Yesterday, there were some polls–from NPR/Marist, NBC/WSJ, and Gallup–that had some folks here concerned. According to their data, over the last week, GOP approval has increased, as has GOP voter enthusiasm, to the point where both measures roughly equal the numbers for Democrats. These are real numbers, worthy of the same consideration we give any trend-busting single data points, namely, some, and with cautious skepticism.
They also aren’t the only polls in the world. Nate Silver has a good piece walking us through the bigger picture.
From a 35,000-foot view, the story in the generic ballot numbers is largely one of stability.1[…] Trump’s approval ratings have largely followed the same trajectory as the generic ballot, having slumped in early-to-mid September and since rebounded slightly. It’s not clear how much of that is Kavanaugh-related, however, as the president was dealing with a lot of other news in August and early September[…] Merely staying out of the headlines while Kavanaugh was the lead story may have helped Trump’s numbers revert to the mean.
The 538 model’s numbers are also largely unchanged, except in the Senate, where Republican chances have improved somewhat. This is based largely on new polls on Heitkamp’s re-election bid in North Dakota. Who knows why! That’s not what the polls measure!
Is the enthusiasm gap closing? Maybe a little?
But one hint comes from polls that publish both registered- and likely-voter results; the difference between these numbers is a good measure of the enthusiasm gap or turnout gap. Currently, we’re showing that likely voter polls are only about 0.4 percentage better for Republicans than registered-voter polls. That’s much smaller than the typical gap between likely- and registered-voter polls, which usually favors Republicans by anywhere from 1 to 6 percentage points in midterm years[…] It is, however, slightly improved for Republicans from the numbers we were seeing earlier this year, when there wasn’t any gap at all.
If it is closing, then by this measure, it’s not doing so by a lot. Certainly it’s not reverting to a normal year.
Overall, I’m inclined to conclude there’s actually something there for Republicans — that their position has genuinely improved from where it was a week ago (although, not necessarily as compared to where it was a monthago). But[…] it wouldn’t take much — a couple of good generic ballot polls for Democrats, plus a handful of good state-level results in places like North Dakota — to reverse the GOP gains in our forecast. There is truth in the idea that Republicans have had a decent week of polling, but it can also be exaggerated by cherry-picking data that’s consistent with a particular narrative.
In short:
…vote!
Certified Mutant Enemy
I’ll panic if I want.
ruemara
Panic is a democratic specialty.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Republicans always “come home” as the saying was in 2016, especially in midterms. And any voters motivated by the notion that men, especially white men, especially rich white men, are the ones really getting the shaft these days, those people were already ordering extra MAGAt schwag to wear to the polls. Nothing’s a given, but the key to these elections is the same as it was a month ago, getting demographics who usually don’t vote in midterms to do so.
Garbo
Those hateful, racist, sexist goblins will be out in force. I refuse to repeat the horror of 11/9/16. Move your asses as if we’re 10 points down everywhere. We can’t be over prepared.
NotMax
Polls always – always – tighten during the month before.
Don’t panic. Actuate, mobilize, make a noise, stay on target.
Roger Moore
If you’re going to panic, at least panic productively, e.g. by volunteering, donating, etc.
MazeDancer
Don’t get mad, spam the threads.
Sorry for repeat, but am so heart-sick, can’t watch TV. Can’t go on Twitter.
So – Write PostCards!
Using fuzzy statistics, taking a proven response rate of .04 of increased turnout for hand-written, personal PostCards, decided to go with 25 PostCards=1 More Vote.
$35.00 = 100 PostCards = 4 Votes.
Please everyone, write some PostCards. Canvas. Both. Something.
PostCardPatriots.com
AliceBlue
Thanks M4. I read this a few minutes ago and was hoping a front pager would highlight it.
jacy
It stuns me, although it shouldn’t, that the majority of people don’t understand polling (and more specifically, don’t understand statistics, or more accurately, utterly misunderstand statistics.) And adjunct to that, people discount narrative. It’s fun narrative for the media to tell Democrats to worry. Not sure why exactly, but there are probably lots of reasons. But you will notice that the media narrative is, more often than not, that everything is secretly good Republicans and Democrats are always in disarray. Lean back and look it. They just keep saying it, no matter what the subject.
It’s helpful to remember to NEVER look at a single poll. You can broadly look at trends, but the minutia of each poll (what it covers, who it asked, how it weights) is too complex for almost everyone to be able to put any poll into perspective. I’m pretty innumerate for somebody with a hard science education. I have trouble conceptualizing math-based problems. But what I can do it find people who I trust, who have a good track record and solid methods, and trust them to explain to me what I don’t understand. Say what you will about Nate Silver, I think he’s good with statistical analysis. 538 shows that things are pretty boring and steady and have been for some time. The fundamentals favor Democrats. We all know what we can do to swing things our way: canvass, donate, register, vote, get other people to vote. Freaking out about a few polls serves no good purpose. (And remember polls are only probabilities — they are not fact, even when they’re well done.)
guachi
On the DO PANIC front, the Senate had some movement towards Republicans by prognosticators. Net movement was about one seat. So instead of Dems gaining one seat on average it’s looking to be a push.
The net result is that it’s now much less likely the Democrats get to 51 votes in the Senate. Though it was always a long shot.
Major Major Major Major
@guachi: the movement looks to be all heitkamp—quirky single races affecting chamber ownership being of course a senate specialty.
Gravenstone
Always worth a reminder that the number of people identifying as Republican is ever diminishing. So yes they may be making absolute gains within that self identified cohort, but the relative numbers remain unfavorable for them.
PS: once again getting the apparent option to edit the most recent post as I write this comment. I know the editor in this kludge job is finicky as all hell, but the gremlins are showing.
SiubhanDuinne
I’m not panicking but I’ll admit to being concerned.
(ETA: Holy Alain, we have us our edit function back!! Happy happy joy joy!)
Just finished making a string of Senatorial phone calls: Sasse, Flake, Manchin, Murkowski, Collins. I got through to at least voicemail and once or twice to an actual person. In every case, I said upfront that I am not one of their constituents but that I am a citizen of the United States of America and I am calling them in their capacity as United States senators who are about to vote on a nomination that will affect every person in this country.
Then I called both Georgia and DC offices of my two hopeless Senators. Told the interns I didn’t really think my call would change Isakson’s/Perdue’s mind, but that it was my obligation as a citizen to go on the record.
(I was exceedingly polite. Y’all wouldn’t have known me.)
And now, I’m off to do some phone banking for Stacey Abrams for a couple of hours ?
zzyzx
@guachi: I was never expecting a Senate flip. I’m just glad it won’t be a bloodbath.
Mnemosyne
This is not a response to anyone who has already responded, just a general comment:
Seriously, people, if your reaction to generic polling a month away from the election is to decide that all is lost and we should just give up, you can go fuck yourselves.
These polls should be a wake-up call to redouble our efforts to keep things on track, not to decide a month before the election that there’s no point in continuing to fight.
One of the biggest things that helps prevent election fuckery is a large turnout. It’s way harder to try and mess with a large volume of votes because it increases the odds that you’ll get caught. Turning out as many voters as possible actually helps protect us from meddling.
Emerald
I actually wonder if the pollsters know who to call this year. They can’t go by their normal models; this is not a normal year.
I remain quite convinced that we’ll get a blue tsunami especially after Special K gets onto the Court, but I’m pessimistic about the power the Rs have gained for the short term. This SCOTUS move allows them to re-institute Jim Crow. Brave people overcame that before and can do it again (although it will be much more difficult with the bothsiderism media), but the complete abrogation of the Constitution from one political party makes me think that major change is gonna have to come.
I’m massively worried about the media, which I think has been compromised for a long time. That and the SCOTUS is a hellavua lot to fight.
I hope we win in my lifetime. I’m 67. Pull out all the stops for 2020 because if we don’t take both houses and the WH then, we’re looking at a decades-long battle just to get the republic back.
Yeah, I’m getting to about the same level of depression as Cole.
different-church-lady
@jacy:
japa21
There is one other very important thing to remember about polls. None of the pollsters have any real idea of what the electorate is going to look like this November. Will the youth vote materialize more than usual? Will the Hispanic vote be higher than normal? Will more women come out to vote than normal (although they are usually the most dependable)?
If all three of the above happen, Dems will win big. If none or maybe only one happen, then the Dems will win little. Dems will lose the ND senate seat. That will probably be the only one they lose. They have very good chances to gain in NV, AZ, TN. Possibly TX.
They are going to take over several state governorships, which is really important. Possibly pick up a few state legislatures.
But again, just what the makeup of the electorate is in November is what will determine the final outcomes.
Mnemosyne
Also, too, keep in mind that, in all of the special elections that Democrats have been winning, turnout was up on the Republican side. What made the difference was that Democratic turnout was EVEN HIGHER.
The deplorables are going to be out in force, but there are more of us than there are of them IF WE BOTHER TO SHOW UP.
Jeffro
Let’s all step it up a bit – we’re in the home stretch! Let’s make them pay for BK and every other disgusting thing they’ve done.
On another note, this is kinda funny: “conservatives” want to strip Jennifer Rubin of her actual conservative bona fides. Let that be a lesson to all StandUp Republic-ans and #NeverTrump conservatives – the GOP is the Trumpublican party now. No going back. Time to join with us and work hard to retake the country or else we’re done.
They can’t have any public opposition from within their party, nope: fealty to Trumpov above all.
Everything has to be turned into a partisan food fight*, after all, and if a conservative hates on a “conservative”, that spoils the narrative – makes one question what that “conservative” could be doing to piss off the conservative so thoroughly.
*”both sides” as a way to keep on wrecking the country
Major Major Major Major
@Gravenstone: well, that’s what likely voter models try to adjust for.
smintheus
A basic truth about polls: The numbers you get depend on who answers your questions…and who doesn’t (much more numerous than those who do respond).
When the most extremist Republicans are agitated by something like an obvious GOP liar/drunk/bully/rapist getting outed, they’re the ones who are more likely to answer pollster’s questions. They’re also much more likely to try to use their answers to send a message that *they’re angry*. Meanwhile, semi-reasonable Republicans are more likely to refuse to talk to pollsters because they’re embarrassed by their liar/drunk/bully/rapist. They’re also more likely to identify themselves as independents.
So did support for the liar/drunk/bully/rapist just jump among Republicans? Or was it instead the artifact of an increased disgust at the liar/drunk/bully/rapist?
Public opinion polls don’t reveal what proportion people contacted refused to respond. That number, if it changes dramatically, could be the most telling information they have. But to release it is to give the game away: the poll numbers they’re reporting are an epiphenomenon, whereas the response rate is the thing they’re actually measuring.
Jeffro
@Jeffro: Btw if you read the letter in question…check out those signatories, hoo boy! Ginni Thomas! Gary Bauer! William Boykin! Michelle Malkin! Jim DeMint! Somebody lend me a hand grenade!
And note how they equate being against Trumpov’s policies as being against conservatism. Game, set, match, Trumpublicans. He owns your asses now…
jl
When I talk with sane friends and family who would vote the sane way, but sometimes or often sit out elections, I am emphasizing the element of self-expression, gratification, at being able to express their outrage and horror at what is going on. And if they are too old and not rich enough, or young, or don’t look exactly like the typical Trump voter, this might be their last chance.
Need a balance between caution and enthusiasm. The need to win as a motivating factor can work two ways, if news comes out that the chances of a win dip even a little below what was previously expected, can reduce turnout. Other motivating factors, can stay the course no matter what.
Think of all appeals and reasons that will motivate sane people to get out to vote no matter WTF some new poll or pundit says. Need to go beyond pure rationality of reaching a goal or getting a win. Some of it is the mystery of human psychology. There is the voting paradox. Each individual’s vote usually means very little, but need to get people charged up to vote despite that statistical fact.
Ramiah Ariya
When Trump’s bad actions are at the forefront, Republicans lose votes; but in the last month or so, with not much Russia news, it appears that Trump is not at the front of the news. Instead a narrative has developed, that the Democrats are performing shenanigans so as to avoid Kavanaugh’s seating. That looks bad for independents; and it makes Republicans feel better voting Republican. As long as Trump keeps his mouth shut, and gets Kavanaugh through, Republicans can repel a blue wave, I think. It is a disaster if they did, but republican leaders are graded on a curve.
MazeDancer
@Mnemosyne:
Not heart-sick because of polls. Just punched in the gut with the FBI cover-up, Flake flaking, and Collins deciding she wants to destroy her legacy.
The up, down, all around is a bit triggering for someone long, long, long out of therapy. I can’t imagine how all the women who came forward for the first time these past weeks feel.
The minute they swear in Kavanaugh expect to see both polls and fund-raising skyrocket.
NotMax
@Emerald
Dejection is understandable. Depression illicitly confers upon them an agency over you.
trollhattan
The early October 2016 polls had me planning my inauguration party. So there’s that.
JMG
The election is a month away. Kavanaugh is going to be confirmed Saturday. His usefulness as a rallying cry will be over. American voters are ungrateful and have incredibly short memories. That’s bipartisan by the way, see: Democrats in 2010.
smintheus
Btw, is this getting the attention it deserves?
Proves what should have been obvious, Kavanaugh is by nature a bully and a coward.
MazeDancer
@japa21:
And who answers their phone anymore?
I am landline only and, thus, a sitting duck for pollsters. And I used to answer out of some kind of civic duty motive.
Not anymore. The polls are all dreadfully written. And they want to keep you online for 10 to 20 minutes.
Plus, if you won’t sit through every response to every question, they can’t use you. So no “Yes, Enthusiastic” the minute they say it. You have to listen to all 4 options every time.
Polling has to catch up with behavior.
Major Major Major Major
@trollhattan: the early October 2016 polls were largely correct. State-level polling missed the late Comey break because state-level polling lags, and the upper Midwest models were slightly off.
smintheus
@Ramiah Ariya: The narrative of which you speak is one that is being promulgated by Republicans. As always when Republicans express concern about the damage that Democrats are doing to themselves by beating up on Republicans, one should first ask why the GOP is so eager to persuade Democrats to stop doing what supposedly is to the disadvantage of Democrats.
BC in Illinois
Things can change. Progress can be made. Our Missouri primary was August. My candidate for congress [against the execrable Ann Wagner (R – safe Republican vote)] didn’t win, but I was able to say good things about the man who did win. (My candidate did the same, endorsing his former opponent quickly and publicly.)
In September, I began to include pro-Cort VanOstran comments in various places on line. It’s now October. I have a Cort for Congress sign in my yard and have sent ActBlue money in his direction. (He was my third choice, but for the next month, he’s number one in my book.)
I’m still doing and contributing more to Claire McCaskill’s campaign (and to Moms Demand Action events — again tonight), but I don’t see the enthusiasm and urgency on the part of the Democrats letting up at all. At least here, we’re working together.**
**(With some disagreement about whether chaining yourself to Roy Blunt’s local office door is a helpful thing to do . . . )
JMG
The real time polls the NYT’s Upshot section are doing with Siena show the polling problem in a nutshell. They have gotten a response rate to their calls of less than one percent. With caller ID, nobody answers their phone if they don’t recognize at least the area code.
Mnemosyne
@MazeDancer:
It’s okay to feel punched in the gut. I’m feeling that way, too, right now. But laying down and letting the Republicans walk over us is going to make us feel worse in the long run, not better.
If you can’t watch the news, write postcards. Taking positive action will make you feel better.
TenguPhule
What I now hate most about the Kav vote is that only the squishy Republicans are getting air time about not being sure about voting for the Drunken Sex Offender.
COMPLETELY LEAVING OUT ALL THE NAMES OF THE CONFIRMED GOP SENATORS VOTING FOR SAID SEX OFFENDER.
Make them known. Make them hated. Make them pay.
Josie
Katie Tur just reported on MSNBC that Heitkamp will vote no.
jacy
MSNBC reporting Heitkamp is a NO on Kavanaugh.
jl
Thought came to my mind that social engineering that instills a sense of ‘learned helplessness’ in the minds of us lesser people is an important tool that our corporate, rich and powerful political masters wield on a regular basis. To sell us useless shit and scams, to not show up at local government meetings, to stay home and not vote. I have to wonder how that interacts with the bogus scientism that we often see spouted by data driven pundits and reporters. I’m not talking so much about the pollsters themselves, but statistical fraudsters like Todd and pundits.
Need a balance between goal oriented utility maximizing rational behavior, and the nervous and minute calculations involved in estimating the odds of a win, and other factors. The ferocious joy of human agency and self expression has a role. Solidarity with your fellow lesser people being screwed over has a role.. Maybe throw some voting parties. Get a free BEER, or coffee, and pastry of you show up with a “I voted” sticker.
There is a quote, that I’ve been looking for but can’t find right now, from the mathematician Carl Friedrich Gauss that mathematics was part of life, not the other way around, And reducing life to optimization and achieving goals destroyed the beauty of life. I think he said that when he was in debates saving the German pension system, and was pushing back at stingy politicians. And Gauss was kind of an asshole in many ways, so if even he could see that, so should we.
HeleninEire
OK. So listen. I am NOT going to do this, FBI or whoever the fuck is in charge of this. But I am exhausted with this shit. I am tired of our side being the good guys and following the rules.
I just checked, and it turns out that I am still registered to vote in my home state. I will be there on November 6th. So I can vote. It is a very blue State so my vote “won’t matter” (careful with that phrase).
So theoretically if I were a lawbreaker, and I used to live in a red state, WHICH I AM NOT AND I DID NOT, I might think about voting. Illegally.
Yeah.
TenguPhule
@JMG:
You are wrong. Confirming him would lead to a “FUCK YOUR METOO” movement as angry Republicans demand that the Democratic resistance to Kavanaugh be punished. Giving them what they want at the moment will never satisfy them because they will want more. Its what they are.
BlueGirlFromWyo
@Mnemosyne: Ding! Ding! Ding! The 2017 VA GOP candidate got the second highest vote total ever recorded in Virginia history. The 2017 Dem governor-elect got the highest vote total ever recorded in Virginia history. Fucking fight.
Jeffro
I’m remembering how they were going to vote to repeal Obamacare…until they didn’t, by one vote.
I’m also remembering that Manafort wasn’t going to cut a deal with Mueller…until he did.
stand up Stand Up STAND UP to this creature, this corrupter of all that he touches, Senators. #NominateSomeOtherWingnut. Your country is on the line here.
TenguPhule
@HeleninEire:
I’m sorry, but that’s just sad. Risks completely outweigh any potential benefits.
TenguPhule
@Jeffro:
This time McCain is dead.
Emerald
@jacy:
GOOD FOR HER! She’s going to lose anyway. Does she really want to vote for the Justice who will overturn marriage rights as soon as possible?
She’s a hero!
SOME good news today, anyway!
jacy
@JMG:
I think that’s the single silver-lining of a Kavanaugh confirmation. It effectively removes him from the Republican game board. From what I can tell, Democrats will remember it with a vengeance, and Republicans will not. Their anger is pro forma and knee jerk, while ours is genuine.
Successful edit — whoohoo!
TenguPhule
@jacy:
Finally some good news. Now if Manchin can only get a clue from his wiser female colleague.
HeleninEire
@TenguPhule: I do not have a clue what your answer means. Whose risks? Whose benefits?
Major Major Major Major
@JMG: There may be an existential problem with polling, but we don’t have nearly enough evidence to say there is.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ramiah Ariya: What shenanigans are Democrats performing?
Mnemosyne
Also, I think Damon Young is speaking for a lot of us right now:
I Just Want These Raggedy Shitstains To Lose
Brachiator
True dat. Also, people need to stop treating polls as though they were prophecy.
We’re in election season now. Support the candidates of your choice, support registration and “get out the vote” efforts. Nothing will happen until people make it happen.
japa21
@Emerald: It may actually help her. Whether or not it will be enough is hard to say. I wonder if they have done some polling in the state regarding this. And I have a hunch Manchin will be a no. Long shot to see if two GOPers have the guts (we know they don’t have the integrity) to vote no.
R-Jud
I was pleased that when I first saw this post, it had 42 comments.
Carry on with the freak out. Going to a Dems Abroad thing next weekend to do some postcards.
jl
@Brachiator: Exactly right. No poll predicting a win is any kind of fact. It is at best a crappy sample of the population, that has to go into a crappy model of who will turnout to vote. Might be best that knowledgeable pollsters can do, but still very crappy. From now on we need more the attitude of sportsball fans turning to support the team and each other, and less like incompetent fraudsters we see making predictions on the TV.
So, actual acts on election day will always beat bogus facts.
jacy
Hiedi Hietkamp’s brother being interviewed on MSNBC is cracking me up — he seems like a genuinely cool guy. He says she’s voting her conscience and she’s going to win.
James E Powell
I had to. I just had to.
Emerald
@japa21: Oh I agree it might help her. If she’d voted yes I can see plenty of Dems staying home. She’s never going to get the MAGAt crowd anyway.
Well, whatever her reason, good for her!
TenguPhule
@HeleninEire:
The risk of making Republican lies about election fraud seem true.There are violent felonies that are easier, more useful and less dangerous to the Democratic Party then trying commit actual voter fraud..
TenguPhule
@Omnes Omnibus:
The current rightwing arglebargle is that Ford’s accusations were a paid Democratic sting operation fraud to illegally try and deny Kav his place on the Supreme Court.
No, I’m not making this up.
Calouste
@TenguPhule: As usual, every accusation is projection. It’s certainly what O’Keefe would do and has done.
schrodingers_cat
@Ramiah Ariya: Your concern is noted
NotMax
@japa21
The Native American vote was enough to give Heitkamp a squeaker win last time. Native American turnout in ND, while still trailing non-Native population, has increased in each election since and a no on Kavanaugh *could* serve to bump that up enough to tilt the race for her, even with the suppression-oriented voter ID law North Dakota passed there after her win.
Informative summary of some of what’s been done to suppress Native American vote..
Martin
Hopefully we can get Adam to do a post on this, but it’s a pretty big fucking deal.
Our labor/manufacturing discussions are completely fucked up because they fail to recognize that labor is not the bottleneck for production any longer, it’s supply chains – which are dependent on infrastructure and agility more than anything else (two things the US sucks at). But these supply chains are incredibly complex beasts that require extending trust to a lot of different agents in a lot of different countries. Concepts like ‘farm to fork’ are fundamentally challenges in gaining full control over the food supply chain – knowing where a given piece of produce or meat originated, ended, and stopped along the way, and knowing how it was handled at each step. It speaks to the problem that in 99% of cases, we have no fucking idea where it came from or how it got to us. This is why e coli and listeria outbreaks are so common and so hard to easily contain. It’s in lettuce. Where did the lettuce come from? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Gonna have to recall all of it.
The computer/consumer electronics chain is at least an order of magnitude more complex and often runs through a large number of different nations. If a state actor inserts themselves into a supply chain, it’s entirely possible the end customer has no idea that compromised company was even involved in the manufacturing of that product, as they were hired by some other component supplier. Big companies like Apple and Samsung are really on top of their supply chains. Apple’s internal servers are relatively off-the-shelf items, which is why they missed it there, but there’s almost no way this could happen with an iPhone or Galaxy phone, or any of the really common brand name devices consumers buy. But they can’t monitor everything they buy to that level of detail and there are a ton of companies that simply aren’t big enough to do that to any of their products.
I’m not sure how this gets fixed.
TenguPhule
@Martin:
Actually this has more to do with combining same food types from various locations for mass production.
We know where most of the lettuce comes from, but that rotates over the farming cycle in the year. That’s why when there is an outbreak it can usually be traced back fairly quickly.
SMignon
Long -time lurker: my first and only comment was years back and along the same lines. I beg of you all: the next time a pollster calls you, TAKE THE SURVEY. I work part time for a polling firm and Repubs far outnumber Dems in responses. Help set the tone of the discourse! It’s free and takes only a few minutes. A consistent survey question is “what are the chances that you will vote in November?” Answers are almost certain, probably, 50-50 chance and won’t vote. Of the 100 or so completed surveys I’ve done over the past month, only 5 have not said CERTAIN. They’re just as determined to vote as we are. We Look upon these polls with dismay but spurn (disdainfully) the chance to create better or more representative results….
patrick II
Kavanaugh was not the only issue in the news this past week, although we tend to pay less attention to news that might be positive for Trump. He renegotiated a deal with Canada and Mexico, pretending to replace NAFTA. It actually wasn’t much of a change, but on TV and in the newspapers that looks like one, and many people like the idea of someone standing up for the United States and trade deals. The true advantage of what he did may not be much if anything, but the presentation of it on TV and in the news is that he has done the American Working Class A large favor. That stuff counts with a certain number of trump voters.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Martin: Complex is putting it mild, apparently outsource companies out source to other companies who intern outsource… one place I worked our parts people had to go threw ten differant companies to find the orginal maker. That’s also what’s wierd about this, there is no way to predict were the Supermicro board will end up, so the Chine bug everyone and everything? Not to mention, how in the heck can you just add another component and not have problems ?
Eljai
@jacy: I have had my disagreements with Heidi but good on her for voting no. I just sent her a donation.
grandpa john
@Mnemosyne: which has always been the problem,stay at home democrats and purist who constantly cut their nown throats for voting third party to teach some one a lesson. A lesson that they themselves need to learn. If they have learned nothing the last two years ,it appears that they are to ignorant and arrogant to ever learn anything
Gravenstone
@Martin:
Butlerian Jihad. //
Chetan Murthy
@Ramiah Ariya:
It doesn’t take a lot of paying-attention, to notice that Rapey-K is ….. a rapist. Not much at all. Any “independents” who are actually turned-off by the Dems’ “shenanigans” weren’t persuadable anyway.
I know one such “independent” — a woman. She’s completely livid about Rapey-K, but otherwise is a standard-issue-conservative-too-embarrassed-by-the-insanity-so-she’s-independent. I knew another “independent” couple (in the Before Time, 2015) and they voted for the Shitlord.
There are very, very few independents left — that’s what almost all the studies tell us. Instead, there are people who are ashamed of their positions, or emboldened to speak their positions.
I mean, this ain’t rocket science here. We’re talking about “is rape OK? opinions differ!” level shit.
Chetan Murthy
@JMG:
I’m gonna plug my own (partial) solution to the telemarketing spam problem. Inadvertently discovered. My area code is 617 (Boston) but I live in SF. When I see a call from my area code, or better yet, my exchange, I ALWAYS ignore it. B/c it’s spam. Telemarketers still try to trick people into believing that the phone call is local, by spoofing a “local” call from the same exchange as the recipient.
HeleninEire
@TenguPhule: But I said I wasn’t gonna do it. BUT THAT DOES NOT MATTER. They say we do it anyway so why not?
Chetan Murthy
@Emerald:
She might lose. And if she does lose, she’ll still be a hero. It’s an honor to have donated to her campaign.
TenguPhule
@HeleninEire:
They also say we keep child sex slaves in the basements of pizza parlors.
J R in WV
After the ND Senator announced her decision to vote NO on “Judge” Kavanaugh, her web site crashed from the volume of donations attempted. I succeeded in donating through ActBlue, which has more robust servers than the DNC contractor which supports most Democratic web sites.
Win or lose on “Judge” Kavanaugh, I believe we still have a vast opportunity to take the House, maybe take the Senate, make some gains on the State and local levels. People hate “Judge” Kavanaugh, everyone with a lick of sense and honesty could see that he was lying his ass off to the Senators, attacking the Senators asking hard questions, and otherwise full of crap.
BroD
@Roger Moore:
“If you’re going to panic, at least panic productively, e.g. by volunteering, donating, etc.”
Exactly right! And I’m doubling down. Well, not exactly doubling–my budget cant handle THAT– but scraping the bottom of the change jar.