.@MichelleObama makes it harder for a future president to scrap her South Lawn legacy https://t.co/vGtmstK74C | @jnshinkle pic.twitter.com/S0MAyVJsVq
— POLITICO (@politico) October 6, 2016
And what gardener wouldn’t, given her gifts?
… On Wednesday afternoon, Obama unveiled a much bigger version of the garden, which uses cement, stone and steel to make it a more permanent fixture on the South Lawn. The updates are seen not just as preserving Obama’s garden — recognized globally as a symbol of local food — but also as a way to dissuade, say, a President Donald Trump from scrapping it the way Ronald Reagan tore out Jimmy Carter’s solar panels after he moved into the White House.
“I think people would be really upset,” said Marta McDowell, a landscape historian who recently wrote a book on White House gardens. She called Obama’s preservation plan “brilliant,” adding, “If it were taken out, it would truly just be a political statement.”…
The White House has already made arrangements with the National Park Service for the future upkeep of the garden, which has served as the backdrop of meetings with world leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel. It has even managed to secure a private $2.5 million funding stream for maintenance to defray the cost to taxpayers.
“I take great pride in knowing that this little garden will live on as a symbol of the hopes and dreams we all hold of growing a healthier nation for our children,” Obama said in an emotional speech Wednesday afternoon as she dedicated the garden before an audience of advocates, food industry leaders and others who have helped with Let’s Move!, her signature childhood obesity campaign…
With all the uncertainty, however, it’s clear that the latest iteration of the first lady’s vegetable garden is built to last. Sawdust pathways have been widened and replaced with blue stone. The garden features a large new, stone-paved seating area and a prominent archway, cemented into the lawn.
Underneath, a large paving stone carries an inscription: “WHITE HOUSE KITCHEN GARDEN, established in 2009 by First Lady Michelle Obama with the hope of growing a healthier nation for our children.”…
Good for Mrs. Obama, and I look forward to seeing Hillary Clinton’s little grandkids playing there in a year or two.
Given we’re all pretty distracted by the upcoming election, what’s going on in your garden(s) this week?
Another week with no rain.
I hope it doesn’t rain on the doggie parade!
I’m sure if(God forbid) Trump became President, he’d have no problems bringing his bulldozers in and ripping that garden out.
Good Morning ?, Everyone ?
I love that FLOTUS did this.
@rikyrah: Good morning!
And good for FLOTUS for taking steps to make that garden permanent.
You know you’re in trouble when you are such a molester of women that even Arnold ‘das Groper’ Schwarzenegger can’t support you:
Edited to add, Condi Rice is out too:
Hey, Condi? If you want political candidates with dignity and stature, maybe you become a Democrat.
I love this permanency, though I’m a bit sorry about the permanent outsourcing – the maintenance grant – and the precedent it might set. OTOH, every White House from Adams to Truman had a vegetable patch on property. Glad we’ve got that back.
I planted my indoor hydroponics for winter greens, herbs, peppers and tomatoes. I’m trying to figure out if I’ve got room for another for strawberries.
@BillinGlendaleCA: He’d show her how to build a garden. It would be YOOOGE! The BEST! Covered in GOLD!
Tsk, tsk. it’s der Groper, not das Groper. You want the nominative case of the masculine definite article here, not the nominative/accusative of the neuter. At least you did remember to put an initial cap on the noun.
That garden is another reason to vote for Hillary, I think, and for any and all competent Democratic nominees in the future. Neither she nor Bill may have much time for gardening once they’re back in the White House, but at least they’ll respect what Michelle Obama left behind. You’d fear for the garden under any Republican administration.
@JGabriel: And here I thought Arnold would be repelled on behalf of the hispanic children he fathered with his housekeeper.
“Controversial” school lunch guidelines. Not really. The only people who objected to the school lunch rules were lobbyists for processed foods (because they specifically target children) and a fringe of GOP parents who had absolutely no interest in what kids were eating in school until they got a chain email that Michelle Obama was somehow involved.
School food was garbage. Since there’s no good reason to feed them garbage and since half of the school lunches in our school are paid for by the federal government, I’m glad she raised the standards. If kids are actually hungry they’ll eat what’s available, even if it has an occasional healthy element.
@Amir Khalid: I think Bill, having gone vegan, might be very interested in the garden.
@OzarkHillbilly: Nah, he’d build a really classy ballroom there. He’s already said the Obamas are low class holding state dinners in a tent.
He’d build a ballroom, put his name on it, but someone else would own it. It would be loaded with liens because no one who built it would get paid, and we’d have a sheriff’s auction on the White House lawn.
@Kay: But it’d be a very classy auction, Kay.
@BillinGlendaleCA: It’ll be YOOOOOGE! The CLASSIEST! Gold gilt EVERYWHERE! 17 stories, all in GLASS!
Hello, All. I’m in upstate New York visiting my Mom. Gray and rain expected — like always. But fabulous Italian food on the menu tonight! Back home my garden is still hanging on. Some sun gold tomatoes and poblano peppers are still ripening. But a frost can’t be too far away….
I love Michelle Obama.
@Kay: And then the Russians would repossess it.
I am so pleased the FLOTUS garden is now something of a legacy installation.
It was with sour amusement that I saw how something that should be foolproof: helping kids stay healthy, would turn into a screeching talking point.
But then, their opponents are very special fools indeed.
@Kay: This is an angle I hadn’t considered — remember how republicans went Cra Cra over the Lincoln bedroom donor visits? Trump would require rent for everything, down to school trip visits run by Trump Travel.
But that’ll never happen
@OzarkHillbilly: and CHROME. Don’t forget the CHROME!!
I posted an article abour the Drive by Truckers and it got zero response. Here’s another about them and othe progressive southern music groups.
Exactly how did “classy” get associated with Trump. He’s proven to be anything but.
Everything donnie dick says about himself = exact opposite.
Everything donnie dick says about others = exact opposite.
@Baud: the same way “fiscal conservative” got associated with Republicans: through an avalanche of bullshit p.r.
@Baud: Lies, damn lies, and everything Trump says.
@Baud: speaking of classy, what’s the over/under on Trump saying “Crooked Hillary” at tonight’s debate?
@Immanentize: What’s the over/under that Trump says Crooked HIllary during the first five minutes?
He’s going to come at her like a bitch.
She’s going to kick his ass.
What Trump will do for America
Believe it or not, I debated whether I should use das or der before posting that comment, and decided that while Schwarzenegger is male, not all gropers are male – and since the article applies to Groper rather than Arnold, the article should be probably neutral. But if a fluent German speaker (which I am not and nowhere near) wants to tell me that Groper is always masculine no matter the gender of the groper, then I will bow to their superior knowledge of the language.
So, are you a fluent German speaker, Amir, or just reasoning from basic knowledge? If the former, then I defer to your better judgement, sir.
Paul Ryan reacts to Trump’s latest
Hillary at tonight’s debate
Speaking of gardens, an interesting NYT article about new apple strains that actually taste good.
@Joel: Heh. I think perhaps you overestimate Arnold.
what is the over/under that the deadbeat says the media is being mean to him, so he won’t do the debate?
@amk: Hard to say, since the questions in the town hall format will be mostly coming from civilians. That argument won’t get too far.
I think Trump is actually too much of a coward to come after Clinton confrontationally tonight. Sure there’ll be a lot of braggadocio and insinuation leading up to the debate, as we’ve already seen, but once Donald is onstage with Hillary, I think he’ll chicken out – although he might go off on one of the audience questioners if they ask something he doesn’t like.
My fingers are crossed that Trump bombs at tonight’s debate. If he does I’ll be convinced he’s toast come election day. At this point even if he’s okay I don’t think it’s going to help. Whoever is set to vote for Trump isn’t changing their minds. It’s everyone else I’m interested in, and for a lot of those people hopefully that ship has sailed.
Deadbeat Donald has already said he’ll still do the debates, post-pussy revelations. So I’d guess the odds are highly in favor of him going through with it, at present.
@MattF: Won’t matter after the debate, he’ll say it was rigged and refuse to do another.
@raven: We’re headinv home today after a weekend camping in the pathof Matthew on the Eastern Shore I”ve been lisfening to the rain on our trailer for about 15 hours now. Forrcast was for 4 onches overnight.
@OzarkHillbilly: I think it would be awesome if Bill took up the White House gardening. How many of us remember the old retired guys in our neighborhoods that we’d see out in their gardens as we came home from school? He’d be the new Mr. Greenjeans.
Short history of White House gardens (as opposed to general landscaping).
J. Q. Adams expanded upon and formalized flower gardens which his father had initiated.
Andrew Jackson created an orangery (tropical fruit trees and flowers), later expanded into a greenhouse by Fillmore, said greenhouse demolished only a few years later and a new one set up elsewhere on the grounds. That new greenhouse was demolished just after the turn of the 20th century when the new West Wing expansion was constructed.
Not long after the Civil War, the West Wing conservatory burned and was rebuilt, then expanded into a larger garden structure a decade or so later. The various conservatories which had been built in the latter half of the 19th century were either removed or repurposed when the West Wing expansion took place.
Wilson’s first wife created the original Rose Garden.
Incidentally, White House was not the formal name of the building (rather it was a common nickname) until T. Roosevelt made it so in 1901.
@Raven: I read the Truckers article BTW and was quite impressed. Especially since I already liked their music.
The comments with the article are atrocious. The usual “deplorable” dogs breakfast of racist insults and re-circulated conspiracy talk – why am I not surprised? Thanks, talk radio and Fixed News for using the last 30 years to make our political conversation so meaningful!
@JGabriel: There’s an added factor– I have a suspicion that Trump is somewhat phobic about being in physical proximity to Hillz. I have no idea what’s going to happen, but it may be weird and sick, IMO.
If only. It doesn’t matter how “permanent” they’ve made the garden, it can be removed. Removal would be a huge symbolic gesture for the next GOP occupant which would symbolize the sweeping away of what they’ll always see as their huge national nightmare.
Gin & Tonic
@MattF: There are probably a half-dozen orchards in a five-mile radius of my house, so I am spoiled with apples (and unpasteurized cider!) but have always loved, and still love, Macouns. Don’t need no stinkin’ new-fangled cultivars.
There’s a subset of racists who have an obsession with Michelle Obama. They barely mention the President but they can foam at the mouth over Michelle. It’s weird and scary in real life, the combo of racism and sexism. Intense.
@debbie: Like Reagan and the solar panels.
My dad didn’t live long enough to retire, but he was always gardening after dinner and on weekends. I think he used it as relaxation therapy more than anything else.
@Kay: What I always found weird was the Valerie Jarrett obsession.
@Poopyman: Wow. Mr Greenjeans, that is a blast from the past. :-)
If only they were affordable! Honeycrips are triple the price of other apples here. They’re like the Epi-pens of the produce section.
@Kay: Let me guess: They’re all white men with tiny hands.
Speaking of emails, a FB friend reminds me that the Bush administration had their own problems with emails. AG Gonzales even acknowledged that the emails were housed on RNC servers and that 22,000 were erased.
Everyone brings up Powell’s misuse of secure emails, but this seems more relevant and more critical.
I didn’t know there was one. I have to admit, I’m not particularly fond of her. I just thought she was a poor surrogate- that there are much better surrogates. I was watching some pundit show early in Obama’s Presidency and she said they would “speak truth to power” to someone or other, I don’t remember who.
He’s the President of the United States. He is power.
I didn’t like Robert Gibbs either. I thought the war with FOX news was a stupid distraction that looked insular. He seemed petty to me and also ineffective. I can’t stand that snarkiness he has. Just play straight. We all know how clever you are.
The Notorious RBG is on CBS Sunday Morning. They’re interviewing her and touring her house. She’s sharing photos and memories.
Replaced with a golf course and wet bar.
I think Rove was also using RNC servers when he was working in the West Wing and all of those emails were never made available to the public. Then I think there were shenanigans with Cheney and the energy task force notes which were never made public but I don’t know that emails and servers were part of that problem.
Nice. He’s out w/out PA.
I would just like to mention again that political media’s attention to 3rd Party candidates is (basically) not justified at this point. They have focused on Johnson in a way that is not borne out by his poll numbers and past elections.
Johnson polled at 5% the day Obama was re-elected. I know they all fucking hate Hillary Clinton and they are wedded to the idea that everyone else hates her too, but pretending there’s some “Johnson” constituency that is really stand out this election is mostly bullshit.
emmessem, in bringing back the horse-race narrative, will be itching to paint the punk as the comeback kid, if he doesn’t blow up tonight.
I wonder what will the ‘unendorsers’ would do then? unendorse their unendorsement ?
I think this is why Johnson has been so horribly unprepared (“What is… Aleppo?” “I don’t have any favorite foreign leaders” etc.) because he honestly didn’t expect to be invited to sit at the adult tables on network and cable TV. Why all the sudden interest in the third party? Cough! Ahem, because a Clinton is running?
He’s 70 years old, he spent all of yesterday in crisis and he doesn’t prepare. He should thank his lucky stars it’s a town hall because she would finish him off head to head.
His shot is “stupid town hall” and since most of them are stupid he has a shot. I’m not even sure about that. He likes rallies where he stands up there and free-associates with lies. There’s no real interaction with voters. It’s all one-way. He spouts bullshit and they cheer.
@Baud: The Valerie Jarred obsession is beyond weird. She’s so mild mannered it’s strange that she generated that level of hatred and conspiracies. I just don’t get it. Like, why pick her to obsess over? If they were looking for a black woman to hate why not Lisa Jackson or Susan Rice?
@germy: A YOOOOOOGE golf course! The CLASSIEST! The golf balls will be solid IVORY! The wet bar will be CHROME** covered in GOLD GILT! serving only the HIGHEST PRICED whiskeys and vodkas fermented in GOLDEN VATS!!!!
** just for @Immanentize:
@OzarkHillbilly: Mr. Green Jeans was one interesting dude. Hugh Brannum
@Gin & Tonic: Rubinette is hardly new — but it’s new to me. My personal favorite.
It was justified early on- I’m willing to be persuaded there’s a third party rush- but a 3rd party running at 5, 6 or 7 in polls is just not unusual. Johnson polled at 5 in ’12 and he got 1%.
There are special rules for each and every aspect of Hillary Clinton’s campaign. They hate her.
@Anya: Just because Jarrett is unlikely to fight back.
That’s what I’ve been wondering… They’re holding a town hall debate in a red district. What sort of questions are they expecting?
@Kay: I bet anderson cooper will bring up his usual why do voters don’t trust you question tonight in some form or other.
They’re either questions that have already been litigated to death (because we all have to wait for the undecideds to get up to speed) or too specific (‘my insurance premium”) or overly broad (“what will you do about the economy?”).
There should be a moderator- “bad question, sit down, next please”
@germy: Because of the expected mass defections from (mostly) the GOP. Never happened but they won’t let go of that narrative so easily.
The audience was selected by Gallup and is supposed to be comprised of absolutely undecided voters. Questions are not exactly random, they’re screened to provide wider range of topics.
@germy: It’s St Louis. It doesn’t get any bluer than that. They will have to work extra hard rigging the audience to get a left/right balance.
Most apples can be grown in most places in the U.S., so you might plant a tree for yourself.
I see “Your a rapist” trending on twitter. Apparently, Bill Clinton was heckled yesterday at a campaign rally in Milwaukee. I don’t know much about Juanita Broaddrick but the wingers are using her against Bill Clinton. And I am afraid the media might bring her up to do their usual “both sides” reporting.
@Anya: Susan Rice has been subject to a considerable amount of derision. Remember she was supposed to be the next secretary of state before McCain and Graham decided she was to blame, in part, for benghazi.
@Anya: That was always going to happen.
@amk: I am more worried about Martha Raddatz. All of her questions are based on GOP talking points. Besides, Andreson Cooper seems like a decent guy, I think he’s offended by Trump, while Ms Raddatz was fangirling over him until very recently (took a selfie with him).
I didn’t know that. I’m not familiar with that region. I’d read a comment on LGM about the specific town in St. Louis the debate is being held in, that it leans republican. Again, I’m not familiar with that region.
ay-men. The folks who freak out about “meatless Mondays” (whether in the schools or in the military) are pretty shameless & stupid, too.
@Hal: But that was a specific issue. They wanted to damage the Obama admin on Benghazi so they used her. Their obsession with Jarred is just very strange.
@Jeffro: I remember the idiots on my local news outlets insisted on running story after story about kids hating the healthy food and dumping it in the garbage. Footage of kids dumping apples and other fruit into the trash.
I’m sure it didn’t happen as often as they tried to report, because it was always the same stupid footage looped and re-looped.
Because – believe me, I’ve heard this directly from family – she supposedly pulls Obama’s puppet strings AND hates white people, in addition to being an Alinsky-ite. I’m like, riiiiiiight… Anyway, it fits will all of their conspiracy theories about Obama and only coincidentally centers around a powerful African American female.
I lack only a yard.
@debbie: Thats a great line, and Im stealing it.
@Anya: teann showed that clip today under shouty “bill clinton heckled” headline. It was just one nut and Bill handled it with his usual charm – cut some slack for that guy, they had a bad night yesterday – and the crowd laughed. It was all over in under a minute. Not a bfd despite teann’s pathetic effort
Yup! And so the implied ‘solution’ on the Right is…what…let’s go back to feeding kids crap and calling ketchup a vegetable? O-kay…
Unless the GOP fever breaks post-election (not holding my breath) President HRC would just do better to propose opposites to whatever it is she wants in a given week. Want kids to eat healthier school lunches? Propose they eat straight lard. The Trumpkins will be demanding fresh steamed broccoli at every meal. Cleek’s Law, nothing new.
I love Obama, but Hillary will not be skittish about advising Americans not to drink drano. #ImWithHer
“The vast right-wing conspiracy says there is no harm in drinking drano, but I disagree and strongly advise against it.”
Some of them did dump it, but some of them always dump the things they don’t like. That doesn’t mean you give them a diet composed entirely of fat, breading and salt. Food processors who target advertising directly to poor children shouldn’t be running public school food programs. We’re allowed to use common sense when making policy instead of some abstract notion of “freedom”. They eat plenty of garbage outside of school. It’s like saying that if we make them read poetry in school we’re banning the “memes” they read incessantly on the internet. We’re allowed to give them higher standards to shoot for.
They haven’t endorsed a Democrat for president since Woodrow Wilson in 1916.
Don’t miss their total slam on donnie dick.
As usual with conservatives, the “freedom!” didn’t work both ways. If 50% of kids are relying on free student lunches and all we offer them is garbage, then some portion of those kids have no choice but to eat garbage.
There’s no “freedom” in that at all. It’s letting the worst parents control the menu for everyone.
@germy: Wash U is right at the intersection of STL, Clayton, and University City. It is within the city limits of U City, which is largely well to do but very liberal and diverse. WU borders on Clayton which is the STL county seat and very well to do and conservative (I have always assumed it was very Republican) but the county Chief executive has been a Dem for decades now. STL city itself….. There has not been an elected Republican in STL since the Romans were running Jerusalem.
Seeing as it’s Misery I guess they felt the need to say it leans Republican
PS I was being hyperbolic when I said they would have to work extra hard at audience balance, but left on it’s own I suspect a lefty lean would be unavoidable.
WHAT?!?! You got no rain out of Matty? There are some folks to your North you wish they could say that.
Good luck with the parade.
Well, a female groper would be die Groperin. Just like Gerhard Schröder was der Bundeskanzler, but Angela Merkel is die Bundeskänzlerin. Should she win, Hillary will be die Präsidentin der Vereinigten Staaten. German, for some reason, still insists on these gender distinctions which you don’t see in English.
And that’s enough pedantry out of me.
@germy: I have to wonder what kind of parent would ever be okay with their kid dumping perfectly good food in the trash. If it were my kid, I’d go absolutely apeshit. And yet the people who hate FLOTUS cheer.
Edited for lack of coffee.
At least, the print media seems to be doing its job, unlike the teevee morons.
OT, but the rescue group I’m affiliated with has an opportunity to get a mega-donation of cat food and litter for the foster kittens and cats in our care, but we need to pay for freight shipping. It’s not a huge number, but we’re low on funds due to unprecedented demand for spay neuter assistance we fulfilled in the last few months, so if anyone can spare a few dollars, here’s the link.
If they were the mealy, card board flavored red delicious I don’t blame them. Even as a kid I refused to eat that crap.
Iowa Old Lady
@JMG: At this point, how can there possibly be a room full of voters who know enough to ask questions about policy but are undecided?
The kind of parent who reckons they got on fine in their day without all this fancy “healthy” food, so who is this Obama woman to tell their kids to eat fruit and veggies?
Surgery is scheduled for this morning. After that, it’s question how much of the first week I spend here and how much at home.
More later after I get some sleep.
@OzarkHillbilly: That is why I pay extra for Pink Lady and Gala and Honeycrisp. Yes, the mealy apples are cheaper, but they are also inedible.
Good Ezra Klein article about Trump’s ‘permission structure’ crumbling and why that’s a big deal.
@Raven: Great read! Thanks. And just posted it to InYourFacebook!
@Iowa Old Lady: I don’t know, but that’s what they say the audience will be.
fwiw, drew linzer/dkos upped her chances to 93% today, her highest ever.
frankly, I do not know how they do it on almost daily basis without any polls.
@WereBear: There’s a new-ish one called SweeTango that I just love. It has a little more tart than Honeycrisp but the same crispy texture. I could live off them.
If there are more Trump tapes similar or worse than the one with Billy Bush, I just hope the next one is with Tom Brady. And it’s way worse than the current one. I despise that piece of shit.
They were acting like kale is exotic. They were also being deliberately stupid, because the idea is a dark green vegetable. I got impatient with them because they are fully aware they can substitute but they had to act as if she was micro-managing.
They know what spinach is. They’re familiar with squash. Again, the only reason this was unbearable to them was Michelle Obama. If they want to feed their own kids crap they have 18 hours a day to do that. I don’t know why I have to lower my standards to meet theirs.
Our kids complained for a while and then they ate most of it, which kids will do if they’re permitted to actually become hungry between meals.
Yeah, that sounds suspicious. I trust Nate Silver’s analysis more…
Most of the time the parents would have no idea as to whether their children ate/threw out their food – they aren’t at school to see it. After having a child I became very wary of criticizing a parent for their child’s behavior – children in a school/social environment are very driven by peer pressure.
The NYTimes article is pretty interesting. I love St. Paul & the Broken Bones.
Speaking of getting no response. I left you a comment last night chiding you about your Illini vs my Boilermakers. I don’t subscribe to BTN so did not see the game. But it sounds like it was a good one.
deadbeat got his phone back and is inciting his base against “So many self-righteous hypocrites”.
Giuliani at a loss for words on MTP.
@debit: I will be on the lookout for that one.
I used to be a Granny Smith fan, but they aren’t nearly as good as they used to be. And lately, so many of them are brown on the inside, which gives me a real creepy vibe.
@debbie: Also Romney. His administration was legally obligated to preserve official communications and data. When the next administration came in, they were informed that Romney’s people had taken hard drives and wiped the server clean.
Hah! Oh, ye of little faith…
We’re personally contacting each voter and just really haranguing and shaming them, as is our local custom :)
@workworkwork: good luck
@workworkwork: Good Luck! And speedy recovery!
This is actually to be expected. The polling on 3rd party candidates conflates a number of things:
a) people who are really die-hard third party supporters (not many of them)
b) people who always end up voting for the Dem/GOP in the end, but don’t like it, and want to assert their independence wherever possible right up until casting the ballot
c) people who don’t end up voting, but have an opinion that neither of the big two party candidates should win. or don’t really care but have a personal distaste for both of them.
A huge chunk of those polled who give third party responses likely end up in categories b and c. Which is why third party candidates always poll higher than their vote tallies end up. A serious GOTV effort from a third party could turn some of those folks into third party voters, but third parties don’t really put up serious GOTV efforts (which would be wasted anyway unless they were running local candidates as well).
I was thinking earlier this month that Johnson might triple his support from ’12 by being a safe habor for Republicans looking to cast a protest vote. But between Trump’s ability to look worse by the week and Johnson flailing to answer basic questions AND Bill Weld basically deciding that the threat of Trump is too serious to mess around with third party shennanigans this cycle, I wonder if he’ll manage to do better than that 1% from ’12.
@Immanentize: Il Cenacolo, in Newburgh?
I hear you. My perspective starts from a period in my childhood when we were pretty poor. Food was not something you wasted, ever. As an adult, there was a time when I struggled to feed my own kids after my ex took off with all the money in our bank account and left me with a mortgage, all the unpaid bills and two kids. I went without to make sure they didn’t. I also realize my experience does not reflect everyone’s. And I should have clarified, I’m speaking of the parents who applauded their kids who tossed the food just because of politics.
@WereBear: Growing up I always went for Jonathons, crisp and tart, full of flavor, but these days they’ve gone mealy too. Now I eat Granny Smiths and, when I buy them for the wife, Honeycrisps.
Ceci n'est pas mon nym
By making shit up, er I mean by making rational assumptions in their simulation models.
I do modeling and simulation for a living (involving the laws of physics, not humans, so slightly more predictable). I know that you have to make assumptions about stuff which is unknowable. But to treat those assumptions like science… I’m a little weary of treating these kind of predictions like they have any accuracy.
I think the main assumptions go into the “likely voter models”, and it’s basically “unskewing the polls”, but trying to do so on a reasonable basis other than wishful wingnut thinking. It’s taking how polls tells us different groups break down for the different candidates, and then having some model about what numbers of those groups will actually vote. Perhaps other things will also be taken into account in different models, like what fraction might change their mind (if I were pulling that model out of my anatomy, it would be some fraction that decreased with time according to a formula which I also pulled out of my anatomy but which had input parameters I could play with), to what extent voter suppression will come into play, Russian hacking of the vote counting, etc.
The DailyKOS predictions come from Drew Linzer, who is arguably even better than Nate Silver based on past performance. That said, it’s piss poor that DailyKOS present his predictions without providing any explanation of how they are reached.
Nate Silver is far more cautious in predicting the effects of the p***y video, but provides an excellent explanation of his thinking:
There’s a little yellow local apple that I love. People give me bags of them because they’re so common out in the country they just fall and rot. It has a wild-ish taste, like it isn’t far from however apples began.
@Ceci n’est pas mon nym: Right. All you get are numerical versions of your various assumption.
Sorry – I didn’t pick up on that – and I absolutely agree.
Gin & Tonic
Bob? Is that you?
Ceci n'est pas mon nym
@OzarkHillbilly: There was a local apple where I grew up called the Cortland. Not many people grow it outside of the Central New York region, but it showed up in the local produce bins last week in one of our grocery stores (in PA) and we were very happy campers all week.
As for throwing apples in the trash: I suspect school-lunch apples are not going to be your highest quality apples. If I order a meal at a Panera, say, where an apple is offered as an optional side item, I’ll take it. But at least the time I throw out all of it or a big portion of it due to inedibility. And I love apples.
Such a coward. Sends the hired help out to handle the biggest crisis of his candidacy.
Hey, cretin- this is the point where you’re supposed to personally appear and defend yourself. That’s how it’s done in grown up world.
@Amir Khalid: No, more would be fine. My great-grandmother (immigrant from Alsace-Lorraine) would like to know that I picked up something about her native tongue, my ancestral tongue, from someplace, seeing as how I remember dang little of it from her during my tot-hood.
@Kay: Someone I canvased with in Cuyahoga County (2012) told me that folks he talked to seem more motivated than in 2012. He said the average Dem voter, in mostly AA neighborhood, are angry and personally offended by Donald Trump’s candidacy. He also said that most are afraid of election shenanigans so they’re voting early. I think the media has spent so much time obsessing over angry Trump voters they’ve erased Clinton voters, specially POC. I am hoping for a big surprise.
@Kay: yeah, you should have seen him just last week defending Ms Machado so vigorously.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Raven: I’ve been hoping to talk to you about the new record and Patterson’s proclamation the the Orange Groper doesn’t speak for him. I just never saw it come up or mentioned it myself.
Trump gonna burn it all down. I hope the party is run through the wood chipper by this petty, conniving, horrible human.
He has Zero loyalty to them or their party. He will lose in November, but if he can destroy Paul Ryan, he will actually look sort of like a winner. Paging Orville Redenbacher!
@srv: Putin’s puppet might be crazy, but Putin is not. NATO is still around.
@Anya: The Trump people who talk to me were bringing her up yesterday so i was reading her Wikipedia page and correcting typos. She accused Bill of rape. She told him that she was a married woman. She didn’t disclose the incident to her husband. She told some other dude that she married two years later. The people who corroborated her story were her second husband, her roommate at a conference, and some people who had an axe to grind with Clinton. The World News Daily published her book on the whole matter. During the Paula Jones case, she denied her own story in an affidavit then later withdrew the affidavit. The whole thing is very weird.
Basically, the people who love Trump think Snopes, all major media, etc. have a liberal bias and are perfectly happy with all the right wing sources.
It’s lying to you. Wild apples are almost inedible. Their reproductive trick is to be so awful that nothing eats them until the depths of midwinter when animals are starving and ranging long distances in search of food (thereby spreading the apple seeds far and wide). The ones we eat are cloned genetic freaks.
@Ceci n’est pas mon nym: I’ve actually heard of Cortlands. I’ll have to keep an eye out for them.
That’s guaranteed. Red Delicious is a marketing execs idea of what every American wants in an apple, therefor horrible.
@Anya: I think the media has spent so much time obsessing over angry Trump voters they’ve erased Clinton voters
I agree. There is less of a story hook to “voters who are typical dems will vote for dems” so the new, now, next way that news works means that angry Trump voters get the airtime and tweet time. But the Trump org has a total shit GOTV operation. Reince has basically said they are decoupling congressional races from the disaster train. HRC has a large and skilled GOTV operation.
We have work to do, but I think there are plenty of motivated Clinton voters. I don’t know that I’m completely typical, but I was cool to her run a year ago. Now I want her to mop the floor with him, then dump the mop in an incinerator, pour gas in it, and burn that shit-house DOWN.
Maybe so, except Trump is in crisis mode so it’s more far important that he says the right thing this evening than whether he appears on a Sunday talk show. Giuliani has been throwing out all kinds of different arguments this morning:
– Bill Clinton rapes women.
– The American people will forgive someone who has asked for forgiveness.
– It was just locker room talk from eleven years ago.
– The real issue is how Hillary Clinton treated the women who were victims of Bill Clinton.
I guess his minders are pondering which aproach he should use tonight, but it’s hard to see how Trump won’t end up making his situation far worse.
@satby: Send this to Anne Laurie so she front pages it, please.
Will you all worriers and concerners stop? Please?
This election is baked in the shell. Trump voters will not change their minds. Clinton voters won’t change theirs. “Undecideds” are mostly lying through their teeth. This is down to the ground game. Getting people to the polls and stopping the voting challenges are the most important things now.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@workworkwork: Wishing you an uneventful procedure and swift post-op healing.
@Mandalay: Those are crap talking points, but I’ve been seeing them dozens of times a day on social media. I guess there are still some morons around who will fall for that.
Sending all my healthiest wishes to you triple w.
I like honey crisps. I still love a good Cortland right off the tree. Now I think I’m going to have to go apple picking tomorrow.
I’m friends with a retired professor who has a former student studying old varieties of apples in northeast Georgia. He has been roaming around the once cultivated parts of nearby counties, finding remnants of old orchards, collecting samples and seeds, and has found an interesting variety. He’s hoping to publish in the next couple of years, and maybe bring some of these older varieties of apple back to the region.
My friend says what he’s been able to find is fascinating and far more than he had anticipated when first told about the project; they’ve been trying to trace who may have planted some of the trees, since that can give an idea of where the apple originated, though in this region, that typically means Virginia.
Same with Gala. Maybe they’re being overfertilized and rushed too much.
Did you see my post the other day about the 46 Clinton – 3 Trump yard sign count in my neighborhood? That would certainly cheer you, no?
With warm days, cool nights and rain the new crop of weeds are doing wonderfully well.
@Kay: I went to high school twenty years ago. The food was pure inedible garbage back then. I think the Obama initiatives are a huge step in the right direction but there are staffing and supply line issues at stake — quality food takes skilled labor to prepare.
Good news for Honeycrisp fanciers: a couple of weeks ago big bins of unwaxed honeycrisps (both from WA and CA) began to appear at the Berkeley Bowl super in CA @$1.59/lb–hope that portends price drop all over the country sooner rather than later.
@amk: regression in a time series
@Anya: why do you hate Tom Brady, specifically? It can’t be just cause he’s a wingnut.
@WereBear: they somehow managed to make Gala mealy somehow. I remember when red delicious weren’t mealy. I guess they don’t bruise as easily.
They used to serve us the most overcooked slop in school. That’s rural Southern cooking. Actually, it’s just plain old rural cooking as I’m used to it. Spinach was the worst, that always went in the trash. Steamed and soaked in vinegar. Yum
The Klein piece is quite good, but it underestimates the tenacity of Trump’s supporters, who absolutely refuse to abandon him.
JR in WV
I’ve been phone banking for Hillary, and we’re calling into Ohio from Charleston WV. I’ve made well over 200 calls myself in just the last 3 sessions. Response has been good, except for a couple people, one woman said “Who could vote for that bitch?!” and clicked off. You can’t slam a smart phone or flip phone like you could the old Ma Bell hardware.
The positive responses have been overwhelming, one guy in Toledo said he was a strong Hillary supporter, and when I asked my next question on my script, “Would you perhaps be interested in volunteering?” he told me that he would love to, but was working two jobs to keep afloat, and doing therapy for his drinking. A Cleveland area woman was delighted to be able to vote for a woman for the first time in her life, and when I asked her about volunteering, she said, ‘Honey, I wish I could, but I’m 91 and can barely get around anymore!”
So in Ohio, my experience is that most Democrats are strong for Hillary this year.
@Eric U.: It is weird: the Midwest grows all these amazing vegetables, and then they boil them to death.
One of my favorites — so much that I got a tree of them planted — is the Red Rome. It has a red flesh, and is very tart. It is ideal for baking. When you press it, the juice is bright pink and tastes like apple lemonade.
Go Michelle! I love and her garden so much.
In my garden, I actually managed to harvest several butternut squash this year!
This is the first time I’ve gotten any winter squash to actually produce. The zucchini of course always overrun us with fruit.
And a few final strawberries.
End of the year strawberries.
The strawberry bed is new this year and we’re quite looking forward to next summer.
@JR in WV:
. Good to hear, and interesting anecdote about how the Clinton campaign can target Ohio from another state.
@MattF: interesting! I have kind of a budding obsession with heirloom apples, particularly the tarter (read, bitter) varieties that were used for cider.
People have forgotten the true significance of Johnny Appleseed. He was sowing apple trees so the people could brew cider. Glad to see it making a comeback in this country, but until we start using the old varietals again, American cider is always going to taste too sweet (IMHO).
@WereBear: Except for Macintoshes. They can be pretty mealy, but I think them so yummy I don’t care.
@JR in WV: That’s encouraging. In my experience, they can have you only calling registered dems, or only likely voter registered dems, etc. Do you happen to know what groups of people they have you calling?
@tmflibrarian: Welcome to the wonderful world of apple obsession! In one of my next lives, I want to study botany and focus on heirloom apple varities. : )
Ah. Danke, I really was curious as to what the correct form would be and why, and now I get it – or at least I get it better than I did before.