In 1939, the Soviet Union formally allied with Nazi Germany and agreed on how to split up the countries located between them. Immediately after, Germany invaded Poland. It is generally thought to be the beginning of World War II. Russia did not acknowledge the existence of the secret protocol on dividing Europe until 1989.
But that is not what Vladimir Putin wants you to believe. No, it was dastardly France, United Kingdom, the United States, and others who joined up with Hitler first at Munich, leaving the poor Soviet Union with no choice! Putin has mentioned this in several speeches, and in the last several weeks, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has joined in.
And they’re dissing diplomats who disagree with them.
The nations Russia has accused of starting World War II are pushing back.
Even Germany…
And, of course, a lot more from amateur and professional historians on Twitter. If you ever wanted to learn more about the beginnings of World War II, this is your big chance.
It’s hard to know what is motivating this propaganda storm from Russia. Here’s a person I trust.
That’s a little unclear, but I think the second sentence is intended to say that when Russia wants to use WW2 to gain friends, it usually talks about its sacrifices rather than the war’s origins.
There is speculation, as you see in the Dalsjö tweet, that it’s in preparation for some sort of military action from Russia. I tend to doubt that – Russia doesn’t need that kind of trouble right now. OTOH, Putin has been feeling cocky about his new weapons designed to deter the United States.
Baud
Now taking bets on which position the U.S. president will take.
hells littlest angel
Russia, in short: We have always been at war with Oceania.
Mike J
@Baud: The white supremacist US president will take the same position as rose twitter.
Matt McIrvin
@Mike J: It was all the Xinjiang Uighurs’ fault?
Mike in NC
Will 2020 be the year that some idiots start World War III over some inane Twitter argument? Who could have predicted that 2019 would end with the US Embassy in Baghdad being stormed? Our government is controlled by imbeciles and religious extremists, which is not a good omen.
Thank God for Jared, though.
Baud
@Mike J: I didn’t realize Rose Twitter had taken a position on who was responsible for WWII (other than Chelsea Clinton, of course).
randal m sexton
I wonder how they will explain this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre
wvng
My step-grandmother believed till her dying day that Poland instigated the hostilities. Her belief came from within Nazi Germany, where she was raising two young girls and a military age son. Her son died in the war, her husband died after the war in a Soviet prisoner of war camp. She immigrated to the US with her daughters in the early 50s, one of those daughters married my father after my mother died. Oma was a lovely woman, but the Nazi propaganda machine permanently influenced her understanding of the world. I think of this often as I see the influence right wing propaganda has on so many of our fellow Americans.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: This just in from the White House: “Did we give up after we bombed Pearl Harbor, no we didn’t…”
debbie
Putin’s really just like Trump. Neither can let go of anything ever.
Baud
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Haha. There was a Democrat in the White House at the time, you know.
RepubAnon
My guess is that Putin’s preparing the groundwork for seizing the Ukraine. Putin’s waiting for Trump to trigger a war with Iran – this will drain all the US military’s resources, opening the path for Putin to seize Ukraine.
I expect China’s eying Taiwan as well – let the US lose a carrier or two fighting Iran, and all bets are off.
patrick II
the economic ties of large corporations to nazi germany were real, particularly ford, standard oil, and Koch daddy. Many of our corporate leaders had some sympathy for fascist germany and against communist russia, and against fdr for that matter, which makes it ironic that today the sympathies have reversed, with a significant number of our billionaires having sympathy towards fascist russia and treat the liberal democracy germany, and socialist europe generally, with some disdain. their anipathy towards a democratic president remains the same.
patroclus
I thought WWII started with the Marco Polo Bridge incident on July 7, 1937 (before both Munich and Molotov-Ribbentrop) outside of Beijing when the Japanese and Chinese fired on each other and, unlike prior similar instances going back to 1928, it wasn’t quickly resolved with China apologizing and granting some sort of concessions to the Japanese. It’s rather typical that the Russians, who didn’t even declare war on Japan until after the atomic bombs were dropped, would focus merely on the European aspect of it. Shanghai fell in August; Nanjing in December/January.
The U.S. Congress rejected the proposed Ludlow Amendment in early 1938 (which would have required a national referendum to enter any war) and enacted the Vinson Act (authorizing construction of a Navy notwithstanding the limitations prescribed by the Washington treaty) that Spring as a direct reaction.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@debbie:
Putin isn’t as smart as he and everybody else thinks he is
Yes, I’m sure those expanded Arctic waterways will be super useful when most of the rest of the world is rendered uninhabitable and the global economy is virtually nonexistent, Putie Poot ?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I’ve been informed that ALL WARS are Democrat wars.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@patroclus: You could say it goes back to the annexation of Korea in 1910.
MattF
Putin is attempting to absolve Stalin of a long list of crimes. The effort is futile, but he’s not going to stop trying. The current best source on Stalin is Stephen Kotkin’s biography-in-progress, now up to volume two, with the final part, volume three, to be published soon. A lecture by Kotkin at the IAS offers a preview. Highly recommended.
Roger Moore
If there’s one thing Western historians seem to agree on, it’s that it was a terrible mistake to try to appease Hitler, so bringing up Munich as the real start of WWII seems like a really foolish bit of propaganda if the next move is some kind of military action.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
He has been “acting” cocky. Do we have any information on how he is actually “feeling”?
Trump is constantly bluffing. Seems like Putin’s approach too – constantly gas-lighting the Russian people and the rest of the world. So I suspect his words may differ somewhat from how he really feels.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@patrick II: Seems consistent, not ironic. Their loyalty is to wealth and power. Not to any nationality or people.
patroclus
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Possibly, but the 1910 Treaty merely formalized the suzerainty established by the 1876 Treaty when Korea effectively fell into the Japanese sphere of influence. The Russians tried to challenge Japan in 1906 but failed miserably. Who teaches history to the Russian foreign ministry these days?
Roger Moore
@patrick II:
Their antipathy toward democratic government remains the same. They really don’t like the idea that hoi polloi get an equal say in things.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): The super-flu won’t respect borders and doesn’t care how rich and powerful you are.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Isn’t that what some Republicans during the Cold War actually said? I think it was Bob Dole. I know that there was an isolationist strand of thought in Republican politics during the Cold War that was marginalized for the most part.
It’s an interesting question if Robert Taft had somehow won the 1952 GOP nom, if Adlai Stephenson would have won the election
Gin & Tonic
@RepubAnon: Russia does not have the military strength to occupy Ukraine by force, and Putin will not accept the casualties that his forces will sustain. Even now, the deaths of Russian military in service of the Donbas occupation are hidden for internal political purposes. The further west he tries to move them, the stronger the resistance will become and the more Russians will be killed. There’s a reason (Adam has written on this extensively) Russia engages primarily in asymmetric and unconventional/hybrid warfare.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
a lot to digest here, but I’m stuck for the moment on the fact that Georgette Fucking Mosbacher is A) still a thing B) the United States Ambassador to Poland
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Roger Moore: This. They absolutely do not believe in democracy, even in our constrained, republican version of it as documented our beloved Constitution of the United States of America.
They do not respect the Constitution. They do not believe in America. They believe in preserving their own privilege, to the exclusion of all higher virtues. They are dangerous traitors to our Country, and must be taxed and regulated into submission.
Gin & Tonic
@patroclus:
My son has met and worked with some counterparts at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Their knowledge of history has some pretty large blind spots.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Roger Moore:
Appeasment was popular; people didn’t want war. I’ve read takes that say Chamberlain saw that appeasement was the least bad strategy possible. It was really just to buy time for rearmament.
If Britain and France had confronted Germany at Munich, it’s possible Hitler would have backed down, for the moment at least. It’s also possible, WW2 would have begun a year earlier and the Allies might have been even more fucked, but I’m not sure what Nazi Germany’s military capabilities were in 1938 compared to Britain and France’s
Roger Moore
@patroclus:
The USSR was very much interested in what was happening in China in the 1930s. They fought a series of battles against the Japanese in the vicinity of the Soviet/Manchurian border that ended with a significant Soviet victory. It scared the Japanese enough to enter into a non-aggression pact with the USSR that both sides upheld until 1945. FWIW, that non-aggression pact was significant for the European side of WWII. Something like 50% of US lend/lease aid to the USSR was shipped through Vladivostok, and by sending it on Soviet-flagged ships, it was able to make it through unmolested. The battle hardened troops from that conflict also made a big difference in the fighting around Moscow late in 1941.
Cheryl Rofer
@RepubAnon: Putin might be able to seize Ukraine, but he couldn’t hold it. And even seizing Ukraine would require draining troops from the China border, which I doubt he’s going to do. He just doesn’t have the military resources to do it.
ETA: I see Gin & Tonic beat me to it.
Cheryl Rofer
@MattF: Kotkin is good. I’ve been a fan since his Armageddon Averted, which is much shorter than the Stalin biography volumes, but an insightful picture of the transition from the Soviet Union.
Cheryl Rofer
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: Fair enough
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
I have to wonder: would your son’s counterparts consider disagreeing with their government and still being patriotic to be mutually exclusive?
Gin & Tonic
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): That’s a question you don’t ask of someone who’s trying to begin a career in the Foreign Service. Of any country.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
Exactly
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
Oh, I was just asking for your opinion. I wouldn’t expect that question would come up. Sorry for the confusion
brantl
@patrick II: Look up Smedley Butler (no, I’m not kidding) and BBC together, and listen to the BBC radio program about how Ford, and Prescott Bush and others intended to overthrow FDR, and how they were caught. An Eye-opener.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Cheryl Rofer:
I thought Putin and Xi were best buddies now. I’m guessing that’s either partly for show, they don’t fully trust each other, or both. Then again, nobody leaves their borders undermanned
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Cheryl Rofer: Thank you for the recommendation – I’ve been wanting to read a book about this topic. Just ordered from Powell’s, looking forward to reading.
Roger Moore
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
The war starting in 1938 is a very interesting counterfactual to consider. Neither side was as well armed as they were in 1939, but IIRC that extra year was relatively neutral in terms of their direct ability to rearm.
What wasn’t was the benefit Germany got by occupying Czechoslovakia without a fight. Czechoslovakia had relatively defensible borders, a modern military, and a substantial arms industry. Germany probably could have conquered them in 1938, but it wouldn’t have gone as easily as Poland did in 1939. It also would have killed a lot of Czechoslovak soldiers and destroyed a lot of their equipment and factories. By caving, Britain and France gave all those troops, material, and factories to Germany intact.
scav
Shit stirrers stir shit.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Just like two temporarily-allied mob bosses are “friends”.
VOR
@Gin & Tonic: Several months ago I had a conversation with a Russian colleague at a work social event. She reeled off a calendar-based conspiracy theory, I think the Fomenko New Chronology, as something she was taught in school, a settled fact like gravity. She was probably a teenager when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991.
Roger Moore
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Yeah, about the same way Stalin and Hitler were best buddies after the Molotov/Ribbentrop pact.
Feathers
Interesting. I rewatched The Unbearable Lightness of Being last night.* At the time it was OK, interesting to watch, but had so little of what made the book great. Now, I don’t really remember what the better stuff in the book was, but watching the film I couldn’t help but feel that all of the characters fervent belief that Communist oppression was destroying their lives was cloaking their childhood trauma from World War II. I found myself wondering how old each of them had been and what kind of war they had had. They were all acting out, but with no reference to WWII. I’m going to have to reread the book. I did not remember the ending at all (basically the whole part at the farm).
Russia is a dangerously traumatized nation. (Says the almost was a Russian studies major, but flunked Russian 300.)
*It’s leaving the Criterion Channel tonight.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Roger Moore: Zing!
Martin
Well, it’s working.
I don’t pretend that those cadets were actual Nazis, though likely a few were. I don’t pretend that the claims of a number of them that they feared retaliation weren’t true. But this has become at least acceptable enough for the idea to be openly floated to the group, and for everyone including the photographer and everyone else up the chain to shake their head, but go along anyway.
And honestly, that’s all Putin needs. Hook into the 5% that don’t have the requisite filters or moral guardrails to resist, and trust enough of the other 95% will see it as ‘bad, but not worth sacrificing myself over’ and just give it a pass. Seems to be working wonders in the GOP.
Fair Economist
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Hitler told his generals he *would* back down. Germany would have been much worse off fighting in 1938 because it was much further back in rearmament. Indeed, a very large proportion of what was used to invade France was either seized from or made in Czechoslovakia, including nearly a third of the tanks and half the ammunition.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@VOR:
Apparently, 30% of Russians believe that conspiracy theory.
I guess radiocarbon dating is also a big conspiracy too
feebog
Somehow I have to believe this is more about Ukraine than anything else. I did a deep dive earlier in the week into the Qanon rabbit hole, following multiple threads. A common theme is that the Ukraine “Deep State” is run by Nazis with the intent of overthrowing the current government. Who better to “save” Ukraine from the Nazis than the hero from the East, Vald Putin.
Baud
@VOR:
That’s an accurate historical timeline on Flat Earth.
Rudy didn’t invent the tactic.
MattF
@VOR: Um, wow. Never heard of this before, it’s apparently one of those ‘secret history’ narratives that only the initiates have heard of. I’m gobsmacked to hear that Kasparov believed in some of it.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Roger Moore:
@Fair Economist:
That makes sense. I do remember reading somewhere about Czechoslovakia having a large military industry complex.
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
@Roger Moore:
Yeah. “The enemy of enemy is my friend…”
Fair Economist
@VOR: That “chronology” is, literally, nuttier than creationism. The Roman empire is fictitious? OMG, that’s so nuts.
anarchoRex
@RepubAnon: It’s extremely unlikely the US would suffer much damage against it’s blue water force at the hands of Iran. Ground forces, on the other hand…
chris
@VOR: Thank you, I’ve been looking for something to believe in since I finally had to admit that the Earth is round.//
Seriously, thanks, this explains a lot about Russia today. Now that they are testing their own private internet prepare for even more weirdness.
Mike in DC
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
For what it’s worth, in the computer grand strategy game Hearts of Iron, the annexation of Austria and Czechoslovakia does result in an increase in troop strength and the acquisition of substantial numbers of vehicles and war materials.
The game is insanely detailed.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Fair Economist: Bug-fuck nuts? Absolutely!
Nuttier than creationism? Arguably, yes. At least creationism is an idea whose establishment and popularity predated our scientific understanding of geology and astrophysics. This “chronology” shit was made up within the last few hundred years, and popularized in the last few decades! Yikes.
MattF
OT. Susan Collins’ brow is furrowed.
schrodingers_cat
It is new year in India. I posted some pics and New Year’s wishes
(Stained glass is from the Cricket Club of India and the other photo is CST, which used to be VT or Victoria Terminus)
anarchoRex
I think it’s pretty wild that, as a bunch of Americans (I assume), we’re pontificating on what we believe to be the truth of global history. As the 1619 project shows, we’ve barely begun to understand our own history. As always, we opine first, and study after.
Mary G
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@MattF: She is very concerned about the behavior on both sides.
VOR
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: America has our own historical conspiracies. Another colleague, born and raised in Georgia (Atlanta suburbs), went on about how Lincoln was a tyrant who started the Civil War while those noble Southerners were just fighting for the principle of States Rights. Had never heard of the Keystone speech. Wasn’t aware Lincoln hadn’t been inaugurated yet when they seceded.
patroclus
@Mary G: Those polls are interesting – especially coming after Biden promised the world that he would definitively appoint a Republican V-P (hey, I’m just going with the interpretation given to it by Bernistas on the GOS). I guess all those Republicans are swinging to Biden now – he sure is a canny politician!
chopper
@randal m sexton:
“fake news!”
Fair Economist
@Mary G: One of the replies pointed out that pollster had Romney over Obama in 2012 by 6 points.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@anarchoRex: There’s a difference between 1) honest critique that is genuinely intended to improve our shared understanding of the truth, and 2) using the presence of imperfections and biases in our historical scientific enterprise of truth-seeking, to call into question the entire premise.
#2 benefits the powerful, because if there is no collective pursuit of a shared understanding of what is true, anything can be made to be “true” (with enough power).
Too often, critique is not used for improvement, but for destruction.
Let us welcome critique that is given in good faith, for the purpose of improvement.
Let us challenge critique that is intended only to sow discord or to protect the powerful.
Russian critique of US foreign policy most certainly falls in category #2.
Roger Moore
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
Sure, and geology and astrophysics (and archaeology, paleontology, etc.) are require a lot of inference from fragmentary evidence that is much harder for a layman to interpret and understand. In contrast, history is based on written records produced by human beings. To ignore it, you have to accept those written records are fabrications, but once you do that there’s no reason to accept any reconstruction of the past.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@anarchoRex: Oh you sweet summer child.
Millennium Challenge 2002
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Mary G: That Virginia poll is fucking scary. I don’t like how close Florida is, either, but it’s no surprise.
We must win Virginia. I really want to win Florida too.
This won’t be easy, but we can do it.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@VOR: No kidding. At least that one’s so obviously self-serving, it’s a little more understandable…
DCrefugee
I want to think actors like Putin and China see the end of Trump’s presidency as a greater possibility today than it was, say, six months go. If so, they may want to take advantage of a leadership-weakened U.S. to get in some licks before the window of opportunity closes.
2020 could be gnarly.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Roger Moore:
Hey! Which joker buried these Dinosaur bones down here?
Mike in NC
I seem to recall that while Obama was in office, hardly a week went by without Republicans declaring him to be the “new Neville Chamberlain” for some reason. It really got old. He didn’t even carry an umbrella.
Immanentize
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
Simmer down Spartacus. It’s a way out poll from a +R pollster. It’s goal is to freak you, personally, out.
One thing I have been wondering about polls. In many states, there have been reversals of voter suppression efforts (both Florida and VA are among the states). But if a poll is using a “likely voter” filter, they inevitably kick out the opinions of people who haven’t voted recently. I wonder how that will play out this year.
cresttwo
Putin is nothing like Trump. Actually has an education and a strategy, and he reads.
As to WWII, this Stalin-worshipping bunch of murderers in charge of Russia, for the moment, can’t exactly explain how the Soviet Union was ‘forced’ by the Nazis to occupy half of Poland in 1939. And Stalin basically did the same thing to the Ukranians [more than 5 million] in the 20s and 30s that Hitler did to the Jews, except instead of gas he starved them to death. Its not a defense of one monster when you refuse to minimize the crimes of another.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Immanentize:
It’s cool. But we need to get ready to fight hard next year. (I can still say that for a few more hours!)
Unfortunately, other December polls at 538 for VA and FL look very similar. Trump beats or ties all candidates not named “Joe”, but by varying degrees. (Warren looks particularly weak in FL.) Biden is consistently ahead of Trump in both states, but only by a few points.
I know it’s just a few polls, but it is concerning and should motivate us to action.
Cacti
You’re trying to troll Boob in Putinland into showing up, aren’t you?
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Unfortunately, there’s still going to be plenty of voter suppression. Don’t try to “unskew” the polls. Just take them with a grain of salt, watch for big-picture trends, and keep fighting hard no matter how far ahead you might appear to be.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Cacti: It has been a while since we’ve been graced with his prose.
mrmoshpotato
@Mike in NC: Don’t forget Obummer’s constant apology tour!
Hannity: Obama’s apology tour!
Obama going around the world: Sorry for W and the fucking Rethuglicans.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Mike in NC: Trump carries an umbrella, but he can’t figure out how to close it.
anarchoRex
@patroclus: if those polls were released today they were likely completed before he was asked that inane question.
Dorothy A. Winsor
OT: Just got back from seeing “It’s a Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” with my DIL. My favorite scene is when Mr Rogers is on the NY subway, someone recognizes him, and whole car sings “Won’t You Be My Neighbor.”
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@mrmoshpotato: You know, we’re going to need another one of those apology tours soon.
Obama got the Nobel Peace Prize, just for “presidenting-while-not-being-GWB”.
What great honor will the international community bestow on our next non-Trump/Trumpist President?
anarchoRex
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: I don’t see any critique happening in this thread. Though I don’t disagree with your premise. Ideally this thread would encourage people to study the history of WW2.
planetjanet
@Mary G:
This is just depressing.
Mike in NC
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: He or she won’t get laughed at while bragging at the UN.
anarchoRex
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: I mean this exercise was 20 years ago. Iran has had its capabilities degraded since then by heavy sanctions, while the US has advanced. Plus, I sincerely doubt the US took the results of this wargame and didn’t do anything to prepare for the scenario. If this is the best “red team” could do under ideal war game conditions, it’s not likely they could reach the same level of performance today. Do you have something more recent?
WaterGirl
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:
I am curiously. Were you formerly disgruntled, but now you are not? Or are you still disgruntled, but you are no longer in Oregon?
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
LOL – That’s a hilarious image.
But I’m sure they’ll throw in a light-hearted joke somewhere, and this time the international community will be laughing with our President, instead of at him.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: Oh Christ, what have I done? You’re checking into the origins of other commenters’ ‘nyms now?
Dmbeaster
@feebog: The Ukraine as led by Nazis theme has been Russian disinformation ever since the 2014 revolt. No surprise that Russian trolls are part of Qanon.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@WaterGirl: That’s a great story :)
My first nym, back in 2015, was “Disgruntled former Baud supporter”. As the primary moved along, and I saw how much unnecessary grief Hillary was getting, I got a “Hillary” bumper sticker for my car, and changed my Balloon Juice nym to “Formerly disgruntled Clinton supporter”.
Following the conclusion of the election, I updated my nym to “Formerly disgruntled in Oregon” (my home state).
I’ve really come around on Baud in the meantime, so perhaps it’s time for another change? ;)
Omnes Omnibus
There is an argument to be made that the Spanish Civil War was really the beginning of WWII, and, I believe, some even argue that WWI never really ended.
Omnes Omnibus
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: Graced?
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Omnes Omnibus: It’s okay – I’m opening up a little more, as I binge-comment for NYE.
So much more efficient on a laptop than on a phone!
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Omnes Omnibus: Forgot the snark tag, apparently.
RepubAnon
@Gin & Tonic: I agree that they aren’t likely to send massed tank formations – but that’s not how Russia works these days. They’d probably send in the “little green men” again, after continuing their cyberdisruption campaigns. Get the populace sufficiently distracted, and it doesn’t take much military muscle.
Omnes Omnibus
OT: I am off on my last trip to the gym in 2019. Wish me luck.
Mike in NC
Having been to Florida many times, I’d venture that a Democrat winning there in 2020 could be a tall order. Doesn’t Fat Bastard own a bunch of properties there, including Doral and Mar-A-Lago? Plus lots of ratfucking by the state GOP.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Maybe? I don’t know, I looked at his (?) nym just then and for some reason I actually read all the words, and wondered.
WaterGirl
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: I didn’t mean to pry! :-)
RepubAnon
@anarchoRex: The problem will be sending a blue water force to fight in a brown water environment. The Persian Gulf is a very different environment than, say, the Pacific.
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
The blog has been working really well for me the last couple of days. Тьфу, тьфу, тьфу, не сглазить
hawk
@RepubAnon: That’s some narrow, shallow shit right there.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Omnes Omnibus: You know what you did.
japa21
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Mrs. Japa and I really enjoyed the movie. Read the original article it was based on and then the differences between the movie and real life. Most of the events involving Rogers were based on actual events, including the one you are talking about.
raven
That’s some narrow, shallow shit right there.
Jinchi
A state poll, conducted nearly a year before the general election, and before the first primary vote is cast, comparing multiple matchups with the incumbent president — is not predictive of the general election.
It’s a measure of where the candidates stand relative to one another and whether each candidate’s voters would be comfortable voting for one of the others in the general, if their favorite should lose.
Honestly, what I read from those polls is that every major Democrat is within the margin of error of each other, despite the fact that Joe Biden is leading by 10-20 points in both states. This suggests that Democrats are already prepared to unite behind the nominee, even if they’re currently at odds over the best candidate.
For comparison, in December 2007, Fox had :
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Omnes Omnibus:
Good luck, we’re all counting on you.
jlowe
Hi Cheryl, nice write-up. I don’t think knowledgeable historians say that the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact triggered World War II. The Germans and Russians, pariahs of Europe, had been deep in each other’s business for years with military, trade and diplomatic missions by the time the pact had been signed.
It was a thieves’ bargain: the ink was hardly dry when Germany turned to preparing Generalplan Ost, for the ethnic cleansing and colonization of Russia. The Russians weren’t any more trustworthy: trading strategic raw materials to the Germans to buy time to prepare for war; later standing by while the Germans and Allies battled each other, hoping for the Germans to become exhausted in that effort – little recognizing that they might want that Second Front some day.
raven
@Omnes Omnibus: I’ve really crashed and burned on the workouts the last month or so.
J R in WV
@anarchoRex:
As a former member of the USN I would like to believe that, but I don’t. Our Naval leadership is nore interested in lining their own pockets than keeping our fleet in fighting shape, see Pro Publica’s reporting on a huge array of accidents and deaths directly linked to insufficient maintenance and training, without any war going on.
Also see the Millennium Challenge 2002 (MC02) war games story as reported at Wikipedia, wherein a retired Marine General used unexpected tactics to destroy the US Fleet preparing to attack Iran.
Currently the Navy can’t keep its warships out of the way of commercial cargo traffic, let alone fight a real war!
ETA: I fear that the Admiralty would desire to make a nuclear attack on any nation that successfully sinks a couple of carrier battle groups, which would be very bad news world-wide.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: I was going to warn you about not jinxing it, but then I used google translate. Is that last phrase the equivalent of throwing salt over your shoulder? :-)
Cheryl Rofer
@jlowe: The top post says:
That’s not the same as “triggered.” A couple of commenters have suggested other beginnings. I purposely made my statement vague and general.
Ken
It’s especially weird since for centuries, the Russians considered themselves the successors to the Roman Empire. “Tsar” even derives from “Caesar” (by way of the Balkans).
raven
@J R in WV: “successfully sinks a couple of carrier battle groups,”
That’s an awful lot of people going down with the ships. What would you suggest the response be?
Roger Moore
@Omnes Omnibus:
I haven’t seen anyone who claimed that WWI never ended, but I certainly have seen the claim that WWII was effectively a resumption of WWI. That’s similar, but not quite the same claim. I tend to see them as similar to the various Anglo-French wars of the 17th, 18th, and early 19th Century. They were driven by the same underlying international tensions, and later wars fed off the resentments left by earlier ones, but each war existed as its own event. For the same reason, I am sympathetic to the view that the war in Europe and Africa should be seen as separate from the war in Asia and the Pacific, even though some countries were involved in both wars at the same time.
Warblewarble
We’ve always been at war with(fill the blanks as required)
zhena gogolia
@WaterGirl:
It’s like kina hora — don’t put the evil eye on it. (The first phrase is more like the salt.)
Another Scott
@J R in WV: I remember some military analyst saying sometime before Iraq War #N that the US Navy would never put a carrier in the Persian Gulf because it was (roughly) “too small and the ship would be a sitting duck”. Of course, we have actually put them in The Gulf, but the warning still holds – ships like that are designed for blue water, not (relative) bath tubs.
LATimes, from 2007:
re your ETA, I’d like to think that even the loss of a carrier wouldn’t automatically lead to a nuclear response, but with Donnie one can’t count on much of anything… :-( Even without going nuclear, Iran would suffer a punishing bombing campaign though (which might, unfortunately, dramatically change the US domestic political environment – especially with FTFNYT cheering it on).
Fingers crossed.
Cheers,
Scott.
patrick II
If Trump gets impeached and Pence becomes president, can Trump still lgally run again for president? It seems that, if legal, to be the most logical outcome. If he becomes president again before he is indicted, do we have to impeach again? If indicted but not yet tried, can you prosecute a sitting president?
Another Scott
@patrick II: As part of the result of the Senate trial, he can be barred from holding any office under the United States.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
Roger Moore
@RepubAnon:
I don’t think that’s going to work nearly as well for the rest of Ukraine as it did for the areas currently under Russian influence. The Donbass has long standing cultural and linguistic ties to Russia, and tension between Russian and Ukrainian speakers have been one of the major issues driving Ukrainian politics since its independence. That made it relatively easy for Russia to foment and take advantage of unrest there. They aren’t going to be able to do the same thing in the rest of the country, since A) they’ve already gotten the parts where this is most likely to succeed and B) the rest of the country is angry enough at Russia that they aren’t likely to stop paying attention.
Denali
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon,
The real question is when were you gruntled?
patrick II
@Another Scott:
Thx.
Cacti
@patrick II: Depends on the Senate. If convicted and removed, the Senate can also choose to bar the removed officer from holding future office.
ETA: I see someone beat me to it.
Ambidextrous Media Masturbator (Both Sides!)
Simply incredible. I’ve been studying just this, in depth, for the last two years. All the original source documents are there. The version of history Russia is promulgating is simply not true.
I’ll leave their possible motivation for doing so as an exercise for the reader.
Another Scott
Reuters:
Happy Happy, Joy Joy. :-/
Cheers,
Scott.
The Moar You Know
Simply incredible. I’ve been studying just this, in depth, for the last two years. All the original source documents are there. The version of history Russia is promulgating is simply not true.
I’ll leave their possible motivation for doing so as an exercise for the reader.
Kathleen
@Baud: Poland attacked Pearl Harbor?
Roger Moore
@Another Scott:
He may be, but this is not required. In the vanishingly unlikely event that the Senate decides to throw Trump out of office, I expect they would also make him ineligible in the future. We talk about Trump creating a circus atmosphere today, but can you imagine how crazy things would get if he were trying to win office again after being impeached and removed? The Republicans in the Senate would want to avoid that at any cost.
Cliosfanboy
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: I live in Virginia and that poll is bullshit. We just took over the Virginia legislature for the first time in decades and now trump will win the state? No way. He lost it to Hillary in 16 and the heavily-populated northern counties hate trump even more now than they did then.
Kathleen
@debbie: They need to get a room. At Mired Sloggo. Or wherever the bedbugs are.
Jay C
@Kathleen:
Well, yeah! That’s why both the Soviets and the Germans were justified in going after them!!
PS: this is snark, but I would not be surprised if this “argument”, made in “seriousness” isn’t actually Out There someplace…
Bill Arnold
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Dendrochronology (tree ring dating) is pretty solid and getting better, so that Russian theory is BS. (IMO)
debbie
@zhena gogolia:
I say that (in English) all the time!
Kathleen
@Jay C: There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that you spoke truth there!
Marcopolo
@Omnes Omnibus:last trip to the gym of the decade, you mean, right?
I’m off to my NYE gathering. We’ll be playing board games for the next several hours. Seeing as how the regular hosts (for the past 2 decades) have the flu & the location was changed only around noon today it will be interesting to see who actually shows.
Hope everyone here has a nice last NYE of the decade. Not quite sure where a lot of the time went.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
The Russians seem to be forgetting that a big part of that pact was Russia giving the Nazis the resources they needed to fight the British.
Omnes Omnibus
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I appreciate it. Thank you.
Matt McIrvin
@Cliosfanboy: There have been some recent polls showing Trump winning the national popular vote against basically everyone on the D side, too.
I’m skeptical of these head-to-head polls during primary season because they seem to just track how well everyone is doing in the primary, rather than really giving any extra information. There could be some “who gives a crap, my 401(k) is doing fine” going on in rich places like Virginia. But how Trump’s fortunes vs. the Democrats could fluctuate so much in the absence of any real change in his approval ratings escapes me. It’s probably mostly that nobody’s run away with the hearts of the primary electorate
I do think Trump is probably going to win. But that’s just because I see Ohio and Florida as irretrievably lost, and without them, the Democrats need to pull off a sweep of the other swing states that seems unlikely–particularly since Wisconsin is just rigged.
Omnes Omnibus
@Matt McIrvin: True, Wisconsin didn’t elect a Democratic governor recently and that bastard Walker is still running things. Oh, wait…. But do carry on with the “all is lost” thing.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Denali: I’m pretty gruntled now, despite all that’s going on in the world at the moment… 2019 has been a pretty good year for my family, all things considered.
Jamey
In post-Soviet Russia, history rewrites YOU!
Philbert
@Matt McIrvin: playing on 270towin, if them Dems take Penn and Michigan and Omaha, and the GOP keeps Wisconsin, 269 269 Electral College tie! To the House and T win…
Ken_L
Russia is half right. In early 1939 it did propose a mutual defense treaty with France and Great Britain. The latter countries were lukewarm and discussions dragged on. One of the key sticking points was Poland’s point blank refusal to consider allowing Russian troops onto its territory if war broke out, which effectively made it impossible for Russia to help France if Germany struck west. Finally the two Western powers sent a delegation to Moscow consisting of comparative nonentities and Stalin got the message they weren’t serious. If they’d sent their foreign ministers instead, seized with the urgency of finalizing an alliance and telling the Poles if they wanted help they’d bloody well do what they were told, history might have turned out very differently.
None of that, of course, excuses or justifies the deal Molotov and Ribbentrop stitched up in a few days to clear the way for the invasion and partition of Poland.
Marshall Eubanks
Everything said above on both sides is basically correct. The Soviets did want to enter into a deal with Britain and France to protect Czechoslovakia*, the British and the French did betray the Czechs, and the Soviets did enter into a deal with Nazi Germany to protect their asses. Which part of this history a side chooses to accentuate tends to depend on, well which side they are, but there was plenty of blame to go around.
* Read W. S. Churchill’s memoirs, which are scathing about how blithely the Soviet offers in 1938 were ignored by the Conservative Party in the UK.
Procopius
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
That’s a very interesting question. Shirer, in Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, says most of the Generals were ready to arrest Hitler and hand him over to the French when they responded to the occupation of the Rhineland, and then the French didn’t respond. I have the impression that in 1938 they were still terrified that this maniac was going to get them all killed, and besides that had no class. Even in 1939 they were worried about the French and British reaction.
HeartlandLiberal
So to the first Tweet quoted in the article by MFA Russia, I posted this reply:
I feel certain Putin will tell Donald Trump this is a lie, and Trump, of course, being the illiterate ignorant universal noob he is, he will believe him, and start using it as a talking point in his rallies.