The indefatigable Ed Kilgore, at the Washington Monthly:
Sticking with the emerging GOP circus… according to precedent we’d normally be anticipating the First Big Scored Event in the presidential cycle a year from now in that same city: the Iowa Republican Straw Poll.
As you may recall, a strong second-place finish in the 2007 Straw Poll make Mike Huckabee rather than Sam Brownback the Christian Right candidate in that cycle (leading to an eventual Caucus victory that royally screwed up Mitt Romney’s campaign). And in 2011, Michele Bachmann became an unlikely (and short-lived) front-runner after edging Ron Paul in Ames, while one-time Smart Money contender Tim Pawlenty was knocked right out of the race.
The inherent craziness of the event (participants are typically bused to Ames and fed box lunches by campaigns; big money is spent on securing by auction the most favorable tent locations near the arena), and the sometimes capricious results, have led to a lot of talk about killing or replacing it. One of the biggest critics has been Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, whose allies recently succeeded in retaking control of the state party apparatus from Paulites (naturally among the biggest defenders of an event determined by the ability to dominate a relatively small room via sheer mobilization of zealots). Branstad’s talked about replacing the Straw Poll with a series of regional events, maintaining the basic concept of shaking down presidential candidates by making them pour resources into a state party fundraising initiative. But it’s not a done deal yet, per this report from National Journal’s Emily Schultheis:
Rep. Steve King, meanwhile, is a stark defender of the event. At the Iowa State Fair on Friday, King told National Journal, “The only thing that we need to scrap is the talk about there not being a straw poll….”
It should perhaps be pointed out that Ames is in King’s district. But still, he walks tall in the Iowa GOP. And his words are a reminder that it’s not just members of the Revolution who favor a big pre-Caucus media circus…
It has puzzled me that a meanspirited, ignorant, dimwitted, ugly-inside-and-out thug like Steve King commands so much political attention outside his voting base of dogfighting torture enthusiasts and agribusiness criminals. I guess the quadrennial Unbeauty Contest has a disproportionate weight with the GOP’s “permanent party” (and, of course, the Media Village courtiers who share an unnatural relationship with said party). Kilgore’s colleague Jonathan Bernstein chips in:
… To understand Ames, it’s important to understand how and why it matters. The context is the invisible primary, the long (long, long) portion of the campaign before voters get involved when party actors — the politicians, formal party officials and staff, campaign and governing professionals, activists, party-aligned interest groups and party-aligned partisan media who have the biggest say in nomination politics — coordinate and compete over the nominee and the direction of the party. Ames is important only if those party actors treat it as important…
I guess there’s a small positive, in that the race to pander to the very worst and most parochial instincts of these disproportionately elderly, evangelical, very white Heartlanders(tm) gives the rest of us a very clear picture of exactly what to expect in the general election. Kind of embarrassing for the rest of us to watch, though.
Amir Khalid
I’ve never known a time when this straw poll managed to predict the Republican nominee for President. Did it ever?
NotMax
@Amir Khalid
2007: Mitt Romney
1999: George W. Bush
1995: Bob Dole (tie w/Phil Gramm for 1st)
As it has been held only 6 times thus far, that’s a 50% rate for those who went on to get the nomination.
NotMax
Whoops – should have mentioned that Romney was a nominee, but not in the same year he won the straw poll.
Amir Khalid
@NotMax:
So it’s two out of six — a 33% success rate. Can’t say I’m impressed. As a fundraising wheeze for the state party its existence is justified, I suppose; but I don’t get why anyone outside Iowa gives it a moment’s thought.
Amir Khalid
A headline from Slate’s front page:
(Yes, that headline has a grammatical mistake too obvious to need noting.) Why is “to” the only word with no initial cap?
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Amir Khalid: Short (three letters) prepositions aren’t capitalized in AP Style. Neither are short coordinating conjunctions, nor are articles.
I’m not as familiar with Chicago Style, but I think they drop the three-letter limit.
Amir Khalid
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism:
Ah, I see. The Star, my old newspaper, uses normal capitalisation in its headlines, and follows neither AP nor Chicago Style.
Chris T.
@Amir Khalid: Wow … at first glance, I read that as “won’t make your p3n1s longer”.
Too much spam in my inbox recently, perhaps. :-)
Suffern ACE
I thought the Republicans were against free lunches of all kinds, because of a ‘concern ‘ for dependency .
Botsplainer
Federal Judge Mark Fuller (the Bush appointee who screwed Don Siegelman) got himself locked up over really knocking the snot out of his new wife in the Atlanta Ritz Carlton.
http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/politics/southunionstreet/2014/08/11/judge-mark-fuller-released-from-atlanta-jail/13899869/
He divorced in 2012, and this current wife was accusing him of an affair. His career has been marked by sketchy ethics.
He’s the perfect example of a moral Southern man demonstrating his Christian values…
Schlemizel
It will be ridiculously hard to kill the Ames Straw Poll as it was founded on and continues to be the one guiding principle of the GOP – grift. Designed to force candidates to funnel money into the state party with some spill over into the state itself ASP delivers cash to the state party at the expense of the fools (often moneyed fools) who go in early and hard for a candidate. A good grifter knows when they can still bleed the mark & this one does not look pale enough yet.
JPL
@Botsplainer: I’m beginning to think, that republicans are only concerned about family values, as they pertain to democrats.
Suffern ACE
I wonder how much Iowa caucus voters cost? I mean we “know” African American voters in Mississippi cost $15 according to the McDaniel campaign. I think Iowans are probably a bit less expensive. they are willing to sell their votes for a trip to the emerald city that is Ames and a hot dog. Who wouldn’t? Can you blame them.
Schlemizel
@JPL:
When I was a kid there was a grandma that was always very concerned about everyone’s behavior. She would sit in the window overlooking the street all day and yell at kids she felt were not toeing the line, she would even call the cops at times. Her own grandsons were the to biggest assholes around (they were the pair that would beat me up on the way home from Sunday School because I went to the wrong church) they lied & stole, drank and abused women. Grandma was the “family values” monitor in my neighborhood and it was her family that pissed on those values the most.
I think thats what ya cal yer parabol.
OzarkHillbilly
@Botsplainer: I want to be a female defendant before that a$$hole.
Also: Texas court rules against homeschoolers who expected rapture and stopped teaching kids Must be an Obama appointee.
Botsplainer
@JPL:
Family Values are a bludgeon with which to beat people for doing the things you do yourself. Certain primate behavior crosses all socioeconomic brackets in the same ratios; with Family Values, you get to hammer your opponents for doing stuff you are doing.
Gindy51
@Botsplainer: And those that scream the loudest about “Family Values” are violating that concept worse than anyone else.
BruceFromOhio
Don’t watch?
@Schlemizel:
Dingdingdingding, ladies and gentlemen, we have a winnaaaaaaar! It’s a big trough, and there are many, many hogs to be fed.
BruceFromOhio
@Botsplainer:
He’s got his pen!s and his fists working, now he needs to get a gun and shoot someone.
OzarkHillbilly
@Botsplainer: It alleviates your guilt and gets you in with Jesus.
MomSense
King of the Straw Poll. More like scarecrow. Scary, ridiculous, and ineffectual at their actual job.
PaulW
The only way to kill the Iowa Straw Poll is to have enough major Republican candidates denounce it and refuse to participate. Until then, everybody’s gotta suck up to a sparsely populated, overly conservative state while other places – California, where 1/3 of the entire nation lives for God’s sake – gotta wait to vote last.
That the GOP is intentionally overlooking even places like Texas or Florida – where there’s enough social conservative craziness to keep things wingnutty – to start off their quad-annual Upper-Class Twit of the Year contest is telling.
To hell with straw polls and caucuses. Just have a primary, a One Day nationwide primary between all states – after all the Presidency represents ALL of America does it not – with a requirement that all candidates campaign equally between all 50 states before said primary (held in mid-May, which should give enough time to campaign). That way, places like California get a f-cking chance to have a say rather than just sitting there last in all of these primary cycles. And if you’re whining about the poor small states not getting a stronger say in who the President is, too bad: those states aren’t where the majority of Americans live. And they still get Senators, Congresscritters and Governors elected to office to represent them.
Iowa Old Lady
The Ames Straw Poll is a fundraiser for the state GOP. It’s hard for me to imagine them killing it.
And btw, poor city of Ames. They got put into King’s district as a result of the 2010 redistricting. My former English dept colleague are glum about it.
debbie
You’ve pretty much defined the average American. Maybe that’s why King gets the attention.
amk
Other than the usual rw grifters and the bw media, does any one give a shite about this stupid poll?
JPL
@debbie: Christian Values.
OzarkHillbilly
@amk: the rich suckers
Schlemizel
@amk:
Because of the two you mention the poll has some (not always discernible but some) impact on who is in the mix for the nomination of one of the two major political parties in the US. We all should give a shit about it. As long as the worst of the GOP can define the outer edge of ‘reasonable and permissible’ this country is screwed. Their small numbers make the ASP a way they can throw their tiny weight in a big way. At the very least we need to be mocking this & pointing out the obvious grift, maleficence and anti-democratic nature of the process to the average morons we run into during our daily life who are unable to see past the media induced conventional wisdumb.
Another Holocene Human (now with new computer)
@Botsplainer: That Southern aristocracy musta been kinda inbred, as he’s the spitting image of several others of his ilk. Weird.
Watch him claim he’s seeing Jesus about his “alcohol problem” in a couple of months. These men never have a violence against women problem, it’s always a drinking problem.
Omnes Omnibus (the first of his name)
@debbie:
I am sorry, but that is a mclaren level pile of BS.
rikyrah
Cavuto Fails to Bait NFL Star into Badmouthing Michelle Obama on Fox
by Matt Wilstein | 5:53 pm, August 11th,
Fox News’ Neil Cavuto welcomed Seattle Seahawks quarterback and 2014 Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson on his show Monday to discuss his new campaign with the United Way to get kids in eat healthy food and exercise. But if Cavuto thought he could get Wilson to say anything bad about First Lady Michelle Obama’s efforts to do the same, he was quickly corrected.
After Wilson made his pitch, Cavuto asked him what “we are we doing wrong as a nation” when it comes to getting kids to eat healthier. “Michelle Obama is trying. Many argue that she’s getting to be too much of a food police mommy,” the host said. “Be that as it may, whatever she’s doing isn’t working. And I’m wondering what you are doing that is working. What’s the difference?”
“Well, the first lady, I have so much respect for her. I was able to meet her and the president, obviously, you know when we went to the Super Bowl, we won the Super Bowl and got to go to the White House,” Wilson said, smiling. “You know, I think at the end of the day, you know the kids, it’s tough to eat healthy. You know, I remember when I was a little kid I was always struggling, trying to eat healthy.”
Nice try, Neil. A for effort.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/cavuto-fails-to-bait-nfl-star-into-badmouthing-michelle-obama-on-fox/
Another Holocene Human (now with new computer)
@PaulW:
There’s actually a word for that, quadrennial, pretty sure an upper class twit came up with that. Quoting because it really does put the whole farce in perspective. The corn dog eating is like the Taking The Bra Off The Debs.
Another Holocene Human (now with new computer)
@rikyrah: Lickspittles like Cavuto always imagine that masculine fap-objects worship the same false gods that they do, but they’re wrong.
It would be irresponsible to speculate what Cavuto did after this incident to get his confidence back.
Omnes Omnibus (the first of his name)
@Another Holocene Human (now with new computer):
In the course of my lfe, I have done both of those things and I can tell you that they are nothing alike. Nothing at all.
Another Holocene Human (now with new computer)
Is anyone else eating up the Connecticut Nazi story? Woman running for judge failed to mention that her husband is a white supremacist with an outspoken blog which went on hiatus yesterday. On the blog he brags about having his white supremacist friends bully his daughter’s classmates’ parents on Facebook. Also, conspiracy theories about MH17.
Zubkova is all “what am I supposed to do, divorce him?” well, yeah, lady, because apparently you’re a-okay with having your father raise your kid as a white supremacist, that philosophy you allegedly don’t believe in.
Another Holocene Human (now with new computer)
@Omnes Omnibus (the first of his name): I mean for the audience, much pointing and laughing about how THER DOIN IT RONG.
Suffern ACE
@rikyrah: I’m surprised he didn’t follow up with “so you’re ok being told what to do by a mere woman?”
Gin & Tonic
@Another Holocene Human (now with new computer): Linky?
lol
@PaulW:
So limit presidential primaries to candidates who already have the resources to campaign nationwide straight off the bat? Because Super Tuesday wasn’t front-loaded enough?
@NotMax:
@Amir Khalid:
It’s not so much who wins as who completely falls flat. The straw poll culls the herd.
OzarkHillbilly
@lol: Not nearly enuf
Omnes Omnibus
@Another Holocene Human (now with new computer): Aha. That makes more sense.
Glocksman
The bullshit in Iowa is a huge part of the reason why we’re stuck with both huge corn subsidies and massive federal support for the boondoggle that’s known as corn based ethanol.
Fail to genuflect at the altar of corn in Iowa, and you’re toast before the rest of the country even knows you’re running for President.
Never mind that the Republican side of the contests bring out wingnuttia so extreme, it leaves the Ghosts of Eisenhower, Nixon, and Goldwater shaking their heads.
If the Iowa beauty contests were taking place in, say, California or New York, I doubt we’d see asshats like Huckabee or Santorum even coming close to front runner status.
I say this as a Hoosier (a person from Indiana for the benefit of those not from the midwest).
Fuck Iowa.
Fuck corn.
Fuck corn ethanol.
Glocksman
Though to be fair, I do have some sympathy for Iowa after reading American Dreamer.
Wallace was a complex character who was suspect in some of those he called friends, but IMHO he wasn’t the traitor that the right is determined to paint him as.