Here’s an explainer on the Emergency! Trump wants to declare:
Trump says he may “declare” a national emergency, which he has the power to do under the National Emergencies Act of 1976. But that same law allows the House of Representatives to pass a resolution terminating Trump’s declaration immediately. Such a resolution would be referred to the Senate and is required to be reported out of committee within 15 days and voted on by the full chamber no longer than three days later.
The Senate is controlled by Republicans. But it’s far from certain that a majority of Republicans would be willing to affirm a national emergency declaration that subverts their legislative authority. Several Republican Senators have already called on Congress to open the government without funding the wall. All Republicans voted to fund the government without wall funding just a couple of weeks ago.
That’s Judd Leglum (you need to click through an ad, but you don’t have to subscribe to his excellent newsletter to read it). My take is that Trump will declare his Emergency! and sign the CRs to get out of the corner he’s in. Senate Republicans, except for a couple in the rotating cast of the very concerned (Collins, Gardner, etc.), will vote for it, and the government will re-open. Then it will be tied up in the courts until there’s a 5-4 vote saying that a President can do anything he wants as long as he’s white, male, old and Republican. But that’s just a guess.
Obviously, as a matter of public policy, we’re so far into stupidland that there’s no real reason to discuss whether an Emergency! makes sense. Of course it doesn’t, like most of the rest of Trump policy. As a matter of politics, it’s just more reinforcement that Trump is horrible and Republicans won’t rein him in, which everyone but Fox News viewers has already accepted. Collins and Gardner are toast in 2020 no matter how they vote, so their votes might be just as informed by their need for wingnut welfare post election as they will be by positioning for 2020. Brave Sir Mittens of the Mormon Lands is already on record supporting a wall, whether Steel, Concrete, Basalt, Lead, Tin or a Space Age Composite, so he will probably receive a tsk-tsk and sad eyes from Jennifer Rubin and continue on with his brave effort to sound noble and do nothing.
By the way, if the Emergency! happens, it will show how an impeachment vote would fare in the Senate. Pelosi’s right when she says something has to change before it’s worth bringing up, but only Baby Jesus knows what that would be.
Cervantes
this would in fact make the United States a dictatorship. That ought to be a big step for the Republicans in the Senate to contemplate. Not sure it is entirely consistent with conservative doctrine, but maybe I just don’t understand it very well.
hueyplong
It might be helpful to think of Republicans as the white power structure trying to hang on in South Africa in the last days of Apartheid. It keeps you from thinking there is some kind of conventional line they won’t cross.
Snarki, child of Loki
“Brave Sir Mittens of the Mormon Lands is already on record supporting a wall, whether Steel, Concrete, Basalt, Lead, Tin or a Space Age Composite”
I, for one, look forward to Brave Sir Mittens to support an Invisible Wall™, erected in record time (and low, low cost!) by a crack team of mimes.
Punchy
I think Josh Marshall here is pretty on-point. They’ll throw this Hail Mary, knowing full well that the courts will block it, then demonize the court system and immediately fund-raise off it. Trump will declare victory (because that’s what he always does, no matter what) and sign the bills to get the government functioning.
retiredeng
Good God!
schrodingers_cat
I find playing the game of what Orange will do next an utter waste of my time.
Marcopolo
I am going to wait for another hour or so so the coffee I am drinking can kick in but I invite all my fellow BJ peeps to join me in calling their Republican senators (those of you with only D senators can find something else to do): (202) 224-3121 (Senate switchboard #).
My points:
1) The Trump shutdown is on them & the President
2) Real people including my neighbors are being hurt every minute this continues.
3) McConnell’s decision to not even hold a vote on legislation passed by the House because Trump doesn’t like it is ridiculous, shirks their role as a co-equal branch of government, and is a bad look.
4) If R’s in the Senate want to keep deferring to a President who is so out of touch with the majority of Americans I hope they are ready to be in the minority in 2020.
And have a nice 7th of January everyone.
Cheryl Rofer
@Marcopolo: Always good to call D senators and thank them for what they do!
Brachiator
@Punchy:
This would be my guess as well. Trump and the GOP will also bash Pelosi and the Democrats as not caring about border security, and will work this lie all the way to the 2020 election.
MattF
The little catch here is that there is no emergency. And everyone knows it. I’m guessing that going full delusional won’t be a popular option— but who knows?
Betty Cracker
From the linked newsletter:
Sweet fancy Moses. “Stupidland” is right.
Face
@Cervantes: Yup. If the precedent is set that a “declaration” –completely subjective but defined by the Executive Branch without question*–can bypass Congress for funding of anything and/or the use of the military for any reason, then you’ve lost a functional democracy and set up a faux one, basically whatever Russia has. I have to believe there’s at least a handful of Rs and the entire cast of Ds that would stop this before it got going.
* — until a Democratic president is elected. Then all powers revoked.
NotMax
Obligatory.
Emergency. Everybody to get from street.
khead
Please do not drag Randolph Mantooth – one of the best names in TV history – into this shit show. Kevin Tighe is pretty cool too, btw.
Jeffro
@schrodingers_cat: I was just gonna say the same thing…who cares what he has done/is doing/will do. Everyone knows he is unfit. Declaring a fake national emergency would just add a fifth point to this excellent call to action by David Leonhardt, The People vs Donald J. Trump
He Is Demonstrably Unfit For Office. What Are We Waiting For?
That was from over the weekend. Today’s column notes how Trumpov is an unusually weak president, whose support could well crumble faster than people think.
I think the Dems would do well to quit arguing about the wall, or how long AOC went by the nickname Sandy (hint to Democrats: you’re not “counterpunching”, you’re just prolonging discussion over things that are absurd on their face). Dem leaders need to launch as many loud, public investigations as possible, and they also need to publicly call out Republican Senators by name for enabling this dangerous insanity emanating from the WH.
They’d also do well to make some public pleas to American’s blessed titans of business and ask them how they’re liking those tariffs; make pleas to working-class families to remember the tariffs and the shutdown when they go to vote in 2020, and remind #NeverTrumpers that their whining doesn’t mean jack shit unless they vote for Democrats at all levels until the GOP abandons Trumpov.
It is long past time to call for this president*s immediate resignation. What are we/they waiting for?
Chris
The idea that senators wouldn’t agree to a national emergency because they’re more loyal to their institution than to their party is delightful in its naivete.
The Republican Party is its own branch of government nowadays, and whether you’re executive, legislative, or judicial, loyalty to it comes first
Raoul
@Marcopolo: There is a reason to call Democratic senators (via Greg Sargent):
Doing this severely raises the cost to McConnell for refusing to put forth the same bill that passe in late December.
Punchy
Hahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahaha!!! Also as likely, my dog winning the Powerball or my flight leaving on time from O’Hare.
The Grift is so strong, so lucrative, there’s literally nothing Trump could do behavior-wise to get them to act honorable. He could shit on a 1st grader’s head and then throw a litter of puppies into an industrial blender (and serve puppy milkshakes), and Republican Senators would fall over themselves explaining how “that’s just how he rolls…it’s Pelosi’s fault that she didn’t give him a 2nd grader to shit on instead”.
Patricia Kayden
What is the emergency at the southern border though? A few asylum seeking migrants who are fleeing unimaginable hardships and poverty? This country has been without a wall for over 250 years so what has changed? Immigration overall is down. This crisis is as manufactured as the toupee on Trump’s orange head.
sigaba
Emergency! is one of my favorite shows from childhood and I own the DVD box set, I used to binge it on Netflix when it was still on that. I don’t appreciate the negging :)
Jack Webb strikes me as someone who was probably a reasonable Republican. He certainly practiced diversity in his casting and had a much more positive view of government than the present crew…
khead
Also, you should have gone with Kool and the Gang.
sigaba
@Patricia Kayden:
The emergency is the Democrats control the House. That’s the only thing that’s changed
schrodingers_cat
I also refuse to buy the premise that tying their fortunes to Orange has had no consequences for the Rs. They already have lost the House. If they refuse to govern they will be thrown out. We are not fucking powerless. California and NM have D governors will they go along with this manufactured Emergency. He can’t fucking find a replacement for CoS, for crying out loud. Nakedly partisan and ambitious Ayers refused to take up that job.
Frankensteinbeck
The trend has been that Trump does the truly batshit insane stuff suddenly, and the horrible ideas he floats as trial balloons he backs off of. Frankly, we have no evidence he would actually veto a wall-less CR. Right now, McConnell is shutting down the government, not Trump.
Ken B
Every time a Democrat speaks about the shutdown, they should make sure they put the blame where out belongs.
Trump shutdown is good, but not fully accurate, and doesn’t put pressure on McConnell.
Trump\McConnell shutdown is better, it ties McConnell’s name directly to the shutdown, and to Trump.
But I think McConnell\Trump shutdown is better than that, since it puts McConnell’s name in front of Trump’s. I don’t think that it’ll make a big difference on the amount of heat McConnell feels, but it’ll drive Trump nuts that McConnell is getting top billing in something that Trump is doing.
I think we need to drive any wedges we can into the GOP coalition.
JR
@hueyplong: I liken them to Bourbons trying to hang on to the last vestiges of feudalism. But the general idea is the same.
Marcopolo
@Raoul:I guess what Van Hollen is suggesting is that D’s filibuster any Senate legislation (which they can do with things other than appts, right?) so everything needs to pass a 60 vote margin in order to be considered until McConnell holds a vote on the House bills to end the shutdown? Fine, if folks want to call their D senators and promote this I have no probs with it though I think our most leverage at this moment is with pestering the Rs (which would also be my reply to Cheryl though I agree positive reinforcement with D reps & senators is never a bad thing). Also there are a couple R senators who are already uncomfortable with the heat.
Here is the senate switchboard number again: (202) 224-3121
Kraux Pas
Collins, in an effort to be “fair” to McConnell, says that any bill they can pass won’t become law unless Trump can come to an agreement with Pelosi and Schumer. This is not true. Pelosi supports legislation that passed the Senate with 90 plus votes not too long ago. Congress overriding an unpresidential veto is well within the realm of possibility. McConnell is trying to avoid that particular partisan embarrassment while allowing the one in the White House to continue unabated.
Also, why does word press recognize Trump as a proper noun but not Pelosi or Schumer? I suspect chicanery.
Yarrow
@Ken B: Yep. When people who I don’t know for sure are Democrats complain about Trump, I always said (until Jan 3rd), “Republicans control both house of Congress. The legislative branch is a co-equal branch of government. If they wanted to stop him they could. Why are they not stopping him?” It has been quite educational to watch the faces of people who haven’t thought about it that way. I figure even if it’s just a crack in the way someone thinks about Republicans, that’s a good start. I take every opportunity to blame Trump on Republicans, for they are one and the same.
I’ll have to shift how I talk about it a bit now that the Dems control the House but the principle is the same. Trump = Republicans and Republicans = Trump.
NotMax
@sigaba
The propaganda drumbeat of ‘hippies are a plague, worthy of only being crushed or locked up’ on the 60s relaunch of Dragnet speaks otherwise.
Emergency! was a spin-off of Adam-12, another blatant police propaganda series of Webb’s.
Raoul
@khead: Even as a wee lad, I thought Randolph was rather toothsome. Tighe, not so much. But there I go, being lookist.
Amir Khalid
Emergency! was quite popular on Malaysian TV in the mid-70s. It had no plot at all, just featured the comings and goings of a two-man team of firefighter-EMTs and the emergency room of the hospital where they took their patients. Of the cast members in that montage, the doctor on the left was played by legendary songwriter Bobby Troup, and the nurse by his wife the singer Julie London. The show’s producer was London’s ex Jack Webb.
President Donald J. Toddler seriously needs someone to tell him no on this (among other things). Congress can’t do it because Mitch McConnell won’t let it — not least because the Democratic party says it needs to be done, and one of McConnell’s principles is to deny Democrats whatever they want.
catclub
@MattF:
I put this quote first, because, any loony legal idea that gets all the GOP behind it becomes very serious and likely to be upheld by GOP courts.
So how badly are the Democrats NOT emphasizing 1) Illegal immigration now is the same or lower than it has been for the last 10-12 years or more.
and 2) Most illegal immigration is by VISA overstay, not sneaking across the border.
and 3) The only possible crisis on the border, now, is of asylum seekers, surrendering themselves to immigration officers, so a WALL does not address them, either.
MattF
@Patricia Kayden: The emergency is that Trump might not be able to fulfill a base-rousing campaign promise. The southern border is the very last place to look for a refutation.
tobie
Lamar Alexander (TN) and Pat Robert (KS) are retiring. Will they grow a spine on the way out the door?
Amir Khalid
@khead:
He was unusual in being one of the few Native American actors to have a starring role on TV in those days, as I recall.
Redshift
@Kraux Pas: The other reason “we can’t pass a bill Trump won’t sign” is BS is that the entire reason we’re in this shutdown is that Trump refused to sign a bill that was voted on because he said he’d sign it.
There’s no way to know if Trump will sign a bill except by putting one in front of him. That’s the only way out of this, not “negotiations” with Commander Crazypants.
Patricia Kayden
@Snarki, child of Loki: Romney, like many of the upper class Republicans, is probably very embarrassed by Trump’s crassness but has no problem with his actual policies. Hence, the “Trump needs to modulate his tone” scolding editorial. Romney is just the latest incarnation of Flake, who voted for Trump’s judges and policies every chance he get even though he found Trump so gauche.
Elizabelle
@tobie: Not Lamar!
As in, Lamar! Remember that?
Raoul
@Kraux Pas: So senator Collins is saying that the Senate should never even try to pass any bill unless the Executive stands ready to sign it? Or at the very lest the House will also pass the exact carbon of it?
She’s all-in on the authoritarian thing where the upper house is merely a rubber stamp of the Admin.*
*Unless, somehow, the WH is in Dem hands, in which case, I’m sure Collins will go back to wanting lots of show vetoes. Her veneer of moderation has cracked, badly.
Kraux Pas
@Redshift:
Truth.
@Raoul:
She says she wants the bills to be brought up for a vote, but nothing can be passed into law anyway so what’s a Senatortoise to do?
Amir Khalid
Had there been a border wall in the 19th century, the southwestern US might still be Mexican territory today.
khead
@tobie:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Sorry. Had to check myself so I didn’t die from laughing.
Gelfling 545
@Cervantes: The conservative doctrine appears to me to be WE NEED TO RUN THINGS, we being old, white, rich men. Whether the “we” includes Trump in their minds is the question.
MattF
@Elizabelle: Jeb! probably remembers.
The Dangerman
Whew!
On first coffee (West Coaster), I thought “Emergency” might refer to Cole’s bicycle ride on his last day.
Carry on.
tobie
@Elizabelle: Oh no…did I step in it without realizing that?
NotMax
@Raoul
Collins is squishier than Silly Putty and not nearly as entertaining.
Why anyone pays the slightest attention to anything which passes her lips is beyond me.
Mike E
@Patricia Kayden: white birthrate is down… demographic shift has the repubs on the run
sigaba
@NotMax: Actually on Emergency! the hippies kinda got half and half. Usually they were idiots who didn’t vaccinate their kids (Webb seemed pretty positive on vaccination) but a few times one of the paramedics or doctors would write-off a patient as a “hippy OD” based on his appearance but it’d turn out (after Brackett took a look at him) that it was something more serious and the medic would be shamed.
Also a few episodes centered on Christian nuts who wouldn’t let the doctors see their kid or wouldn’t “take charity” from the county hospital. They were also shamed.
tobie
@khead: Well, at least I injected some humor into an otherwise depressing theme!
Elizabelle
WRT emergency responders: I recently somehow learned that Bobby Sherman, Teen Idol (“Here Come the Brides”, some 45s, Tiger Beat covers) became a real life EMT type. He’s with the Sheriff’s Department in SoCal. Maybe San Bernardino. Kind of a training and outreach type. He may have since retired, but he was serious about the public service.
Have to respect that. He has aged, but you can still see the vestiges.
Kraux Pas
@NotMax:
She is the voice of the right-wing (I refuse to call them conservative) conscience, deeply concerned and not the least bit steadfast in its resolve.
Elizabelle
@MattF: Baud! is the only one who wears that apostrophe well.
Mary G
I am just about ready to take to the streets, just make a sign, get on my scooter and go up the block to the main road. This is just intolerable.
Gelfling 545
I’m just not understanding why his minions don’t cause a few yards of concrete to be run up – anywhere really because I doubt Trump knows the border from his left foot – tell Trump the wall is done (as he himself has announced it practically done occasionally) and take him there to have his picture taken and hold a rally. As for the media, they’ve kept quiet about worse.
sigaba
@Elizabelle: Bobby Sherman decided to become an EMT after he appeared on an episode of… Emergency!. “Fools”, season 2, look it up.
I also got to work once with Randy Mantooth, he still regularly speaks at first responder conventions…
piratedan
well in my mind part of the problem is the media portrayal of this unadulterated bullshit… you know, there are some significant metro areas on the border, if we want to highlight just how vast this border emergency is, we could go to affiliates in El Paso, San Diego, Yuma, Tucson, Las Cruces, Waco, Brownsville et al and show the emergency taking place as it unfolds and show America, the truly desperate straights that we’re in…. or perhaps even scroll through their top stories because it would certainly make the local news, amirite?
and once that is categorically shown to be bullshit, indict the President for making up a crisis and lying to the American people by shutting down the government because he can’t get an appropriation for something he never needed, even when his party controlled all three branches of Government.
Then we can all gladly move on to indicting President Pence for his role in the Russian subversion of the 2016 election…
Kraux Pas
@piratedan:
straits. /pedant
montanareddog
@Ken B:
I would go for “Coulter/McConnell” shutdown as the most realistic description
Elizabelle
@sigaba: Cool.
schrodingers_cat
@catclub: That visa overstays == illegal immigrants is a bullshit talking point brought to you by the same people who love to demonize immigrants
1. Some of these statistics counts people who change their status while in the United States as overstays( a legal procedure by which you can change your immigration statues while in the Untied status) For example a person on a student visa or a work visa who becomes a permanent resident
2. Not all overstays become illegal immigrants. (Overstay == you stay beyond the data stamped in your visa, immigrant == you live and work here)
3. The country with most overstays is Canada. And I don’t think that they are all planning to immigrate here.
By equating overstays with illegal immigration, immigration restrictionists want to be able ask anyone’s papers at will. A license to create a police state. As you were saying in your comment above illegal immigration is actually down from its highs in the last decade.
Ian G.
@piratedan:
Last time I checked, San Diego and El Paso were among the safest major cities in America. If there’s a crime problem in border cities, it’s along the Canadian border, where Detroit and Buffalo both struggle with high crime.
schrodingers_cat
T thinks immigrants game the system. The truth of the matter is the people doing the most gaming are American oligarchs like himself who game the system to get cheap labor. If immigrants are found gaming the system the penalties for them are sky high whereas for the corporations that do it, the penalty is usually a fine, at most.
schrodingers_cat
@schrodingers_cat: * He demagogues, not thinks. He has gamed the immigration system for his personal gain. He is doing it right now.
Burnspbesq
@khead:
And lest we forget, the Robert Fuller who played one of the ER docs is Bobby Fuller of the Bobby Fuller Four.
montanareddog
@Burnspbesq: Mandatory
montanareddog
@montanareddog:
Previous Bobby Fuller link was borked
Thouhg are you sure about Robert Fuller = Bobby Fuller (the latter died mysteriously in 1966)?
khead
@Burnspbesq:
Very good! I once fought the law.
gvg
@Kraux Pas: the word trump has a meaning beyond happening to also be his name. something to do with cards. To trump someone I think has to do with having a better hand in some game. It may also be a specific set of cards. I never bothered to follow up but I have encountered the phrases in novels set in the past since childhood.
WaterGirl
@schrodingers_cat:
That’s because he did it. With Melania. And then with her parents. Now that they are up the ladder, fuck everyone else.
rikyrah
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
The Moar You Know
@Elizabelle: So did David Lee Roth, former and current singer for Van Halen. Took his decade of downtime, cut his hair, moved to NYC and started working the nighttime ambulance shifts. Was only recognized by a couple of people. Gotta give him kudos for that, it’s not an easy job. But it’s not like he needed the money.
BroD
@NotMax: Yes!!!!!!
Bloix
Leglum’s post is unclear and seems to imply that the House could stop the “emergency” unilaterally. That’s not how I read the statute. The President’s power to declare a national emergency is unchecked unless and until Congress terminates the emergency by “concurrent resolution” – that is, both Houses must affirmatively pass the resolution. McConnell has no obligation to bring the resolution to a vote so no Republican Senator would be forced to go on record as supporting the “emergency.” They could just passively let it happen, which is generally their preferred method of dealing with Trump.
catclub
@khead: Did the law win?
Kenneth Kohl
@Marcopolo: Both my Senators are D; Schumer and Gillibrand. Why wouldn’t also want to call some random Senator-R? Doesn’t their action/inaction also affect me?
Death Panel Truck
@NotMax: The goalposts have been moved so far to the right that Jack Webb would be considered a liberal today. I give him props for casting minorities when other shows wouldn’t be caught dead doing it. Bruce Geller and Mike Connors of Mannix deserve the same respect – they refused to give in to CBS when the network refused to cast Gail Fisher as Peggy.
Kenneth Kohl
@Patricia Kayden:
Living on the Niagara Frontier, that deity/non-deity that Canada may be more understanding of northbound folks… ;)
Karen
@montanareddog:
Karen
What’s the difference between national emergency and martial law?
Michael Cain
@Karen: National emergencies allow the President to bypass or accelerate certain regulatory or statutory requirements. Eg, the one related to defense allows for skipping the normally required bidding qualification and bidding processes for DoD to purchase goods or services. No mention whatsoever about bypassing Congressional budget and appropriation processes. Congress hasn’t approved spending for a wall; Article 1 Section 9 is an absolute statement requiring Congressional approval to spend; not a chance in hell that CJ Roberts will take the blame for deciding otherwise.
Michael Cain
My bet is still that the shutdown ends Jan 18 by veto override. Next week is when the Republicans in Congress start getting late-night phone calls from their Republican governors and Republican state legislators who are taking the heat as various state programs start shutting down because the federal dollars aren’t there.
Three Dots
Actually, the Robert Fuller on “Emergency!” was a different individual. However, one of the doctors was played by the songwriter Bobby Troup, who wrote the all-time standard “Route 66.”
chopper
@Frankensteinbeck:
this is true. mcconnell says he doesn’t want to bring to the floor a bill that the president won’t sign. but that doesn’t matter as to the process, if trump doesn’t sign it it still becomes law. trump would have to full-on veto it.
has trump promised mcconnell he’ll veto a clean bill? he needs to be asked this question loudly and daily.
otherwise it’s fair to assume that mcconnell is ultimately responsible for shutting it down.
Mnemosyne
Imma let you finish, but the first couple of seasons of “Emergency!” actually hold up pretty well.
That’s all.
chopper
@Bloix:
IIRC the senate is required to take up the house decision within 15 days. dunno if mcconnell could figure out some slimy way to slow it down tho.