It ain’t over ‘til it’s over. But after last night, it seems very likely that Hillary Clinton will be our nominee. I don’t think Bernie Sanders will or should drop out any time soon. He’s got a passionate base of supporters and plenty of money to make sure his issues continue to get attention. That’s all good as far as I’m concerned; I like Bernie, and I am confident he knows how important it is for a Democrat to win in November, even if that Democrat isn’t him.
I’ve seen some paranoid speculation in comments here and elsewhere online that Team Hillary or the Machiavellian DWS will undertake some sort of Bernie supporter purge. Not gonna happen. And while a tiny subset of the Bernie faction is writing GBCW posts at DU and DKos and promising to sit out the election, I continue to believe their antics won’t amount to a fart in a whirlwind come election time, just like the PUMAs before them. The biggest crybabies are Jill Stein voters anyway because Obama is an Eisenhower Republican, as everyone knows.
Anyhoo, it’s also looking likely that Donald Trump will represent the Republicans, possibly after a damaging convention tussle. But ultimately, I think the Repubs will line up behind The Donald because that’s what they do. Is America dumb and crazy enough to elect Trump? Nothing is impossible. The Shrub got elected (for the first time) in 2004 when everyone already knew he was the dumb-ass who screwed the pooch in Iraq. There’s no telling what issues will crop up between now and November to stir things up.
But I like our chances. I don’t think I’m particularly naïve about the nature of this country, and I live in a wingnut area, so it’s not like I don’t know plenty of folks who will vote for Trump. But I don’t think he will win the general. Thus far, he’s been appealing to the nastiest, dumbest, whiniest subset of Americans — AKA, the Republican Party base — and failing to crack 50%. I have to believe a general election audience will find him too braggy, ignorant, hateful and just plain embarrassing to represent us in the world.
Also, I look forward to the Clinton-Trump debates. As someone who watched in horror as the Beltway press made the empty-headed Dubya the “winner” of the Bush-Gore debates by creating subterranean expectations, I understand what’s coming. But I think valued commenter Eemom nailed it last night when she said, “it’s gonna be the equivalent of a ‘debate’ between a tantrum-throwing two year old and a lifelong preschool teacher.”
Yep, pretty much. Open thread!
Jeffro
Amen about this fall’s Clinton/Trump debates…what a mismatch…
In the meantime, for this…
…I completely agree with you here, Betty.
Why do all Rs and a fair amount of Ds come up with such ridiculous stuff about Clinton? Remember all the underhanded tricks she and Bill were supposedly going to play at the convention (and beyond!) back in 2008? Why would she ‘purge’ the party of its most excited supporters? That’s just silly.
kindness
I agree with just about everything there Betty. From watching Hillary from the 90’s Healthcare debate through her Senate stint and then SOS it looks to me as if she’s learned from her mistakes. Yes, she still makes some mistakes but she makes smaller ones and less frequently than 08. I suspect she’ll start to love her some Bernie openly. There is a certain element out there who will always hate her but I hope those are Republicans and not Dems. For the Dems (and some of my people are these people) I ask them how voting for Nader helped their cause years ago.
schrodinger's cat
I don’t think Trump can win either, he is just plain embarrassing on top of his other flaws.
Jeffro
Also, “embarrassing”: that is the key to taking away whatever attractiveness Trump has as a candidate, even to most of his current supporters. John Oliver was close…Trump is a fool and a fraud. But above all else, the guy is just embarrassing to watch.
Iowa Old Lady
@Jeffro: Didn’t Clinton go into the 2008 convention and propose that Obama be nominated unanimously?
Apart from that, I don’t even know what a “purge” would look like. Sanders supporters have their D party memberships revoked?
Karen
Obama just made them foolish because they said such nice things about Garland before, now they look like idiots. They continue to yap their mouths about how NO Pres has EVER gotten a SCOTUS confirmed in his last year, hell they’ve never even nominating one. And now that they basically said that Dems have no rights to nominate because they’ll never confirm one, where does it get to the point of treason? Where does it reach a point of the actual SCOTUS help deciding?
charluckles
Pleas explain to me the scenario where Donald Trump wins.
The worst mistake liberals could make would be complacency, but I do not see where Donald Trump wins. His appeal is limited and his negatives are unbelievable.
schrodinger's cat
Has anyone checked KLo’s house of crazy?
Patricia Kayden
Great post, Betty. We need to keep our heads up and encourage our friends and family to vote. I have one friend who is arguing that she’s not going to vote for Hillary because Hillary is no different than Trump. My eyes cannot roll back far enough in my head and I have a pretty big head.
I’m hoping that Trump will become even more odious as we go into the general election to the point where people like my friend will be motivated to vote for the Devil Himself to avoid a Trump presidency. I am pretty sure that Trump will oblige me as he has no filter or self awareness.
Germy Shoemangler
p.a.
Don’t underestimate the incompetence of DWS.
Kropadope
@Iowa Old Lady:
Well, I’ve been told here more than a couple times by Hillary supporters that they’ll take my vote but to keep my opinion to myself. That’s a start.
Betty Cracker
@p.a.: I don’t — she’s bad at her job. But doesn’t anyone really think she’s going to set about alienating everyone who supports Sanders? And everyone else is going to just stand around and watch that happen? It just doesn’t make any sense.
singfoom
@charluckles: In my mind, the scenario where Trump wins is where Ds don’t appeal to working class voters who Trump has in his thrall.
Specifically working class voters who haven’t voted in a long time because they feel the system is rigged. It might be kind of far fetched, but that’s my worry. That he ends up bringing a groundswell of previously non voting voters and rides that tide of racism and bigotry and a appeal to their entitlement (and loss thereof) into the white house.
This is unlikely because I think Trump will split the Republican vote and lose the true conservatives to a third party or not voting, but like I said it’s a fear. Which in and of itself is not rational.
Mnemosyne
As I’ve been saying, I’ll be happy to have Bernie keep stumping until June since I don’t have a vote until then (stupid late California primary). Even if he does drop out before then, I may switch to a protest vote for him to keep the pressure on Hillary to stay to the left.
But as anyone who ever played grade-school soccer knows, it’s almost time for Hillary and Bernie supporters to meet in the middle of the field, say, “Good game!” and join together to face the real enemy — the Republicans. Because I don’t just want Trump to lose by a couple of points in the general — I want him to be fucking *humiliated.* And if we all work together, I know my dream can come true.
japa21
@Kropadope: Really, I don’t remember seeing that said by anyone. They have disagreed with your opinion but as long as it is presented in a positive way, nobody has said you can’t express your opinion. And generally, the question has been put towards both sides “If your candidate loses will you vote for the other.”
I have not seen one Clinton supporter answer that question in the negative. There have been a couple, only a couple, of Sanders supporters who have said they were not sure.
dedc79
@srv:
More Republican votes. I know you’re a bit slow, but surely you know the difference between a Republican primary and a general election?
Aimai
@singfoom: uh… Working class white voters who never vote are either going to turn out for trump or not vote like they usually dont vote. But if hrc hangs on to the obama coslition she doesnt need their votes anymore than obsma or clinton did.
Mnemosyne
@Kropadope:
You don’t have to love Hillary, but it would be helpful if you could think of at least one or two reasons people should vote for her instead of Trump and tell them to your friends and family. I saw what happened in 2000 and I’m deathly afraid of another “Republicrats!” meme from the left that lets Trump or Cruz cheat just enough to win. Nader fooled me in 2000 but I won’t be fooled again.
jl
@Iowa Old Lady:
” Didn’t Clinton go into the 2008 convention and propose that Obama be nominated unanimously? ”
I don’t think Sanders can do that and hope to keep the maximal level of his political revolution cadre enthusiastic for the general election. There will have to be, or at the the appearance of, some kind of commitment from HRC to important parts of the Sanders political revolution principles. How that is done is another issue.
Since HRC is publicly adopting and advertising some Sanderisms eagerly, to point that I wonder if she will walk out in a Sanders suit, and point and wave her arms and yell in a gravelly voice some time soon, I don’t think the problem will be HRC. I hope both are willing to work together constructively.
Anyway, I expect Sanders to come to the convention with his delegates and ask or demand that their concerns be addressed. If both HRC and Sanders have the smarts and emotional intelligence of at least a well adjusted bright grade school kid, I expect a happy ending at the convention with hugs and praise all around.
But I am cynical about politicians and their egos, so will keep my fingers crossed until I see it.
Patricia Kayden
@schrodinger’s cat: So embarrassing!
There is nothing that Republicans can say or do to repair the damage that will be done to their party if Trump becomes the face of their party for the general election. Not one thing.
http://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2016-03-14/in-trump-the-world-sees-the-ugly-american
charluckles
@singfoom:
To me the appeal of that kind of naked racism and bigotry is just too limited in this country anymore. For every person that gets motivated to vote for Trump based on racism and bigotry at least one person will be motivated to vote against him.
NonyNony
@singfoom:
Then we’re screwed because none of those guys voting for Trump have voted for Dem since 1980.
Honestly – you think that people who are voting for Trump will turn around and vote for a Dem? I’d like some of whatever you’re smoking because that must be grade A premium stuff.
This election – like every election since at least 2000 – will be about GOTV. Get your supporters to the polls to vote. If Dems and marginal Dems turn out to vote, then they will win. If the marginal Dems don’t turn out then the Republicans will win. it’s that simple. Elections are no longer about convincing a mushy middle of non-partisan people on the fence between Dem and Republican to come over to your side (if they ever were) they’re about getting people who will either vote Dem or not vote at all to show up at the polls instead of staying at home on election day. And Republican elections are the same way (with the added benefit for Republicans that they tend to have to do very little to get their voters to actually show up and vote – which is why they tend to trounce everyone in non-presidential election years).
Mister Forkbeard
You know, it’s extremely unlikely that Hillary gets indicted for Emailghazi but I’d prefer that Bernie stick around anyway just in case. It’s probably personally smart for him to do so, and having him as an alternative to Hillary should an indictment come along is also sound strategic thinking.
In the general, I don’t think Trump can win without some stunning malpractice on the part of both the Media and Democrats. Which means he definitely has a high chance. :)
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Aimai
@Mnemosyne: right. I have nothing agsinst sanders going all the way till june. In fact i think its good for the party snd good for the country if he makes his pitch as long as he can. With the proviso that i wsnt him to run against trump and the rrpublicsn party–not to keep tearing down the democratic party and its presumptive nominee and current president. No enemies on the left snd center left. Otherwise he is no better than a spoiler-simeone sho accepted the keys to the house so he could wreck the place.
singfoom
@Aimai: Like I said it’s a fear. I fear the asshole coalition outnumbering the coalition on the D side. And while the main component of that is the asshole working class white voters, add them to the other members of the asshole coalition and we might have a problem.
I can only hope you’re right. Like I said, irrational fear.
Gin & Tonic
@Kropadope: Random pseudonymous people allegedly being nasty to you “more than a couple of times” on a minor blog is a half-step away from having you shipped off to the gulag for sure.
WarMunchkin
I wonder now if the best move for Congressional Republicans is for them to nominate Hillary Clinton for President.
singfoom
@NonyNony: Agreed that it’s about turnout. I can’t edit my original comment but if I did I’d amend it to say a high R/Trump turnout and a lower D turnout.
And yes, I know they haven’t voted D in decades.
jl
@Gin & Tonic:
” on a minor blog ”
This blog? This happens to be almost a top 10,000 blog and I beg your pardon and look forward to your apology to all of the august influential commenters here.
Anonymous At Work
Please note for the debates that Trump’s biggest difficulty has been Megyn Kelly, leading him to protest another debate and skip the next one. A non-servile woman (non-male, to GOPers) gets under his skin easily. I can’t wait to see him debate Clinton.
Elie
@srv:
And I can’t wait to make the tired, fat old man come apart in a debate where he has to know more than insults. Do you think he doesn’t have a few skeletons to expose? Do you think he has nothing but friends in the Republican party? We aint even close to the time for the debates and campaign with Hillary and the crazy old man is already half off of his rocker. And that orange makeup is gonna have to get a lot thicker to cover up those gucci bags under his little red eyes. With that tissue paper thin ego and the very rudimentary ability to use words and facts (beyond name calling), I welcome your throw down.
Mnemosyne
@jl:
I think HRC is smart enough to let Sanders keep his pride and will probably be praising him a lot in public. After yesterday, I’m assuming negotiations are already in progress about what platform and/or appointment concessions Sanders wants in exchange for his open support. Horses will be traded, and that’s a good thing.
singfoom
@Kropadope: Yeah, having been on the receiving end of the condescending sneers of some HRC supporters here while I feel the Bern, I wouldn’t paint that picture larger than it is.
A few very prolific commenters here on BJ does not a party full of hostile to Bernfeelers Democratic party make.
I do worry that 1/3 of Bernie supporters might not turn out if HRC wins because of their purity but if it goes the way it looks it’s going to go, I really hope that Bernie forcefully and aggressively pushes his supporters towards HRC and the Dems if she clinches the nomination.
There will always be people who stay home, but hopefully that’s minimized.
Brachiator
If that’s how the debate turns out, Trump wins. America hates scolds and earnest school marms. And yeah, it is doubly unfair that the worst stupid doofusses may filter their view of Clinton through sexist filters.
Dubya did not outdo Gore because of media machinations. He outdid Gore because he was used to dealing with his dull-ass brother Jeb (remember him?) and dealt with the Democratic VP in the same way.
Clinton is Trump’s superior in many ways, but if you match them up like fighters or athletes, it’s clear that Trump’s style is a potential problem for her, as it is for most of Trump’s opponents. He knows how to deliver a fast jab that paints a negative picture of his opponent that sticks in the mind. He knows how to jump from point to point, even if it is an incoherent ramble. And he knows how to play to the audience, and does so as skillfully as Obama or Bill Clinton.
Clinton seems to have a smart team, better than 2008. She will have her work cut out for her. Trump is not invincible, but he is not a conventional politician, and he has stymied his fellow GOP contenders precisely because they initially tried to treat him as though he was just another cookie cutter Republican hopeful.
jl
@Anonymous At Work: Physicists here should snap to and get working on an alternative future history time machine so we can see Drumpf debate both HRC and Sanders. Both would be interesting.
A hopeful sign is that Fox tried to organize and Sanders-Trump debate. Sanders was ready to go, and Trump chickened out. So, probably Trump had reasons to back out beside the fact he might get made a fool of. But it is a sign that Trump doesn’t really think he can beat either of the Dems ‘very very easily’ (Edit: that is a Trump quote, but then another Trump quote is that he has said ‘many things’).
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
This photo by Doug Mills of NYT will put a lump in your throat.
This photo will give you schadenfreude over the GOP’s agony.
Aimai
@jl: hrc did full throatedly put Obama into nomination and work her ass of for him. Apparently you dont have any confidence that sanders, or his supporters, grasp this ordinary form of honest political good sportsmanship. Its not because you are appropriately cynical about politicians its that bernie snd his fans think that they are above mere politics, compromise, courtesy, sportsmanship or even negotiation rather than extortion. At least that is what it sounds like you are expecting from bernie snd his voters. I hope you are wrong. Id lose sll respect for bernie though it seems quite conceivable from the behavior of his more vocal supporters.
Mnemosyne
@singfoom:
It’s not totally irrational to think people might tune out, so we need to work to prevent that. Like I said, I like the metaphor of running up the score on the Republicans. Most people like to be on the winning team, so let’s give them an opportunity to do that.
Iowa Old Lady
We’re all assuming Trump will show for the general election debates. It seems outrageous he wouldn’t, but in a way, why would he? What does he get from that?
Elie
@singfoom:
If people with sanity can observe and comprehend the threat that Trump represents and stay home — well — I do not know what to say to that and do not know what it means to them to be Democrats or progressives in the face of an avowed racist, bigot xenophobe fascist. If they can’t at least vote against that, then, I am not sure that they are what they say they are….
Keith P.
@Elie: Yeah, they’ve only hinted at Trump’s mafia connections. I am so looking forward to Trump trying to explain that you couldn’t build in NY in the 80s without working with the mafia to some degree. There has to be so much dirt people are sitting on (my only theory as to why it hasn’t come up yet is a general hesitance to go full-bore due to the “11th Commandment of St. Ronald of Reagan.”
Bob In Portland
Where do you think the next hotspot will be after Clinton’s election? Some think that she’ll have troops on the ground fighting with the fascists in Ukraine, or maybe running bombing raids to knock out those gaslines to Europe. Some think she’ll be destabilizing along Russia’s underbelly. Maybe a regime change in Venezuela. Maybe more aid to the Uyghurs and Chechen. We haven’t had a big war in Latin America lately. Maybe Mexico would be a good place to start a war.
Where does everyone think the next war will be? How many deaths? Boots on the ground or just bombing the shit out of them? I wonder if Harrod’s has put up the odds yet.
Iowa Old Lady
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Great picture of Garland, Obama, and Biden in particular. I heard on the radio that Garland was teary-eyed over the nomination. I hope he doesn’t get ripped apart.
jl
@Mnemosyne: HRC is bragging loudly about her small individual donor base, and how it has become the most important funding of her campaign. I think HRC is smart enough to know how to go about signalling that it will be greatly to Sanders advantage to follow through with what he has said about what his campaign is about and what he will do (namely, enthusiastically support the Democratic nominee, no matter who it is).
A Ghost To Most
I think one debate about foreign policy should be enough for HRC to rip tRump a new asshole.
Bob In Portland
@Mnemosyne: I’ve always wanted to be on the same team as Goldman Sachs.
(snark)
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Iowa Old Lady: yeah, he broke down. here’s the (clip)
Aimai
@Iowa Old Lady: good point. I have to say i agree with you. I think trump will refuse to debate. He can vount on getting free publicity eith no negative vonsequences. But that wont affect the race at all. He cant expand his base of support without beating up hrc in public. While she wont lose sny supporters by not debating him. She can just go sround orgsnizing Gotv.
Cacti
@srv:
I fully approve of our resident winger’s use of Nazi analogies to describe candidate Trump.
Elie
You see bullshit like on Huffington Post stating that Hillary got fewer votes than Trump. Lets look at that. Ohio has an open primary. There were crossovers both ways but its hard to know what proportion will actually support either candidate in the general. I could see Democrats willingly voting for Trump in the primary to influence the R choice. I can also acknowledge that some plan to support him in the general, but I would think that those are a minority. Trump has done very well in open primaries. Not as well in closed or caucus situations… He has yet to break 50%, even with the crossovers.
jl
@Bob In Portland: i do not know when. I know that the alternative is the GOP pres pulling dangerous stunts on DAY ONE, like abrogating the Iran nuclear treaty, or starting a war crime against ethnic and religious groups in the US.
But, if you have an idea on how to get Sanders the landslides he needs in NY, CA, WA, and OR to win the Democratic nomination, let us know what we need to do.
It may greatly surprise and irritate some of the commenters here, but many things in this world are out of our control. We need to concentrate sometimes on things we can do within our control.
I’ll vote for Sanders in CA primary (if he is still acting constructively), and unless the landslides Sanders needs materialize, for HRC in the general, And enthusiastically GOTVing in both.
FlipYrWhig
@Bob In Portland: Bernie Sanders’s campaign honcho Tad Devine ran the senate campaign of Jon Corzine, former CEO of Goldman Sachs. You’re already on that team.
randy khan
@Brachiator:
When I read the comment about the lifelong preschool teacher, I thought it meant that she knew every trick that a kid’s mind could conjure and how to respond to get what she wants. Her Benghazi hearing performance is an example of that – she took them seriously enough not to make people think she wasn’t showing sufficient respect, but also made it clear when they did something really stupid.
Trump’s style is not suited to the formalized, audience-can’t-applaud, rules-bound fall debates; in fact, I think one reason he doesn’t want to debate any more in the primaries is that three is not a sufficient crowd for him to dominate. That’s one reason it’s much easier for me to imagine a “please proceed” moment in the general election debates than something that hurts Clinton. (And her research on what he’s likely to say will be much, much better than what the Republicans have had, so she’ll be ready for him.)
The Ancient Randonneur
If indeed it is Clinton v. Trump then I truly am looking forward to those debates. She will handle him the way she handled those howling jackals on the House Select Committee on Benghazi. That “I wish a muthafucka would …” look on her face was epic. A bully like Trump will not handle it well. .They’re going to have to airlift him to nearest Level 1 Trauma Center when she’s done with him.
japa21
@Bob In Portland: You really are a jerk.
FlipYrWhig
@Kropadope:
I’ve been told more than a couple of times by Bernie supporters that all the liberals who support Hillary are liberaling wrong and aren’t real liberals, but are status quo, Establishment, etc., etc. And Bernie and his senior braintrust says all that same stuff too. It’s obnoxious. And I would have voted for Sanders anyway because the alternative is just too horrible.
Betty Cracker
@Brachiator: So media spin had nothing to do with public perceptions about Gore but rather the skills Bush honed while dealing with his little bro? Man, you are a wellspring of wrong sometimes.
Applejinx
@kindness:
You know, just as soon as it’s really literally impossible for him to win, it’s completely safe for her to do this.
That’s when certain people will know for certain what they’re buying, and that’s when the whole idea of ‘not voting for Hillary’ will become ridiculous. It really won’t be that hard to put across the idea because the idea of ‘Hillary pivots and triangulates’ is so well established. How she reacts to her defeated adversary will telegraph what ideas she’s running with (I think we can all suggest perhaps more well-planned versions of the Bernie platform which has raised so much turnout and money)
In many ways she’s positioning to be able to do this. All that Corinthians and love and stuff. Again, it’s completely safe for her to love on Bernie just as soon as he can’t possibly win.
And not before, so we can’t know how this will play out quite yet. But perhaps pretty soon.
Mnemosyne
@Bob In Portland:
Well, then, stay home with your purity pony while the rest of us do the hard work of trying to make the fucking government work again. I have no time for whiners.
Elie
@Aimai:
He may avoid debates, but he is gonna have to have a forum to explain the shit that is gonna be coming at him. If he just avoids debates, and then avoids the press, he will just be seen as a runner. Do you think his rallies will afford him that? Those rallies I believe have in the end, cost him because each one adds and invigorates his opponents. He will not be able to resist the temptation to improve on his more extreme statements. He will do at least some of Hillary’s job for her in making sure that HER base gets out to vote. He will be the gift that keeps on giving.
Mnemosyne
@FlipYrWhig:
Heh.
Jeffro
@Iowa Old Lady:
Exactly. And yet this is supposedly History’s Greatest Monster, someone who will stop at nothing, break every rule, etc etc etc, to get what she wants. It’s ridiculous.
Elie
@Mnemosyne:
He must be one of the most miserable commenters here. Bitter and chronically depressed forever…. I can barely read his comments any more.
Jeffro
@charluckles:
Yes and yes and yes and yes. The negatives almost couldn’t be worse, but I think his approval ratings are going to continue to drop until we get down to that fabled…27%…
He’s going to land in Cleveland like a C-5 full of fertilizer, wheels up
Elie
@randy khan:
But Trump has generally not dominated the R debates. Many he just sat there like an orange sack of potatoes as this opponents screamed at him or each other. He has to have some venue for his views and exposure. He will not be able to avoid that.
schrodinger's cat
OT: Who is going to watch, The Americans, tonight?
Who will live longer?
Martha or the Pastor?
Brachiator
@charluckles:
Democrats stay home. Others defect because they like Trump’s simplistic message. There is a huge gender gap with white males, including former Democrats, voting for Trump, especially in the midWest rust belt states.
The smartest Republican strategists have been saying this just before every primary vote. So far, Trump is easily slapping them around the head and stealing their lunch money.
Fair Economist
@Bob In Portland:
True, and some people think the Earth was created on Saturday, October 22, 4004 B.C. More, I suspect.
Elie
@Jeffro:
LOL !! Good image…
Jeffro
@srv:
Trump was taking on people who couldn’t even begin to criticize him, after decades of fact-free GOP “policy” making, with all of it in front of 100% GOP audiences. And even then, Republicans are in full revolt. It’s gonna be a lot different with a united Democratic party and a savvy D candidate.
I mean, even Glenn Beck is calling it the “end of the Republic” if Trump is the nominee. Endorsements like that don’t come along every cycle…
Applejinx
@Betty Cracker: Hillary is capable of intervening to smack down Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and I’m convinced she’s done it before.
I think the honeytrap/hacker business with VoteBuilder, where Debbie took the keys to the campaign machinery away from Bernie over the misdeeds of a subordinate and then sat on them, was resolved with Hillary stepping in and going ‘WTF are you doing! Don’t you know how this looks?’
I keep saying she’s not dumb. The same can’t be said for many of her subordinates and allies.
jl
@Aimai: I am a Sanders mega-donor thank you very much, with quite a few average sized contributions to his campaign. I expect Sanders to enthusiastically support HRC, and to continue building support for his political revolution, and that includes trying to get all them dang kids out to vote, because that is what he has said he will do in his stump speeches.
So, I think my worries are general cynicism about politicians, not Sanders or HRC in particular.
I’ve been working on some converse, or contrapositive, or something, on the phrase ‘He means well even if he don’t look it” to express my attitude in a snappy way, but haven’t found it yet.
CONGRATULATIONS!
Yep. To all of it. You nailed it.
singfoom
@Elie:
Well, all I can say is that 1/3 will be the youngsters. I remember college and to me at the time, the most important thing was being consistent/authentic with my beliefs…whether that was tactically smart or strategically smart. So if you’re a college aged Bernfeeler and you think the establishment of both parties is as crooked as fuck (I am not making this argument so please don’t engage on the idea that I am) then a pox on both their houses is a rational decision.
I’m not saying it’s right, I’m saying on one level I get it. My sincere hope is that it a very small minority of Berniefeelers that go this route, or vice versa on the HRC side if somehow Bernie pulls this primary off.
Mnemosyne
@Applejinx:
I was saving this for later tonight, but I have a little musical dedication for Sanders supporters: “What I Did For Love”, from A Chorus Line. (Yes, of course it’s the Hamilton cast, what else did you expect from me?)
For those unfamiliar with the show, the “love” they sing about is not romantic love, but love of performing. So, yeah, feel good about trying your hardest and doing your best, brush yourselves off, and keep moving forward.
jl
@Elie:
” [Trump] just sat there like an orange sack of potatoes as this opponents screamed at him or each other. ”
They should distribute pet poo bags for any debate that includes Trump or Cruz.
Heliopause
One would think, and I think the greatest likelihood is that Clinton will win, but…
1. It was conventional wisdom amongst many in the 70s that Reagan was too extreme to ever win the Presidency, and in early 1980 Carter had a big lead on him in the polls.
2. Trump has beaten Clinton in a few general hypothetical polls. That means that in some models of the electorate Trump can actually win. Of course, those models would seem to be outliers, but if this huge turnout gap between Republicans and Dems in the primaries persists it’s something to keep an eye on.
3. It’s extremely unlikely, but there is still a scenario where Bernie goes to the convention with close to the same number of pledged delegates as Clinton. That wouldn’t deny Clinotn the nomination but it could lead to at least the potential for the Dems to have convention drama of their own.
4. You never know what might happen between now and then. Again I consider it pretty unlikely but you never know if something regarding the e-mails or the Clinton Foundation or whatever might blow up. Just saying, don’t count your chickens.
Jeffro
@Elie: Thanks! Sort of the “YUGE!!” version of a flaming bag of dog poop on the front steps, eh?
dedc79
Ken Starr (yes, that Ken Starr) supports the President’s nominee for SCOTUS:
I have no idea what to make of that.
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
The flaming Drumpster probably already has amazing, spectacular clown cavalcades planned for the day after any debates with Clinton.
The nice thing is he established this pattern early so the campaign can be ready for it and counter program for them. I expect a calmer, more reasonable-appearing Drumpf in the fall and that is something they should be prepared for also
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
To the contrary. People get so used to “bad media” conventional wisdom that they don’t see what is plainly in front of them.
I did not say that Dubya honed razor sharp debating skills. But he came across as more comfortable in his own skin than Gore, and this created a perception of confidence. This is the confidence of an older child who knows that he is the anointed one when dealing with a younger, smarter brother.
You saw the same dynamic at play when Trump easily made Jeb look like a fool.
Conservatives blame the media. Liberals blame the media. It’s lazy and dumb, especially when it substitutes for looking at a situation or talking to actual people who watched the debate and get their impressions before they read the papers or any other filter.
jl
@Heliopause: We can’t be complacent. But GOP convention fights are more likely to be blood sport and Thunderdome, and the Democratic convention fights are more likely to be theatrics necessary to get the general election campaign off to a good start with everyone on board.
Jeffro
@Heliopause:
Her emails aren’t gonna come to anything, nor is the Foundation. And even if that happens, Bernie goes on or Biden steps in, whatever. The Party is largely unified on the issues and we couldn’t have asked for a better set of opponents (deep bench! deep bench!! lol) to run against.
I’m all for Clinton but if for some reason something happened, Next Dem Up.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@singfoom: For this kind of scenario where Trump wins I’d have to say “he deserves it”. If he can pull a bunch – and it would be millions, it would have to be – of non-voting low-IQ motherfuckers off their couches and keep ’em off the oxy long enough to go pull a lever or sign an “X” or whatever their state requires, then fuck, he earned it.
I really don’t think that’s going to happen. The “Apathy” Party has gotten the largest consistent turnout in every election since I’ve been able to vote, and I think it will get the largest turnout ever for this one.
BruceFromOhio
I am very grateful for Senator Sanders and his messages, his positions, his supporters, and the energy he brings to the campaign. Fervently looking forward to Clinton asking him to be VP, unless he wants to remain in the Senate where he can tag-team with Sherrod Brown, Al Franken, Elizabeth Warren, et al.
Let’s make it so!
Mnemosyne
@Brachiator:
IIRC, white men have been 60 percent Republican the last few presidential elections, so I really don’t think another few percentage points is going to put Trump over the top when every other demographic group is against him, including (IIRC) white women who normally vote Republican.
I do think there’s a valid worry that Republicans will be able to organize and GOTV for first-time voters in that group, but that’s why we can’t be complacent. We need to beat them at that game, starting now.
randy khan
@Elie: He may not have spoken more than other people, but he’s dominated the coverage, he generally has the most-quoted lines – “Little Marco,” the hands thing, etc., etc.
The fall debates, in any event, constrain candidates in significant ways that just don’t fit how Trump has made his case in the Republican debates. It’s not an easy problem for him to solve. (And as others have suggested, it’s possible he “solves” it by not agreeing to participate.)
Elie
@Heliopause:
We could be hit by a 10 mile diameter meteor from the Oort cloud too — not all those comets have predictable orbits. Are you secretely hoping for the mass distinction outcome?
humboldtblue
@Iowa Old Lady: He was teary-eyed in the Rose garden and he’s also teary-eyed in this short bio released by the White House on twitter a few hours ago.
M31
@srv:
damn right! When Trump wins he’ll install so many chandeliers in the White House every night will be a crystal night and those mooching 47%ers will finally discover that only work will make you free.
Elie
@randy khan:
He will have to get his exposure somehow…
Baud
@dedc79:
It means Starr’s insiderism is stronger than his oppositional conservatism.
Thoroughly Pizzled
We Americans have our problems, but in the end we’ve always figured it out. I believe in the country to do the right thing in November.
singfoom
@CONGRATULATIONS!: I hope you’re right. This became more plausible in my mind after the events of Chicago. Drumpf supporters in Ohio citing Chicago as a reason why they have to come out and support him even more.
I think that confrontations between Drumpf protesters and Drumpf supporters will continue to happen as we roll along to the conventions and that will energize the base of the Asshole coalition.
I watched some excerpts from his rally in Ohio and all I could of was the mob scene in South Park where they start yelling “They took our jobs…” and it eventually evolved into “DEY TOOK ARR ERBS” as they got more angry.
Baud
@Thoroughly Pizzled:
Lordy, I’m not even that confident about liberal blogs.
Elie
@humboldtblue:
That is very nice…very nice….
jl
@randy khan:
” The fall debates, in any event, constrain candidates in significant ways that just don’t fit how Trump has made his case in the Republican debates. It’s not an easy problem for him to solve. ”
Trump has said in interviews, that he knows this will be a very easy problem for him to solve, because he understands his own genius and protean nature. As I have typed before, I have serious doubts about that.
JPL
How long will it take before Drumpf to insult Clinton. I assume he’ll say something like, you couldn’t keep your husband interested, how are you going to take of Putin. He might actually talk about her imaginary girl friends.
It will be the most bleeped debate ever.
Baud
@humboldtblue: I wonder when the decision was made that they were able to put together that video.
Elie
@Elie:
Meant mass extinction — not distinction — yikes!
Applejinx
@Mnemosyne:
Nader fooled me too in 2000, but I see some very large differences that weren’t there in 2000.
1) Donald Trump. Bush was trying REAL hard to seem ‘compassionate’ back then, at the same time that Gore was trying to seem just as business-boosting as any Republican. We did NOT have a guy ranting that he’s gonna build a wall and throw all the Muslims over it, back then.
2) If BJ posters and SNL skits are to be believed, Hillary’s using her chameleonic powers for good. As I’d hoped, she’s identifying a powerful populist swing (GEE YA THINK? It would take a MSM journalist to miss that one) and getting in front of it. As long as that demographic move remains (and it can’t NOT remain, the economy being what it is) then Hillary will try to be identified with it. Her cabinet, maybe not: remains to be seen. But she COULD be trying to act like Kasich, not Sanders, and she’s not. And…
3) Nader was about desperately trying to telegraph the existence of a political movement that seemed completely marginalized. For all that some blog posters like to punch hippies, that situation is utterly reversed: Bernie’s run and Bernie’s massive campaign war chest, all that shocking grassroots fundraising, has proved beyond doubt that nobody needs to ‘write in Bernie’ to show that the Left exists. Nobody who’s serious about politics will be leaving this out of their calculations, from now on, so just as it’s ‘safe’ for Hillary to openly embrace the Bernie platform (and voters, and money), it is ‘safe’ for Bernie voters to elect Hillary knowing that their presence is felt and that they won’t be ignored. It’s like a lefty version of the Tea Party except that the Dems are smarter than the Republicans and will be able to avoid the threat of just getting primaried out of existence. Dems are used to managing disparate factions, where Republicans prefer top-down control and live or die by that.
So, I think it’s pretty safe to say that Bernistas will not and should not try to write in Bernie, vote Trump, or in any other way screw with the ‘coronation’. Queen Hillary was never such a fixed quantity. She becomes what you need her to be… and a lot of special interests along the way may find themselves out-voted. Like I’ve said, only Nixon could go to China and maybe it really does take Hillary to spin down some of the bullshit in this country which she’s been either for or against.
I’m remembering that meme where Hils says ‘where was Bernie when I was pushing for health care all those years ago?’ and then there’s a picture of Bernie literally standing right behind her, supporting her in her efforts. Ha ha, very funny, ‘he’s right behind you’, how dishonest to make that argument.
Yeah, well, that picture also shows that Hillary was pushing for health care all those years ago, and so idealistically that look who was right behind her? Bernie Freaking Sanders, that’s who. That’s photo evidence that in her own way she’s trying so hard that Bernie was literally supporting her, standing right there prominently in the picture and working in Congress to try and get her stuff passed. You can see the ‘and now she says he wasn’t helping’, or you can see someone who was being so liberal that a generation of wingnuts and journalists lost their minds. She didn’t get their hatred by supporting Wall Street and big business.
I am guardedly optimistic, and hope to see more of this conciliation and liberal love-fest. It could really work.
raven
A Clinton campaign manager named Mook! What’s a Mook??
Mnemosyne
@dedc79:
Starr seems to be doing more general conservative stuff right now and isn’t specifically involved with electoral politics, so isn’t any skin off his nose. I think he resented the Republican House dragging him into the whole impeachment circus and he’s been in academia ever since. He hasn’t gone Ted Olsen or anything, but he’s not really involved in politics per se.
humboldtblue
@Elie: Gonna miss me some Obama. I may not be keen on Clinton for general purposes, but at least she’ll carry on with the 8-year tradition that the Democratic president sitting in the Oval office is the smartest person in the room.
Clinton’s gonna wear Trump’s ass out.
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
@srv:
more votes than the other dozen clowns in the car but never the most votes. Has he ever broken 45%? He can’t even get the majority of votes from the wingnut losers that populate the GOP. So, say, an average of 40% of the 33% of people who bothered to show, which starts at only about 48% of the electorate anyway. About 130 million votes in 2012, so for the GOP about 61 million. Of those only about a third bother to participate at this point so 20 million & the Drumpster fire has only managed about 40% of those so maybe 8 million people support him so far. Some of those will fall in line when daddy tells them to, it is the goper way. But some polls have shown as many as 40% of registered Republicans say they will never vote for Drumpf. My hope, all our hopes are that those people stay home in protest and we have a repeat of 1964 at the polls.
FlipYrWhig
@Applejinx: And the Debbie Wasserman Schultz payday lending lobbying effort was all something to woo Elizabeth Warren to do something, right, in your theory? What was the reasoning behind Bernie Sanders saying his good friend in the Senate was Jim Inhofe?
Elie
@jl:
None of Trumps opponents have used his narcissism as a trap — yet. He is such an easy set up — his mood and emotions swing so hard in a direction, it should be pretty easy to lead him into a place he doesn’t want to go… he will always fall back on calling names etc., I don’t think his ability to grow his appeal is infinite and that he is about at his ceiling. He may not lose a single vote of his followers but still improve and increase the commitment of his opponent’ base. I can tell you, black folks will crawl over glass to vote against him this fall.
singfoom
@raven: It’s like a jamook, but dumber?
D58826
@Aimai: agree. And use the time and influence to start building a progressive infrastructure that will last longer than the current ‘feel the bern’ euphoria. And throwing a bit of that enthusiasm, i.e. money, on the down ballot races, esp. for the less well know candidates.
Fair Economist
Trump is plagiarizing – from Ben Carson!
Trump column appears to have plagiarized chunks of Carson op-ed
This reminds me of an episode in school where a large number of students in a class I was TA’ing were caught plagiarizing earlier papers – mostly ones that flunked! One of the other TA’s said “If you’re going to plagiarize, can’t you at least plagiarize something that passed?”
xenos
On the matter of Trump, he is now threatening to cause a riot at the convention.
At what point would the city of Cleveland be able and justified to cancel the convention? Seems to me to be quite a hazard an dpublic nuisance.
Just a thought.
Benw
@Elie: and yet Clinton vs Trump would in fact be a mass distinction event!
humboldtblue
@Baud: I thought about that as well, Baud, but considering the tech they have available at the White House and the careful way Obama operates, I bet they had vids from each of those on his short list ready to go. So probably in the past six to eight weeks out the farthest to within the past 10 days or so.
Elie
@D58826:
Those down ticket races are as critical to me….
Mnemosyne
@Applejinx:
And to add to your points, I think the odds of Bernie deciding to run third party or even stay out of the general election are pretty much zero. He’s going to get his platform concessions and other goodies — as he should — and then he’s going to support Hillary and the Democrats. He may make me wince occasionally because I suspect he’s going to try and triangulate a little between the left-fringe and the Democratic mainstream to maintain the appearance of being an outsider, but there is no way in hell he will do anything that might swing the election to Trump. Period.
Elie
@Benw:
LOL
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
@humboldtblue:
I like Obama despite his not being my first choice in 08. He is no liberal, just as close as we can manage in todays environment. I do not see him to be much to the left of Clinton despite all the whining. I expect 8 years of Hil to be a continuation of the 8 years of Bams and I can live with that as we struggle to move the nation back toward sanity.
p.a.
@humboldtblue: I’m more worried about vote suppression than Trump out campaigningClinton.
R governors: 31 D: 18 I:1 * may be pre recent La. change.
R controlled state Legislatures: 30 D: 11 Split: 9 (2015)
Elie
@xenos:
That would give him the attention he craves…. nope — that won’t happen until unfortunately something really bad would have to happen first. Don’t even want to think about that.
Baud
@humboldtblue: That kind of sucks for the other candidates. Oh, well.
jl
@Elie: I hope a lot of people feel that way and will be very eager to vote against Trump.
@JPL:
” How long will it take before Drumpf to insult Clinton. ”
I heard on the news this morning that Trump allies have made the amazing discovery last night that it was not the Communist Bernie Sanders who sent liberal thugs to shut down the sweet ice cream social Trump rallies, it was really Clinton. O. M G.!! Imagine that, What a horrible woman.
FlipYrWhig
@Schlemazel (parmesan rancor): At what point was the nation sane enough to model what we should go back to?
Brachiator
@randy khan:
I absolutely agree that HRC’s Benghazi hearing testimony was a master class in how to deal with BS with aplomb.
Trump probably gets impatient easily. He likely sees the debates as pointlessly repetitive. He has also pretty much dispensed with all competitors, and has won over the crowd.
Right now, I am not sure that any traditional research on Trump is sufficient. Again, he is not a traditional politician with a track record. And his strongest supporters don’t care if he is not up on the deep facts of policy issues.
HRC: Mr. Trump is totally unfamiliar with the issues.
Trump: I just see that the Democrats and the Republicans have failed to make America great. The only issue that they were familiar with was their great big failure. Huge.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Programming Note: Hillary to appear on “Broad City” tonight 10 PM Eastern (preview: Hail to the Kween)
NotMax
@raven
In World of Warcraft, this.
:)
Elie
@jl:
Lots already do. Already do. Do you actually see Trump moderating his shtick enough to quell their motivation? I don’t. His shtick is central to his base…he’s gotta keep it coming and increasing… they do not want the calm reasoned leader pivoting to the general. They want red meat and the redder the better.
humboldtblue
@p.a.: I agree, that’s a real concern particularly for people of color and a lot of Sanders supporters who happen to be college students. The GOP has made huge strides in effectively making it far harder for a lot of reliable Democratic voters to cast a ballot.
@Schlemazel (parmesan rancor): Yup, I am not gassed for Clinton but I’m a liberal Democrat, who the hell else am I going to vote for? (And I had better vote, I didn’t vote in 2012)
humboldtblue
@Baud: That was just a guess from me. I mean, Obama is a planner extraordinaire and maybe it was a video recorded on Monday, I just don’t know.
Baud
@Elie: I think Trump would have gone the “calm” route if he were facing Bernie. He will ramp up the crazy and the hate against Hillary.
Applejinx
@BruceFromOhio: VP? Nah, and I’m an epic bernfeeler. No. There’s gotta be some young liberal who’d be a good pick.
Bernie, even while campaigning, is maintaining his connections in the Senate (notice how he would not call out Republican friends? He isn’t going to ‘bern’ bridges just to get elected President). He becomes another Elizabeth Warren, who likewise was smart enough to not endorse Bernie while there was a chance it would misfire. Right now she’s probably glad she didn’t and HE is probably glad she didn’t endorse him.
Because they’ve got a lot of work to do, and they have to maintain all their relationships, with friends and foes, in order to get that work done. Pick some young liberal without as good a network in Congress to serve as Veep, not Bernie.
Betty Cracker
@Brachiator: Dubya is a better campaigner than he gets credit for, and I don’t doubt it is because of the misplaced confidence he gets from whatever source. But if you don’t think the media played an enormous role in what happened in 2000, you’re flat-out wrong.
jl
@Elie: OK, thanks. I’ll take your word for it.
Trump keeps saying that ‘the blacks’ and ‘the Hispanics’ and ‘the Muslims’ and ‘the Asians’ and ‘the women’ all love him and will come in droves to vote for him. And Trump also confirms repeatedly that he is a world historical genius, so, I get worried sometimes.
Elie
@Brachiator:
I don’t think its “traditional research” that will doom Trump ultimately. Trump will be “trumped” by Trump. As in Greek tragedy, he will be a victim of hubris and his own “fatal flaws”. I suspect that team Hillary will use some very assymetrical techniques and strategies. He thinks he is just running against Hillary. He is very very wrong IMHO.
Elie
@jl:
Why do you let that BS into your head?
Jeffro
OT but did anyone see/hear/read Glenn Beck’s meltdown rant against John Kaisch today? Apparently Kaisch is going to go down in history as the person responsible for the destruction of the Republic (America)…who knew??
(Is anyone keeping tabs as to which right-wing nutbags are on which side these days? I have lost track)
Marmot
Has anybody said “beware the Reichstag fire” yet? Yeah, do.
jl
@Elie:
” Do you actually see Trump moderating his shtick enough to quell their motivation? ”
No. Even in the last debate, when he tried to remain calm and ‘presidential’ he was just as obnoxious and provocative on anything related to race, ethnicity or religious understanding and tolerance, or even sane policy.
jl
@Elie: I forgot the snark tag. That was a joke.
Elie
@Baud:
No way He would be pretty crazy against Bernie too. Yes, he will be crazy with Hillary… We will see how much time he has to just attack her without swatting off his own hornets…
SiubhanDuinne
@Betty Cracker O/P:
Thanks for this, Betty. I got into one of those conversations, briefly, with someone on AL’s morning thread, and was considerably gobsmacked at the idea that Team Hillary would purge anyone*, least of all the Berniacs. She’ll want to include as many of them as possible to ensure her defeat of Trump is as lopsided and decisive as possible. And, as has been demonstrated, she and Bernie are fairly close on most issues, and she has shown a willingness this time around to adjust as she comes into possession of new information and points of view. So I just can’t think of any reason she (or even the odious DWS, for that matter) would want to shut these voices and voters out of the party.
*(Of course she would disavow blatant racists, white supremacists and the like, but clearly that’s not what I’m talking about here.)
dogwood
@schrodinger’s cat:
I think the pastor might be a Russian agent working to turn Paige based on her idealism. Or he might be a dead man soon. Don’t want Martha to die.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Schlemazel (parmesan rancor): Who was your first choice… Kucinich or Gravel?
Elie
@jl:
Oops — I should have known that
JCT
@Baud: Nothing she hasn’t dealt with before. HRC is, quite simply, one tough broad. And sharp – a great combo for the likes of Trump.
Baud
@Elie: Perhaps. We’ll probably never know. But Trump may not be able to control himself, even though he is quite adept at changing personalities on a dime.
@JCT: Agree. A lifetime of vilification has prepared her for this moment.
NotMax
In lighter news, Disneyland may not be the happiest place on Earth after all.
Denmark tops global ‘happy’ index, Burundi at bottom
(Only 157 countries ranked, apparently.)
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
@FlipYrWhig:
1959, if only we had nominated HHH instead of JFK. throughout the 60’s there were people more liberal than Clinton (either on) of Obama. they got run out after the disaster of ’72 based not on their polices or accomplishments but on the politics of white resentment.
JMG
I believe that the animosity of a majority of white male voters towards Clinton is as great or greater than the animosity those voters had for Obama. This is why I believe she would lose to a more traditional candidate. Fortunately, I believe the animosity of most women voters towards Trump is so off the charts that factor will be neutralized and then some.
Heliopause
@Elie:
It would serve us right.
NR
@Schlemazel (parmesan rancor): There was a post on Redstate this morning (I know) talking about how Trump is the weakest frontrunner in GOP history. Trump likes to claim that the reason that he isn’t getting over 50% of the vote is because he has three opponents, but Romney had three opponents in 2012 and he got over 50% in quite a few contests. Ditto for John McCain in 2008.
Trump is still likely to win because of the GOP’s winner-take-all rules, but there are a lot of Republican primary voters who aren’t exactly flocking to his side.
raven
Here’s a young crabapple tree blooming.
debbie
@Jeffro:
I pointed that out yesterday or the day before. I used to listen to him when I worked second shift. Beck and his minions (including his disaffected, Trump-supporting minions) will never vote for Kasich. If they don’t form a third party like they’re threatening to do, they’ll stay home.
Baud
@raven: Nice shot.
JCT
We also have the drip, drip, drip of Trump’s real financials. Will nicely play into the “fraud” narrative. Trump hasn’t even really been touched during the primary. It’s coming in the general.
debbie
@raven:
Beautiful! I love spring!
Shakti
@charluckles: Two words; one phrase: Voter suppression.
I moved recently and had to get a new driver’s license. My state is Real ID compliant which means I had to go into the DMV so they could scan in my passport, my social security card and two proofs of my current address. You need a photo ID with a signature to vote in person. All your voter registration tells you is what your precincts are and what your polling place on election day is. I’ve done election protection before and there were all kinds of shenanigans.
In addition the VRA has been gutted. Throw in scary Trump voters and I wouldn’t be surprised if some people stay away from polling places.
p.a.
@Elie:
I see Trump as more of an Aristophanes character. Cleon in The Knights.
SiubhanDuinne
@jl:
I’ve seen comments and statements from both of them indicating that they will. Both of them know who needs to be defeated in November, and neither is stupid or self-destructive.
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
in 08 it was John Edwards – thank Pasta that failed! I still like his message and I still like his proposals but we dodged a bullet there.
I went to the caucus ready to vote for him but there were 250 people in my precinct, normally in a presidential year we get 25-30. 235 of those were for Obama and I thought anyone who could command a crowd like that could do great things. He has done very well and even if the sludge had never oozed out of Edwards I would not regret being a delegate to the State convention for BHO.
raven
@debbie: Except for the pollen! The pine pollen is covering everything but they say it is not what causes problems, oak and hickory are bad.
Applejinx
@SiubhanDuinne: Are you kidding? Absolutely DWS would want to shut those voices and voters out of the party. She’s like some of the noisier Hillbots around here: it’s all us versus them, and she seems happier going to war against rivals than enemies.
She has a primary challenger, Tim Canova. She is refusing to let him have access to the same VoteBuilder Democratic voter file that she took away from Bernie, which only confirms my suspicion that it was DWS and not at all Hillary behind the ‘hackergate’ business where the DNC shut down Bernie’s campaign on the eve of the NH primary.
YES, DWS would kick the Bernfeelers out, but she is wrong and dumb to do so, and it’s not Hillary doing it. It’s Debbie.
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
@srv:
OH NOES!!!! The GOP nominee hit 50% of Republicans in one poll!!! I guess the Dems can just call it quits now its all over but for adding the gold trim to the White House and painting “TRUMP” onto AF1
You really are sad and delusional.
debbie
@raven:
Yeah, I react to tree pollen in the spring, grass pollen in the summer, and outdoor mold in the fall and winter. It definitely sucks, but I refuse to stay indoors with my windows shut.
Baud
@Applejinx: Canova’s own post indicates that it’s an incumbent-protection rule and not limited to DWS vs. him.
dww44
@japa21: In this instance, I absolutely agree. Sheesh!!!
Baud
@Schlemazel (parmesan rancor): It’s a poll of Republicans. They are coming around to accepting him as the nominee.
debbie
Hell, the GOP’s so screwed up, they’re citing Biden as precedent for their inaction on SCOTUS.
JPL
@raven: That’s a great shot. Yesterday was the first I noticed the yellow pine pollen crap that falls every year. My dogwoods are close to bursting open. Normally my son tends to be a few days ahead of me but not this year. He’s in Sandy Springs.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@Schlemazel (parmesan rancor): What I never understood is how he could be considered a “true progressive” considering his votes to repeal Glass-Steagle, to deregulate Wall Street, in favor of the corporatist Bankruptcy bill and worst of all, how he personally co-wrote the war resolution giving Dubya a blank check to murder 600,000 brown people.
He was nothing more than a white Harold Ford with a $400 hair cut, living in a 28,000 foot mansion.
Peale
@SiubhanDuinne: it’s tough to purge people who aren’t in your campaign. I guess she could make sure his superdelegates are replaced or not invited to super secret planning sessions.
Steve in the ATL
I encountered a Florida driver today in suburban Atlanta. He was driving an oversized pickup truck, all black because that’s the color you want in Florida, with 2nd Amendment and III% bumper stickers.
Even worse? Driving 5 under the speed limit in the left lane.
SiubhanDuinne
@Anonymous At Work:
Would love to have at least one of those debates with an all-woman panel of moderators. Estrogen power!!
SiubhanDuinne
@Steve in the ATL:
Was he rolling coal?
humboldtblue
@raven: So that’s spring where you live. Here in the North Woods spring means rain (well, winter too) and we got 15 inches in December, 11 in January and 10 more in February. Then March came in like a big, fat wet lion and dropped about four inches of rain in 24 hours and that led to this washout on a small state route, 3, to the east of us and this slide to the south of us shutting down the famous PCH north of Fort Bragg.
Ahh, spring.
raven
@JPL: Sposed to get in the 30’s Sunday night.
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
@Baud:
See my response to Severely Retrograde Virus
The poor boy is trying hard to generate excitement about a guy who has the nomination sewn up but can barely manage to break 50% in his own party. I can’t remember a more pathetic candidate & that includes McGovern in 72. I hope he picks Cruz as his VP just to seal the deal.
Technocrat
@NR:
Hey, I follow Redstate too. I think it’s important to know how your opponent thinks, especially their activist base. It’s been eye-opening to see how adamantly they oppose Trump.
I’ve no doubt they’ll fall in line come the fall, but it will be a shit sandwich for many of them. I’m reminded of 2008 when a significant portion of the GOP base just couldn’t stomach putting Palin in the VP seat.
Also, too, Glenn Beck hates him. Here’s a comment from The Blaze:
I won’t pretend we don’t have issues on our side. But Trump isn’t some native son.
FlipYrWhig
@Schlemazel (parmesan rancor): Who in particular are you thinking of? So many of the Democrats were old segregationist war-horses. People like Ribicoff, B. Bayh, and Mansfield survived McGovern’s bust of a campaign. (I was cheating by flicking through the Wikipedia entries starting with 86th United States Congress and zipping down the names of Senators.)
Matt McIrvin
@charluckles: The scenario where Trump wins is a split opposition. A substantial fraction of Democratic-leaning voters decamp to a third-party candidate over dislike of the Democratic nominee, and Trump gets a plurality in enough states to win.
An anti-Trump-conservative third-party insurgency could even backfire and elect him, if the insurgency turns out to attract more of Clinton’s voters than Trump’s.
NotMax
Paranoid much?
Shana
@Brachiator: I’ve known quite a few preschool teachers over the years, and the good ones are kind, gentle and firm. They know how to deal with kids in difficult moods and are great at calming situations down. I suspect eemom’s comment refers to that aspect of their talents, not some elementary school tyrant teacher. Just saying’.
Jeffro
@debbie:
My bad on missing the Beck slam on Kaisch, thought it was new news!
I don’t think they’ll form a third party on their own, they’re too lazy. And I don’t think a majority of them will stay home – they’ll hold their nose and vote GOP because History’s Greatest Monster and all that.
But some will stay home, and for that, they have my undying gratitude.
raven
@humboldtblue: My family lives in LA and they love to bitch about the weather!
FlipYrWhig
@Baud: AJ sees things a certain way and he’s not about to stop.
Baud
@FlipYrWhig: I think he’s a she. In any event, it was worth clarifying for the reader.
Matt McIrvin
@Steve in the ATL: The other day I saw a car on I-95 in Massachusetts with two stickers:
“My Brother Is In The Air Force”
“Support Our Troops… We Will Need Them To Overthrow Our Government”
So, a data point: at least one family member of an Air Force member is actively hoping for a military coup d’état.
Schlemazel (parmesan rancor)
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
I don’t think any Dem other than Wellstone was clean enough in 08. I assumed (and lets be honest you have to assume a lot about most candidates at this stage because you have no idea exactly what they will do, all have sinned) that he was sincere about his ‘two Americas’ talk & about what he proposed to do about it. Could he have accomplished it? who knows? Obama promised a lot too & delivered on some & not on others. His fault or not is not the point, all Presidents are limited by reality.
FlipYrWhig
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Some
suckerspeople start with “Not Another Clinton” and wishful thinking about populism, and fit the rest of their emotional attachments around that core. And then it happens again.debbie
@Jeffro:
Yeah, Beck is definitely a talker. He doesn’t always follow up on his promises/threats and his listeners have short term memory issues, so he gets away with it. But he’s definitely in the tank for Cruz and will probably work very hard to convince Cruz to stay in the race. Fun times!
Steve in the ATL
@Matt McIrvin: I have advocated for the Air Force to lead any military coup because they are the most Jesusy branch of the military and will therefore rule the best!
humboldtblue
@raven: They can have a lot more of our rain if they wish, we’ve been fortunate to have near-normal levels of rain during the past five drought years and we’re getting far more than normal this year. Our reservoirs are full let the cloud fairies send the storms to the south.
FlipYrWhig
@Baud: Applejinx is a she? If so I’ve been getting that wrong for months…
smith
@Schlemazel (parmesan rancor):
Um, maybe I misunderstand, but Wellstone died in 2002.
Baud
@FlipYrWhig: I could be wrong. I usually am with such things. On the internet, it’s no big deal, but in real life….shakes head sadly.
trnc
I believe we underestimate Trump at our peril. I hope Hillary will prepare for the debates as if they will be a serious exchange of ideas AND be ready with a few needles. It would be bad indeed if she starts out like she’s talking to an idiot and he starts talking policy. It’s entirely possible he’s been studying and saving it up for when he needs it.
JCT
@Technocrat: when Glenn Beck makes perfect sense the situation is truly dire.
satby
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: That picture did bring a lump to my throat. I hope the honor of being nominated is a shield against the obnoxious behavior that’s coming his way. Judge Garland looks and sounds like a very decent guy.
Edited to correct judge’s name.
WereBear
Likewise.
Bernie started out declaring that he was primarily about raising issues and moving Democrats to the left. I think he’s succeeded spectacularly in that, and I don’t see him as someone with an ego problem. He’s quietly been getting things done for thirty years.
Technocrat
@Steve in the ATL:
How does the Air Force stage a coup anyway? Helicarriers?.
les
@singfoom:
Stop, fer fuck’s sake. The “working class voters” in Trump’s thrall are the Reagan Democrats–the racist assholes who became Republicans when the demon Dems passed the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act. If you think they’re voting for Hillary, you’re nuts. And any appeal that wins them alienates everybody else.
Mike J
@Matt McIrvin:
Because everybody hates the woman voted most admired woman in the world for a few straight decades.
Baud
@satby: He’s a real good judge.
Mnemosyne
@Technocrat:
I will be very curious to see what happens on the Republican side. Even our resident McCain/Romney troll, currently calling himself “Ready,” is having a really, really hard time choking down the Trump kool-aid. Having them stay home and not vote is almost as good as getting them to vote for Hillary.
Baud
@Mnemosyne: Arguably better, since they won’t be able to vote for downticket Republicans.
debbie
@Technocrat:
The irony of Beck’s description of Trump is that he’s also describing himself. He doesn’t literally call himself great, but he’s preening like a rooster behind his mic all show long.
Patricia Kayden
When asked on Morning Joe, who he consults about foreign policy, Trump says that he has a good brain and talks to himself.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3494966/I-m-speaking-Donald-Trump-says-good-brain-foreign-policy-matters-primarily-consults-himself.html
So Presidential.
debbie
@satby:
His acceptance speech was so moving. The GOP’s refusal to even meet with him will only make them look like ogres.
Baud
@Patricia Kayden: Arguably better than listening to the old Bush team.
Although he probably does that too.
Mnemosyne
@FlipYrWhig:
IIRC, Applejinx is a man, but I can’t remember if he’s gay or straight. (Significant only because being gay with a gender-neutral pseudonym can sometimes cause pronoun trouble.)
Technocrat
@Patricia Kayden:
Oh what a hoot:
This is basically “all of them, Katie” writ large.
eemom
Thanks Betty — I haz a honored.
Also thanks to the folks above who got what I meant. #notBrachiator
piratedan
observing the action over on the book of faces…. there’s a strong sense of the groundwork that the GOP has laid is still out there….
there are still people out that that say that Clinton (Hillary) is untrustworthy…
I fire back… over what?
They reply, e-mail scandal, Benghazi, Bill’s wandering ways make her unfit…
I reply, no indictments, no indictments and you’re gonna hold her to account that her husband got a hummer? In comparison to what? A guy who has never held public office and has declared bankruptcy multiple times and his idea of policy is mass deportations, building a wall and going after terrorists families?
I’m then told to piss off in short order…
There’s a LOT of people who have bought into the bullshit, many of them apparently middle aged white women who apparently are projecting all kinds of crap onto Ms. Clinton in thinking that because she couldn’t keep her horndog husband in check or that she forgave him or whatever branch on the decision tree that they wouldn’t have made somehow makes her unworthy and yet they’re willing to pull the lever for a guy who said that he’d hit on his daughter if she wasn’t related to him.
cripes there’s a lot of work to do to unfuck this country.
Eric U.
@Steve in the ATL:
Kasich got a question from a 16y.o. woman from Ohio the other night. He decided to try to use her inexperience driving to make a point. He ended up pleading with her to drive in the right lane. Driving 5 under in the left lane is the Ohio state sport.
Kay (not the front-pager)
lol When I see that all I can think of is, “As God is my witness I thought turkeys could fly.”
I do think repubs could win, even with Trump as their nominee, if there were a “October surprise” terrorist attack. Even people you would never expect can turn to a strongman if they get scared enough.
gogol's wife
@M31:
hahahaha
Patricia Kayden
@les: I’m always surprised when Progressives opine on how Democrats need to reach out to the White working class while ignoring why the White working class doesn’t vote for Democrats in the first place.
What part of Democratic talking points are repellent to the White working class?
Gin & Tonic
@Steve in the ATL:
When Massachusetts abolished the death penalty I’d bet a lot of people wanted to make an exception for that.
Elie
@Heliopause:
speak for yourself… Mass extinction is a “deserved” thing to you for the evil that is humanity? You oughta team up with Bob in Portland. You seem to have a similar world view.. maybe you can keep each other company as you wait for the release of Armageddon.
jl
@NotMax: Not sure link is any good. I got ‘not available’ message. Maybe it is just busy.
But, wow, if Trump loses, the book on his hilarious and disgusting disaster of campaign will be great.
If Trump loses, I guess the author of that report will be in jail.
Gin & Tonic
@trnc:
It’s entirely possible that I’ll win $300 million in the PowerBall and buy a penthouse apartment in the Trump Tower. Not very likely, but entirely possible.
Baud
Maybe Trump can win if he promises us a new thread.
Patricia Kayden
@Schlemazel (parmesan rancor): Or perhaps Trump will simply refuse to debate Clinton since he’s already said many times that he’ll be surprised if she’s allowed to run.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-shouldnt-be-allowed-run
jl
@Patricia Kayden:
” What part of Democratic talking points are repellent to the White working class? ”
Seems to me that HRC and Sanders are making a very good pitch to the White working class that is worried and angry about economic issues.
The ones that are captivated by Trumps bigot rage are lost, and really no way to reach them. Webb style he-man egghead nattering about Scots-Irish pride and heritage is a waste of time, and wrong headed, and dumb. I hope few Democrats try that. They are confused and wrong on substance, and foolish on tactics.
Peale
@Patricia Kayden: and why don’t progressives reach out to them themselves if they have the core message? And if what white working classes respond to aren’t progressive appeals, are they willing to cut Democrats any slack for trying to accommodate them?
Kropadope
@Patricia Kayden: I’m always surprised when Progressives opine on how Democrats need to reach out to the White working class while ignoring why the White working class doesn’t vote for Democrats in the first place.
You must mean “why some do and why some don’t.”
Jeffro
@Baud: Oh my, that IS a good point.
Stay home and stick to those principles, Romney Republicans!
Gin & Tonic
@smith: So he was certainly uncorrupted in 2008, wasn’t he?
les
@Matt McIrvin:
I am intrigued by your imagination and would like to sign up for your newsletter.
Bob In Portland
@FlipYrWhig: No.
Jeffro
@Technocrat:
“Palin with a combover”TM (or is it copyright?)
He’s everything the Establishment abhorred about her, at least after they lost in 2008.
Villago Delenda Est
@japa21: He’s vile Putinsucking shit.
Elie
@trnc:
Not likely. That is not his shtick. His peeps like the ignorant name caller. You don’t get that? Pleez. And if suddenly he started talking in tongues with some policy thoughts, I think Hilz could deal with it, since that is HER game.
I do not underestimate the threat this guy presents. Neither do I over think his attributes either. She will prepare for him as she would anyone — noting strengths, weaknesses and modeling an array of possible paths. She will also (I hope) use some emotional pulls too — this guy is ALL id and emotion.. a good play on that somehow would be excellent paired with policy at strategic points. He might do anything. Walk off the stage, pull out his shlong — who knows…
smith
@Gin & Tonic: Certainly far beyond any temptations. I’m assuming the poster was thinking of another good guy Midwesterner, like Feingold. The reason that jumped out at me is that I clearly recall the emotions at that time. After the installation of Bush the Lesser and then 9/11, it really felt like karma had just gone too far. We really didn’t deserve that.
Brachiator
@Mnemosyne:
It may make a difference in states like Ohio, Michigan, etc.
I have noted in a number of posts that in 2012 more white men voted for Obama than white women. This was consistent. Also,when there is a strong ideological bent to elections, white men vote higher for the GOP candidate than usual. This election, if HRC is the nominee will be unusual. If more Democratic white men defect to Trump, and if young voters do not turn out, HRC may have a problem.
Note that this is what you would look for in polling trends after the conventions. What is happening in the primaries is not definitive. And there is nothing that says that the Democrats will not be able to overcome these potential problems.
Everything involving Trump is a wild card that complicates the Dem reaction, even GOTV.
Elie
@Villago Delenda Est:
He’s a sad dude man. Sad.
chopper
watch out, bob in portland is gonna take his ball and go home.
WereBear
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I was jazzed about Edwards until I looked up his voting record.
Aha, I said. A poseur.
Technocrat
@Elie:
(Hillary takes a moment to adjust her mic): “Sorry, I need to adjust this a bit…I have small hands”.
“Donald, you know what that’s like”.
Bob In Portland
@Matt McIrvin: Had a friend who was a vet of the army rangers back in the early sixties. He was in Vietnam before JFK knew we were in Vietnam. He excelled as a sharpshooter.
After his time in Nam he was moved to one of those bases down in the South. His unit would be deployed to countries where the US was overthrowing someone and there needed to be a presence. Half the time he didn’t even know what country they were being sent to, just told to shoot any black face in the streets.
One day they were put in an airplane and flown around for 24 hours. I presume that they refueled in the air, because they never touched down that day. When they finally did, the next day, he learned that JFK had been shot. He was sure that they were being flown around, starting before the actual assassination, to be ready to stop any public disturbances or riots around the country. But none happened. So no sweat.
NotMax
@jl
Do try again. I just clicked on the link and it worked fine.
Or you may be able to get there via this Mother Jones squib about it.
raven
@Bob In Portland: ” before JFK knew we were in Vietnam” Bullshit, you and him.
Elie
@Technocrat:
Hehehehehe! Not bad!
Bob In Portland
@japa21: Because we’re going to go to war when Hillary is elected? Do you really have any doubts? Am I raining on your parade here? Clinton is a cold warrior, has been since she wrote that speech for Melvin Laird pushing for bombing North Vietnam. I’m sorry your feelings are hurt. She’s not a peace candidate.
Kropadope
@smith:
Yeah, I remember that. I had just bought Wellstone’s book and thought he was just awesome. I remember his funeral on the news while I was on break at work. That was when I was in my first Freshman year of college
Brachiator
@Betty Cracker:
People blame the media like they blame the devil or the Baby Jebus. It gets old and quickly becomes unchallenged conventional wisdom.
And you and I would probably agree that people run to media to have their biases reinforced. You see this with Faux News and Rush Limbaugh people.
But more specifically, I followed the 2000 election closely. The media finger pointing is hugely overrated. And people will agree and nod their heads without ever considering other factors or offering any evidence to support their position.
But in any event, Dubya is old news. Rehashing the 2000 election would be about as much fun as reading another post from someone bashing Obama for failing to get us the public option.
Gin & Tonic
@Bob In Portland: I know all of us should be defined by what we did as a 21-year-old college intern. Certainly none of us has grown or changed any of our positions in a half-century.
SiubhanDuinne
@raven:
That’s beautiful! I love crabapples. Such pretty leaves and blossoms.
raven
@Gin & Tonic: He’s not only a moron he’s a lying fucker.
NotMax
@Brachiator
Tilden wuz robbed!
;)
Gin & Tonic
@raven: Yeah, we’ve had some back-and-forth in the past. You probably know that.
raven
@Gin & Tonic: Oh yeah.
Villago Delenda Est
@debbie: It’s always projection with right wing types.
Always.
akryan
@singfoom: I don’t know if it’s any comfort, because it’s anecdotal, but as a high school teacher (basically the same demographic as the college kids Bernie gets out) I can tell you that my students (most all are Bernie fans) are TERRIFIED of the idea of a Trump presidency. I live in about as a red a state as you can imagine too. Even the seniors whose parents are the wingnuttiest of wingnuts say they’ll never vote for Trump. I wouldn’t worry about the youth vote showing up to the polls if Trump is the candidate. Their fear of him will far outweigh their ambivelence (two lazee to luk up the spelin) to Hillary.
Technocrat
@Bob In Portland:
Abraham Lincoln, warmonger!
SiubhanDuinne
@JCT:
It hardly matters what the topic is, Trump can’t seem to keep himself from lying even when there’s no obvious benefit to him. For instance, someone on FB put up dueling time-stamped clips of Trump calling in on two morning network shows yesterday (I think it was). First he was on ABC’s morning program and they asked him if he had seen the commercial of various women reading his own quotes about women, and he said, yes, he had seen it. Two minutes later, he called in to the Today show on NBC; they asked him the same question, and h said, no, he had heard about it but hadn’t had a chance to see it yet. I mean, what is even the point of lying like that? And does he honestly not realize that whatever he says into a mic is going to be archived and analyzed and scrutinized inside out?
Peale
@Matt McIrvin: Yeah, but who? The establishment doesn’t have anyone with much charisma. The last third party candidate who made a difference (as in got more than 10% of the vote) was Perot. And although his voice annoyed me, the feisty crank could appeal. Paul Ryan? Ready dropped Mitch Daniels name….seriously, do you see angry Democratic Party voters fed up with Clintom flocking to Mitch Daniels? The establishment idea of what makes a candidate appealing is way different than what Democratic voters find interesting.
Mike J
I hate to violate the rules of the site by saying something nice, but even if the site rebuild was ugly, hasn’t it seemed snappier with 250-300 comment threads than it was in times past?
Brachiator
@Elie:
People keep saying that Trump will doom himself, and they keep being proved wrong. And by the way, I was one of those who was wrong early and often.
If we are using Greek myths, Trump reminds me of Antaeus. Opponents would wrestle with him and throw him to the ground. But he would only get up and fight again and kill all opponents. His mother was the Earth goddess, and contact with the ground renewed his strength. Heracles fought him, held him up so he would not touch the ground and finally beat him.
You might be right. I certainly hope so. And I agree that Trump will likely take HRC for granted. He may not even listen to his own strategists, which is definitely a weakness of his.
piratedan
@Mike J: Mike, you’re destroying the narrative man…… and yes, I concur, these bad boys load faster than they used to, at least for me in FF.
Bob In Portland
@raven: There were supposed to be only advisors in Nam at the time, I’m guessing it was somewhere 61-62, not combat troops. Just like there are no combat troops in Syria now, raven. Or in Ukraine. Just a couple advisors.
He’s probably dead now so calling bullshit on him doesn’t do any good. The poor guy couldn’t stay in town during Fleet Week in SF because the Blue Angels practicing would give him flashbacks of Nam.
But it’s interesting that you get so bent out of shape. I know, if there was a coup you’d have noticed it. Just like you noticed the coup in Honduras in 2009, right?
I think that Ukraine is pretty much written off by the US these days. They may do something to knock out the gas pipelines, but having that open sore on Russia’s border is probably their best use. I suspect something farther east. Expect one or more of the following: A leader in one of the “stans” will suddenly be discovered to be a bad man. You know, like Saddam was a bad man, and bin Laden was a bad man, and Khadafy was a bad man, and the Ayatollah was a bad man. That kind of bad man. A bad man who is no longer useful for Foggy Bottom. So a bad man. Then there will be an event that will muster our troops. Maybe the bad man will shoot at peaceful protesters, excuses used in Venezuela, Ukraine and Syria. Then we’re either bombing them with cruise missiles, supplying weaponry for the local Salafist movement or something equally destabilizing.
Raven, remember this exchange. Then you can apologize to me next year.
NotMax
@Mike J
Might credit that to the host’s server upgrades.
Mnemosyne
@Brachiator:
Huh? I’m looking at a US News & World Report article from 8/12/14 titled “The Democrats’ (White) Male Problem” and it says Romney got 62 percent of the white male vote. He got 56 percent of the white female vote.
SiubhanDuinne
@raven: Yes, apparently the pollen you can see is too large and heavy to be breathed in and cause problems. It’s the microscopic tiny-particulate stuff you can’t see that gets into your eyes and nose and windpipe and sinuses and lungs. I am very blessed that I’ve rarely suffered too much from Atlanta pollen (although when I lived in Florida I was absolutely miserable when the orange trees were blossoming) — a little stuffiness, a little drippiness, but most years nothing too awful.
Villago Delenda Est
@chopper: Eisenhower took any talk of rolling back a lot of the New Deal off the table.
That’s not a bad position for anyone to take.
JMG
@Brachiator: One assumption the top echelon of the Washington political media DO share is that votes of white men are of more significance than anybody else’s votes — especially those salt of the earth blue collar guys who’d be hanging out at the union hall if their state had unions. So Trump gets a pass on blatant xenophobia and racism because to highlight it on a daily basis would force them to admit that many of those salt of the earthers are just assholes.
Mnemosyne
@Brachiator:
The 56 percent number for women is from the New Yorker, 11/8/12, “What’s Up With White Women? They Voted For Romney, Too”
raven
@Bob In Portland: You’re full of shit. First you say JFK didn’t know we were there in “the early 60’s.” He was elected in Nov, 1960 and LBJ (fuck him too) was sent there in May, 1961 when we had 3,200 men there. Just when the fuck in the “early 60’s” did JFK not know we were there? When you start out with obvious bullshit I’m here to call your ass on it.
ThresherK
I promise, just one last “Lady ManNames” team in the womens’ NCAAs: The Duquesne Lady Dukes (du-KANE).
Marist’s Red Foxes, a favorite, are not in this year. However the South Dakota State Lady Jackrabbits are ready for your rooting interest.
Brachiator
@eemom:
Actually, I got what you meant. But Trump and Trump’s supporters love tantrums and thrive on childish reactions.
Poopyman
@Elie:
That would be perfect, because she would have the perfect answer – point and belly laugh.
Bob In Portland
@Gin & Tonic: Well, I was looking up references to Clinton during this period. She was head of the Young Republicans her freshman year. She then worked for Gene McCarthy. She then attended the Republican convention. She then attended the Democratic convention. Somewhere that year she wrote the paper supporting the bombing of Hanoi for then-congressman Melvin Laird. That’s a lot of flipflops for one year. Usually a political change in one’s belief system doesn’t happen on a monthly basis. So what was she?
And her summer interning for the law firm in Oakland that was defending the Black Panthers at the time? I guess that was a year or two later.
So what turned her against the war and then back for it and then back against it? Why would she go to both the Republican national convention and the Democratic national convention? Just had some extra change in her pocket?
I have suspected for twenty years now that she and Bill were working for the government going back to their college years. There were a lot of young go-getters who were getting stipends from the FBI (COINTELPRO), military intelligence, the CIA et al spying on student organizations, especially anti-war groups. Carl Oglesby’s RAVENS IN THE STORM was a good book for capturing the government efforts in spying on the anti-war movement. Oglesby describes looking through documents released through the FOIA about how one meeting of eight SDS people turned out to be eight government informants from different agencies. Daniel Brandt has an essay on line about how the anti-war movement changed from 67 to 68. But don’t trouble yourselves. You guys know everything already.
Thoroughly Pizzled
@Mnemosyne: 510-28 in favor of Romney if only white people voted in 2012.
Gin & Tonic
@Bob In Portland:
Pretty much like you apologized to me after *guaranteeing* that synagogues would go up in flames in Kiev in 2014.
ThresherK
There’s a psychics’ commercial on basic cable right now with the first-rate production values of a Bristol-Myers Squibb drug ad. It leaves the rent-to-own and second-mortgage pikers in the dust.
I want great physical harm to come to someone for this.
Bob In Portland
@raven: He didn’t know there were combat troops. That help? He knew we were in Vietnam because we’d been there propping up the South Vietnamese since Dien Bien Phu in 1954. Did you ever read about JFK’s trip to Vietnam in the fifties?
@FlipYrWhig: So if you get paid by Corzine you’re on the Goldman Sachs team? How about if they slip you a quarter million a few times? Are you on their team?
The Sheriff Endorses Baud 2016
I have the hardest time seeing a nation that elected – and re-elected – a black man with a funny name to the highest office in the land, sending an openly racist and fascist douche to the same office.
Brachiator
@Mnemosyne:
This is looking at national numbers. Don’t mean squat. We aggregate state votes, and every state tells a specific story.
I deal with numbers for business. During a couple of off days, because I am a dope, I went over the 2012 presidential exit polls for every state that reported numbers by race and gender. If I had more time, I would have looked more at age as well.
Quick example, Obama carried Ohio, 50 percent to 48 percent. 36 percent of white men voted for Obama. 46 percent of white women voted for him. The African American vote was critical.
In Iowa, by contrast, 42 percent of white men voted for Obama, but 58 percent of white women voted for him. Here a clear majority of women.
In every state outside the Deep South, more white women voted for Obama than did white men.
For 2016, gender may be more of an issue.
In LA of all places, I hear crap on the radio about how “real men” should not vote for Obama. A lot of this is gas, but I will be looking to see how gender is reflected in this election.
ETA: totally unrelated, I have to thank you for hooking me up with Hamilton. I am finally able to give it a serious listen, and find it better and deeper than the hype could possibly suggest. If I already thanked you, forgive the redundancy.
Bob In Portland
@Gin & Tonic: The trouble with predictions is that they don’t necessarily conform to your or my timelines. But the Latvians are beating up black US soldiers. Will that tide you over until the next pogrom?
How’s the Ukrainian economy doing these days? Have they joined the EU yet?
raven
@Bob In Portland: Yea, well say what you mean.
Gardenfli
@satby:
He does. He teared up at the Rose Garden announcement, AND he sold his comic book collection to pay for law school. How can you not like that? Of course, I’m going to have to find out what was in his collection before I commit to supporting him or not ;)
Chyron HR
@Gin & Tonic:
Stop purging him with your facts and memory, you Stalinist.
Bob In Portland
@Gin & Tonic: Here you go.
@Chyron HR: Nice to see you still standing tall with the Ukrainian fascists.
Bob In Portland
@raven: Well, you get five minutes to edit your posts. I corrected it in another post. You can see, it’s right before you started cursing.
raven
@Bob In Portland: I’ll curse all I want to. I cursed when I was there and I’ve cursed ever since. Xin Loi motherfucker.
Mnemosyne
@Brachiator:
Okay, but you said the opposite, presumably by mistake — you said that white WOMEN voted for Romney more than white MEN did.
More white men voted for Romney than white women did, by 6 percentage points.
And you know you’ve been listening to “Hamilton” too much when the early numbers make you tear up because you know what happens in the second act.
;-)
Gin & Tonic
@Bob In Portland: You said Kiev back in 2014, and yet you supply a link to a firebombing in Mykolayiv (Nikolaev.) Do you have any idea where that is, and who is most likely to have been responsible there?
Chyron HR
@Bob In Portland:
Troll harder, son.
Matt McIrvin
@Mike J:
Hillary Clinton got 13% of the vote in that poll. It’s an impressive showing but it obviously doesn’t preclude a majority of Americans hating her.
patroclus
Hey Bob in Portland – are you ever going to respond to me with any evidence supporting your blaming of Clinton for the coup in Honduras in 2009? You baited poster after poster about not responding to you; I read multiple websites, including lengthy summaries of the Wikileaks documents released in 2010, and there isn’t any evidence about Clinton’s involvement. I asked you to provide some. You ignored it. Are you going to respond now?
Jeffro
@Gardenfli:
if it paid for his whole law school tuition, it must have been the really Good Stuff.
in which case, I heartily approve as long as he kept one or two of his faves.
patroclus
Hey Bob in Portland – I’ve been waiting for days for you to respond with any kind of evidence supporting your allegation that Clinton was responsible for the 2009 coup in Honduras. Are you ever going to provide any evidence at all?
Bob In Portland
@Gin & Tonic: You’ll have to repost what I said in 2014. Did I say that it would be within the Kiev city limits? My predictions are more general. So a firebombing down the road doesn’t count? Mykolyiv appears to be a little north of Odessa, where the Ukrainian fascists roasted a few dozen people a few weeks later.
Look, if you’re happy with what the US did with Ukraine who am I to rain on your parade? I saw something recently where there are only sixty-thousand Jews left in Ukraine anyway, so maybe, with my fear of what the Ukrainian fascists did in the past unduly influenced my concerns.
So what say you? Ukraine, Dagestan, Tajikistan?
patroclus
Hey Bob in Portland – I’m still waiting for you to provide any kind of evidence whatsoever that Clinton was responsible for the 2009 Honduras coup as you repeatedly alleged on Sunday and Monday. I read lengthy summaries of the Wikileaks documents that were released in 2010 and there isn’t anything there that even remotely supports your allegations. Why is that? Why don’t you respond with some evidence? I don’t understand why you would make such allegations and then fail to respond to people who have looked into the evidence.
Renie
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: in the mc cain pix love how the elevator arrow points down LOL
patroclus
Hey Bob in Portland. I have now asked – repeatedly – for you to respond with some actual evidence supporting your allegation that Hillary Clinton was responsible for the 2009 Honduras coup. You keep responding to others but you continue to ignore me. Why is that? Do you not actually have any such evidence? I’ve visited Honduras and know many people there. Why would you make such allegations with no evidence?
Bob In Portland
@patroclus: There are a number of articles, but why should I link to them if you don’t read them?
Try this: type Clinton Honduras Coup in google. There was one back in Salon in 2015, but there are plenty of others. Since we’ve done this gandy-dancing before and what generally follows, I’ll save you time.
“Salon sucks.” Or “The Nation sucks.” Or The PIttsburgh Gazette sucks. It doesn’t matter. You won’t read the articles. You’ll just attack the sources.
As I understand it, Clinton essentially let it happen and once it happened did nothing to get the duly elected president back in power. Oh, those Honduran kids Hillary wants to deport back there? You think it has any connection with that coup. At the time of the coup Obama spoke against it and Hillary, well, she must have been triangulating.
patroclus
Hey Bob in Portland. I am trying yet again to get you to respond substantively regarding your allegation that Hillary Clinton was responsible for the overthrow of Manuel Zelaya in 2009. Is it that you just don;t want to respond or do you just not have any evidence for your allegations?
SiubhanDuinne
@raven:
This is quite possibly your Best. Comment. EVAH.
raven
@SiubhanDuinne: You Bic Xin Loi?
patroclus
Thank You!!@!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You actually responded! I’m almost in disbelief!@!! Yes, I’ll read each and every article you cite – too bad you didn’t provide any. So your basic allegation has backtracked from she’s responsible for it to she “let it happen.” That’s quite a switch. You realize, of course, that the action was taken by the Honduran military after Zelaya had repeatedly violated Honduran Supreme Court orders and that there was a duly elected Honduran legislative vote removing him from office after the Honduran military kidnapped him and flew him to Costa Rica and forced him under duress to submit a letter of resignation. Are you aware of the subsequent agreement between Zelaya and his successor accepting the results? Perhaps you should read up on it. the Wiki site is quite informative and any google search will yield other good articles. Hillary Clinton’s involvement has only mentioned by you. Why don’t you blame Obama? Or the CIA? Why would the traditionally mealy-mouthed cautious State Department be involved? I’m just not following your theory…
But if you’ve backtracked to “she just let it happen” then you really aren’t saying much. So I take it you have no evidence.
chopper
@Bob In Portland:
every time I try, google autocompletes it to “bob in portland is a lying fucker”. odd.
Gin & Tonic
@Bob In Portland: Here you go, Bob.
raven
@Gin & Tonic: If he did know a ranger it’s a shame that he bastardized what the dude said.
Bob In Portland
@patroclus: No, she parachuted into the jungles and led a Seal team, just like in Yugoslavia.
Just so that I’m not accused by you of accusing Clinton of parachuting into Honduras, the above was snark. I posted a quick list. Apparently, if you use too many links you go to moderation. So google for yourself, or have a drink or whatever you do to cool your heels.
If you haven’t heard of Hillary and Honduras then you have been assiduously avoiding it.
http://www.salon.com/2015/06/08/exclusive_hillary_clinton_sold_out_honduras_lanny_davis_corporate_cash_and_the_real_story_about_the_death_of_a_latin_america_democracy/
patroclus
Personally, I love Salon and the Nation. I don’t know anything about the Pittsburgh Gazette. What Bob in Portland perhaps doesn’t understand is that I’ve already done the research and he issues surrounding the coup don’t really involve Hillary Clinton. In fact, the State Department summary largely takes the position that the coup was illegal – this was by the then-Ambassador. So why do you think we should have intervened militarily? The U.S. State Department certainly didn’t want to intervene and have largely been trying to calm the situation since. Why would you allege that she was responsible for the coup? Manuel Zelaya doesn’t even allege that (although he is writing a book which is highly anticipated).
raven
@patroclus: What Bob in Portland perhaps doesn’t understand . . .could fill Lake Michigan.
nellcote
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ccxg6M8UUAANd0_.jpg
Bob In Portland
@Gin & Tonic: This is what I wrote:
Since I was talking about fascism generally, and was talking a country with a virulent history of anti-Semitism which culminated in over a million Jews being exterminated by Ukrainians in WWII, and since using the capital of a country for the whole country, it seems you may have read what I wrote too literally. Geez, how many synagogues are actually in Kiev anymore?
Also, you’ll note that in that passage I did not say where will you be when the synagogues go up in flames in 2014.
But when the crowd here feels the need to attack they attack. How’s things going in Ukraine since the coup?
By the way, did you ever get around to reading this article?
sm*t cl*de
@Bob In Portland:
I can only speculate that BiP has confused Harrods with Ladbrokes.
Bob In Portland
@raven: Yes, nothing quite as ego-building as insulting someone, is there, raven?
Bob In Portland
@sm*t cl*de: Probably did. But still, where do you think her next war will be?
Bob In Portland
@patroclus: Then feel free to read all the other articles. And if you’re convinced that Hillary is clean, then boffo, you’ll be happy with her.
raven
@Bob In Portland: Whiny bitch.
Gin & Tonic
@Bob In Portland: How many synagogues? Five. That’s easy enough to find. Also easy enough to find the views of Jewish community leaders on the current situation
And thanks, I’ve read enough Katrina vanden Heuvel and Stephen Cohen to last the rest of my life.
Bob In Portland
@raven: Now you’re showing off. Do you have any loved ones of military age? In the desert or permafrost? So many countries and only four years.
Bob In Portland
@Gin & Tonic: Oh, and how are things in Ukraine after the coup? Pretty good, eh? How’s the GNP? And when does it enter the EU?
Oh, and you linked to a quote of mine that didn’t say that there were going to be synagogues burning in Kiev on any date in 2014. So that was just a mistake on your part.
And when you read my quote you somehow interpreted it as a specific prediction of a synagogue burning within the city limits of Kiev, and you did not take it as a statement of what I generally foresaw with the fascists who killed a million Jews in WWII being put back in power?
Well, I think the first order of business should be for Hillary and the Kaganites to provide more military aid to the fascists. There are so many more hospitals and schools in Donbass to shell.
Bob In Portland
@Gin & Tonic: Well, then you close that mind of yours, and close it to all of the other authors I’ve linked to also.
Gin & Tonic
@Bob In Portland:
I read the words you wrote. If you meant something else, you should have said it.
This will go like all of the other exchanges have gone, so I’m out. Have a nice evening, Bob.
patroclus
Thanks for the Salon link. The very article you cited contains this statement “It’s impossible to accuse Clinton of foreknowledge of the coup.” So, your article contradicts you – directly. It goes on to say that Clinton was initially mealy mouthed about it and didn’t label it a “coup” quickly (though she ultimately did). And, it says that she was against military action to restore Zelaya, which I certainly agree with. Further, it says that questions should be asked of her – I agree with that too. And, it implies that, after-the-fact, she is somehow responsible for what the Honduran military did and what the Honduran legislature did. Which is apparently your position. But not mine. The Hondurans are responsible for what they do – not the U.S., in my view.
So your initial allegation is unsupported by any link and is instead contradicted by the one you provided. And your essential criticism is that we should have intervened and Obama/Clinton didn’t want to and didn’t. That appears – to me at least – that Clinton’s anti-interventionist position has somehow been morphed into criticism of her for intervening too much, which she and the U.S. didn’t do. Would Sanders have intervened?
Frankly, I’m just not following your criticism at all. She was anti-interventionist and diplomatic and you are criticizing her for intervening when she didn’t and, when called on that, you backtrack and criticize her for being anti-interventionist. Whatever. To me, it seems you are really reaching in criticizing her for the actions of the Hondurans. Unless you have further evidence, I don’t think you have much of a point.
Ruckus
@Eric U.:
No, coming down the on ramp at 5 mph and stopping rather than merging, then pulling out in front of a truck and making a left turn for the fast lane, 25 mph below the speed of the traffic is the OH state sport. I used to see this several times a day in my 16 mile commute. I’m amazed that more people aren’t killed driving in OH. That and driving smack down the middle of the road in a snow storm, hoping that the opposing traffic will magically get out of their way. Primarily by driving off the road into a farm field.
Steve in the ATL
@sm*t cl*de: This is arguably off topic, uh, the topic apparently being arguing, but I was in Harrod’s the day they started selling Krispy Kreme donuts. My kids immediately got in line for them. I wasn’t too keen on paying 2.50 pounds per donut, but they were giving out samples to people in line so we ate a couple of those then got out of line and went back to listening to Paul McCartney’s atrocity “Simply Having a Wonderful Christmastime” that was playing in every [expletive deleted] store ad nauseum even though it was only November because the Brits don’t celebrate Thanksgiving for reasons that escape me.
Steve in the ATL
@patroclus:
Wow–haven’t heard anyone say that for YEARS
patroclus
And while I was reading the link, which you insisted I wouldn’t do, you have apparently moved on and provided no further evidence. The Salon article basically confirmed what I’ve read on the issue. Zelaya acted unconstitutionally by violating (repeatedly) Honduran Supreme Court rulings; the Honduran military and legislature responded (without Clinton’s foreknowledge) in a way that also seemed unconstitutional. The U.S. stayed out of the dispute and ultimately tried to broker a settlement (which ultimately happened). Like I said initially, I think Obama acted correctly here in a non-interventionist fashion and I don’t think State had much to do with it. You can believe what you want, but even your link confirms this analysis. It says virtually nothing about Clinton other than that she supported Obama’s non-interventionist policy. For which, in my view, she deserves credit.
Bob In Portland
@Gin & Tonic: @Gin & Tonic: Again. I didn’t say 2014. So you lied. Or you made a mistake.
And while it is self-evident that I didn’t predict actual specific synagogue burnings within the city limits of Kiev in the year 2014, as you declared I did, a synaagogue was torched just down the road, not far from Odessa, where people were actually burned to death in a building by the fascists in 2014.
Not so principled, are you?
patroclus
@Steve in the ATL: I’ve liked Salon for years, the article Bob linked was good and accurate and directly contradicted Bob’s earlier allegations. Honduras is a beautiful country and had a trying time in 2009-10. Virtually no one blames that situation on the U.S. although Presidents other than Obama might not have resisted the urge to intervene (as we certainly did in 1954).
patroclus
Y lo siento to all posters for killing this thread (but at least it was in the 300’s before I did it).
randy khan
@Brachiator:
The research I’m thinking of is of two types – normal oppo research (which with Trump you can get by reading old copies of Spy, come to think of it), but more important knowing what he’s saying about her in his stump speeches and what “facts” he makes up and uses repeatedly. Having ready responses to these sorts of things will be very helpful, and you can be sure her team will take care of it.
Bill Arnold
@charluckles:
Economy tanks for some unexpected reason or confluence of reasons. Trump wins.
Hillary self-destructs somehow due to some actually-real scandal. Trump wins.
Trump plays negative sound-bite politics better than Hillary. Trump wins. (OK this last is a stretch.)
trnc
@Elie:
It doesn’t have to be his shtick during the primaries and his peeps will never leave him if Hillary is the other choice, even if he starts softening his tone. I have never paid much attention to him, so I’m not sure if he has peaked intellectually or not, but part of debate strategy is lowering expectations. Could Trump possibly lower anyone’s expectations at this point? If he forms a complete sentence, he’ll probably be declared the winner. If he says anything that sounds remotely like policy, CNN will probably call the election right there.
I agree that it’s unlikely, and Hillary will probably be prepared for anything, but I don’t think it’s a done deal.
trnc
Scratch that last post. I take it all back. There’s no way anyone with an IQ over 75 would plagiarize Ben Carson.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-plagarism-carson-op-ed
sm*t cl*de
Trump bought Carson, therefore he owns Carson’s words now, therefore NOT PLAGIARISM.
Also too, no-one calls it ‘plagiarism’ when Trump attaches his name to a ghostwriter’s work, so how is it plagiarism if he attaches his name to someone else’s ghostwriter’s work?
AxelFoley
@Schlemazel (parmesan rancor):
How the fuck can any Dem/liberal/progressive say this bullshit?
If Obama isn’t a liberal, then there’s no such thing.
Matt McIrvin
@Peale: I think Mitt Romney could peel off a lot of otherwise-Democratic voters if he were a surprise candidate this year. He got 47.2% of the popular vote against Obama, who was clearly a better, more charismatic campaigner than anyone running this time. He was a good enough debater to score clean hits against Obama in the first debate.
I don’t think he would actually win, because he’d be either a third-party stop-Trump insurgent, or the selection of a rump Republican Party rebelling against its own voters. But if he were third-party, there’s the danger that there might actually be more centrist Democratic-leaners with an antipathy to Hillary Clinton and a shaky grasp of strategy than Republicans actually willing to sink the ship to stop Trump.