I get it, I get it
You don’t want to write about Trump bc you don’t respect him
But you’re a political journalist
No one respects you either
— Ben Dreyfuss (@bendreyfuss) August 5, 2015
Dave Weigel, at the Washington Post: “Political data gurus wrote off Trump. Here’s how they’re defending that.”
… In a rough year for polling analysis, the Trump surge stands out. The first-time candidate whom so many people wrote off has done for 2016 what Isaac Asimov’s Mule did for the psycho-historians of Foundation — a conquest from out of nowhere, unpredicted by any of the calculations, turning his enemies’ blasted palaces into new (and classy) throne rooms…
That might mean that the days of writing off Trump are over. His fate is not predetermined by polls or by prior right-wing insurgencies. The press may actually have to cover a campaign….
Percent who said they'd never vote for Trump in early June Fox poll: 59. Percent who say that now: 33. http://t.co/RnmqUX57yf
— Byron York (@ByronYork) August 3, 2015
Professor Krugman:
… So now the conventional wisdom is that we’re witnessing a temporary triumph of style over substance; Republican voters like Trump’s bluster, and haven’t (yet) realized that he isn’t making sense.
But if you ask me, the people who are really mistaking style for substance are the pundits. It’s true that Trump isn’t making sense — but neither are the mainstream contenders for the GOP nomination.
On economics, both Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are into deep voodoo. Bush takes his experience of presiding over a giant housing bubble in his state, as proof that he can double America’s underlying growth rate. Walker is Brownback-light: his governorship on Wisconsin was premised on the proposition that tax cuts, spending cuts, and union-bashing can create an economic miracle, but the reality is budget deficits and subpar growth, lagging in particular the performance of neighboring Minnesota…
So why is Trump regarded as ludicrous, while Bush and Walker are serious? Again, on the substance they’re all ludicrous; but pundits are taken in by the sober-sounding personal style of the runners-up, while voters apparently are not…
The fun thing about Donald Trump in the debate is it's so much harder to dog whistle when somebody is already feeding the rabid mutt steak.
— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) August 6, 2015
dmsilev
Tuned in a few minutes early. O’Reilly was pimping Kasich.
Also, do we know who picked the audience? Because if past GOP debates are any indication, the audience might cheer at lines that sane people might regard as …extreme.
raven
These Fox people are acting like this is real?
Steeplejack
OMG, right from the start the microphones are screwy. The Foxbots’ voices are echoing around the hall. I hope this isn’t intentional.
lgerard
jeez
they opened up the crypt and dragged Britt Hume out for this
JPL
OT>>> Betty if you see this, it’s about your Buc’s link
btw.. Is your first name Juliet?
Steeplejack
For some reason they can’t get the candidates to come out.
I can’t tell if I’m giddy with excitement or just sick to my stomach. Must get drink.
dmsilev
I like this part of the debate. None of the candidates are saying anything.
lgerard
obviously no one bothered to rehearse this production
dmsilev
So, Fox brought the clowns out 5 minutes early, and then sat around as the moderators babbled. Well done.
White Trash Liberal
This is a horror. There is no id. Id has become ego striving to be superego. What civilization is supposed to temper has instead been formed and fashioned from base clay and fastened with a flag pin.
Fox has become death, destroyer of minds.
jl
Won’t be able to watch much of it, which might be a good or bad thing.
Re the York tweet, the big swing in voter sentiment re Trump is among GOP voters if I understand the link to the poll correctly. Only those who answered ‘Republican’ to question 4 (n the presidential [primary election / caucus] in [state] next year, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican [primary election / caucus] for president, or are you unlikely to participate in either?) were asked.
I remember seeing polls showing around 2/3 of voters in general would not consider voting for Trump, and for obvious reasons that is what I am interested in, but haven’t seen any new results.
So early in the campaign, hard to say what any of this means yet, even among GOP. But I do hope they keep up their good work so far into next summer.
lgerard
Fox News and Facebook
two of Americas’ most trusted corporations!
dmsilev
“The rules are simple. There are no rules. You will each find a handgun underneath your podium. Let’s begin.”
Steeplejack
Megyn Kelly: “You guys nervous?”
God, this is already worse than I thought it could possibly be.
It’s a beauty pageant. I hope to God there is no swimsuit competition.
Randy P
Not going to watch or listen. Everything I learn about this debate will be via snark at BJ, Wonkette or the Guardian (all open in different tabs).
lgerard
Go Trump!
Piss them off right from the start
dmsilev
Toupee fight!
jl
@Steeplejack: Sounds like something a dominatrix might say to try to relax some newbies.
lgerard
great non answer from Carson
lgerard
Rubio scores
different-church-lady
@lgerard: What did they ask him, his name?
Steeplejack
@jl:
Megyn Kelly as a dominatrix is something I could get behind.
ETA: Phrasing!
Steeplejack
Okay, WTF. Which is the official Balloon Juice debate thread? This one was double-bigfooted in seven minutes. Guess I’ll move upstairs.
Keith G
OK, Bob Schooley has never shown me either profound insight or sparkling wit, but this…
…is pretty damn good.