Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

This fight is for everything.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

No Justins, No Peace

Republicans don’t trust women.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” is supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

T R E 4 5 O N

In after Baud. Damn.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

The problem people have with Biden’s age is the color of the VPs skin.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

No one could have predicted…

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

We still have time to mess this up!

I was confident that someone would point it out and thought why not me.

Books are my comfort food!

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

I am pretty sure Katy Tur wasn’t always such a bootlicking sycophant.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Mubarak Out- This Time For Reals

Reader Interactions

185Comments

  6. 6.

    ruemara

    I’m damn happy. I think the military are in charge to dull the impact of Suleiman being president. Don’t forget, this is the Egyptian Cheney. I’d take a military that is moving toward the goal of elections being held in 60 days or so, than a known torturer who was the handpicked puppetsuccessor of the last 30 year douchebag.

  7. 7.

    Dave

    The military is the only respected State institution in Egypt. Now it’s up to them to follow through. Hopefully the extensive contacts with our military officers will pay off with a respect for civilian control.

  9. 9.

    Villago Delenda Est

    From the previous thread:

    I’m watching the CNN coverage of millions of people demanding that Mubarak step down, and I keep coming back to “Why does he want to remain in power?” He’s fabulously rich, he could easily make a deal with some country to move there with all his wealth and live out the end of his days, why not do it?

    Monty Burns syndrome.

    “I’d give it all up…for just a little bit more…”

  11. 11.

    Omnes Omnibus

    This is a good thing. I hope that the Egyptian people have a chance to build a good government and that this does not simply result in a “meet the new boss” scenario.

  12. 12.

    PaulW

    I for one welcome our insect overlords.

    Seriously. This is great. I’m flashing back to the fall of the Berlin Wall, that’s how huge this is.

  14. 14.

    Violet

    This is amazing to watch. Just amazing. I so hope things turn out really well for the Egyptian people. They have been so strong and determined. Inspiring.

  16. 16.

    Elvis Elvisberg

    It looks like V-E day in NYC or Paris out there. All the people in Tahrir Square were key engineers of their own liberation. It’s an amazing, amazing scene.

    As for cheering the military, the goal of the protests was to get Mubarak to go. People have a lot of respect for the military there (was it in some measure because they have trained with the US? [EDITED TO ADD: because that contributed to their professionalism, not ’cause everyone loves everything that the US touches.] I would love to think so, but hell if I know). The assumption here, that I have, and I assume the protesters do too, is that the previously planned elections will go forward, in September or sooner.

  17. 17.

    Liberal Sandlapper

    After yesterday, I’m just waiting for Mubarak to come back on the air and say “psych!”

  22. 22.

    Cat Lady

    @Elvis Elvisberg:

    NPR the other day mentioned that some extremely significant percentage of Egyptians have served or have family currently serving in the military, from every walk of life. I want to say north of 60%, and they’re very proud of their military who are very professional and respected.

  24. 24.

    scav

    Strange weird in that it’s good for once. Scary in that I don’t want to think of things that can go wrong, but it has gone right sometimes in the past and can go right again. Velvet Revolution, please, that scenario.

  25. 25.

    Amir_Khalid

    Mubarak handed power to the military, rather than the Speaker of Parliament. I’d wait to call it a victory for the people until we see what the military does. I’d like to see them make some moves toward freeing up Egyptian society and politics, as well as setting a timetable for Presidential and Parliamentary elections so they can hand power back to the civilians ASAP.

  26. 26.

    Poopyman

    @Elvis Elvisberg: Cheering the military = working the refs. It helps going into negotiations for your “opponent” to think that you respect him. I think in this case the military certainly is respected by the people, and so far it looks like they’ve bent over backwards to keep it so.

  29. 29.

    singfoom

    Congratulations to the people of Egypt for directing their own destiny. They showed real courage in the face of pressure.

    So, can we march on Washington D.C. and occupy the national mall until corporations are no longer considered people and Citizens United is overturned so political power is returned to people and not corporations here?

  30. 30.

    Elisabeth

    FWIW, today is “Islamic Revolution’s Victory Day” in Iran which marks the end of it’s revolution. Just an interesting contrast/coincidence.

  32. 32.

    Woodrow "asim" Jarvis Hill

    People have a lot of respect for the military there (was it in some measure because they have trained with the US?

    The respect for the military there goes much father back than that, back to the early 20th century in fact. I only know the brief outlines of the story, but I encourage folks to poke around the ‘net, as I’ve seen some excellent stories on this exact topic over the last few weeks.

  33. 33.

    Bulworth

    Can’t wait for Glenn Beck’s chalkboards tonight.

    Obviously Code Pink and the Islam caliphate have conspired to take down Our Faithful Ally.

  38. 38.

    The Dangerman

    Can you imagine this happening under a President McCain/Palin? This required adults to basically stay the hell out of it. Well done Egypt.

  39. 39.

    Violet

    Headline at RedState: “Now at CPAC.” Not even a mention on the site of Mubarak stepping down. Just because a Republican wasn’t in charge? Doesn’t that say a lot?

  40. 40.

    JGabriel

    Congratulations to the Egyptian people! This is an immense and impressive achievement, the popular and mostly peaceful overthrow of a 30 year dictatorship.

    .

  41. 41.

    Villago Delenda Est

    It’s way too early to determine that “the people have won” in Egypt.

    Do not forget: the Egyptian military, led by some officers named Nasser, Sadat, and Mubarak, overthrew the King a bit over a half century ago.

    IF the Egyptian military is following the Turkish example (intervening in politics when the vision of Ataturk was endangered, and the Constitution imperiled) then it’s good. If they install another strongman like Nasser, Sadat or Mubarak, then the process is not complete.

  42. 42.

    J.W. Hamner

    It’s always heartening to see the power of peaceful protest, but I’ll wait until we have actual democratic reforms before I break out the champagne.

  46. 46.

    BGinCHI

    On CNN, Wulf Blitzer immediately turns to the horse race:

    Which Middle East nation will be next?

    Watch for David Gregory to ask Egypt if it will run for President.

  47. 47.

    Elvis Elvisberg

    @Cat Lady:

    some extremely significant percentage of Egyptians have served or have family currently serving in the military, from every walk of life. I want to say north of 60%,

    Interesting, Cat Lady, thanks for that, I didn’t know that factoid.

    @Poopyman: I think there’s more to it than working the refs. The military could have ended all this by going Tiananmen two weeks ago. They told Mubarak– and the public– that they would never. And they weren’t angels, but they absolutely lived up to that.

    Oh jeez, this Egyptian dude on AJE is saying “the intellectuals wanted to negotiate to amend the constitution. This was not the goal of the people.” Yesterday’s moderates are tomorrow’s collaborators. This could go pear-shaped, for sure. But… it might not. And this is an incredible moment regardless.

  49. 49.

    bkny

    an astonishing outcome for the egyptian people! their determination to carry this thru is remarkable and an inspiration to people across the globe.

    congratulations to them!

  51. 51.

    Lol

    This is good news for John McCain, right?

    I don’t think y’all understand what a crippling blow this is to the feckless and waffling Obama pan-Egypt national policy of socialismistic determinism. In short, Obama’s failure to attack Iran directly led to this unfortunate circumstance.

  52. 52.

    JGabriel

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    IF the Egyptian military is following the Turkish example (intervening in politics when the vision of Ataturk was endangered, and the Constitution imperiled) then it’s good. If they install another strongman like Nasser, Sadat or Mubarak, then the process is not complete.

    THIS. I’m hoping for a Turkish style neutrality, guaranteeing stability and secularity — however, there’s no guarantee, yet, that the military takeover won’t turn into a continuance of strongman governance.

    But that’s a concern for tomorrow, or Monday. For tonight: Celebrate!

    .

  53. 53.

    Suck It Up!

    @Violet:

    hmmm.. I missed that. One of the reporters from Egypt said he came across some protesters who said they wanted more from Obama and more from their allies outside of their borders. I thought to myself: “this is not Obama’s to lead, it is theirs and they got it without major intervention from the US. This is the way it should happen.”

  54. 54.

    El Cid

    God-damn. Thunder is heard throughout the Middle East.

    Look, it may be the figure-head leaving. Egypt has been a military tyranny.

    But still, Mubarak was the head of both the country and the military. Yes, the military pushed him out when he was a cause of greater instability.

    No one, however, will mistake that that was a choice either forced upon the military leadership (and I assume without any real evidence that the leadership is divided between various individuals or groups) or gifted to the military.

    And by nothing more than peaceful (overwhelmingly, not absolutely) mass protest. Mass refusal. With an extraordinary level unity among vastly different groups and interests, and a truly impressive degree of high-minded, easily admirable goals.

    Even the Saudis were shitting their pants. Reportedly (Times of London) from multiple sources held that King Abdullah demanded Mubarak be backed by Washington and that if the US threatened to cut Egypt’s military funding (a bizarrely unlikely fear) then he would make up the difference.

    (At a mere $1.5 billion a year in direct aid, that’s pocket change to the Saudis.)

    One can hope that the military will prefer to be the basic power of the regime, and maintain nearly all of their vast economic powers (industries in both government and civilian sectors), while preferring to let an actually elected government handle the details.

    Which doesn’t mean they would completely succeed at that, or that divisions (and rivalries) wouldn’t matter more and more over time.

    But it is a possibility.

  55. 55.

    Dennis SGMM

    I’m saving the champagne until the military lifts the emergency law. The sooner they do it, the better the future looks for Egypt.

  56. 56.

    BGinCHI

    Current World Net Daily headline:

    Obama, Soros create ‘Palestine’
    Invest in Arab ‘country’ that lacks recognition

    Assholes.

  57. 57.

    Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther

    I am just beside myself! Very worried about the army now being in charge, and yet just overcome with joy and tears over this astonishing event.

    When you consider how brutalized the Egyptian people have been over the years, it’s all the more stunning that they have managed to keep this uprising peaceful, except when set upon by thugs. Just – overwhelming.

    If you’ve been watching on Al-Jazeera, I strongly recommend that you thank them by asking your cable company to carry AJE: http://english.aljazeera.net/demandaljazeera/ Put your zip code in the blue box to send an email.

    And even if you don’t watch cable? The American media landscape will be much improved if Al-Jazeera is brought into the discussion – so send an email anyway!

  58. 58.

    Violet

    Wow. Someone on MSNBC just said today in history is the day that Nelson Mandela was freed from prison. Talk about historic.

  59. 59.

    Bulworth

    Headline at RedState: “Now at CPAC.” Not even a mention on the site of Mubarak stepping down. Just because a Republican wasn’t in charge? Doesn’t that say a lot?

    Yeah, but don’t you see? This whole Egypt Caliphate thing was an attempt by our muslim president to divert attention from the CPAC.

  61. 61.

    Suck It Up!

    @singfoom:

    “So, can we march on Washington D.C. and occupy the national mall until corporations are no longer considered people and Citizens United is overturned so political power is returned to people and not corporations here?”

    I don’t think we can sustain that protest for as long as the Egyptians did.

  63. 63.

    matoko_chan

    @Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther: me too!
    it is a glorious, splendid moment.
    history in realtime.
    and this is worrying for tyrants everywhere.
    the Tyrant Khamenei suppressed the video feed so the Green Wave doesnt get ideas, after initally paying lipservice to the egyptian peoples cause.
    ;)
    How do you feel about Israel’s response?

  65. 65.

    scav

    @BGinCHI: well, yeah, to some it’s not democracy unless “we” impose it and get to choose the leaders. Have to admit to my shame, I keep waiting for the vuvuzelas — did I just hear actual ululation? !

  66. 66.

    zzyzx

    Rush’s take yesterday was all Muslim Brotherhood. The best part was him mocking the head of the intelligence services for giving a briefing that said that the Muslim Brotherhood was actually a fairly secular group in Egypt.

    Maybe it’s false but the counter-argument seemed [1] to be solely, “They’re called the ‘Muslim Brotherhood!'”

    [1] Seemed because Limbaugh didn’t actually present an argument, he just mocked the statements.

  68. 68.

    Violet

    I wonder what the wingnut talk show folks are going to do with this situation today. Maybe they’ll ignore it like RedState.

  69. 69.

    Comrade Javamanphil

    @matoko_chan: This. NPR had a fascinating story about the Egyptian military and how they are the major industry in the country. They make appliances and other goods. There is yet hope.

  71. 71.

    BGinCHI

    Trolling around the right wing web sites, the lack of coverage seems to indicate fear. They just don’t have any sense of what’s going on internationally, and they can’t see Muslims or “others” as people. It’s depressing.

    I’d love to see this spread to Iran.

    I’d also like to see the US get involved in a substantive, democratic way, and not as Imperialists. Just airdrop the whole Kennedy School of Gov’t and let them help. Or the same crowd from Berkeley.

  74. 74.

    Cat Lady

    The military turned against Mubarak last night, and threatened to take their uniforms off, MSNBC reporting.

  76. 76.

    matoko_chan

    from Abu Aardvarks comments.

    From all the howling coming out of Cairo about “diktats,” it would seem that the Obama administration is doing all it can from a leverage perspective, and the recent calls for freezing of that aid were enough to send rumors running throughout the world that King Abdullah of Saudi suffered a heart attack in the midst of giving Obama a royal earful.
    Per DEBKA, an Israeli news site, King Abdullah, who considers Mubarak a close friend, warned President Obama on January 29th, one day after the cries for freezing the aid began to echo in the States, that Saudi would immediately intervene and fill the gap, dollar-for-dollar. So insofar as the financial leverage is concerned, aside from being a pretty blunt diplomatic tool to employ, it doesn’t seem to be one in the U.S. arsenal at the moment. As the article pointed out, the Saudi monarchy has never directly threatened to oppose a U.S. policy. As in never. With the kingdom sitting pretty on over $400 billion in currency reserves, Mubarak would be good for another 266 years, and the U.S. could risk going from two major allies in the region to none…

  78. 78.

    McGeorge Bundy

    Wow. I leave for a few months and Balloon Juice is totally changed, and there are a million (LITERALLY a million) new posters posting. Crazy times, my friends.

  79. 79.

    JGabriel

    @matoko_chan:

    the army IS the people. the egyptian army is all conscript.

    Yes, but … the people at the highest levels of any organization can become entitled, and live in a bubble isolated from the concerns of the people. Let’s not forget that Sadat and Mubarak were both products of the same conscript military.

    .

  82. 82.

    Ash Can

    The fact that the army seems to be so highly regarded among the Egyptian people boosts my hope that the army’s leadership will be benevolent. Naturally, given its track record in world history, the term “military rule” doesn’t exactly evoke warm fuzzies. As with everything, though, I’m looking to the Egyptian people themselves for my cues, and if they’re comfortable with having the army in this position then so am I.

  83. 83.

    inkadu

    Univision is the only non-news channel running news on Egypt right now. Interesting.

    [Edit: …. and back to telenovelas.]

  87. 87.

    matoko_chan

    @JGabriel: yup, and thats why the generals clung to mubaraks tit until they saw the inevitability of end.

    do you know what is cool?
    13D chess. Obama used Hillary to officially conciliate mubarak and abdullah so he could cleanly denounce mubarak and side with the protestors.
    that was slick.
    muhahhaha

    all your base democracy are belong to us.

  88. 88.

    Poopyman

    @matoko_chan: Lower ranks, certainly. Upper ranking officers have a bit more vested power, and I wouldn’t bet my life on them biding by the will of the people if they had their way. But it seems like they weren’t willing to test just how loyal the lower ranks were to them if ordered to put down the demonstrations.

  91. 91.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @matoko_chan:

    The officers realized the situation had become untenable for the survival of the military. Mubarak’s support among the officers evaporated. That’s what happened here.

    The troops do what they’re told…up to a point, and the officers know that. The officers didn’t want to lose control, which is what orders to fire on the protesters would have precipitated. Some might have obeyed, others may not have.

    Mutiny is a powerful tool.

  92. 92.

    El Cid

    @matoko_chan: I’m stunned. That is actually a good point.

    Though there is a difference between the high level leadership in the conscripts. And lower level officers.

    That doesn’t mean that the high leadership can always impose its will on the lower ranks.

    Reports have held that Mubarak ordered a tank attack on the crowds. I have seen multiple reports that tank commanders removed their headsets, called their families, and chose not to fire.

    I believe it was after those refusals to follow orders that the officer (Tantawi?) publicly announced that the army would not fire on the demonstrators.

  94. 94.

    El Cid

    @Ash Can: Again, reports hold that King Abdullah demanded Washington not cut its aid and keep Mubarak in power, otherwise he would fund the aid.

    It was pretty ridiculous to think that the US would cancel aid. At least not unless some strikingly different government emerged which somehow (military control or not) broke from US policy demands.

  95. 95.

    Poopyman

    Does anyone else think that Suleiman looks like he’s sleepwalking through life?

    And without snark, I have to say that his sort of demeanor gives me the creeps moreso than any dictator pounding his shoe on a podium.

  96. 96.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @matoko_chan:
    The soldier boy for his soldier’s pay
    Obeys the sergeant at arms whatever he says
    The sergeant will for his sergeant’s pay
    Obey the captain ’til his dying day
    The captain will for his captain’s pay
    Obey the general order of battle play
    The generals bow to the government
    Obey the charge you must not relent

    What of the neighbors and the prophets in bars?
    What are they saying in the public bazaar?
    We are tired of the tune
    You must not relent

  97. 97.

    El Cid

    This is a huge foreign policy disaster for Obama.

    Credit should be given to Sarah Palin and Bill Kristol. And His Highness, David Petraeus.

  98. 98.

    SB Jules

    Tom Petty’s Into the Great Wide Open keeps running through my mind. It’s very exciting for this old hippy.

  99. 99.

    mr. whipple

    This is a huge foreign policy disaster for Obama.

    James Rubin was just on MSNBC, saying it would be unseemingly for Obama to take credit, then giving credit to Bush and saying when Obama gave his Cairo speech he was backing Mubarack.( slams head on desk.)

  101. 101.

    JGabriel

    @matoko_chan:

    @JGabriel: when you pet me like that it just makes me want to bite you harder. i am not a tame troll.

    Huh? Did you mean someone else and accidentally posted my name? Cuz’ I don’t see me petting you anywhere in this thread.

    .

  102. 102.

    dr. bloor

    @Violet:

    Wow. The people win. What will this mean for the rest of the Middle East? Amazing.

    I simultaneously envy and snicker at your optimism.

  103. 103.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @El Cid:

    Yes, pretty much confirms that Muslim Socialists can’t do Foreign Policy for squat.

    On edit: damn, but I do hate the boner-pill string. Hate, hate, hate.

  105. 105.

    Jay C

    Seemed because Limbaugh didn’t actually present an argument, he just mocked the statements

    So in other words, just another usual Limbaugh broadcast….

    But the neocons and the AIPAC crowd must be beside themselves with their usual “outrage” – justified for once. Not only has one of “their” pet strongmen gotten the boot, but booted by what seems to be a genuine popular, populist, and, dare we say, democratic movement out of the Egyptian people themselves; and the Obama Administration in place to get good press, and diplomatic credit. Oh, and worst, from their standpoint, the prospect that their hysterical alarmism about an “Islamist takeover” in Egypt will prove to be the overheated bullsh*t it probably is.

    But then, American-Exceptionalist-neo-imperialism can’t ever fail, it can only BE failed…..

    Look for this to be a disgraceful fixture on the Sunday talking-head gas-fests.

  107. 107.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Culture of Truth:

    Breaking: In light of recent events, John McCain has suspended his afternoon nap.

    He’s moved his nap venue from Letterman’s couch to Katie Couric’s.

  108. 108.

    Culture of Truth

    Rubin comes across as a soldier dug in a cave still fighting the primaries of 2008. The war is over, dude!

  110. 110.

    El Cid

    For those (like me) who didn’t see it, here is the brief announcement by Suleiman on Mubarak’s departure.

    Also, here is STRATFOR’s view of it. I think it’s pretty on target.

    Suleiman’s statement is the clearest indication thus far that the military has carried out a coup led by Defense Minister Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi. It is not clear whether Suleiman will remain as the civilian head of the army-led government.
    __
    Egypt is returning to the 1952 model of ruling the state via a council of army officers. The question now is to what extent the military elite will share power with its civilian counterparts.
    __
    At a certain point, the opposition’s euphoria will subside and demands for elections will be voiced. The United States, while supportive of the military containing the unrest, also has a strategic need to see Egypt move toward a more pluralistic system.
    __
    Whether the military stays true to its commitment to hold elections on schedule in September remains to be seen. If elections are held, however, the military must have a political vehicle in place to counter opposition forces, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood. The fate of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) thus lies in question.
    __
    Without the NDP, the regime will have effectively collapsed and the military could run into greater difficulty in running the country. While the military council will be serving as the provisional government, it will likely want to retain as much of the ruling NDP as possible and incorporate elements of the opposition to manage the transition.
    __
    Sustaining its hold over power while crafting a democratic government will be the biggest challenge for the military as it tries to avoid regime change while also dealing with a potential constitutional crisis.

  113. 113.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Jay C:

    But then, American-Exceptionalist-neo-imperialism can’t ever fail, it can only BE failed…..

    This is remarkably similar to the basic outlook of a certain middle-European regime in the first half of the 20th Century, facing unrelenting dDoom as the endless armies of another totalitarian regime were approaching the suburbs of the capital…

  114. 114.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Jay C:

    But then, American-Exceptionalist-neo-imperialism can’t ever fail, it can only BE failed…..

    This is remarkably similar to the basic outlook of a certain middle-European regime in the first half of the 20th Century, facing unrelenting dDoom as the endless armies of another totalitarian regime were approaching the suburbs of the capital…

  115. 115.

    evinfuilt

    @cleek:
    But… they didn’t bring guns, the tea partiers can’t fathom how you can topple a government without open carry and assassination.

    This is an amazing day for Egypt, the entire Middle East and humanity. I just love non-violent revolution, it’s the only type that can last.

  116. 116.

    Culture of Truth

    Credit should be given to Ronald Reagan’s birthday celebration on Meet The Press – whose powerful airplane and mighty desk struck terror is Mubarak’s heart

  117. 117.

    inkadu

    @El Cid:

    The United States, while supportive of the military containing the unrest, also has a strategic need to see Egypt move toward a more pluralistic system.

    Really? Does it? I’ve never seen such a strategic need towards pluralism ever demonstrated. We do quite well with our autocratic puppets.

  119. 119.

    matoko_chan

    Sustaining its hold over power while crafting a democratic government will be the biggest challenge for the military as it tries to avoid regime change while also dealing with a potential constitutional crisis.

    i wonder how many soldiers are also in the MB?
    i know how roughly how many are muslim.
    90%.
    the 1979 iranian revolution succeeded because the army went with the revolutionaries.
    i wonder what happens next.
    :)
    @JGabriel: you all doo eet. Omnes too.

  120. 120.

    Cain

    @El Cid:

    @Ash Can: Again, reports hold that King Abdullah demanded Washington not cut its aid and keep Mubarak in power, otherwise he would fund the aid.

    There was some wierd post about Abduallah getting into a heated conversation with Obama and then promptly had a heart attack afterwards. I can’t remember which 3rd party news oulet was asying that…

    but it could be possible that Abudullah is dead.

    cain

  122. 122.

    SIA

    This is incredible. Richard Engle surrounded by hysterically joyous crowds. Because he can speak the language, he’s able to get some responses from the people. It’s thrilling.

  124. 124.

    cyntax

    Over at LGM, Scott Lemieux observes:

    Meanwhile, I would have to agree that Mubarak would have to be considered the overwhelming favorite for the 2012 GOP nomination if he ran. We know he has the Althouse vote…

    Have to go find the schedule for CPAC…

  127. 127.

    inkadu

    @Culture of Truth: It’s my pre-9/11 mentality.

    Were they motivated by the United States support for the Egyptian government? I do remember a story of Egyptian minting new terrorists out of its torture chambers. If preventing pathological hatred leading to terrorism is now considered an explicit US foreign policy goal, I am indeed heartened.

  131. 131.

    fasteddie9318

    @BGinCHI:

    I’d love to see this spread to Iran.

    Iran would be nice, but watching the Saudis topple would be sweeter. Even if it would mean World War HOLYFUCK, I’d still love to see those bastards get run out of town.

  134. 134.

    eemom

    a certain line from Pulp Fiction about premature dick-sucking keeps coming to mind.

    I am not a historian, so I will ask anyone with actual knowledge: are there relevant examples of regime change where a ruling military has actually ceded power to a democratically elected leadership?

    I guess that’s an oversimplification but it seems to me incredibly naive to assume at this point that this is a substantive rather than a merely cosmetic victory for the Egyptian people.

    Isn’t it frighteningly likely that after the jubilation subsides, the parties are over, the people back home and the momentum lost, there’s a “same as the old boss” result in the end?

  135. 135.

    Amanda in the South Bay

    @Cat Lady:

    I really don’t think Israel is the same as Egypt, there is a significant (however flawed) tradition of elections and democracy in Israel that has no counterpart in pretty much any other Arab country.

    Anyways, I don’t want mobs and the military overthrowing a government that also has nuclear weapons.

  136. 136.

    fasteddie9318

    @eemom:

    I am not a historian, so I will ask anyone with actual knowledge: are there relevant examples of regime change where a ruling military has actually ceded power to a democratically elected leadership?

    That’s a good question. Algeria and Turkey have both had their share of military coups followed by restoration of democracy, but in those cases the military position was “we don’t like who you voted for, so we’re calling a do over.” Not exactly what you’ve got in mind.

  137. 137.

    Cat Lady

    @Amanda in the South Bay:

    Understood, but what I meant is that Israel’s whole approach to their dealings with their neighbors may now be upside down, and they may end up wishing they’d been fairer with the Palestinians.

  138. 138.

    Poopyman

    @Cat Lady:

    … they may end up wishing they’d been fairer with the Palestinians.

    They should be wishing that anyway. As ye sow …

    Not that I’m going all Kumbaya on you, but it seems commonsensical to me that Israel will be paying for their mistreatment of the Palestinians down the road.

  140. 140.

    hilts

    Another Great Moment in Punditry

    Chris Matthews: “The Egyptian protesters won’t accept an ayatollah”

  141. 141.

    El Cid

    @inkadu: I think the argument — which I think is quite sensible — is more that the US would prefer a system in which the military retained real power yet there was a democratically elected government which (a) remained committed to US foreign policy desires and (b) is constrained to be composed of parties which do not threaten (a).

    This isn’t controversial.

    The US generally prefers elected governments in the 3rd world as long as those governments do what we want.

    If they don’t, sometimes we support their fall and support tyrants and coups, but preferably economic and political pressure.

    This was true throughout Central America. Once leftist forces (not simply guerrillas) were sufficiently weakened and slaughtered, it was important to emphasize having a real elected government.

    The US, however, lost its heavy weaponry of control over South America in the late 1990s through 2000s. The mechanism of control for South America throughout the 1980s and 1990s was international lending (IMF, WB, IBD) with concomitant imposition of ultra-Reaganite supply side / anti-regulatory policies to subjugate national economies to Western investory profits.

    Including the enormous profits being made on the loans whose principle had long been paid off.

    Chile was an early leader in gaining actual independence, restoring democracy in 1990 and immediately moving to a social democratic reform program. (Of course, accelerated and consolidated by subsequent Soshullist gov’ts by Lagos and Bachelet.)

    In 2001 Argentina broke their hold with the backing of Venezuela. Since that time, international lenders such as the IMF lost their abilities to force their will upon South American economies.

    Though Venezuela’s and Colombia’s governments are exceptions (for opposite reasons), the US has mainly had to accept the new liberal-left leadership and their institution of economic reforms which prioritize national development over simple foreign investment and which serves as the base of social development to address severe poverty.

    These are the sorts of programs and governments which in the 1960s and 1970s would get a coup and a toady tyrant.

    So, yes, it’s better to have an elected government which does what we want, because it’s more stable (most frequently, not always) and looks better.

    But if there is or might be an elected government which does not do what we want, then if the US foreign policy establishment has its head screwed on tight, the incentive is to undermine elections and reverse governments.

    Thus the destruction of Haiti’s elected Aristide government, and its restoration under severe control by the US, the later kidnapping of Aristide and expulsion to the Central African Republic, and most recently the banning of Lavalas (by far the largest political party) in the recent Presidential elections.

    The US still intervenes in foreign democracy by funding right wing political groups and covert dissent and attacks (other than the Ven. coup, likely supporting separatist movements by the rich and anti-liberal in Zulia in Venezuela and Santa Cruz in Bolivia).

  142. 142.

    eemom

    actually I think the Israelis, while still nervous, are probably feeling better now than they have since this whole thing started. Egypt remaining in the control of its version of The Establishment is the best thing for them. The biggest danger for them — and it would be a HUGE one — would be for Egypt to be controlled by fundamentalist Islamists who would abrogate the peace treaty, in which case all hell would break loose.

  143. 143.

    JAHILL10

    I am so happy for Egypt and her people! My friends in country are over the moon with joy. The next steps will be crucial but I have hope that we are just seeing the beginnings of a series of homegrown democratic revolutions that are going to change the face of the Middle East and make al-Qaeda obsolete. We live in interesting times.

  145. 145.

    El Cid

    @hilts: I don’t pay attention to their gigantic level analyses and long-term predictions.

    In addition, I posted the STRATFOR analysis simply because it was interesting and representative of the views of STRATFOR.

    If there’s a particular disagreement with the paragraphs noted above, I think that should be emphasized for the moment.

  146. 146.

    fasteddie9318

    @hilts:

    Chris Matthews: “The Egyptian protesters won’t accept an ayatollah”

    Yes, Chris, the Egyptians being mostly Sunni, I suspect having an ayatollah would be a major sticking point for them.

    Don’t blame Chris too much, he was too distracted by the thrill going up his leg to think clearly.

  149. 149.

    Calouste

    @eemom:

    I am not a historian, so I will ask anyone with actual knowledge: are there relevant examples of regime change where a ruling military has actually ceded power to a democratically elected leadership?

    Quite few examples I think:

    Spain after Franco, although that was facilitated by the presence of the Spanish monarchy, which made it harder for Franco to appoint another general as his successor.

    Greece and Argentina went from a military juntas to democracies triggered by failed military adventures (Cyprus and the Falklands respectively).

    Chile and Brazil did it without any real external factors.

  150. 150.

    matoko_chan

    @Poopyman: heh. i wonder who’s manning the Blockade right NAOW?
    just Israelis?
    the price of real estate in Tel Aviv is dropping like a rock.
    :)
    one thing we can say, the Blockade will fall.
    as it should.

  151. 151.

    fasteddie9318

    @Calouste: It took Franco dying to get democratic reforms in Spain; in Chile it took almost two decades and the clear sentiment of the populace against him to bring Pinochet down. As you say, it was military misadventures that brought down military juntas in Greece and Argentina. I don’t think you can say any of those cases was an example of a military regime voluntarily turning power over to a newly formed civilian government in the aftermath of a coup.

  152. 152.

    Poopyman

    @eemom: Uh, the army again.

    While an elected Islamist govt might abrogate the peace treaty, I doubt they’d be very successful in getting the public into full anti-Israel fervor or in getting the army to initiate hostilities. It’s been a long time since the war with Israel, and most of the country wasn’t even born back then.

  154. 154.

    matoko_chan

    @Poopyman: i dont think there will be a declaration of war on israel. but the border goes porous, either slow or fast, and the Blockade will fall.
    Like Hamas, the MB recognizes neither the Blockade …..or the state of Israel.
    :)

  155. 155.

    hilts

    @El Cid:

    I appreciate the STRATFOR snippet you provided, the more sources of analysis the better. I just wanted to provide a link that places STRATFOR’s work in a larger context.

  156. 156.

    matoko_chan

    @hilts: not Assad and Qadaffi so much……jordan and yemen and the other american puppets are likely shitting themselves.

  157. 157.

    hilts

    @fasteddie9318: @eemom:

    The amount of stone cold stupidity that emanates from Chris Matthews on a daily basis is mind-boggling. Then there’s his rudeness towards guests. MSNBC needs to fire this asshole.

  160. 160.

    Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)

    Congratulations to Egyptians on getting rid of Mubarak. Hope the military doesn’t get power-mad and that there’s a credible transition to a democratically elected government within a few months.

  162. 162.

    El Cid

    @hilts: I don’t think the Syrian regime fears much yet. As of yet I don’t see any sign that moves to protest have gone anywhere. Nobody seems to be able to get away with even small public gatherings. And surprising as it may be, there’s a pretty high degree of support for the new and younger Assad, who has also carried out a number of reforms. And the army will not refrain from crushing any dissent, unlike the Tunisians and Egyptians.

    However, one interesting thing is that even in regimes not facing protests, leaders are expressing support for the aims of the Egyptian protesters other than demanding the end to regimes.

    Yemen and Jordan faced relatively weak protests, and even then Yemen’s long-term leader announced he too wouldn’t run again, and neither would power be handed to his son. And in Jordan the King for the first time dismissed the government under pressure from the citizens. In Jordan, though, there’s not such intense opposition to the King. He’s not very popular, but the focus is against policies and corruption.

    Algeria has until now repressed any protests and public dissent in general, but apparently like Jordan, unrest is mainly talked about with regard to policies and corruption.

    So far. That might be changing. A big march by a new coalition of the democratic opposition tomorrow (Le Monde) has got the government mobilizing against to stop it.

    “Après Moubarak, c’est Bouteflika.” “After Mubarak, Next is Bouteflika.” So who knows?

    Qaddafi backed Mubarak, but also praised the desire to push for reform and against corruption and for new initiatives. But then he’s always portrayed himself as that very type of leader. And they have enough money to keep employing Qaddafi’s social aid and pay programs. Like Syria the army would back the government.

    For the rest of Africa, I don’t know. Of course, Mugabe always freaks out, and this is no different. And they already hate him, and even when the opposition wins elections they get a bit of co-governing with him. It’s been too complicated the last few years to follow with this and that power-sharing and do this and they won’t do that, etc. Mugabe just needs to die. Fucker.

    Places like Nigeria, always crush or limit protests, but they haven’t even been allowing anti-Mubarak protests, either because it’s like Qaddafi, or because they don’t like anyone setting that precedent, or because they don’t want anything to start which might accelerate against them.

    In a lot of African countries, they’re already in chaos and have divisions in the governments and military and so forth, so I have no idea.

  163. 163.

    Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)

    @El Cid: Well I look at the referendum in Sudan and think things are changing. Slowly, but changing. I’m sure Gbagbo is shitting bricks right now in Cote d’Ivoire (he would definitely have backed Mubarak) as he tries to cling to power but he has a portion of the military backing him for ethnic reasons. The reason it gets complicated in many African countries is that the military is dominated by people from the same ethnic group as the dictator. Nigeria did a handover from military dictatorship to democratic civilian rule in 1999 but keeps recycling former military dictators as candidates for political primaries. I don’t think any of the candidates there would support Mubarak though. I agree that Mugabe needs to expire soon. The power-sharing agreement was the worst possible deal. Rumor has it that Mugabe is waiting for his oldest son to turn 18 so he can hand over power to him. Crazy fucker. He would definitely have wanted to see Mubarak stay in power.

  164. 164.

    Elizabelle

    I think it’s wrong that Mubarak should take billions upon billions out of the country, or wherever he “retires” to.

    Any chance the people (OK the army) can claw back some of his ill gotten gains?

    It’s shameful to hear how the elite classes rip off the system and the middle/working/poor.

    Those billions could go a long way towards education and healthcare.

  165. 165.

    Poopyman

    @Elizabelle: I’m sure the new govt can request that foreign banks freeze his accounts. The trick, of course, is finding the accounts and hoping you have better relationships with the govt and its banks than Mubarak does.

    And if I were the new govt, I’d use the cash to subsidize food costs. There’s a good argument that rising unrest is tied to rising food costs.

  167. 167.

    Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)

    @Elizabelle: Depends on where he has the money stashed. Nigeria was able to recover about $500 million of over $2.2 billion stashed in Swiss accounts by a dictator but other countries weren’t as cooperative. The Maldives is getting help in recovering $400 million of its money through the World Bank and UN’s Stolen Asset Recovery Initiative. It’ll be difficult but not impossible to claw back some of the money. Some will be permanently lost though.

  169. 169.

    Poopyman

    @Poopyman: And as if on cue, this from The Guardian:

    7.24pm GMT: The Swiss government has frozen any assets belonging to Hosni Mubarak or family in Switzerland. The Foreign Ministry gave no details on what assets the Mubaraks hold in Switzerland, saying it “wants to avoid any risk of misappropriation of state-owned Egyptian assets”.

  170. 170.

    cossacksare

    Exactly what percentage of the 80,000,000 Egyptians is actively protesting? How is this abdication of power under pressure of the military and a minority of activists anything that could be called “democracy”?

    Mubarak sucks, and he should have gone years ago. But don’t delude yourselves into thinking that this is the action of “the people of Egypt”.

  171. 171.

    fasteddie9318

    @cossacksare:

    How is this abdication of power under pressure of the military and a minority of activists anything that could be called “democracy”?

    It’s a little more democratic than Mubarak’s military government ever was. Where the country goes next is what matters.

  172. 172.

    cossacksare

    @fasteddie9318

    Sure, OK, but it’s nonsense to talk about this ouster as if it’s democracy, or anything close to it.

    There was a funny letter to the local paper here the other day saying that the perfect solution would be for Obama and Mubarak to trade places, because Egypt needs an Islamist socialist, and…because America needs a military dictatorship? It was profoundly strange.

  173. 173.

    Calouste

    @cossacksare:

    Man, that wins the internet prize for the most moronic comment of the day. Congratulations!

    Is it only democratic if 50% +1 of the people take the streets? Do you also think the USA should be given back to Britain because only a tiny fraction of the then US population fought at Yorktown and they were helped by (gasp!) the French?

  174. 174.

    El Cid

    This is a statement issued by the Muslim Brotherhood leader Assam Al-Arian / Essan El-Erianupon the ouster of Mubarak.

    Essam El Erian, spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood party, which was banned by Mubarak, hails what he calls Egypt’s “historic moment of victory.” He tells Al-Jazeera TV that Egyptians brought about a “new history in the country and the region” and showed that they can accomplish it “without any help.”
    __
    “This revolution was done by all Egyptians — Christians and Muslims, old and young,” he says.
    __
    He says the country has embraced a “new model of democracy” for freedom that can now be added to democratic models in the West.

    Two days ago he wrote a column for the New York Times (via their own website). This is a man repeatedly imprisoned by Mubarak and released the most recent time just a week ago, a doctor and former legislator.

    He describes MB’s ideological views and goals for a democratic Egypt would be. It was published on the 9th.

    Note the absence of fundamentalist language, in fact the opposite.

    In more than eight decades of activism, the Muslim Brotherhood has consistently promoted an agenda of gradual reform. Our principles, clearly stated since the inception of the movement in 1928, affirm an unequivocal position against violence. For the past 30 years we have posed, peacefully, the greatest challenge to the ruling National Democratic Party of Hosni Mubarak, while advocating for the disenfranchised classes in resistance to an oppressive regime.
    __
    We have repeatedly tried to engage with the political system, yet these efforts have been largely rejected based on the assertion that the Muslim Brotherhood is a banned organization, and has been since 1954. It is seldom mentioned, however, that the Egyptian Administrative Court in June 1992 stated that there was no legal basis for the group’s dissolution.
    __
    In the wake of the people’s revolt, we have accepted invitations to participate in talks on a peaceful transition. Along with other representatives of the opposition, we recently took part in exploratory meetings with Vice President Omar Suleiman. In these talks, we made clear that we will not compromise or co-opt the public’s agenda. We come with no special agenda of our own — our agenda is that of the Egyptian people, which has been asserted since the beginning of this uprising.
    __
    We aim to achieve reform and rights for all: not just for the Muslim Brotherhood, not just for Muslims, but for all Egyptians. We do not intend to take a dominant role in the forthcoming political transition. We are not putting forward a candidate for the presidential elections scheduled for September.
    __
    While we express our openness to dialogue, we also re-assert the public’s demands, which must be met before any serious negotiations leading to a new government. The Mubarak regime has yet to show serious commitment to meeting these demands or to moving toward substantive, guaranteed change.
    __
    As our nation heads toward liberty, however, we disagree with the claims that the only options in Egypt are a purely secular, liberal democracy or an authoritarian theocracy. Secular liberal democracy of the American and European variety, with its firm rejection of religion in public life, is not the exclusive model for a legitimate democracy.
    __
    In Egypt, religion continues to be an important part of our culture and heritage. Moving forward, we envision the establishment of a democratic, civil state that draws on universal measures of freedom and justice, which are central Islamic values. We embrace democracy not as a foreign concept that must be reconciled with tradition, but as a set of principles and objectives that are inherently compatible with and reinforce Islamic tenets.
    __
    The tyranny of autocratic rule must give way to immediate reform: the demonstration of a serious commitment to change, the granting of freedoms to all and the transition toward democracy. The Muslim Brotherhood stands firmly behind the demands of the Egyptian people as a whole.

    I’m sure people debate the view of El-Erian as representing the most powerful or soon-to-be powerful parts of MB.

    Assuming that he would not be fronted as a spokesman if his statements were contrary to MB views, Islamic fundamentalist groups don’t use such sectarian and moderate language.

    Things can always change, of course. But for a nation which has continuously destroyed any secular opposition, it’s a pretty seriously moderate, and on some issues liberal, Islamic political and social (and of course religious) movement.

  175. 175.

    Tehanu

    @cleek:

    Are you kidding? Put their precious selves on the line with soldiers in tanks all over the place? What part of “I had other priorities” didn’t you get when Cheney explained it?

  176. 176.

    El Cid

    @fasteddie9318: I think I’ve most heard the term in association with the movement and its demands and aspirations.

    And of course hoping and demanding that a real elected government would proceed this current “transitional” government.

    “Transitional” being a term used by them because they wish it to be temporary and leading to something democratic, as democratic as possible.

  177. 177.

    cossacksare

    @Calouste

    A democratic revolution takes place when democracy actually gets installed. Not, you know, when a dictator gets forced out of power. Would you characterize French government in the period following the French Revolution to be democratic?

    Also, the American Revolution wasn’t actually, uh, democratic.

    I’m not saying that this is illegitimate, merely that it’s ridiculous to buy into the American fantasy that getting rid of a dictator leads in a straight line to liberal democracy.

  178. 178.

    Comrade Mary

    Of course, I would be on my bike when all this went down.

    But now that I’m back: could some kind front pager please feature this YouTube video up front? The footage sums up the past few weeks pretty well, and the music has me reconsidering my disdain for Kanye.

  179. 179.

    matoko_chan

    @El Cid: el Campeador, can there be an islamic “democracy” in egypt?
    freedom of speech is not compatible with shariah law.
    the lawcudlips at volokh are telling meh that democracy MUST HAVE at a minimum freedom of speech and freedom of religion.
    i dont think that will happen. 84% of egyptians favor the death penalty for apostasy.
    i think you missed this.

    im not recruiting for the Brothers. im admiring their evolution.
    im an otaku of evolution, did you know?
    __
    2330 GMT: Many sources, including CNN, are speculating that Mubarak did not step down because he may want to lure the protesters into committing acts of violence so he can then crackdown upon them.
    __
    the MB were once fiery and violent…now they are playing a long game, and playing it very, very well.

  180. 180.

    matoko_chan

    In Egypt, religion continues to be an important part of our culture and heritage. Moving forward, we envision the establishment of a democratic, civil state that draws on universal measures of freedom and justice, which are central Islamic values. We embrace democracy not as a foreign concept that must be reconciled with tradition, but as a set of principles and objectives that are inherently compatible with and reinforce Islamic tenets.

    you see……shariah law is encoded defense against proselytization.
    shariah and islamic jurisprudence are the core of al-Islam.
    free speech means proselytization which is against the teachings of al-Islam.
    christians believe their faith commands them to proselytize. muslims believe their faith commands them to resist proselytization.

  182. 182.

    matoko_chan

    with its firm rejection of religion in public life, is not the exclusive model for a legitimate democracy.

    this i also believe.
    Do you believe that el Campeador?
    you missed this too.
    ill just repost it here.
    El Cid SAYS

    If anyone here is curious about Islam, or wants to convert, or wants to join the Muslim Brotherhood, or whatever

    you are confused Old Man. Sufis are forbidden to discuss the sirr of Sufism. i dont proselytize.

    yours is better for you, mine is better for me, and all paths….are the One Path

    how many times must i quote the Muhyyidin?

    “Beware of confining yourself to a particular belief and denying all else, for much good would elude you—indeed, the knowledge of reality would elude you. Be in yourself a matter for all forms of belief, for God is too vast and tremendous to be restricted to one belief rather than another.”

    Since you seem interested…..i follow mevlevi school but my adab is Zunnun

    Common people repent from their sins, the Sufi repent from ignorance. —Zunnun

  183. 183.

    matoko_chan

    @El Cid:

    such sectarian and moderate language.

    how would you know? what is your definition of an “islamist”?
    lets try this again.

    In more than eight decades of activism, the Muslim Brotherhood has consistently promoted an agenda of gradual reform. Our principles, clearly stated since the inception of the movement in 1928, affirm an unequivocal position against violence. For the past 30 years we have posed, peacefully, the greatest challenge to the ruling National Democratic Party of Hosni Mubarak, while advocating for the disenfranchised classes in resistance to an oppressive regime.

    We have repeatedly tried to engage with the political system, yet these efforts have been largely rejected based on the assertion that the Muslim Brotherhood is a banned organization, and has been since 1954. It is seldom mentioned, however, that the Egyptian Administrative Court in June 1992 stated that there was no legal basis for the group’s dissolution.

    In the wake of the people’s revolt, we have accepted invitations to participate in talks on a peaceful transition. Along with other representatives of the opposition, we recently took part in exploratory meetings with Vice President Omar Suleiman. In these talks, we made clear that we will not compromise or co-opt the public’s agenda. We come with no special agenda of our own — our agenda is that of the [90% muslim] Egyptian people, which has been asserted since the beginning of this uprising.
    __
    We aim to achieve reform and rights for all: not just for the Muslim Brotherhood, not just for Muslims, but for all Egyptians. [ed. Egypt is 90% muslim] We do not intend to take a dominant role in the forthcoming political transition. We are not putting forward a candidate for the presidential elections scheduled for September.
    __
    While we express our openness to dialogue, we also re-assert the public’s demands, which must be met before any serious negotiations leading to a new government. The Mubarak regime has yet to show serious commitment to meeting these demands or to moving toward substantive, guaranteed change.
    __
    As our nation heads toward liberty, however, we disagree with the claims that the only options in Egypt are a purely secular, liberal democracy or an authoritarian theocracy. Secular liberal democracy of the American and European variety, with its firm rejection of religion in public life, is not the exclusive model for a legitimate democracy.

    In Egypt, religion continues to be an important part of our culture and heritage. Moving forward, we envision the establishment of a democratic, civil state that draws on universal measures of freedom and justice, which are central Islamic values. We embrace democracy not as a foreign concept that must be reconciled with tradition, but as a set of principles and objectives that are inherently compatible with and reinforce Islamic tenets.
    __
    The tyranny of autocratic rule must give way to immediate reform: the demonstration of a serious commitment to change, the granting of freedoms to all and the transition toward democracy. The Muslim Brotherhood stands firmly behind the demands of the [90% muslim] Egyptian people as a whole.

    doesnt sound very secular to meh.
    lawl.

  185. 185.

    matoko_chan

    and just because….the New Allahpundit is as bitter and pissy as an old maid with hemmorroids (i usta be friends with the old, pre-Obama, allahpundit)

    A taste for you of what’s to come this afternoon after The One speaks and the media gets to work on transforming two weeks of embarrassment into a glorious foreign policy masterstroke.

    but actually….wolfie is right.

    Wolf Blitzer: I wonder if Obama’s Cairo speech had something to do with this

    I said at the time that Obama was talking to the youth of dar ul Islam in his Cairo speech. the young people of the Iranian sea of green heard him. and the young people of Egypt also.
    who else?

Comments are closed.