Tuesday is Election Day and I’ll be following the results on the school bond issue I’ve been helping with here. I’ve been working primarily with two younger women – one is the head of the Young Republicans, a stay-at-home mom and school volunteer and the other is a young woman who was the volunteer coordinator for our local Obama effort in 2012.
The (mostly) Republicans on the bond committee approached me and asked me to help and I then asked the Obama volunteer, Amanda, for help. She was generous enough to agree and she’s put together all of the information we’ve collected canvassing so we have a list of “yes” voters for GOTV on election day. Amanda is a single mom, her son is 9 years old, and he attends the public school that will benefit most from the bond issue. She went from agreeing to help because I called her and begged her to taking this whole thing very personally and emailing me every 4 minutes with completely speculative “updates” on what she overheard at McDonalds or whatever.
I don’t have any sense of how it’s going to go. We have a mayoral race that is on the ballot so that might generate some turnout, but our mayoral races are non-partisan and we have a “weak mayor” structure where the city council has all of the power so it doesn’t matter who wins that, really. I voted for the incumbent because I like him personally. He canvassed my house yesterday. After I told him I already voted for him he asked me how I think the school bond will go and I told him I don’t know. Republicans here over-rate my political predicting abilities, generally, after they all thought Obama would lose in 2008 and then again in 2012 and I told them he would win, so the mayor asked in a pleading way, hoping for good news or thinking I was going to pull some ACORN magic out of my hat. He then said with real certainty “it will be close” in this sort of grim way, and maybe he’s right.
The unofficial count on local races and issues here are announced in the entry area of the courthouse, so people who are candidates or otherwise very invested in the results gather at the courthouse and wait for the Board of Elections member to arrive and read the vote totals. This count will be quick because they’re only tallying about 5000 votes. I don’t go as a general rule, and I probably won’t go this time either because the GOTV will be run out of my house and it’s unlikely I’m putting my shoes back on once I’m back at my house after the polls close.
What races are you watching?
This is a pretty good preview of state and local races one might want to watch.
Corner Stone
If the SNAFUs in TX early voting are any indication, get ready to hear a lot more about the TX Voter ID law in the coming months.
No reported data to point to yet (that I am aware of), but from the anecdotes I’m hearing from across the political spectrum, it’s going to be a real mess, and hard for the R’s to just gloss over.
This is a very low voter turnout event and I’m already hearing dozens of denials and other issues.
Lyrebird
I tossed three pizzas’ worth of change over to the McCauliffe (sp?) campaign (aka the Dear FSM Not Cuccinelli campaign) in Virginia. Hoping for a big D win with lots of coattail effects.
gnomedad
Title FTW.
Kay
@Corner Stone:
Thanks so much. I haven’t followed it at all other than the various legal challenges. We need a big knock down drag out fight after the VRA was gutted, IMO, to put people on notice as to what’s going on.
Kay
@Lyrebird:
You almost feel sorry for Terry M. Everything I’ve read has been “he would have LOST except for the Tea Party“. The coverage is so ungenerous. It’s like as negative as predicting a win could possibly be and still predict a win. Really must take some of the pleasure out of it.
FlipYrWhig
@Kay: My hunch is that McAuliffe will be better than expected, in part because he’s been greeted with such eye rolling and sneering even from his own party that he’ll be extra dedicated to being a steady hand and a public servant.
gene108
How big a margin Christie wins by and if Buono can keep Christie from getting more than 70% of the vote, I’ll call it a Democratic “win”.
Kay
@FlipYrWhig:
I have trouble with counterfactuals generally, so I always hate that analysis. It’s so easy to say “if the following things hadn’t happened, THIS would have happened”.
Oh, okay. Maybe, but maybe not. Really taking a lot of risk with your whole fantasy scenario there, buddy. Bold analysis!
Kay
@gene108:
I know you think Christie is formidable looking towards 2016, but I think Clinton beats Christie in NJ, PA AND Ohio, so we can just make that bet right now :)
I’m okay with him as the nominee. I think he’s the best they have, so will run.
ruemara
I’ve given up on reality and am fantasizing about Chris Christie losing. I don’t get why blue states pick these conservatives who govern as fucking conservative bastards. Ugh, the media adoration of that ugly fat bastard makes me hurl.
ralphb
@Corner Stone: The Texas Voter ID law snagged former Speaker Jim Wright. I’d say it’s gonna be a clusterfk to gloss over everything.
http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/11/02/5300503/voter-id-law-snags-former-house.html?rh=1
Kay
@ruemara:
They’re setting it up so they can say VA doesn’t matter because.. NJ! Even-steven! Must be exactly EVEN.
Although you’ll recall Obama’s Presidency was over when R’s won NJ and VA last time. Now when they win NJ it’s over, again.
Corner Stone
Chris Christie will not win the presidency in the 2016 election. He very well may be a strong candidate in the R primaries. But even if he makes it through to get the nom, he will not win the general election.
If Hillary, or Biden or any of another 3 potential candidates win the D nom, any/all of them would crush Christie in a national referendum.
Suffern ACE
@FlipYrWhig: all he really needs to do is stay clean for 4 years and not try to profit from his position. He’s a wealthy man, how hard can that be?
JPL
@Corner Stone: The debates should be interesting. We should have an contest guessing the number of times Christie gets bleeped on national tv.
Kay
@Corner Stone:
I’m encouraged because Republicans here think she will lose because of Benghazi. I don’t think anyone cared that much about Benghazi re: Clinton and they will care even less in 2016. They’re way off track again. This is a fantasy. It’s akin to saying Obama would lose in 2012 because of Fast and Furious, which they also thought was a HUGE issue.
Kay
@Corner Stone:
I mean, she may have real weaknesses, does, they all do, but Benghazi isn’t one of them. I hope they chase that for a year.
cmorenc
We too had a school bond issue up for recent election in Wake County, NC, and were nervous about its prospects for passage, since the local GOP had taken an official position opposing it and there were plenty of “vote NO” yard and road signs up around the area generally. Also, in my local GOP-leaning north Raleigh neighborhood, while there was only a relatively light sprinkling or bond issue signs, there were three ‘NO’ signs to every ‘YES’ sign, including a couple of neighbors in the extended street loop that’s equivalent to a very large “block” who are rock-ribbed Tea Party type Republicans.
FORTUNATELY, on election day the school bond issue handily passed by a far wider margin that I would have ever hoped for in the run-up to the election, in fact the margin was a decisive landslide by anyone’s measure. (Not only that, but the good guys&gals swept all five school board seats up for election this time, consolidating an even larger existing majority on the board including seats not up for election this rotation, a complete turnaround from the majority takeover of the school board the hard-core conservatives had managed to engineer three or four years ago.
The GOP opposition of my neighbors is a combination of sheer short-sighted skinflintiness toward taxation for any purpose beyond roads and police to control the “others”, and an ideological desire to greatly extend privatization of schooling (where not coincidentally, the share of the cost burden is allocated in far higher proportion to parents of school-age children, per-child than the sort of socialized community cost-spreading of children’s education in public schools).
shelly
Christie faces a tough road in the primaries simply cause he’s not ‘pure’ enough for the Tea Party. They STILL haven’t forgiven him for appearing with Obama after Hurricane Sandy and STILL believe he cost them the election. They’ll be pushing for the various nut-jobs like Cruz or Santorum. I mean, god forbid you should nominate a candidate that has a snowball’s chance in hell of winning a national election.
MikeJ
@Kay:
Except Christie is being reëlected and TerryMac is replacing a Republican. Not really even since it’s a Dem pickup.
Suffern ACE
County and village elections for me. Village is relatively easy as I kind of know the candidates. County will be messier. I wish the justice department would just indict the pols already so I would know which incumbents I’m supposed to throw out.
StringOnAStick
Colorado went to mail-in ballots this year, so I hope that means more voters and that helps to pass prop 66 to raise taxes to fund schools. We don’t have kids and it will cost us a big increase, but that’s only because we’re lucky in our income; of course we voted for it – good liberals!
CO is seriously underfunded for k-12 and nearly zero funded for higher ed, plus the old k-12 formula was district by district, so poor schools stayed poor or became even poorer. My fear is the non-liberal rich will keep their taxes lower and their local funding higher by voting against this measure. Like Kay, I don’t know how this is going to go.
Corner Stone
@ralphb: It’s funny, in the typical way, but I’ve been chiding the hell out R’s on my local message board about this nonsense. And a couple of them respond with BS like, “how do these people drive?” or “how do they cash their paycheck?”. Like the law just makes sense like that to them. Because they can’t for a second simply imagine that not everyone is exactly like them with two cars and a checking account and a paycheck and etc, etc. Just like their life.
I went back and forth laying the smackdown and then one post a very nutty conservative pipes up and smacks down a couple of the other R posters. He says, “My mom is 80 and does not drive after she could not renew her driver’s license last time. Social Security is direct deposit and if you have a debit card ID is almost never needed. A lot of people are going to have to find their way to the DPS to get the ID.”
And after that, miraculously, the other R’s shut up about it.
Baud
@Kay:
We should cast Christie’s reelection as a rejection of the tea party. Help to fan the GOP civil war, and then when Christie moves to the right for the primary, we can say he caved.
Baud
@Corner Stone:
It’s amazing how many conservatives love the DMV when it comes to the ability to vote.
Michael Bersin
There’s a health research sales tax which will invest in institutional health research people/infrastructure on the ballot in Jackson County, Missouri (including Kansas City). There’s serious money going into promoting it, with an opponent (yes, you read that right) spending significant money to oppose it because, supposedly, it doesn’t go far enough. There are quite a few television ads running in the Kansas City media market. Both sides have invested in direct mail, too. Turnout will probably be 15% or lower.
cmorenc
@Kay:
We progressives have our own set of issues which we think SHOULD naturally be more potently persuasive to the general electorate than they often prove to be, as well as our own firm beliefs that a substantial portion of the responsibility for failure of these matters to gain the traction they should lies with mainstream media’s flawed choice of priorities and framing of them. This is not at all to create any false equivalence on the merits of our issues versus theirs, but rather simply to make a process sort of comparison. FORTUNATELY, progressives seem at the moment to be better than conservatives at placing this disparity between what we think should be important to relatively less ideological middle-class folks and the extent of focus and priority they actually seem to give to these matters, but at the same time I don’t think we’re entirely wrong at blaming our flawed media for their responsible part in this.
Corner Stone
@Kay: At this point I am ambivalent on Hillary running again. But if some magical statistical/political miracle could happen, I’d love to see 4 or 5 female contenders for the D presidential nom.
Suffern ACE
I’ve also decided to say no to expanded casino gambling in New York. I hope to get thank yous from my friends in CT and NJ.
Geoduck
Here in WA state, Initiative 522 is the big issue, which would require labeling of genetically-modified foods. The Monsanto types are squealing like stuck pigs and piling on the anti money, but it appears to have ground roots support. Be interesting to see which way it goes.
PurpleGirl
Thinking back on the posting about Christie’s corrupt actions in the past — they don’t matter too much to many voters because the voters figure politicians are corrupt anyway. A politician may start as comfortable upper-middle income and become rich while in office. How else can they do that except by being corrupt in some manner? Democrats can get in trouble for corruption because they are Democrats, not because of the corruption.
Suffern ACE
I’ve also decided to say no to expanded cas eeI no gam bling in New York. I hope to get thank yous from my friends in CT and NJ.
gene108
@Kay:
I think Hillary would mop the floor with Christie, but every Democrat is expecting her to run. She’ll be 69 in 2016 and if for some reason her health breaks down, who will take her place?
I think a lot of voters jazzed about making history for the second time in 2016 and electing the first woman President ever.
If Hillary drops out and it is a battle of two middle aged white guys, I’m not sure Democratic enthusiasm won’t experience a let down? Then I think Christie will win NJ, make PA and DE into battle ground state.
I didn’t grow up in NJ. I moved here after college. I did most of growing up in Ann Arbor, MI and Cary / Raleigh, NC – though those towns maybe a bit more affluent / college educated than rest of those states – I do get something about regional differences in this country.
I also think the media will not emphasize Republican corruption. They seem to have the view, which I attribute to laziness, that it is up to the opposition to highlight corruption in the minds of voters and if the opposition cannot to it, than tough luck you lose. Why break a sweat and do real work, when you can just rehash right-wing talking points.
McCain was one of the Keating Five, Bush, Jr. had been bailed out of business deals with just as many dubious connections as the Clinton’s endured with Whitewater, but the media focused on Al Gore “inventing the internet” and Jeremiah Wright, because the right-wing media was pushing those stories, so being lazy they just went with the easy story to talk about.
The reason Romney’s shit stuck to him is because Obama had a $1 billion war chest on hand and could keep hammering Romney about his Bain Capital days.
I just think a lot of Democrats overestimate the margin of Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012. Republicans only need to peal off 3% to 4% of voters to win in 2016. Given the right circumstances, in three years, that is doable. In Ohio for example, Obama won 50.67% of the vote (per Wikipedia), while Romney got 47.69%. That margin of victory can be flipped.
The big issue facing any Republican in 2016, assuming the overreach continues, is if you can tie a national candidate to state-level and Congressional overreach, such as transvaginal ultrasounds and opposition to a minimum wage increase, you can create social and economic wedge issues to peal off would-be Republican voters and/or drive up Democratic turn out.
But for the most part the independent voters, who voted for Bush, Jr. in 2000 and 2004, got disillusioned with Republicans because of the Iraq War and various other screw ups and voted for Obama in 2008. I just think there’s enough noise about the NSA spying, drones and stagnant economy that they have not become locked into being life long Democratic voters; there’s a chance the right Republican can win their vote, if that candidate can distance himself from the craziness of the rest of the Republican party.
I think Christie has been saved from becoming Tom Corbett, by a Democratic legislature. NJ is far enough away from Virginia that Christie can distance himself from transvaginal ultrasounds.
I don’t think Christie can beat Hillary, but I think, if for some chance Hillary does not run, he can take down other potential Democratic contenders.
geg6
Nothing much happening here except some judicial races, which I hate. I don’t think judges should be elected and it makes no sense to even have elections for them because they are barred from any sort of campaigning or stands on issues that are a normal part of all other races. Usually, this would be a big election in Pittsburgh because of the mayor’s race. The Dem always wins, but there have been some good campaigns over the years. Not this year though. Bill Peduto is very popular and the Republican that was nominated is a Teabagging idiot who decided to move to Israel in the middle of the race, saying he didn’t understand why anyone would have a problem with that. Peduto has a huge war chest and is apparently going to hang onto it. He’s only run a few tv ads. I mean, how hard do you need to run against a guy who doesn’t live in the city or even the country anymore?
MikeJ
@Michael Bersin:
Sounds like the GM food labeling initiative here. Monsanto running ads saying you should vote against it because it doesn’t go far enough.
Anya
The New Jersey race makes my blood boil. A so-called blue state voting for a rightwing conservative governor who’s anti-choice, anti-union, anti-teachers, anti-poor, anti-gay rights and a colossal asshole. Basically, he’s Koch brothers’ dream candidate yet he will win in a landslide.
Kay
@Corner Stone:
Yeah, I know all the misgivings about her but the truth is she has really strong support here, so that’s where I get my impression of her strength. I say it because that’s what I see and hear. She’s also wildly popular among the state Party people, so that matters. She has a resilient quality of support that is not going away. Also, realistically, there are only two other choices under “women, Democrats”, Warren and Gillibrand, and I don’t think either one of them will run. I think Democrats (like Schumer) will try to “clear the field” for her but it won’t work and we’ll still have a real primary.
PurpleGirl
I haven’t been following any race very closely, even the NYC mayoral race. (I’m not sure Lhota should have talked about being MTA chairman; most people in the City hate the MTA.)
I do need to read the various propositions that will be on the ballot — especially the one on casino gambling. It is being pushed as extra money for education and I remember how the Lottery was pushed as “Extra” money for education and then became the source of most of the money for education in the state.
KG
@Geoduck: a similar initiative was on the ballot here in California. It ended up losing because it turned out it was really poorly written. There seemed to be no rhyme or reason as to what got labeled and what didn’t.
Kay
@gene108:
That might be part of it for the general election, but I think what people miss about Clinton is people feel they “know” her. I saw it again and again and again in 2008. It matters, because it’s tied to trust. They feel they know her because they have been following her career for years. I just cannot overstate the importance of that in a place like this. I think the “first woman” thing misses an important piece of the support.
Corner Stone
@ralphb: From that article on Jim Wright:
““I’ve read that this is the lowest early voter turnout in a long time and I wonder if this [ID requirement] is the cause. We’ve tried so hard to make voting easy, and now the Texas Legislature has made it harder by making you have a photo ID.”
gene108
@Corner Stone:
Biden ran for President in 1988 and didn’t get very far. He ran in 2008 and didn’t get very far.
I’m not sure why 2016 would be different.
He’s one of those guys, who has not been able to make the transition from formidable state office holder to national candidate.
I don’t know three other Democratic candidates, who would run in 2016. Hillary has sucked all the air out, with the expectation that she’ll run. She’s won over a lot of nay-sayers in the Democratic Party, by being Obama’s Sec of State.
This is my big worry about 2016 for the Democrats, so much attention if focused on Hillary that if she does not run, the Democrats may be caught flat footed, while the Republicans have been out campaigning for the past three years burnishing their national image.
MikeJ
@KG:
The antis claim that about this bill, but it’s just not true. The reason I decided to support it was that the pro side actually put the complete text of the bill up on their web site and the antis didn’t.
IowaOldLady
Mayoral race and some bond issues here. I’ll be watching VA, looking for problems in TX, and pretending NJ isn’t happening.
Johnnybuck
@shelly: If they lose the house in 2014, Christie will be the nominee.
Eric U.
does every web site have to have one of those ads that waits a second and then blanks out the screen? I hope they have site statistics that shows me closing the window while the ad shows.
We have a municipal election. I wish someone around here would print a sample ballot. The dems never recommend how you should vote on anything other than candidates. It seems to be the same for the republicans, I checked out of desperation. The county has a sample ballot for the 2012 election.
gene108
@Anya:
Makes me want to bitch slap the state Democratic party. A bunch of prominent state Dems have officially endorsed Christie’s re-election bid over his Democratic opponent.
The Democratic party bosses are fat, safe and happy getting fed from the state coffers, while Christie’s governor, making the calculation that Christie can’t turn their little fiefdoms into Republican territories.
Fuck ’em.
The NJ Dem Party ain’t getting any support from me as long those bosses are still in office.
Corner Stone
@gene108: Biden isn’t Biden in 1988. A significant chunk of the D party may see him as the better successor to carry on Obama’s policies and cement his legacy. Some in the D party may just not want another Clinton in the WH.
If, in some strange cartoon version of events, the two people are Biden v Christie, I will take any action you want to lay down that Biden wins the general election.
As for Hillary sucking up the oxygen, yes, so far. There’s nothing inevitable about her running, or her being the candidate.
geg6
@gene108:
Martin O’Malley isn’t sitting back and waiting for Hil to make a decision. He’s been to Iowa at least once. He’s not well known, but a friend worked for him when he was mayor of Baltimore and couldn’t be more enthusiastic about him.
pamelabrown53
@gene108: “…the republicans have been out three years burnishing their national image”. Didn’t you mean to say firebombing their national image?
aimai
@Corner Stone: As usual a personal story from someone in one’s tribe matters more than anything that you might say.
gene108
@cmorenc:
Maybe I’m wrong about Christie’s appeal outside of NJ.
Afterall the guys looking to dismantle Wake County schools and create “neighborhood schools” were from NJ and what is popular in NJ – each town has their own school district – basically wasn’t popular in Wake County.
Corner Stone
@Corner Stone: Further, I look at the political pundit nonsense over this stupid fucking book “Double Down” and I just want to start choking people out.
The political media is going to absolutely over-scrutinize every single thing Hillary related for the foreseeable future because that’s what they want to happen.
I’m open to evaluating any potential candidates at this point.
Yatsuno
@Geoduck: I just hope Eyman loses his vanity initiative and badly. The noes have been selling up how it violates private property rights by making it illegal to ban a petitioner at your business, well, ever. Eyman needs to meet the wrong end of a train here and soon.
KG
@gene108: Biden has the advantage of being the sitting VP for a termed out President – see Nixon 1960, GHW Bush 1988, and Al Gore 2000. The problem for Biden and Clinton is that they’ll be fair old come 2016, he’s already 70, she’s 66. The last three presidents have been fairly young, Clinton and Obama were both 47 when they took office, Bush was 54. That’s a trend I don’t think will be broken. Plus, history seems to suggest that when there’s an open field in the Dem primary, the front runners don’t tend to do well
Corner Stone
@pamelabrown53:
I think he meant to say, “burnishing their national image onto their burning crosses”.
Spaghetti Lee
@gene108:
Oh they’ve been burnishing their image, all right. And all they have to show for it is all-time lows in public approval. And I don’t see any sign that the complete lunatic wing is willing to shut up. The Club For Growth and the rest are already pimping True Conservative primary challengers for ’14, and since a lot of them are in right-wing states, they might win. A whole new crop of nuts to point to and remind people.
Omnes Omnibus
Kay, on a related note, a voter ID trial starts in Milwaukee on Monday.
ETA: Here is some info on the case.
CarolDuhart2
@Corner Stone: A miracle! I actually agree with Corner Stone for this one. 2016 just might be Biden’s year if he’s healthy enough and HIllary doesn’t run. Folks tend to underestimate just how much affection grass-roots Dems have for Joe. And he’s earned a solid shot by being a loyal and competent assistant to Obama.
Nobody really remembers 1988 (and considering how the nominee and his health was, he’s better off losing that one).
In 2008 he was running against two juggernauts, Obama and HIllary..
And the Republicans are bound to nominate a true firebrand teabagger this time unless a Republican Governor steps into the ring. They feel that they lost because the nominees like McCain and Romney were both out of touch plutocrats and too squishy to fire up the base. That’s the cracked mirror they are looking at.
To saner people Joe will be both charismatic and sensible enough. If he selects a good VP who’s young enough and strong enough to serve if necessary, he should win fairly easily against a teabagger. And he’ll inherit Obama’s fundraising and get out the vote machine which will be a Ferrari compared to the Republican Yugo.
MikeJ
@Yatsuno: On the Eyman thing, what I dislike is that a petition gatherer can stand anywhere and bug people, but it will be illegal for anybody to stand next to them and try to dissuade people from signing. No free speech if you’re against Eyman.
Corner Stone
@CarolDuhart2: Now my feelings are hurt. That hurt.
Omnes Omnibus
@Omnes Omnibus: The judge is a Clinton appointee, former Dem state senator, and former legal aid lawyer. He is considered a good candidate for any openings on the Seventh Circuit. A good draw for the good guys.
EconWatcher
My wife and I shall do our duty on Tuesday morning and go help elect Terry McAuliffe to the governorship of Virginia. He looks to win pretty easily. He’d better behave himself.
(My wife is an immigrant, mostly apolitical and with eclectic policy views, who tends to view the American political scene with detached bemusement. She was tempted to sit this one out until I told her about transvaginal ultrasounds. That really ticked her off; she’ll be casting her vote with extreme prejudice.)
gene108
@KG:
Reagan was the oldest President ever elected at 69 years old in 1980. Eisenhower one of the oldest elected being 62 in 1952.
I think late 40’s to early 50’s is the sweet spot for Presidential candidates in this country. Kennedy and Teddy Roosevelt were the youngest and they were in their early 40’s.
handsmile
Tuesday evening will herald the election of a life-long, proud progressive, Bill de Blasio, as mayor of New York City. The margin of victory is predicted to be huge, perhaps historic. (I’ve done some volunteering for the campaign, but since his primary victory not much has been required.)
I believe that margin expresses a broad, city-wide repudiation of the governance style and policy priorities of Michael Bloomberg. His autocratic arrogance and commitment to the desires of 2% of New Yorkers (not just 1%, there are a lot of really wealthy people here) and tourists have rotted this Apple.
But make no mistake. Not just the knives but the heavy artillery are being prepared to lay into de Blasio once he attempts to address the herculean tasks before him. The hippie-punching will be EPIC whenever (as inevitable) he stumbles. To mount the head of this progressive (and in turn discredit the principles he espouses) will be a constant quest throughout de Blasio’s tenure as Mayor.
@ Kay:
Thanks for the helpful Governing.com link above. I look forward to reading your post-election analysis (as I always do your pre-election analysis). Best wishes and digits crossed for your Ohio school bond issue.
CarolDuhart2
@Corner Stone: Hee. Hee.
CarolDuhart2
@gene108: I think Biden could be the great exception. He seems vigorous enough to actively campaign for the job. If he isn’t, I expect he will not try to do so. So we can be sure he is up to it. And while he has his right spots (take the drug war for instance), I don’t think he’s reactionary and I think he will continue the Obama changes.
Anoniminous
NewsMax headline yesterday: Virginia Race tightening!
NewsMax headline today: McAuliffe Headed for Big Win!
Idiots
geg6
@handsmile:
I hope against hope that DeBlasio is wildly successful as mayor. We need a guy like him to get to a national level and NYC mayor could be a great springboard.
KG
@gene108: you’re probably right about the age sweet spot. GHW Bush was in his mid-60s, Carter and Nixon were both in their 50s. It’s not impossible for Clinton or Biden to win the nomination, but I’m not sure either of them will even run.
Kay
@Omnes Omnibus:
Thanks.
I’ve been exaggerating the effect of voter id in this county just to torture the Republicans supporters of the school bond. The plan was I would locate and get out the east side voters (more Democratic, but also low turnout) so I say “well, we ID’ed them and they’ll come out but there’s no telling whether they’ll be allowed to vote!” Then I walk away.
This whole thing has been fun in that way. I call them “tax and spend Republicans” and ask them why they want to “throw money at schools” because, really, we wouldn’t be in this mess if they hadn’t promoted this ridiculous philosophy for 30 years where revenue is verboten. We haven’t built a school since Ronald Reagan. That’s not a coincidence.
Baud
@Anya:
Me too. I know there are local politics involved, but still…
fuckwit
i’m anti biden, anti clinton, but if either win the primary i’ll campaign for them with all the enthusiasm i gave john kerry in 2004… though perhaps thanks to the teabaggers, with better results tjis time.
Peter
I should point out that Obama wasn’t anybody’s radar for 2008 back in November 2005. Clinton was the presumed nominee until the primary actually started and Obama surprised everyone by winning the first few states.
There’s still a lot of time for the field to shift.
lamh36
@Corner Stone: hey. Since I moved from DFW in January I admit I havent kept up on Texas politics outside of checking out Wendy Davis and of course Crazy Cruz (also too Is enuff to deal with Jindal & his crap). But i still have a lot of friends in the area and I like to send them links to keep them abreast of what’s going on. is there a link youve got that I can send to them to keep them up to date?
burnspbesq
@Anya:
That’s the fallacy about New Jersey, right there, in a nutshell. Unless you take the time to understand what the state is really like demographically, it’s easy to make that mistake, but the reality is that NJ is as purple as as purple can be, and it has been for as long as I can remember (my family moved to NJ in 1964).
CarolDuhart2
Maybe it’s the Obama effect, or the teabagger effect, but I find it hard to find a Democrat who could run (maybe Manchin) that I couldn’t wholeheartedly support in 2016. The last few years has turned me from a Blue Dog to a Yellow Dog. It’s scary out there.
aimai
@Corner Stone: I wish Biden could do it but I think people are comfortable with him in the role of jovial consigliere. I love him but I don’t think he is seen as able to “carry on” Obama’s legacy anymore than any other Dem could or would promise to do.
EconWatcher
I have deep affection for Biden. I get the sense he’s a better person than either of the Clintons, and possibly Obama too, although I’m unsure on the last part. But I really don’t think he’d be a good pick for the top of the ticket.
It’s true that his gaffe problem gets exaggerated. But it’s there, and I think it could really be an issue. One of the reasons Obama has been able to survive in the face of hysterical opposition and a hostile press is his coolness and almost complete lack of verbal missteps. In all the years that have passed now, I can only think of a few instances when he genuinely stepped into it (I’d say the “clinging to guns and religion” comment and maybe “if you like your plan, you can keep it” are about it).
I’m afraid Biden would give the jackals too much meat to gnaw on.
Hillary would be a much safer choice, if she’s healthy.
aimai
@Kay: Oh, Kay, I love you so hard.
lamh36
@CarolDuhart2: well we both a part of the same miracle because I also agree with Corner Stone and even moreso wirh what you wrote!
Redshift
I was supposed to canvass for the Dems on the noonish shift today, but by the time I got there at 12:30, all the packets had already gone out. I’m thinking this may have something to do with Obama doing a rally for TMac in NoVa this morning, but it’s still pretty impressive.
There was a great AP article about our canvassing yesterday; apparently we knocked 125,000 doors yesterday morning. The best part was “the Cuccinelli campaign declined to release their volunteer numbers.”
Redshift
It’s so weird reading about a tough campaign for a school bond. Here in suburban VA, they’re never really contested; nobody opposes them other than cranks.
Baud
@Redshift:
That’s awesome.
handsmile
@geg6:
As do I, but I shudder to think what de Blasio will confront as the neglect from three terms of a Bloomberg administration begins to be uncovered. Bills coming due, both literally and figuratively. The near-invincible power of the billionaire’s wealth and social connections and the abject cravenness of the NYC media (the “liberal NYT” most egregiously) has masked a host of intractable problems.
Yes, being mayor of the nation’s largest city, and one of the world’s largest economies, “could be a great springboard.” It’s the trajectory from that board that could engender great promise (our shared hope) or great despair.
ETA: I know this purports to be a political blog, and I know it’s probably just me, but really, this much speculation about 2016 leaves me befuddled.
FlipYrWhig
I could go for something like Biden-O’Malley or Biden-Gillibrand or Biden-Castro or Biden-Sherrod Brown or Biden-Kamala Harris. I’m a bit nervous that if there’s no frontrunner, just a wide-open competition, we’ll end up with Steve Beshear rising to the top or something similarly meh.
GregB
I assume that on Tuesday we’ll see McAuliffe wipe the floor with Cooch. DeBlasio will win big and a win for a Jersey GOPer that the tea-baggers will go nuts against once someone starts running video of him hugging Obama on a few primary spots
Another one to watch is the mayor’s race in the NH city of Manchester. The incumbent is a GOP-er but I think he’s in trouble. The previous mayor went on to tea-bagging success in Congress in 2010 then got shipped back out in 2012.
CarolDuhart2
@EconWatcher: I like to think Biden has learned something from Obama-and his “gaffes” are harmless compared to the surely toxic spew the nominee will probably come out with. Even a slicker opponent is going to be forced to say things that will make more moderate voters roll their eyes.
In addition, I suddenly have a feeling that the dudebros will be trying to run someone on the Libertarian ticket that year, and combined with the sudden Tea Party interest, we will see a third party effort to actually take down the Republican nominee.
FlipYrWhig
@Redshift: I’m SO happy to see Cooch end not with a bang but a whimper. I’m in VA and every Dem ad is about how Republicans want to mess around with abortion and birth control. (The local Repub ads are all about [1] how the local Dem is supported by Scary Out Of State Radicals, [2] how they’re not _really_ so keen on messing with reproductive rights.)
Omnes Omnibus
@FlipYrWhig: Beshear. like Biden and Clinton, is getting up there in years – especially for a first bite at the apple.
Eric U.
@Redshift: the cranks won the school board a few years back. Ok, so they are truely moderate republicans, but they still are noxious and self-dealing. Then they signed up for one of those stupid plans where they financed a new school using some derivitive shenanigans that built up a $21 million deficit. They first realized there was a problem when it was ony $500k, but refused to pay it. I think they may have finally settled for $8 million. I can’t believe they will win re-election. Dems are much too passive around here.
Baud
@handsmile:
I hear you. Cleaning up after W. has taken a toll on us nationally.
FlipYrWhig
@CarolDuhart2: Ooh, that would be interesting. I can totally see someone like Cruz or Paul, or both if it’s true they don’t like each other so much anymore, running all the way to the general election for a ticket that isn’t the official Republican one.
Redshift
@FlipYrWhig: Yeah, one of the little-remarked aspects of this race is that all three of the Democrats have been running as supporters of abortion rights. McAuliffe had a major campaign event with Cecile Richards. The idea that Democrats have to be conservative and appeal to rural voters to win in Virginia is dead, and that’s great.
CarolDuhart2
@FlipYrWhig: I definitely see it if Christie survives the nomination process. Cruz has been indoctrinated to think he should be King-forget President People like that are sore losers to say the least, and he’s likely to cultivate that spirit in his delegates or followers.
One more thing: these folks may see 2016 as their last chance. If a squishy moderate like Christie wins, or a Democrat wins, the changes Obama have brought will be near irreversable,
Corner Stone
@lamh36: What I have so far is more anecdotal than evidence. I’m sure there will be hard reporting coming in over the next two weeks.
Ralphb points to this report about former House Speaker Jim Wright’s issues. And I think we all should have seen by now that both a TX Judge and Wendy Davis had to sign affidavits to vote. Here’s a local San Antonio blurb on TX AG Greg Abbott needing an affidavit to vote as well, due to this new law.
Those are the more prominent ones, so far. But the feeders I am getting from across a big chunk of the state is that lots and lots of little people got hassled as well.
I’m thinking there will be a big stink, then maybe the DOJ can get it stopped.
schrodinger's cat
@handsmile: Chrystia Freeland seems to have a gotten a head start on this in her NYT piece this morning.
Juju
@geg6: I think it will end up being Clinton\ O’Malley.
liberal
@EconWatcher:
IIRC Biden is somewhat hawkish. Of the four, Hillary and Joe are the most; Obama perhaps the least.
schrodinger's cat
I am not too excited about Hillary, her behavior during the the 2008 primaries was cringe worthy.
ETA: I am sure we will get to find out more about Bill Clinton and his post Presidency bimbettes. Do. not. want.
Cervantes
@Suffern ACE: County and village elections for me.
Is that “village” as in Suffern, NY 10901?
Corner Stone
@schrodinger’s cat: It’s comments like these that make me ambivalent about Hillary running.
Just ridiculous.
Chyron HR
@Anoniminous:
They left out the one about Cuccinelli expanding his leads in Pennsylvania and Oregon.
schrodinger's cat
@Corner Stone: I will support her if she wins the nomination of course. I just don’t find her candidacy all that exciting.
ETA: The eagerness on the part of her supporters to anoint her as the chosen one is also off putting.
Starfish
@StringOnAStick: Why doesn’t Colorado believe in property taxes? Why are sales taxes stupid high?
JoyfulA
My township (14,000 in 2010, 10,000 in 2000) has a referendum on instituting a land preservation tax. As you can see from the 40% population growth in a decade, real estate development has been fierce.
This is a very Republican area, and I suspect the powers that be have some particular beneficiaries in mind (farmers get a one-time chunk of money, after which development is never legally allowed). I’m voting for it anyhow. I want to keep the little dairy farm down the street and wish I still had a horse pasture across the street instead of the house that was built (and blocks my view).
Plus the real estate hotshots around here are going nuts with direct mail and letters to the editor, and their discomfort is comforting. If development meant affordable housing, I’d be for it, but it’s McMansions, malls, car dealerships, office parks, even a development with nice houses on a couple of acres each that might some day be actual mansions should the treelets ever grow.
Otherwise, there are a couple of state judicial races that geg6 mentioned. There are some school board seats up, I think, but the Republicans always cross-file, and there are seldom any actual local Democrats on a ballot. (I’ll ask my area leader tomorrow who the better GOPs are.)
IowaOldLady
Did I miss this upthread? Jim Wright was denied a voter ID card? He apparently worked it out with some help but not all voters are former Speakers of the US House, for god’s sake.
IowaOldLady
Ah yes, I see it at #11 from Ralphb. Holy crap.
Redshift
There was a hilarious report from inside the conservative bubble in the comments on that AP article when it appeared in the Hampton Roads paper:
Needless to say, the wingnut commenter did not respond to requests to provide links to these “features” in the WaPo and Fredericksburg paper, which do not actually exist. I wonder if it’s Rush Limbaugh or someone more local who is telling them this fantasy.
shelly
No matter what point spread McAuliffe wins by, the Repubs will sniff that ‘it should have been by a wider margin,” just like they did with Booker in NJ. So it’s actually kind of a Repblican win!
Cervantes
@EconWatcher: Well, there was that first debate with Romney last year.
gnomedad
@Kay:
I’d love to hear “He only beat us because we’re batshit insane!”
scav
G’ Luck Kay. G’ Luck Schools.
jeffreyw
Threads needz moar kittehs!
Steeplejack
@Corner Stone:
True, true, true. I went without a “valid ID” for five or six years from 2005. Didn’t have a car, paycheck was direct deposit, and I had a debit card. And I didn’t fly anywhere.
I think I got carded only once in that whole time, and that was an alcohol server somewhere who was being a dick. (I do not look anywhere close to non-drinking age.) Hell, I was even able to vote, because I was registered (don’t remember how—probably ACORN!) and I didn’t have to produce a picture ID at the polling station.
Hal
I’m wondering what turnout is going to be like in NJ on Tuesday. Christie could win big, but if voters don’t turn out in any particularly large numbers it could take some of the sheen of even a huge win.
Also, I thought it was a little funny that NPR’s blurb on the Virginia race was referred to as Attorney General vs Democratic Fundraiser Mcauliffe. Just the money guy against the cooch.
Chris
@Hal:
I trust that Even The Liberal Media will be fair-minded enough to ensure that no sheen is removed.
Steeplejack
@EconWatcher:
The thing that kills me about that is that history has pretty much vindicated him on that issue (see Teabaggers, NRA, etc.). Yeah, maybe it was impolite to mention the elephant in the room, but still [. . .]
Mary G
We had to vote by mail whether or not the city’s clean ocean fee should be changed from $5 to $6, I voted yes. Only property owners could vote, which I thought was strange.
rikyrah
Watching Virginia.
Not only the Governor’s race, but all three of the top races.
I do believe a whole lotta people who didn’t think that the VoterID thing affected them got a wakeup call in Texas.
Steeplejack
@jeffreyw:
Lots of happy tails!
Elizabelle
Tidbit from AP story today:
GHayduke (formerly lojasmo)
Mpls and St. Paul city council races as well as Mpls. mayoral race on Tuesday. Chris Coleman (St. Paul) will win in a walk. I suspect Betsy Hodges will be the next Mpls mayor.
aimai
@Steeplejack: The other thing that kills me about that comment is that it was SYMPATHETIC for fuck’s sake. The real reason why the right was able to run with it as a slur is that although they oscillate between wanting to be seen as conquering heroes and as miserable victims and lost causers and they like to choose how they are seen. They accept “I’m threatened by a godless society that communistically wants to take my guns and I cling tightly to my guns and my god as a result” because they see that as courageous. But god forbid anyone should nod sympathetically and say “I’m so sorry you have to cling to your god and your guns because you feel threatened” because that doesn’t sound so manly.
mai naem
There’s a piece onpost presidentialing Dubbya in the NYT today excerpted from Peter Baker’s book. Of course most of the piece is a tongue job on Dubbya but the vast vast majority of comments are hilariously negative.
I hope Terry Mac wins, if for nothing else, just so that there are no electoral shenanigans in VA in ’14 and ’16.
And, for crying out loud, Charlie Crist better win Fla so that he can at least extend the early voting and in person voting times.
Steeplejack
@aimai:
Yeah, you’re right. Obama wasn’t criticizing them. But God forbid that he empathize with them, because that’s just the same as looking down on them.
ETA: At least he didn’t say, “Bless their hearts.”
Lyrebird
@Kay: Late reply here, but thanks and oh yes! That’s part of why I am so grateful to have y’all (front pagers) read that stuff; too frustrating for me.
Same thing happens during the olympics (only time I watch much TV) — they’ve gotta get in someone’s face with this, “so how do you feel, now that Some Other Competitor has taken ‘your’ gold”, instead of — “wow, you got a silver Olympic medal and skied (sp?) faster than all but three people on record ever, how does that feel?”
Elizabelle
@mai naem:
I wish the NYTimes would boot Peter Baker. He tried to knobwash GWBush’s legacy today, attempting to point out the guy’s got a 47% approval rating (really?), and the readers aren’t having any of it.
PBaker set up an Obama abusefest earlier this week, with his story “Where the Buck Stops, Some See a Bystander.” You see, the RNC is testing that “bystander” slur, and PBaker is assisting in its rollout.
Over 900 comments approved on the NYT story — and they are not what the NYTimes usually allows. They’re outright slams and nasty personalized attacks. One was along the lines of “Obama read that he’s got two daughters, so now he’s aware.”
And that got approved, by the NYTimes, which usually moderates more carefully.
Boot Peter Baker. Let him swim with his own type at Politico.
NYTimes: your readers still remember Judith Miller. Just saying.
Chris
@aimai:
It’s… kind of like the concept of racism that way. They want to be able to say that, you know, black people shouldn’t vote because they’re all welfare queens, the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act were bad ideas, etc… even, in some cases, naming their ranch “N/gg/rhead.” In other words, they want to be racist – that’s the whole point. But they also recognize on some dim level that that’s not a considered a good thing in public, so they still get outraged and butthurt when anyone else calls them that.
Elizabelle
@aimai:
Yeah, I think Huffpost and a lot of blogs were whoring on the “guns and religion” private remarks, when Obama’s intent, which you could see from the context, was not what they supposed.
mai naem
If it’s Hillary, I’ll enthusiastically vote for he because she would be the first woman and I want a Dem to be the first woman not a repub. I would like the Dems to have a westerner for Veep though. Hickenlooper, Schweitzer or Kitzhaber. Kitzhaber might be a good pick with the Obamacare issues being that he’s a physician. Hickenlooper would probably scare the gun nuts but Hillary isn’t going to get the gun nuts anyway. Schweitzer comes across a little quirky but I wonder if he would bring along Montana’s whatever dinky electoral votes. Also too, Charlie Crist but they’ll pull all the anti-Dem stuff he’s ever said. BTW, how come Jeane Shaheen is never considered for President or Governor. She’s got all the qualifications.
StringOnAStick
@Starfish:
Argh, it’s a freaking mess; a legacy from the years of reactionary politics as this state was turning from red to purple (and to blue, soon). Thanks to the stupid ballot initiative process, we have rules about how much (in %) can come from business property taxes and how much from private property, and it is a 48%- 52% split; business loves it so it never gets overturned. The initiative process also brought us the TABOR amendment, while limited the % that taxes could increase each year and was the baby of the most prominent Libertarian/slumlord/now-in-prison – Douglas Bruce. The problem was it had a ratchet built in, so when the economy collapsed in 2000 here (telecom/stock market) it reset the state budget back to what was collected in that year of economic hell and then limited the annual increase so as the economy recovered there was no money for roads/education/etc. as needed for a rapidly expanding economy. Voters passed a temporary reprieve and I think we have a few years left before we have to find that one all over again. I truly, truly hate the initiative process; we should have learned from how badly it damaged CA, but no.
Snarkworth
We have a school district referendum that would repeal the occupation tax and replace the revenue with a slight increase in a local income tax. The occupation tax is one of the stupidest levies ever invented. You pay based not on your earnings, but on the name of your occupation. So lawyers pay more than waiters, and surgeons pay more than ballerinas. People hate it, and evade it like crazy.
MomSense
@geg6:
I really like O’Malley. He was smart and did a lot of state conventions in 2012 and is very popular.
Woodrowfan
re 2016: You all are forgetting the electoral and intellectual powerhouse that is Indiana’s Mike Pence!
schrodinger's cat
@Elizabelle: He always irks me whenever he is on Gwen Ifill’s gabfest on PBS.
evap
I moved to VA in August and will be voting here on Tuesday. It would be great if the Dems sweep all three state elections and pick up some seats in the state senate. There are no Republican candidates for the state house of delegates or county board where I am (Arlington). There’s a county ballot issue that I can’t figure out, the wording is quite strange… it starts “is there a need for…” huh? I can’t find any information about the issue — something to do with re-authorizing the housing authority. When in doubt, vote no!! (says my mother who was involved with the League of Women Voters for many years and was the national vice-president at some point).
I’m glad to be able to vote in the governor’s race, but will be sad that I can’t vote for Michelle Nunn next year in the GA senate race.
Seanly
I did some phone calling for Yes!Yes! for Boise, 2 bond issues that the City of Boise wants to pass. The first is for fire safety – building a couple of new fire stations, rehabbing a few other ones and building a state of the art training facility. The second is to expand the wonderful greenbelt around Boise, purchasing more land in the Foothills to ensure trail access and improving/building a few city parks. Both bonds need 2/3 supermajority to pass.
The park bond is a wishlist, but the fire safety is a must-pass. The work on the firehouses & the new training facility are needed whether the money is there or not. If the fire safety bond doesn’t pass, firefighters will have to be let go to make room in the existing budget.
The cost of the bonds? A total of $12 a year for the average homeowner for 20 years. There were people who complained about that paltry amount when I called them.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@evap: There’s a short WAMU story about the Arlington housing initiative. I heard a bit of a recent story about it that indicated that since Arlington doesn’t have such an authority it can’t apply for HUD grants or something, but I didn’t catch the details.
HTH a little.
Cheers,
Scott.