(Image by NEIVANMADE)
A brief Rosie update: She is much improved over yesterday and the weekend. The medication to stimulate her appetite is helping, though we’re feeding her multiple smaller meals a day for right now so as not to overdue it all at once. Thank you all again for the good thoughts, well wishes, and for those of you praying, that too.
Before we dive in, I want to briefly touch on a lively discussion from the comments that happened either last night or the night before. Someone mentioned and referenced a source that the US had provided what it determined Ukraine needed, not what Ukraine wanted. I have no doubt that reporting is true. But it shows a flaw in the Biden administration’s strategy in regard to Ukraine. The US’s understanding of war, the doctrines and concepts that serve as the foundation for that understanding, are based on how the US military would fight an interstate war. It assumes something between air superiority and air dominance. It assumes the ability to spend days degraded the enemies capabilities on the ground from the air and the sea before the Land component begins its operations in a theater that has been shaped to fully enable American Land Power. A great deal of this American way of war influences NATO’s understanding and way of war because of the US’s dominance of the alliance. None of this is the Ukrainian understanding or way of war. The Biden nat-sec team’s mirroring of America’s understanding and way of war onto Ukraine is a failure of strategic understanding. The Ukrainian have been developing their own understanding and way of war since 2014. One that works for them given who their adversary is and what their own advantages and limitations are. It may be that it is not that the Ukrainians just want something, but that based on their understanding and way of war they know that they need it.
The Russians once again unloaded on Kharkiv today:
Russia strikes again in Kharkiv's city center with gliding bombs, the second assault in a row in daylight. At least one killed and several injuries. This is pure intimidation, with zero military purpose pic.twitter.com/BJCDaskVZZ
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 30, 2024
Russian forces launched two guided aerial bombs at Kharkiv, killing a 25-year-old man, a railroad worker, and wounding eight other civilians.
The attack caused damage to civilian infrastructure, garages, an educational institution, and an administrative building. pic.twitter.com/JFk622AK39
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 30, 2024
UPD. One civilian was killed and seven were injured in russian arial attack on Kharkiv, the mayor reported. Rescue efforts are ongoing.
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 30, 2024
They also unloaded on Odesa again:
⚡️Russian missile attack on Odesa kills 3, injures 3.
Russian forces attacked the southern port city of Odesa with ballistic missiles the night of April 30, killing three people and wounding three others, regional Governor Oleh Kiper reported.https://t.co/ElwbQUXzbs
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 30, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Today, First of All, we Express our Gratitude to Every Warrior of the State Border Guard Service – Address by the President
30 April 2024 – 20:35
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today, first of all, we express our gratitude to every warrior of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. It’s their professional holiday today. We are talking about thousands of qualified warriors, really brave people, who are not only protecting our state border, but also fighting at the frontline together with the entire Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine, even in the hottest directions… And they are fighting with true heroism. I thank each soldier, sergeant, officer and general of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, all the units that destroy the occupier and protect our communities in the border area from Russian terrorists. Each destroyed Russian subversive group, each repelled Russian assault is a step closer to the day when even the madmen in the Kremlin will realize that they are not able to break Ukraine’s spirit. And now I want to praise the units and the warriors of our State Border Guard Service of Ukraine who have shown their best in combat during these days and weeks. Luhansk Border Guard Detachment, the “Revenge” Offensive Guard Brigade, and especially Sergeant Anton Kyrylov, Senior Sergeant Vasyl Luskiv and Senior Lieutenant Serhiy Nezhovorov. Thank you, guys! Donetsk Border Guard Detachment: Soldiers Yaroslav Fedorenko and Denys Yablinskyi, and Senior Soldier Oleh Zimirskyi. Thank you! The south of our country — the warriors of the Kherson Border Guard Detachment: Soldier Serhiy Trotsenko, Sergeant Yuriy Shvets, and Senior Sergeant Anton Kanivets. Thank you! Berdyansk Border Guard Detachment — especially Sergeant Dmytro Manuilov and Senior Lieutenant Serhiy Peretyatko. Well done! Our Border Guard warriors from the Sea Guard units. Thank you all! And special thanks go to Sailor Artem Nazarenko, Senior Sailor Valeriy Lutsenko, Chief Petty Officer Yuriy Petryk, and Lieutenant Anton Konuchenko. Also, Chernihiv Border Guard Detachment, the warriors of which are fighting in the Novopavlivka direction — and doing it quite effectively. Soldier Anatoliy Romanchenko, Staff Sergeant Kostiantyn Melnychuk, and Chief Sergeant Denys Bortnyi. I thank you, guys, and all your brothers-in-arms for your bravery! Earlier yesterday, I also signed several decrees regarding the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine and its warriors. I awarded the titles of Hero of Ukraine to Master Sergeant Oleh Pryshnevskyi and Lieutenant Colonel Dmytro Oleksiuk. Thank you, guys! I also signed a decree on awarding two hundred and seventy-one border guards with state awards — the Cross of Military Merit and various orders. Furthermore, I signed the law of Ukraine on increasing the staffing of the State Border Guard Service — this way the state recognizes your efficiency, warriors, in protecting Ukraine, our independence, and the lives of our people. The truly effective structures of the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine deserve to be expanded and their experience should be shared with other units of our army.
Throughout the day, there were many meetings on military topics — the situation at the front, the occupier’s offensive and our actions — both to disrupt Russia’s plans and to achieve our goals. The Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, presented a report, and we also discussed with the Minister of Defence Rustem Umerov the deliveries of weapons and the communication with partners. We need a significant speed-up of deliveries to strengthen the capabilities of our soldiers tangibly. It is not Russian air bombs and assault operations that should dominate the frontline, but our Ukrainian initiative — our air defense, our artillery, our drones. We are solving this partially due to our production and to everyone who helps the Defense Forces. We have achieved particular results regarding the matter of drones — I am grateful to everyone who works for this cause, who produces drones, who trains operators, who provides everything we need. I thank each of our partners who now are really doing everything they can to strengthen our position. We are really counting on the promptness of the U.S. deliveries. These are the deliveries that should be felt in the destroyed logistics of the occupiers, in their fear to deploy in any part of the occupied territory, and in our strength — in strength, that should prove itself in the Pokrovsk direction, as well as in the Kurakhove, Siversk, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions… In the south of our country. Everywhere where Russia is pushing and where we have to push it back. And also everywhere where new strike threats may arise.
And one more thing for today.
The Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal delivered a report. We discussed the details of the supply of weapons and ammunition and the relevant work with partners. The Prime Minister reported on the negotiations in this regard — on the implementation of decisions. In particular, I would like to thank the Government and the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic personally for accelerating the implementation of the artillery initiative. We also discussed in detail today the preparations for the first Peace Summit, including the work with the countries of the Global South — government officials, our diplomats, the Office of the President — we all work together to ensure that as many leaders and nations as possible have the opportunity to prove themselves while working for peace. We also discussed the efforts regarding the European direction — the preparation for the decisions we expect in June, the actual start of negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the European Union. These are the really necessary things, and everything is ready on our side.
I thank everyone who fights and works for our country and people! I thank everyone in the world who stands with Ukraine! I thank everyone who helps — on time and in the right way to win.
Glory to Ukraine!
⚡️Zelensky: Aid delivery has to speed up for Ukraine to 'disrupt Russian plans.'
Zelensky held a day of meetings on the situation on the front lines on April 30, calling for Western allies to speed up deliveries of critically needed military aid.https://t.co/yHzsZtJcDY
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 30, 2024
The US:
The U.S. continues to encourage other countries to provide Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing on April 30.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 30, 2024
From The Kyiv Independent:
The U.S. continues to encourage other countries to provide Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing on April 30.
Ukraine has asked international partners to deliver more air defense in the wake of an increase in Russian strikes targeting energy infrastructure since March. U.S.-made Patriot systems are highly effective at intercepting Russia’s ballistic and cruise missiles.
“There are countries that have Patriots, and so what we’re doing is continuing to engage those countries,” Austin said.
Austin said he had talked “to the leaders of several countries” over the last two weeks, “encouraging them to give up more capability or provide more capability.”
Germany announced on April 13 that it would provide Kyiv with an additional Patriot system. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz then called on other NATO allies to do the same.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk responded that Poland could not give up the Patriot system installed at Rzeszow airport in southeastern Poland, as it is a key logistics hub for defense aid deliveries into Ukraine.
Greek media reported on April 22 that Athens planned to send at least one Patriot system to Ukraine, but Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis ruled this out in an interview on April 25.
Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles then announced on April 26 that Spain would send Patriot anti-aircraft missiles to Kyiv.
According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine needs 25 Patriots to protect the country from Russian attacks, but Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he is for now focused on securing seven to protect Ukraine’s largest cities.
The US has fifteen Patriot battalions. Each of these battalions has four Patriot batteries. The Army has requested funding for two more of these battalions. Right now the US has 60 Patriot batteries. And while some are definitely needed in the Middle East to protect US Forces deployed there, you’d think we’d be able to spare a few.
Or we could just send these:
⚡️Israel to mothball its Patriots, fate of systems badly needed by Ukraine unknown.
Israel did not say what would happen to the systems after they're retired.https://t.co/WDyCasriKa
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 30, 2024
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
The Israeli Air Force will mothball its Patriot air defense systems within two months as it moves to replace them with its own more advanced air defense equipment, the country’s defense ministry announced on April 30.
According to media reports, Israel is thought to have eight U.S.-produced Patriot systems that currently work alongside its own air defenses, most famously the Iron Dome, a short-range interceptor designed to shoot down rockets, mortars, and drones.
It also deploys the David’s Sling system, designed to shoot down medium-range projectiles, and the Arrow, a long-range system designed to intercept ballistic missiles.
All were put to their biggest test yet earlier this month when Iran fired 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles at Israel, almost all of which were intercepted and destroyed.
Israel will from now on rely on the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and the Arrow for its air defenses, rendering its Patriots – in use by the country since 1991 – obsolete.
The country’s defense ministry did not say what would happen to the systems after they’re retired but Ukraine has for months now been asking for more Patriots to bolster the country’s air defenses in the face of escalating Russian aerial attacks.
The Kyiv Independent asked Ukraine’s Defense Ministry if they had requested the mothballed Patriots but had not received a response at the time of publication.
The US has end use monitoring agreements for every weapon system, weapon, and munition we sell, whether military to military, allow commercial sale to foreign military, or dual use items. As such, since they’re not going to be needing them, maybe the Biden administration might ask Bibi if Israel would please send these to Ukraine.
Also the US:
⚡Trump says he would only continue US aid to Ukraine if Europe 'starts equalizing.'https://t.co/b1vNOv9XM1
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 30, 2024
While Washington's support to Ukraine is worth over $67 billion, European countries combined have allocated over $96 billion for military, humanitarian, and financial support since February 2022, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 30, 2024
But an insecure NATO is as likely to accrue to Russia’s benefit as it is to America’s. President Vladimir Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine looks to many in Europe and the U.S. like a test of his broader vision to reconstruct the Soviet empire. Under Biden and a bipartisan Congress, the U.S. has sent more than $100 billion to Ukraine to defend itself. It’s unlikely Trump would extend the same support to Kyiv. After Orban visited Mar-a-Lago in March, he said Trump “wouldn’t give a penny” to Ukraine. “I wouldn’t give unless Europe starts equalizing,” Trump hedges in our interview. “If Europe is not going to pay, why should we pay? They’re much more greatly affected. We have an ocean in between us. They don’t.” (E.U. nations have given more than $100 billion in aid to Ukraine as well.)
You should really take the time and read the whole article/interview.
Latvia:
More good news today!
The government of Latvia has just approved the transfer of NBS anti-aircraft guns, tactical unmanned surveillance systems, as well as other essential material and technical assets to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
We are grateful to our Latvian friends for… https://t.co/ZlAmRoQUVy— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 30, 2024
More good news today!
The government of Latvia has just approved the transfer of NBS anti-aircraft guns, tactical unmanned surveillance systems, as well as other essential material and technical assets to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
We are grateful to our Latvian friends for their unwavering support.
Together, we will win!
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇻
Here’s the machine translation of the two tweets by the Prime Minister of Latvia:
The government has just approved the transfer of NBS anti-aircraft guns, tactical unmanned surveillance systems, as well as other essential material and technical assets to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This will help improve both Ukraine’s air defense and intelligence capabilities. 1/2
With each shipment, we affirm friendship 🇺🇦 to the nation and its fight against the aggressor Russia, which is the biggest threat to world peace and security. Latvia annually allocates 0.25% of GDP to the military support of Ukraine. We will continue to support Ukraine both bilaterally and together with our allies. 2/2
Estonia:
📈 The membership of the Estonian Defence League (Kaitseliit) has surpassed 30,000 volunteers. I.e. more than 2% of 🇪🇪 population voluntarily contributes to the readiness to defend #Estonia! pic.twitter.com/7eriWfVHSJ
— MoD Estonia (@MoD_Estonia) April 30, 2024
Germany:
Great news from our German friends!
Germany provided a new military aid package for Ukraine, which includes:
◾️10 Marder IFVs
◾️Ammunition for Leopard 2
◾️1 Skynex air defense system with ammunition
◾️29,638 rounds ammunitions for Gepard
◾️IRIS-T SLM missiles
◾️1 TRML-4D air… pic.twitter.com/5Ar4k06fZj— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 30, 2024
Great news from our German friends!
Germany provided a new military aid package for Ukraine, which includes:
◾️10 Marder IFVs
◾️Ammunition for Leopard 2
◾️1 Skynex air defense system with ammunition
◾️29,638 rounds ammunitions for Gepard
◾️IRIS-T SLM missiles
◾️1 TRML-4D air surveillance radar
◾️7,500 rounds 155mm ammunition
◾️1 Beaver bridge-laying tank
◾️1 Dachs armored engineer vehicle
◾️9 mine ploughs
◾️1 AMPS self-protection systems for helicopters
◾️60 outboard motors
◾️600 LED lamps
◾️6 M1070 Oshkosh tank transporter tractors
◾️18,000 rounds ammunition 40mm
◾️3,000 RGW 90 man-portable anti-tank weapons
◾️120mm mortar ammunition
◾️1,980 camouflage nets
◾️2,000 ponchos
◾️100,000 first aid kitsThank you for your steadfast support!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
#StandWithUkraine
@BMVg_Bundeswehr
You may ask, in regard to that Trump interview, doesn’t all this military aid that we document here every time a new announcement is made by a NATO member demonstrate that our NATO allies have stepped up as Trump demands? It would if Trump could be made to believe that what we’re documenting here multiple times a week was actually happening. As I’ve written here before, Trump thinks he knows both the price and value of everything, when, in fact, he doesn’t know the price or value of anything.
Odesa:
Just appalling: Russia's strike on recreational zone in Odesa with Iskander missile packed with cluster munitions. Designed to kill personnel, its bomblets blanket areas as large as a football stadium. 5 people were killed in this attack. pic.twitter.com/8HdqiGql7Z
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 30, 2024
Horrific. There is no military application or reason for cluster munitions being used on a civilian waterfront area as they were in Odesa yesterday, killing 5 people and wounding 30 others. Time and time again, Russia has carried out similar attacks on densely populated areas of… pic.twitter.com/wj1Dpqy8Lc
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 30, 2024
Russian occupied Crimea:
Source- https://t.co/MkJGq6w5kv
Additionally, Russian sources report that multiple ATACMS hit Dzhankoy Airbase last night, injuring at least 5 Russian personnel on the ground. https://t.co/FyLvHJDa7f pic.twitter.com/gS703euGy4
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 30, 2024
/2. Burning marks also are visible on the territory of Gvadeiskoe military airfield near Simferopol. Which also was reported to be targeted by ATACMS tonight https://t.co/TkxmYHg7ng pic.twitter.com/pEv3SVasEt
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 30, 2024
Bakhmut front:
Achilles unit of the 92nd brigade targeting Russian AFVs and Russian infantry which is hiding inside/under destroyed AFVs. Bakhmut front. https://t.co/AY4ZNTKNJR pic.twitter.com/lnC5D6VwGr
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 30, 2024
"Russia is taking advantage of a "window of opportunities" until Ukrainian Defense Forces receive military aid from the United States. Russian attacks will intensify over the next two months, both on the front line and against civilians" – Commander of the Achilles drone strike… https://t.co/k9msVPHkdf pic.twitter.com/lBTfU3GgLY
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 30, 2024
Moscow and Rome, Georgia:
Carlson gives a whole new meaning to the term 'academic philosopher' with Dugin. His fascist ideology forms the core of the 'Russian world' concept Putin employs to justify Russia's bloody war. pic.twitter.com/wpc6vSx76b
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 30, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets today. So here’s some adjacent material:
Ukrainian Defender Taras found a puppy when he served in Kherson region.
The dog was very naughty as a puppy, so the soldiers named her Kosiak (Mistake). Kosiak grew up near Taras and got very attached to her human.
Then, Taras had to send her to a shelter because he was no… pic.twitter.com/L6fWivy9P3
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 30, 2024
Ukrainian Defender Taras found a puppy when he served in Kherson region.
The dog was very naughty as a puppy, so the soldiers named her Kosiak (Mistake). Kosiak grew up near Taras and got very attached to her human.
Then, Taras had to send her to a shelter because he was no longer able to care for her. But he promised they would be together again.
In the video, Taras and Kosiak meet again after being apart for three months. Volunteers brought Kosiak to his home in Ternopil – and another puppy for company! You can see how Taras raises two fingers in the video – he didn’t expect to get two dogs, but he’s happy to take him.
📹: uanimals.official/Instagram
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
I generally appreciate your advice, Adam, but no, I will not take the time to read the interview with Trump. I will rely on others to do it for me. Life is short enough.
On another track, are you following the (very worrying, IMO) events in Georgia (the country)?
Harrison Wesley
Good news about Rosie! I hope things continue to look up.
Carlo Graziani
I find it surprising that Ukraine is using its ATACMS rounds on airfields, rather than on deep interdiction of Russian logistical nodes. Dzankhoy is not only the home of a major Russian air base, but also the key rail junction of the entire Crimean peninsula, and those two facts are certainly not unconnected.
I suppose that it says something about the political/military priorities of a nation under remorseless air assault. But in terms of war strategy, it seems to me that there is a greater payoff to be expected from damaging Russian ground lines of communication than by resisting Russian offensives carried out with resources that could have been interdicted before they reach the front, even if that takes the pressure off Russian air assets.
But I’m glad I don’t have to make those calls.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
I am glad that Rosie is doing better, day by day.
YY_Sima Qian
Good to hear about Rosie!
The Russian military using cluster munitions in an open civilian area, there is no low they will not reach in their terror campaign, & all it does to strengthen Ukrainian resolve to resist.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
The ATACMS that were sent to Ukraine have anti-personnel/light vehicle cluster warheads, not unitary warheads of the more modern blocks, that are bunker busters.
So, radars, S-400 SAMs, warehouses, parked aircraft, unhardened buildings, etc, not bridges or bunkers.
Another Scott
@Carlo Graziani: Several people (Hodges, Zaluzhny) have argued that “Crimea is the key”. Something I saw yesterday (that I cannot quickly find again) was that continuing to attack airfields, etc., on Crimea will make supply lines into the rest of Ukraine difficult and force major adjustments by VVP’s forces.
Dunno.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: Rail yards and truck parks are great targets for cluster munitions.
MomSense
Rooting for Rosie!!
Will there ever be any accountability for Russia/Putin?
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I am indeed following them.
Adam L Silverman
@Harrison Wesley: Thanks. Me too.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome. And so am I.
Nukular Biskits
As always, Adam, thanks.
Couple of questions:
1. Are we or any other allied nation sending JDAMS/glide bombs to Ukraine? I know their range is limited but I don’t see why Ukraine can’t return the favor at least to Russian units close to the front lines.
2. Are Ukrainians employing any GPS spoofing/jamming to disrupt incoming drones/glide bombs?
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Rail yards are also extremely difficult to put out of service for an extended period of time. Tracks can be relaid very quickly. Russia has also learned to disperse its logistics enough to present too many targets for HIMARS, let alone the much more precious ATACMS.
I suspect Ukraine is looking to attrit Russia’s higher end SAMs, to create a more permissive environment for the F-16s that are coming in a few months. Otherwise, the F-16s will not make nearly as much impact as people are hoping for.
YY_Sima Qian
@Nukular Biskits: GPS guided JDAMs are as vulnerable to GPS spoofing or jamming as the GPS guided Excalibur howitzer shells or GLSDBs. Given the relative inaccuracy of the jerry-rigged Russian glide bombs, as well as the limitations of GLONASS, I suspect these kits are relying primarily upon inertial guidance, which is un-jammable.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
and are easily repaired, unlike aircraft, SAM systems, radar systems, hangers, unhardened buildings.
You also might not have noticed, but it’s the KAB’s, Air launched cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and Su-25’s pounding Ukraine cities and defences, not Iranian drones.
Another Scott
My immediate reaction on reading the news about Israel’s Patriot systems being decommissioned is that Bibi and the IDF will likely attempt to use them as bargaining chips. Impressing upon Biden to do something (somehow) about the ICC arrest warrants, or something similar.
The TimesofIsrael.com story about them makes them sound like they think they’re overhyped pieces of junk. If Israel really feels that way about them, I’m sure Biden would be happy to take them off the IDF’s hands… Grr…
Maybe the Pentagon and Biden knew of these plans months ago and knew that Bibi wouldn’t give them up as long as the Supplemental was still in limbo.
I guess we’ll find out eventually. Maybe in coming weeks. Politics is slow…
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: @Jay: You know, heaven forfend that I should wish that Syrsky and his colleagues substitute my judgment for their own. But “easily repaired, hence pointless” is, in my opinion, a bad argument.
This is about priorities, not feasibility. A modern-day “rail plan” could be made to work if imagined creatively—for example, using intel to catch ammo trains in-depot, or using double-tap strikes to catch repair crews and their gear (I mean, sauce for the goose is absolutely sauce for the gander). And, destroying a few hundred Russian trucks might be more significant to Ukrainian chances of succeeding in 2024 than all the tank-kabooms on Xitter put together.
It’s what you do to succeed that makes a tactic successful, not what you didn’t try because your priorities were elsewhere. And perhaps interdicting air strikes should be a higher priority than interdicting army supply. But that is a choice, and in no sense as obvious a choice as you appear to believe.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Railway_Troops
The ruZZian military is not palletized. As a result, everything has to be loaded/off loaded by hand. As a result, there are no massive arms depots or ammo stockpiles. Everything is piecemeal. The ruZZian’s drink water from mudpuddles and collect rainwater, food and ammo get delivered by a single bukhanka,, which looks like a 1960’s Dodge van, but with 4WD. Think Scooby Do.
While there are some transportation targets worth hitting, Kerch Bridge, Ukraine lacks the weapons to cause permanent damage.
During WWII, the Allies had a massive bombing campaign against Nazi railroads and the transportation system. It was not effective until the last year of the war, when Allied air supremacy gave fighter pilots and ground attack aircraft enough spare time and ammo, to fly around, shooting up anything that moved, after achieving their assigned mission set.
last year, ruZZia spent a massive amount of missiles, bombs, shells targeting Ukrzaliznytsia, they killed some workers, some passengers, some power transfer stations, but the biggest impact that all had, was making the train to Kharkiv an hour late.
Andrya
Talking Points Memo has a really good article about TIFG saying that he’ll stop aid to Ukraine if the Europeans don’t “equalize”. Bottom line: what the Europeans do has no impact on the American defense budget, which TIFG doesn’t care about reducing anyway. It’s all about setting up a transactional framework, setting allies and adversaries in competition, to see who makes the highest bid. (And by “highest bid” is meant benefit for TIFG personally, not the country as a whole.)
It’s paywalled, but here here is a gift link. (I hope the link works- this is the first time that I did this!)
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: At times like this I find your style of argument mystifying and frustrating.
Of course, I do understand the primitive logistical practices that plague the Russian army, as I’ve read a good deal about them, and even occasionally written about them. I know about the palletization bottleneck. But I’m amazed that you should cite it here, because that bottleneck makes Russian trucks, truck parks, and marshalling yards more valuable targets than would otherwise be the case.
And your claim that the Russians operate no massive supply dumps is just bunk. No army operates on that basis, because that would require either failure or magic. Here is a journal article from 2022 that has a detailed description of Russian logistical practice. TL;DR is that major rail supply nodes (in this case Belgorod and Rostov) feed lesser nodes, essentially by narrow rail links, and the last 150 km or so of the chain is relegated to truck transport. Every node in this chain is vulnerable to attack. And the implication is that destroying a few dozen vulnerable, badly protected trucks parked at a supply dump is better than annihilating an artillery tube, or a company of tanks.
Also, the reason I used the phrase “Rail Plan” was to make a direct reference to the strategic dilemna faced during WWII by USAAF in 1944, when Spaatz wanted to pursue the “Oil Plan”—saturation bombing of Nazi-controlled POL industry—while SHAEF was insisting on USAAF fully engaging the “Rail Plan”—a time-limited tactical effort to isolate the Normandy beachhead from German reinforcement by creating a “rail desert” in Northern France. The two objectives were not comparable or even comnensurate, and it is absurd to claim that the Rail Plan “failed”: it made a significant contribution to the security of the leading echelons of the assault, and to the ultimate success of the expedition, whose grip on the Normandy coast, and ability to avoid a stalemate, was in great doubt for the six weeks preceding the breakout. But that objective was a secondary priority to USAAF, which felt that it might win the war with no need for any ground assault by depriving the Germans of POL through the Oil Plan. That priority conflict explains a lot of bureaucratic struggle over the two competing plans, as well as a great deal of very motivated historical reasoning to justify one Plan over the other.
That is the real point here. Dismissing one or another approach as infeasible is the petty, low-level dispute. The high-level dispute, the one worth having, is analogous to “is it better to prevent the Germans from endangering OVERLORD or to deprive them of the ability to make war by eliminating their capacity to make fuel and lubricants?” In this case, i’s analog is “is there more value in destroying Russian assets such as attack helos and ordnance at bases such as RuN Dzankhoy, or to undermine the Russian ability to make war by destroying their capacity to supply their army offensives?” Once one decides which is the correct priority, one allocates effort, resources, and ingenuity required to succeed.
Westyny
Thanks, Adam. And good news about Rosie.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani: Pretty sure, given Ukrainian intelligence, combat experience, strategy and tactics, in 11 years of ongoing war with ruZZia, vastly outweighing even their NATO Allies knowledge and experience,
That Ukraine has a priority list of targets for the few, precious M39A1 Block 1 ATACMS that they have received, that fits THEIR intelligence, strategy and tactics for shaping the battlefield to THEIR best advantage.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
Oh, BTW, I am pretty sure that the Biden Administration is still “geofencing” Ukraine. There are lot’s of juicy targets in ruZZia proper, with in range of M39A1 Block 1 ATACMS fired from Free Ukraine, that Ukraine has not hit, (other than with their own domestic weapons), including all the TU-22M bases and Mig-35 bases, but so far, the only M9A1 Block 1 strikes have been in Occupied Ukraine.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Ukraine has & will have far too few ATACMS in its arsenal, so they have to be used against targets w/ the greatest impact.
Spitballing here, but a rail yard struck by an ATACMS could probably be repaired (tracks relaid) in a couple of days. So, to shut down a rail yard for two weeks takes 7 ATACMS. Those same 7 ATACMS could take our 3 – 4 S-400 batteries (assuming ~ 50% success rate). This is not 2022 any more, Russia has been laying additional tracks in the occupied territories along the land bridge from Mariupol to Crimea, so Ukraine could no longer paralyze the logistics along the entire corridor by strike a single railroad junction. Even severely disrupting the operations at a single rail yard for two weeks merely alleviates the pressure on the Ukrainian defenders in a single section of the front for that period of time. It does not appear Ukraine has the reserves to take full advantage of such disruption & mount local counteroffensives.
OTOH, taking out 3 – 4 batteries of the RuAF’s latest & best SAM systems, goes further toward creating a more permissive operating environment for the F-16s that Ukraine will be receiving in the coming months. All the more so if Russia is forced to pull the remaining SAM batteries further back to mitigate risk. W/ a more permissive environment, the F-16s can then launch standoff submunition dispersers such as the JSWs, which are much cheaper & more readily available than ATACMS, to persistently prosecute targets such as rail yards, & perhaps do so a at time when the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be in better position to fully exploit the opportunity such local disruption to Russian logistics can create. W/o a more permissive operating environment, the F-16s will have limited impact, whether in ground strike or air interdiction.
I think it will be much harder for Russia to replace 3 – 4 S-400 batteries than to repair a rail yard.