Brian Beutler puts it all together in long form:
While closing the country to foreign Muslims altogether is a radical idea relative to our founding ideals and current policy, it is but an incremental step relative to the outer bounds of legitimate debate in the GOP primary. Republican presidential candidates have supported discriminating against Muslims in our refugee policy, and opposed the very notion of a Muslim-American president, all without subjecting themselves to universal condemnation. The most surprising part of the latest Trump story is that it proves a Republican candidate can take Islamophobia too far for his party’s tastes.
For most liberals, and for the Trump-backing or Trump-curious segments of the right, the Trump phenomenon needs little further explanation. The only people who claim to be befuddled by the Trump phenomenon are officials on knife-edge in the party he leads.
On the left, the view that Republicans allowed the conservative grassroots to turn their party into a political action committee for white ressentiment has evolved over the years from an argument into a creed. Since at least 2012, liberals have been warning (at times mockingly, but never disingenuously) that by indulging and at times fanning the hostilities and procedural extremism of this part of their coalition, Republicans were letting expediency get the better of them.
When large swaths of the conservative movement resisted the notion that the GOP needed to widen its appeal to minorities, and could win by appealing to a broader base of whites, it was liberals who warned that these voters would drag the party into a racial abyss.
Trump is the fulfillment of that prophecy. Better than any Republican candidate in recent memory, he intuits the mood of the disaffected Republican electorate. Or rather, because he’s almost entirely uninterested in straddling party factions, he gives voice to their paranoia and racism without massaging it the way the pretenders to his lead do. It’s possible to imagine a more traditional politician, like Ted Cruz, taking up Trump’s mantle without ever making Reince Priebus or House Speaker Paul Ryan angry, but their platforms would look practically identical.
This is the main reason GOP protestations, five months after Trump reached the top of the polls, ring so hollow. Republicans behave as if Trump is both a self-contained phenomenon and a singular mouthpiece for the most important segment of their electorate. An unmetastasized malignancy and a vital organ, simultaneously. The former view serves to reassure the rest of the public (and GOP donors among them) that Trump is merely a passing fad—an unlovely figurehead for a perfectly lovely segment of the voting base. That once he’s gone, everything will return to normal.
Exactly, and conveniently enough we have two more data points today. First up, this lunatic:
A former bodyguard for scofflaw rancher Cliven Bundy was arrested on federal weapons charges in connection with a plot to “lynch” lawmakers and “physically remove” a judge.
Schuyler Barbeau appeared Monday in federal court in Washington state after a confidential informant notified the FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force about alleged threats the right-wing patriot made against law enforcement and public officials, reported the Seattle Times.***
“Nay, war against our government is inevitable,” Barbeau posted Nov. 16 on his Facebook page. “Things are going to happen soon and before election. It doesn’t matter if obama is still in office or not and if he declares martial law. Revolution will happen. Don’t be fooled, it will not be civil war. It will be revolution. Restoring the constitutional republic can only happen by removing the De facto corporate democracy through a revolution.”
He also plotted to “physically remove” a California judge overseeing an unrelated misdemeanor weapons charge Barbeau faces in that state.
Barbeau, who claims he was a member of Bundy’s security detail during an armed standoff last year with federal agents, was reportedly arrested last week on federal weapons charges while riding near Seattle with Allen Aenk — who describes himself as the leader of the “Sheepdog” militia.
Let’s go back to the wayback machine and see just how our GOP handled Cliven Bundy, a low rent scumbag who trumped up his evasion of paying for feeding his cattle into the conservative cause du jour, an armed insurgency against the federal government:
US Senator Dean Heller: Last week, during a debate with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Heller said that he thought the Bundy ranchers were patriots. “What Sen. Reid may call domestic terrorists, I call patriots,” Heller said. He added that he wanted hearings to figure out “who’s accountable for this.”
Senator and Presidential Candidate Ted Cruz: On Tuesday, Ted Cruz called the Bundy standoff the “the unfortunate and tragic culmination of the path that President Obama has set the federal government on.” He added that the reason he believed the story was “resonating” was that the Obama administration has put American liberty “under assault…we have seen our constitutional liberties eroded under the Obama administration.”
Us Senator and Presidential candidate (kinda sorta- he’s declared but the voters haven’t seemed to notice) Rand Paul: Like Abbott, Paul focused more on the policy issue. “There is a legitimate constitutional question here about whether the state should be in charge of endangered species or whether the federal government should be,” Paul told Fox News earlier this week. “But I don’t think name calling is going to calm this down,” he added, referring to Reid’s “domestic terrorists” remark.
I’d say Harry Reid pretty much nailed what Bundy and his supporters are, as today’s arrest more than proves.
Data Point #2- this sociopath:
Robert Lewis Dear, the suspect in the Nov. 27 attack at Planned Parenthood in Colorado Springs, yelled in court on Wednesday that he is guilty.
“I am guilty there will be no trial. I am a warrior for the babies,” he said in an outburst in El Paso County court overheard by CBS4 reporter Rick Sallinger.
The outburst came as lawyers were starting to discuss a motion to allow a camera in the courtroom. The hearing on Wednesday was scheduled to be a formal filing of charges against Dear.
Let’s start with a little mockery of the assholes who were claiming we couldn’t tell what Dear’s motives were when he shot up and tried to blow up a Planned Parenthood.
Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz is the latest presidential candidate trying to downplay the role anti-abortion rhetoric may have played in motivating the Planned Parenthood shooting in Colorado Springs Friday afternoon. When a reporter asked him at an Iowa campaign stop Sunday evening about suspect Robert Lewis Dear saying he was motivated by “no more baby parts,” Cruz countered that he’s also been reported to be a “transgendered [sic] leftist activist.”
Cruz explained, “We know that he was a man registered to vote as a woman.” This discrepancy on Dear’s voter registration was first reported by The Gateway Pundit, a self-described “right-of-center news website,” under the claim that he “identifies as [a] woman.” Conservatives have since run with the claim that Dear is transgender.
There is actually no evidence to suggest that he is transgender, nor a “leftist,” nor any kind of activist. In fact, all of the available information suggests he was none of those things.
And now let’s move on to the rhetoric. I’m not even going to cut and paste it, I’ll just give you a google search string:
Have fun with that.
So let’s bring this all together- what we are seeing with Trump is not some shocking outlier. It’s simply the end result of Republicans normalizing more and more extreme positions and using crazy people to obtain political power, with no actual concern for what damage their base (said crazy people) are doing to the nation. It’s not even tangential- it’s a direct fucking line. An as soon as the crazy idea of the day becomes the received view in the wingnut echo chamber, they lurch to the right with something more outrageous.
For someone to be shocked at Trump’s latest Muslim gambit, one would have had to have ignored everything that has been said and done over the past few decades. It was only just a couple days ago that Trump was suggesting killing the families of suspected terrorists. A ban on all Muslims shouldn’t surprise anyone. As Greg Sargent reports- 61% of GOP likely voters support the ban. You built this, Dr. Frankenstein.
Related: Rachel Maddow had a clip on the Overton Window last night
that I will embed when I can find it. that was very good.
“Nay?” Verily, it’s always cosplay with these assholes.
Meanwhile, Muslims United For San Bernardino Famlies has raised almost $100,000 to benefit the families of the murder victims.
Al Sharpton said that he felt he was at a Trump rally today, rather than the Supreme Court. Roberts and Scalia went full racist. Roberts although a tad more dignified. He just wanted to know what a minority could add to a Physics class.
So that’s exactly what the Village media and “establishment” GOP will (continue to) do.
With trump and scalia, peak wingnut has surely been finally achieved?
@JPL: Well, I once had a Physics professor tell me that I was “taking a man’s seat” in his class. Purdue in the ’70s.
but… both sides do it!
and what is scary… no matter what, there is no bridge too far for the members of the tribe. I fully expect Donald Trump (or whatever gets the GOP nom) to pull in a floor of 44% in a national election and I fully expect the good people of Texas to return Gohmert to Congress.
No. What it shows is that Trump has worn out his welcome generally, and this is a point where the other candidates and their proxies feel comfortable confronting him. I think they’re wrong to feel comfortable there- a large part of the party base likes what he’s saying and will just get angrier at the establishment for confronting Trump on this point- but that’s what it really amounts to.
Tricky Dick and Spiro planted this crop almost half a century ago. The GOP has been dutifully cultivating and watering it ever since. Now hardly anyone can remember the time before this stinking field was growing in America. The harvest is ripe. Enjoy it’s fruits.
Seeing as how it is statistically likely the most academically gifted person in the world is an Oriental girl … quite a lot, actually.
On TCM right now: Seven Days in May.
Mike in NC
At this rate the GOP will draft Cliven Bundy to run for president in 2020.
“The most surprising part of the latest Trump story is that it proves a Republican candidate can take Islamophobia too far for his party’s tastes.”
Bull shit. The reason why the establishment is calling him out is because they are gonna lose presidency and most likely the congress too with this racist clown leading them down the death spiral. It’s all about power with the thugs, not about people.
@Mnemosyne (iPhone): BTW, Did you see that the lyrics from the cast album of “Hamilton” are available for download at the Atlantic Records site? A few other goodies as well.
Gotta run, but feel free to jot the link down again in another thread, if you haven’t done so already.
And yet, their “confrontation” with Trump amounts to “sure he’s saying vile, reprehensible things, but still way better than Hillary Clinton amirite? I mean, she had a private email server!”
The left’s intermittent laments that the GOP puts party over country have never picked up greater traction, thanks in part to the media’s “hey that’s shrill! Besides, both sides!” response to any such insinuation. The GOP’s apparent willingness to follow Trump off the cliff into neofascism may finally give those complaints more of a hearing. But probably not, so long as there’s some anonymous Daily Kos commenter saying something offensive.
@Mike in NC:
He’s probably already on Trump/Cruz/Huck/Carson’s short list for Secretary of the Interior.
Apparently, 150,000+ Brits have signed a petition to bar The Donald from their shores. So many, in fact, that Parliament is now required to discuss the matter. /snicker
Trump isn’t a candidate trying to convince the GOP base voter to vote for him. Trump is a cipher – a cipher with a bullhorn. He is merely the voice of the GOP base – or rather, a core part of the GOP base. That’s why criticisms and attacks on him do not make his polls go down – and are just as likely to make them go up. Attacking Trump is attacking the GOP base.
The path to victory for other GOP candidates is getting enough votes from the rest of the GOP base (namely, wealthy Establishment types) and the non-base part of the GOP coalition (the “independent” GOP leaning voters and others) to vote for them.
Trump may do better when the primaries start than polls are saying (or at least, than telephonic polls are saying) – Trump’s Supporters May Be More Numerous.
But as the also-rans start dropping out, things will change – assuming the rest of the GOP voters coalesce around the alternative.
Regardless, if by some fluke he gets the nomination, he’s toast in the general election. Regardless of how xenophobic a majority of whites are, the combination of voters of color plus non-xeonophobic whites will easily crush Trump.
We are better off pumping Trump up and destroying the other candidates so that we get to face Trump in the general.
The GOP has been heading down this path for decades. It used to be they could hide it with a smirk, a nod, and a wink but Obama has triggered some kind of psychological breakdown and they can’t help themselves anymore.
P.S. “The audio or video on this page requires DRM software that Firefox does not support.”
@Turgidson: The media has a conservative bias. Democrats should be pushing that at every turn.
The GOP worked the refs for decades insisting that the media had a liberal bias. We should be working the refs back.
There are times when I think liberals would prefer to be right, than to win. Which is why they have the reputation of being wimps and losers.
a different chris
@srv: Like how the Party of Personal Responsibility keeps telling us that everything bad that happens to them is somebody else’s fault. And how it’s only Moral Relativism when Democrats do it.
Cruz is by far more fascist than Trump. He’s the one that MSM will highlight next.
@Fred: This. My biggest frustration with the Trump Show is the media’s continuing campaign to promote the rest of the jackal pack as “reasonable and responsible” candidates unlike the awful Donald. But each and every one of the candidate pool is as bad if not worst than Trump. But it’s not Chuckie Todd’s job to gather information and compare and contrast.
And John, this is one of the best pieces I’ve read on the Trump phenomenon. You’re one of the few who understands the the seeds from which he has sprung. I also appreciate the article you referenced. Thank you.
Yeah, I think the “liberal media bias” trope is so embedded in people’s brains that liberals think it’s futile to suggest the opposite. The only way to start changing that belief is to keep saying it and offering examples. It took 20 years, removal of the Fairness Doctrine, and the Telecom Bill in the 90s for the GOP’s complaints to become conventional wisdom. It’s a long term project and might not succeed.
As to “rather be right than win,” that’s one reason why I’m totally comfortable with Hillary Clinton as our nominee for this election. I think she’ll be more willing to do whatever it takes to win than some other recent Democratic nominees have been, up to and including slimy tactics I’m sure I’ll find distasteful. I’m generally concerned by “ends justify the means” thinking, but keeping the GOP out of the presidency at this point, when they’re in the midst of frightening collective psychotic break (and yet hold a depressingly large majority of elected offices throughout the country), is that important. Aim low, Hillary. As long as you win, we’ll forgive you.
@Kathleen: when you compare their platform and positions, it’s like the difference between shit brown and crappy brown…. only nuance of truly fecal proportions.
I agree with Moore and amk, contra Beutler I don’t think it is a matter of going to far for the GOP’s tastes. It suits their tastes just fine. I agree with Cole that the GOP leadership has been cultivating hatred and resentment against any convenient bogeyperson or bogeygroup for decades. The leadership just wants to limit the effects to the grumpy white bigots they are ripping off and abusing to simmer in their chairs in front of Fox News or the NY Post, and get them primed to run out and vote for a GOPer on election day, maybe disrupt a local Congressperson’s townhall.
Sure, there will be some collateral damage. Some random poor schlub BLM worker or a cop assassinated by some right wing nutjubs. PP place shot up once in awhile Unlucky minorities killed or their churches targeted. LGBT don’t get same rights to service or civil contract. But that all gets forgotten soon enough.
Trump is riling people up for action and aggressively advocating noxious public policies that might doom, rather than help their chances in the general election. And, God forbid, if elected the saner (and more cynical) minds in the GOP fear he might be able to implement public policy (e.g., trying to ban all Muslims from entrance to the US, deport undocumented residents, close down ‘suspicious’ mosques without due process) that would prompt multiple Constitutional crises, cause domestic turmoil, and be disastrous policy wrt to our allies and our efforts against our efforts to destroy al Qaeda and Daesh.
If what the GOP has been hinting at and dog whislting for years were really true Trump has taken things to the logical conclusion, and for that reason they really can’t push back against it very hard, otherwise they blow their con.
@Kathleen: Yeah. And I suppose they will double down on that. Poor Jeb?, Rubio, Christie being sullied by Trump. But you have Rand Paul on TV whining that he really thought of the Trump Muslim Exclusion Act first, Jeb? saying only take Christian refugees (with logic like, aw… c’mon, you can tell), Christie saying he would send away five year old orphans.
Trump is like a lunatic mafia thug busting up the joint and burning it down for the insurance money, when the other GOPers know that milking the con is still very profitable.
The others know how to modulate the message to keep things nice and quiet, is all.
@Mnemosyne (iPhone): Good for them!
Rachael is chicken soup for the political soul, isn’t she?
I’m sorry but I don’t fully agree with Bernie there though. He gives everyone massive benefits of the doubts. I think there are many people who are simply haters. They hate any number of others and the current Republican party is telling them to let their freak flags fly (and if they want to let a little lead fly too Republicans (some) will call them heros too). Just like the guy they just arrested up in Washington who said he was Bundy’s bodyguard. There are those who want a revolution. They’re doing everything they can to get that. Republicans are openly pushing them to do that and hoping it’ll be over all our dead bodies. That’s what I think. Liberals maybe should be buying guns too.
The GOP may lose the presidency, but probably not the Congress.
And if there are more attacks here by ISIS or al Qaeda or affiliated groups, the country may well follow Trump into a hole of fear and bigotry.
OT: For the Hamilfans….
The Other Chuck
@Mike in NC: In 2020, Bundy will be too liberal for the GOP.
Specifically: ““What unique perspective does a minority student bring to a physics class?”
So according to Roberts, should the professor stand at the door on the first day of class and ask each student what unique perspective they bring to the class? We should populate our college classes according to a cast list? “I’m sorry, the part of the small-town valedictorian struggling with the Big University is already taken. Can you offer another unique perspective?”
@piratedan7: Ha! But with all due respect I must disagree. Fecal matter serves a useful purpose in the elimination of toxins and maintenance of a healthy organism, so I think with that comparison you’re giving their platform and positions too much credit. Hamlet refers to “a foul and pestilent congregation of vapours”, a phrase which could describe anything from Meet The Press to NPR’s political coverage to GOP “policy proposals”. Verbal flatulence might be a good working description. Or the name of a punk metal band.
mai naem mobile
I know this is going to date me but I really want to see Psycho/Dallas combo SNL skit with Melanoma Trump in the shower scene with Donald Bates Trump ending with Melanoma pretending the campaign was all a dream/nightmare.
Alternately, The Donald wakes up in bed turns to Melanoma and tells her ‘Dear, I had a nightmare that I ran for president and said all kinds of horrible things and ruined the Trump brand forevah!.’ a la Bob Newhart in the best teevee finale evah!
One of the best direct line posts I’ve read discussing the straight line from the dog whistle Repub mainstream to the “reaping what they sow” we are now seeing.
If this doesn’t get out the vote for moderation and progressives, I don’t know what will.
tell me again…Trump’s muslim ban will hurt him?
In the latest Pollster average, Trump, Carson, Fiorina, and Cruz, the anti-establishment wing, combine to 64.3%. Rubio, Bush, Christie, Kasich, Graham, and Pataki, the establishment wing, combine to 22.7%. 3.9% goes to Huckabee, Paul, and Santorum, which might go either way, and 9.1% is undecided/unknown/other. It would need a major shift from the anti-establishment wing to the establishment wing to give an establishment candidate a chance. Even in a three-way race between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, where Trump and Cruz split the anti-establishment vote, it’s going to be hard for Rubio to win, considering the establishment support seem to top out in the mid 30s. It seems to be either Trump or Cruz from the way things are at the moment.
The GOP have been teasing them for a very long time. They wink, wink, promise but don’t deliver. Kill ACA, throw people off welfare, let us freely whup ass on people in the “wrong” religions, people on welfare, people of color, gays, women, immigrants. They feel cheated. They want vengeance.
There was a brief moment of clarity after the 2012 election when the party showed some awareness that their demagoguery of the other was a danger. But as 2014 rolled around, they saw it would play in another election and embraced being the party of stupid.
It’s like the kid who is waned that if they cross their eyes too many times, it’ll stay that way. They kept doing it and now are stuck, and can’t see beyond their own bigoted noses.
I just have one question for those knowledgeable in these things. Can Trump win without minority votes? I know some non whites will vote for him. But at this time I don’t see how he gets any significant minority vote. At my place of work I see a lot of talk and support for Trump along the lines of ” he’s supposed to be a nut but I don’t see what’s wrong with him”. Or “he’s not worse than Obama”. Being a minority I keep my mouth shut. But it seems to me that all the white people I see support him. It’s disheartening. I started a new job and most of my co-workers are not highly educated. It’s scary to think Trump could win.
@Calouste: Unfortunately, there is not one, repeat not one, romneyesque milque toast rino for the repubs to fall back on. The craziest kkklowns car ever. I just hope hillz doesn’t blow it.
I don’t buy it. Trump’s latest pronouncement only goes half a tick past the party mainstream and I think GOPCentral is largely feigning this indignation because they’re looking for anything to derail him.
In fact, it shows us something that both GOPCentral and the liberal left are afraid to admit. Both sides buy in 100% to the premise that the worst, most dangerous violence in the world is perpetrated by Muslim extremists, or extremists who happen to be Muslim. Otherwise our most recent Presidents would have invaded, bombed, and droned somewhere in the world other than Muslim countries, correct? And our news media would give roughly equal attention to violence perpetrated by non-Muslims, right? So that premise is implicit or explicit to both liberals and conservatives (and incorrect, by the way).
Trump’s followers make the logical leap from, “the worst violence in the world is perpetrated by Islamic extremists, even the liberal media says so” to “let’s embargo all Muslims entering the country.” Certainly there is a missing premise there, but the uncomfortable truth is that it’s not a huge logical leap.
The 27%ers will continue making these kids of connections so long as everybody, including Nobel Peace Prize winning liberals, keeps making explicit or implicit the faulty first premise.
@agorabum: That moment of clarity was closely followed by another moment of clarity when they realized that demagoguery and various sorts of race/ethnic/class/religious resentment fear and hate are all they got to get them through the next couple of election cycles.
Edit: My pet theory is that the cynical GOP political leaders who I don’t believe for second believe all the BS they pump out are, consciously or unconsciously boxed in. They can’t change their political and economic dogmas for fear their sugar daddies will abandon or turn on them, but those same dogmas have not produced anything for their bigot dupe followers but misery, and regularly end up in disaster. What to do?
Lol. Long live “I blame Obama.”
@Randy P: The perspective that science isn’t just for white people?
Great post, John. Nicely done. Thanks for putting it together!
@rk: The poll is old now, and I anxiously wait for a new one, but a plurality of non-Hispanic Whites said they would not even consider voting for him ever in a general election. I wonder how much that has changed recently.
Gin & Tonic
@lamh36: Um, that’s South Carolina. They’re all fucking nuts there.
I can’t believe Miranda is making me a rap fan. Wayne Brady is really cute too.
I tried to cover all the network news to see who would talk about Scalia’s remarks. The winner will be announced at a later time, because even CBS who covers the Court, had nothing to say.
“Radicalized terrorist” must be tweaked on the Twitter algorithm to not be allowed to trend, like they do with pop and movie star names. (To keep same names off from dominating the trend list all the time, which would make it less sale-able)
Because immediately following the release of the “Warrior for the Babies” news it was non-stop variations of “Where was this terrorist radicalized? Who radicalized this terrorist?” (Confess to contributing a few myself.)
Self-confessed terrorist, alive and in custody, aren’t they going to find out what web sites, videos, political leaders, preachers, and materials turned him into a radicalized terrorist? Who armed him? When did his radicalism start?
Wonder if there will be any effort, any where, to expose this terrorist? Or like “isolated incident” Dylan Roof it’s “just” another, disturbed lone wolf
The Republican base has had the likes of Limbaugh, Levin, Hannity, et al, feeding them a daily dose of hatred, fear and paranoia for the better part of four decades. They’ve been told the fulfillment of their dearest wishes is right around the corner for about the same amount of time. Trump tells them he’s going to give them exactly what they want, and doesn’t give a shit who else he offends in the process. He’s the logical conclusion to a long deliberate process which the Villagers have determinedly ignored – until now, when the stench produced by the process has become too great to ignore.
Hence the spectacle of many members of the Republican establishment and Villager types looking at each and going “Who farted? I don’t know, was it you?”
@Heliopause: loony left lives on.
eta. both sides do it and both sides share the blame.
as clayton bigsby, black white supremacist, said, ‘if you’ve got hate in your heart, let it out!’ republican words to live by.
David Brooks, is that you?
If our most recent US Presidents would be really concerned about dangerously violent extremists that cause tens of thousands of American deaths each year, they could have bombed the NRA headquarters, but I think that is considered bad form.
In theory yes. In practice, I don’t see how. Even Bush-the-Shrub needed Hispanic votes in 2004 to win. Obama won 43% of the white vote in 2008 and 39% in 2012. Given how the white vote should be 69-70% of overall voters in 2016 White Democratic Party sucks the oxygen from an All White elected President.
I can assure even the majority of white people are appalled at the Dumpster. I am sorry you work in such a shitty place, I have a handful of wingnuts where I work and most (though not all) are unhappy with Trump & even more unhappy when I point out he is not saying anything the GOP hasn’t been saying in a nicer sounding way.
The problem is any GOP candidate, even the Dumpster, is going to get about 40% of the national vote simply because of the large number of morons that voter & the larger percentage of people who can’t be bothered to vote.
I’m not convinced they’re ready to stop ignoring it on an enduring basis. They’re desperate for Trump’s Muslim Ban stupidity to be a one-off event they can spend a couple days tsk-tsking before going back to their comfortable “both sides do it but Obama’s really to blame” rut.
@JPL: Given how the Conservatives Judges have eviscerated the Voting Rights Act, no one can be surprised at anything they have to say about racial minorities. They’re a reflection of Republicans/Fox News/Tea Baggers.
This is why we need to vote next November. Replacing retiring Judges with progressives is a must. No more Scalias!!
@rk: I assume you’re in a red state because all Whites do not support Trump. I assume he’ll get 60+% of the White vote (especially White men). I don’t see him getting much of the Black vote. Not sure if he could get 25+% of the Latino vote given his nasty comments about Mexicans and immigrants. President Obama got around 72% of the Asian vote and I doubt Secretary Clinton would do worse than that.
We’ll have to wait and see though since I would hope that if Trump were the Republican nominee, the Democratic nominee would pummel him.
Wonder if Il Douche would approve a national registry of crazy white boys…
I’m glad Thomas doesn’t say anything. I cringe at the thought of what he might say in these types of cases.
If Hillary is the Democratic nominee I suspect she’ll bump the white woman vote up to 50/50 from 46/54 in 2014. At which point the GOP nominee — whoever he is — is toast.
Zuckerberg is on a roll lately.
In principle, yes. But he’d need something like 70% of the white vote.
Stop opposing our craziness. It’s driving us ca-RAY-ZEE!
@Matt McIrvin: I fear Redeemer/Klan type violence and intimidation at polling places in certain areas.
…my estimate that Trump would need 70% of the white vote assumes that turnout follows current trends. Presumably a Trump nomination would be an intense motivator for minorities to turn out and vote against him, though it might energize his fans too. And of course I can’t estimate any potential effect of new vote-suppression efforts.
I’m not convinced of that at all. A lot, yes. A majority? That’s a strong statement.
J R in WV
I really really want to believe that Trump can’t and won’t get much more than a bare majority of white votes, and that the strong push by minority and Hispanic voters will put the Democratic candidate in the White House.
Not to mention the congress…
But sometimes it is really hard to believe that Trump is doomed.
This is from the NYTimes..
In a remark that drew muted gasps in the courtroom, Justice Antonin Scalia said that minority students with inferior academic credentials may be better off at “a less advanced school, a slower-track school where they do well.”
wtf is a muted gasp…..
Maybe you can replace Breyer with a newer model, but he’s only 77 and probably has another 10 years in him, as Supreme Court justices seem to have long life span.
Or if Ginsberg’s health takes a turn for the worse, you can replace her.
Like Breyer, Scalia and Kennedy are only in their late 70’s and thanks to miracles of modern medicine (which also keeps Ginsberg going) they’ll be on the bench for another 10 years, unless Kennedy decides to retire in the next few years.
Scalia will die first, rather than retire.
So basically, if there are no unforeseen turns in health or accidents that would hurt the health of Scalia, Kennedy or Thomas, the next chance to flip the court’s current 5-4 balance will be 2024.
Like with the appointments of Sotomayor and Kagan, the best Hillary could hope for is to keep the four Democratic votes on the bench.
Edit: I don’t think Democratic appointments to the Supreme Court have been a majority, since the 1960’s. I know the last Democratic President to appoint a Chief Justice was Harry Truman. I wonder how much of our right-ward drift politically is due to Republican domination of the Supreme Court for the last 45 years.
The Other Chuck
@Calouste: I think in this case, I have to agree with the Brooksian view. The majorities of republicans and democrats tend to buy into the Islamist-Boogeyman theory. There’s more on the left who point out the atrocities of Christianist gun nuts, but sadly it’s still a pretty small percentage willing to call the NRA a terrorist organization. BJ is not quite mainstream.
@gene108: Scalia is 79 and will be 80 by the time Hillary is elected. Although that is not necessary old, it doesn’t appear that he has taken care of himself. Also I’m thinking of sending him 100 year old whiskey for the next time he hunts with Cheney. Is there hundred old whiskey?
Short answer: no. Longer answer: Romney lost in 2012 despite getting around 30% each of the Hispanic and Asian American vote and about 7% of the Black vote. If you set those all to 0% but leave the voting rates the same, the Republicans manage to lose Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, and Alaska. They would have to win something like 8% more of the white vote to make up for that and swing enough votes their way to take the election. Of course, that’s assuming that participation rates remain the same; a campaign based on xenophobia might help with white turnout, but it might also drive up minority turnout.
This is the basic problem of Republican electoral calculus. The demographics are against them because groups that are an increasing percentage of the population lean Democratic. They can win if they can get out the white vote without pissing off minorities, but they’re having a harder and harder time doing that. If they try to pander to racist whites, they risk driving minorities away- and making them more politically active- which may or may not help in the short term depending on the relative effectiveness but will kill them in the long term. If they stop pandering to racist whites, they risk losing white votes- or at least white turnout- and won’t necessarily win many minority votes, since they’ve earned those minorities’ distrust.
The Other Chuck
@JPL: 70 year is about as old as you’ll find in any store, and you’re talking about specialty import stores ordering it for the low low price of “everything you’ve got”. I’d send him some Johnny Walker Red instead, just tell him drinking it will make liberals cry. Actually I’d send him a bag of poop.
Liberal With Attitude
Am I the only one picking up on the increasing frequency of phrases like “Corporate elite” in the right wing ravings?
I’m not entirely sure what to make of it.
@JPL: send him the stuff Draco tried to send to Dumbledore.
No matter how crazy the GOP gets, they have folk like St. Joe of the Morning to tell me the other day that 35-40% of Democrats think George Bush was behind 9-11. Now a couple of things: I’ll grant that many Democrats may think GWB was indifferent to warning about a potential attack(“OK, now you’ve covered your ass”), and back in the days when I followed GOS on a daily basis(back during the GWB admin) 9-11 CT’s were a justification for immediate banning.
So yes, both sides have an equal number if crazies; if you pull the number for Dems out of your ass.
@BillinGlendaleCA: The other major difference is that our crazy doesn’t make it up to our political leadership the way it does with the GOP.
@Roger Moore: Leaving aside disenfranchisement issues, will the Rethugs motivate African Americans enough to overcome what may be a natural falloff in voting turnout for HRC vis BHO?
Black Twitter has lifted my spirits after the day I had…
I love #STAYMADABBY
My favorite one:
best bi @hermosx
White people will always get mad when for the first time, their mediocrity isn’t praised like it’s always been. #StayMadAbby
I don’t know how things stand now, but at the start of his campaign Trump’s comments about illegal immigrants stealing jobs were well received by some blacks and Hispanics, who presumably had a vested interest.
It’s easy to nobly refuse to decry illegal immigration when it doesn’t directly affect you.
Of course you can also flip that around and ask whether the Republicans will win as much of the white vote with Obama off the ballot.
@jl: Yes. I totally agree.
I am thinking there are some somber discussions being had with Scalia this evening, cautioning him that so far he’s got a legal legacy but he’s at risk of leaving a legacy of inflammatory rhetoric if he’s losing his capacity for measuring his speech.
I suspect he doesn’t give a shit, but people who care about that legacy and the honor of the court are going to care enough to try. Would be nice to have enough Dem Senators to at least threaten an impeachment, but I don’t think that’s likely.
jake the antisoshul soshulist
@Liberal With Attitude:
It is the right wing populism. I hear a lot of raving about crony capitalism, with Democrats being the ones with the rich cronies. According to some Soros, Buffett and Jeffrey Emmert are the only rich people in the world.
Being that the Senate doesn’t impeach, it might be helpful for House Dems to do that.
@jake the antisoshul soshulist: Those Kochs are just pikers.
Gosh, I hope Keith G’s #ListeningLunches outreach will counter all this. ??
@Baud: Wait; you, HRC, Bernie and Martin don’t believe that GWB had button that brought down Building 7?
Of course not. Everyone knows Cheney was the mastermind.
@Roger Moore: That’s a fairly optimistic thought. I’m having major difficulties processing…
@BillinGlendaleCA: That’s an easier bar to reach. You only need a majority in the House but 2/3 in the Senate.
@Roger Moore: Trump on the ballot could motivate white racists as strongly as Obama on the other side.
Iowa Old Lady
@? Martin: Who would Scalia listen to? I suspect he’s charmed by his own words.
Interesting. Rachel reporting that Rubio has no ground game in early states.
I believe that should be, “Rubio has nearly as many field operatives as Baud!”
I don’t want to peak too soon.
ask Neil de gasse.
@Iowa Old Lady:
Well, he is a lawyer.
@Omnes Omnibus: Figured I’d get that from at least you, heh.
I don’t buy it. Trump’s latest pronouncement only goes half a tick past the party mainstream and I think GOPCentral is largely feigning this indignation because they’re looking for anything to derail him.
At the risk of wandering into conspiracy theory territory, I wonder how much of this backlash is due to the GOP establishment realizing that it needs to preserve its relationship with the House of Saud and other Muslim despotisms. The spice must flow, and all that.
@BillinGlendaleCA: dementia onset? his clerks could cover up issues regarding writing, but public actions and speech…
@gene108: Keep in mind, all that’s necessary is for one of them to die, and be replaced by someone of different ideology, for the balance to shift.
The life expectancy for someone nearing 80 is around 10 years, and for someone with the health care afforded a Supreme Court justice it’s probably a bit longer, but life expectancy is the time required for a probability of death of 50%. I suspect that the probability that one of the conservatives dies before 2025 is higher than 50%, if not by much.
@Iowa Old Lady: RBG, probably Alito and Roberts. Probably a bunch of other legal folks that he’s got long histories with. His family. He’s got 9 kids. There are people in there who he listens to.
@Omnes Omnibus: Dude, you know he’s not wrong. ;)
@? Martin: ::side-eye::
It’s the level of stupidity that’s so breathtaking. I almost drove off the road when I heard Glenn Beck (who fancies himself to be a Constitutional scholar) proclaim that Cliven Bundy had all of the qualities of a Founder.
Juan Cole had a depressing history of how many times the US has excluded various groups, primarily due to religion.
Most only ended in 1965.
Great post John. When you bring it, you really bring it.
I encourage folks to share this post with others – it quite succinctly summarizes at least the last 25 years of American politics, and probably longer.
If this shit is not enough to convince folks to get out and vote, we deserve what we get.
If this insanity is not enough to motivate Dems to register every possible voter we can, we have it coming.
And if any minority would actually vote for these fascists – I don’t care how rich they are – then they too will deserve what they get.
@Liberal With Attitude:
The right wing base – rural folks in Iowa, for example – hate the corporate elite. They hated the TARP bail out and special ties to Wall Street, such as they though Eric Cantor had.
This is the fault line in Republican politics between the Fundy base and corporate loving Establishment that Trump has really brought into view.
@gene108: Populism is generally against elites. The question is which elites it targets. Sometimes, intellectuals, artists, and educated people in general get targeted.
There’s nothing conspiratorial about it, nor limited to the GOP. You’ve hit on exactly why both GOPCentral and the Nobel Peace Prize winner are queasy on the issue. Both have armed the beheading psychopaths in Riyadh to the teeth and need them to enforce larger geopolitical aims in the region. So they both have to walk the tightrope of keeping the rubes at home terrified of something or other and keeping the client state in good graces.
@Mike in NC:
VP slot in 2016. Not much crazier than Palin, really.
Come the fuck on…
If impeachment is not threatened, this would be a tactical error.
@Scapegoat: Trying to move forward an impeachment that will not succeed is not a good tactic or strategy.
And Cruz appears to be the more dangerous one if he somehow manages to slither his way to the top of the shit-covered pole. Trump is a fascist of convenience. Cruz, he’s one of conviction.
On point, Cole.
But, they coddled Trump as he was the BIRTHER-IN-CHIEF
poo-pooing, and kee hee-ing as he insulted THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES – for YEARS.
and, what the hell was BIRTHERISM -if not, pure-D racism?
So, these muthaphuckas, and that includes Sargent at the Plum Line, can miss me, talking about the RECENT racism of Trump..
where the hell was he when he was talking Birth Certificates and College Transcripts?
Oh, I guess those were just dogwhistles…so, folks in the MSM could pretend that they were anything other than the racism that it was.
I feel as though we have been transported to an alternate universe. We are now on Gulliver’s island and the Lilliputians rule the world. Here on the island our Lilliputian media reporters are covering the debate entitled “Is the earth round or flat” as if this is a serious discussion of reality. We inhabit a world in which every metaphor that used to represent a descent into ridiculousness is now considered an equally accurate point of view.
Lucky Mr. Gulliver woke up eventually to a world he recognized as normal. We may not be so lucky. We are being asked to consider more than one Presidential candidate who believes that a certain bible outlines the proper sociological rules for our modern civilization. More than one candidate running for President believes creationism is scientific fact and that evolution is just an educated guess: the disdain for education being a primary function to achieve their goal.
The sad but funny thing is that now that our opposition has succeeded in bringing about this devolution into a medieval mindset where reality has been turned into a map which designates this uncharted territory as “there be monsters”, they seem utterly terrified of the monsters they themselves have created.
Our new literary reference should now include “A Canticle for Leibowitz”. It is more appropriate for the new nuclear medieval age.