A range of outcomes are possible for the 2018 House elections. https://t.co/3BL5MlOz2J pic.twitter.com/5F1FLbqlYV
— G. Elliott Morris??♂️ (@gelliottmorris) December 22, 2017
If the U.S. House was decided proportionally to votes, Democrats would have a 97% chance of winning a majority next year.
Instead, since seats are gerrymandered and Democrats are clustered in cities, Democrats are only 59% (!) to win.. https://t.co/jSkahUl6Ci
— G. Elliott Morris??♂️ (@gelliottmorris) December 22, 2017
.
I predict most of us Democrats will quite happily work to improve that 59%!
.
What’s on the agenda for the weekend, as we count down towards the end of 2017?
Usual frame is Dems cluster. That’s wrong. Reality is Dems of all races will live where they’re the minority, white Repubs usually will not https://t.co/ZfaKj6AFjG
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 22, 2017
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’ll get excited in August and donate to swing left until then. But here’s a seat that should be targeted, among other FL from random twitter scanning
Suffragette City
Has the calendar for next year been posted yet? I’m not seeing any links for it.
and this guy is running for Paul Ryan’s seat.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/944380902179852289.html
Adam L Silverman
@Suffragette City: I pinged Cole about it earlier. He’s reached out to Beth.
Yarrow
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Rick Wilson, one of the Never Trumpers, lives in Florida and mentions on a regular basis the Puerto Ricans moving there and turning the state blue. He seems fairly plugged into FL politics, as is Ana Navarro, so I’d trust their take on it.
Adam L Silverman
@Suffragette City: Iron Stache is going to hit him with a girder.
Yarrow
@Adam L Silverman: Iron Stache is awesome.
Adam L Silverman
@Yarrow: I’ve mentioned it here several times.
lamh36
Agenda for the weekend…WORK…everyone may have a 4-5 day weekend…I’ll be working through Christmas and the day after..ugh…
I am off for New Year’s though…so I’ll at least have a 3-4 day weekend next weekend.
Might do a NON-POLITICAL year in review on my blog after Christmas I think..
Sneak peek, first up: my fav actor this year…he makes this nerdy chick’s heart go aflutter…JEFF muthapluckn’ GOLDBLUM
#YEARINREVIEW2017
Adam L Silverman
@Yarrow: The woman running against him in the primary isn’t chopped liver either.
debbie
I hope Ana keeps a very sharp eye out for voting shenanigans.
Yarrow
Not really surprising.
Jeffro
We are going to CRUSH them in November (and dare I say, also hear the lamentations of their women?)
Pneumonia recovery = going well
Knocked out another book these past two days, “Mr. Penumbra’s 24-hour Book Store”, by Robin Sloan. Great, fun read. I thought out an even cooler ending in mind afterwards as well (always fun playing ‘Outdo The Author’ ?)
Got to see the home team win a basketball thriller tonight as well, and now I’m going to get started on Khzir Khan’s “An American Family”.
Tomorrow – grocery shopping, wrapping presents, and maybe some tacos? Just what the doctor ordered!
Dave
I got a response from my congressman, Keith Rothfus (R-PA-12), to a letter asking him to stand against his party on net neutrality. Instead, it’s exactly what you’d expect. He lays out the history, goes long on detail, until he gets to the part where the FCC classified ISPs as common carriers. Then it’s basically just “according to Ajit Pai, this regulation made everything horrible”. I’m responding back, trying to politely tell him that he’s full of it and he knows it, pointing out the fundamental contradictions even within a fairly simple reply to a constituent. But it’s unsatisfying. This district is R+11 and not really competitive in recent years. It’d take a hell of a wave to get rid of the squinty-eyed little fucker. I can’t imagine anyone at his office will react to my reply, but I suppose letting him know I’m out here can’t hurt.
Steeplejack
** (Early) DVR Alert **
The Cartoon Network is running a mini-marathon of the first 11 episodes of Cowboy Bebop (1998–99) starting at 10:30 p.m. EST Saturday. Highly recommended! (Even if you don’t think you like anime.) Groundbreaking series (26 half-hour episodes) with surprising emotional depth and a killer soundtrack.
Trailer here. Other stuff and some episodes available on YouTube for those who are interested.
Corner Stone
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: All of the NeverTrump “Conservatives” raised hell when Curbelo was not admitted to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
Makes one wonder, eh?
Suffragette City
@Adam L Silverman:
Thanks..was wondering if I missed something about it!
And Iron Stache is awesome!
mike in dc
With a large enough generic margin, and strong challengers fielded in as many districts as possible, with strong financial support, a 50+ seat pickup and Senate flip seems possible. 10 months is a long time, so hope we make the most of it. They’re going to throw a lot of bs at our candidates between now and then.
Yarrow
@Dave: R +11 isn’t that bad in a D+18 year. Does he have a challenger?
efgoldman
Duh! One guy will get more votes and will win maybe. Way to go, Carnac.
[And it’s “a range…. is.…]
Sorry. I very rarely get pedantic, being perfect as I am, but that has always made me crazy, since I had to write it several hundred times for my eighth grade English teacher.
Mnemosyne
Between my injured knee and the ongoing wildfires in Santa Barbara county, we had to cancel our weekend away and will instead have a very Icelandic Christmas weekend of books, classic movies, and chocolate. I got some chicken tamales and I’m thinking about making some beef stew in the crockpot. Gifts are purchased and sent, and I just need to buy gift cards for my teenaged niece and nephew who are local.
And we’re going to go see The Last Jedi again next week because we loved it so much. Suck it, haters.
Another Scott
This is great, but let’s remember that these predictions are based upon things that don’t always come to pass. Median: Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV. Meta-Margin: 2.2%. One-sigma range: Clinton 281-326 EV. The win probability is 93% using the revised assumption of polling error, +/- 1.1%.
We have to continue to work and fight for the future we want to see. It’s not going to happen otherwise.
We cannot take anything for granted, no matter how compelling the math might appear.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Yarrow: He’s lucky she didn’t haul off on him. She’s quite fit.
Major Major Major Major
Well, I finally made it to the end of the work year. I use ‘work’ loosely, as you may know there was little of it to go around at the office for some stretches. This week included, but that wasn’t abnormal since we don’t introduce features this time of year and don’t get a lot of support requests either.
I wrote 1,500 words on my short story today, so I’m pretty close to finishing the first draft, which is great. Tomorrow I see the in-laws and then Monday it’s off to London-town (as they call it in London).
I also just finished drawing the ink on the Christmas special for my comic, which features a very nice Krampus sweater.
Adam L Silverman
@Suffragette City: I got an email about it late yesterday evening, from (I think?) a different reader/commenter. Saw it this AM. Pinged Cole. He’s following up.
Major Major Major Major
@Another Scott: Silver ended up having the least-wrong model, Wang’s state-only approach couldn’t even begin to account for the Comey letter.
Cheryl Rofer
James Comey just tweeted his 39th tweet:
Mnemosyne
@Major Major Major Major:
I was hoping to take all of next week off, but I have to go in for a couple of hours to work on a project my boss forgot about. Oh well. Overall she’s a good boss, and I have a short commute, so it’s not the end of the world.
Major Major Major Major
@Suffragette City:
ho-leeeee-shit.
Ruckus
@Mnemosyne:
Friend of my boss works at the GEC but not in your location, he works on, shall we say the touchy, feely side of the shop. Had xmas lunch yesterday, he attended and seems to be rather busy. Says he likes working there.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
Hey, Tom Levenson, you there? Did you hear the Science Friday segment on the best science books of ’17? I asked for your book for Christmas (The Hunt for Vulcan).
Major Major Major Major
@Ruckus:
Did Disney buy the kink.com armory or something?
Mnemosyne
@Major Major Major Major:
Holy fuck. I’d like to think that Wisconsin wouldn’t elect an out and proud Nazi, but who the fuck knows anymore? ?
jl
@Another Scott:
” We cannot take anything for granted, no matter how compelling the math might appear. ”
That is true. I agree completely.
I think the polls for midterms will be more accurate, though. For the national vote the 2016 polls were accurate for the national popular vote. Clinton did win close to predicted margin and beat Trump by almost 3 million votes. Where the predictions went wrong was trying to predict the electoral college vote, which depended on just a few winner-take-all swing state elections. An some of those states did not have good state polling. So, a small numbers problem with poor information.
I think polling will more reliable for outcome of House races for example. And so far Democratic turnout seems energized and GOP turnout much lower than expected. So, we need to steer a middle course that doesn’t over shoot into overconfidence or into defeatism, but aims for a healthy enthusiasm that gets people motivated to get out and work for candidates and vote.
Mnemosyne
@Ruckus:
I like it. It’s a good division, even though the guy who got abruptly sent off on sabbatical was a little too-hands on, in all senses of the word.
Dave
@Yarrow: A few so far with not-insignificant financing, per Ballotpedia. The folks who’ve run since Altmire lost have been…less than stellar, so maybe next year will be better. It’s funny – I want to pick one to support and throw my weight behind them, but I also flat-out don’t care. I’d be enthusiastic about basically anyone who says they want to replace Rothfus at this point. But I really ought to get more involved than I have in past years.
tobie
@Cheryl Rofer: This must be very recent news. Rachel Maddow mentioned that Baker has been reassigned by Christopher Wray but I guess reassignment for someone in such high a position ends up meaning being kicked out. Wray has not been defending his agency, and he’s been doing the Rs bidding when it comes demoting people involved in the Trump investigation. In short, he’s behaving like a partisan Republican. Why didn’t the Democrats raise any questions about him when he was nominated?
Mary G
I once considered myself the least likely person on earth to read Teen Vogue, but Lauren Duca has proven me wrong. Her latest column is about burning out, taking a break, and getting back to it, which I needed, because the tax vote really got me down this week.
SiubhanDuinne
@tobie:
Here’s some background.
Assuming this reporting is accurate, it seems to me that Trump is providing all kinds of grist for Mueller’s obstruction-of-justice mill. I mean, even beyond the obstruction he’s already demonstrated.
Adam L Silverman
@tobie: They did. But they had no way to stop the appointment. As too Baker – from what I’ve read the accusation is garbage and the reassignment is the result of a leaked insinuation from Congressional Republicans that Baker was in contact with David Corn, and therefore was Corn’s source on the Steele Dossier article, in the summer and fall of 2016. Corn has made it very clear this is not the case. Allegedly there is electronic correspondence between them. If Corn is telling the truth, and there’s no reason not to believe him, then once the email or texts that the Congressional GOPer claims to have is reviewed, Baker will be cleared. Unfortunately he’s not likely to go back to being the general counsel.
As for Comey’s remarks. He’s the only past director currently able to speak out credibly in support of the Bureau and its personnel. Mueller, his predecessor, can’t as he’s currently the Special Counsel. Freeh won’t. And the current director said the right things before the House a week ago, but that’s about it. So that’s why Comey is doing what he’s doing. Holder has also stood up for the Bureau and DOJ given that Sessions won’t.
As I’ve stated over and over and over since 2016: going to war with the Intelligence Community is a really bad idea. Going to war with the FBI, outside of the portions that are doing intel work, is an equally really bad idea.
bmoak
@Steeplejack:
I’ve got the soundtrack CD signed by composer Yoko Kanno, so I claim all the nerd points for this thread.
frosty
@Dave:
Sigh. Mine in PA is the same. I never thought I’d pine for Todd Platts.
Schlemazel
@Adam L Silverman:
I know an FBI agent and two ICE agents. All 3 are right-wing assholes who voted for Dump. The ICE guys are still high as kites because he “unchained” them. The FBI guy will not talk to me anymore. At all. I think he is having a crisis. That makes me happy in a way the Germans have a word for. I hope there are thousands more who are finally waking up to what the GOP does to them
frosty
@Mnemosyne: Sounds like fun (other than the knee pain). Maybe we’ll get out for TLJ this weekend. Oh, and I found out younger spawn and I both ordered the same present for older spawn. So it’s off to Best Buy tomorrow.
ETA: It didn’t occur to me until after I hit SEND. Can I call them spawn if they’re adopted? I need another word.
Gravenstone
@Steeplejack: See you space cowboy
Adam L Silverman
@Schlemazel: The FBI special agents tend to be whiter, more Roman Catholic, more conservative, and better educated than most. The average ICE officer tends to be someone who is less well educated, though as, if not more conservative, than the FBI special agents. I had a former student who was a US Army Reserve colonel and an ICE deputy supervisory special agent in charge. He asked me to do an inservice for his field office at one point on how to do engagements and leverage cultural information and considerations. He loved it. The other two deputy SSACs liked it. The Supervisory Special Agent in Charge was very happy with it. The public affairs folks in the office liked it and were quite engaged. The actual ICE officers were meh, didn’t really get it, but were well behaved enough because they got free bagels, donuts, danish, and coffee. They weren’t rude. They weren’t dumb. It just wasn’t something that mattered to them. And this was back in 2012. There was a measurable difference in education and socio-economic class between the SSAC and DSACCs and the actual officers.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Adam L Silverman: that Giuliani crony who runs the FBI agents group issued a statement the other day, it was a bit sharper than I would’ve expected from him
Omnes Omnibus
@frosty: Legally, yes. They are your kids? Then they are your kids.
frosty
@Mary G: That was really good — first time I read Teen Vogue. I may have to bookmark it. Reminds me of this:
The year is 2017. America is a tire fire. The resistance is led by Teen Vogue, Badlands National Park, and the Merriam-Webster dictionary
Schlemazel
@Adam L Silverman:
Well in my tiny sample size the FBI guy is better educated & a whole lot more sophisticated than either ICE guy.
frosty
@Omnes Omnibus: Kids yes, absolutely, love ’em to death. Spawn has connotations of genetics to me. Which has nothing to do with family, of course. Perhaps my connotations are wrong?
Mnemosyne
@frosty:
Meh. Nobody’s going to demand a DNA test in a comments section. If you’re raising them, they’re your spawn regardless of who the egg and sperm donors were.
frosty
Looks like my connotations are wrong. Spawn it is!
Ruckus
@Mnemosyne:
Can’t we all just get along………
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Major Major Major Major:
Cool building.
Omnes Omnibus
@frosty: They are your kids. End of story. At worst, maybe you can’t give an organ. Outside of the that, fuck people who said there is a difference.
Steve in the ATL
@Adam L Silverman: @Schlemazel: ICE is a prole job; FBI is respectable, with the exception of the NY field office
Adam L Silverman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: He’s got himself sideways to all of this. You’ll notice that until that press release you’d heard nothing from him and Giuliani. The reason for it is that the NY Field Office is tied to the Russian/former Soviet states mob in the NY area the way the Boston Field Office was with Whitey Bulger and the Irish mob. The FEEBs think they’re running the bad guys, but the reality is the mob is running them. And given that Giuliani and Kallstrom were the conduits for leaks about Secretary Clinton that resulted from the hacks, as well as what the NY Field Office was doing, which was far outside what Comey wanted them to do, they’re in trouble. Comey announced in March during Senate testimony that he’d opened an investigation into the NY Field Office, which means he was also looking at Giuliani and Kallstrom. Mueller inherited that. Combine that with both the counterintelligence investigation that Mueller inherited and Comey’s testimony that the Russians had built a disinformation electronic correspondence document that he felt forced him to do the OCT letter, and both Giuliani and Kallstrom are in a lot of trouble.
Adam L Silverman
@Schlemazel: I would argue we wouldn’t even need a fancy factor analysis to extrapolate to the entire population of either group from your small sample.
Omnes Omnibus
@Steve in the ATL: Respectable if you are ethnic. You know what I mean.
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
People who are directly related often are not compatable for organ donation.
Other than that I like your sentiment.
Any crap about superiority of one race or the other, one gender or another, one child or another, one religion or another, it is all unmitigated fucking bullshit.
Adam L Silverman
@Steve in the ATL: That’s what I said!
Yarrow
@Adam L Silverman:
Yep. Giuliani has been so quiet. Very unusual for him. There’s a reason for that.
Mnemosyne
@Adam L Silverman:
Adam Schiff is not unfamiliar with the Russian mob. The district that Schiff represents has some Russian and Armenian mob activity, as anyone who lives around here (like me) can tell you.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ruckus: Hey, we have butted heads recently a few times. I don’t always agree with you all of the time. I do respect you as a commenter. I get sentimental around this time of year, so I just want to say that I wish you well and “Happy Holidays” whatever you think about the season.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Mnemosyne: Yup.
ETA: Also, Schiff is a former prosecutor.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Omnes Omnibus: It’s OK to say Merry Christmas now.
Omnes Omnibus
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I do “Happy Holidays” on principle. I have non-Christian friends.
Yarrow
@?BillinGlendaleCA: LOL. Made me laugh.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I can’t find it now, but some super pac has an ad out of a little girl thanking trump for letting her say Merry Christmas again.
Millard Filmore
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Hey! We won the war on Christmas. You HAVE to say Merry Christmas now.
SiubhanDuinne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
It’s an entire, Pyongyang-worthy 30-second spot, of which the little girl is just one of many adoring Trumpkins.
https://youtu.be/Rv8r0h4tNaU
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
Right back atcha.
I fixed the phrase long ago.
Merry Fucking Christmas.
Fits my usual mood, isn’t in the least religious, pisses off the religious people who demand that we all fit their version of whatever, while they get to be total douche bags. It goes along with a cartoon I used to have on my tool box.
Outside a bird in a window chirping away, inside a poem of sorts.
I arose this morning to the sound of a bird chirping at my window.
I opened the window so that I could….
Crush his fucking head and go back to sleep.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ruckus: Um, so we are good? And have happy holidays anyway.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@SiubhanDuinne: thanks, I don’t think I can bring myself to watch it
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
Sure.
Actually always were.
And I’m going to try.
Zinsky
@Adam L Silverman: I have already given $100 to Randy Bryce, and I will likely give several hundred more to defeat the smarmy Paul Ryan. We need to drive that shameful, rat-like human being out of Congress and look for every opportunity to prosecute this criminal for financial crimes or other misdeeds he committed while Speaker of the House, of which they are legion. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see this Eddie Munster look-alike marched off to prison.
chopper
@Cheryl Rofer:
somewhere hilz’s middle finger is twitching madly.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
I assume this comes with the usual disclaimer these odds are based on passed voting patterns. And this time is different, but like with Alabama, well worth taking the chance.
Uncle Cosmo
@Omnes Omnibus: Bangalore! My traditional well-wishing is Whatever winter-solstice holiday you choose to celebrate, have a happy one! And when some whackjob Xtian insists on “Merry Christmas,” I reply, Are you aware that all Biblical scholarship indicates that Jesus of Nazareth was born in springtime? But hey, if you want to observe his birthday on December 25, go for it.