Let’s win this thing in Alabama.
With polls basically tied in AL, markets give Moore (R) about 60/40 chance to beat Jones (D). DEM really need to take this race to have legit shot at taking senate in 2018; winner of election stays in senate for 3 years, through 2020 election.
— David Rothschild (@DavMicRot) November 22, 2017
We already met our goal for Doug Jones. And even better we met the overall goal I set for 2017 — a total of 50K raised here for several candidates. I don’t think we’ve ever raised over a few thousand in an odd year before. So thanks a lot to everybody! If you want to give more to Doug Jones, you can do so here.
rikyrah
This will be about turnout.
Jones is a good candidate.
He deserves our support.
If we can’t support someone WHO PUT THE KLAN IN JAIL…
Then, who, as Democrats, are we suppose to support?
I felt this way before we found out that Moore was literally Chester the Molester.
mike in dc
Well, if nothing else, this will be a good indicator of the strength of tribalism and sheer ruthless political expediency in the GOP base. And our ability to rally our own base turnout in a red state.
Jack the Second
I’ve enjoyed a solid 50% of what DougJ has written; it’d be nice to see a FPer in the Senate.
rikyrah
back to add…
How sweet would it be…
To see Attorney General White Citizens Council’s Senate Seat..
Go to someone who PUT THE KLAN IN JAIL.
Peale
The registration deadline is November 27, so 5 more days (LOL with a holiday and a Sunday thrown in there) to get any voters who may have been sitting out “because their candidate never wins anyway” on the rolls. Hopefully now that the reporting is that the race is competitive, someone is going around finding those potential voters.
rikyrah
Racism and Nationalism Were Central to the Election of Donald Trump
by Nancy LeTourneau November 22, 2017
Adam Serwer has published a profound piece at the Atlantic titled, “The Nationalist’s Delusion.” His subtitle gives you an idea of where he’s headed: “Trump’s supporters backed a time-honored American political tradition, disavowing racism while promising to enact a broad agenda of discrimination.” Here is how he summarizes the point later on in the piece:
From historical analysis to current data and interviews with Trump supporters, Serwer provides more than ample documentation for this assertion. But one of the most fascinating questions of our time is the one that asks how a country that elected Barack Obama twice could suffer from the delusion Serwer chronicled, leading to the election of Donald Trump.
Turner Hedenkoff
Fingers crossed. Family members in Birmingham are phone-banking for Jones and sound optimistic. But never underestimate Alabama voters’ willingness to whack themselves in the crotch with a ball peen hammer just to show those uppity outsiders a thing or two. It’s a playbook that’s worked for local pols since George Wallace, even as the state posts ever-more-dismal numbers in everything but passing yardage.
Emma
Can I ask a related question? Why do Democrats always put their eggs in one basket?
DEM really need to take this race to have legit shot at taking senate in 2018
Really? If we lose this one, it’s a done deal?
Then why should we keep fighting?
(added) It seems to me every election is now important. From dogcatcher to senator. That’s how the Republicans took over, by fighting for every office, no matter how small. It’s time we fought back EVERYWHERE.
rikyrah
Why Politicizing the U.S. Census Is Dangerous
by Martin Longman November 21, 2017
…………………………………
……………………………..
If you’re in the political minority, there’s a big difference between feeling that you’re being poorly represented and feeling that there is zero chance that that will or ever could change. On the district level, it’s just a smaller version of the problem we have in the Electoral College, where people are disincentivized to vote because they know that their votes won’t count or change anything. How much motivation does a Wyoming Democrat or a Rhode Island Republican really have to vote in a presidential election when they know their vote will be tossed out? But at least the Electoral College has some advantages like preventing the potential need for a national recount. Truly uncompetitive congressional districts suppress political engagement and promote apathy and cynicism, with the ultimate effect of undermining the consent of the governed. The simplest way of putting it is that the political process must offer hope, and ideologically packed districts offer none.
……………………………………..
………………………
He’s being brought in to help the Republicans use the census to their political benefit, which is bad enough in itself, but also a problem for legitimacy and disenfranchisement. People talk about white privilege all the time, but Americans suffer from a different kind of privilege. Because we’ve had such a stable political system for so long, we don’t think we need to worry about things like legitimacy and the consent of the governed. We can talk about how great it is to have more people getting the representation that they want without taking into account how bad it is to have people disengage from and ultimately revolt against the political system because it’s rigged and pointless and incapable of change or accountability.
It’s a danger when this happens with isolated and powerless minority populations, but it grows into something truly threatening when it happens to one half of the country, in this case the Democratic Party and its supporters. In 2000, Al Gore submitted to the nakedly partisan will of the Supreme Court, but times were different then. There’s no assurance that Democratic partisans will continue to sit still for a political system that is imposed on them specifically to disadvantage and disempower them. At some point, you’d argue they have a moral obligation to take their fight outside of an increasingly unfair civil process and into the streets.
Chyron HR
Even if Jones wins, the fact that Republicans will vote en masse for a child molester just proves that the Democratic party has failed to address the economic anxiety of Ordinary Americans.
Paul W.
Let’s target 20k! But also for our broader candidate goal I think that we should keep pushing that as there is still a lot of time to make a difference.
Perhaps if there is even another list of candidates who we considered reaches before the Virginia election we could start a new pool for them as the 25 districts (or whatever it was) that Clinton won but are R probably already has a lot of attention.
Thoroughly Pizzled
@Chyron HR:
“Why won’t you stop us from committing evil? This is all YOUR fault!”
rikyrah
Trump picks the wrong issue to target Alabama’s Doug Jones
11/22/17 10:06 AM—UPDATED 11/22/17 10:14 AM
By Steve Benen
I thought of this yesterday watching the president go after Doug Jones’ (D) Senate candidacy in Alabama.
Asked soon after if he intends to campaign in support of Roy Moore, the president added, “I’ll be letting you know next week, but I can tell you, you don’t need somebody who’s soft on crime, like Jones.”
Let’s pause for a moment to take stock. Doug Jones is a former federal prosecutor – a role in which he went after criminals. He’s perhaps best known for convicting a pair of KKK members responsible for the 16th Street Baptist Church bombing, which left four children dead.
Roy Moore, who’s been accused of sexual assault, is an alleged child molester. Up until two weeks ago, he was best known for having been removed from the bench – twice – for ignoring federal court rulings he disagreed with.
In Trump’s mind, one of these two men are “soft on crime” – and it’s not the one common sense is pointing at.
zhena gogolia
I’m not seeing an appropriate thread for this, but RIP Dmitri Hvorostovsky (NYT link). I never got to see him in person. Sigh. And Trump still walks the earth.
Archon
@Chyron HR:
“Economic anxiety”, as the reason for Trump’s election went from being considered astute to it being such an absurd analysis of American politics it’s basically a meme now. All in less then a year.
Well done internet.
Knight of Nothing
After Trump’s speech yesterday in support of theocratic pedophile Roy Moore, I donated big and shared the BJ ActBlue link in multiple places.
Trying not to get my hopes too high, but I am excited about the possibility. Fuck these assholes.
JMG
Benen, who I like a great deal, is being naive here. “Soft on crime” means “doesn’t hate nor wants to persecute people of color.”
rikyrah
THE LAST WORD WITH LAWRENCE O’DONNELL 11/21/17
Lawrence Summers on Trump Tax Cuts
Lawrence O’Donnell speaks with former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers about how the Trump-Republican bill violates all of Ronald Reagan’s principles for tax reform and the underreported “vindictive attack” in the tax bill.
SatanicPanic
Will donate as soon as I get home. Hope Doug can pull this off.
bystander
We left NYC an hour ago. We are stuck behind our third accident and we are only to Stamford.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@¡Doug!: Have you seen Jones’s new ad – it’s really clobbers Moore (video)
zhena gogolia
@Knight of Nothing:
Yeah, I’m sitting in a pizza restaurant last night, surrounded by families with young children, and on the teevee they’re discussing on CNN how the President of the United States is defending a pedophile. How low can we sink?
Villago Delenda Est
@rikyrah: He’s part of the problem, not part of the solution, and his ideological bigotry pollutes his academic work. If you can call it that.
zhena gogolia
@bystander:
Oh, I’m sorry!
HRA
@rikyrah: #1
This is exactly how I felt and how I feel now.feel
WaterGirl
@rikyrah: its thanksgiving. Almost.So I’ll say today what I always think – I am really grateful that you post here.
frosty
$25 to Jones from me this morning.
bmoak
Trump is on track to fill more lifetime federal judicial positions by the end of his second year than the past four presidents combined were able to fill.
Yutsano
@bmoak: I’m awaiting a bunch of impeachment trials. The vast majority of the judges he’s selected are at best incompetent and at worst destructive.
oatler.
Let the Confederates have their Golden Calf. Let Kid Rock and Ted Nugent lead the merry dance of MAGA celebration until the earth swallows the lot.
Gin & Tonic
@bystander: Wow. Bad news for my son’s GF and my daughter, who will be making the trip up I-95 at some point today.
Knight of Nothing
@zhena gogolia: exactly! The idea of fighting that horrorshow made donating feel really good.
japa21
@Yutsano: Which is more of a statement about the Republicans in the Senate that they would approve these judges than it is of Trump for nominating them. I doubt he has any idea who these people are.
Corner Stone
@Turner Hedenkoff:
Them boys down in ‘Bama figured out there’s such a thing as the flying forward pass? Well, I’ll be darned!
West of the Rockies (been a while)
@Emma:
BOOM! Well said, Emma.
Peej
If Moore wins, all the 4- and 5-star football recruits that have committed to Alabama and Auburn should be asked if they really want to play for institutions in a state that would elect a shameless pedophile. Do they realize all the molestation-themed taunts they’ll be subjected to on the road? If this were to cause some to decommit, I imagine this would make Nick Saban (the Alabama head coach, for those who don’t know) livid and may even lead him to say “f*** this” and leave. Hey, there’s an opening at UCLA.
College football is religion in that state and they’d lose their s*** if Alabama and Auburn were relegated to the dustbin of the SEC. But if they elect Moore, then they deserve it.
Brachiator
@bmoak:
Is this where I add the almost obligatory “tell me again about how ‘Trump. Clinton. No difference’. ”
@Yutsano:
Unfortunately, they will do a great deal of damage to the country before they are dealt with, assuming that any of them are impeached.
Peale
@bmoak: But bringing that up as a reason to vote for one party over another is “blackmail”.
germy
@Brachiator:
Tide of Right-Wing Judges Could Recede Quickly If Democrats Take Back the Senate
louc
@rikyrah: Not only that, but the NY Times did an interesting story on Moore’s record as a judge. He actually was more sympathetic to “criminals” than most. For instance, he thought it wrong that a guy was charged with robbery for something that was clearly more theft (not paying for a meal at Waffle House). He also infamously was the lone holdout in whether a child care worker should be charged with sexual assault against resistance in the rape of a 4 yo. So who’s soft on crime?
No Drought No More
If the good people of Alabama require my money to influence their vote in this election, the good people of Alabama can kiss my ass.
Corner Stone
Am I going further insane or did the POTUS just call a private US citizen an “Ungrateful fool!” ? On twitter.
germy
@louc:
I’m going to go out on a limb here (without reading the article) and guess it depended entirely on their color.
Corner Stone
@Peej:
You’re not very familiar with how high temp football programs recruit this level athletes, are you?
LurkerNoLonger
@Emma: It’s more of a mathematical calculation. If Jones wins in AL, then in 2018 Dems just have to hold onto the seats they have and flip Arizona and Nevada. (I think. Not good at math)
Ian G.
@bystander:
I’m not all that familiar with the traffic patterns of greater Los Angeles, but I can’t imagine a worse stretch of highway in the developed world than I-95 from the George Washington Bridge to New Haven.
Back in June, I drove from lower Manhattan to Boston on a Friday afternoon. Had tickets to the Red Sox game at 7pm and figured I’d make it with plenty of time if I left Manhattan at 1 pm. At 5 pm, I had just reached Hartford. I risked the traffic ticket and did 85 mph from Hartford to the Airbnb in Brookline in less than 2 hours and got to Fenway in the bottom of the 1st.
Have I mentioned I hate I-95 in CT?
Brachiator
@Peej:
Too complex a concept for most football recruits. Hell, too subtle for most people, period.
The Simp in the Suit
@Peej: Yeah, sure, it makes perfect sense to lay that on a kid in high school.
Brachiator
@germy:
Emphasis on the “IF.”
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@No Drought No More:
You seem lovely. Also a Berner or Buster, correct? If IRRC.
Brachiator
@Corner Stone:
No. The infantile petulance of the man-child who is president of the United States is the new normal.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@rikyrah:
Exactly. Sooner or later this will happen if things don’t change.
Gin & Tonic
@Ian G.: Once you’re on the Mass Pike (I-90) it seems that speed limits are just totally non-binding suggestions.
piratedan
@LurkerNoLonger: and the unspoken thing about Arziona, is that with McCain’s health, there may be two seats open sooner rather than later. I believe Congresswoman Sinema is one likely Democratic candidate, for the other, once a special election is scheduled (if one is needed), it will be interesting to see who runs. Sinema’s likely opponent in the Senate race looks to me Martha McSally (she of the GOP Congressional caucus who said lets throw caution to the wind and ram this sucker through on the ACA repeal).
the Conster
@Archon:
No one has clued in the broses on twitter. They’re hanging on to Dems not pushing Medicare for All as an explanation for why Dems “lost 1000 seats!!!” and Trump.
Peej
@The Simp in the Suit:
Because recruiting in the SEC is never cutthroat. Noooooo. But at the same time, a recruit may only care about the compensation package offered by Alabama boosters and if it’s more than he can get at LSU, TX, TX A&M, FL, Clemson, then good for him.
Amir Khalid
@Corner Stone:
Unlike the last guy who was President, this one does want a cookie just for doing his duty.
gene108
@rikyrah: @? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
Things were a lot more turbulent prior to the New Deal.
Labor strikes / riots, etc. were not uncommon. Those subsided after the New Deal.
The Civil Rights Movements of the 1950’s and 1960’s, along with the Women’s Liberation Movement of the same era, were people taking to the streets.
It’s really only been in the last 40-50 years that we have not seen any mass movements taking to the streets to effect change.
What we have seen, instead, are billionaires buying up politicians, media, etc. to reverse all those gains. They forgot that desperate people will stand-up for themselves, if they keep pushing the way the are.
Emma
@LurkerNoLonger: I understand that, but the low-attention voters do not. People see these kinds of flat statements, say to themselves “why bother putting up with the crap to go vote, then” and stay home. Let’s not risk it.
James E. Powell
@rikyrah:
But it’s not a “we” thing, it’s a people in Alabama thing. This means that it is impervious to rational inquiry.
My expectation is that the white people of Alabama, including especially the people who run the elections, will not see this as a “Holy shit, can we really vote for a sexual predator who targets children?” moment. They see this election, as they’ve seen every election since the Civil War, as a “We must defend the white race!” moment.
I will be genuinely shocked if Moore loses. Stunned.
marcopolo
@Emma: Not sure who said the Democrats were putting all their eggs in one basket. If you spent a little time reading up on the 2018 midterm you’d know that the Democrats have to defend 23 seats (10 considered vulnerable for flipping), plus 2 Independents who caucus with D’s while the Republicans only have 8 senators up for election (two considered vulnerable for flipping). It was always going to be a difficult election for the Democrats just based on those numbers. The general consensus was that the Republicans would pick up a few seats. Being able to take an R seat away in Alabama (which was considered totally impossible until the past month or so) helps the Democratic prospects for either keeping the Senate margin the same (taking over the Senate in 2018 still looks like a real stretch). But if the Democratic base stays energized, Trump and the Congressional Rs continue to pass unpopular legislation and do shitty things, and we get a couple more R candidates like Moore it is possible.
And just to reiterate, I don’t think anyone is saying not to put time, energy and resources into as many races as possible at the local, state, and national level (we really do need to do that)–it’s just the AL Senate special election is the only show in town for the next 3 weeks.
Emma
This is the problem. Every time a Democrat says or implies that losing one race makes it impossible to (whatever) we encourage low-info voters to stay home.
Never mind. Not important.
lamh36
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: But wait this is his latest ad—->>
Good for Doug Jones campaign. Win or Lose make Alabama Republican voters OWN IT!!
https://twitter.com/gdouglasjones/status/933391015725207553
TenguPhule
@zhena gogolia:
How much time do you have?
ruemara
@gene108:
Desperate folks have nothing to lose. Death is almost a sweet release from a life of desperation. These fools do not comprehend what benefits a stable, fair society have given them and how fast it can turn ugly if you destroy enough people’s lives.
TenguPhule
@Brachiator:
Actually I believe its the “But he’s not passing legislation, so its not as bad as it looks”.
Yutsano
@marcopolo: And if Bannon goes through with his threats to primary sufficiently disloyal Senators, things could get even more entertaining.
TenguPhule
@germy: Far too many “coulds” and “ifs” and “probablys” to take comfort in it.
Among other problems, it assumes Republicans would negotiate in good faith with Democrats.
Brachiator
@Ian G.:
Well, there’s this, for example: Horrifying LA Traffic Jam Once Again Creates Beautiful Holiday Light Display.
TenguPhule
@Corner Stone: Its not you.
TenguPhule
@LurkerNoLonger: We need 1 more pickup plus those two otherwise we lose any tie vote due to Pence.
marcopolo
So here’s a challenge to everyone in a voting situation like mine. My rep in the US House is Lacy Clay (MO1). This is as safe a D seat as you will find. My state house and senate seats are also safe D. So in 2018 when election season is in full swing I will be knocking on doors nearby in both MO2 and across the river in IL12 (which was D until 4 years ago). I will also will be working my ass off for Senator McCaskill, who is up for re-election and will get priority, but I hope to get to 250-500 doors (10-20 shifts) for the folks outside of my area. I am already planning my free time next fall around that.
My challenge is for BJ folks like me to commit to knocking 100 doors in the nearest competitive race to them–state or federal, whatever works for you. With the way demographics (and gerrymandering) have worked out, Democratic voters tend to be crowded together in urban and ring suburban areas. This is one way to spread our energy around a little further.
TenguPhule
@Brachiator:
Hope springs eternal in the human breast.
marcopolo
@Emma: Okay, I got it. Your nickname is Eyeore. Or Marvin if you prefer Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.
LurkerNoLonger
@TenguPhule: Thanks. Good point.
Ben Cisco
@the Conster: I saw some of that, they’ve got two talking points down – those 1100 seats!! AND the millions of those voters we have to win back (who are NEVER going to vote Dem unless the party jettisons all except the vaunted WWC).
My family’s from Alabama, and I have family and friends there still. The fight goes on.
Johnny Gentle (famous crooner)
Sorry if this is being “Eeyore,” but if feels like we’re only supposed to talk positively and clap louder instead of actually discussing the race. I think a 40% chance is too favorable for Jones.
1. Moore’s pedophilia was revealed a few weeks too early. It’s all but impossible to get tribal republicans to deviate, but shock is just about the only way to do it. By election day, Moore’s pedophilia will be baked in and less sensational.
2. Polls are worthless because republicans lie and hide. It goes to show how morally corrupt they are that so many of them will give one answer to a pollster, then reveal their true selves at the ballot box. All those “outraged” republicans in 2016 still voted for Trump. They’ll do the same for Moore when no one is looking (except God, but he totally understands).
3. Al Franken, John Conyers, etc. When republicans can throw up their hands and say, “Both sides do it,” it gives them just enough faux moral cover to vote for Moore. (That’s aside from those who don’t think sexual assault is even a big deal to begin with–it’s harmless, like locker-room talk but physical!)
4. The vague notion of expelling Moore. We all know that’d never happen. Like with outlawing bump stocks. Republicans know how to float a sound bite until the storm blows over. But they’d NEVER defy their base like that. Nonetheless, if any republicans are concerned about voting for Moore, they can convince themselves that very serious people in the Senate will fix it for them afterward.
Of course I donated to Jones and hope like hell that he wins. But anyone expecting republicans to suddenly discover a Bridge Too Far is going to be sorely disappointed, just like they were last November.
Captain C
@Ben Cisco: The people who push those talking points somehow never get around to talking about how they sat out the 2010 election because Obama didn’t give them all the ponies, and thus Rethugs were able to win many state legislatures and governorships and gerrymander the fuck out of both national and state districts. They also either aren’t aware of the massive voter suppression operations targeted against minorities, or they just don’t give a flying fuck because it doesn’t have anything to do with them.
Either of these points contradict the whole “racist whites who vote against their own economic self-interest will stop doing so if only they were explicitly offered full Soc!alism or Communism ” trope, so they must be ignored.
Stan
@Brachiator:
Way to stereotype. I know a grand total of two guys who played college football; both Ivy Leaguers; both great-grandsons of slaves. No lack of intellectual firepower there.
the Conster
@Captain C:
They’re idiots or they were 12, or they listened to the firebaggers and TYT/Greenwalds in 2010, cuz the reason why Dems lost all those seats was punishment for passing the ACA – at the height of birtherism and death panels and Obama the secret Muslim Kenyan born dictator was going to personally kill granny with the guns he took away from you. In a census year, our progressive betters decided to cut themselves and run away from home because Obama didn’t go all angry black dude on Republicans whose only mission was to deny him any success, then complained he sold them out after resurrecting the dead bill after the special election which gave the Senate Scott Brown, and relied on Joe Fucking Lieberman to save the day. Progressives are truly the worst because they pretend to be allies, but they’re the allies inside the tent who will frag you.
TenguPhule
@Johnny Gentle (famous crooner):
Welcome to Balloon Juice!
jonas
@rikyrah:
Donald Trump does not have a fucking clue who Doug Jones is. He just says that because accusing Democrats of coddling criminals was an applause line during his campaign rallies.
Marcopolo
@Johnny Gentle (famous crooner): Being realistic about AL Senate is not being Eeyore. And I agree with the general outlines of your comment here. Moore does still have an even or better chance of winning. The Eeyore comment was directed at the general negativity of the specific commenter. We can’t let pessimism get in the way of activism. That was the point I was trying to make.
Zinsky
Emma gets it right up thread. Democrats need to stop being obsessed with the person and be focused on the issues. We need a punchlist of issues that we will not back down on – universal, single-payer health insurance; a $15 minimum wage indexed to inflation: no commitment of troops overseas without explicit Congressional approval; a return to union representation in every workplace having > 25 employees: and so on. The Repukes don’t care who the candidate is (look at the walking pile of dog vomit in the Oval Office), as long as they push forward with their medieval and hurtful policies!
Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant)
@Captain C: Amen.
Johnny Gentle (famous crooner)
@TenguPhule: Ooh, I want to play! “It’s all just campaign theater…after all, he was a Democrat in the ’80s.”
Markk
I’m on SS and barely get by some months but gave $100 to Doug Jones last night. He should be flooded with cash today if Democrats would put their money where their mouth is. We have to win this and the eeyores need to give $ or STFU
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Not to be a pessimist. but it is Alabama. The fact that a child molester is competitive at all there says how stupid the whites are there. Jones is worth the money, but Moore winning will be no shock in an Idiotocracy like that state.
Uncle Ebeneezer
@rikyrah: L Joy Williams (Dem strategist/frequent TWiB guest) spoke about this on her Sunday Civics podcast, last week. She said that this Census fuckery is something that Dems and progressives need to start thinking about countering now, because we KNOW that this administration is going to try to undercount Black/Latinx populations in order to deprive them of power and resources. Unfortunately, she didn’t go into detail about what exactly we can do about it. If anyone knows or has some good links, I’d love to check them out.
Uncle Ebeneezer
@rikyrah: The Serwer/TNC articles have gotten me to the point where I am seriously considering purchasing this.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Johnny Gentle (famous crooner): All true statements,
But,
The Tribal Republicans might be so discourage they simply don’t vote and everyone else is so outraged they do. That’s worth a throw of the dice.
MuckJagger
Didn’t I see a poll recently that had Jones something like 12 points in front? This whole hoo-ha about Republicans saying he should drop out is just cover for the party faithful to portray Moore as a fighter who’ll put a boot up the arses of DC bureaucrats, or some such nonsense.
Fucking sickens me to see people falling over themselves to say it’s more important to put a fucking child molester in the senate than a Democrat.
DougJ
@Knight of Nothing:
Thank you