May Day! May Day!
Trump backed Le Pen. She lost bigly. May reached out to Trump. She might lose her post. Reverse Midas!
Seriously, it’s probably got very little to do with the US. But it seems like the Bannonite vision is being roundly rejected lately, and that’s a good thing, wherever it happens.
clay
When do official results come in?
patroclus
Thank you for this thread!! The first results will come in in about 20 minutes – Sunderlund and its 3 Labour seats. But watch for the swing since 2015 – that is usually the key criterion.
Sinn Fein says no chance that they will take their seats. That gives the Tories a slight (3-4 seats) edge in potentially forming a coalition.
TenguPhule
Hoping for the best.
germy
London swings like a pendulum do.
lamh36
Been at work all day and so I’m trying to catch up on the Comey stuff, and all this other stuff. So I’m off to check the interwebs.
BTW, I’m beginning to think the difference between the political left and right is that the left likes to scream “nothing matters” and yet still try to motivate people to vote and call and whatever. the right on the other hand doesn’t tell their people “nothing matters” but do this anyway…they throw anything at the wall and pins problems on the left.
Have you ever tried to motivate people who feels that “nothing they do will matter anyway?” as opposed to people who feels backed in a corner and having a clear target?
germy
ruemara
I am so gonna go buy a few hundred in pounds.
@lamh36: Been thinking this for years. We demotivate then wonder why we keep losing.
chopper
no matter what, it looks like an epic fail for may. she’s not long for the leadership role.
David Anderson
@clay: Very slowly — should start seeing some seats called in the next hour or so, but then a trickle overnight with final results by first cup of coffee tomorrow
TenguPhule
@lamh36:
But we’re expected to have standards and moral decency.
jl
@ruemara: Might be a good move if you have some cash to spare for speculation.
Financial markets tend to over react.
But if not an over reaction, very good news for helping UK with Brexit.
Morzer
Well, if the results match the exit poll, that means that May has screwed up beyond belief and will have to go, the Tories have been broken by Europe, UKIP is dead, Brexit is up in the air and Jeremy Corbyn can return to being the most useless Leader of the Opposition in British history. The prospects for Britain are not v. good, to quote Bridget Jones. It’s clear that none of the parties command the confidence of the British nation and indeed there’s no reason why they should.
Mike in NC
Will the UN be called in to monitor the 2020 US elections?
patroclus
This could be the U.K.’s Independence from Brexit Day!! (Take that Nigel Farage!)
trollhattan
After Brexit and Trump have decided “wait & see” is the only thing to do in elections.
We were at a taping of “Wait Wait” the night of the Brexit vote and the result was announced mid-show and elicited actual American gasps from the audience. Also required Peter to re-record the show’s intro at the end to include the result, which was darned impressive.
Let’s go, Labour! (May is just insufferable.)
TenguPhule
@Morzer:
As a Lib Dem Supporter (UK political party for those not on inside baseball), do you like being shafted by your own party on written promises or do you just enjoy their political irrelevance?
Origuy
If the Tories cannot form a majority, will Labour and the SNP have enough to form a coalition? That seems like the next option.
Morzer
@patroclus:
But who can the Tories find as partners? The SNP would rather chew glass for breakfast, Labour’s out, UKIP’s irrelevant, the Lib Dems aren’t going to be eager to repeat their previous mistake (and are vehemently against Brexit). Not a lot of hope to be found in all of that for the Rusty Lady and her chums. Even if she could cobble something together, it’s clear that there are enough Remainer Tories to make her life a living hell every day of every week.
TenguPhule
@Origuy: Labor has said they won’t do an official coalition. They might do it on a vote by vote basis if the Tories can’t muster a coalition.
chopper
@TenguPhule:
gee, thanks, mister! none of us knew that fucking fact.
Splitting Image
Not a fan of Corbyn, but good luck to Labour. I won’t be sorry to see the last of Theresa May.
TenguPhule
@chopper:
Some people here didn’t the last time. Which was yesterday.
SatanicPanic
@lamh36: hmm, this is a good point. Maybe we need to reframe- morality doesn’t matter to Republicans, but it matters to us.
schrodingers_cat
@ruemara: Who is this “we”? The people who demotivate are the BS supporter types, if their vision of the leftist utopia is not realized they want to take their toys and go home. Perez making nice with the senator from Vt was a big mistake.
debbie
I’ve heard May will have to form a coalition. Quite a change from her belief she’d trounce Labor.
One good thing about the Brits is that they are holding their leadership accountable for the budget cuts to police. Clearly this is something that has affected publics safety. If only the GOP would take heed!
patroclus
@Morzer: Only the DUP and UUP seem possible. DUP should be around 10 and UUP probably just 1. But if it’s as close as projected – every single seat will matter. Theresa May said if she lost 6 seats, she’d resign. Hopefully, that’ll happen, but I think she needs to lose at least 20 for an alternative government to be formed. Go Lib Dems!! Kill Brexit!!
Morzer
@chopper:
It is indeed remarkable how someone who doesn’t understand the difference between the Lib Dems and UKIP is willing to offer patronizing “guidance” to the basics of British politics.
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
Unfortunately its too late to unshit that bed. May already set it into motion and burned enough bridges that there is no way the EU is going to stop it now.
Camembert
@lamh36:
Yep, that’s totally a completely reasonable way to characterize one’s allies.
SatanicPanic
@schrodingers_cat: this too.
schrodingers_cat
BTW does Andrew Sullivan have a sad?
SiubhanDuinne
When all night long a chap remains
On sentry-go, to chase monotony,
He exercises of his brains
(That is, assuming that he’s got any).
Though never nurtured in the lap
Of luxury, yet I admonish you —
I am an intellectual chap
And think of things that would astonish you:
I often think it comical
(Fal la lal, fal la lal)
How Nature always does contrive
(Fal la la lal)
That ever boy and every gal
That’s born into the world alive
Is either a little liberal,
Or else a little conservative.
Fal la lal, fal la lal,
Is either a little liberal,
Or else a little conservative.
Fal. La. Lal.
— W. S. Gilbert, of course
chopper
@Morzer:
plus what are the chances may has the political chops to make a coalition? she could fuck up a bread sandwich.
Elizabelle
@TenguPhule: Are you sure about that? Situation sounds kind of flexible to me, particularly if May gets the (semi-) boot.
It’s uncharted waters. Maybe the EU would prefer to throw them a paddle.
jl
Lib Dems so discredited themselves in their experiment with the Tories, they should market themselves accordingly.
Lib Dems: a great stocking-stuffer when you just need a scosh more seats to make the majority for fun post election party coalition.
germy
Has anyone else noticed a disturbance today in the RWNJ force?
An hour ago I saw a white pickup truck drive down our street and then do an awkward U-turn, backing into a side street. It’s a busy street, and it was some weird maneuver. I’ve never seen anyone attempt it; the roads are narrow here.
As the truck sped off, I saw a big TRUMP sign on the rear window.
They’re agitated today.
O. Felix Culpa
@lamh36: Wow. You make a really good, insightful point. The constant shrieking of “nothing matters, we’re all doomed” is incredibly demotivating. Leads to fearful hand-wringing. How much more helpful would it be if liberals/lefties articulated important common goals to rally around?
ETA: Sorry for bolding fail. Should have been *goals.* Blame it on the smarty pants phone.
Morzer
@patroclus:
I can’t see how a coalition reliant on Irish votes would last. Admittedly we still don’t know how reliable the exit polls are, but if they are close to the mark, May will fall and heaven only knows who will replace her as the leader of the Tories. I wonder whether we shall see a resurgence of the Cameron faction, possibly led by Osborne.
TenguPhule
@Morzer: Says the one who thinks that rejecting the referendum result was going to make the Lib-Dems popular.
germy
@schrodingers_cat:
One can hope.
patroclus
@TenguPhule: Not at all. May implemented “negotiations” that are set to start next week. A new government would mean a new negotiating team which would definitely favor continuing access to the single market, the customs union, labor mobility, human rights guarantees, no border restriction between Northern Ireland and Ireland, continued ag subsidies, London continuing as a major financial center and lots more. Do you follow this issue?
Bill E Pilgrim
This is great news for John McCain and President Comey.
Morzer
@schrodingers_cat:
Andrew Sullivan has been in mourning for Burkean conservatism since the time of the Norman Conquest, with a brief interlude of irrational Thatcherite exuberance.
TenguPhule
@Elizabelle:
Yes. They’d need all 27 to cooperate and there is no way all 27 do. Not after the shitshow the Tories and Ukip made of things.
Brachiator
I love it. Very droll.
Theresa May certainly gambled on this vote. Wow. One Twitter message noted:
jl
@O. Felix Culpa:
‘ What is best in life? ‘
‘Crushed by our enemies. See us driven before them. Hear the lamentations of our women.’
lamh36
Dude…the hearing started at like 10…old azz
https://twitter.com/TheAtlantic/status/872927963045662720
TenguPhule
@patroclus: I do. Corbyn committed to using the best team possible, but they’re still going to follow the democratic result. Which means they will Brexit, but hopefully as soft as possible. In name only would be the ideal.
Morzer
@SiubhanDuinne:
When you’re wounded and left on Brexitstan’s plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
And go to your gawd like a soldier…
Elizabelle
@O. Felix Culpa: Yeah. I stayed out of the thread before this one. The “We’re screwed and can’t do anything about it…” demotivating.
Personally, I don’t see Trump surviving his term. He is not a well man, physically or mentally. Who knows? I have no fucking patience with any fool who wants to suggest Trump will get a second term. Really? I mean, really?
patroclus
First result – Labour wins Newcastle with a swing in their direction!! Newcastle is where my ancestors are from and I root for them in the Premier League! This is great!
Bill E Pilgrim
Has anyone done a satire with lyrics by Gilbert and (Andrew) Sullivan?
I am the very model of a modern neoliberal
I’ve information vegetable, animal, and mineral
MisterForkbeard
@Morzer: First results (caught over at Atrios’ place in the comments) show that Labor is doing well over previous years but underperforming the exit polls. Caveats include that it’s also very early, single points of data are basically anecdotes, etc.
TenguPhule
@Bill E Pilgrim:
‘One of these is not like the others, One of these does not belong.’
debbie
@Elizabelle:
Neither Trump nor the GOP Congress will receive the glory they believe is due them. That will be fun to watch.
Tony J
If this exit poll is anything like accurate then Woah Nellie indeed.
1) May would be Dead Woman Walking. She broke her promise not to hold a snap election saying she wanted a landslide majority to solidify her authority going into Brexit negotiations. If she’s lost the Tory majority after leading by 20 or so points… Not exactly strong or stable.
2) Corbyn’s position as Labour Leader is solidified, to put it mildly. From where he started, with the Blairite rump and virtually all of the media totally against him, if he’s won seats from the Tories and prevented them getting an overall majority. Wow. Serious wow.
3) The possibility is that it could be worse than this for the Tories (it might not be, it could all be bollocks and the Tories actually get an 80 seat majority by the morning). Looking at the BBC projection showing seats they think Labour might have won if the exit poll is right they’re showing victories deep into the Blue majority with Labour winning seats they lost last time by, say, 8000 votes, while the Tories hold seats they only had a few hundred majority in. If Labour actually picks up – more – marginal seats than the exit poll is giving them… The Tories might drop under 300 seats. That would be a clusterfunk of massive scale.
All that said, I expected a Tory majority tonight and just hoped Labour managed to hold ground. I’m not banking on anything. Labour would need something like a 7% swing to do damage, while the two races that have been called have a pro-Labour swing of about 2%. We’ll just have to wait until the early hours when the marginal seats start reporting.
It’s nice so far though.
Peale
@patroclus: Hard to see how it could. If you were a strong “Remain”, and of those 48.1% Remainers, at least SOME of them had to have felt strongly about it, you probably just sat this one out, since both parties are pro-Brexit now.
Morzer
@patroclus:
https://t.co/GOmjaIllRk
Barbara
Guardian has a really good live results feed. First result was reported from Newcastle and showed 2% shift from Tories to Labour. May was apparently hoping to secure for conservatives their version of the Rust Belt WWC, a traditional Labour voting bloc that voted heavily in favor of Brexit. The 2% swing from T to L in one of those areas suggests that might not be in the cards.
patroclus
@TenguPhule: You can believe what you want, but if you think the SNP and the Lib Dems are going to go along with Brexit, you should study their positions a little more closely. Are you just going to call me a liar again?
Mike J
That graph of the pound is it plummeting from $1.29 to $1.27. Not really the pants-shitting panic people would lead you to believe.
SiubhanDuinne
@Brachiator:
And even at that, her tenure is considerably longer than that of Kim Campbell, Canada’s first, and so far only, female Prime Minister (25 June 1993-04 November 1993).
MisterForkbeard
@O. Felix Culpa: Can’t argue with this either.
It’s not that “Nothing matters”, it’s that this demonstrates exactly how awful Republicans are and why it’s important for us to do better. It should illustrate not that “this won’t ever happen” but “this won’t ever happen with republicans in charge“, and THAT is why it’s important to resist. To fix that lats clause so that Republicans aren’t in charge any more.
rikyrah
Thanks for the thread. I don’t know much about British politics, but I am reading with interest.
Major Major Major Major
@Peale: I would’ve been a strong remain and I would’ve held my nose and voted for Labour (“it’s important”).
Bill E Pilgrim
@TenguPhule: Second line is a boast in both cases, not a fact. Or not necessarily anyway.
Mnemosyne
@TenguPhule:
Uh, aren’t you an American who lives in Hawaii? Why do you care this deeply about Britain’s political parties?
Morzer
@Tony J:
What we don’t know is whether tactical voting against the Tories might have done more damage than people believe. If May does have to go, it’s true she screwed up BIGLY!, but it’s also true that this is a verdict on Cameronism and austerity. Cameron’s time in power created an immense popular anger and resentment against the damage done by foolish and cruel cuts to public services and welfare.
Iowa Old Lady
There appears to be a British reporter named Katty Kay. Maybe that’s a Gilbert and Sullivan parody.
patroclus
@Peale: Corbyn made some very equivocal statements during the campaign and if he is trying to form a coalition with the SNP and the Lib Dems (who are each very opposed), it’s hard to see him insisting on a hard Brexit when he doesn’t seem to really care about it in any event. It’s uncertain, at the least if the Tories lose their majority.
Peale
@Mike J: I’m so old that I remember when it was 2.00. Some on this board probably remember it at 4.5. Trump really needs to get after those Brits for currency manipulation.
mdblanche
@Morzer: Osborne’s just retired from Parliament, but you can be sure he’s giddy tonight over May’s humiliation.
@TenguPhule: For what it’s worth, the exit poll shows the Lib Dems doing better than expected (and the Scottish Nationalists worse).
Patricia Kayden
@clay: I’m watching the BBC World News channel and the results are coming in now.
Morzer
@Mnemosyne:
He doesn’t. He just likes to pretend that he’s edgy and woke by supporting Corbyn, about whose actual record, beliefs and politics he knows SFA.
Mnemosyne
@Camembert:
Shut up, troll.
different-church-lady
Gee, what a shame the anti-Bannon curve came too late for us.
ruemara
@schrodingers_cat: True. mea culpa.
chopper
@Mike J:
well, in a major currency an almost 2.5% drop that quick is actually pretty cray-cray.
Baud
Hung Parliament? Time for the Queen to rule from her Iron Throne!
different-church-lady
@Camembert: What allies?
Baud
@different-church-lady: I like to think we sacrificed ourselves as a warning to the rest of humanity.
Morzer
@MisterForkbeard:
That would be my suspicion, but it certainly looks like a bad night for Theresa May. Still, she can always self-deport and reduce the pressure on public services…
TenguPhule
@Mnemosyne:
Yes.
Because he caught my interest. Its been a personal hobby.
chopper
@Brachiator:
good ol’ bonar law. yup, that ol’ bonar law.
SiubhanDuinne
@Iowa Old Lady:
There is a British reporter named Katty Kay, but she’s female.
different-church-lady
@Baud: It worked for the Romans.
Mnemosyne
@Brachiator:
From what I’ve read, when a PM’s party loses Parliament, he or she is expected to vacate 10 Downing Street the very next day.
ruemara
@Mnemosyne: I do love the immediate move-out.
germy
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/08/general-election-results-2017-uk-live-labour-tories-corbyn-may-election-results-live-news-line
Peale
So if no one wants to go into coalition with either major party, do they have to have another Snap election until the voters make it clear?
mdblanche
@Brachiator: Law retired so quickly because he was dying…
Baud
@different-church-lady: People still talk about them.
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
And the alternative is to ignore what the voters decided. Which Corbyn is not going to do and he’s said as much..
You already know May’s position.
SNP & Lib Dems are minority parties with no hopes of forming a government. None.
different-church-lady
@Peale: 10 minute overtime, followed by a shoot-out.
Morzer
@Peale:
Traditionally, it’s settled over a pint and a game of darts down the pub. That’s how Boadicea came to power on her anti-Roman immigrant platform.
sm*t cl*de
@Tony J:
“Breaking my promise showed my guts and integrity and leadership. It proved I have the unbending resolution needed for Brexit negotiations.”
Shalimar
@TenguPhule: I think the problematic part was referring to party names as “inside baseball”. That isn’t something only people very familiar with the system know. You’re being patronizing because you understand what the pitcher does.
TenguPhule
@Morzer:
I love your sense of projection.
chopper
@Peale:
they can but i don’t think they have to.
Mnemosyne
@different-church-lady:
It sucks to have to be the bad example, but if it means saving the rest of the world from making the same mistake, I guess we’re stuck being the sacrificial lamb.
TenguPhule
@Shalimar:
No, I was including that note because someone confused the party with me talking about actual Lib Dems and suggested I take a hike to Redstate.
Baud
@Peale:
You ever wonder where the term Sudden Death comes from? It’s British in origin.
Shalimar
@TenguPhule: Labour appears to be a minority party with no hope of forming a government without both SNP and the Lib Dems. You expect them to join without getting anything in return?
Morzer
@different-church-lady:
Given the English soccer team’s record when it goes to penalties, that suggests that Nicola Sturgeon will triumph after May misses an open goal.
patroclus
@Peale: No. Not since the Fixed Term Parliament Act. The party with the largest number of seats gets first chance – they can try to govern with a minority (like in Canada) but they could be voted out on the Queen’s Speech (that open Parliament). if that is phrased as a “No Confidence” Motion, that could trigger a new election, but it also could trigger the 2nd largest party getting a shot if not so worded. Only a No Confidence motion passing or a 2/3rd’s vote can trigger a new election. More likely, it will be a minority government that won’t last long. It’s just too unclear at present to project what’s going to happen as we sit right now.
Tony J
@Morzer:
So far we know bugger all. Exit poll could be junk, that said…
If this does come to pass as the exit poll says, and it is an anti-austerity vote, then credit to Corbyn who based his campaign on opposing and promising to reverse austerity. Two years ago Milliband more or less chickened out of pushing that line and paid the price. We’ll just have to wait and see, won’t we?
lamh36
Soooo…lying Keebler Elf lied…AGAIN
different-church-lady
@TenguPhule: Illegitimi non carborundum.
Peale
@Morzer: But when she went to the continent with that mandate to negotiate Albionexit, they ate her lunch and she didn’t come back.
different-church-lady
@lamh36: They’ll probably find a few more if they check under the couch.
Shalimar
@TenguPhule: Then they were ignorant and deserved it. Still isn’t really inside baseball if anyone can google it in 5 seconds.
Omnes Omnibus
@TenguPhule: Comments about Lib Dems in a thread that is not explicitly about British politics can be seen as ambiguous. Comments about Lib Dems in a thread that is explicitly about British politics are a different matter.
MisterForkbeard
@lamh36: Oh Christ. Is this the Mayflower one that Franken was asking about earlier? If so, that’s super bad.
Morzer
@Shalimar:
Right. The SNP want to destroy Labour, not prop them up. They want to make Scottish politics into the big final battle between Good SNP and Evil Tories – at which point they think they can finally win a referendum on independence. They are probably wrong about that, because nothing will wreck them more than the fact that they are the governing party in Scotland and haven’t made much of a job of it.
sm*t cl*de
@Tony J:
At the very least, the whole thing shows a wholesale rejection from the UK electorate of the Two-Minute Hate advertorials from the Daily Heil and the Murdoch empire.
patroclus
@TenguPhule: The SNP and Lib Dems are essential elements in any coalition government led by Labour. There is no chance of Labour forming a majority without them. None. You should really study U.K. politics a little more closely and stop pretending that only you know everything.
Tony J
@Peale:
If no one can form a majority government, or at least get a majority of MPs to back them forming a Government, yeah, there will have to be another election eventually.
chopper
@patroclus:
FFS, only the people who came up with the rules for cricket could come up with something like this.
Morzer
@lamh36:
At this point, Trump should just make Sessions the official Trump Confederate States’ ambassador to Putin and be done with it.
TenguPhule
@Shalimar:
Labor can’t officially ally with the SNP. It would hurt their voting base in England proper. The best they can hope for is shared votes.
The Lib Dems aren’t going to get anything as major as a revote on Brexit, even if Labor was willing to accept them in coalition. Corbyn can’t allow it because it would risk his own labor base splitting and it would fly in the face of everything he’s said on respecting the democratic vote.
So it doesn’t matter what the SNP or Lib-Dems want about stopping Brexit.
Morzer
Off-topic, but worth flagging for attention from the front-pagers:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/08/minimum-wage-affordable-housing-rentals-study
Tony J
@sm*t cl*de:
May couldn’t speak a sentence that long without chanting Strong and Stable at least four times. Its what she’s programmed to do.
Shalimar
@lamh36: That framing doesn’t make sense to me. They’re talking about the meeting in April 2016 after Trump’s first foreign policy speech, where Manafort, Trump, Kushner and Flynn apparently set up the deal with Kislyak for part of Rosneft and help with the election in exchange for dropping sanctions to allow the oil pipeline. If Sessions was there too, then he is guilty of treason too, but that meeting is a huge deal even if Sessions didn’t stay after the party to attend. “Sessions may have met 3rd time with Kislyak” seriously understates all of what allegedly happened.
TenguPhule
@patroclus: Corbyn would lose his base in a Labor split if the democratic vote on Brexit is overturned. A third of Labor voted Brexit and he literally can’t afford to lose those voters or the remain voters who think democracy is democracy even if it has stupid results.
Peale
I guess Belgium made it through just fine without a government for, what, 2 years?
patroclus
@chopper: Indeed. Hung Parliaments can be a bit of a sticky wicket. It usually means a short Parliament and an early election because the coalition parties invariably get into arguments.
jl
@lamh36:
” Soooo…lying Keebler Elf lied…AGAIN ”
Comey is just verifying previous reports. Probably a meeting at at Mayflower hotel after a conference. Somebody knew there was a meeting that Sessions had with Russian ambassador, and looks like exactly what they talked about, and informed the US federal fuzz (which is why Comey had to wait until closed hearing to discuss).
Sessions is in deep shit. Should be a public push to eject his dishonest corrupt ass from AG. Probably Trumpster’s knowledge this info would come out soon had more to do with apparent push to dump him, than one of their reality show Kabuki theatre feuds.
different-church-lady
@Morzer: [derp-font] That’s why we have FEMA camps! [/derp-font]
SiubhanDuinne
@chopper:
Yup. Rules of Cricket:
Shalimar
@TenguPhule: You could have just said “Corbyn wants Brexit, he isn’t going to compromise on it.” That is what it boils down to.
BBA
@Peale: In such an instance the Queen will step in and stare disapprovingly at Parliament until they get their shit together.
lamh36
Sooo…I’m guessing May will tell Trump co to stay FAR AWAY from UK for a bit…
Jeffro
@different-church-lady: win
@Morzer: WIN
Betty Cracker
@lamh36: I think you mean KKKeebler Elf. ?
JMG
May will get her majority. Not even Labour MPs (albeit many of them hate Corbyn) believe the exit poll. They’re texting to that effect.
Major Major Major Major
@Betty Cracker: Oh very nice, is that an original?
TenguPhule
@Shalimar:
But that would be a lie.
He doesn’t want it, he campaigned and delivered remain.
But the Tories made this shit sandwich, He’s just the poor sod who probably gets to eat it.
sm*t cl*de
@Tony J:
Guardian columnists have had a lot of fun over the last week or so, each time the May-bot’s programming breaks down.
Her strategy was to re-brand herself as the reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher, in the hope that the “Strong and Stable” incantation would obscure her actual record of opportunism and spineless, principle-free mithering. She should probably have wondered whether voters actually want another Thatcher.
Omnes Omnibus
@TenguPhule: Losing Brexit as a price of ending austerity? Are you sure that Labour wouldn’t go for it?
Bumper
@trollhattan: i was at that taping too!
chopper
@patroclus:
i’m just happy that for the first time in a while i, an american, get to make fun of some other country’s electoral mess.
TenguPhule
@SiubhanDuinne: Cricket is not a game. It’s an exercise in frustration.
Tony J
@sm*t cl*de:
I’m not banking on it. The grip of the Murdoch\Mail\Express media on a razor thin majority of the British electorate is strong indeed. We don’t have Fox, but we do have a less organised and flashy equivalent.
I’m still expecting the Tories to get a majority. I hope I’m wrong.
Baud
??????
geg6
My relatives in England are nominally Tories but were anti-Brexit. Wonder which way they went? I know that a hung Parliament will trigger all kinds of uncertainty and the rules are pretty typically British arcane when it comes to when a new election can be and will be called. But if any of the exit polls are close to right, May is toast. What an idiot she was to pull this stunt.
jl
@Shalimar: Well, I’ve read that the third meeting may not have been the one speculated to have occurred at the Mayflower hotel after the conference. Which would make Sessions an even bigger liar, since he could plausibly brush off one at the Mayflower as inconsequential chance and brief encounter.
So, ‘The Third Meet’ What was it? Need a Harry Lime script and some cool zither music. Orson could have done it up right. But not starring as Sessions, unless he would be willing to shed some weight.
lamh36
sm*t cl*de
@patroclus:
Who’s at silly mid-on?
Betty Cracker
@Major Major Major Major: I may have seen it elsewhere, honestly not sure, but if the hood fits…
chopper
@sm*t cl*de:
may’s campaign was a real dibbly-dobbly.
SiubhanDuinne
@Peale:
I think you should use the full term, PerfidiousAlbionexit, for the sake of those who don’t understand inside cricket.
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus:
Yes. The problem is that the Labor party itself isn’t of one mind on this and they can’t afford to lose those voters to the Tories or Ukip, which is predicted to happen if they try a Remain play.
Elizabelle
From time.com: UK dogs at polling places.
Even a rescue chicken, and a turtle, accompanied to the polls.
Cats, meanwhile, stayed home and mailed it in.
patroclus
@Shalimar: Corbyn won’t get a majority if he is unwilling to compromise on the SNP’s and the Lib Dems’ signature issue. He was quite equivocal both in the referendum campaign (when he was supposedly against Brexit) and in this general election (when he was supposedly for it). Brexit is the issue he is most likely to compromise on – he is much more likely to be firm about items in the Labour manifesto such as the spending commitments. But all that is in the iffy stage just now – we don’t even know the election results as yet TenguPhule is SO certain when the outcome is very uncertain.
Major Major Major Major
@TenguPhule:
The first, which is questionable, is at any rate not required for the second, which is true.
SiubhanDuinne
@sm*t cl*de:
Maiden over!
Shalimar
@TenguPhule: Bullshit. Corbyn has been for Brexit forever. He “led” the disastrous and ineffective campaign for remain, and rather than re-fight that and possibly win this time, he capitulated on the issue for the current election and kept it off the table. Corbyn is better than the Blairites on almost every issue, but the one thing he has always been is anti-Europe.
lamh36
BBA
I predict either a Tory majority government or a Tory-DUP coalition. They will have a razor-thin margin and will rush through school privatization and welfare abolition in the first week.
SiubhanDuinne
@Elizabelle:
So like them.
sm*t cl*de
@lamh36:
Trump seems to have set his heart on his triumphant ride through the streets of London in Betty’s best gilded coach. It will keep his minders busy, reassuring him that the upraised fingers from the crowd are a traditional English gesture of good-will.
Betty Cracker
@lamh36: Oooo, this could get good! I have a feeling that wormy little bastard is ass-deep in Russian mobsters. If corruption brings these pricks down instead of high crimes and misdemeanors, I’m okay with that.
Baud
@lamh36: Heh.
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus: I am dutifully chastasized and apologize to anyone I may have offended with my ill worded comment.
SatanicPanic
@lamh36: That guy is the worst of the admin, if he gets thrown out I am going to have a party.
germy
@Betty Cracker:
Robert Sneddon
@Mnemosyne:
Not exactly. A candidate for Prime Minister, by tradition (and a lot of British constitutional goings-on are tradition and good ideas flying in close formation, not written down by slaveholders 200 years and more in their grave) is someone who has the confidence of Parliament and can deliver votes for major legislation as well as passing Budgets. Usually the leader of the largest party after an election gets first crack at the post but in the case where they don’t have a majority then they can try and scrabble together a coalition that will give them the right to call on Liz at Buck House and get the rubber-stamp to become or carry on as PM.
There’s a step below official coalition, a “confidence and supply” agreement that says the PM will not face votes of no-confidence from allied parties and they will get spending and Budget bills through (these are usually non-political in the UK). Everything else, including manifesto pledges is dealt with case-by-case.
If they can’t get even C&S then the horse-trading intensifies and the second-place winner gets a chance to try and reach the magical 326 votes — this would be Labour with the LibDems and SNP in this case. The quid quo pros would be interesting though. The Damocles option is a PM with a minority government but they don’t last and the followup election usually boots them out.
Theresa May is going to resign, much as David Cameron did after the Brexit referendum result. She fucked up by calling this election and failed to deliver an improved majority as she intended and failure is not an option in British politics. Jeremy Corbyn is safe as Labour leader now but expect a few of the Parliamentary Labour Party right-wingers to decide they want to spend more time with their families/bank accounts even if they get re-elected tonight.
Gravenstone
@Mnemosyne: Jumping on the grenade is so American.
Tony J
@sm*t cl*de:
If May had been able to pull off the New Thatcher theme she was going for with the initial Tory campaign then I think she would have increased her majority. The media were pushing that narrative hard. It was supposed to be 1983 all over again with Corbyn playing the role of Michael Foot and May stamping her heel on the neck of Leftism for good.
But she couldn’t do it, because she’s a bland, robotic bureaucrat playing Maggie dress-up, and it showed.
TenguPhule
@Shalimar:
Extensive rallying which delivered a solid Labor majority vote in favor of remain. Compared to jackshit by the other leading lights.
And got exactly ZERO credit or positive media exposure for his efforts.
His own “7/10 support” was that he thought being in the EU was not 100% awesome, but that it was something that could be improved upon.
ETA: What more did you want him to do? Lie?
sm*t cl*de
@Elizabelle:
“We would totally have voted on an election of such crucial importance, if only you’d trust us with Internet access so we don’t have to move from the sunny spot.” — The cats.
trollhattan
@Bumper:
[Waves at Bumper, a year late]
It was a bucket list item for my kid and we made it a Portland adventure. Had so much fun at the Thorns game we attended we’re back up in July for another. They’re basically our NWSL home team, if a state removed.
MoxieM
Watching the Beeb now. “Anxiety, I wouldn’t put it any stronger than that, among the Conservative Party.” Well, they are British! As if that comment weren’t irrelevant enough, the pic currently running on the front page of the BBC News page shows Teresa May, and I assume, Mr. May. He’s a ringer for Wallace of Wallace & Grommit fame. More’s the pity.
germy
@MoxieM: R.I.P.
patroclus
Armed police arrive outside Jeremy Corbyn’s residence. The top trending question in the U.K. is “Why did Theresa May call an election?” This reminds me of 1923, when Stanley Baldwin called a stupid election on implementing tariffs and let in the first-ever Labour minority government. That was a blunder, but in 11 months, they threw Labour out and got a huge majority.
Major Major Major Major
@TenguPhule: Might I ask why you seem to insist on spelling Labour without a ‘u’?
ByRookorbyCrook
@sm*t cl*de:
No, Mr. Trump they are not showing you a V for Victory. Have you ever heard of Agincourt? No. Nevermind then, go with them flipping you a V.
TenguPhule
@Major Major Major Major: Auto-correct is being annoying.
Major Major Major Major
@TenguPhule: That’ll do it.
SiubhanDuinne
@SatanicPanic:
I’m just going to take that as an invitation.
Tony J
@Shalimar:
Not that I’m even vaguely interested in refighting the post-Brexit arguments, but let’s be clear. The Remain campaign was ‘led’ by Cameron and Osborne, which left Corbyn in the shitty position of supporting the campaigning choices of men he despised when he knew that a large chunk of Labour’s core working class vote were reporting that they wanted out.
And if he’d based Labour’s campaign on a 2nd Referendum and opposition to Brexit we’d all be talking about something else because the exit poll would be showing the Tories gaining around 400 seats and Labour collapsing. I was and am Remain, but I understand why Corbyn didn’t put the party’s cock on the block on the issue. Politically it would have been a killer.
MoxieM
@germy: Nooooooo. That is truly a loss. I mourn him.
Morzer
@Tony J:
Corbyn is actually keeping a large chunk of Tory cuts to welfare – 9 billion pounds, so don’t take his claim to be anti-austerity at face-value. As with all things Corbyn, there are deceptions in abundance in his public statements.
patroclus
Four results are in so far and the swings are all over the place – two show Tory gains; 2 show Labour gains. UKIP’s relatively strong vote last time has collapsed and that’s queering the pitch. So all the British psepologists are going batty just now. No discernible trends just yet.
SatanicPanic
@SiubhanDuinne: Of course!
TenguPhule
@Morzer:
So not immediately increasing spending in one specific area translates as “keeping Tory cuts”?
Considering how many different areas need more money immediately due to Tory cuts, (the NHS comes to mind), your negative spin on this seems a little forced.
TenguPhule
@Tony J: That was a concise and factual summary. Well done.
Steve in the ATL
@SiubhanDuinne:
BRB–have clearly not had enough to drink to follow B-J tonight
Mnemosyne
@lamh36:
A cinematic classic! ?
Tony J
@Morzer:
Look, let’s get this out if the way. I’ve read your anti-Corbyn opinions and I’m not biting. Let’s just see how tonight goes and we can judge his performance as party leader.
Full disclosure, voted for him in both leadership elections, would do so again. Agree with him 8 times out of 10, which is fricking amazing for me.
ArchTeryx
@germy: I see that move in World of Tanks all the time. It makes sense of you’re driving a light tank, not so much if you’re driving a civilian vehicle. Methinks Mr. Trumpfuck is a wee bit paranoid.
Kathleen
@sm*t cl*de: Does this mean Trump will start tweeting that his hung Parliament is bigger than UK’s?
Frank Wilhoit
@chopper: Bonar Law was the Newt Gingrich of his time and place. He became Prime Minister at the very end of his life when already dying of cancer, but he made his bones as Tory leader from 1911 after displacing Arthur Balfour (of Declaration fame). Very few people know that Britain was on the very razor’s edge of civil war (over Ireland) when WW I broke out and gave everyone something else to focus on. Bonar Law bears a lot of the blame, along with a few other blackguards like the utterly odious Edward Carson. Our politicians are lightweights by comparison.
Morzer
It looks like the UKIP vote has disintegrated into inconsistent voting blocs all over the place, which would explain the strange swings in different areas. If that’s the case, it might explain why May’s apparently huge lead hasn’t apparently held up, and why Labour might be doing better than expected. Throw in some tactical voting and the minor parties standing down candidates to stop the Tories and you’ve got a recipe for the more traditional polls being wildly wrong.
ArchTeryx
@Kathleen: Unfortunately he doesn’t have a hung anything. Congress is completely and totally under his boot, and we’re all about to be under theirs once Trumpcare is jammed through the Senate.
Aleta
@germy: I hope he’s gone somewhere where there’s cheese.
patroclus
@TenguPhule: Indeed – it was well done. And given its implication that Corbyn doesn’t really care one way or the other about Brexit, didn’t really campaign on it and rarely mentioned it during this campaign, why is it you are absolutely certain that he will brook no compromise on it? He was against the EEC (mildly) in the 1975 referendum, he was against Brexit (mildly) in 2016, he was for Brexit (mildly) in 2017 – he waffles all over the neck all the time on the issue, doesn’t emphasize it and yet you believe he is unmovable? Why? Given that he will have to move on it to form a majority (depending on the results), why do you feel it is the one issue on which he would never compromise? Is it even possible that you might be wrong or are we going to get another lecture?
jl
@TenguPhule:
” ETA: What more did you want him to do? Lie? ”
Most of are steeped in US politics.
Tony J
@TenguPhule:
It helps that its true. The Blame Corbyn campaign was always an invention of the UK MSM and the rump Blairites who wanted him out. Didn’t work, move on.
Morzer
@Tony J:
I deal in facts. Corbyn has lied repeatedly about his record and beliefs. I don’t care whether you bite or not. Corbyn and his cronies are unfit for power. End of story.
Morzer
@patroclus:
It’s interesting to note that Corbyn didn’t campaign in the marginal seats this time. He stayed in safe areas where he could guarantee friendly crowds and no tough questions. Much as he did in his remarkably lazy and ineffective campaign against Brexit.
Kathleen
@ArchTeryx: Sigh. I hear you. I just hope and pray we see our way through this. Tom Perez gave a fiery and inspirational speech this evening. We have to keep organizing and working.
lamh36
Chuck Todd really trying to push to a link from Comey to PBO DOJ & Trump DOJ. 1st on MTP now on Hardball “Bad day for Lynch DOJ & Trump DOJ”
Expect to see him use that line all damn evening into the morning and tomorrow
sm*t cl*de
@Frank Wilhoit:
Shirley you mean Bona Law.
Tony J
@Morzer:
Your concern is noted. Bye then.
patroclus
@Morzer: Indeed, the Greens and several others stood down candidates in loads of seats just for tactical anti-Tory purposes. It appears to be working in some places and perhaps not in others. But it’s definitely thrown the usual “swing” analysis off; at least this early. We need many more results to discern a trend – it’s still quite possible that the Tories are going to win handily.
Peale
@lamh36: ok. Fine. Obama’ DOJ was awful and so I vote to remove him from office the next time he runs for president. That’s my hot take.
rikyrah
@different-church-lady:
We were the cautionary tale.
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
OH FFS! The man did double digit rallies up and down the country to rally Labour to vote remain. HE GOT BUPKUS MEDIA EXPOSURE BECAUSE THEY WERE NOT LEGALLY REQUIRED TO COVER HIM AT THE TIME. There were two, maybe three stories at best during the Brexit campaign that mentioned his activities.
He still delivered 63% of Labour to vote remain. Its not his fault that the Tory voters wanted Brexit in overwhelming numbers.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it now, Corbyn gets the Hillary Clinton treatment.
Please stop enabling that corrosive state of mind.
different-church-lady
@lamh36: Yeah, it’s really hard to see how Lynch continues on as AG after this.
rikyrah
@Mnemosyne: that is very funny
Quinerly
OT: I’ll just leave this little tidbit here about Mrs. John McCain’s new job: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/332005-trump-admin-considering-cindy-mccain-for-state-dept-job-report
Morzer
@Tony J:
*shrug* Another Corbynite who can’t handle facts. Now there’s a surprise!
TenguPhule
@Morzer:
I have yet to see a single unslanted one from you on Corbyn. Other subjects here you’re fine. Corbyn and Labour you go stark raving bonkers so that its easy to mistake you for a Tory that gets all their information from the Sun.
ETA: F auto-correct!
different-church-lady
I’m really glad I hang out in a place where people are free to be wrong about the politics of multiple countries.
Mnemosyne
@Robert Sneddon:
It’s more that, in the US, the previous president has about 2 months to physically pack their stuff up and prepare to move. From what I’ve heard, May is going to have to vacate 10 Downing St. on much less notice than that. I wonder if she’s already started packing.
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
If you can’t understand the difference between campaigning against an issue and accepting a democratic decision’s results and trying to make the best of it, I can’t help you.
Major Major Major Major
@different-church-lady: America, fuck yeah.
Corner Stone
Interesting to see the baseless slander of Corbyn here. I wonder if there’s village testimony of Corbyn dancing naked under a full moon and him sacrificing small animals.
Tony J
@Morzer:
And again, I hear your ‘concerns’, but I don’t feel it necessary to give them time of day. If that bothers you, talk to someone else about it.
patroclus
@Mnemosyne: It’s only 6-1 Labour right now. I think we should wait at least a little while before we start planning Theresa May’s move. (But it sure would be cool to see the moving vans).
TenguPhule
@Morzer:
And no sooner do you declare you deal in facts then you throw out an easily disprovable lie.
63% of Labour voted remain.
Are you willing to admit you are wrong yet?
JWR
@Iowa Old Lady:
Just a reminder that Katy Kay was the woman who, along with Tweety, blew adoring kisses at manly-man GWB for his manly jet landing on an aircraft carrier to declare “mission Accomplished.”
(PS all. I been away.. computer broke.. gonna get a new one.. one of these days. [But avidly reading along, albeit very slowly].)
sm*t cl*de
From the Grauniad’s live feed:
TenguPhule
@Corner Stone:
I’m sure Morzer will have personal eyewitness reports of the depravities they saw with their own eyes.
Peking Man
@Frank Wilhoit: and just like Ted Cruz, he was born in Canada! There is a Bonar Law High School in Rexton NBA.
patroclus
@TenguPhule: If you can’t answer a simple question without all caps and your usual blather, please don’t respond ever again to my posts. If you ever try to answer my question without the insults and putdowns, I would appreciate it.
TenguPhule
@sm*t cl*de: So the good news continues!
Ladyraxterinok
Germany’s ‘Grand Coalition’ government in the late 60s between the CDU and the SPD caused lots of unrest. IIRC students especially felt their only way to oppose government policies was to take to the streets.
chris
Morzer
@patroclus:
There’s no point in talking with actual Corbynites, let alone some ignorant hobbyist from Hawaii. They want to believe the version of Corbyn that the Dear Leader’s office is peddling to such glorious media outlets as the Canary. Experience keeps a hard school, but fools with have no other. It probably doesn’t matter much. Corbyn’s old and he lost out on his attempt to rig the system when his MP candidates failed to be selected. He’s not going to be able to pass the baton to one of his cronies, which means Labour will, in due course, return to decent, sane hands and boot the anti-semitic, IRA-supporting rabble back to the various sordid Stalinist groups from which they emerged.
Robert Sneddon
@patroclus: Theresa May is out as Conservative leader and that means she is out as PM since she failed to get an increased majority and crush Labour after her dash to the polls. Her time in Downing Street is very limited. Boris Johnston is the 2/1 favourite to replace her as party leader and PM, according to the Daily Torygraph.
I expect the next election to happen before Xmas.
TenguPhule
@patroclus: If you insist on playing the part of a martyred Bernie-Bro upset that Hillary Clinton earns money, I can’t help you.
patroclus
@TenguPhule: Yet another insult-laden post for no reason Are you ever going to stop behaving like that or are your views the only ones that ever count on this blog? What did Morzer do to deserve your latest put-downs?
mdblanche
@Morzer: The UKIP collapse was expected, but their voters were predicted to mostly go over to the Tories. If that’s not happening that might explain why nobody knows what’s going on.
different-church-lady
@chris: Who says Twitter coarsens our public dialog?
patroclus
@TenguPhule: Yet another insult-laden post for no reason. Are you ever going to stop behaving this way or is it even possible that you can be civil?
Kathleen
@lamh36: I’ll bet he giggled in delight as he pulled it off of the fax machine right before air time! Hillary Clinton “scandals” are Village People Viag*a
TenguPhule
@Morzer:
Please show us on the doll where Teresa May cofvefed you.
Kenneth Almquist
The other big news of the day is that the House of Representatives has passed a massive financial deregulation bill.
According to the Republican chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Jeb Hensarling, “Accountability is at the heart of our Republican reform plan.” For example, Dodd-Frank contains a provision allowing the executives of a failed firm to be fired and their bonuses taken back. The House bill will improve accountability by allowing executives of failed firms to keep the bonuses they were awarded while driving the company into the ground. As an added bonus, it will address the problem of unemployment by allowing the executives to keep their jobs.
Morzer
@mdblanche:
That’s the only thing that seems to explain the wildly inconsistent swings to Labour and the Tories in seats that you would generally expect to move in a uniform direction.
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
Perhaps you should reflect on your own words for a bit. Enlightenment may dawn.
satby
@lamh36: Always fun when you can use a Monkees clip!
patroclus
@Robert Sneddon: I’m certainly hopeful that the Torygraph is right. She was a terrible Home Secretary and has been an utter disaster as PM. And calling this election is likely to turn out to be a huge blunder. But it’s still early and exit polls often underestimate the Tory vote.
mdblanche
@Corner Stone: He turned me into a newt!
Morzer
@patroclus:
You know, it’s probably a coincidence, but have you noticed that Trump never tweets while Tengu is ranting on here?
different-church-lady
Wow, this slap fight seems… familiar some how….
patroclus
@TenguPhule: Yet another insult-laden post for no reason. Are you ever going to alter your behavior or is being civil an impossibility from you?
Tony J
8 results in so far, and it’s that time of night when the sample size is so small we actually know less than we did before 10pm.
The exit poll projected a roughly 6\7% pro-Labour swing.
Labour have won 6 seats to the Tory 3 so far, with a swing averaging out to about +2% Labour.
BUT
So far its all been about the UKIP collapse. In Tory seats going to the Tories, in Labour seats mostly to Labour but some to the Tories. No marginals in yet, but the end result could easily end up with the seats in Parliament not shifting much. We’ll have to see what happens when it gets to those Tory marginals, and the Labour ones. It’s all still up in the air.
trollhattan
@TenguPhule: @Major Major Major Major:
Am currently being tormented by a Word file that keeps resetting its language to French, Canadian French at that, then autocorrecting random(?) words to Quebecois. Next I suppose poutine will seep from the USB ports.
Peale
@mdblanche: my guess is that in areas where you’re neighbors are Tories, you went back to being a Tory. And the same for labour.
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
Are you just pretending at this point?
Bumper
@trollhattan: Waves back! It was my 17yo son’s birthday present. It was a hoot to see.
different-church-lady
@trollhattan:
HOW DO I GET ONE OF THOSE?!?
TenguPhule
@trollhattan:
Windows Quebec?
Corner Stone
@mdblanche: The Power of Corbyn compels you! The Power of Corbyn compels you!
Morzer
@trollhattan:
À mon avis, c’est la faute de M. Trudeau.
TenguPhule
@Kenneth Almquist: Everything old is new again.
patroclus
@TenguPhule: Doing better. Not insult-laden, but totally non-substantive and just a personal attack. Are you ever going to change your behavior and try to be civil or is it just going to be insults and personal attacks from you?
Yoda Dog
@Morzer: Oh shit! Someone call the burn unit!
TenguPhule
@patroclus: Go back up the thread and try rereading your own posts as if they’d been posted by someone else to you. Perhaps it will be clear to you then. Or perhaps not. Such is the will of the Force.
Mary G
My authority has spoken:
patroclus
@Morzer: Tengu’s rants have ruined many a thread recently. I was hopeful that a UK election thread might preclude some of the nonsensical know-it-all lectures and personal insults, but apparently, Tengu thinks he is an expert on that too. It gets really old to scroll through the drivel all the time.
p.a.
Back to the greatest country evah, a little historical note:
1974-
For the rest of his presidency, Nixon maintained a loyal core constituency of about 25 percent of those polled who approved of his performance as president. But most people held a negative view of his presidency, with disapproval ratings in the mid-60s.
Got a ways to go, but trend is hopeful. 25%-ish, dare we say 27???
mdblanche
@Morzer: If Brexit stays on track and keeps the EU and the UK feuding over divorce terms Putin will be satisfied.
patroclus
@TenguPhule: Yet another insult-laden post that was completely non-substantive. Are you ever going to change your behavior or is being civil completely foreign to you?
TenguPhule
@Morzer: Is this your version of “Not the puppet, you’re the puppet!”?
You lie, run away when confronted with your lie, then try to blame someone else for your own sins.
Morzer, is there something you want to tell us about yourself?
Morzer
@patroclus:
Omnes Omnibus
@patroclus: At least he’s not calling for violence in the streets as our only option.
different-church-lady
@patroclus: Rhetorical questions really only need to be asked once.
TenguPhule
@Mary G: Sorry, on this matter Rowling is a twit.
Morzer
TenguPhule
@patroclus: You really do have no sense of irony at all. Its remarkable.
patroclus
@mdblanche: Hopefully, Brexit will be more or less dead if the exit polls are correct. With the Lib Dems and SNP being necessary for any coalition (with Labour) and their opposition to the very idea, any new Labour-led coalition will want to preserve all the benefits of EU membership. With France’s election and (hopefully) the result tonight, Putin’s goals will be thwarted.
Morzer
@Mary G:
Well, she’s right about that. Even Corbyn knows it – which is why he stayed away from the marginal seats in this election.
Robert Sneddon
@Peale: The Tories had an inbuilt advantage last time with pro-Brexit voters since they were clearly anti-EU, even if not officially. There were a substantial number (I’ve seen figures of 25-30% mooted) of Labour supporters who were strongly pro-Brexit and who provided support for UKIP in the previous election since Labour was generally pro-EU. The bad news for UKIP is that they’re a one-policy party and they won with the Brexit referendum result, so now the Labour party voters are coming home again, mostly. Whether it’s enough to deny the Conservatives a majority this time around is still to be seen.
Older people vote Conservative and they’re more likely to use postal ballots which aren’t registered in exit polls. This gives the Tories a little bit of breathing space.
Morzer
@patroclus:
I wonder if what might happen is the emergence of a new centrist coalition (and ultimately party), built around the sane core of Labour MPS, plus the Lib Dems, Green(s), and Remainer Tories. I could imagine that configuration being able to govern. It’s admittedly unlikely, but then none of the other possible combinations work either.
Robert Sneddon
From Warren Ellis’ Twitter account:
“Report: steam, fire, screaming of demon engines emanating from Uxbridge proven to be Boris Johnson masturbating over the exit poll”
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
And even after this fantasy was picked apart, you insist on peddling it again.
Why?
Corner Stone
@Mary G: As your post notes, that tweet is from April. Any idea what she thinks more recently?
Mnemosyne
@Tony J:
Given that Farage has been prancing around flaunting his Russian connections, it seems that U.K. voters are less likely than US voters to want to become a Russian client state.
patroclus
@Morzer: I doubt it. Only Kenneth Clarke fits the definition of sane Tory Remainer (in that it was just him and a handful that had the courage to vote no on the Article 50 trigger). I think if the exit polls hold, it’s gonna be Corbyn leading a left-of-center coalition which will hopefully kill Brexit (or render it so soft as to be unrecognizably Brexit). Labour is far better on social and economic issues than the Tories, so that wouldn’t be all that bad a result. And is certainly what I’m rooting for.
Tony J
@TenguPhule:
Come on now, JK is a solid Labour supporter who desperately wants the Tories out and who openly supports many of the policies Corbyn agrees with. Back in April Corbyn’s Labour was so far behind that there was literally no chance of that happening, and she didn’t like that result. It took an actual General Election campaign for the balance to shift and I think JK is the kind of person who will hold her hand up and say she was majorly wrong if Corbyn’s Labour does better than expected.
Shorter me – She’s no Susan Sarandon
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m happy for Labour and Morzer and patroclus are both trying to shit all over the good news. You might see why I’d have an issue with that.
Robert Sneddon
@Morzer:
That centrist coalition is called the Social Democrat and Liberal Party aka the SDLP or Gang of Four. Their direct successors, the Liberal Democrats are on track to gain an impressive 14 seats and 3.4% of the vote this election after going into coalition with the Tories the last time they got a substantive number of seats. No-one trusts “centrists” because they support Tories, much as “independents” in America are reliable Republican voters.
Omnes Omnibus
@Morzer: That was the dream of the Liberal-SDP alliance that became the Lib Dems.
Gelfling 545
@sm*t cl*de: I just wonder if her thoughts were that she needed either a landslide majority to go forward or else to get out completely. Negotiating something like that with a weak hand would seriously suck sewage.
Major Major Major Major
So we get threads for British politics and the Stanley Cup, but where’s one for something normal people and real Americans like?
MoxieM
@trollhattan: orange or white squeaky cheese?
TenguPhule
@Tony J:
So she blamed the person being stabbed in the back instead of the PLP who had the brilliant idea of launching a leadership challenge right after the referendum and made Labour look like a bunch of bumbling idiots who couldn’t be trusted in government.
MoxieM
@Major Major Major Major: Poutine, ne c’est pas?
different-church-lady
@Major Major Major Major: Waterboarding?
patroclus
@Omnes Omnibus: Yeah, Tengu ruined a good thread by de-railing it with that absurd rant just a few days ago. That shtick has gotten really old and many BJ regulars have noticed it.
8-5 Labour now; still very early and swings are all over the place because of UKIP collapsing.
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
At least we can agree on this.
Major Major Major Major
@MoxieM: oh man, now I want poutine.
@different-church-lady: when is Trump bringing back torture, anyway?
Omnes Omnibus
@TenguPhule: They aren’t shitting over the good news. They are largely discussing the possibility that this good news could spark a revisit of Brexit. While you dismiss it out of hand, others do not.
different-church-lady
@Major Major Major Major: I’ve felt pretty tortured ever since he announced.
Omnes Omnibus
@Robert Sneddon: Damn you! And you were prolix.
Tony J
@Mnemosyne:
While I think there’s going to turn out to have been quite a bit of Russian money swilling around in UKIP coffers the whole idea of Russian interference in British elections hasn’t reached the same level of public consciousness as in the U.S. Farage is gone, the current UKIP leader is an exposed fantasist, but the damage is done.
Yeah, I’ll never forgive the Leavers.
patroclus
@TenguPhule: It was a simple question that you never answered. Instead, we got your usual rants and insults and non-substantive posts. You didn’t debunk anything except in your own mind. Are you ever going to be civil and answer the questions? Or are you just going to pretend that you did and insult anyone and everyone like usual?
A few more results in and the Tories have been disappointed by not taking seats that they’ve targeted! The Labour swing is still looking good!
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus:
Morzer certainly is not. He’s been doing a delightful dump all thread.
patroclus at least appears to be trying to discuss it, but is getting outraged over my outrage at the peddling of well worn bullshit about Corbyn’s efforts during the referendum. Making common cause with Morzer certainly didn’t help either in my eyes.
different-church-lady
Hey, HEY… there are other websites for that kind of thing!
Morzer
@Robert Sneddon:
You do realize that the Lib Dems would be part of the coalition? There’s no chance of Corbyn putting together a coalition and the Tories don’t seem to have anyone to negotiate with either. Two choices: an alternative coalition emerges (which is going to be a centrist configuration of some sort) or a minority Tory government staggers on until everyone decides that it’s time for yet another election.
Robert Sneddon
@Omnes Omnibus: The Brexit decision is not going to be revisited, it is going to happen. Sorry. Too many Tories love the idea and a large minority of Labour’s traditional support is quite xenophobic and nationalistic and would abandon Labour for UKIP again if they tried to force a rethink on Brexit.
The SNP are preparing a possible lifeboat for Scotland with a second independence referendum which, if it succeeds will presage a rapid re-entry to the EU but this will only happen after UK Brexit in March 2019. I suspect part of the decision to not hold the referendum before that point is to let the disaster unfold for a time before asking the question (again).
Origuy
@trollhattan: Click the Review tab, then Language, then Set Proofing Language. The precise sequence will vary depending on the Word version.
Betty Cracker
@different-church-lady: I love this comment so much. I don’t know dick about U.K. politics, but as a Floridian, it’s such a relief to be an innocent bystander.
Tony J
@TenguPhule:
In that quote she didn’t blame anyone, she said Labour weren’t going to form a Government under Corbyn and that was bad. In April that was everyone’s opinion. Even mine, and I’m only a Labour Party member again because Jeremy won the leadership election. JK isn’t a politician, she just wants results, which is fair enough. She (hopefully) turned out to be wrong. And of she comes out and says so then I’ve no problem with her initial doubts.
TenguPhule
@patroclus: My answer was at @120 to Shalimar. You started the snide remarks @154 and then jumped onto the “Bullshit” with your post @196. I blew up at you on @208 and you completely failed to address the points I made. At that point I stopped taking you seriously.
stinger
@chopper: Ahem. Electoral College?
Morzer
@Robert Sneddon:
Sturgeon wanted an earlier referendum, but backed off hastily when it became clear that the Scots were not happy at the prospect of yet another vote on the subject as well as Brexit. In the end and reluctantly, she chose … wisely. Theresa May chose … poorly.
TenguPhule
@Tony J:
If she does I will admit I was wrong about calling her a twit.
patroclus
@Omnes Omnibus: Indeed, Tengu’s inability to discuss with any degree of rationality an issue with which someone disagrees without launching into personal attacks has constantly derailed the thread. But the rest of us are discussing the likely impact on Brexit of the (so far) favorable returns. As well as other issues like the effect on Putin and spending commitments and Scotland and the Northern Irish border and London as a financial center, and the customs union and the single market and the ag subsidies. All of which could be subject to WAY different policies if the exit polls translate into actual results. Tengu’s immaturity has distracted from the discussion but it is ongoing.
Tony J
@Robert Sneddon:
Yeah, I hate it, but that’s exactly right.
I really liked being a European for a while. Pity the Leavers had to screw that up for us.
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
I don’t know, are you?
Omnes Omnibus
@Robert Sneddon: You are probably right about Brexit, but, in a way, some of us see you as having a chance to dig your way out of your mess. We, here in the USA, simply have to trudge through ours and try to keep the assholes from breaking too much shit until the next couple of elections give us a chance of actually fixing anything. Why can’t we all be more like the French?
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
I had “RT News” on for a little while, they look like death warmed over. Even an old hardline Tory MP was on CNN International saying Putin was counting on May to deliver a hard break on Brexit and that is now in doubt.
It’s interesting how their pols are unvarnished in discussing politics, facts, and opinions, even while remaining partisan.
really good polling analysis on CNN International.
Tony J
@TenguPhule:
She’s a pretty cool lady. She’ll come good.
patroclus
@TenguPhule: Your answer was nowhere other than in that nonsensical insult-laden ALL CAP rant. And your continued incivility has now lasted for nearly 200 posts. Are you ever going to change your behavior or is incivility all we can expect from you?
Labour holds Tooting w/ an increased majority! The Guardian is reporting that the Tories are giving up on a majority!
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
This may come as a shock, but I’m not the one always in the wrong.
Morzer
Denis MacShane @DenisMacShane 2h2 hours ago
Denis MacShane Retweeted Alberto Nardelli
Yes. Cameron kept 1.9 milion 18-24 voters off elect register in Brexit referendum. Maybe they are saying No to hard Brexit?
Baud
Man, Brexit itself was less contentious than this thread.
mdblanche
The Beeb says Nick Clegg and a bunch of Tory VIPs are in big trouble.
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
Ahem.
I won’t expect an apology from you. That would be asking for too much, it seems.
Morzer
@patroclus:
Steve in the ATL
Jesus fucking Christ what a fucking tedious thread
patroclus
@Robert Sneddon: I’m not so sure. Neither the SNP nor the Lib Dems are likely to join a coalition led by Labour that does not commit to the single market, the customs union, free labor mobility, universal human rights, no border controls in Ireland, agricultural subsidies, continues Scottish membership, London as the “offshore” financial center and much more. Corbyn’s quandary will be whether he wants a majority or a very soft Brexit but he won’t get both.
Robert Sneddon
@Morzer: What, all 14 of them? The SNP are taking big losses from their unsustainable peak from the previous election but they’re still looking to have twice as many MPs as the “centrist” Tory-supporting LibDems.
Let’s put what you’re envisaging in American terms:
Depending on the final numbers Jeremy Corbyn could put together a confidence-and-supply coalition if not a formal coalition of the sort that scuppered the Tory-supporting LibDems last time. History says that sort of government doesn’t last that long. He wouldn’t be PM for long but whatever happens he’s got his revenge on the right-wing PLP members who have been shivving him continuously since the Labour Party members en masse elected him to the leadership, twice.
TenguPhule
@Tony J:
I appreciate the civility. It makes it much easier to respond civilly.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
David Cameron calls the UKIP “a bunch of fruitcakes and racists”. Oddly the UK press didn’t clutch their pearls and head to the fainting couches like the US “press” did when Clinton denounced the Alt Right
Morzer
@Baud:
The thread isn’t particularly contentious. There’s one person who doesn’t want to do anything but throw insults, but everyone else is basically talking and thinking about the future in reasonable terms. If you ignore the random rage-gibberings from said person, there’s a decent discussion to be had.
TenguPhule
@Robert Sneddon:
I laughed.
Iowa Old Lady
@SiubhanDuinne: I eventually realized that. Took me a while though.
TenguPhule
@Morzer:
Yeah, you. Want to address your lie yet or just keep pretending it didn’t happen?
patroclus
@TenguPhule: That’s not an answer and you left out the ALL CAPS portion and the FFS and the other insults (I suppose conveniently). What was the reason for the insults? For the personal attacks? Did you ever answer any of those questions?
hueyplong
@Steve in the ATL: I was just about to post, “Jesus Fucking Christ what a tedious thread.”
And now I guess I have.
Let’s do this 43 more times, in tribute to the other two.
Morzer
@Robert Sneddon:
American terms aren’t relevant here. In Britain, it’s entirely possible for MPs from a variety of parties to come together, create a national unity government, choose a prime minister and work on the basis of shared commitments. That’s essentially what Cameron achieved and it’s looking increasingly like the most realistic option for the future.
Quinerly
@Baud:
Well, I tried to interject about Cindy McCain getting a job in the Trump Administration. I was ignored. I’m going home….?
Major Major Major Major
@Steve in the ATL:
Maybe we can at least Tbogg it.
Tony J
Mahri Black wins re-election for the Scottish National Party. Frankly I don’t care that Labour didn’t take that seat. She’s pretty awesome and real. Early 20s and, uh, let’s say really, really earthy. When point-blank asked to comment on Corbyn’s statement that the War on Terror was a failure she didn’t play politics, she just said she completely agreed and didn’t understand how anyone could disagree.
Cool.
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
Okay, so here is the rest of that post.
Please proceed to point out the insult to you.
And now tell me which “rant” parts were not true.
I already told you. Reread your own posts as if they were addressed to you personally instead of me.
patroclus
@Robert Sneddon: That’s a possibility if Corbyn really wants to implement a Brexit. That is, he’d rely on Tory votes to push it through, but he’d have at least a little while to implement his budget (which he really cares about), perhaps a climate change bill and maybe some other stuff (like more investment in the NHS, fuel allowances, pensions etc…). We’ll just have to see what is important to him – he could have a majority with the SNP and the Lib Dems but maybe he doesn’t want to compromise.
Morzer
@patroclus:
There’s no chance that the SNP are going to prop up Corbyn and not much that that the Lib Dems would want to do so either. Not to mention the fact that he’s already ruled out a coalition.
Tony J
@TenguPhule:
Why do you think I’m not rising to the bait from other posters? If Labour were losing out I’d relish an argument. As it stands I’ll just let the unfolding tapestry of events do my arguing for me.
TenguPhule
@Morzer: I commend you on a productive comment.
Shalimar
@TenguPhule: Morzer is anti-Corbyn, pro-moderate Labour. Patroclus seems if anything overly-optimistic on Corbyn’s willingness to kill Brexit. About the only thing they seem to agree on is that you’re being an ass.
Uncle Cosmo
@Morzer: Though we’ve heckled you & flayed you,
By whatever Deity made you,
You’re a bigger fool than Trump is, Tory May!
TenguPhule
@Tony J: I suppose I’m just irked by how much of the Hillary Treatment that Corbyn got and how so many commenters here jumped on board that same train but didn’t seem to notice because the target is male this time. We just saw how a bad media can say a lot about nothing burgers, but its the same Lucy with the football all over again.
sm*t cl*de
@Gelfling 545:
Not really. Despite May’s rhetoric, and her promises to be the Strong Negotiator for England, the Brexit negotiations don’t happen at the level of national leadership. She would have no role in them. And a “weak hand” in those negotiations are all about what the UK has to bargain with (i.e. sweet-feck-all), unaffected by the strength of national support,
May’s snap election was all about strengthening her own position, and knee-capping her domestic opponents. Her decision to ask for a mandate, and call a referendum on her leadership, was completely voluntary. Well done.
TenguPhule
@Shalimar: I have problems dealing with people who insist on peddling disproven bullshit. You didn’t help matters either.
ETA: Please be aware this is not an insult directed at you, I am trying to be civil here.
Morzer
@Shalimar:
BI-PARTISAN CONSENSUS ALERT!
I suspect that Patroclus and I agree in quite a few areas.
Robert Sneddon
@Morzer:
David Cameron, the moron who committed Britain to the Brexit referendum, or are you referring to some other Cameron? David Cameron, the austerity-at-all-costs idiot who kept the recession running longer than pretty much anywhere else on the planet due to his doctrinaire bungling of the economy? Or is this some kind of alternate-history David Cameron, a bit like the Ladies from Maine?
In 2010 the LibDems saw their chance to get their feet under the table of Number Ten and went for it, and the result was a Tory-Tory government which the electors rightly punished them for in the 2015 election when they went from 57 seats to 8. Not going to happen again, assuming they’re smart but it will take them a generation for the Tory taint to evaporate from their skins.
Shalimar
@TenguPhule: For what it’s worth, I am generally pro-Corbyn in the inter-party spite, except that I don’t believe his supposed moderation on Brexit. I am happy to have a leftist heading a major party and don’t like all the effort spent undermining him. But Brexit is huge step backwards for world security and I don’t think Corbyn has done an effective job leading the opposition.
patroclus
@Morzer: Well, I disagree. I know they’ve all “ruled out” coalitions (Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems) but minds frequently change when the opportunity is given for some kind of power. Angus Robertson may well go down and a new SNP parliamentary leader could simply change the position. Farron has said “no way” but Clegg has said “way.” I don’t think there’s “no chance.” They could – with a majority – presumably make policy for five years and keep the Tories out for that time. That’s a powerful incentive if they could just cobble together a majority. Just think – a socially progressive government, no Brexit, a left-of-center budget, close ties again with the Europeans, a united anti-Trump EU, mutual defence, a dominant London off-shore eurosecurities market, a stabilized banking system, a stable pound, growth, development and all sorts of good things. If only they’re willing…
sm*t cl*de
@mdblanche:
Clegg’s out.
TenguPhule
@Robert Sneddon: Your way with words is a joy to read.
TenguPhule
@Shalimar:
Alright, I can respect that. I think you’re wrong, but I can respect your point of view now that you’ve made it clear.
In all fairness, he hasn’t had a lot to work with. The PLP are perhaps some of the stupidest elected representatives on Earth.
Omnes Omnibus
@TenguPhule: People may look at the 62% of Labour who voted to remain and conclude that this number was baked in and that Corbyn’s efforts were tepid. I have not followed the issue close enough to offer an opinion. I am just pointing out that your statistic doesn’t actually prove anything. People’s opinions can differ.
Major Major Major Major
@Morzer: stop making me agree with bipartisan consensus!
Chet Murthy
@Bill E Pilgrim:
FTFY.
chopper
@TenguPhule:
oh, jesus, shouldn’t you be out doing target practice or something in preparation for the great bloody upcoming civil war or something? or at least cleaning the leaves out the sewer grates so the rivers of blood don’t back up in the streets?
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus:
According to the new reports at the time, Labor was initially split 50/50 on the matter. Their northern districts were especially hard core Brexit.
Elizabelle
A fresh thread would be minty.
Isn’t a pet doing something? More photos/tweets of dogs in bags? (Who could tire of seeing pets out and about?)
Dogs in subways? (Thanks, NYC.)
JWR
@Tony J:
Also too, AM Hate Radio. Is there anything of the sort in Britain? I really don’t know, but I think it’s effect here in America is huge, and not given its (negative) due.
Morzer
@Robert Sneddon:
Whether you think Cameron was a good prime minister or not is irrelevant here. The point is that it is possible under the British system for MPs of different parties to come together and form a unity government in ways that the American system simply doesn’t allow. If that coalition were constructed on the basis of sane Labour, remainer “soft” Tories and the Lib Dems (who would presumably have to be part of it) it doesn’t matter whether the Lib Dems have 5 MPs or 50. They are still a building block in the whole structure. It’s perfectly possible for such an arrangement to be made and there are precedents for it, especially if it’s understood to be a government constructed to address a national emergency, such as Brexit. This election has made clear that there is no mandate for a hard, reckless Brexit of the sort that May was selling. There’s equally no mandate for a Labour government of the Corbynite variety. Under the circumstances, the choices are an ineffectual minority Tory government (and almost certainly another election in the near future) or a coalition that can govern for a full term. Given that neither the Tories nor Labour can apparently construct a workable coalition because of their lack of partners, the logical outcome seems to be some new political configuration of existing MPs into a unity coalition.
TenguPhule
@chopper: Was that all you had to say?
chopper
@TenguPhule:
what, you want more?
Quinerly
@Elizabelle:
Poco looks gorgeous….smells delightful. He was at the neighborhood doggie spa this AM. They have this doggie walk in whirl pool bath. Jets! He would like to go back to La Posada and watch trains from the FDR room.?
TenguPhule
@chopper: I’ve been trolled by better. Step up your game.
germy
@JWR:
I’ve always wondered about that. I know Rupert has worked his magic over there (as he did here) but I don’t know if they have the UK equivalent of hate jocks.
(Also, over here the hate radio is on FM as well. A few years back I spent some time on the road, and couldn’t believe what I was hearing on my car radio; especially in the evening.)
Morzer
@patroclus:
Angus Robertson isn’t the issue here. What matters is that the SNP have to destroy Labour in Scotland before they can call credibly for a second IndyRef with the Tories as their useful “English” enemies. They have absolutely no interest in helping Labour (and this was true before Corbyn came on the scene).
TenguPhule
@Morzer:
Or just another election. But that might upset people.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Jonathan Bartley (co-leader of Green Party) is denouncing Corbyn as a Neo Liberal sell out.
On one level it’s comforting that daddy derangement syndrome isn’t just an american phenomenon.
chopper
@TenguPhule:
i’m not trolling you. i’m saying you’re fucking tedious as all hell. i mean, at least the juvenile blood-and-guts war cosplay fantasies are more easily ignorable. for fucks sake, man.
Tony J
@TenguPhule:
Believe me I’m irked as well, but this is Election Night. The arguments are over, the effects of the media bias already baked in. I’m following results and stacking up chips to use later this morning when I politely ask doubters “Think you might have been wrong?”
Labour haven’t lost a seat yet. Winning big. I’m feeling good.
Robert Sneddon
@Morzer:
That’s… sweet. Bless. From Robert Reich, a quote that never grows stale:
TenguPhule
@chopper: Bullshitters peddled bullshit. I called them out on their bullshit. If you don’t want to talk about anything, why are you here?
TenguPhule
@Robert Sneddon: *Doubled over laughing*
May I say that I am probably enjoying your posts more then I ought to. This is almost unfair, you’re dueling an unarmed opponent in a battle of wits.
patroclus
@Shalimar: Perhaps I am overly optimistic. I’ve stated my doubts. But as I explained way upthread, I don’t think Corbyn really cares all that much about it and could very well opt for a Norway style-deal (which preserves all aspects of EU membership without the actual membership) which is a far cry from the sort of hard Brexit May and her acolytes have been talking about. Especially with the collapse of UKIP, I think the pressure for a Brexit is going to ease framatically and the door will be open for Corbyn to compromise in order to get the SNP and Lib Dems in.
Omnes Omnibus
@Robert Sneddon: That was written by Tbogg, not Robert Reich.
Morzer
@Robert Sneddon:
You do realize that [apparently Tbogg!] was talking about a completely different political system? Did that small, but absolutely crucial point escape you? Britain has had a number of coalition governments over the years, America – zero. Why? BECAUSE THEIR POLITICAL SYSTEMS ARE DIFFERENT.
Elizabelle
@Quinerly: Pogo the metrosexual pooch. Give him a hug for me.
chopper
@TenguPhule:
hey, i agree. far be it for anybody to disagree with an american who considers british politics ‘a hobby’ of his. and it was really helpful of you to explain to all of us the names of the political parties. you’re really a fuckin’ expert.
chopper
@Omnes Omnibus:
shut up, he’s rolling.
JWR
@germy:
Oh yes. Back during GWB’s Little Adventure into Iraq, my local morning drive-time FM jocks were all in for the Invasion. I do know that Britain has very conservative, right-wing daily papers, but radio? Hmm. I’ll have to look into that.
patroclus
The latest swings have all been Labour favorable (currently 56-39 Labour in the lead) – it’s looking more and more like the exit polls are right. But every seat counts – a seat here or there could still make a huge difference. There’s gonna be a lot of results shortly and we’ll learn a lot more soon.
Morzer
@chopper:
He’s making a really impressive run at Jim Hoft’s title though. Credit where it’s due!
Robert Sneddon
@TenguPhule: We had two elections back in 1974, the year is young so we could get another by Xmas. There’s a tradition to hold elections in the early summer when the weather is nicer but most people haven’t gone off on holiday yet. It’s only a tradition like the “vote on Thursdays” thing though.
We might get three next year though.
TenguPhule
@chopper: So you didn’t read, just skimmed the cliff notes.
Tony J
@JWR:
We’ve got it, sort of, but nowhere near the same extent as in the U.S. probably because we’ve got BBC radio that sucks in as lot of casual radio listeners who would otherwise go looking for a channel that appeals to their biases. On, most of our Fox\Hate Radio effect comes via the print media. The Times, the Telegraph, the Daily Mail, The Express, The Sun, The Star, all right wing. The Independent is centrist, the Guardian and Mirror centre-left. And that’s it.
Its why the Right Wing Press are full on against the BBC. They want the TV news opened up to go the same way. Its not even that the BBC is left wing or centre left, they’re not, they’re just independent.
If this election continues along the same lines as so far the right wing media has shit the bed big style.
TenguPhule
@patroclus: I’ll take it you do not actually want a reasoned discussion then?
TenguPhule
@Robert Sneddon:
You have my deepest sympathies.
patroclus
@TenguPhule: I take it you’re still being an ass and are making your usual non-substantive posts then? Multiple posters have asked you to stop it – why don’t you?
TenguPhule
@patroclus: So that’s a yes then.
@340
Steve in the ATL
@<a href="#commen@Major Major Major Major: t-6418332″>hueyplong:
Well said
That would be the only way to redeem this tedious fucking thread.
ETA: reply fail, but this thread does not warrant fixing it
patroclus
@TenguPhule: Please stop.
chopper
@Steve in the ATL:
WHERE’S THE BLOOD I WAS PROMISED RIVERS OF BLOOD
Robert Sneddon
@Morzer: The last “coalition” government that was worth a damn was during WWII. Afterwards the electorate threw the incumbents out in a major realignment election. Since then any formal coalition involved the 350kg gorilla party doing what it wanted and the partner parties getting shafted on a regular basis. The lure of power is tempting though despite what the history books say.
There is another form of minority government which has also had its time in the spotlight, the confidence-and-supply type where the smaller parties get some of their wishlist and they don’t vote the minority government down. If (and it’s a big if) Labour can increase their number of seats sufficiently then the smaller parties might be willing to provide C&S and provide Corbyn with enough votes for him to get the taxi ride to Buck House no-one ever believed he would take. The bad news is that the few C&S-supported governments over the last century have lasted short, usually due to defections and by-elections eating away at what is by its nature a wafer-thin working majority.
Uncle Cosmo
@patroclus: One of the underappreciated charms of this place is that there is no nanny-blog-enforced requirement to be civil to anyone participating herein, on pain of expulsion.
If you’re looking for a space like that, the Great Orange Satan (which I abandoned ~18 mos ago for precisely that reason) will be happy to have you. (Until you use an unapproved term & get your sorry arse banned.)
But if you’re expecting BJ to become that sort of namby-pamby space, let me cordially invite you to fuck right off.
Edward Marshall
A UK lib dem partisan thinking you all are stupid is rich. I can’t think of stupider people on the planet unless they jerk off to Orange Book and Clegg.
TenguPhule
And it looks like the SNP is going to become a non-entity.
So much for going into coalition.
Steve in the ATL
@chopper: I see you’re resorting to personal attacks because you have no substantive response to my post–so there! You have just admitted that I am right and you are wrong! And I’m going to post 100+ variants of this for the next few hours! And I’m not tiresome at all!
TenguPhule
@patroclus:
Why? Does truth act like a repellent to you?
chopper
@Steve in the ATL:
it’s better barked like a sea lion but that’s just about right.
Morzer
@chopper:
“Oh no it isn’t!”
Farage has just proclaimed Theresa May toast and said that a second Brexit referendum is now a possibility. Should it occur, he will graciously return to politics.
different-church-lady
@chopper: WE HAVE BEEN UNFAILINGLY POLITE!
different-church-lady
@Morzer:
…as farce?
Shalimar
@TenguPhule: I want to be wrong. It mystifies me how an issue that was very close to 50/50, with a decent number of Brexit supporters saying afterwards that they didn’t really want to leave and were just voting against government on general principle, could somehow end up this round with the two parties representing over 90% of the electorate saying they weren’t going to refight the battle.
Omnes Omnibus
@different-church-lady: Why should he change?
mdblanche
And Nick Clegg is officially out.
TenguPhule
@Shalimar: Because half of those they polled as Remain said the results should be honored. Can’t fight 75% of the voters.
Morzer
Morzer
Morzer
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards metropolitan future elitism to be born?
JWR
@Tony J: Thank you so much! I know that BBC radio, for all its faults, sure ain’t what we’ve got here in right-wing radio. (Also, the right-wingers I know don’t strike me as very well read.)
mdblanche
@TenguPhule: There’s talk gains in Scotland could be enough to keep the Tories in government!
Morzer
Morzer
mskitty
It is now Tories 108, Labour 126, SNP 16, DUP 5, Sinn Fein 3, Plaid Cymru 3, Ulster Unionist 1, LIB DEMS 2, and Independent 1. For all the snarling jackals’ reading pleasure.
Gemina13
@Morzer:
Wonderful use of that old poem. I wonder if Farage & Co. will console themselves with something from “The White Man’s Burden.”
Tony J
The tosser who wrote the Tory manifesto just lost his seat to Labour. What a bizarre night.
Morzer
rikyrah
all the pundits trying to grade the inadequate White Man in the White House ON A CURVE….
Here’s what you call breaking it down to the muthaphuckin’ fraction by Pookey with the gold teeth.
” In the Dope Game, it’s called CONSPIRACY”
https://twitter.com/plies/status/872956528378204160?
patroclus
@Tony J: Now that’s a result that will make me return to the thread! Bwahahahahaha. What could they possibly have been thinking? An elderly tax? Reduced fuel allowances? Increased student fees? Cuts in pensions?? I think the Tories deluded themselves into thinking Labour was SO unpopular and they’d get a huge Brexit mandate and just forgot about trying to appeal for votes. It’s still looking good – if a hung Parliament can be considered “good.” But it looks increasingly likely that the Troies won’t get a majority or even a situation in which the Northern Irish could give them one. But the final result is still very unclear.
Vince Cable back in for Twickenham for the Lib dems!
frosty
@Betty Cracker:
I guess I’ll be joining you from South PA now.
rikyrah
5 Clues James Comey Just Left Behind
The ex-FBI director hinted the Trump-Russia investigation could be bigger than previously thought.
Noah Shachtman
Spencer Ackerman
06.08.17 4:08 PM ET
It wasn’t just what ex-FBI director James Comey told senators about the lead-up to Donald Trump firing him over his Russia investigation. It was what he intimated, suggested, winked, and implied about possible ties between Team Trump and the Kremlin.
Throughout the three-hour hearing, Comey dropped several breadcrumbs for legislators, FBI investigators, reporters, concerned citizens, and Tweetstormers to follow. Here are five of these enticing potential clues.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/5-clues-comey-just-left-behind?via=newsletter&source=DDAfternoon
patroclus
One major result is that Northern Ireland is looking like only two parties – the DUP (w/10 so far) and Sinn Fein (w/ 7). Because Sinn Fein is abstentionist, that lowers the majority threshold by 4 seats to 322, which could be significant to whoever tries to form a majority.
Tony J
@patroclus:
I think that’s exactly what the Tories thought. Throw what they liked into the mix, confident Labour would stumble and crumble under the distain of the media and the electorate would give them a massive majority by default. They never suspected that Labour would produce a manifesto the country actually liked and May would turn out to be an utter disaster as a leader.
Speaking of which May has just won her seat but looks like death. She’s talking about being leader of the largest party, not the winning party. She thinks she’s getting a more or less hung parliament.
Bazinga, as the kids’ elder brothers say.
rikyrah
Kamala HarrisVerified account @KamalaHarris
Here’s what we know from #ComeyHearings:
✔️He was concerned Trump would lie about their mtgs
✔️Comey wants Mueller to have full independence
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Lord Buckethead did surprisingly well (link).
Tony J
Crushing defeat for the UKIP leader. Gobshite.
CaseyL
Can you believe this: I hear Boris Johnson might become the leader of the Conservative Party, if/when May loses the position. Boris Johnson?? Isn’t he only a little less reviled than Nigel Farange?
rikyrah
Charlie SavageVerified account @charlie_savage
FBI director nominee Chris Wray had links to the Bush torture investigations, reports @carolrosenberg
Morzer
She’s like an elephant with learning difficulties. Never forgets a line and never comes up with a new one.
BlueDWarrior
@CaseyL: same Boris Johnson who bravely ran away in the post Brexit cluster. UK politics appears to be high on the ether right now.
BlueDWarrior
@Morzer: Broken Record May we could call her.
PaulWartenberg
I doubt Boris can win the leadership, a good number of Tories still remember how he tried to backstab everybody over the Brexit debacle.
sm*t cl*de
So Farron retains his seat. I am disappoint; I held high hopes for Mr Fish Finger.
Morzer
patroclus
It’s not so early anymore and Labour currently leads 198-191. More Tory seats are likely so they’ll probably have the most seats, but not a majority. I’ll admit I didn’t think all that highly of Corbyn until about 6 days ago when the polls changed, but if can put together a good manifesto, campaign well and earn enough seats to be able to defeat a Queen’s Speech, my respect for him has gone WAY up. (Of course, it could go right back down if he remains a slave to Brexit, but I’m hopeful that he won’t). Farron won (who pledged no coalition) and Clegg lost (who said the Lib Dems should be open to it) and Angus Robertson lost but Nicola Sturgeon is the decision-maker for the SNP in any event. The exact outcome is going to be key so it’s still gonna be a long night.
Bad news – the Press Association’s latest projection projects the Tories on 321 – just short of a Sinn Fein-less majority. The DUP could put the Tories in if it ends up that way. It’s still VERY close.
patroclus
The Tories just took the lead 224-221. Bleah!
Morzer
mdblanche
@patroclus: So no nationalists will take their seats, all the unionists will be pro-Brexit, and there’s a chance they could be propping up a Conservative minority government during Brexit and power sharing negotiations. I really can’t imagine a more destabilizing scenario for Northern Ireland than that.
Morzer
Robert the Bruce, Adam Smith.. your boys took a hell of a beating!
Omnes Omnibus
@Morzer: That’s big.
TenguPhule
@CaseyL:
Yes.
Morzer
@Omnes Omnibus:
Indeed it is. I am starting to think that the SNP peaked two years ago and are now on their way down. Could be a more rapid and disastrous fall than anyone would have thought possible. They can’t get another referendum any time soon and without that their record in government is pretty mediocre. What happens to failed nationalist parties? My guess is that they fight a bitter retreat back to fringe status.
TenguPhule
@Tony J:
Looks like I get to do some drinking tonight!
TenguPhule
@mdblanche:
The world has gone mad.
TenguPhule
@mdblanche:
Don’t forget the wonderful way the press and Tories has been banging on about “those evil IRA bastards”.
I’m sure that’s not going to cause any problems down the road. //
Omnes Omnibus
@TenguPhule: You should really reconsider how you deal with your “hobby.”
The Lodger
@mdblanche: So between Nick and Peter Sallis, it hasn’t been a good day for the Cleggs…
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus: Meaning?
patroclus
Sadly, the Tories have been doing better for them. It’s 286-245 with 55 left to declare. It’s looking more and more like the Tories will stay in, perhaps with support from the DUP. With Sinn Fein out, they need 322 and the DUP has 10, so they really only need 312. That means the Tories only need 26 of the remaining 55 and they have a possible majority, which seems likely. So, all our optimism earlier may be for nothing. What a downer after all the earlier hopes.
Omnes Omnibus
@TenguPhule: I think that you actually know little about British politics aside from your fanboi thing for Corbyn. FWIW, I think you know little about US politics and government.
patroclus
Tories 290; Labour 249; Lib Dems 11; SNP 24; DUP 10. With 45 left to declare. Add those up (Tories + DUP) and (L + SNP + LD’s) and it’s real tight. Perhaps a cliffhanger.
patroclus
40 left to declare; Tories on 294 + DUP on 10. They need 322 collectively. But the good news is that the “experts” have now ruled out an absolute Tory majority.
divF
@chopper:
Sorry, all you get is a plague of frogs.
Morzer
patroclus
19 left to declare. Tories 307; Labour 257; Lib Dem 12; SNP 34; DUP 10; Sinn Fein 7; others 4. Hung Parliament confirmed but Tories + DUP could get to 322. Tories need 5 more to do that and it depends on what Arlene Foster wants.
TenguPhule
@divF:
The French are very lovely people, thank you very much.
Morzer
@patroclus:
I imagine that it’s more a question of what the DUP doesn’t want – to which the answer is Corbyn.
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus: I think you should spend a few days reading some of the bullshit the British media dumped on Corbyn over the last two years before calling me a fanboi. If you don’t see the parallels to what Hillary Clinton was put through, I’d like to know why.
Morzer
Fife North East has gone to a third recount. 2 votes is the margin, apparently. SNP v Lib Dem is the fight here.
Morzer
Even with the DUP, May’s maximum possible majority is now 5. Hard to see that there’s going to be any sort of majority for leaving the single market in the House of Commons. Also hard to see how the Tories could do much beyond just keeping the lights on. Looks like another election is coming up in short order.
patroclus
14 remaining to declare. Tories + DUP 318; Labour + everyone else 318. If Sinn Fein (7) would show up, it couldn’t be any closer. But they won’t, so Tories + DUP only need 4 more.
Morzer
Literally by 2 votes.
Morzer
It looks as if the outstanding seats will give May + DUP a very small majority. 5 seats at best, although it might go down to 3. That’s not a majority that can do anything important or even vaguely controversial. My guess is that May will be forced out by her own party and the new leader will call another election fairly quickly.
patroclus
@Morzer: Tories + DUP just got 322 (with 8 left), so it looks like they can form a government if they can agree on a Queen’s Speech. We’ll see. I agree that the majority will not be large and they probably won’t be able to do a whole lot (especially without Northern Irish carve-outs). And it probably won’t last long either. Northern Ireland as a whole voted Remain narrowly, but most of the Leave vote came from DUP voters, so I’m guessing that the DUP will go along with Brexit if they can get some Northern Ireland-specific stuff. So, all our earlier talk was meaningless as it looks like the Tories will stay in (although May herself might not). Which means BoJo and David Davis and all those terrible MP’s.
Very disappointing after all the earlier hopes. Failure by the Cons to achieve an overall majority is a good sign and I’m glad that Labour and the Lib Dems gained seats but not as good as what we hoped for earlier. Too bad.
Morzer
@patroclus:
Consider that a week ago all the talk was of how big the Tory landslide would be. Also, remember that the Tories are hugely divided over Brexit and the result of this election can only embolden those who are against hard Brexit. This isn’t a Tory government with any credibility, much less a majority in Parliament for Brexit. I can’t see how they can hope to govern.
TenguPhule
So post-analysis coming in now.
Looks like the Green party helped a lot by standing aside in strategic areas to stop Tories from getting in. And they paid for it.
All Respect to them.
sm*t cl*de
Tony Blair called for Labour voters to vote for Lib Dem (because if Labour doesn’t stay Blair-style 3rd-Way as his eternal legacy then he’d rather it was destroyed entirely). Nice to see how much attention the electorate paid to him.
Singular
2 seats left, and Kensington has been counted so much people are falling asleep at their desks. One count had about 30 votes in it. This seat has NEVER went to Labour. Fingers crossed, just to put the cherry on Theresa May’s shit-cake :)
Robert Sneddon
@sm*t cl*de: If the electorate were paying attention to the Vicar it would only be to drag his lifeless corpse through the streets of London before hanging it upside down from one of the lampposts on Westminster Bridge while cheery Cockneys set up rotten fruit stands for passers-by to indulge themselves. It says something for the forgiveness and tolerance of the British populace that this has not (yet) happened.