I’ll admit I thought Rick ‘Sanctimonious’ Santorum was going to be The One for 2016’s spite voters, but it looks like the fickle bastids are already wooing a new head-turner. Dave Weigel reports from last weekend’s “FAMiLY Leader” Iowa unbeauty contest:
… The way social conservative see it, they’ve blown two consecutive primaries to a moderate candidate—one who’s gone on to lose the presidency. Iowa’s supposed to be the Thunderdome that boosts one of their own. In 2012, a majority (57 percent) of caucus-goers were evangelical Christians and a plurality (47 percent) considered themselves “very conservative.” They split their votes and gave the narrowest of mandates to Rick Santorum, and that was two weeks after the FAMiLY Leader endorsed him. What could have happened had the rest of the movement been quicker on the draw. Could they have avoided the distractions of Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich?
They want to find out. That’s what’s driving the presidential talk around Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who arrived in his first elective office this past January. Jamie Johnson, who’d been Rick Santorum’s coalitions director in Iowa, tells me that Barack Obama “changed the game” in 2008 and proved that someone with just a little time in D.C. could win. “He was in for one year and he was already laying the groundwork.” This is why he’s switched from Santorum to Cruz, who doesn’t have “10 years of votes to apologize for.”…
Cruz, who has already cracked double digits in the ridiculously early polls of caucus-goers, takes the afternoon of the summit with a neat trick that outsources the negativity. His father, Rafael, a Cuban-born pastor, precedes him with a speech that’s one-third about his son and two-thirds about how candidates who promise “hope and change” are paving the road to serfdom. “In 1976 I was shocked when I saw a government starting to implement socialist policies in this country, which perhaps the majority of this country didn’t recognize,” he says. “Having seen socialism at work, I clearly recognized the socialist policies of Jimmy Carter.”
It’s a hit. More than one activist tells me that the senior Cruz’s story takes away an advantage that has belonged to Marco Rubio—the crowd-pleasing parable of Obama as Castro. After a short break, Ted Cruz himself arrives, walking back and forth across the stage in black ostrich-skin cowboy boots, delivering old jokes about the root words of “politics” being “poly” and “ticks” before getting to applause line after applause line about his battles in Washington.
“The American people want to secure the borders first,” he says, to applause. “We want to welcome and celebrate legal immigrants.” Applause. “And there is no more forceful advocate for securing the borders than Iowa’s own Steve King.” Yet more applause. Cruz doesn’t actually mention any “social issues.” He invites the audience to join a “grass-roots army” (and his PAC) and adds that he has objects “thrown at me” when he talks about defunding Obamacare in the Senate….
Another sign of Cruz’s attraction for the wingnuts: I’m already seeing comments on news sites along the lines of “Since you lie-brals wouldn’t allow anyone to question Obama’s birth status, it would be totally hypocritical for you to say anything about Our Ted being born in Canada, since his mom was at least as all-American as that teenage Dunham slut.”
Baud
What’s the point? Cruz is already here.
Anya
Fuck Ted Cruz and his hateful father.
Now, let’s talk about Bill de Blasio.
Anya
@Baud: He didn’t say anything about securing the Florida coast.
greennotGreen
Thank god for FAMiLY Leader! They distract the rest of the country from the embarrassment that is the Tennessee Legislature (and judiciary!). If Iowa and North Carolina keep it up, we Tennesseans may yet be able to identify ourselves in public without the accompaniment of derisive laughter.
Pogonip
Maybe they could run Vladimir Putin?
I don’t think today’s conservatives are very conservative at all. I’m middling conservative myself on some issues, and those Tea Party types seem quite radical to me. (Also quite stupid, but that’s another issue.)
Violet
I hope Democrats do not underestimate Ted Cruz. He’s smart and he’s crazy. He’s just as bad as Santorum but he knows how to sound plausible.
Anoniminous
The FSM doesn’t love me enough to extend the Noodly Appendages and make Cruz the GOP presidential candidate in 2016.
Baud
I have difficulty seeing how whatever Cruz is selling stays marketable in 2016.
Pogonip
@efgoldman: I don’t think these guys would have liked the real Wallace. He was poor for most of his life.
the Conster
@efgoldman:
At some point soon, the far right becomes the far left as spectrums are wont to do. I wonder if that’s peak wingnut.
schrodinger's cat
@Violet: Sarah Palin in a suit?
ETA: Actually make it Bachmann, he has the same crazy eyes and is a lawyer.
Suffern ACE
So he’s going to run on one line zingers.
And what votes did Santorum have to apologize for?
Suffern ACE
@Violet: nah. Nah with Hillary as standard bearer. Her team would never underestimate a novice senator.
Baud
@Suffern ACE:
I recall Santorum got in trouble during the primaries because he voted for something most other Republicans voted for, but that has since become unpopular. Can’t recall the specific vote.
raven
@Suffern ACE: OOOOOOOOO. . . .that be cold.
Josie
@Violet: You are right – smart and crazy., but have you actually listened to him talk? It’s like fingernails on a blackboard. Texas is a huge state with really expensive media buys. People didn’t actually have to listen to his voice very much. If he runs for president, he will have to debate, and then he will be in trouble, not for lack of debating skills, but just for sounding like that guy that ran for student body president that everyone hated.
Suffern ACE
Ummm. The fact that you were distracted by a scoundrel like Gingrich kind of makes me think you’ll be distracted by any number of things.
Citizen_X
@efgoldman:
Wha…
gick
b:@8H>{¥n
Me sorry. Brane kersploded.
Xecky Gilchrist
Barack Obama “changed the game” in 2008 and proved that someone with just a little time in D.C. could win
Didn’t Clinton win after no time in D.C.? And what about Carter? And Reagan?
Xecky Gilchrist
@Suffern ACE: The fact that you were distracted by a scoundrel like Gingrich kind of makes me think you’ll be distracted by any number of things.
Bingo. Wingnuts thinking they have their 2016 pick now is absurd – their heroes can go from being God to being Satan – or unpersons, like GWB – in a heartbeat.
raven
@efgoldman: You’re killin me over here!
SatanicPanic
The worst is going to be all the stupid puns “Ted CRUZES to a victory in Iowa” “It’s like a CARNIVAL at campaign headquarters tonight”
Baud
@SatanicPanic:
His campaign’s on CRUZ CONTROL!!!
hildebrand
@Josie: Cruz is not one of those dishes that gets better with age. His shtick is always mean-spirited. Anger, venom, and bitterness (to go with the nasal whine) will not bring a lot of folks into the fold.
The other bit in all of this is something I still don’t think the Republicans have learned – Obama won because he out-organized everyone. Inchoate rage cannot sustain a campaign for three years.
Heliopause
One thing I find encouraging is that in the last few pre-pre-election cycles there was an obvious “moderate” or “business” Republican or two to focus on, but this time it’s, who? Who is the next Dole/W/Romney/Rudy/McCain? The closest right now is Rubio, or am I missing somebody? So our common dream of having the craziest GOP election cycle ever might finally be in reach.
Baud
@Heliopause:
Probably Scott Walker (recognize we’re grading on a curve here).
hildebrand
@Heliopause: Christie
Suffern ACE
So the plan is to win Iowa and take the momentum from there. How is this different from every other underdog who drops out by March 15.
SatanicPanic
I’m calling it even earlier this cycle- Democrats will keep the White House. Republicans should just give up now. It’s in the fridge.
Sad_Dem
@Suffern ACE: “So he’s going to run on one line zingers.” Worked for Ronnie!
PurpleGirl
@Anya: Of course they won’t say anything about securing the Florida coast — that would work against the Cubans. They might not like Haitians to come in by way of Florida, but it must stay relatively open for the Cubans.
srv
MAGNA Cum Laude from Harvard Law, and Law Review editor.
There used to be a time when that was impressive and all that was required.
People are angry, and they’ll be even more angry in 2016. The Southern Strategy lives.
Anoniminous
@efgoldman:
From your link. A typical quote:
Laughing so hard my stomach hurts.
Jeremy
@Xecky Gilchrist: They just don’t get it. They keep on buying into this nonsense that it was Obama’s few years in D.C. that was his advantage or the Data Mining that did it alone. The candidate and the policies are the difference but they will never get it.
Josie
@hildebrand: This is so true. Obama’s people studied the primary voting systems in all the states and planned their organizing to fit. It took a lot of forethought and brains to pull it off. They did the same sort of study for the general. I don’t think any Republican candidate has those abilities. Mrs. Clinton will have the benefit of this study and organization since she will be using some of Obama’s people. It should give her quite a lift.
Cruz’s angry white man approach will net him the same 27% every other Republican gets. It’s not enough.
Roger Moore
@Suffern ACE:
Squirrel!
SatanicPanic
@Baud: Oh that one will be used. Santorum might even try to bust that out in a debate.
Baud
@Jeremy:
The GOP feels they can market themselves out of any problem, but they just haven’t found the right message yet. Can’t blame them entirely — their marketing worked fairly well in the pre-Internet days.
hildebrand
@Sad_Dem: What Reagan had, that none of these knaves can ever hope to manufacture, is that damned sunny optimism for the grand ‘city on the hill’. He had a narrative that was full of hope and all of the other gooey pablum that the media and the ‘real’ folks just absolutely adore. Granted, it was all canned nonsense, but he could sell it, and people bought it. People need to think that tomorrow is going to be a better day – the current crop of Republicans just can’t put together a campaign that isn’t loaded with bitter resentfulness.
Mitt lost to a beatable Obama this year because he could never put together a message that had any hint of uplift or hope. He lost because hate and bitterness can only go so far in a presidential election – people want to feel good about the person they are voting for. If one of these chumps can figure that out, then I will be worried.
raven
San Diego Hooters bans the mayor:
“The signs note that the mayor “will not be served in this establishment” and “We believe women should be treated with respect.”
Kay (not the front-pager)
@Baud: Medicare part D, prescription drug coverage (among other formerly bipartisan things, like raising the debt limit).
wonkie
@Suffern ACE: Hilary Clinton is a wonderful woman, but I have noit confidence that she would put together a good team. Look at the team she put together for the primary contest against Obama: she lost the priimary because of them. Maybe her judgement has improved, but i am really afraid of her tendency to surround herself and seek advice from hacks.
Kay (not the front-pager)
@Baud: He voted for Medicare part D, prescription drug coverage (among other formerly bipartisan things, like raising the debt limit).
Warren Terra
I mean, sure, obviously Jimmy Carter is the biggest commie in the history of the world, but even more impressively in 1976 he was just the Governor of Georgia.
It’s almost like Cruz’s daddy is full of crap.
Roger Moore
@efgoldman:
Wow. That place is great evidence for Poe’s Law.
Baud
@Kay (not the front-pager):
Yeah, that’s right. No wonder GOP primary voters went with the grandfather of Obamacare instead.
NotMax
Moveable
feastpersonality cult.Warren Terra
Sigh. Quote Cruz’s daddy, get moderated for forgetting a certain economic philosophy shares a series of letters with the name of a pill for your John Thomas.
Litlebritdifrnt
@hildebrand:
What you said with sprinkles on top, his boots on the ground campaign was absolutely stellar. It was impressive here in May for the primaries but when it came to the general in October and beyond it was absolutely unbelievably impressive. His paid operative here (who worked out of our donated office and was one of his students at Chicago school of law) literally worked all hours of the day and night, he slept on the couch here at the office rather than spend silly money on a motel room, he took showers at volunteers houses. He organized phone banks that would show up at my office at 2pm on any given day and those ladies (for the most part) started making phone calls and didn’t stop until we told them to go home at midnight. My boss probably donated more money in pizza for the phone bankers than most people do in real contributions. This guy (Jason) managed to organize an absolute Army of people here in my totally red county that he knew he was going to lose, but the larger goal was the state, and in 2008 we turned it Blue.
raven
@Litlebritdifrnt: Hey, how’s the family?
Chris
I called it back before 2012 – that if the Republicans lost two elections in a row with a candidate they considered a “RINO”/moderate/liberal heading the ticket, we’d be lucky if the 2016 candidate didn’t campaign with burning crosses and white sheets. Looks like they agree.
MattF
I agree that Cruz is dangerous, but I also think he’s eminently beatable. Remember, before Cruz actually arrived in Washington, right-wing media already loved him. Then the actual person showed up in the Senate. Given that the Senate is a freak show of poisonous personalities, and that Cruz has managed to make himself unpopular there, I think that just letting Cruz be himself and letting voters get to know him will do most of the job. He’s enamored with his own brilliance and he’s not used to losing.
raven
@efgoldman: I thought it was almost as funny as. . . .SQUIRREL!
Baud
@efgoldman:
Trolling sure isn’t.
Anne Laurie
@Heliopause:
Why, JEB!, of course. The Bush Crime Family figures two more years of mean fvcks and moronic blowhards clawing at each other, and John Ellis can saunter into the actual primaries as the Sensible Grownup candidate…
raven
@Baud: Hooters blackballs San Diego mayor
Litlebritdifrnt
Mum is cracking up the nurses in the cardio ward of the local hospital and totally kicking in the ass any idea that she was in any sort of trouble, they are going to replace one of her stents and reckon that she is going to be fine. I picked DH up from the Heart Center at New Hanover Regional today and he is home, chowing down on his favorite salad and waiting for his ham and cheese sandwich and fries. I on the other hand am absolutely exhausted seeing as after picking up the DH from the hospital I had to drive him to his school (another 50 miles) to pick up his car. I am not afraid of a drive but a four hour straight drive kicks my ass.
22over7
Sorry, I’m still trying to wrap my head around the William Wallace Caucus, which will counteract the far-left lean of the SC leg. Government as Cosplay.
I’m speechless, truly.
jl
I suppose the GOP primary will be a roller coaster again.
Cruz’ will be on top for awhile, but will mishandle to plate of poutine in New England, highlighting he is a furriner with a what kind of name!?
Then it will be sweatervest’s two weeks of front runner, or until the next poll come out.
Hope for Trump, who will be a good sub for Cain, unless he also jumps in to juice some product promo he’s started.
raven
@Litlebritdifrnt: Well, it sounds better than it did. Hang in there.
Lizzy L
I want to see Christie debate Cruz. Pleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleaseplease….
Baud
@raven:
I read that as “Hooters blue balls San Diego mayor.”
I was like, good! he deserves it.
MattF
@Anne Laurie: I think that three Bushes is just too many. But it’s possible– JEB! is probably the wiliest of the bunch.
ETA: Also, a Clinton vs. Bush election would keep all those bad thoughts about the past Bushes in full view. Republicans probably wouldn’t like that.
raven
@Baud: Not if that is what he wanted!
Litlebritdifrnt
@raven:
True. At this point I would happily kill a) my family in England who told me my Mum was on deaths door and b) Columbus County Medical Center ER who told me that my husband had a heart attack, neither of which was true. I know I aught to be grateful but at this point I really don’t think that the stress these people put me through was justified.
Baud
@efgoldman:
If you did something, I missed it.
raven
@Litlebritdifrnt: Look at it this way, what if they had told you the opposite and THAT wasn’t true.
? Martin
I’ve been telling you guys – watch out for Cruz. I don’t think he can pivot enough from the primary to the general to win, but that guy has real potential to win the primary.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Chris
@hildebrand:
Reagan also had two other things. One, a country that was whiter than it would be for any of his successors (changing demographics will do that). Two, he was the first Gilded Ager to set foot in the White House since Herbert Hoover. By the time Reagan ran for office, the American public had had half a century to forget how disastrous those economics were and to learn to take the New Deal’s reforms for granted; the “trickle down” snake oil he was peddling sounded fresh, new and hopeful. That’s a trick no one after him was going to be able to pull off again. Now, trickle down economics have a record thirty three years later, and it’s a record of things going from bad to worse.
Jeremy
@Litlebritdifrnt: This is something the current republicans will never be able to replicate. No one wants to volunteer for a racist party that only promotes tax cuts and deregulation for the rich. They lack charismatic candidates like Obama and they only have fake AstroTurf “grassroots” movements.
Roger Moore
@22over7:
After 4 years of the Tea Party, you ought to be used to it.
Anoniminous
This far out the polls are almost, but not entirely, meaningless. PPP has:
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@? Martin: Cruz strikes me as a far more likely nominee than Rand Paul, but still a longshot, and that Christie-Cruz debate? Reminds of the big horn rams connecting with a sound, if Marlin Perkins can be believed, can be heard for miles around
Baud
@Chris:
Reagan also faced a Democratic Party that really was is disarray.
MattF
@Anoniminous: I suppose ‘beauty show’ numbers aren’t completely meaningless. But that raises an image of Christie in a bikini, and I’m sure I don wanna go there.
Litlebritdifrnt
@raven:
I love how you can take a negative and make it into a positive. You are right of course. I should just shut up and be grateful that the opposite was true. I am still thinking of going postal on the person at Columbus County Medical Center who misread the EKG and told me my husband was having a heart attack. I am actually more concerned about the fact that their misreading of the EKG caused me to sustain the co-pay for a $15,000 airlift to another hospital, when at arrival at said hospital the cardiologist said “meh” he is fine. At what point do we actually fight back and say “you know this is price gouging”
Yatsuno
@Anne Laurie: That is Bab’s plan, which is why she is keeping JEB!! and the brown ones well out of sight. Though he just put his foot in it getting into a public squabble with Matt Damon.
gene108
The deductive transitive transpositional reflective logic is sound. Because Ted Cruz was born in Canada does not prove Obama was not born in Kenya like we have conclusively proven.
Also, too how can you trust Obama? He doesn’t even remember where he was born! He has to rely on newspaper clippings as “proof”.
hildebrand
@Chris: Indeed. Reagan knew he had a good chance because of great timing – but he still needed to dress up all of that foolishness in a narrative and with the glowing rhetoric that would make people want to vote for that crap. He sold that happy-talk knavishness with great flair. None of the snarling jackals that are circling the idea of a campaign right now are within light years of doing what Reagan did. They may have the infinitely harder sales job because of the last thirty years, but they are absolutely hamstringing themselves with their frothing hatred and bitterness. It won’t work. People, at the end of the day, want to vote for something positive. Reagan knew that – these clowns haven’t a clue. When one of these chuckleheads starts to put together a heart-warming, positive spin on their viciousness, then we can start to worry.
Anoniminous
@MattF:
Ack! Ack!
BRAIN BLEACH! BRAIN BLEACH!
Jeremy
Jeb is polling very low in a number of polls for a guy with the Bush name. I don’t see Jeb getting the nomination and I could see him taking a pass on 2016. When W Bush was planning on running in 2000 he was the frontrunner.
David Koch
Serious question: does anyone like corey B00ker?
ankh hotep
Almost as tough as cracking the Da Vinci Code, but I think I’ve figured out what Noonan was prattling on about with her Hillary fantasy column last week:
Ugly duckling suffers much, finds her voice, leads.
Suburban basement party, 1963.
The other girls dance to the Shirelles.
Marriage. Elections. First lady of Arkansas.
Defeat, retreat, mascara.
Rope-a-dope Newt, Contract With America nuts.
Scandal, horror, rage, slap!
Out of office, back in office, baby Chelsea.
Travel, speeches, statements, everything’s changed!
Yep, it’s right there plain as day. Peggy has just discovered the lost verses to ‘We Didn’t Start The Fire.’ Somebody call Billy Joel!
Anoniminous
@Jeremy:
Out of all the Parade of Fail in the PPP poll the only one I see getting the nod from the Corporate Wing of the GOP is Jeb. That gets air time during the primary and theoretically sufficient local organization. If a faction fight breaks out in the GOP all bets are off.
PaulW
If we moderates are going to be attacking Cruz, it won’t be over his birth certificate, it’s gonna be over the fact that he’s batshit crazy.
Chris
@David Koch:
I don’t know enough to really judge, but I for one have been turned off by him ever since I’ve seen commercials where he and Christie were being buddy-buddy. I admit, that may be as stupid on my part as when Republicans call Christie a communist for being friendly to Obama during the storm.
PaulW
@Anoniminous:
Right now, I can’t even see Jeb winning his own state of Florida right now. Rick “F-ck Florida” Scott is currently ruining the GOP brand from the inside. Jeb’s education “reforms” have taken a huge hit with the public revelation that the whole thing is a cheat. Also, he’s got this huge problem of sharing a last name with the most incompetent President in modern history. The party leaders may love him but the voters won’t.
David Koch
@PaulW: Dems won’t attack Cruz over his birth certificate, but he will be attacked and it will come the famously looney alex-jones-lovin Paultards.
fuckwit
@efgoldman: Reagan also had that optimism and positivity schtick– his policies were horribly mean-spirited (read J.G. Ballard’s “Why I Want to Fuck Ronald Reagan”) but he projected this air of happiness and pride and, quite frankly, hope– that is how he sold a lot of people, that was his “teflon”. I noticed that Clinton and Obama both adopted that look-to-the-future Morning-in-America positivity tone from Reagan, in huge amounts (and Obama does Reagan shout-outs constantly to acknowledge that), and I think it has a lot to do with why they won. I haven’t seen that in an R since; I think Reagan was an anomaly. Nixon was a deeply dislikable and a crooked motherfucker, but I recently watched his resignation speech and I recommend watching it. He first of all was smart, and secondly he sounded like a Democrat, all about peace and nuclear disarmament and economic stability and actual long-term public policy discussions… in his RESIGNATION speech! Weird. As Dole said “Nixon had ideas”, and that’s why he’d never survive the modern GOP; I don’t think anyone on the R side these days could come close now even if they wanted to– all they have taken away is Nixon’s ruthlessness and vindictiveness but none of his actual smarts or policies.
That party is toast. It’s a regional rump party, as Kos likes to say, or the Confederate Party as Cole likes to say, populated with a weird mix of the 1%, teabaggers, glibertarians, fundamentalists, warmongers, and racist white-supremacist dead-enders still fighting Antioch and Shiloh. They’re incapable of governing, and will soon be incapable of winning elections too. Stick a fork in it. Better yet, let’s hurry it as far along towards irrelevance as possible in 2014.
Mary G
@Litlebritdifrnt: Glad Mum and DH are doing so much better than expected, and sorry those people put you through so much.
PaulW
@raven:
When Hooters is telling you that you’re derogatory to women, it’s a sign from God that she wants you to ship off to a monastery and not mess with the rest of humanity for the rest of your sad little life.
Suffern ACE
@PaulW: they are doing their best to make people hate the Obama years of creeping socialist race riots (it’s the worst of the sixties and seventies) that they long for Bush year normalcy where men were men, and Iraq was a major source of income to contractors.
Suzanne
@? Martin: I can see Cruz losing his temper under the stress of a campaign. The 47% comments will seem gracious and politic in comparison. I think that’s his biggest Achilles heel. Christie has done a little bit of jiujitsu with that particular aspect of his personality that makes a potential angry outburst read as passionate. But Cruz has no such way to play that off.
David Koch
@efgoldman: President Obama is one of only two persons to ever take the oath of office 4 times. While Mittens is the only person to ever simultaneously lose 4 home states (Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, California)
gene108
@David Koch:
If I had a choice between Booker or Holt, I’d go with Holt. Between Booker and Republican, I’d go with Booker.
What frustrates me with Booker is there’s no real reason for him to not be more openly liberal with his policies. This isn’t Harold Ford, Jr. trying to win in Tennessee. The people who support him want a liberal candidate and not a moderate Democrat.
PaulW
@David Koch:
If Cruz becomes the GOP candidate for 2016, considering the field he’ll be exiting from, there’s gonna be a lot of bashing the whole party for being batshit crazy. Cruz offers absolutely nothing that would appeal to anyone outside of the 27 percent Far Right faction, and any attempt for him to shift into a centrist moderate tone for the general election is gonna be painful to watch.
Capt. Seaweed
Why am I reading this? Why do I care? I’m not, and I don’t.
The Iowa Caucus in 2016 is in about 1000 days. I got plenty of time to read about it starting, oh say around Xmas 2015.
PaulW
@Suffern ACE:
Are they gonna make people forget the Bush The Lesser Years “Normalcy” that led to such wonderful things as “No WMDs Found”, Hurricane Katrina, and the start of the Great Recession?
The Republicans are deluding themselves if they think a majority of Americans will think back on 2001-2008 with any kindness. If they think they can make a majority hate the Obama years, they’re overlooking the fact that Obama is still polling more favorably than the entire Republican party lineup, especially Congress (which is getting outpolled by certain diseases for God’s sake).
Heliopause
@Anne Laurie:
Yeah, I’ve always discounted Jeb because his brother and father are compelling personalities by comparison. But now that I think of it he’s probably no worse than Romney in that regard.
The other “moderate” choice would be Christie but he’s got some huge (pardon the expression) problems with a national GOP electorate. So Jeb it is. So far.
gene108
@fuckwit:
Reagan also wanted to rid the world of nukes. Reagan championed the Senate to ratify the U.N. Convention Against Torture.
Reagan rode a perfect storm of a relatively turbulent economy, in the 1970’s, which saw the Phillips curve skewered by stagflation and a real confusion on the part of the establishment economists on how to respond to both curbing inflation and improving economic growth.
There was also a very real rise in crime rates that got people worried about the future, as well as lingering butthurt over Vietnam and the distrust of government because of Watergate.
Reagan gave both a positive vision for the future that was an improvement over the relatively bleak present of the late 1970’s, where things seemed to be getting worse and not better.
Also, too even Bush, Jr. in 2000 was about restoring “honor and integrity” to the White House and “compassionate conservatism” and not just openly calling for tax cuts to the rich so they can become more rich, i.e. even Bush, Jr. talked about a positive vision for the future in 2000 for most Americans.
David Koch
I think a more interesting question is who will be Hillary’s Veep.
do you balance the ticket with a latino or african-american to continue the high turnout of minorities and youth or do you double down with an all female ticket?
mai naem
I wouldn’t be surprised is Scott Walker wins the primary. He looks so benign but has accomplished a lot for his paymasters in Wisconsin.
My gaydar screams when I see Ted Cruz. I couldn’t care less about the ghey but there is no way the gop would vote a gay person.
Rand seems very good at word salad which will help him but he just comes across as a lightweight.
Chris Christie has been impressing me recently but I don’t know how long the angry young put upon man going places shtick is going to last. I can see him losing his temper and being portrayed as a bully by the media.
Suffern ACE
@mai naem:
Unfortunately, he’s the type of guy they like to be bullied by.
TG Chicago
So hope and change are bad things? Ooookay…
Cruz in 2016! Despair, monotony, and FREEDOM!!!!
? Martin
@efgoldman: I know Cruz looks like a loose cannon, and maybe I’m misreading this, but he strikes me as very cautious and calculating. He’s kept himself in the news more than any other freshman member of Congress, including Warren. Now, he often gets in the news for what appear to be bonkers reasons, but he’s saying precisely what the base wants to hear – even if half of it is complete bullshit. And I think Cruz knows it’s bullshit and that he won’t be penalized for that.
I’m not aware of any mistake he’s made so far with GOP voters. He won a seat he wasn’t supposed to win. He’s moved the debate on the right regarding shutdown and Obamacare that GOP leaders are trying to contain. He’s not bad at this.
Citizen_X
@Jeremy:
Why, is he polling in double-digit negative numbers? Because if a Bush is not, they’re doing far too well by my lights.
Gravenstone
I’ve spoken here in the past about my friend Karen and the health challenges she’d faced since the birth of her daughter. Sadly, she lost her battle a couple of weeks ago. Today, her local paper published a nice story about the struggles which ultimately took her life. She was a dear and special young woman, who will be terribly missed. I just hope the work that will follow can offer insight and help others who might be dealing with clotting disorders.
mai naem(mobile)
@Suffern ACE: I mean christie going off on a voter not a reporter or some media flack.also the media love destroying somebody they’ve built up. The media at some point will have a go at Christie.
, I’m surprised that brian sandoval and Susanna Martinez don’t get mentioned. They’re both governors for crying out loud.
sparky
Reagan had Iran. Man, Americans have a short attention span. And why are we talking about 2016 for fucksake?
GregB
Cruz has an ace in the hole with the big money boys. His wife works for Goldman-Sachs.
There is already an ad with him running in NH.
He’s a calculating and crafty feller and I bet he’s going to be the GOP’s answer to the immigration issue.
I am looking forward to Cruz and Christie knocking the shit out of each other. They are both as mean as the day is long.
lurker dean
@Gravenstone: that’s so sad :o(
Suffern ACE
@GregB: I feel for New Hampshireites and Iowans now that the campaign season never ends. I’m also glad that I am in the most expensive media market so I never see ads unless they are on National TV.
Then again, they brought this on themselves by demanding to be first and incessessantly pandered two by these obnoxious politicians.
Belafon
@sparky: Because we have a short attention span. “I’m bored. Obama was so last January. I want a new shiny object.”
Suffern ACE
@mai naem(mobile): He can choose his reporter carefully. Someone asking him a gotcha about a liberal issue like abortion or gay rights and they’ll love him for it. The press will punch its own percieved hippies.
ruemara
@Litlebritdifrnt: Great news!
Also where’s Iamh36? I need to know if Lafayette, Louisiana is a decent place.
Fluke bucket
@hildebrand:
Anger, venom, and bitterness (to go with the nasal whine)…damn, that sounds like Mark Levin
Rob Lll
@Gravenstone:
How awful. Sincere condolences. :(
hamletta
@Gravenstone: I’m so sorry for your loss.
It’s so sad when our bodies, which are so amazing, turn on us like that.
Godspeed to the researchers who are studying the disorder.
lol
@wonkie:
It’s an interesting thing going on here right now. HRC knows she needs to not use the same senior staff as last time or people will lose confidence in her campaign. Hence, the importation of key Obama folks. Her old staff are gearing up to run/fund various SuperPACs.
David Koch
This Q poll is fascinating. The run-off could be de Blasio vs Thompson. This would be the most interesting race in 70 years.
Whistle-blower Sydney Leathers has turned into an unsung hero.
FlipYrWhig
@? Martin: Cruz doesn’t know it’s bullshit. He’s crazy and creepy and terribly proud of himself and has been since at least 1988, and apparently his Dad made him that way.
karen
@Chris:
Give it time.
Yatsuno
@ruemara: There’s a decent sized university there, so that’s a positive. Negative: Piyush as your governour.
karen
1. Christie is the real threat if he’s the GOP candidate because a lot of Democrats like him and rich ones may fund his campaign. His actions during Sandy – overblown or not made him a favorite, which I guess makes him too liberal for the GOP. But he’d be a real candidate to worry about.
2. Ted Cruz has burned a lot of bridges. The GOP will support his candidacy whole heartedly of course as they will Rand Paul, but the neo-cons are really beginning to get angry at the nationalists. I hope the GOP splits right down the middle.
Patricia Kayden
@Violet: To sound plausible to who? He only appeals to White voters and Repubs already get the majority of that group.
Patricia Kayden
@David Koch: A Latino vice president would be good for Secretary Clinton. Sorry to say that I cannot imagine an all-female ticket, and not sure an AA vice president is necessary after President Obama.
Ramalama
No one has mentioned the 900 pound elephant in the room so I’ll have to do it: Cruz just came out of the closet as a poly guy. Dan Savage does not even have to get involved with this campaign.
MomSense
@wonkie:
I don’t know, she is tough. This is a woman who went into war zones while first lady and ran across a tarmac under sniper fire.
Full Metal Wingnut
@Violet: Wasn’t Cruz born in Canada? Maybe one of his parents was American.
We should birther him.
Full Metal Wingnut
@karen: God I have so many *idiot* liberal acquaintances who are either charmed by Christie or don’t think he’s that bad. One of them has a daughter in the NJ public school system! Oblivious moron!
Full Metal Wingnut
@David Koch: speaking of New York candidates named Thompson, anyone else live in brooklyn? What do you guys think-is Hynes going down?
Full Metal Wingnut
@David Koch: Honestly? If Weiner had won the nomination I would’ve voted for Lhota. Seriously.
Maybe if Quinn won too. In a Quinn vs Lhota race, you’re voting for the past either way (Bloomberg vs Giuliani disciple). And Quinn is just a great case study in the limits of identity politics.
Full Metal Wingnut
@lol: If Clinton uses Mark Penn again I swear to god I’m voting Cuomo.
boatboy_srq
@Anoniminous: Well, the Cultural Revolution would seem to be awfully attractive to the Reichwing. Look how they treat biology/physics/chemistry/non-Xtian-literature/economics/history/art/music/philosophy/ethics/theology/you-name-it.
Woodrowfan
Heck, in 1976 he was an EX-Governor of Georgia.
captnkurt
@SatanicPanic:
Oh, you mean without modernities like electricity and overflowing with shit? Yeah, I guess a Cruz presidency may be Carnival Cruise-ish after all.
Wyatt Derp
Somebody who speaks wingnut explain this to me. Cruz is American born even though he was born in Canada because his mother was born in America. Obama is not American born because argle bargle Kenya even though his mother was born in America. What if your mother was born in another country and you were born in America? Are you American?
The simple fact is Obama was born in America and Cruz wasn’t. But then reality has a well known liberal bias.
phoebes-in-santa fe
@fuckwit: Unfortunately, you’re wrong about the Republicans being a “regional party”. They’re doing pretty damn well on the local and Congressional levels. And it’s mainly because we thought the job was done when we went to the polls and elected Obama in 2008. However, we failed to finish the job and stayed home in 2010 and allowed Republicans huge gains in local and Congressional races.
And, okay, we went back to the polls in 2012 and relected Obama, BUT we should have learned from our mistakes in 2010 and GOTV for 2014. Are we doing that – are we concentrating on that? No, we’re worried about a presidential race in 2016. What good does it do for Dems to win the White House if both houses of Congress are in Republican/TeaBaggers hands? Not a damn thing.
Let’s get to work with saving our Democratic-controlled Senate and winning a few more House seats. The House won’t be Democratic for years because we let it slip away in 2010. And we can’t depend on keeping or taking new seats just by relying on the Republicans nominating bat-shit crazy candidates.
Lawrence
I was really hoping for a Santorum/Ryan pinata for HRC to beat in 2016. But I read that Ricky is out of money. Ryan has the Stench of Defeat all over him. And no amount of P90x will make him not look like Eddie Munster in a suit that doesn’t fit. That and Congress is finding out how radioactive his budget really is. It’s a long way off, but I think we are going to get new clowns for the old car. I will miss that dopey pizza bastard Herman Cain, as he flamed out too soon for the inevitable “Cain Is Able” signs to get printed.
I Heart Breitbartbees
@Ramalama: I’m sorry. What was that about Ted Cruz and poly? I missed that.
I Heart Breitbartbees
@Wyatt Derp: Wyatt, you’re honestly expecting consistency from the Teahadists? Where have you been the last five years? They certainly didn’t complain about McWifeswap in 2008, and he was born in the Panama Canal Zone. Exactly what constitutes a natural-born citizen has never been litigated, but I’ve read analysis that indicates Cruz would pass because of his American parents, just like Obama did by virtue of his mother AND the fact he was born in Hawaii.
dww44
@schrodinger’s cat: Exactly, but with a heck of a lot more smarts. He apparently didn’t fall far from the tree and, imo, he’s very very dangerous.
dww44
@Warren Terra: Well he is, as is all the rest of them. Too many years watching Fox has wiped their brains clean of any ability to discern anything from the facts at hand.
Matt McIrvin
@I Heart Breitbartbees: That Congressional Research Service document I linked to a while back summed it up pretty clearly. There’s no non-laughable precedent for “natural-born citizen” meaning anything other than “citizen by reason of birth,” and, furthermore, the legal presumption in cases of eligibility for public office has always been on the side of eligibility: anyone who says a presidential candidate is not a natural-born citizen is going to have to prove it, not just demand proof to the contrary.
I’m pretty sure Ted Cruz’s mother would have satisfied all the residency requirements for automatic citizenship of her children (there was some question whether this would have been the case for Ann Dunham, but it was moot because Obama was born in the US). Ted Cruz is a natural-born citizen, regardless of where he was born.