil can not be trusted. Ask Prigozhin if one bets on Putin’s promises.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 19, 2023

Zelensky visits wounded Ukrainian soldiers at Staten Island University Hospital in New York. Nine Ukrainian servicemen who lost their limbs are receiving treatment and rehabilitation there pic.twitter.com/tvRCH6NP8O

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 19, 2023

Here is President Biden’s address. It should be queued up to start at the 2:30 mark, which is when he approaches the podium. There does not appear to be a transcript posted at WhiteHouse.gov.

.@POTUS: "I ask you this: If we abandon the core principles of the UN Charter to appease an aggressor, can any member state feel confident that they are protected? If we allow Ukraine to be carved up, is the independence of any nation secure? The answer is no"

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 19, 2023

In addition to Presidents Zelenskyy’s and Biden’s remarks to the UN General Assembly today, Speaker McCarthy had some thoughts. ABC News has the details: (emphasis mine)

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said he has questions for the Ukrainian president when asked if he plans to commit to another round of aid.

“Is Zelenskyy elected to Congress? Is he our president? I don’t think I have to commit anything and I think I have questions for him,” McCarthy told ABC News Senior Congressional Correspondent Rachel Scott.

“Where’s the accountability on the money we’ve already spent? What is the plan for victory? I think that’s what the American public wants to know,” McCarthy added.

Ukraine funding is a key point of intraparty strife as Congress barrels toward a Sept. 30 deadline to pass a spending measure or enter a government shutdown.

The White House has asked for an additional $24 billion to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invaders — a request backed by congressional Democrats.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has publicly advocated for continued defense and financial assistance. But McCarthy is more skeptical, and a growing number of House Republican hard-liners are adamantly opposed to sending more money to the war-torn nation.

McCarthy has repeatedly said the United States should not be giving Ukraine a “blank check” though has vehemently criticized Russia’s actions.

“Look what Russia has done — invade — is wrong,” McCarthy said Tuesday. “It’s an atrocity, we want to make sure that ends. I also have always said from the beginning, no matter what the issue is, I want accountability for whatever the hardworking taxpayers spend their money on. I want to plan for victory. So no, I will listen to the American public. I will follow what happens in Congress, but I will have questions for President Zelenskyy.”

Since McCarthy is speaker in name only and only so long as he manages to continue appeasing every possible faction in the GOP House caucus, this has nothing to do with whether President Zelenskyy answers his questions. It has everything to do with what the House Freedom Caucus, specifically Gaetz and Green, as well as what Trump wants. And what those three all want is whatever Putin wants. Expect a government shutdown at the end of the month. Expect no $24 million supplemental for Ukraine.

The Ramstein 15 also held a meeting today regarding ongoing military aid and assistance to Ukraine.

Productive meetings on the sidelines of #Ramstein 15 with 🇺🇲 @SecDef 🇬🇧 @grantshapps 🇷🇴 @AngelTilvar 🇱🇹 @a_anusauskas 🇸🇪 @PlJonson 🇸🇰 @SklenarMartin 🇸🇯@Bjornarildgram 🇩🇰 @troelslundp https://t.co/GAWfERpUQf

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 19, 2023

We also presented during today’s #Ramstein meeting the initiative to establish Capabilities Coalition.

Main purpose — prepare Ukraine’s Future Defense Forces.@DefenceU identified 5 priority attention clusters: air defense, artillery, aviation, the Navy and armored vehicles. pic.twitter.com/LkGRCUsMoo

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) September 19, 2023

Bakhmut:

I have not had a chance to watch this all the way through yet, so I don’t know how graphic it is. Here is the description of the video posted by the 3rd Brigade at their YouTube page. The full YouTube video is below Illia Ponomarenko’s tweet. So just in case:

WARNING!! WARNING!! MAY CONTAIN GRAPHIC & INTENSE IMAGES!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

Video footage shot on a GoPro by a medic of the 1st Mechanized Battalion of the Third Assault Brigade, a friend of the Rebbe, whose photo with a Hasidic pilgrim in Uman recently stirred up the Internet.

According to the Rebbe, in civilian life he was a programmer, project manager in an IT company, and engaged in various types of business. Now he is saving lives of the Third Assault Brigade soldiers. “I am engaged in medical reconnaissance, evacuation, and work at the staging area,” he explains.

The video, filmed in the winter and spring of 2023 in Bakhmut, Rebbe jokingly calls a travel blog. It consists of a series of fragments sketches from his life in the city amid constant enemy shelling and fighting.

In addition to providing medical aid and rescuing his wounded comrades, the video footage shows the Rebbe’s daily life. In particular, a visit to an empty store, rescuing a cat abandoned in an apartment, meeting with locals hiding in the basement with a parrot, cats and chickens.

“So many things have lost their value for them and for us. There is a computer, there are speakers, who needs it now?” he states.

Despite the very sad reality, the combat medic takes everything with humor and calmness. And even manages to notice the beauty of the first signs of spring in the yards of the city bombed by the occupiers. Behind the scenes, we hear the Rebbe’s ironic and philosophical comments about everything that is happening to him. In the background, there are constant explosions from overflights that sound farther away and then very close.

 

 

The Battle of Bakhmut as seen by a combat medic with Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigadehttps://t.co/RrPEb8Y6TE

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 19, 2023

Klischiivka and Andriivka:

2/ As evident in the image created by @DefMon3, the current frontline aligns closely with the railroad, flanked by tree lines on both sides, followed by open fields. pic.twitter.com/BOiBHToRHL

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 19, 2023

4/ In this satellite image, you can see that lakes and forests can provide cover for russian forces, while open fields present challenges. Hence, crossing the railroad and establishing a "bridgehead" can become an important but challenging task pic.twitter.com/ulTBUHVu1V

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 19, 2023

6/ If you found this thread valuable, please support it by liking and retweeting the first message of the thread. Your engagement enables me to provide better materials.

This imagery and analysis are made possible thanks to my supporters and Buy Me A Coffee donations

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 19, 2023

As soon as you will stop advancing, it means that you pass initiative to your enemy, losing advantage gained from recently degraded defending forces. You will need to build defenses in quite mediocre places or retreat back to more favorable ones.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 19, 2023

The Dnipro River, Kherson Oblast:

Strikes on Russian boats somewhere in Kherson region with the help of FPV drones.
https://t.co/s7EP1jcbCp pic.twitter.com/SSftTDepmv

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 19, 2023

Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

/2. Another footage of strikes in Melitopolhttps://t.co/WsWY645tcL pic.twitter.com/kldbAH24n1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 19, 2023

And we’ve got another Russian war crime in Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Swedish TV4 team targeted by a Russian drone in Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia. Reporter Johan Fredriksson & photographer Daniel Zdolsek got out of the car to film when it was hit by drone. Another deliberate attack on journalists, despite them wearing vests and helmets clearly marked… pic.twitter.com/GlKN6RtVVf

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 19, 2023

And one more in Kherson:

My constant fear: Russian missiles striking public transport. Today, Russian troops shelled Kherson, hitting a trolley bus and injuring two people. Senior police sergeant who was nearby killed. pic.twitter.com/9pkMFM1jK8

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 19, 2023

Yerevan, Armenia:

"Путин убивает армян руками азербайджанцев… Будьте вы прокляты, подонки": біля посольства РФ в Єревані кричать "Лавров — с*ка" та "Путін — ху*ло"

"Бредовые идеи восстановления Советского Союза в воспаленном мозгу фашиста, карлика, преступника Путина заставили его пойти на… pic.twitter.com/18WfOayzeV

— Цензор.НЕТ ✍️ (@censor_net) September 19, 2023

“Putin is killing Armenians by the hands of Azerbaijanis…. Damn you, scum”: outside the Russian embassy in Yerevan shouting “Lavrov is a c*ck” and “Putin is a cocksucker”.

“Delusions of restoring the Soviet Union in the inflamed brain of the fascist, dwarf, criminal Putin forced him to commit war crimes in Ukraine. Today Putin is committing war crimes in Karabakh.

Vladimir Putin is a despicable coward. Putin is killing Armenians by the hands of Azerbaijanis. Putin has been putting his puppets in power in Armenia for 30 years to carry out his brazen imperial policy. Damn you, scumbags,” said one of those present.

“Armenia should throw Russia out of its territory. The Russian military base should get the hell out. Armenia should withdraw from the CSTO, CIS and EurAsEC. These are all organizations that Putin created to enslave and colonize the peoples of the post-Soviet space,” having added a rally to the Guchnomovites.

The disputed territory known as Artsakh to the Armenians and Nagorno-Karabakh to the Azerbaijainis:

/2. Gunshots, drones, explosions reported in Karabakh area. pic.twitter.com/huh1kYC5sQ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 19, 2023

Full text of the first tweet above:

Azerbaijan started “anti-terrorist measures” in Karabakh with the aim of restoring the constitutional order in the country — Ministry of Defense of the country. “The command of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation and the leadership of the Turkish-Russian Monitoring Center are informed about the ongoing activities,” the ministry said.

Last night in comments Chetan Murthy asked:

Adam, I’ve asked this question before: For many centuries, Ukraine was ….. under the same yoke as the rest of Russia.  And even as recently as 30+ years ago, the levels of corruption in Ukraine were eye-watering.  I’m reminded of the recent news of not-isolated reports of brutality by (some) AFU officers towards their subordinates in Ukraine, too.

And YET, AND YET, Ukraine is reacting to this news in a completely different way that Russia did and is doing.[1]  Ukraine is reacting by trying to punish the perpetrators and thereby expunge the crimes, prevent them from recurring.  This is a big deal.

[1] I’ve read that all attempts to stamp out dedovshchina in Russia have failed.

I wonder why and how this change happened in Ukraine, and whether people have studied it and how to replicate it.

B/c I’m pretty convinced that without some sort of thoroughing change in Russia, it’ll never be different than it’s been: a hellhole for its subject peoples and a danger to everybody else.  If somehow we could figure out how to replicate what Ukraine is doing, but everywhere in Russia, that’d be positive good.  What I fear, is that the real motivating factor is the sacrifices that so many Ukrainians are making in the cause of their freedom.  That’s going to be difficult (and more importantly, morally unacceptable) to replicate.

Let’s leave aside the unfortunate choice of yoke, which Chetan went on to apologize for and deal with the question. First, for the non-Russian speakers, dedovschina is hazing and in this context hazing within the military by superiors of their subordinates. I wanted to use the video in the tweet that Dmitri is quote tweeting to partially answer this, but it will not embed. When you click on the three dots and click on embed the page that comes up says the tweet has been deleted. It is of Russian soldiers beating other Russian soldiers in a trench. If you want to see the video, click through on this link.

I bet a lot of them think this is the right thing to do. Feels like this country hasn't evolved since 1917 or so. They all like these roleplay games with officers and subordinates, weird imperial inclinations, and cosplaying early 20th-century personalities. This behaviour is… https://t.co/FUMgZdfm2N

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 19, 2023

Full text of Dmitri’s tweet:

I bet a lot of them think this is the right thing to do. Feels like this country hasn’t evolved since 1917 or so. They all like these roleplay games with officers and subordinates, weird imperial inclinations, and cosplaying early 20th-century personalities. This behaviour is also quite similar to prison relationships.

And Girkin is one of the finest examples of it.

To get to Chetan’s question, there are real, substantive differences in the histories of Ukraine and Russia. Or of the states, statelets, duchies, provinces, and the societies within all of them that become modern Ukraine and modern Russia. The popular or commonly understood history of Ukraine and Russia is largely based on the Russian version of that history, which is a Russian invention that revises the actual histories of both states and societies. Much of Russia’s official history actually just takes the history of the founding of Kyiv, which paves the way for what will eventually become Ukraine and displaces it to what is now Russia, specifically to the founding of Moscow. Without going into excruciating detail, what is now Ukraine did not, just as most states and societies did not, evolve in a straight line from the founding of Kyiv to 2023 Ukraine. Parts of western Ukraine were at one point part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, while others parts were under Polish rule. Eastern Ukraine was, at times, also under different states’ or societies’ control; from the Mongol Golden Horde to its eventual Turkic successor to Russia itself. And at other times these areas of what is now Ukraine were under the control of what we would think of as Ukrainians. So Ukraine has its own unique history. A history that includes more European elements in some parts and more Asian elements in other parts.

I think another major issue is through social learning. Russia’s history of WW II is factually incorrect. It casts the Soviet Union, specifically Soviet Russia as the NAZI’s real targets and victims, the Allies as largely useless, the Soviet Union as the real victor, and the Jews, at best, not much help, and at worst collaborators with the NAZIs against the Soviets. For Russians, World War II is the Great Patriotic War. And the way it has been written and taught in official, scholarly, and popular histories, as well as popular Russian cultural depictions have not changed much despite the Soviet Union’s demise in the early 90s. Moreover, under Putin it has been purposefully developed into an almost cult like concept. It culminates in the Victory Day and Immortal Regiment parades that commemorate the end of WW II and is referred to as pobedobesie, which means victory mania or victory frenzy. Pobedobesie has been worked into patriotic-martial education in Russia beginning in kindergarten. I’ve seen dozens and dozens of photos of even toddlers dressed up like Russian WW II soldiers and pushed along in strollers made to look like tanks in these parades. Similarly, I’ve seen dozens of photos of school children marching during the school day holding pictures of Russian WW II veterans as if they were marching in the Immortal Regiment parade. Here’s an interesting research write up on the phenomenon of Russian patriotic-martial education. Here’s one that deals with how this curriculum is used to create a new generation of Russian’s loyal to Putin. Here’s a chapter published by the University of Helsinki on the phenomenon. And here’s a sociological study of it. Needless to say this has all been turbocharged over the past 18 months and that’s on top of the fact that Putin and his government had been expanding it every year since he first came to power in the mid-aughts.

I think the military hazing you’re asking about is one part socially learned military behavior via military indoctrination to undertake it, one part socially learned behavior from Russian patriotic education to accept it as a good patriot, and one part socially learned behavior from Russian societal dynamics because Russia is a textbook example of a differentially socially adapted society. Much of what we think of as weird or bizarre or deviant or destructive Russian social, cultural, political, behavioral dynamics are really adaptations that have developed to allow Russians to survive the state, society, culture, economy, and polity that they live in. From outside they look bizarre, weird, bad, wrong. From the inside they make perfect sense because without them Russians couldn’t survive being Russians in Russia given how the state, the society, the economy, and the religion are organized.

That’s my professional assessment and I’m sticking to it.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Here’s a new slideshow from Patron’s official TikTok. They don’t embed here, so click through if you want to see it.

And a new video too!

@patron__dsns

Заперечувати не буду :))

♬ оригінальний звук – mister 5

The machine translation of the caption:

I won’t deny it :))

Open thread!

We we must reach a point when all children in our country have their own family, their own home – address by the President of Ukraine

17 September 2023 – 20:22

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I would like to express gratitude today.

To everyone who defends the sky of our country. Our pilots and engineers of the Air Force, warriors of mobile fire groups, all our anti-aircraft gunners. Thank you for constantly increasing the number of downed Russian missiles and drones, and thus the number of our people and infrastructure saved. Thank you, warriors!

And to everyone who is now on the front line. To every brigade. From Kupyansk to the left bank of Kherson region, from the Bakhmut sector to every Ukrainian position on the front line in the south of our country. I thank you guys for your might!

And today I would like to especially recognize the warriors who are gradually regaining Ukraine’s territory in the area of Bakhmut. The 80th air assault brigade, the 5th separate assault brigade, the glorious 95th and “Fury” Joint Assault Brigade of the National Police. Klishchiivka! Well done!

Today Ukraine marks Rescuer’s Day. And on Friday, I had the honor to personally thank the employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and all those whose hearts simply feel that it is impossible otherwise, that we must take care of others, that we must help others when lives depend on it. Today, I want to thank not only all our rescuers, but also all the relatives – mothers and fathers of boys and girls, men and women working in the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. I thank you for raising your children this way: to save others, to make our entire society stronger and more humane. Thank you!

Today – and this is a very symbolic coincidence – our country also marks Adoption Day. This is probably one of the most honorable missions in life – to help a child avoid an orphan’s fate. I thank everyone who helps children in this way, everyone who spreads the warmth of their families so that there are fewer lonely destinies in this world!

As a state, we must reach a point when all children in our country, all those who have been left without parental care, have their own family – their own home, their own family.

Ukraine certainly must not be associated with orphanages. I thank everyone who works for this!

Glory to everyone who helps our people and the entire country become stronger!

And we are preparing new defense decisions for Ukraine. Air defense and artillery are a priority.

Glory to Ukraine!

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and First Lady Olena Zelenska are starting their US visit. UN followed by DC. Zelensky provides some planning details below. https://t.co/WHS6wVyQrI

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 18, 2023

Full text of Zelenskyy’s tweet:

Olena @ZelenskaUA and I arrived in the United States for the high-level week of the UN General Assembly and a visit to Washington, D.C.

I will attend the General Assembly, SDG Summit, and Security Council meetings at the UN, as well as a number of important bilateral talks.

Ukraine will put out a concrete proposal to UN member states on how to fortify the principle of territorial integrity and improve the UN’s capacity to thwart and halt aggression.

In Washington, D.C., I am going to meet with @POTUS Joe Biden, leaders of the U.S. Congress’ chambers and parties, military leadership, American businesses, journalists, and members of the Ukrainian community.

I will thank the United States on behalf of Ukraine for its assistance in our struggle for independence and freedom.

🇺🇦🇺🇸

 

President Zelesnkyy sat for an interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes:

“No,” Zelensky says. But worth listening to what he says afterward to understand why. https://t.co/4QJTeRWNSs

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 18, 2023

Here’s the full interview:

⚡️ The Cabinet dismissed all deputy ministers of defense, including Hanna Malyar. This is the standard procedure when the new minister is appointed. Some of them may later return to their positions.

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 18, 2023

The documentary film 20 Days in Mariupol will represent Ukraine at the 2024 Oscars.
Mstyslav Chernov's work will compete in the Best International Feature Film category.

📹 @frontlinepbs pic.twitter.com/qEbqdCRtkE

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 18, 2023

Klischiivka:

The destroyed village of Klischiivka in the Donetsk region.

🎥 5th Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/5nVsDrkARw

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 18, 2023

Andriivka:

Andriivka, a village in the Donetsk region, bore the brunt of hostilities for over a year. russian forces left behind a trail of destruction, with not a single intact building on which the Ukrainian flag could be raised.
But thanks to the remarkable courage and skill of Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/Pb04KsClq0

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 18, 2023

Novoprokopivka-Robotyne-Verbove:

A brief 🧵thread on the Novoprokopivka-Robotyne-Verbove area updates: Through a comparative analysis of images captured on September 18th and those taken nearly two weeks ago, the landscape changes confirm the combat area and direction of current advances by the Ukrainian army pic.twitter.com/eGkG9TLhjR

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 18, 2023

3/ This is a reference map that can be used independently to verify the data. Not all changes are marked, especially those discussed in the previous thread about Novoprokopivka. Today's map primarily focuses on the eastern and northeastern parts of Novoprokopivka pic.twitter.com/4LAzoeUC5t

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 18, 2023

5/ If you found this thread valuable, please support it by liking and retweeting the first message of the thread. Your engagement enables me to provide better materials.

This imagery and analysis are made possible thanks to my supporters and Buy Me A Coffee donations

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 18, 2023

Russian occupied Sevastopol:

Here is a proper battle damage assessment of Ukraine’s attack on the Russian naval facilities in Sevastopol from H.I. Sutton, who is a naval analyst. First tweet from his thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

***UPDATE***
Thread 1/n

Refined likely damage assessment: this is an ex-submarine

New photos of #Russian navy submarine hit by #Ukrainian cruise missiles in Sevastopol show damage is even worse than previous noted. Photos appear credible. Pressure hull has massive breaches pic.twitter.com/a9doVcmHmk

— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) September 18, 2023

2.
Damage to rear section near propulsion space, as well as bow area, means basically no hull sections are likely salvageable. Implications are that internals are wrecked along most or whole length of submarineNote cutaway is port (left)

3.
This damage appears to be blown outward. One possible explanation *might* be a sympathetic battery explosion (?). Opinions welcome.

4.
Would be interesting to see reexaminations of available satellite imagery, how well does this match?However, this looks absolutely credible to me. Beware people who over-analyse with an agenda 

5.
This matches previous assessment and confirms massive damage. Combined with damage further aft, conforms in my mind that pressure hull was breached. This cannot realistically be repaired

6.
I am confident that any repair (which is anyway unrealistic) cannot be done in Sevastopol. Submarine would need to be patched and towed or on a barge, probably ti St. Petersburg. 

Source of images

I’m leaning away from the battery theory. Moot point. Whatever the reason, it is only of interest not consequence 

Re outward explosion, I’m leaning away from the battery theory. Moot point anyway. Whatever the reason, it is only of interest, not consequence 

Correction to title:

***Submarine Cutaway of the Day***

“Rostov on Gone” 

And another battle damage assessment using the same base material:

2/
If we go by this explanation, (I'm not familiar with the details on the Storm Shadow warhead) the forward half of the sub is likely even more damaged internally.https://t.co/r0JB4GWsrm

— Thord Are Iversen (@The_Lookout_N) September 18, 2023

4/
Assessment-thread by @CovertShores https://t.co/wxb5G7Iqo3

— Thord Are Iversen (@The_Lookout_N) September 18, 2023

Russia occupied Donetsk:

/2. Geolocation of strike on two Russian NONA self-propelled 120mm mortars. Donetsk area. https://t.co/9Tvkudn52p pic.twitter.com/bhcWWolv3M

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

Cyka Blyat moment. https://t.co/SExKSgjFSY pic.twitter.com/zeTFREH9F8

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

WarGonzo says the office of the so-called head of administration of the so-called DPR was hit from MLRS in Donetsk. Wonder if the attackers believed that Pushilin was there. pic.twitter.com/7RDhG0gXwe

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 18, 2023

It is reported that there was a direct hit on the administration of the head of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin. Donetsk. pic.twitter.com/tsbEuT7qIL

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

/3. Consequences, as claimed by Russian sources, there no casualties. pic.twitter.com/RxxyyOmeOa

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

Not sure where this is in Ukraine, but if you are wondering what the impact from a HIMARS strike looks like and like watching Russian military equipment go kablooey, then this video is for you!

HIMARS strike on Russian Tor-M2 surface-to-air missile system. The severity of the damage is unclear. https://t.co/GCRsrgeUc6 pic.twitter.com/Ji83FbYaFE

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

The Kinburn Peninsula:

Destroyed Russian Grad MLRS. Kinburn Peninsula, Kherson/Mykolaiv region. https://t.co/6PFL5wrhJV pic.twitter.com/W1KP8buEbg

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

Here’s a blast from the past regarding how the US and our EU and NATO allies responding to Russia scarfing up Crimea back in 2014. From Christopher Miller’s new book.

From an interview with Oleksandr Turchynov, acting President of Ukraine in 2014 during the annexation of Crimea.

Remember this the next time some idiot starts trying to impress you with their knowledge of the “maidan coup.”

(From @ChristopherJM’s very good book) pic.twitter.com/tToJCWK1Gc

— Vincent Artman (@geogvma) September 17, 2023

I mean yes. We all know the “coup” narrative is a lie based on Russian propaganda and anyone repeating it should be treated with contempt.

But seriously: even on its face it’s a narrative that makes exactly zero sense.

— Vincent Artman (@geogvma) September 17, 2023

I think what Tatarigami has stated in a tweet, which is independent of what Christopher Miller has recounted and reported in his new book, provides a stark contrast to the Obama administration’s response:

The history of Ukraine and its people is not being written with ink but with the blood of patriots. Legends are born from sacrifices and a belief in independence and a better future

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 18, 2023

The Obama administration’s response was bloodless. It was cold, calculating, and I suppose realpolitik. It was also, as I’ve written about before, the textbook answer. And I know it was the textbook answer because it was the one I gave when I was the senior civilian advisor to the commanding general of US Army Europe. When we began to focus on Russia’s intentions for Ukraine in January 2014 I began preparing a strategic assessment regarding the EuroMaidan Movement/Revolution of Dignity, Ukrainian and Russian politics, society, economy, human geography, political geography, military geography*, and what Putin’s intentions were in regard to Ukraine. I began working on this for him in the middle of January 2014 specifically because the initial discussions were framed within Russia’s narrative, which we had all simply picked up from US and western news sources. Because the US and western news sources had absorbed Putin’s framing of Russian and Ukrainian relations, as well as what the EuroMaidan Movement/Revolution of Dignity was lock, stock, and barrel. Over the next two months I wrote the strategic assessment that included all of the above, as well as threat, risk, and Red Team sections for the Old Man and the senior staff covering all of those subjects. My strategic assessment was also pushed up to the commanding general of EUCOM/Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and his senior staff and was the read of the week at EUCOM. And at the end of my assessment I made the same technically correct textbook answer to my boss, which was the same preliminary assessment that I gave him three month’s prior in January of 2014 at our initial operational planning team meeting: no one in the US would risk escalating a conflict with Russia over Crimea because Russia is a nuclear weapons state. As I’ve written here before, that was the wrong answer. It was strategically and morally incorrect.

Time and experience have taught me what I could not learn in the classroom at Carlisle Barracks: that at the strategic level the textbook answer may be technically correct, but it should serve as the starting point for strategic inquiry, analysis, and assessment, not just be the default answer. We throw around idioms like states have interests, not friends. Or pull them from Thucydides; recounting to ourselves and anyone else in ear shot the bit from the Melian dialogues that the strong do what they will while the weak suffer what they must. Time and experience have taught me that my initial impression of realpolitik was the correct one. It is a trite excuse to justify either doing nothing, when action would be morally imperative even if strategically riskier than baseline or to justify doing whatever you want regardless of whether it is strategically sound or even a good idea. For a time, including in 2014 when I needed to remember it, I forgot this assessment of realpolitik. As a result, I failed to provide my boss the conceptual arguments and ammunition he needed to bring to his discussions with his boss and that his boss could then take up with the national command authority that would have provided the valid strategic justifications for us to do far more than we did. And I am well aware that neither my boss, nor his were going to set US policy and strategy for responding to Putin’s initial invasion of Ukraine. Regardless, it was my job to give them what they needed informationally and I did not do that. I failed the Old Man and in doing so, in regard to the small part I played in this in 2014, I also failed the Ukrainians.

* Human geography is people, places, things, and how they all interact in time and space. Political geography is how political structures and institutions are organized and how the people running them make decisions. Military geography is how militaries, defense, national security, and intelligence organizations are structured and how the people running them make decisions. There is often significant overlap between political and military geography.

For those of you who are curious, here is the Melian dialogue:

F-16 training update:

‼️ The language training for the Ukrainian pilots in Texas is expected to start soon, say Pentagon officials, and it is expected to last approximately five weeks, followed by specialized F-16 training.

— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) September 18, 2023

Once they finish the five weeks in Texas, they will then be run through a specialty Defense Language Institute course to teach them how to not speak like Texans.//**

** // are sarcasm tags/indicators

Germany:

Germany is preparing a new package of military aid to Ukraine worth 400 million euros. Ammunition, vehicles, demining systems, clothing and generators. – German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius in an interview with Bild.https://t.co/yqF6SQ8vk7

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

South Korea:

South Korea will send two K600 "Rhino" minefield breaching vehicles to Ukrainehttps://t.co/IHaHmZVFdv pic.twitter.com/PH8FxJksYn

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

Well that’s going to piss off Congressman Gaetz, Senator Tuberville, and their fellow travelers. They hate rhinos.

Here’s a machine translation from Bild:

PICTURE: Minister, how do we specifically help?

Boris Pistorius: „ Our help is complex. In addition to our extensive support with weapons and material, we train Ukrainian soldiers in Germany. By the end of the year there will be 10,000. In Ramstein, for example, we check whether we can support even more with the training. “

There is no new weapon package from Germany?

Pistorius: „ But. We supply additional ammunition: explosive ammunition, mortar ammunition, mine rockets. Because ammunition is what Ukraine needs most in its defense against the brutal war of aggression. We will also help with protected vehicles and demining systems. But we also have an eye on the approaching winter: we will send clothes, but also electricity and heat generators. The package will weigh a total of 400 million euros. “

Ukraine wants one thing above all: the Taurus cruise missile. Why is it not in there?

Pistorius: „ With our help for Ukraine we ask ourselves: What are our strengths? These are our modern Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks. There is ground-based air defense. Our IRIS T SLM air defense system saves lives in Ukraine every day. We are in second place worldwide in military support for Ukraine. The Ukrainians appreciate that very much, as they keep telling me in conversations. “

Spotted somewhere in Ukraine. Putin’s tombstone, drenched in… Well, see below for the inscription. 🪦

“Putin’s a d*ckhead”

“Die yesterday, bastard!
If you want to spit, spit. If you want to piss, piss here!!” pic.twitter.com/47Mh9rJktr

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 18, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

The new episode is dedicated to the very brutal finds after de-occupation. The enemy puts explosives in toys that children pick up… We try to teach kids not to pick up unfamiliar objects, especially beautiful toys🥺

Link: https://t.co/nTFKQk1lfz pic.twitter.com/6CwMLW73ky

— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 18, 2023

And here’s the new episode from Patron’s YouTube channel:

Open thread!

We we must reach a point when all children in our country have their own family, their own home – address by the President of Ukraine

17 September 2023 – 20:22

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I would like to express gratitude today.

To everyone who defends the sky of our country. Our pilots and engineers of the Air Force, warriors of mobile fire groups, all our anti-aircraft gunners. Thank you for constantly increasing the number of downed Russian missiles and drones, and thus the number of our people and infrastructure saved. Thank you, warriors!

And to everyone who is now on the front line. To every brigade. From Kupyansk to the left bank of Kherson region, from the Bakhmut sector to every Ukrainian position on the front line in the south of our country. I thank you guys for your might!

And today I would like to especially recognize the warriors who are gradually regaining Ukraine’s territory in the area of Bakhmut. The 80th air assault brigade, the 5th separate assault brigade, the glorious 95th and “Fury” Joint Assault Brigade of the National Police. Klishchiivka! Well done!

Today Ukraine marks Rescuer’s Day. And on Friday, I had the honor to personally thank the employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and all those whose hearts simply feel that it is impossible otherwise, that we must take care of others, that we must help others when lives depend on it. Today, I want to thank not only all our rescuers, but also all the relatives – mothers and fathers of boys and girls, men and women working in the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. I thank you for raising your children this way: to save others, to make our entire society stronger and more humane. Thank you!

Today – and this is a very symbolic coincidence – our country also marks Adoption Day. This is probably one of the most honorable missions in life – to help a child avoid an orphan’s fate. I thank everyone who helps children in this way, everyone who spreads the warmth of their families so that there are fewer lonely destinies in this world!

As a state, we must reach a point when all children in our country, all those who have been left without parental care, have their own family – their own home, their own family.

Ukraine certainly must not be associated with orphanages. I thank everyone who works for this!

Glory to everyone who helps our people and the entire country become stronger!

And we are preparing new defense decisions for Ukraine. Air defense and artillery are a priority.

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy will meet with all US senators during his visit to DC next week.

NEWS — Schumer & McConnell will host an all-senators meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky on Thursday morning, per aide.

— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) September 17, 2023

Best wishes to our colleagues from @SESU_UA on Rescuer’s Day!
Every day, you rush to help our citizens who are suffering from terrorist attacks. Your bravery, strength, and unwavering dedication are truly inspiring.
We salute you, brave rescuers! pic.twitter.com/HgVAUr8iAZ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2023

The cost:

There can be no forgiveness.
For the first time, a girl sees her kindergarten after it was destroyed by russian terrorists. pic.twitter.com/qHEM5zzBiD

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2023

Uman:

Azov fighter, known as Rebbe, visited Uman for Rosh Hashanah from the eastern front lines. These are the people Russia labels as ‘nazis.’

📷 Wladyslaw Musiienko pic.twitter.com/BPjEMgHu39

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 17, 2023

Klischiivka:

The Armed Forces of #Ukraine have liberated the village of #Klishchiivka in the Donetsk region.

Glory to Ukraine! 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/uV5YA32JyU

— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) September 17, 2023

Armed Forces confirm liberation of Klishchiivka, near Bakhmut, less than 48 hours after liberation of Andriivka 🇺🇦💪🏻 pic.twitter.com/6BzFIksgK6

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 17, 2023

Bucha:

In Bucha today: life seems normal, yet the darkness of Russia's war crimes lingers pic.twitter.com/V8tTrsL40O

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 17, 2023

Cape Fiolent, Russian occupied Crimea:

Locals report an explosion in Sevastopol, Crimea. Somewhere in the area of ​​the so-called Cape Fiolent pic.twitter.com/1aNKX1OFMe

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 17, 2023

I deleted the previous post because the pic was not related to the ongoing strikes on Cape Fiolent, near Russian-occupied Sevastopol, but the news itself seems to be genuine. At least more footages are appearing.

Source: https://t.co/4IYavEC9CH#Ukraine #Sevastopol #Crimea pic.twitter.com/CGn2AUMY5I

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) September 17, 2023

Khakovka reservoir:

🧵An unusual update on the Kakhovka Reservoir. Against expectations of it remaining deserted, recent on-site observations and satellite imagery have revealed an interesting development – nature is recovering rapidly as vegetation transforms the area into a flourishing reedbed: pic.twitter.com/LVJiOV73la

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 17, 2023

3/ According to a report by Suspilne Dnipro, which includes an interview with Vadym Maniuk (video link in the image description), the area is becoming covered by native vegetation like nutsedges, reeds, sedges, and shoreline trees such as cottonwood and willow. pic.twitter.com/Wk47ReAA7e

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 17, 2023

Here is an even deeper dive on the flood plain by a former NOAA meteorologist. First tweet from the thread, the remaining forty-three or so from the Thread Reader App. Since the videos no longer load from the Thread Reader app, if you want to see them you’ll have to click through on the first tweet below and scroll down.

1/ It has been 3 months since the Russians blew-up the Kakhovka HPP dam on 6 June 2023. What is happening to the Dnipro River hydrology and ecology? What are are the options for rebuilding the HPP and possibility for a Dnipro left-bank beachhead? A #NAFOWeather 🧵
Outline: pic.twitter.com/8tZdWM8Ho3

— David Helms (@davidhelms570) September 10, 2023

2/ K-HPP Destruction Impacts:
– Irrigation/agricultural land lost: 350,000-550,000 ha
– Drinking (population 700,000) and industrial water loss
– Zaporizhzhia NPP cooling pond water supply loss
– 14,000 homes flooded, many drowned

topleadprojects.com/environmental-…
theguardian.com/world/2023/jun…

War in UA Environmental Impact | top lead projectshttps://www.topleadprojects.com/environmental-project-main

A visual guide to the collapse of Ukraine’s Nova Kakhovka damUkraine accuses Russia of blowing up Dnipro River dam, which has largely been swept awayhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/09/visual-guide-ukraine-nova-kakhovka-dam-collapse

3/ 6-11 June Water Level Changes: Nikopol (left y-axis) and Kherson City (right y-axis) from Vyshnevskyi, et al, 2023
Immediately after the Russians blew up the K-HPP dam, the Kakhovka Reservoir water level began lowering and within 6 hours, the Kherson City water level increased

4/ Sentinel 6 data Dnipro River water level observations below the K-HPP peaked at 6.81 meters (11 JUN) falling back to about 0.6 meter near normal water level. @PoleTheia
hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/…

https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0076?lang=en&#

5/ Sentinel 6 water level data near Nikopol prior to K-HPP destruction was 17.42 meters now varying between 6.06 and 6.36 meters (6 meters is pre-reservoir (1955) level average per Vyshnevskyi, et al, 2023)
ipad.fas.usda.gov/lakes/images/l…

6/ From 5 to 20 June, the water “mirror” area (aerial coverage of water) decreased to 24% of the original 2061 km**2 area, per Ukrainian Hydrological Institute using Sentinel 2 imagery

7/ Background on the Dnipro Cascade (6 reservoirs on the Dnipro River):
– The Dnipro basin extends into western Ukraine, northern Belarus, and western Russian
– Kakhovka HPP was the 6th of 6 reservoirs on the Dnipro cascade.

8/ Background on the Dnipro Cascade
The Kakhovka HPP Reservoir held 6.68 km**3 of useful water storage, about 36% of all useful water storage in the entire Dnipro Cascade.
riob.org/IMG/pdf/P-_Kov…

9/ Sentinel 6 has water level trend data are available for 3 of 5 remaining reservoirs. Kyiv and Kaniv levels are above normal, while Kremenchuk (the largest reservoir by far) water level is below normal. Reservoir level anomaly conditions from @NASA
blueice.gsfc.nasa.gov/gwm/lake/Index

https://blueice.gsfc.nasa.gov/gwm/lake/Index

10/ According to @Ukrhydroenergo , water is being discharged to generate electricity during repair of other TPP, HPP, and NPP power generation units necessary to improve system availability to meet winter demands. Trend graphs from @nasa BlueIce page.
en.uhe.gov.ua/news/operation…

Operational Information as of September 4 The average water level of the lower reservoir near the Dnipro HPP is 12.13 meters above sea level.  https://en.uhe.gov.ua/news/operational-information-september-4

11/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Kakhovka – Lower Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Optimized Color 

12/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Kakhovka – Lower Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Chlorophyll-a (thanks @tom_bike!)
Chlorophyll-a algorithm does a good job identifying open water & water quality (eutrophication, algae) from dry land 

13/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Novovorontsovka – Middle Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Optimized Color
Note wetland area near Novovorontsovka seems to increase and decrease. 

14/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Novovorontsovka – Middle Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Chlorophyll-a
Note bright green (elevated algae populations) in isolated pools. 

15/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Nikopol-Enerhodar Upper Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Optimized Color
Note significant wetland area on right bank of Dnipro main channel (upstream of Nikopol) 

16/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Nikopol-Enerhodar Upper Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Chlorophyll-a 

17/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Vasylivka – Upper Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Optimized Color 

18/ Focus on the Dnipro Floodplain (former Kakhovka Reservoir) time-series, JUN-SEP 2023
Vasylivka – Upper Floodplain
Sentinel 2 Chlorophyll-a
The isolated wetlands near Vasylivka have such high algae concentration, it is difficult to discriminate from marsh grasses in NDVI. 

19/ Dnipro Floodplain Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
So we are seeing wetland in 20-25% of the Dnipro floodplain (former Kakhovka reservoir). Were there wetlands at these locations 80 years ago? 170 years ago? Let’s check old photography and maps
oldmaps.dp.ua/greatlug/?left…

https://oldmaps.dp.ua/greatlug/?leftmap=1917&rightmap=50723#12/47.5105/34.1050

20/ Dnipro Floodplain Wetlands Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
Novovorontsovka: Wetlands remarkably similar now as in 1943 and 1853

21/ Dnipro Floodplain Wetlands Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
Kapulivka: More extensive wetlands now than in 1943 and 1853

22/ Dnipro Floodplain Wetlands Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
Vasylivka: Similar wetland now as in 1943 and 1853

23/ Dnipro Floodplain Wetlands Comparison – Current to 1943 and 1853
Nikopol-Enerhodar: Different (larger) wetland area on right bank now than in 1943 and 1853; drainage likely disrupted due to dredging and levees.

24/ “Great Meadow”/“Velykyi Luh”
Will the future look like the past?
“Velykyi Luh” was once home to the Zaporozhian Cossacks, with settlements, roads, buildings, all flooded in 1955.
Vasyliuk, et al, 2023
uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-…

It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive – Ukrainian Nature Conservation GroupVelykyi Luh (means Great Meadow) is one of the most important natural and historical landscapes of Ukraine. This area was flooded in 1955-1958 with construction of Kakhovske Reservoir, despite the fac…https://uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-for-velykyi-luh-to-revive/

25/ This is a 90 day timeline of Dnipro floodplain images posted to Twitter since 6 June 2023. The images show the floodplain in 3 phases:
Draining -> Drying -> Pioneering
Image sources include: @aborealis940 @nexta_tv @KyivPost @astraiaintel @huruank @NOELreports @MamedovGyunduz

26/ Month 2 – Drying “Takyrization”:
“In a dry state, takyr soils are characterized by high strength, and in the dry period, they can even be used for vehicular traffic. But wet takyr soils become highly plastic, viscous, and impassable.”
Dr. Yakiv Didukh
en.ecoaction.org.ua/fate-of-kakhov…

What will be the fate of the Kakhovka Sea?The destruction of the Kakhovka HPP is a large-scale environmental disaster.https://en.ecoaction.org.ua/fate-of-kakhovka-sea.html

27/ Month 3 – Pioneering
“Headlines stating ‘the bottom of the reservoir is turning into a desert’ that appear in the media are incorrect and short-sighted.” Prof Didukh
Prof Didukh believes the 75-80% the Dnipro floodplain will likely a woody thicket rather than a meadow.

28/ What will the Dnipro floodplain vegetation look like if the water level is left at the current level?
It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive
Oleksiy Vasyliuk, et al, 2023

@ecodiya @ackerm_ann @_UNCG_ uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-…

It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive – Ukrainian Nature Conservation GroupVelykyi Luh (means Great Meadow) is one of the most important natural and historical landscapes of Ukraine. This area was flooded in 1955-1958 with construction of Kakhovske Reservoir, despite the fac…https://uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-for-velykyi-luh-to-revive/

29/ After Ukraine removes Russian invades from its territories, the Dnipro floodplain probably won’t be left at the current water level. Several papers outline the 4 hydrotechnical options (see table); no single solution meets all national requirements.

30/ What is the potential for wheeled or tracked vehicles crossing the Dnipro floodplain to establish a beachhead in next 2-4 months? Prof Didukh “In a dry state, takyr soils are characterized by high strength, and in the dry period, they can even be used for vehicular traffic.” 

31/ While June & July were relatively wet, August & September have been dry. Over a 90 day period, the Standardized Precipitation Index for the Dnipro basin has been near normal, but the past 30 days lack of rain has caused fire risks to most of Ukraine.
meteo.gov.ua/en/Pozhezhni-p…

Fire Hazard. UHMCFire Hazard. Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centerhttps://www.meteo.gov.ua/en/Pozhezhni-poperedzhennya

32/ EU GloFAS Hydrologic Prediction System has 2 river flow rate points on the Dnipro floodplain below K-HPP:
Seasonal Forecast Point #564 – Dnipro Power Plant 47.875N 35.075E
Seasonal Forecast Point #629 – Kakhovskoye Vodokhranilishche Ges 46.75N 33.15E
globalfloods.eu/glofas-forecas…

https://www.globalfloods.eu/glofas-forecasting/

33/ EU GloFAS seasonal median forecast flow rate for Dnipro HPP is lower than typical flow rate through October, then slightly above typical flow for November 2023.

34/ EU GloFAS seasonal median forecast flow rate for Nova Kakhovka is also lower than typical flow rate through October, then slightly above typical flow for November 2023 (although the forecast initial conditions seems off).

35/ Climatic soil moisture for Kherson is typically marginal to good through early November supporting wheeled and tracked vehicles, degrading after November.

36/ Frost depth will likely be sufficient to support wheeled vehicles in the Dnipro floodplain by mid to late January 2024 through February 2024 with thaws during this 6 week window.
meteoblue.com/en/weather/his…

Simulated historical climate & weather data for Nikopol – meteoblueSee historical weather data for Nikopol. ✓ Climate charts ✓ Hourly simulations ✓ High resolutionhttps://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/nikopol_ukraine_700051

37/ Of course, the Dnipro floodplain near Nikopol has seen successful bridging operations back in WWII.
reddit.com/r/ww2/comments…

https://www.reddit.com/r/ww2/comments/u02pvl/a_column_of_german_vehicles_crosses_the_dnieper/#

38/ Description of the difficulty the Germans had defending their Nikopol bridgehead against the advancing Russians:
warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/battle…

Battle for the Ore Deposits: The Red Army vs. Nazi GermanyThe Soviet Red Army fought the Nazis for control of some of the world’s richest ore deposits.https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/battle-for-the-ore-deposits-the-red-army-vs-nazi-germany/

39/ A beachhead across the Dnipro floodplain offers some advantages such as fewer fortifications than south of Orikhiv per @bradyafr

Unroll available on Thread Reader

40/ The Russians have likely been redeploying forces away from the Dnipro left bank to defend UAF advances near Robotyne

41/ While the *weather* may allow bridging operations at selected locations until November 1st and again in late January/February, building and protecting a pontoon bridge is very vulnerable to artillery, FPV and missile attacks, especially for the Dnipro.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

42/ Recall the RF bridging operation on 8 May 2022 where UAF artillery destroyed 500 RF troops and RF 80 vehicles in a rather modest bridging operation across the Siverskyi Donets River.

43/ Ultimately, a successful UAF Dnipro bridging operation will come down to acceptable weather (river width and floodplain trafficability) and most importantly, local air defense and large enough bridgehead to push back RF artillery. /end 

Additional Reading:
What will be the fate of the Kakhovka Sea?
27 July 2023
Dr. Yakiv Didukh
Head of department, Department of Geobotany and Ecology, M. G. Kholodny Institute of Botany
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

What will be the fate of the Kakhovka Sea?The destruction of the Kakhovka HPP is a large-scale environmental disaster.https://en.ecoaction.org.ua/fate-of-kakhovka-sea.html

It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive
22 August 2023
Authors: Oleksiy Vasyliuk, Viktor Parkhomenko, Ivan Moisiienko, Viktor Shapoval, Serhiy Panchenko and Oleksandr Spriahailo. We would like to thank Yevhen Simonov for his important advice.

It is time for Velykyi Luh to revive – Ukrainian Nature Conservation GroupVelykyi Luh (means Great Meadow) is one of the most important natural and historical landscapes of Ukraine. This area was flooded in 1955-1958 with construction of Kakhovske Reservoir, despite the fac…https://uncg.org.ua/en/it-is-time-for-velykyi-luh-to-revive/

The destruction of the Kakhovka dam and its consequences
23 August 2023

@PeterGleick
Citation: Viktor Vyshnevskyi, et al (2023) The destruction of the Kakhovka dam and its consequences, Water International, 48:5, 631-647,

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02508060.2023.2247679

THE GLORIOUS ZAPORIZHZHYA

http://cossacks-uan.net/en/vkd/the-glorious-aporizhzhya.html

Rebuilding Ukraine’s ruined Nova Kakhovka dam pits history against economic reality
19 June 2023

Rebuilding Ukraine’s ruined Nova Kakhovka dam pits history against economic reality | CBC NewsAmid the spoiled farmland and destroyed crops, the waterlogged homes and ruined lives, the now slow-motion tragedy that is the draining of the Kakhovka reservoir is also peeling back time on an almost…https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-kakhovka-dam-rebuilding-1.6880319

Ukrhydro Telegram

“If the Kakhovskaya HPP is not rebuilt, there will never be agriculture in the South at all,” Oleg Pendzyn, a member of the economic discussion club, told UNIAN.t.me/ukrhydroenergo…

Укргідроенерго3 місяці з моменту підриву Каховської ГЕС. Яка наразі ситуація та які заходи задля відбудови вже здійснено у прямому ефірі Марафону «Єдині новини» для телеканалу ICTV розповів генеральний директор Укр…https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/4222

Укргідроенерго«Якщо не відбудувати Каховську ГЕС, сільського господарства на Півдні взагалі ніколи не буде», – про це зазначив УНІАН член економічного дискусійного клубу Олег Пендзин. Економіст розповів, чому без …https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/4141

*invaders

Somewhere in Chechnya:

Kadyrov posted a video of himself after rumors stated that he was in a bad condition.

"I strongly advise everyone who cannot distinguish truth from lies on the internet to take a walk in the fresh air and put their thoughts in order. The rain is perfectly invigorating," he said. pic.twitter.com/Gq2HfyTBLQ

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) September 17, 2023

pic.twitter.com/uNVPLRrIMN

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) September 17, 2023

Baruk Khazâd! Khazâd ai-mênu!

What?

Anyhow, this was why I resisted posting the RUMINT that Kadyrov was in a coma and near death.

It’s HIMARS O’Clock!

HIMARS time! pic.twitter.com/Os77cHKb1W

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2023

Obligatory:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron:

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. So here is some Patron adjacent material from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense.

True happiness. pic.twitter.com/tBguEvTIhA

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2023

Open thread!

Our task is to provide Ukraine with all the opportunities to produce weapons and ammunition to have reliable protection against aggression – address of the President

16 September 2023 – 18:50

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainian men and women!

Today is a meaningful day – we are preparing for a strong second half of September. Strong in terms of our international work with partners and the decisions we are implementing here in Ukraine.

Dozens of negotiations have already been planned, and there is a clear schedule of meetings.

There will also be clear and specific results.

Another important point to mention.

We are continuing to prepare for the Defense Industries Forum, the first event of its kind to take place in Ukraine. It will happen this autumn.

Interest in the Forum is very high. This fully reflects Ukraine’s strength and potential – our ability to defend ourselves and help other countries preserve freedom and international order… Already, 86 leading defense companies from around the world – representing 21 countries – have confirmed their participation in the Forum.

Our task is absolutely clear – to provide Ukraine with all the opportunities to produce weapons and ammunition, to provide modern technology to have reliable protection against any form of aggression. Moreover, of course, to share our defense experience among allies and partners. The world must be stronger than any threat to life from aggressors or terrorists.

This week, we have made significant progress in implementing existing defense agreements and other support packages.

Denmark – thank you for the new defense package, which is already the 12th package. Equipment, ammunition, and missiles for our air defense. Germany – thank you for the new batch of military aid. Belgium – your participation in our pilot training is approved. Thank you! Norway – your decision to provide additional funding for Ukraine’s recovery. It’s crucial. Thank you! South Korea – thank you for the new financial support agreement! The United States – the new sanctions decision to limit Russia’s ability to engage in terror. Thank you!

And, of course, our warriors. All brigades and units currently in combat.

Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions. And those who have already achieved important results for Ukraine this week, and those who, I am confident, are preparing to contribute to Ukraine’s success.

Thank you! We are all proud of our warriors and are committed to strengthening our defense and security forces!

Glory to Ukraine!

Under the protection of the #UAarmy.

Art by @ShapovalYura pic.twitter.com/vyPukvRcae

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 16, 2023

Andriivka:

The liberation of Andriivka.

🎥 3rd Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/SGp6cljOlw

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 16, 2023

The unwelcome «guests» in Andriivka are being removed by the 3rd Assault Brigade. pic.twitter.com/pk5kGvrGWu

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 16, 2023

Svitlodarsk:

/2. Geolocations of the strikes.
🟥First strike – (48.4372420, 38.2261096)
🟦Second strike – (48.4372287, 38.2248181)
P.S: IMHO, looks like it could be JDAM pic.twitter.com/cqQFF79cY0

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 16, 2023

/3. Buk-M2 and Buk-M3 Geolocation
~26km from the front line https://t.co/zmMd02qiWn pic.twitter.com/25RGUSdRTD

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 16, 2023

In addition to the previous post, Russian-occupied Svitlodarsk was hit as well. It is not mentioned what kind of missiles were used but the explosions look similar to JDAM strikes.

Coordinates:

48°26'14"N 38°13'30"E

Source: https://t.co/54NFqyDHeH#Ukraine #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/A4spGoXAzb

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) September 16, 2023

Russian occupied Sevastopol:

2/When comparing @BlackSky_Inc 's imagery from September 13th with Planet's from September 15th, I've noticed a green tarp on the submarine's rear section. While its exact purpose is unclear, its presence is unusual, hinting at alleged efforts to conceal something. pic.twitter.com/n1JFOA9uZq

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 16, 2023

4/ Considering that none of these objects are visible in the imagery from the 13th, and it appears that the russians are taking measures to conceal something, it could suggest that not everything is as well as they are trying to portray. pic.twitter.com/ZXSRYLCuOo

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 16, 2023

6/ Your contributions via Buy Me A Coffee have enabled the availability of this satellite imagery and others. If you found this thread valuable, please support it by liking and retweeting the first message of the thread. Your engagement enables me to provide better materials

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 16, 2023

For you logistics and acquisitions fans:

Some disturbing news from @PaperMissiles. ⬇️

Last November the Biden Admin pledged 250 M1117 Armored Security Vehicles for Ukraine. They were to be refurbished with USAI funds, then donated via the Excess Defense Articles program.

They won't be ready for another 18 months. https://t.co/18jJl8H1YA pic.twitter.com/4piEb1quzw

— Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (@ColbyBadhwar) September 15, 2023

To which I would add that, since Abrams only just arrived, we can anticipate a fairly long fall and winter in Ukraine. Shutting off the spigots or belt-tightening might seem acceptable as weather slows the war, but we've not seen war like this, there, in winter, since WWII.

— Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk (@PaperMissiles) September 15, 2023

See no beneficial political or military reason to keep our unilateral restraint on ATACMS in place. Winter is coming, and so is an election.

— Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk (@PaperMissiles) September 15, 2023

Understand there's much to accelerate this to shorter than a year and a half, but the foot-dragging is pretty amazing on something that Colombia and Kosovo have, now. I mean, the damn war may be over by the time any of the 250 ASVs we pledged arrive.

— Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk (@PaperMissiles) September 15, 2023

The drawdown authorization that the Biden administration has been using is only authorized for FY2023. It expires in two weeks. As of now the Biden administration has not asked for either a renewal or a new authorization for FY2024. This is going to be a major problem. And it rolls into something I did a thread on at Bluesky today.

This past week Putin promoted Andrei Mordvichev to colonel-general. Mordvichev is the commander of the Central Military District and Russian Central Grouping of Forces in Ukraine. In a July interview he had this to say:

💬 This war will last for a long time, because we still need to liberate Eastern Europe, says Russian general and war criminal Andrei Mordvichev.

The interview was recorded at the end of July this year and Mordvichev assumed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would slow down by… pic.twitter.com/MB9m1YYcLV

— TheKremlinYap (@TheKremlinYap) September 9, 2023

Here’s the quote from The Daily Beast:

When asked about the length of the war in Ukraine, Mordvichev responded that he has an understanding that Russia has to attack Eastern Europe. “If we’re talking about Eastern Europe, which we’ll have to attack, it will be longer and longer,” Mordvichev said. When asked if Ukraine is “only an intermediate stage,” Mordvichev replied that Ukraine is just a stepping stone to other attacks.

Mordvichev isn’t freelancing here. He’s communicating the actual policy position of Putin and Russia for both the genocidal war against Ukraine and the intentions for eastern Europe. While the Ukrainians resolve has demonstrated that Russia does not have the capability, the ways and means, to achieve these ends at this time, one of the ways in Russia’s strategy is to play for time. Putin is counting on changes via elections in the US over the next year. He is counting on a new refugee crisis created by the food scarcity crisis he is creating with his embargo of Ukrainian grain and other foodstuffs and attacks on Ukraine’s granaries and food production & storage facilities. He is counting on those refugees showing up in Europe during the winter and that it will be a cold winter this year, not like the past one. As such he’s playing for time for the crises he’s creating to set the conditions for his proxies in various EU states to take political advantage. He’s also counting on the food crisis he’s creating to drive global food prices back up, reigniting inflation in the US, which is currently on the way back down, to further increase the chances that the GOP will win the presidency and retain at least one chamber of Congress in 2024.

Whether this actually works, whether he can create enough food scarcity in the global south to recreate the refugee crisis his strategy facilitated as part of Russia’s theater strategy in the Syrian Civil War remains to be seen. But the play for time portion of his Ukraine theater strategy is a key component of it. If Russia’s forces can hold on to enough of the Ukrainian territory they are occupying, to make the conflict seem frozen, that creates the strategic space for the other lines of effort to play out. Putin is counting on the US and the EU states eventually having political turnover as a result of fatigue from their support for Ukraine. Political turnover that will either greatly reduce or end that support. This would then create even further strategic space for Russia to extend their control over the portions of Ukraine under occupation, while rebuilding its military capability for a third attempt to take Ukraine. This would then be used for eventual future operations to reclaim what Putin perceives as the other wayward states in Europe that are supposed to be in Russia’s sphere of influence, near abroad, and the Russian world.

Putin’s strategy ties into the expiring drawdown authority because 1) the Biden administration hasn’t asked for an extension, 2) most likely because they know they can’t get it through the GOP controlled House, and 3) even if they could it might now survive a GOP filibuster in the Senate. Several of you sent me Senator Cotton’s letter to President Biden asking him to speed up and increase the amount of munitions we’re sending to Ukraine.

I wrote to President Biden with my colleagues and urged him to provide Ukraine with the missiles its military needs to win. Not doing so will only prolong the war and cost lives. pic.twitter.com/MBhG2H7Oa7

— Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton) September 16, 2023

That’s not enough Republican senator co-signers to break a filibuster. And while there are more GOP senators that support Ukraine, if the Biden administration doesn’t ask for a renewal of the drawdown authorization we will never know how they may or may not vote.

Here’s some Ukrainian acquisitions news for you all:

KYIV, Sept 16 (Reuters) – Ukraine will be able to conduct more drone attacks on Russian warships, a Ukrainian minister who has played a key role in building the country’s drone industry told Reuters after a recent series of sea raids.

“There will be more drones, more attacks, and fewer Russian ships. That’s for sure,” Digital Transformation minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in an interview on Friday, answering a question about recent attacks near Crimea.

This week, Ukraine has made several attacks using sea drones and missiles on Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet in and around the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed from Ukraine by Russia in 2014.

In a sign of growing confidence, Ukraine has recently claimed responsibility for attacks on Crimea, having previously not directly confirmed involvement in blasts at military targets there.

Russia has acknowledged a Ukrainian missile attack that damaged a warship and a submarine this week, but says it has repelled all sea drone attacks.

On Thursday, Fedorov posted a grainy video on social media that appeared to be filmed from a vessel heading towards a much larger warship, followed by an explosion.

He said at the time that attack was the work of Ukrainian systems paid for by funds from a government-run crowdfunding platform that raises money for equipment including drones.

Fedorov also said Ukraine’s aerial drone production had increased by over 100 times in 2023 from last year.

“I think it’ll be an increase of around 120 to 140 times by the end of this year, if you compare it to the previous one.”

According to the minister, Ukraine is testing AI systems that can locate targets several kilometres away and guide drones to them even if external communications are disrupted by electronic warfare measures.

“We need AI, for instance the technology for finding targets, just like how the Lancet (a Russian drone) operates, so that a target can be located under electronic warfare and destroyed.”

“At the moment it’s all at the testing stage, but some drones we are buying use AI to recognise targets. In a forest, it can detect a target and recognise whether it’s a person, tank, or a certain vehicle. These technologies are being used actively.”

The London Ukraine Review has published an excerpt from Victoria Amelina’s unfinished final book.

'The Shell Hole in the Fairy Tale' is a previously unpublished excerpt from the book Looking At Women Looking At War: A War & Justice Diary which Victoria Amelina was working on when a Russian missile took her life. Read in the London Ukrainian Review:https://t.co/lh3UeP8Kx7

— London Ukrainian Review (@ukrlondonreview) September 16, 2023

This is a previously unpublished excerpt from the book Looking At Women Looking At War: A War & Justice Diary which Victoria Amelina was working on when a Russian missile took her life. This entry reminds us of the days just before the full-scale invasion when Russia had already escalated attacks on the eastern regions of Ukraine.

I just bought my first gun in downtown Lviv. I’ve heard that everyone is capable of killing, and those who say they aren’t just haven’t met the right person yet. An armed stranger entering my country might be just the ‘right person’.

My new gun lies black and hazardous, on the bed, among all my swimming suits and bright summer dresses. I might need it later when I come back. But not yet. Now we are going on vacation to Egypt.

‘We’ll come back to Ukraine on 24 February, and I’ll start going to shooting practice’, I explain to my son, who has been watching too much news for his age in the past few months but isn’t afraid of the invasion at all.

I put the gun into a safe and our swimming suits into a suitcase.

The invasion didn’t happen yesterday, on 16 February 2022. So I head out the door, full of hope that it will not happen at all. After all, the full-scale Russian invasions have been rescheduled for the past eight years since 2014.

‘Mom, when’s the next time we get invaded?’ my ten-year-old jokes, like many adults in Ukraine.

At the last moment, I turn around and run to the bedroom. I use a chair to reach the jewellery box on the higher shelf. What if Kharkiv, Kyiv, and even Lviv will soon look like ruined Aleppo or Grozny? What do I take now if I am not coming home? Ever.

‘Mom, we’re going to miss the flight!’

I take one pendant, gold-plated silver with little rubies. I have it from my grandma, the only jewellery her mother had left her, and thus the oldest family relic I have. The great-grandmother who left it to us was born in Russia, somewhere on the Volga river. My Ukrainian grandmother and two Ukrainian grandfathers didn’t have such old things; for them, everything was gone with the wind in the turmoil of the last century in Ukraine, the heart of the bloodlands.

I put the pendant with rubies on as if it were my soldier’s badge.

In line for a security check at the airport, I cannot stop staring at the news on my smartphone. Around 9 am, an artillery shell hit the ‘Fairy Tale’ kindergarten in Stanytsia Luhanska, making a hole in the wall of the children’s gym. The photo of the kindergarten is difficult to comprehend: a shell hole in one of the walls, a painted magical island with palm trees and animals on another, yellow ornamented wallpaper, which still makes the kindergarten room look cosy, and numerous footballs in the pile of broken bricks.

I visited Stanytsia Luhanska near the contact line a couple of years ago to meet with the community in the local history museum. I was met by its kind deputy director and its bizarre exhibition: the damaged bust of Lenin hit by a Russian shell, the older shells from the Second World War, and the new ones, including those that conveniently got to the museum right through its roof. Through the small window, I looked to ‘the other side’, the territory occupied by Russia or, according to the occupiers, ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’, a place from where all the shells, except those from the Second World War, have come. Back then, the deputy director took my books to add to the museum collection, as if contemporary Ukrainian literature was a wonder under the circumstances.

Staring at the picture of the ruined kindergarten gym long enough, I realize what the magic island with palm trees represents: a scene from a Soviet cartoon. Alas, the beloved characters from my post-Soviet childhood, the elephant, the monkey, and the boa, stare from behind the palm trees at the pile of broken bricks, just like I do. This pile is between the Russified little girl I used to be and me.

‘No children were killed or injured in Stanytsia Luhanska as no one was in the gym at the time of the shelling’, I read in the news. So, we’re all lucky.

I often tell myself how lucky we all are, as if arguing with the last line of the famous Serhiy Zhadan poem, which tells the story of refugees from a city that ‘was built of stone and steel’ but doesn’t exist anymore. Serhiy wrote it in 2015 after Russia occupied the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk and the Crimea peninsula. I only paid attention to the poem in 2018 when I saw it written on a wall on Peace Avenue in Mariupol.

Much, much more at the link!

One final note for tonight. I want to make it clear that I’m not disillusioned regarding doing these daily updates. Rather, as a national security professional I am not longer sure that the type of work I was doing while on the full time assignment last year or would do if I were to take another one is useful. As in I’m not sure what positive difference I’m making these days. It isn’t burn out per se. I just don’t know what, nor am I able to see what the point is anymore. As such I’m looking for opportunities that allow me to use my education, experience, and expertise to make a positive impact outside the defense enterprise. I feel like it is time for a change.

Relatedly, if I write that I’m required to do something because of the rules of my profession, you can trust me that I am honestly explaining it to you. You don’t have to ask people in comments who are not in my profession whether I’m being honest with you all. I know the rules I have to follow and I follow them because if I don’t it can cost me my career. Even if it is a career I’m no longer sure I want.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There isn’t a new Patron tweet today, but this is Patron adjacent.

Emergency services do an amazing job in building trust. Therapy dog Banana is a total star and a favorite of mine pic.twitter.com/fGIkohdUTa

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 16, 2023

And here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

🤭🎹🐾

♬ original sound – Krystallloh – Krystallloh

Open thread.