Under pressure from conservatives to help Trump deliver on a signature campaign promise and unable to persuade him to avert the partial government shutdown, these lawmakers have all but surrendered to the president’s will. Their comments show how the cracks in the 53-member Republican majority that emerged at the outset of the shutdown have not spread beyond a handful of lawmakers.
I’ve expanded the earlier fundraiser we were doing for the Democratic Senate nominees in Maine and Colorado to include Georgia, North Carolina, McSally, and Ernst. Let’s send everyone of these Republican assholes home in 2020.
I may make this my main fundraising thing in 2020 — nominee funds for competitive Senate races currently held by Republicans. The Senate is the main pressure point in the shutdown and there’s a good chance that Dems maintain or expand their House lead and Trump goes down badly in 2020. If that happens, then it’s all about the Senate. Senate races are expensive but nominee funds are a good way to attract strong candidates. I think it’s money well spent.
I read in a previous post here that the government runs 100% out of money in September. It seems to me a shutdown cannot go on for years as some have predicted, because there won’t be a government after then. Basically what no one seems to be mentioning is that the United States has less than a year to live. But hey, the markets will completely crash long before then, so there’s that. Someone talk me off the ledge here?
Link no work
Oh bullshit. These are some of the most powerful people in the world – they’ve DECIDED to go along with wrecking the country for personal gain. Every elected GOP should be in fucking jail by the end of this.
I think there is zero chance that this goes past February. People are going to start dying or a general strike is going to take place as people’s personal resources reach a breaking point.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Paul W.: It will go on until the Maga heads take so much pain they start splitting from Trump.
Who could have predicted:
New York Times: In Business and Governing, Trump Seeks Victory in Chaos
This may work in real estate transactions, where you rarely buy property from the same folks over and over again. It doesn’t work so well in repeat settings, such as purchasing supplies for one’s casinos or getting bank loans for new deals – or negotiating with foreign governments, or Congress.
This will only end when the Democrats cave, or the Republicans decide they’ve had enough and override Trump’s veto. Trump’s the Honey Badger President – he doesn’t care.
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
NosferAnntu will never let Trump compromise even a tiny bit.
The pressure has already forced the supposedly invincible McConnell to force Trump to the negotiating table. It doesn’t matter that the first offer was bullshit. They budged, and we didn’t. McConnell is trying to shift blame to the Democrats now, and it’s not going to work because the population sees Trump front and center being an asshole every day. So, the pressure on him that people said he doesn’t feel will increase.
I know the country still generally blames Trump and the Republicans for the shutdown but according to Civiqs, the polling firm that DailyKos now features on its website, Democrats are taking a heavy hit. Trump’s approval ratings went from -13% to -9% over the past four or five days, Pelosi’s approval is tanking, McConnell’s is rising (albeit from rock bottom), and support for the wall has grown some this month. Are these trends consistent with other polling firms? The trend lines from this one firm are disturbing.
maybe this is why Tulsi decides to run for Prez?
For future fundraising, Tulsi Gabbard now has a primary challenger. He sounds great.
@Yarrow: “Unlike Gabbard, he is a democrat…..”
You seem interested enough in the matter to seek out other polling data for comparison, and you might want to do that rather than just fret about it. But even if that other data confirms the Democratic party is taking a hit in popularity, what would you suggest they do differently about the shutdown? It seems to me that doing the right thing for the nation’s sake, i.e. getting Trump to reopen the US Government, must be the first priority.
Kamala official a nnouncement video:
Also too, she’s heading to SC first.
@Amir Khalid: Sometimes people ask questions on this blog. A prominent website has a running banner with polling data that struck me as inconsistent with what I’ve seen reported so I asked if other jackals had seen polling data recently on the shifting public sentiment regarding the shutdown. Sharing information is part of the purpose of a blog. As for what Democrats should do: I don’t think they should reopen the government on Trump’s terms (i.e., border wall in exchange for temporary protection for DACA recipients). But the party’s original message — reopen government and then have immigration discussions — may not be working as well now as it did at the start of the shutdown and could use some retooling. What people want is malleable. Polling data lets you know (or can let you know) if your messaging is working.
I’m not familiar with that polling group so I don’t know how to react to what seems like a hair-on-fire approach. I have more faith in 538, and perhaps this article from 1/19/19 will calm you a bit.
@lamh36: I have vowed that I am voting for whoever black women are voting for, so if Harris sews up that support early in the game, then I know who my candidate is going to be!
Donated. Thanks DougJ!
Flipping the Senate (or at the very least, making it clear that McConnell can’t win re-election) is an important goal.
@debbie: Thanks for the link! The analysis comes after Trump’s Saturday announcement–billed as major but mostly bogus–which is just what I was thinking about. Looks like Silver’s polling composites are the opposite of Civiqs averages.
@Miss Bianca: It’s such an easy shortcut for anyone who isn’t a black woman. Just look to see who black women are supporting and that’s your candidate! Easy. Done.
@Another Scott: McConnell represents the Covington Catholic crowd. There’s not a soul in the state of Kentucky who can beat him.
About as I have expected, a temporary polling boost that will be mostly gone in 8 or 10 days. This is not something that will stick in people’s memory
@Just Chuck: If this goes into March* we’ll probably be crashing hard into a major recession. September don’t even enter into it.
* Honestly, we’re probably looking at a recession regardless, but the longer this goes on the harder things are going to be hit.
It isn’t just messaging, the debt ceiling needs to be raised in a few months. Trump discovering that hostage taking for ransom works is intolerable as a precedent. I believe and hope Nancy fully understands that.
For many conservative ideologues in the House/Senate, the tough-love paring down of the federal government caused by the shutdown achieves a goal they would have been dauntingly infeasible to accomplish by deliberate legislation – and an lengthy period of chaotic disruption to some parts even they consider proper and worthy to support is worth the sacrifice. The military stays funded – if only they can figure out a way to privatize TSA and find ways to fund it outside the shutdown, they’ll be content to let this continue, at least unless and until it becomes patently obvious that continuance of the shutdown puts them at catastrophic risk of an electoral blowout in 2020. Not enough of them are convinced that will happen- yet.
hell, 2018 hasn’t sunk in yet for most. I’m not sure you could insert a clue into their heads with a nailgun.
If that’s the first priority, then the Democrats should cave and give Trump everything he wants.
I don’t think that’s the first priority. The FIRST priority is to make sure he doesn’t get rewarded handsomely so that he does it again and again.
@Yarrow: Easiest time I will ever have had picking out a candidate. And in the meantime, no sweat, no angst, no internal or external argument – just “I have decided to follow the lead of the backbone of the Democratic Party.” : )
@Paul W.: The odds of a “general strike” seem pretty low to me. Yesterday I wrote a post on The Daily Kos promoting the idea of a general strike and all I got was a list of reasons why such a thing was either impossible or illegal. Progressives appear to be waiting for someone else to save the day.
I fixed the link. Sorry about that.
@Miss Bianca: Exactly.
@Matt McIrvin: Agreed. This is a showdown to save the country and the Dems must win or he’ll destroy it next time.
we’re supposed to hit the debt ceiling in the beginning of march, tho that will end up pushed off i assume due to the shutdown.
trump and the GOP are prob gonna take that one hostage too. in fact, i’d bank on it. they’ve done it before, and that was before orangemandias took over.
@chopper: Everyone get your arguments ready! (No, the debt ceiling is not a credit limit, the US budget is not a household budget, etc.)
I’m all in favor of looking-forward fundraising, but let’s not forget the Virginia legislature elections. Both the State Senate and the House of Delegates are controlled by Republicans with razor-thin margins. Flipping a couple of seats in each would mean a trifecta and, among many other things, a much easier path to fixing the hideously gerrymandered maps for both chambers and Virginia’s U.S. House seats. It’s a huge opportunity. (The State Senate is really important because the next election won’t be until 2023.)
@B.B.A.: Maybe, but many heads of the GOP in Congress over the years have found ways to decide to “spend more time with their family”.
Agreed that it won’t be easy. If it were, Sen. Allison would be the junior senator from the Commonwealth. We need to fight for every seat – no matter how difficult it seems ~ 2 years out.
@randy khan: That’s an excellent point. Are those campaigns already happening? Is there an Act Blue list somewhere? Maybe DougJ could do a post or two about it. In those races a small amount of money can make a huge impact.
Eric Garland (@ericgarland) Tweeted:
If you’re in DC and don’t question a freshman Congressional rep getting exponentially more media coverage than average and automated bot/troll support, stop acting like you understand politics in 2019. You don’t, and you’re dangerous.
No, counterintuitively, it’s the reverse. The Federal government will end up paying basically everything it was supposed to during the shutdown, plus extra to get some missing work done, plus penalties for missing contracts and such.
@rikyrah: Eric Garland is a bit loco. His “analysis” using game theory is not mathematically sound and his conclusions are not to be trusted. When it comes to monitoring trolls and bots I like Caroline Orr better.
ETA: Russian bots may well be directing the conversations about her on Twitter, or it could be Republican men, who are hot and bothered about her. I am sure there is significant overlap between the two.
@randy khan: +1
Of course, we cannot donate to Virginia Delegates and Senators while the legislature is in session. It looks like the earliest date we could donate is February 24 (if I’m reading that calendar correctly).
The immediate crisis is that the US Government is shut down. Reopening it should indeed be the first priority, but of course not on Trump’s terms.
Meanwhile, in the “As If We Needed More Reasons to Flip the Senate” news, here’s this steaming turdlet from Senate Republicans:
Why would you work on it, you wizened umbilical stumps? (h/t dr. bloor): Because the Senate is supposed to be a goddamned co-equal branch of government, not a syphilis-addled would-be dictator’s rubber-stamp. Jesus, the craven, the cowardly, the culpable STENCH off these people is intolerable.
ETA: In addition, if you all have honestly managed to kid yourselves that you can trust Trump’s word on anything that he “promises” to sign, you’re not only craven, you’re imbeciles as well.
@Miss Bianca: I guess they’ve completely forgotten the whole “overriding a veto” option.
This, long overdue. Anyone not getting a paycheck but being required to work is being robbed and should bring “charges” in the form of a strike. (Or actual charges, I don’t care.)
Time to move the needle here, Dems. “We’re willing to negotiate anything the Trumpublicans want to talk about, once the government is open. If you, the American citizen don’t like not being able to fly, want your FBI protecting you from threats foreign and domestic, want your tax refunds, then we cordially suggest you call Mitch McConnell’s office and tell him to quit enabling the presdent*s hostage-taking and open. the. government.”
End of story.
@rikyrah: I don’t see why either the Russians or the conservatives would be boosting AOC. I could see leftie programmers doing it but that doesn’t bother me – far better her than Sanders or Gabbard.
@chopper: I did a quick Google. March 2nd, but the Treasury thinks they can juggle things until the summer. Hitting the limit (the article actually says that the limit will be reinstated, whatever) will cost us at the next Treasury auction regardless, so… yeah…
@Paul W.: airplane crash
I’d be happy with Warren, Harris, Klobuchar, or O’Rourke, among the possible contenders. Brown, Booker, and Gillibrand would be fine, but not first tier. What I don’t get yet, though, like some folks have said, is the feeling like with Obama in 2006, where there was something obvious that he was the right person for the moment. I hope one of these folks emerges like that, because that indefinable quality is essential to getting over the finish line.
I really don’t think it was so universally obvious about Obama. Hillary had huge support.
@Vhh: or political violence. Maybe we all need to bone up on the Purge movies…
True. Maybe it was just that *I* felt that way. But I guess at the time I would have been considered to be in the “young volunteer” category, which is a demographic that is needed but only mobilizes when a candidate is electrifying. Whereas Hillary’s support was more of rock-solid Dem voters who were going to show up regardless, which meant that her loss in the primary didn’t hurt Obama in the general.
In a multi-candidate field, it’s hard to say who the rock-solid Dems are going to gravitate towards, and who the young volunteers will go for.
Though one thing that really matters is authenticity — the feeling that the person is who they say they are. I think even Hillary supporters in Iowa and NH understood that Obama was who he said he was.
A.k.a. Republican Utopia.
Or Special Councils?
@zhena gogolia: seconded.
We swamped the GOP in 2018.
We’re gonna be twice as fired up in 2020.
Trumpov ‘s only going to bleed more support and hurt his own party even more between now and then
I’m good with most any *true* Democrat and I’d bet that’s true of the vast majority of us
TSA walk-out. The ATC’s remember Reagan breaking the union, but the TSA guys are not well paid. Missing pay for a whole month, with another month (or three, or four….) highly likely will mean they physically *can not* continue on the job. They’ll face getting another job or being homeless.
Thanks, I needed the chuckle!
I have always thought of Ann Coulter as a smart but cynical grifter, in it for the book sales. But how far does a grifter, as opposed to a true believer, take it? Willing to destroy the whole country for a No. 1 on NYTimes best seller list? Perhaps book sales will be down if there is no country?
No me. I am looking up at the receding edge and the parachute handle doesn’t seem to be working.
I disagree, because I don’t think any Democrat nominee besides Obama has had it in my lifetime. One of these candidate *is* going to make it over the line, and whoever it is is going to be great (I don’t think it’s going to be Sanders, and certainly not Gabbard).
Every time I see Brown mentioned my first thought is “Jerry is running?” Ack!
Yeah, maybe Obama was unique in that way and so it’s unreasonable to expect someone to have that combination of smarts, charisma, and authenticity. Not that the current batch don’t have all three — many of them do — but not quite as much charisma as Obama had.
Mike in NC
The longer the government shutdown drags out, the more the media will keep trying to pitch it as the usual “blame both sides” bullshit. The media created Trump in the 1970s and the media has a vested interest in reelecting him.
Digby has the polls,
Never forget these are authoritarians. That means they want to be them but they also understand that they are followers – obeyers. It’s not in their nature to go against their leader in any way that would punishable. They would rather hang up their careers than buck upper management.
They are republicans first and senators second. Just like understanding drumpf’s many horrible traits, we have to be aware of republican senators and why they act like they do. They are not honorable people, they think the right an honorable thing to do is party first, constituents second at best, the country if they have the time to spare.
@BR: Obama is too high a bar. We just need a Bill Clinton ‘92: someone who emerges from a wide open field and gets better as he/she/they go.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Just Chuck: Spending authority of the current years funds ends at the end of every fiscal year on Sep. 30. In some cases the agency may have a few pots of money that they are legally allowed to carry over. In one shutdown, the group I was working in was kept from being furloughed during a shutdown because they had squirreled away a couple month’s expenses that way somehow, while most of the rest of the agency was shut down.
But that’s not the government coming to an end. It’s the annual budget, and failure to pass the budget is why we’ve had previous shutdowns. Sometimes Congress manages to pass a Continuing Resolution which at least allows some money to flow for a few weeks, but screws up everybody’s planning because it can’t have any new line items, can’t actually act on the budget they’d planned for.
That’s not how it’s supposed to work. The actual budget process has been broken for a very long time, as long as Republicans have had the votes to screw with it.
They arn’t trying ton”boost” her, they are stalking her on social media, trying to “gotcha” her on their own social media accounts, and trying to attack her on her and her supporters media accounts. Both Russians, Wingnuts and ReThugs.
Because of all the Social Media “noise” around AOC, and because the Flailing MSM would rather chase after the Twitteratti “FyreFest” social media influencers, than do investigative journalism,
They are boosting her profile and platforms.
To make all the 2020 presidential candidates look boring by comparison. BR mentioned that undefinable “it” quality–AOC has it, but from a presidential-campaign troll’s perspective her most pertinent characteristic is that she’s legally ineligible for the presidency (too young). If people are yearning for the impossibility of AOC running, they’re not enthusiastic about Warren or Harris or whoever.
Of course, if that’s the strategy, that could well backfire on them. One thing AOC has actually stressed is that there’s a lot more to the government than the White House and they should be interested in downticket races instead of being so totally emotionally invested in just electing somebody president. And she’s right. We need to be pushing to elect people up and down the slate.
In 2019, there was a specific account for the Virginia House of Delegates, but it doesn’t appear that they’ve set anything up yet; ditto for the Virginia State Senate. There is an ActBlue for the Virginia Democratic Party, which will be entirely focused on the General Assembly this year: Virginia Dems
Right now there’s a quiet period for fundraising, as people who are serving in the General Assembly can’t fundraise during legislative sessions. (It’s one of the few restrictions on campaign financing in Virginia.)
In looking around, I haven’t seen any target lists, but the House of Delegates Dems held candidate training sessions in December.
She seems adroit at retail politics far beyond her years. I’m serially impressed by not just how she handles herself but effectively pushing back without seeming defensive.
Let’s give her space to grow and see what the future holds.
@Matt McIrvin: I can see Russians and conservatives hoping to muddy the waters with AOC, but isn’t it obvious to everybody that in October 2020 she’s going to say “whatever you do, vote against Trump”? Further, her profile is going to gain her real power very quickly and that will make her even more inclined to work with the Democratic mainstream (which she isn’t that far from anyway).
Surely someone who will be effective at GOTV. The DNC will certainly put her front and center at the convention and I’d imagine her hitting the trail for the nominee.
@Fair Economist: And because she’s not that far from the mainstream, she has every chance to bend the mainstream her way and be that leader.
@Miss Bianca: I don’t even accept the premise that if the ASSet says he won’t sign something, then he won’t sign it. He’s always lying and changes his mind all the time anyway. What I don’t understand is why anyone’s bothering to ask Trump what he wants; that’s the waste of time. Put a bill on his desk and dare him to veto.
@sdhays: “Why are you covering the ASS-et’s ass?” might be a fun question for them. Meantime, I guess I will actually have to write my Repub Senator Cory Gardner and say, “why aren’t you pressuring your colleagues to *stop* covering the ASS-et’s ass?” Or words to that effect.
Upcoming special elections list here at ready2vote.
Also in the sidebar of r/VoteBlue on Reddit.
The shutdown can’t go one past the point that people stop working without pay. The IRS, FBI, Coast Guard, Border Patrol, and TSA are all being hit hard and ICE is at risk of running out of money to pay contractors. This undercuts Republicans fearmongering about border security. If they keep this up, there will be no agents to stop the next “caravan” from simply strolling across into America. This shutdown can’t continue into March, because the airports will be shut down. When Senators feel the pain, they will end the shutdown.
Republicans have shrugged off the hardship they are demanding from 420,000 people who are “essential” to the functioning of the government, and don’t consider that it’s essential that these people can pay their bills. Not to mention the 380,000 who are furloughed and more who are contractors. These people will be gone for good soon.
The Democrats should stop even talking about the border. The issue is fundamental. We believe people who work are entitled to be paid, and that the government should function.
Any deal to re-open the government should include legislation that prevents this from ever happening again.
Sincerely? Or Bernie-style with the wink-wink and “I’m only saying this because Hillary threatened to kill my wife.”
@Jinchi: They’re still operating under this conservative mythology that most government workers do absolutely nothing useful, and the public wouldn’t miss them if they just never came back to work. Most government shutdowns haven’t gone on long enough that the falsity of this really begins to bite hard, but this one might.
Fox prematurely celebrates…their birthday or something.
@Chyron HR Ocasio-Cortez? I think it’d be sincere. We’re not talking about Bernie or Tulsi Gabbard here. She might explicitly explain that this is a strategic-voting choice, though, instead of gushing about how much she loves the nominee, and that might rub people the wrong way.
J R in WV
This comment is the most split-personality comment in the history of Balloon-Juice. Telescope hard, politics screwy…!! ??
Probably something in the control-c buffer from a past commenting event? But pretty funny!! ;-)
Normally I’d agree with you. But these are literally the people they claim are essential – Homeland Security, law enforcement, border patrol, ICE and immigration courts.
They’re happy to shutter the EPA and HHS. But Homeland Security is their entire fearmongering pitch.
Keep this article in mind when people start bagging on Democrats,
“Against this backdrop, Finkelstein had an epiphany. What if the veil of the conspiracy were to be lifted and a shadowy figure appear, controlling everything? The puppet master. Someone who not only controlled the “big capital” but embodied it. A real person. A Hungarian. Strange, yet familiar.
That person was Soros, Finkelstein told Birnbaum.
Birnbaum was mesmerized: Soros was the perfect enemy.
At the beginning, it almost didn’t make sense. Why campaign against a nonpolitician? Although he was born in Hungary, Soros hadn’t lived there in years. He was an old man, known all over the country as a patron of civil society. He had supported the opposition against the Communists before the fall of the Iron Curtain, and financed school meals for kids afterward. In Budapest, he had built one of the best universities in Eastern Europe.”
@Barry: I was eating dinner at an (admittedly) upscale restaurant, and I overheard some loud, pompous assholes behind me blame TSA agents for living beyond their means. I would’ve told them to shut up if they hadn’t decided on their own that blathering those sentiments loudly in the most liberal city in the US (this was in San Francisco a couple nights back) wasn’t the best idea and they should focus on enjoying their meal.
The point is, the dumb-as-rocks GOP – even if they have money – will always rationalize away the issue at hand.
This. I figure there’s about a 1 in 3 chance he’d sign whatever passes the House and the Senate, probably more if there’s a promise for negotiations on border security. There’s also the chance he’d just let it become law, washing his hands of the whole thing. And if he flourishes the veto pen, then it’s really all on him.
I think AOC figured out very quickly that she was going to be able to go a lot further by working within the Democratic Party than by allying herself with the remaining Bros. I still think that Cheryl was right back in December and Pelosi has taken AOC under her wing to mentor her.
The bots are trying to sow division, but I think they’re going to be a lot less successful than they were with candidates who wanted to continue to be outsiders to the party. AOC is learning to be an insider, and some of her rabid fans (supported by Russian bots) are starting to turn on her because of it.
I also have a few paranoid thoughts about her campaign, but I don’t think she’s listening to those advisors as much anymore.
You’d think a guy named “Finkelstein” would have some clue why it might be a bad idea to claim that a rich, powerful Jew is the secret puppetmaster behind world events, but apparently not. Christ, what an asshole. ?
@Mnemosyne: If I were a smart, young, rising politician, I’d find something experienced to learn from, even if I didn’t agree with them all the time, and suck them dry. If they’re willing to talk to you, take the chance, learn all that you can.
I think Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is smart.
I’ve noticed this formulation being used increasingly in the last few weeks as his profile has been rising. Apparently he (or someone in the R caucus) was afraid he would somehow be confused with those other Kennedys.
@Mnemosyne: Stephen Miller would like a word with you …
@Jinchi: Hear hear.
I also think that Nancy Pelosi is the best politician we’ve had in 50 years — Obama included — and that she recognizes raw talent when she sees it. AOC has a lot to learn and is smart enough to realize it.
Meh. Miller loves to be hated, so he’s never had any problem working with neo-Nazis.
Control of the U.S. Senate in 2021 is why it would be very bad for Sherrod Brown to be our presidential nominee next year. If he becomes president, we lose his seat, period. The governor of Ohio gets to pick anyone he wants to serve until a 2022 special election, regardless of party. And that governor is a Republican, so the seat will be filled by a Republican. We’re starting from a baseline of needing to flip at least three seats to get to a 50 seat + Democratic VP majority. Then factor in the near certain loss of Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama, and that means we need 4 seats to get to 50. President Sherrod Brown takes that up to 5 seats needed to get a 50 seat majority. The odds of us flipping five seats are very, very slim. Colorado and Maine, sure… but everything after that gets tougher. North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, and Georgia are all possibilities, but flipping 3 of those 4 is going to be a mighty tall order. As it stands today, I think we’ve got about a 50-50 shot of regaining senate control (assuming we win the presidency) if we only need to flip 4 seats. If we have to flip 5 seats instead of 4, I think the odds drop to 33% chance at best.
And none of that takes into account that a 50 seat majority means Joe Manchin can singlehandedly kill any progressive legislation or nomination put forward.
Don’t run, Sherrod, don’t run. We need you in the U.S. Senate.