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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Mubarak out Mubarak out?

Mubarak out Mubarak out?

by DougJ|  February 10, 20113:50 pm| 90 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs

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I don’t know if this is a victory for freedom, a frightening win for Islamic extremists, a crushing blow to Obama’s foreign policy, or all of the above.

President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt prepared to address the nation Thursday, with government officials indicating that they expected him to step aside, and Egypt’s military announcing that it is intervening in state affairs in an attempt to stop a three-week-old uprising.

The military declared on state television that it would take measures “to maintain the homeland and the achievements and the aspirations of the great people of Egypt” and meet the demands of the protesters who have insisted on ending Mr. Mubarak’s 30-year rule.

Several government officials said Mr. Mubarak was expected to announce his own resignation and pass authority to his hand-picked vice president, Omar Suleiman. But if the military does assume formal control of the government, it remains uncertain if it would give Mr. Suleiman, a former military officer, a leading role.

I’m still hoping that at least one leader emerges who spent Michaelmas term at Oxford with David Ignatius and Arianna Huffiington.

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Reader Interactions

90Comments

  1. 1.

    General Stuck

    February 10, 2011 at 3:52 pm

    a crushing blow to Obama’s foreign policy

    It’s this, always, no exceptions – from Obama opponents left and right. The other two remain to be seen.

  2. 2.

    El Cid

    February 10, 2011 at 3:53 pm

    Mubarak is not out. In his speech on state TV, he said that he refused to be forced out, he’d be there until the elections, he’ll uphold all his sacred commitments as a fraudulently elected military tyrant for 30+ years, and he feels really bad for all those who died in order to demand that Mubarak begin to say nice things about reforms.

  3. 3.

    General Stuck

    February 10, 2011 at 3:54 pm

    @El Cid:

    Well, I read the rumor earlier that he may be stepping down.

    DougJ???

  4. 4.

    me

    February 10, 2011 at 3:55 pm

    He’s talking right now and so far he is not saying he’s going.

  5. 5.

    Zifnab

    February 10, 2011 at 3:56 pm

    Several government officials said Mr. Mubarak was expected to announce his own resignation and pass authority to his hand-picked vice president

    Meet the new boss…

    It’s a step in the right direction. But it’s a baby step. If Egyptians think Mubarak is the only man in the country that can win an election with 102% of the vote, they’re going to be very upset in the coming months.

  6. 6.

    A Commenter at Balloon Juice (formerlyThe Grand Panjandrum)

    February 10, 2011 at 3:56 pm

    Nope. @General Stuck is right. Mubarak just gave the protesters the finger. He’s going, just not today.

  7. 7.

    fasteddie9318

    February 10, 2011 at 3:56 pm

    He’s talking right now and, uh, he ain’t leaving.

  8. 8.

    Ash Can

    February 10, 2011 at 3:56 pm

    @El Cid: Yep, he still refuses to step down. This can’t possibly make that enormous crowd in Tahrir Square happy.

    DougJ, it looks like you need to change your title, unfortunately.

  9. 9.

    matoko_chan

    February 10, 2011 at 3:58 pm

    and the winner is!
    the egyptian people.
    i think mubarak is not stepping down….but i think the people are going to MAKE him. hes trying to argue he needs to stay for the transition.
    oh, and these guys are the real winners……in the long game.

  10. 10.

    fasteddie9318

    February 10, 2011 at 3:58 pm

    Did I just hear right that he’s not even going to lift the state of emergency?

    Goddamn, I feel bad for the Egyptian people but I can’t help but laugh at the balls on this fucking guy.

  11. 11.

    Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)

    February 10, 2011 at 3:58 pm

    @El Cid: The reports I’m seeing online are still speculative – talking about what he *might say* in the speech. Where can I find details of the actual speech he gave on Egyptian state TV?

    Military takeover, even temporary, doesn’t have a good track record in Africa, North or Subsaharan. The protesters might come to regret it if that’s what happens. Here’s hoping the Egyptian army is made of better stuff than most in the event that they do play a role in governing.

  12. 12.

    Tsulagi

    February 10, 2011 at 3:59 pm

    I don’t know if this is a victory for freedom, a frightening win for Islamic extremists, a crushing blow to Obama’s foreign policy, or all of the above.

    Think I’d go with E: None of the above.

  13. 13.

    Sockpuppet

    February 10, 2011 at 4:00 pm

    That will teach you to regurgitate the New York Times.

    Tomorrow in Tahrir should be fun.

    Oh, and everybody should follow Sultan Al Qassemi on twitter.

  14. 14.

    shortstop

    February 10, 2011 at 4:01 pm

    Think about how Mubarak felt when he read that declarative headline (before it was changed to an interrogative). I bet just like Mark Kelly.

  15. 15.

    R-Jud

    February 10, 2011 at 4:01 pm

    @fasteddie9318: From the Guardian:

    “Mubarak says he’s asked for the amendment of articles 76, 77, 88, 93 and 181 of the constitution, and abolishing the controversial article 179.”

    179 is the state of emergency laws.

  16. 16.

    Sentient Puddle

    February 10, 2011 at 4:01 pm

    Wait hold on, did I just hear wrong, or did he say he WAS transferring power to the VP?

    I mean, this really isn’t the kind of speech that someone gives if they’re not sticking around…

  17. 17.

    matoko_chan

    February 10, 2011 at 4:01 pm

    @El Cid: did you see my Muslim Brotherhood link, el Campeador?
    here, ill link it again just for you.

  18. 18.

    cjdavis

    February 10, 2011 at 4:02 pm

    Split screen on Al Jazeera between “Egypt State TV” and “Liberation Square” is pretty amazing. http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

    I don’t see this ending well.

  19. 19.

    fasteddie9318

    February 10, 2011 at 4:03 pm

    @R-Jud: OK; that’s what happens when you take your earbuds out and then put them back in in the middle of something important.

  20. 20.

    matoko_chan

    February 10, 2011 at 4:03 pm

    why is the crowd cheering?
    do we hav bad translation?
    oh….they are not cheering.
    riot time?

  21. 21.

    shortstop

    February 10, 2011 at 4:04 pm

    This is all an interesting study in the reality filters of superannuated old assholes who seriously cannot let go of power. Like Arlen Specter but with violence. Well, denial ain’t just a river in Egypt.

  22. 22.

    Morbo

    February 10, 2011 at 4:04 pm

    Shorter Hosni Mubarak: “La la la, can’t hear you; la la la, can’t hear you!”

  23. 23.

    El Cid

    February 10, 2011 at 4:04 pm

    ‘And the youth are cool too, and I gave them dialogues to feel like our military regime will be a lot better now. I really looked close at the proposed Constitutional amendments by the commission I created, and so I’m going to think about changing 6 of those amendments. This might happen later, if I think it’s a good idea.

    ‘There will be a peaceful transition of power, to someone or else, and we’ll think about who we’ll let run. We might even allow opposition parties. The big thing is streamlining how candidates are picked. And I’m totally committed to stopping my fake elections. We’ll even put judges into the process.

    ‘My VP/Torturer/Intel Chief will help restore confidence in our government and economy and international reputation.

    ‘Again, I say, it was a terrible thing for all those who died, and our prosecutor will check into it.

    ‘OUR process of improvement we’re going through now will never be reversed! You guys have taught me so much!

    ‘But seriously, knock it off. Go home. You’re hurting Egypt. Business is down. There’s a national dialogue — what more do you people want? I said I’d listen to this dialogue!

    ‘You know, I was young like you too. I learned in the military how to be awesome. I kicked ass. I hoisted our flag over Sinai. You know I’m all about peace and development.

    ‘Me? I never sought power for personal reasons. (That several tens of billions of dollars I got? I’m just really good at games of chance.) Never.

    ‘The will of the people cannot be denied! Unless I deny it! Ain’t nobody pushing me us around! We ain’t no damn puppet from some damn for’n power! How could anyone think that?

    ‘Egypt is awesome. We kick ass. It’s our pride that sent me here. Our heroic spirit will live on, in the sense that you people are going to go back home and relax because I got this.’

  24. 24.

    joes527

    February 10, 2011 at 4:05 pm

    Mubarak stepping down would have been a crushing blow for Obama.

    The fact that he isn’t stepping down is a crushing blow for Obama.

    And if it turns out he, actually is stepping down, that will be a crushing blow for Obama.

    Can’t we all at least agree on that?

  25. 25.

    fasteddie9318

    February 10, 2011 at 4:05 pm

    @Sentient Puddle: I believe he did say he would turn over authority to Suleiman, but not sure I heard right. It would make sense, because in the constitution if he were to step aside the speaker of the assembly would become president, and he’s not a military guy. Staying on in title allows him to pass power off to Suleiman, the military guy.

  26. 26.

    Sentient Puddle

    February 10, 2011 at 4:06 pm

    So the takeaway I’m getting is…something just happened in Egypt, but nobody knows what.

    Nice.

  27. 27.

    R-Jud

    February 10, 2011 at 4:06 pm

    Again from the Graun: “The chant is: “Get out, get out.””

    As my grandmother would say: Oh, shitballs.

  28. 28.

    El Cid

    February 10, 2011 at 4:08 pm

    @matoko_chan: I’ve read about the MB for years. Maybe you fantasize that you’re better informed about them than I am. This article is a pale reflection of the deeper analyses you can find in many sources. It’s a summary Atlantic article written for people who have no idea what’s going on in Egypt.

    Asi hablo el que en buen ora cinxo espada.

  29. 29.

    fasteddie9318

    February 10, 2011 at 4:09 pm

    @R-Jud: Huwa imshi, huwa imshi

    It’s like telling a child to scram; there’s actually an insulting quality to it when speaking to or about an adult, let alone the president.

  30. 30.

    SB Jules

    February 10, 2011 at 4:09 pm

    He is handing over some of his powers to the vice president, but he’s staying. The crowd is not happy.

  31. 31.

    JGabriel

    February 10, 2011 at 4:09 pm

    DougJ @ Top:

    I don’t see Boehner getting behind the scandal-mongering the way Gingrich did …

    Eventually, Fox will find someone more hardcore to promote for the Speaker position. Fox is slowly remaking the GOP in its own Teatard image.

    I’m still hoping that at least one leader emerges who spent Michaelmas term at Oxford with David Ignatius and Arianna Huffington.

    Such a faux pas! Everyone knows Huffington and Ignatius went to Cambridge, Doug, not Oxford. (By “everyone”, I of course mean anyone dorky enough to look it up on Wikipedia.)

    .

  32. 32.

    El Cid

    February 10, 2011 at 4:09 pm

    Please someone save an above comment from moderation. I think it was triggered because I mentioned the name of a game of chance involving playing cards.

  33. 33.

    matoko_chan

    February 10, 2011 at 4:10 pm

    tomorrow is friday.
    the Day of Prayer, where all muslims go to mosque.
    it will be a big day.

  34. 34.

    Poopyman

    February 10, 2011 at 4:12 pm

    Time for the poo to hit the fan. IOW, the army is going to have something to say very soon.

  35. 35.

    freelancer

    February 10, 2011 at 4:13 pm

    @matoko_chan:

    tomorrow is friday.
    the Day of Prayer, where all muslims go to mosque.
    it will be a big day.

    Thank you, Imam Obvious.

  36. 36.

    Parallel 5ths (Jewish Steel)

    February 10, 2011 at 4:14 pm

    Ooh. that is not a happy gathering.

  37. 37.

    R-Jud

    February 10, 2011 at 4:14 pm

    @fasteddie9318: Interesting. Thanks.

  38. 38.

    Alex S.

    February 10, 2011 at 4:14 pm

    Not sure what he just said… He might have spoken with history in mind. He doesn’t want to be seen as the dictator he is, but as just another shepherd of this new movement.

  39. 39.

    joes527

    February 10, 2011 at 4:14 pm

    In all seriousness, I get a sickening deja-vu from the absolute focus on ousting Mubarak as the single non-negotiable demand.

    It reminds me of the whole Saddam Hussein (who was also a certifiably bad man) must go drumbeat just a few years ago.

    That hasn’t turned out so well. (just sayin’)

  40. 40.

    Poopyman

    February 10, 2011 at 4:20 pm

    Remember that this dude has about $70B squirreled away, and both he and the protesters are very aware of that. And yet he says this? (Al Jaz)

    11:05pm: He’s not going anywhere soon. The volume in Tahrir Square has just ramped up in anger. the carnival atmosphere is changing very, very quickly.
    __
    I have exhausted my life defending the homeland and its security. I went to war, I lived through occupation and I lived through teh liberation of Sinai. I have faced death on many occasion.
    __
    11:03pm: Mubarak says the priority is to “restore confidence to our nation”.
    __
    Egypt is braving hard times, where we cannot tolerate these circumstances to continue. Our economy has suffered losses and damages – and day by day it will end up where the youth, who are calling for more reform will be the first victims.
    __
    Is that a threat?
    __
    11:00pm: He says the current moment “is not related to my personality”.
    __
    All Egyptians are in the same trench and we should continue engaging in our national dialogue we started, without enmity, to restore confience to our economy, peace and stability to our citizens and to restore the normal way of life to the Egyptian street.

  41. 41.

    bloopbleep

    February 10, 2011 at 4:20 pm

    Per a poll on the Egyptian uprising commissioned by the Washington Institute on Near East Policy:

    “This 
is
 not 
an 
Islamic 
uprising. 
The 
Muslim 
Brotherhood 
is 
”approved”
by
 just 
15%, 
and 
its 
leaders 
get
 barely 1%
 in
 a 
presidential 
straw
 vote. 
Asked 
to
 pick
 national
 priorities, 
just
 12% 
choose 
shariah 
over
 national 
power, democracy,
or
 economic 
development. 
Asked
 to 
explain
 the 
uprising, 
economic
 conditions,
corruption,
and unemployment 
(30‐40% 
each) 
far
 outpace 
”regime
 not 
Islamic 
enough” 
(7%).

    Surprisingly, 
asked 
two
 different 
ways
 about 
the
 peace 
treaty 
with 
Israel,
 more
 support
 it 
(37%)
 than
 oppose it 
(22%). 
Only 
18% 
approve
 of
 either 
Hamas 
or 
Iran. 
And 
a
 mere 
5% 
say 
the 
uprising
 occurred 
because
 the regime 
is 
”too
 pro-Israel.””

    Americans in general love to spout off opinions about subjects they know nothing about. Hence, irrational fear of possible Islamic takeovers (Oklahoma, anyone?), as well as the overwhelming (and annoying) need for Americans to make everything about the United States of Jesus’ Merica. They only want takeovers if they involve Christ, Guns, and Sodomy.

  42. 42.

    catclub

    February 10, 2011 at 4:26 pm

    @shortstop: “Like Arlen Specter but with violence.”

    You win the internets today.

    Like Joe Lieberman, but with principles.

    Like John McCain, but sane.

  43. 43.

    Comrade Colette Collaboratrice

    February 10, 2011 at 4:29 pm

    Al Jazeera English live stream, as @cjdavis says, seems to have the best instant coverage.

    Their commenter a second ago was pointing out that lots of people don’t have cable so they rely on Egyptian State TV, which is not showing the angry people in Tahrir Square and elsewhere. They’re clearly still under government control and continuing the govt campaign to win back the Egyptian people. (And good luck with that, eh.)

  44. 44.

    Calouste

    February 10, 2011 at 4:32 pm

    He’s really daring the protestors to storm the palace and throw him out, isn’t he? I doubt anyone is convinced that he is really going to step down come september.

    ETA: Already happening according to the Guardian:
    “There is a feeling that people want to get on the move now. I can hear this chant: “We’ll go to the palace and tear him out.”
    ”
    and the BBC:
    Journalist Lina Wardani tells the BBC: “Thousands of angry Egyptians are moving now towards the presidential palace.”

  45. 45.

    matoko_chan

    February 10, 2011 at 4:33 pm

    @El Cid: missed u on the defense against proselytization thread.
    :)
    i think ive had a break through.
    Christians believe their faith commands them to proselytize. Muslims believe their faith commands them to resist proselytization.
    See? Westernstyle/judeochristian free speech is incompatible with defense against proselytization encoded in shariah law.
    its like an irresistable force meeting an immoveable object.

    tais tois, imbecile you already showed your ass the other day.

  46. 46.

    Comrade Colette Collaboratrice

    February 10, 2011 at 4:34 pm

    Al J’s guy in Tahrir Sq is now reporting that a huge, angry crowd is heading out of the square and toward the State TV building.

  47. 47.

    Poopyman

    February 10, 2011 at 4:35 pm

    Via The Guardian, Cairo is not happy:

    9.29pm GMT: My colleague Matt Wells has just spoken to Jack Shenker in Tahrir Square, where the mood is one of fury.
    __
    Jack says the people were huddled around radios listening to the speech in silence. But once it became clear that Mubarak intended to stay on, the mood changed to anger.
    __
    At one point Mubarak made a reference to being a young man and understanding the young men of Egypt – basically the people who are here – and at that moment the whole square erupted in anger. At that point, the whole square exploded in anger. The way that Mubarak is comparing himself to the people on the ground infuriated them.
    __
    And when it became clear that the that Mubarak intended to stay on until September, the square shook with fury. “We are not going until he goes,” they chanted.
    __
    There is real anger and real fury and people are not quite sure in which direction to channel it. As I speak to you now, one man is holding a banner next to me which says: “Freedom or I die here.” Tears are running down some people’s faces. They really thought he was going to go.
    __
    There is a feeling that people want to get on the move now. I can hear this chant: “We’ll go to the palace and tear him out.”

  48. 48.

    JGabriel

    February 10, 2011 at 4:40 pm

    Suleiman just called for the youth to not watch “cable news”, saying it’s only aim is sedition.

    This is gonna get uglier before it’s over.

    .

  49. 49.

    hilts

    February 10, 2011 at 4:41 pm

    Doug,

    You need to check MSNBC more often for the latest on Mubarak

    NBC News: Egypt’s Mubarak to step down
    http://bltwy.msnbc.msn.com/politics/nbc-news-egypts-mubarak-to-step-down-1681060.story

    “Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak is to step down, two sources told NBC News on Thursday.”

  50. 50.

    Poopyman

    February 10, 2011 at 4:42 pm

    Oh, look! This’ll calm things down toot sweety:

    9.35pm GMT: Vice president Omar Suleiman now speaking – and like Mubarak he’s not giving much away.
    __
    He [Mubarak] is responsible for the national action in order to preserve stability of Egypt … and to repel the dangers against the people and to return to normal.
    __
    I call to the young people of Egypt: go back to your houses, go back to your work … do not listen to the satellite stations that have no objective other than to divide Egypt.

    That’ll work, dude.

  51. 51.

    Calouste

    February 10, 2011 at 4:44 pm

    Mubarak: “I will not be separated from this soil until I am buried underneath it.”

    The man should talk to Chris Lee about how quick you can go from pretending to be a divorced lobbyist to actually being one.

  52. 52.

    gbear

    February 10, 2011 at 4:46 pm

    @R-Jud: I think that’s been the chant for the last two weeks.

    I wish I was somewhere where I could be watching Ad Jazeera right now.

  53. 53.

    shortstop

    February 10, 2011 at 4:51 pm

    @Calouste: Awesome.

  54. 54.

    Alex S.

    February 10, 2011 at 4:51 pm

    Mubarack Hosni Obama! ! ! ! (had to do this, sorry)

  55. 55.

    Agoraphobic Kleptomaniac

    February 10, 2011 at 4:53 pm

    He dug in. Everything he said was future tense, he would overseen changes to the constitution, he would review those changes, and he would make sure it was fair.

    Even in a different language it was easy to hear the spin.

  56. 56.

    El Cid

    February 10, 2011 at 4:55 pm

    To escape moderation:
    ______________________
    ‘And the youth are cool too, and I gave them dialogues to feel like our military regime will be a lot better now. I really looked close at the proposed Constitutional amendments by the commission I created, and so I’m going to think about changing 6 of those amendments. This might happen later, if I think it’s a good idea.

    ‘There will be a peaceful transition of power, to someone or else, and we’ll think about who we’ll let run. We might even allow opposition parties. The big thing is streamlining how candidates are picked. And I’m totally committed to stopping my fake elections. We’ll even put judges into the process.

    ‘My VP/Torturer/Intel Chief will help restore confidence in our government and economy and international reputation.

    ‘Again, I say, it was a terrible thing for all those who died, and our prosecutor will check into it.

    ‘OUR process of improvement we’re going through now will never be reversed! You guys have taught me so much!

    ‘But seriously, knock it off. Go home. You’re hurting Egypt. Business is down. There’s a national dialogue—what more do you people want? I said I’d listen to this dialogue!

    ‘You know, I was young like you too. I learned in the military how to be awesome. I kicked ass. I hoisted our flag over Sinai. You know I’m all about peace and development.

    ‘Me? I never sought power for personal reasons. (That several tens of billions of dollars I got? I’m just really good at games of chance.) Never.

    ‘The will of the people cannot be denied! Unless I deny it! Ain’t nobody pushing me us around! We ain’t no damn puppet from some damn for’n power! How could anyone think that?

    ‘Egypt is awesome. We kick ass. It’s our pride that sent me here. Our heroic spirit will live on, in the sense that you people are going to go back home and relax because I got this.’

  57. 57.

    R-Jud

    February 10, 2011 at 5:00 pm

    @El Cid: Perfect.

    2156: Robert Danin from the Council of Foreign Relations in Washington tells the BBC World Service: “It seems to me that behind the scenes there must be some sort of power play taking place between the military and the president.”

    No kidding.

  58. 58.

    Elizabelle

    February 10, 2011 at 5:00 pm

    The man won’t leave before his destined meeting with a lightpost.

    Tragedy that he is likely to take a lot of young Egyptians with him.

  59. 59.

    Ash Can

    February 10, 2011 at 5:00 pm

    @hilts: That’s the problem. Ditch those guys and get Al Jazeera’s English-language live stream on your computer, if at all possible. They’re the ones who know what’s going on.

  60. 60.

    Poopyman

    February 10, 2011 at 5:02 pm

    11:42pm: John Bradley, author of Inside Egypt: The Land Of The Pharoahs On The Brink Of A Revolution, tells us: “The revolution starts tomorrow. We will see unprecedented numbers of Egyptians on the streets.”

    Uh, dude, I don’t think they’re waiting for tomorrow:

    11:50pm: Among the chants heard in Tahrir Square:
    __
    We’re off to the presidential palace. We’re going as millions of martyrs.

    ETA: Yes, this is from the Al Jazeera live blog. Park on it.

  61. 61.

    El Cid

    February 10, 2011 at 5:04 pm

    @matoko_chan: Just go the fuck away. I showed that you were completely a dimwitted babbler. No, I take that back, that’s vanity. You again revealed yourself as a dimwitted babbler.

  62. 62.

    Comrade Colette Collaboratrice

    February 10, 2011 at 5:08 pm

    AJ chyron: “Head of Egypt’s ruling party says that the right thing for Mubarak to do is to step aside.” “Armed Forces have stepped in to safeguard the country.”

    What the hell does that mean? Sounds like things are changing faster than anyone can keep up with right now.

    Also, Suleiman’s speech was one of the most condescending, arrogant, tone-deaf things I’ve ever seen come out of a political figure’s face.

    On the off chance that any BJers are here for language lessons: unsurprisingly, Matoko’s French is as fried as her English. There have been grammar or spelling errors, or both, every time she’s tried it.

  63. 63.

    eemom

    February 10, 2011 at 5:16 pm

    @El Cid:

    excellent summation. That’s exactly what he said. Un-fucking-believable.

    Especially, as one of the commenters on the broadcast noted, after allowing the rumors to fly that he WAS going to step down.

    Disappointing the people and angering them is bad enough — but jerking them around to boot? Anything could happen now.

  64. 64.

    Poopyman

    February 10, 2011 at 5:18 pm

    @Comrade Colette Collaboratrice: Revolutions are usually chaotic, and Egypt has been walking the knife’s edge the past couple of weeks. I think Mubarak and Suleiman have pushed the country off the edge.

    And Re MC: “Wallah” is all you need to know about her French.

  65. 65.

    El Cid

    February 10, 2011 at 5:21 pm

    @Comrade Colette Collaboratrice: You are clearly on the side of the Crusades. You have inherited this because all behavior has a biological basis. Protestantism is stupid.

  66. 66.

    Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)

    February 10, 2011 at 5:24 pm

    @Poopyman: In fairness to matoko, on this particular issue, I think she’s trying to say Wallah (by Allah!) and not voila. Arabic, not French. I will not defend anything else she says :).

  67. 67.

    joe from Lowell

    February 10, 2011 at 5:28 pm

    @shortstop:

    Like Arlen Specter but with violence.

    Awesome.

    @El Cid:

    Awesome.

    @Calouste:

    The man should talk to Chris Lee about how quick you can go from pretending to be a divorced lobbyist to actually being one.

    Awesome.

  68. 68.

    Comrade Colette Collaboratrice

    February 10, 2011 at 5:32 pm

    @El Cid: Thank you. My entire life makes so much more sense to me now. ;-)

    My wingnut brother loved saying “Wallah!” until I pointed out the Arabic meaning. Since he hates Arabs nearly as much as he hates the French, he dropped that bit of his vocabulary pronto. Yeesh, I can’t believe we’re related.

  69. 69.

    eemom

    February 10, 2011 at 5:38 pm

    just heard an AJE commentator say of Mubarak, “Nobody knows what he is thinking. He must have gone totally senile and crazy.”

    Dunno why there isn’t more discussion on THIS thread — this is some huge shit going down, and folks are upstairs prattling about Donald Trump and Leagues of Gentlemen.

  70. 70.

    Poopyman

    February 10, 2011 at 5:49 pm

    @eemom: I’m still here, for a while, and in reply to that AJE commentator I’d say that if I were a-dictator-president that wanted to leave a half-decent legacy, I’d hand over power to my new VP, who used to be head of the state’s security apparatus. Then he could take the heat for the shit he’d bring down.

    10.33pm GMT: Egypt’s ambassador to the US, Sameh Shoukry, confirms that Hosni Mubarak has transferred all powers of the president to vice president Omar Suleiman.
    __
    In response to questions from CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, Shoukry said that Mubarak was “the de jure president” and that Suleiman was now the “de facto president”. “I’m getting this from the vice president,” Shoukry said.
    __
    “He [vice president Suleiman] is now undertaking all the authority of the presidency under the constitution,” Shoukry.
    __
    Was Mubarak now in effect powerless? “That is certainly an interpretation you can make … he remains the de jure head of state,” said Shoukry.
    __
    Asked in Mubarak could reclaim the full powers of the presidency at a later date, Shoukry said: “That’s a technical constitutional issue that I unable to speak to.”

  71. 71.

    Sockpuppet

    February 10, 2011 at 5:49 pm

    @eemom:

    1. This blog’s crowd isn’t particularly internationally geared, and therefore a bit lost on the topic.

    2. What is there to say? Literally anything is possible now. Mubarak got his family out of the country, he’s old, there’s nobody within the regime really compelling him to stand down, and he seems to be willing to die (as he sees it) for his country. And either the army or the protesters might just have to take him up on that last point.

  72. 72.

    JGabriel

    February 10, 2011 at 5:50 pm

    eemom:

    Dunno why there isn’t more discussion on THIS thread …

    I think most of us don’t know what to say at this point. We all know something will probably happen after religious services tomorrow afternoon, and, until then, we’re kind of in a waiting period. Keep in mind that there’s not much happening in Egypt right now, where it’s about 1:00 am local time.

    .

  73. 73.

    shortstop

    February 10, 2011 at 5:53 pm

    @JGabriel: This.

  74. 74.

    Jay in Oregon

    February 10, 2011 at 6:32 pm

    Overheard on Twitter:

    Mubarak: “I will not leave Egypt until I die.” Egypt: “WE CAN TOTALLY HELP YOU WITH THAT.”

  75. 75.

    matoko_chan

    February 10, 2011 at 6:38 pm

    @Poopyman: man…..wallah isnt french.
    its colloquial arabic.
    i wudnt be so mean if y’all wernt so STUPID.
    @El Cid: nope, sry el Campeador…. all you showed is that what really bugs you is when i talk about EGT and the evolutionary superiority of al-Islam and the anti-intellectualism of the protestant tradition.
    I See you.
    I see your soft parts and know where to twist my blade naow.
    Don’t you know better than to show fear in front of a feral?
    i think you just might be a Spencer/Malkin islamophobe.
    :)

  76. 76.

    eemom

    February 10, 2011 at 6:39 pm

    good heavens. Say nothing because there is nothing to say??

    What color is the sky in y’all’s blogosphere?

  77. 77.

    shortstop

    February 10, 2011 at 6:45 pm

    eemom: Feel free to contribute some salient points of your own. So far all you’ve done is complain about others not doing so.

  78. 78.

    matoko_chan

    February 10, 2011 at 6:45 pm

    @JGabriel: some analysts think mubarak was trying to bait the protestors into a riot so he could have an excuse to crush them….a setup to draw a lot of people into the square.
    what mubarak relly needs is a good ol’ islamic revolution to crush.
    but the Brothers are too savvy for that.
    right naow, mubarak, America, and the generals are going for the “mubarak needs to oversee a peaceful transition” theme. Hillary even said that….that Mubarak should stay.
    the egyptian people and the rest of the army are on the other side.
    tomorrow should be interesting.

  79. 79.

    matoko_chan

    February 10, 2011 at 6:52 pm

    pardon…minor correction.
    i think you just might be a garden variety Spencer/Malkin islamophobe.
    :)

  80. 80.

    eemom

    February 10, 2011 at 6:54 pm

    @shortstop:

    Actually, I submitted my humble observations at 63 and 69. I don’t pretend to be an expert on the matter.

    And here I thought you were one of the ones who didn’t flunk reading comprehension.

  81. 81.

    shortstop

    February 10, 2011 at 7:06 pm

    @eemom: Stay calm. I’m not riding you — just wondering why you’re riding us. Your “anything could happen now” of #63 is pretty much what we’re all thinking; doesn’t seem a lot of point in our repeating that. #69 is the lecture. What are you asking us to do? Chime in with concern and disbelief? We are all feeling it.

  82. 82.

    fasteddie9318

    February 10, 2011 at 7:07 pm

    Mark Lynch at Foreign Policy suggests that Mubarak called an audible after the military had decided it was time for him to go, and the military is now scrambling to formulate a response. I don’t buy that for a second, sorry. The military had two choices: remove Mubarak and placate the protesters, but replace him with Sorour as per the constitution, or have Mubarak remain but promise to delegate his authority to Suleiman. Sorour is not a military man and may have some democratic leanings, and my feeling is that the military decided they couldn’t take a chance elevating him even temporarily. This way the protesters are still angry (and, bonus, maybe now they’ll do something to enable the army to justify a severe crackdown which would be icing on the cake), but at least the military is still firmly in control.

  83. 83.

    mclaren

    February 10, 2011 at 8:36 pm

    Looks like you wrote too quickly, Doug. Mubarak ain’t leavin’ and now the ball’s in the Egyptian miliary’s court.

    They have 3 options: let the demonstrators storm the presidential palace, fire on the demonstrators (which the Egyptian military seems unwilling to do), or stage their own coup and put one of their own in Mubarak’s place. Every Egyptian leader since WW II has been an army officer, so that’s a real possibility.

    Going to be an interest next few hours in Egypt. Let’s hope for the best.

  84. 84.

    eemom

    February 10, 2011 at 9:07 pm

    @fasteddie9318:

    that’s kind of what I had in mind. Thank you.

    I’ve also heard that there may not be unanimity among “the military,” which would make sense.

    Another interesting point is that Leon Panetta himself publicly acknowledged today that Mubarak was likely to step down, and he presumably would never have done that if they didn’t have what they believed to be very credible intelligence that it was true. Which means that either (1) our “intelligence” seriously sucks, or (2) it was a deliberately disseminated falsehood, or
    (3) something actually did change at the last minute.

  85. 85.

    Stillwater

    February 10, 2011 at 9:09 pm

    @mclaren: Or the military forces out Mubs, and permits free elections. I mean, look, if the military wanted to install a new guy, wouldn’t they have done it by now? I think they want to thread the needle between a pro-Islam, populist civilian government while retaining the big sloppy checks from the US for performing their required military role.

  86. 86.

    Hob

    February 10, 2011 at 9:38 pm

    @matoko_chan: And yet you still can’t speak French for shit. There’s no S in “toi”, and “tais-toi” should have a hyphen. Have you ever admitted an error of any kind here?

  87. 87.

    El Cid

    February 10, 2011 at 11:50 pm

    @matoko_chan: You’re a moron. Every time someone points out you’re a babbling idiot, you think you’ve scored a victory point.

    It’s okay, because as a Special Olympics participant in the Balloon Juice commentary section, you know that no matter who wins, everyone’s a winner. What’s important is that you keep your courage when all else around you involves grammatical and lexical patterns. That can stress a “special” participant such as yourself.

    If you had half a thimble full of worthwhile shit to say about Islam or Muslim movements or anything, that would be one thing. But you’re completely and utterly inane and worthless in talking about anything related to Islam, much less the Middle East.

    Fuck, no one who knows anyone who actually has a fucking clue about Islam and the Muslim world would listen to your Tinkertoy sputterings. It’s as if you think that people are too stupid to be able to read for free on the interwebz Muslims and Arabs and Persians and so forth writers and thinkers who really do know stuff.

    On the other hand, if you think that analysis of the Muslim world includes repeating a few catch phrases (‘the Muslim Brotherhood is too clever’), then, there you go. You have to say things like that, because you don’t know anything else.

    If you consider yourself some sort of thinker about Islam and the Muslim world, wake the fuck up. This isn’t 7th century feudalism where any nutbar who wanders into town begging for food and drink and can claim to the impressionable locals that she is a knowledgeable scholar and philosopher.

    If anyone here is curious about Islam, or wants to convert, or wants to join the Muslim Brotherhood, or whatever — they don’t need you. See, such a person would be seeking “value added”, not “drain plugged up”.

    Hell, you’re too stupid to even know the first thing about the personage behind El Cid — that’s As-Sayyid to you. Why the fuck you might think “Campeador” would bother somebody already using the fucking name is more snake-handling nonsense.

    God-damn, if you’re going to think that it’s provocation to repeat the name I’m already using, at least get someone to read to you the history behind the character.

    Hint: he’s not a Crusader, he’s not a Christian warrior, he’s not an enemy of the Moors.

    But the Protestants are totally going to kick Islam’s ass.

    Look at the schedule: Islam got a bye against Shinto. Sure, you were doing well in the Equatorial leagues, but you’re going to face the Hindus again. A while back you could consistently bet on a victory over them, but these days it’s completely up in the air.

    The Protestants have had a tough season all along, barely being able to pull out small local victories in the Post-Columbian League against the Catholics. But we still maintain

    In the Pacific conference, we barely avoided a serious technical foul for imperialist holding when we managed to get the Maori team to accept a formal apology from the non-offensive coordinator.

    We still have our offense led by the Industrial Revolution, though a dispute over payments has gotten us right up to the pay cap. On offense Islam is split between their Sunni and Shi’a game, and a number of times your entire special team has broken down over which program to follow.

    You still haven’t even worked out a good strategy to counter the Judaism slow expansion offense. So far your best has been to push them back out of their upside penetration, but they manage to wall off your attempts to control the field, and your really big bench runners are either on restriction or haven’t yet been able to get the proper equipment to even get in the game.

    We don’t anticipate problems going up a second time against Buddhists, because their game is pretty much always to try and wait us out. We’d probably make out better by going up against the Sikhs, since their team rules require them the game plans of their 10 earliest coaches.

  88. 88.

    matoko_chan

    February 11, 2011 at 9:43 am

    But the Protestants are totally going to kick Islam’s ass.

    lawl.
    not according to PEW and John Maynard-Smith.
    this is who you are. a garden variety islamophobe, a christian triumphalist and a western culture chauvinist……
    it makes you furious, doesnt it?
    Protestanism is anti-intellectual and wahdat al wujud is congruent with Social Brain Hypothesis.
    that is what infuriates you.
    al-Islam evolved from judaism and christianity, and is evolutionarily superior.
    that is what defense against proselytization is all about.
    in football terminolgy, Islam has an impenetrable defense against xianity’s best play.
    and even worse for you, muslims CAN proselytize in America, the last bulwark of protestant thought, home of creationists and racists and bookburners, because of freedom of speech.
    Look at the empirical data, el Campeador (i just like the sound, sry).
    al-Islam just kicked Americas big fat white judeoxian ass in Iraq and A-stan.

    im not recruiting for the Brothers. im admiring their evolution.
    im an otaku of evolution, did you know?

    2330 GMT: Many sources, including CNN, are speculating that Mubarak did not step down because he may want to lure the protesters into committing acts of violence so he can then crackdown upon them.

    the MB were once fiery and violent…now they are playing a long game, and playing it very, very well.

  89. 89.

    matoko_chan

    February 11, 2011 at 10:04 am

    @El Cid:

    If anyone here is curious about Islam, or wants to convert, or wants to join the Muslim Brotherhood, or whatever

    you are confused Old Man. Sufis are forbidden to discuss the sirr of Sufism. i dont proselytize.

    yours is better for you, mine is better for me, and all paths….are the One Path.

    how many times must i quote the Muhyyidin?

    “Beware of confining yourself to a particular belief and denying all else, for much good would elude you—indeed, the knowledge of reality would elude you. Be in yourself a matter for all forms of belief, for God is too vast and tremendous to be restricted to one belief rather than another.”

    Since you seem interested…..i follow mevlevi school but my adab is Zunnun

    Common people repent from their sins, the Sufi repent from ignorance. –Zunnun

  90. 90.

    matoko_chan

    February 11, 2011 at 10:45 am

    hmm…..the Dreaded Scroll Off.
    ill just bookmark this so i can school el Campeador another time.
    :)
    before he meets up with the cruel selection gradient of my Black Sun cartoon safe.
    hes actually pretty fun though…..

    you mad, el Cid?
    hahahahaha

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