Sorry to be mostly only posting about immigration reform these days, I feel it’s by far the most important political issue out there right now. No one’s vote will be affected by SnowdenGate or IRSGate or BenghaziGate or EgyptGate.
What a lot of people don’t get about politics is that some issues serve as cultural signifiers and others don’t. Republicans have gotten a lot of mileage out of their positions on guns and reproductive rights, even though polls often show that the public agrees with Democrats on these issues, because having guns and opposing reproductive rights is frequently part of a lifestyle (for lack of a better word), whereas favoring gun control and a woman’s right to choose is typically not.
The immigration issue is clearly on the verge of becoming cultural signifier, if it isn’t one already, and it’s clearly one that motivates more pro-immigration voters than anti-immigration voters. By the way, the idea that a path-to-citizenship helps Democrats enormously is bogus. Harry Enten here estimates that it would only create about 1.7 million new Latino voters, enough to increase Democrats share of the vote by about half a percent. That’s not much.
On the other hand, the electorate becomes about 2% more non-white every four years. With current voting rates, that translates to about a 0.6% Democratic gain every four years, with no end in sight..unless Republicans find a way to do better among non-white voters.
It would be insane for Republicans to continue down this path. But they probably will, says Norman Ornstein:
So here’s the Republican dilemma: The House and Southern Republican parties are more concerned with ideological purity and tribal politics than they are with building a durable, competitive national party base to win presidential and Senate majorities. In most cases, they are in no danger of losing their House seats or their hegemony in their states. They will be resistant to changes in social policy that reflect broad national opinion; resistant to any policies or rhetoric, including but not limited to immigration, that would appeal to Hispanics, African-Americans, or Asian-Americans; and resistant to policies like Medicaid expansion or Head Start that would ameliorate the plight of the poor. They also will be more inclined to use voter-suppression methods to reduce the share of votes cast by those population groups than to find ways to appeal to them. I see little or nothing, including a potential loss in 2016, that will change this set of dynamics anytime soon.
BGinCHI
Shorter Ornstein: Them fuckers is crazy.
RP
I’m convinced that we’re headed towards a de facto secession. The south is rapidly becoming a separate country with completely different views and laws w/r/t voting rights, abortion, gay marriage, immigration, etc. As a result of those lifestyle issues, gerrymandering, etc., the GOP will get a larger and larger share of a shrinking market as the dominant party of a few southern states. The biggest problem for the GOP is that Texas might not be one of those states in a few years as the latino community increases. Without Texas the GOP may as well pack in it on the national level.
Obviously I’m not breaking any new ground with these observations.
eric
Much of conservative thought in American is a particular strain of Christianity that focuses on the rebirth of the soul allowed by Christ’s sacrifice on the Cross and Christ’s coming Vengeance couched as Justice. In this world view, losing is a precursor to winning, such that every defeat will be redeemed in the future if you have enough faith in your vision. If they lose a political battle now (Christ on the Cross) then they will win more profoundly and totally in the future (Judgment) because they are pure and the infidels must always lose. The allegorical-mythical model of the dying-redemptive-returning Christ is the model for everything these people do.
eric
Much of conservative thought in American is a particular strain of Christianity that focuses on the rebirth of the soul allowed by Christ’s sacrifice on the Cross and Christ’s coming Vengeance couched as Justice. In this world view, losing is a precursor to winning, such that every defeat will be redeemed in the future if you have enough faith in your vision. If they lose a political battle now (Christ on the Cross) then they will win more profoundly and totally in the future (Judgment) because they are pure and the infidels must always lose. The allegorical-mythical model of the dying-redemptive-returning Christ is the model for everything these people do.
Ksmiami
@RP: then [email protected]@ them, take their Advil and militAry bases and build a wall. I’m tired of dealing with these neAnderthals
RP
Oh, and I think people will increasingly vote with their feet as liberals, young women, and minorities move to the North, Midwest, and West. That will increase the white conservative share of the vote, but create a brain drain in the south and decrease their overall political power.
BGinCHI
@Ksmiami: When all they have left is bigotry and Tylenol we will have won a great victory.
johnny aquitard
Wait…there’s a difference?
The House, what with its teabaggarts and its 30-something-odd attempts to stop Obamacare, is for all intents and purposes an extension of the will of the Republican party, and there is no other Republican party but the Southern Republican party.
srv
We white folk aren’t just threatened in the South, we’re threatened in the blogosphere. All these tiny little fonts and .js scripts that whack out our browsers – a regular conspiracy against us.
If the John Cole’s of the Left were really magnanimous, they’d offer more accessibility functions and maybe let a real libertarian FP over here.
beltane
@BGinCHI: Don’t forget the deep-fried lard drenched in melted butter and washed down with gallons of super-sweet iced tea. If they’re going, let them go happy.
JoyfulA
Oddly enough, here in south-central Pennsylvania, we seem to have a good number of Egyptians, often in owning and/or running gas stations.
Just Some Fuckhead
Don’t be leaving out Honey Boo Boo.
johnny aquitard
And what does he mean by ‘they will be’? They are.
raven
@RP: You obviously know not one damn thing about the south.
Craigo
I’m disappointed that DougJ hasn’t posted on McArgleBargle’s latest – there is “a 70% chance” that the Republican party will control both houses and the presidency by 2017, therefore Democrats are stoopid to alter the filibuster.
Probability that she provided any evidence for this prediction? Zero.
Rick Massimo
They look out over their states and see white people, and generations of new white people being born, and they figure their political party is safe.
No, nothing racial about that at all.
Quincy
Everyone always brings up Texas as the state where Latino voters will eventually bring about the GOP’s doom, but Nate Cohn’s piece today about Florida suggests we may not have to wait that long. How do the Republicans get to 270 without Florida? They don’t seriously believe they can sweep the entire upper Midwest do they? Granted, this does nothing to remove the bastards from their strongholds in State government and the congress. But it clarifies that concerns about demographic viability aren’t about some hypothetical future a decade or two from now.
Hunter Gathers
I don’t think that it will dig that hole that much deeper for them. The Villagers will still drag them over the finish line, and come up with tons of examples of why Latino voters are ‘unBurkean, hyperpartisan shrills’ for being unwilling to vote for George P. Bush in the POTUS election of 2028. The only time they’ll get treated with any respect will be for the first few days after an election. After that, it’ll be endless hours of wankery on why the Dem victor was unable to appeal to white male voters.
BGinCHI
@beltane: Take away the Goody’s headache powder and their cholesterol meds and all you have to do is play the waiting game.
Napoleon
@BGinCHI:
And meth. Don’t forget the meth.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@RP: The problem is they can’t actually secede. But they can do damage to the rest of the country. John Calhoun was correct in one sense: The constitution does grant a few people in a few states the ability to fuck over the rest of us.
BGinCHI
@Craigo: Seriously? 70%?
Is she on the board of Diebold?
BGinCHI
@Napoleon: You will never take that away. Haven’t you been watching Breaking Bad?
James E. Powell
One thing I’m curious about. Back in 2006, there were some pretty impressive marches. Half a million here in Los Angeles. Now? Next to nothing. Why is that so?
Yatsuno
@RP: The Latino populations are also growing in the other Southern states as well. There is a large demographic surge happening all over the South and the good ol’ boy racists don’t like it one bit. So a lot of what is happening is an attempt to establish their own version of apartheid and expect Fat Tony and the other four con judges to keep it for them. This is why I keep rooting for the cannoli.
Rustydude
Wow, this is some good synthesis by DougJ and Ornstein. I never thought of how the # of supposedly new Democrats caused by a path to citizenship is dwarfed by the demographic #’s of increased Latino voters, every 4 years. From this standpoint, yes the GOP is cutting off their nose to spite their face.
rp
@raven: Then enlighten me.
Cassidy
@BGinCHI: Hey now, I’m all for most of my Floridians going for a long swim into the Atlantic, but you touch my Goody’s powder and we’re gonna fight.
raven
@rp: Oh never mind, people are lined up on the borders just like to Joad’s to migrate back up to the North.
Doug Milhous J
@Craigo:
We need filibuster reform anyway, I’m for it even if Republicans do control the Senate in the future.
NotMax
By now, Ornstein’s piece is rehashing Old News.
BGinCHI
@Cassidy: See? There it is. That powder is the key.
johnny aquitard
Norm notes: “there are ever more signs of a Republican Party veering to the right edge of the right wing of the political spectrum”
That right edge of the right wing of the political spectrum has a name when its ideology focuses on national rebirth (“take our country back”) and ultranationalism.
It’s called fascism.
BGinCHI
@Doug Milhous J: Yes. Let’s let the party in the majority pass laws they believe in and see how it goes. If the Dems get control and don’t use it wisely they’ll pay at election time. If the GOP gets control and passes what they believe in then they’ll have to own it.
It’s a trap for the party who has unpopular ideas and policy positions.
scav
@James E. Powell: Welcome to the wonderful world of dealing with people — 100% consistent output (linear to amount of defined input) is not among their standard repertoire. But then, some straw trigger will be tripped and whoomph (“where did they come from? They seemed so qui-et and hap-py”.) Many may also be rather busy or exhausted in this target rich environment we’re blessed with.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Doug Milhous J: The filibuster probably wouldn’t work for Democrats anyway. I imagine Mark Pryor, Dianne Feinstein and enough of their ilk would take a principled stand in favor of up or down votes.
Davis X. Machina
@Quincy:
Results from Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin, where they’ve been successful in getting workers in one election or another to tie nooses around their own necks on the strength of appeals to tribe and sect, must be encouraging.
Jewish Steel
I’ve taken it as an article of faith but never read any real numbers w/r/t the demographic shift in America. Thanks for that, DougJ!
BGinCHI
@johnny aquitard: It’s also called White Supremacy.
raven
@Davis X. Machina: Yea but folks from the South are falling all over themselves to get up there.
Mike in NC
Since when has that mattered to them? Ask former Senator Jim DeMint. He walked away because the esteemed institution wasn’t ideologically pure enough for him (and Heritage was offering better money).
Punchy
It’s Friday, nearly beer-thirty. Anyone got a pool raft I can borrow for 71 seconds?
BGinCHI
Does anyone know where I can get a national map (or list) of states from the most rural to the least rural? I’d also settle for the most urban to the least urban.
reflectionephemeral
It would be insane for Republicans to continue down this path.
Well, as a certain incisive commentator was arguing over at OTB this morning in response to a David Brooks column making the same point DougJ makes here(!):
I imagine it’s also better for the bank account to be Ross Douthat or George Will than Bruce Bartlett or Josh Barro.
BGinCHI
@Punchy: Failing to plan is planning to fail.
I like your can-do attitude.
Anoniminous
Well, maybe.
The GOP House seats are gerrymandered up the wahzoo. An “outlier” non-presidential election turn-out – say 46% – nationwide in 2014 could change seats in Florida, Ohio, and Texas. Have to hold everything and flip 25 seats, a tall order but do-able.
Napoleon
@BGinCHI:
Which is why the Reps love the filibuster and other minority blocking techniques and they run away from things like, say, voucherizing Social Security when they are in a majority but instead try to use minority blocking to get the Dems to buy into it. They know they will not be held accountable as the minority, so they should not be allowed to block as the minority. If they want to own a policy position they are going to have to do it when they are in the majority and they own the results.
rp
@raven: What are you talking about? My point is simply that, if states like va and nc continue to pass harsh bills on abortion, some people will vote with their feet over the next 20 years. Not sure why you have a bug up your a** about that.
raven
@BGinCHI: US Census
Mino
@RP: Create a brain drain? Heaven help them.
Mnemosyne
@Davis X. Machina:
Don’t let Indiana’s geographical placement fool you — at heart, they’ve always been a Southern state.
PeakVT
The immigration issue is clearly on the verge of becoming cultural signifier, if it isn’t one already…
Maybe it’s emerging as a signifier on the left, but it’s long been that way on the right. There’s never been a time when rank-and-file conservatives have been pro-immigration. It just disappeared as an issue for a while because the reform of 1986 was supposed to take care of the problem, and because new shiny objects came along (Clinton, then 9/11).
Gravenstone
@BGinCHI: Typical McMegan calculator action – slide the decimal a couple spots to the right. She obviously meant a 0.70% chance.
Anoniminous
@BGinCHI:
Not sure what you need but here’s a link to start your selection.
raven
@rp: Because “some” people actually stay and fight where they live and the idea that this bullshit is confined to a the south is nonsense.
scav
Somebody kick Iowa in the SC, they’re acting stupid again but can usually respond to reminders (Unlike Indiana).
SharIA
Pre-emptive
Unemployment
Rights
Defeats
Adulterous
Husband
Ksmiami
@BGinCHI: I want them to live in their own mini Somalia … Bu bye
Cassidy
I’m thinking some apple pie shine would be good for tonight. Unfortunately, I have none.
Quincy
@Davis X. Machina: I’m sure it is tempting. And I suppose my question should be rhetorical because of course conservatives will ignore logic. But winning governorships in 2010 just isn’t the same as sweeping Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio with a presidential electorate – the kind of electorate that sends Tammy Baldwin to the Senate. Aside from Ohio, those States haven’t gone Republican for President in decades. You have to really hate non-white people to convince yourself that suddenly flipping all of them in the same year is a better electoral strategy than trying to appear less obnoxious to a few hundred thousand Latino voters in Florida. But, then, that’s pretty much where they’re at.
beltane
@PeakVT: The Republican party contained nativist elements from the moment it came into being, absorbing the remnants of the Know-Nothings and not looking back from that point forward. Even sane, otherwise semi-progressive Republicans such as Teddy Roosevelt were quite shrill when it came to the subject of the White Protestant Homeland being invaded by the cultural enemy of the day.
Yatsuno
@Anoniminous: It was rather kind of the teafolk to give us some rope to hang themselves with. That food stamp non-vote needs to cost them and cost them good. And yes the Dems need to make huge noise about it.
mdblanche
Yeah well, the Republicans are gonna write their own immigration plan. With blackjack and border fences. In fact forget the immigration plan and the blackjack. Ah, screw the whole thing.
Stooleo
Cities in the south like Nashville, Austin and Atlanta are actually kind of progressive. Its the rural areas where political change only happens one funeral at a time.
PeakVT
@PeakVT: I should add that unlike on guns and abortion and whatnot, the Repuke party is fundamentally split between the elites and rank-and-file on immigration. But being pro-immigration is still a signifier of liberalism to the rank-and-file.
Davis X. Machina
@Quincy: Indiana went GOP in every election since Noah shut the door on the Ark, except 2008.
Anyways, the point isn’t the presidency, it’s Congress, the state houses, and governorships. The last two let you redistrict, and hold the first.
They’re not looking to win, they’re looking to not-lose. Expect a dramatic drop-off in naked appeals to racism — instead, cultural stuff, and economic crab-bucket measures on pensions, health care, etc… There’s more than one kind of resentment.
Bobby Thomson
@RP:
How so? Even stupid people count in apportionment.
BGinCHI
@Mnemosyne: Bottom half for sure, and some of the northern rural counties. But not everywhere, no.
Certainly not my beloved Tippecanoe County.
? Martin
When did we get a national popular vote?
A lot of the benefit from immigration reform will come in places like CA that don’t help Dems, but Texas is also a majority/minority state. Even if immigration reform does nothing more than turn Texas blue, then that’s game over – the GOP has no southern strategy left. But it also helps secure Nevada, may turn Arizona and Georgia. And what’s the downside? What majority white states would the Dems lose? I don’t see any.
burnspbesq
@James E. Powell:
Lucy hasn’t definitively pulled the football away yet. Once that happens, Piolin will wake up pissed off one morning, say the word, and it’ll happen.
Anoniminous
@Yatsuno:
If OFA put the same effort into the coming election they put into the 2012 election the House would probably flip. I can’t get answers from an OFA mid-level muckty-muck in I know. At the moment they are all gah-gah/goo-goo over immigration reform and I’m not hearing any strategic/tactical forward thinking.
Anecdotal ain’t Data of course but it would be a shame if they $%@! this up. Again.
reflectionephemeral
@Davis X. Machina: They’re not looking to win, they’re looking to not-lose.
I don’t think there’s that much of a master strategy. They’re each individually looking to not lose to some Christine O’Donnell or Richard Mourdock in the primaries, and not to have to put up with hostile mail and phone calls from Fox viewers.
Ed Drone
@JoyfulA:
And nationwide, a lot of hotel management personnel comr from Assam, India.
Ed
japa21
What gets me is that the GOP apparently thinks their stance on immigration only impacts the latino community. There are a lot of moderate independents, who may frequently vote Republican who are strongly pro-immigration reform. Does the GOP think they won’t lose some of those votes?
What they are doing is catering to the 27% and hoping the other 20% of their voters won’t see what they are doing. Sure, in those districts that go 65% GOP, they probably won’t lose much. Probably win with 60% of the vote. But those that they tend to win with 55% could be in trouble.
lockewasright
Americans love a winner and hate a loser. It’ll take a few elections, but young people in the south will become less conservative as a result… I hope.
BGinCHI
@lockewasright: Sandra Locke fan?
I agree she was right to give Clint the boot. He treated her pretty bad.
gypsy howell
Considering all of the success Republican-led states are having with enacting extreme right-wing laws on the state and local level, even in those states that went democratic for the presidency, maybe the republicans have figured out a long term successful gameplan.
As long as they can prevent anything from getting done at the federal level with obstruction by a Republican minority in the Senate, and they can enact draconian laws and policies at the state level where it has the most direct impact on individuals (abortion restrictions, gun laws, marriage laws, voting laws, state tax laws, environmental destruction, corporate give-aways, medicare rejection, slashing education budgets, etc), then by any standard, they’re getting an awful lot of what they want done.
If Republicans start losing state legislatures and governorships, then I’ll believe their days are numbered.
Until then, it looks to me like they’re winning, not us.
Napoleon
@japa21:
Something I rarely see mentioned, although amazingly Grover Norquest has made this point, I think the Rep position is an extremely strong turn off to any non-white and/or non-Christian person, absolutely irrespective of whether the US’ immigration policy will effect them and their family. Show me a Christian Asian person whose entire family are native born citizens I and will show you someone who after the last 10 years of Rep demonization of Latinos is really going to think twice about voting Rep. People focus on Latinos and I really think that is way too narrow a way of looking at the damage the Rep are doing to themselves.
Oh, and did I mention a lot of those other ethnic groups are in socio-economic groups where if they decide to participate in numbers (ie, contribute) it could really hurt the Reps.
BGinCHI
@gypsy howell: Let’s wait and see what “winning” looks like in those states once the policies get enacted. Obamacare is already driving wedges. State budget austerity is going to have a huge impact. What am I forgetting?
danimal
The GOP has effectively written off Latinos as a competitive demographic. Immigration reform only stems the bleeding.
But the real electoral pain will come from Asian-Americans and moderate whites who look at the unthinking preening neaderthals and say “I sympathize with the GOP, but these fools deserve to lose.” We saw a fair amount of that in the 2012 election, but the GOP base-pandering continues, and therefore continues to drive obtainable demographic blocks into the Dem column. Please proceed, GOP.
Mnemosyne
@Napoleon:
One of the front-pagers had some quotes the other day showing that Asian-Americans are strongly voting Democratic these days because (unlike white voters), they can look at the rhetoric being directed at African-Americans and Latinos and think, Holy shit, these assholes are going to come after me next.
Matt McIrvin
They can’t constitutionally secede, but they can subdivide states if they have control of Congress and the state legislature. (I’m don’t think there’s any case law about whether the President can veto this, but it isn’t specifically mentioned in the Constitution.)
So suppose the Republicans win narrow control of Congress in 2014, then take Idaho, Utah and Wyoming and divide each of them into ten new states, with the consent of the heavily Republican state legislatures. Each one gets two Senators, one Representative and three electoral votes. Some more-populous states lose Representatives and corresponding electoral votes. That’s probably enough of a thumb on the scale to make the Republicans a viable party with a whites-only base for a while to come. If it’s not enough, just make more! One possible danger is making states with fewer than three residents, so there’s nobody to fill the Congressional seats, but surely somebody can be induced to move there.
Napoleon
@Mnemosyne:
Exactly.
Xenos
@johnny aquitard:
Try revanchism. It takes a bit more to make fascism, such as armed thugs to control the streets. A fleet of hoverrounds will not do it.
danimal
@BGinCHI: What are you forgetting? Food stamp (SNAP) cuts are going to be as big an own-goal as immigration non-reform.
The foundation of the GOP is flaking away, and they won’t know what hit them. Poor and middle-class whites have voted GOP for social issues, but the economic issues will eventually corrode their support.
Demographic doom isn’t inevitable for the GOP, but they need to make a policy turn or two that seems to be impossible for them.
Napoleon
@Mnemosyne:
Oh, and PS, I think I read a little while back that people of Arab ancestory for quite some time broke Republican. Not any more, and to point out the obvious a lot of them are not working for landscaping companies, so if they really decide to participate they can do so with votes and money.
BGinCHI
@danimal: Yep.
The stats on who gets assistance in rural America is not a story of browns getting rich on the dole. Also once the olds die or get their monthly checks and benefits threatened the GOP can go pound salt. It takes very little to piss off old people in this country right now.
Matt McIrvin
@Napoleon: George W. Bush actively campaigned for the Arab-American vote and the Muslim vote in 2000, and he won both. All that was just thrown away after 2001.
PeakVT
@Matt McIrvin: Presidents have traditionally signed the admittance resolution, and the Constitution sez:
So I don’t think the Congress could admit states over Obama’s objection without a supermajority in both chambers.
JoyfulA
@Ed Drone: I have heard that to speak with the hotel manager, all one needs to do is go to the desk and ask for Mr Patel, but the only Patel I’ve met is an internist.
Tom Q
@BGinCHI: All the people who describe the GOP as “winning” because they control statehouses in WI/MI/FL/OH/PA are passing over the fact that, as you say, the governments in those states have turned out far more right-wing than advertised, and they’ve yet to be tested for re-election.
Has everyone forgotten that the 2010 election featured about the most favorable field for the opposition (i.e., non-presidential) party in decades? — not only the off-year turnout slant, but taking place at the height of the worst recession in 80 years.
Put it this way: if all those Midwest-plus-FL GOP governors get re-elected next year, then I’ll start to worry about what Republicans can do locally. Till that happens, I’m looking at 2010 — the only successful GOP election out of the last four — as a fluke that’ll be at least ameliorated and possibly outright reversed next time out. (Not at the House level, because redistricting in the hands of GOP makes that harder to offset till the next census, but statewide)
Matt McIrvin
@PeakVT: Hmm, yeah, that sounds like it would cover admission of new states, much as it does other legislation.
Seanly
@rp:
Word – my wife & I have vowed never to live in the South again. She was raised in Nashville and I live in Arkansas, NC and attended grad school in SC and later worked in SC for 5 years. There’s some great people there, but the reprehensible conservatives have driven us out for good. That and the 110% humidity all summer…
Niether of us was born in the South, but lived in various parts enough to understand a lot of the culture there. We’ll take the western conservatives over the southern ones any day of the week (but especially on Sundays).
beliebert
I actually took the time to read most of this drivAl ball juice Doug just posted and wholy fuk where to begin.
“with no end in sight..unless Republicans find a way to do better among non-white voters.”
Seeing as how you claim to know how politics and the electorate work you should know that voters have notoriously short memories.
All Republicans have to do is trot out Rand Paul to say something populist like “I don’t like Drones” and the idiot sheeple like wr0ng [email protected] Cole will eat it up. Or like when Christie rolled up his sleeves and said “I gotta take care of my state and work with whoever I need to including Obama” and again morons like Cole just ate it up. You can always count on sheeple like Cole to do what you want when you want by just telling him what he wants to hear.
Joel
@eric: In other words, Salafists.
Joel
@Stooleo: c/o Vanderbilt, UT-A, Emory.
You forgot Raleigh-Durham, Houston, etc.
rp
@raven: did I dispute either of those points?
johnny aquitard
@BGinCHI: Yup but they won’t call it by either name.