I’m taking a sentence from a tweet that Anne Laurie embedded below, and highlighting the part that really bothers me:
The Bernie crowd wants to snow you into thinking the Biden surge is some K street conspiracy when in reality he has barely advertised because his campaign is so underresourced.
What a tragedy! Biden is “underresourced”. That makes it sound like being “underresourced” is similar to walking out your front door and having a bird shit on your head – something unfortunate over which you had no control.
Let me present a slightly different view: Biden’s campaign can’t raise money for shit. At the end of January, the last time campaigns reported, Biden had raised $68 mil. Warren: $91 mil. The Voldemort of the comments section: $132 mil. Maybe Biden had a huge February, and if he did I’ll eat humble pie, but I wasn’t once the King of Spain, so I doubt that will happen.
A further comment on those numbers: Biden was the frontrunner from the second he entered the race. He should be raking in the cash. Fucking Pete, a god damned nobody before he worked his ass off fundraising, raised $81 mil, and good for him. Warren and he-who-shall-not-be-named both are relying on individual donors, which means if Warren does well today (Dios mediante), she can expect a surge in donations, because all it takes for her to rake in some bucks is for the average Warren donor to decide to chip in the financial equivalent of one or two more Starbucks lattes. Both Warren and shh-don’t-say-it are using the same fundraising method that Barack Obama rode to victory in 2008, and it’s a very good way to raise money, especially for Democrats.
(This is not a moral argument, it is a pragmatic one. Democrats aren’t as rich as Republicans, but there are more of us. The solution is to find a way to make more people give much smaller individual donations, which Obama did.)
Let me ward off some usual objections on this:
- SuperPACs will swoop in and fix Biden’s campaign. Fuck to the no, compadres. SuperPACs are not supposed to coordinate with campaigns. Yeah, they do, but they still have their own agenda and campaigns need real dollars that they can control, especially to set up their ground game. Plus, if superPACs can contribute $1 billion to campaign ads, and your campaign can contribute $no billion, that’s worse than $1 billion and, say, $100 million, especially since your $100 million can be quickly targeted by your campaign without hinting to a SuperPAC.
- Some group or other will help organize the ground game. Na ganna happen. Those groups may help, but we need to have staffers on the ground from the presidential campaign to coordinate with them. And when it comes down to the nut cutting, as Dick Nixon would say, it’s better to have a lot of staffers you directly control.
- Biden’s fundraising will pick up now that he’s the front runner, and certainly in the general. ORLY? How? Biden’s circa-1996 campaign fundraising strategy seems to be to max out his donors, who can donate $2,800 in the primary, and $2,800 in the general. If nominated, the campaigns of Warren or the guy-who-has-the-same-last-name-as-the-founder-of-KFC, will probably get a lot of the $2,800 donors Biden would have gotten, along with their small dollar donors. If he’s nominated, Biden somehow needs to build all the machinery to get small donors to donate. It seems simple, but both of the small-dollar campaigns have been communicating with donors for years, and they have dialed in their electronic outreach to get the most happy meal equivalents from their donors.
- So does this make Bloomberg the best candidate? No, because money is a necessary but not sufficient condition to win an election, and all the money in the world isn’t going to re-animate Bloomberg’s corpse after his political career was murdered by Warren at the first debate in which he participated.
- Biden won in SC despite being “underresourced” so he can win anywhere despite that. Against money boy Trump, no fucking way.
If you are thinking of stanning for Biden because of some thought that he’s “electable”, whatever the fuck that means, consider that money is the only measurable component of the nebulous concept of “electability”. You gotta have cash to win. And Biden has very little of that, compared to the other candidates in the race.
Mnemosyne
What percentage of Sanders’ donations are being made in rubles using conveniently small multiple donations that can’t be traced?
There’s a reason the guy’s bad report from the FEC was over 500 pages long. There’s a reason he’s had to pay fines for breaking donation laws pretty much every year since 2016.
Orange Is The New White
Well, then I guess I’m going to have to send him some money.
R-Jud
Is… is that a Moxy Fruvous reference?
(You could actually probably do well by making one of your campaign promises to give every new baby a chocolate eclair.)
Served
The complete newsbomb the Biden campaign orchestrated yesterday was the best campaign maneuvering of the primary thus far, so I have a little better hope as to how his campaign would fare in the general.
Money is an issue for Joe, though. I have to think they are going to have to roll out President Obama in any attempt to open the small-donor fundraising hose. Gathering the dropped out candidates might be a band-aid until a candidate is chosen, and President Obama feels okay about jumping in. If this race does go to the convention, that will be a problem.
MisterForkbeard
Eh. I think #3 is actually wrong. Biden has suffered from being the ‘default’ choice in a really good field. Now that he’s the frontrunner, a lot of other longshot candidates are out, and people are more excited about him. You can see this in his large amount of donations in the past few days.
So while Biden doesn’t have the fundraising moxy that Sanders does, he’ll do just fine going forward.
gene108
@R-Jud:
I don’t think it’d work. Mom would eat the eclair before the baby’s old enough to have solid food.
************************************
I think, should Biden become the nominee, a lot of fundraising that will go his way. Also, Obama took money from big donors, as well as small donors. He didn’t run his 2008 campaign only on small donations.
the Conster
$280 million disappeared into Sanders’ last campaign, and almost none of it went to GOTV. Millions disappeared into Old Towne Media – the shell media buying company set up by Jane Sanders and Tad Devine, and millions disappeared into Devine’s other media org. Do we know yet what shell companies are being used by the Sanders campaign this cycle for Jane’s dark money grift and grab?
download my app in the app store mistermix
@R-Jud: Yes.
@MisterForkbeard: Maybe but Biden had a lot more support in the polls than Mayor Pete, and Pete did a hell of a lot better job raising money. Is the idea that only supporters of other candidates who dropped out were inclined to give money?
the Conster
@Mnemosyne:
BINGO.
dww44
Wow, Mistermix, what crawled under you craw? I honestly did not realize you were such a committed Bernie supporter that you’d give vent to your feelings about Biden with such vehemence. I will support Biden over Bernie, in the end, not because of money or the lack of it, but because I believe that his candidacy can unite the big tent Democratic party. Do you believe that Bernie can? Honestly.
the Conster
Sanders is being supported by dark money orgs like Our Revolution, Sunshine Movement, and others. OR is being sued for campaign violations, which is hand waved away by Bernieworld. The fact that they’re called anodyne names like People Power for Bernie is irrelevant to the fact that we don’t know where the money is coming from, or from whom. Stop being so gullible about Sanders and his money. He’s being supported by the Russians.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/outside-groups-unite-back-bernie-sanders-democratic-attacks-him-mount-n1126926
debbie
Hogwash. If this were true, Bloomberg would be our candidate.
Cacti
Could we add a “Sour grapes from a Bernie Bro” tag to anything from MM?
Kent
Two separate questions here that are getting conflated.
First, the primary race. Biden is under-resourced so he can’t possibly beat Sanders. Well, I guess we shall see. That’s hardly an argument not to support him if he is your choice for the primary now that we are essentially down to 4 candidates. If money was the actual criterion then Bloomberg has it locked up.
Second, the general election. No matter who the candidate is, they are basically going to have to start over for the general and raise hundreds of millions more. Obama and Clinton spent what? At least $500 million each in the general? Sanders is going to be starting from scratch too if he is the nominee. Probably the best weapons for raising big cash are going to be the surrogates like Obama and maybe even Hillary if she wants to get involved. I would expect a full-court fundraising press from the entire Dem establishment. And frankly more so for Biden than Sanders.
Just One More Canuck
@R-Jud:
Given Jian Ghomeshi’s unfortunate history post Moxy Fruvous, perhaps not the best choice
MisterForkbeard
I also think the larger point still stands as well – Biden’s triumph in South Carolina was not a case of corporatists and rich people throwing money at him and trying to buy the race. It really was a bunch of democrats (including both party leaders and a lot of base voters) piling in once they decided Biden was the right choice.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Remember in “A River Runs Through It” where the Dad Tom Skerritt was trying to teach not Brad Pitt how to write and the first three or four lessons was to just hand him back his unread drafts saying, “Less”
Brachiator
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
Interesting stuff about Biden campaign finances. Thanks for an insightful perspective.
Certainly, the Democrats have to get their shit together if Biden is going to continue, and if he becomes the nominee.
janesays
Obama isn’t going to directly jump in until he is 100% certain that his jumping in won’t have a direct impact on the nomination process. More precisely, don’t expect a formal endorsement for any candidate until a candidate either: a) has reached 50%+1 in the pledged delegate race; or b) has been chosen as the nominee after a brokered convention.
He may or may not be putting his thumb on the scale behind the scenes for Biden, but he’s not going to come out and do it directly at any point. He really is a firm believer in letting the Democratic base pick their nominee at the voting booth rather than inserting himself into the process and telling them who they should pick.
download my app in the app store mistermix
@MisterForkbeard: Yes, the general refutation of the argument attributed to Voldemort supporters is correct – Biden sure didn’t win in SC by spending money. But we’re vetting a candidate for the general election, and he’s failing an important test.
@Just One More Canuck: I forgot that asshole was in that band. Yuck.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: You know in the Simpsons where Bart says “damned if you do, damned if you don’t”? I normally don’t put in long refutations of common (stupid and not-stupid) arguments, but even if I do, most of our less thoughtful commenters breeze right by them.
206inKY
You forgot #6: Bernie bros and miscellaneous Biden haters will keep making posts like this one, which will inspire former Klob/Pete/Harris/Beto supporters to drop some cash into Joe’s campaign every time.
Worked for me! $100 and two Biden 2020 yard signs.
A Ghost To Most
So, is the next mistermix post about how the Democratic party should abandon its rules now that it favors BS?
JMS
They would all struggle. Better hope for an act of God to bring Trump down.
khead
Lol. Forget voting. Don’t you fucking rubes know Biden was broke on Friday?
There are better Wilmer trolls in the comments section nowadays.
hells littlest angel
What color is the sky that’s falling in your world?
scav
American (Leap-year Democrat) Socialism! The candidate with the most money deserves the nomination and How Dare You Vote (RIG!!) It Otherwise!
Cacti
@scav: I bet that America’s most famous socialist comes out of this with a 4th house.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Nice try, MM.
Gotta find something to concern-troll about Biden, I guess. But “he’s been a weak fundraiser in a primary full of good fundraisers”? That’s all you got? (I assume not, and we’ll have more trashing of Biden from the front page soon…)
Butch
Not to get involved in the current argument; I just remember a distant day when I was actually excited about the slate of candidates. (Yes, I will still vote.)
lumpkin
A guy who wants to lead a socialist revolution is not going to win the general election. And he’s gonna drag down the rest of the party he doesn’t even belong to.
the Conster
So is money good or bad?
Would *progressives* just please let us all know what is the right amount of money a candidate should have, from whom it should come and from what was it earned? Is dark money OK, or only for St. Bernard? Is holding fund raisers in wine caves bad, but only if Pete does it? Should only poor and middle class folks fund campaigns, when the RNC will drop $1billion on the head of the candidate, so let’s all bring our sporks to a gun fight? At least I know Biden isn’t bought by the Russians, and either is Bloomberg.
BRyan
OT, and apologies in advance if this is as stupid a question as I fear it might be: can anyone please tell me where to find the pie feature? IPad, safari. used to see it below commenting section, but now I don’t see it anywhere. thanks!
cleek
fuck “Bernie”
cleek
@BRyan: it’s at the top of the comments, right about the comment count (picture of a pie)
Johnny Gentle (famous crooner)
@Served: Now that the well is effectively poisoned once again, I’m sure a huge number of people who’ve donated only to Bernie won’t donate to anyone else because, y’know, “neoliberals.”
schrodingers_cat
@the Conster:
As long as the money BS has > Money Biden has
Money==good
Otherwise
Money == bad.
WhatsMyNym
@Johnny Gentle (famous crooner): Some will, some won’t. Some folks just liking being “right” all the time – and will always find a reason to not vote because…
Cacti
Good for Bernie, bad for everyone else. Because neoliberal corporatist establishment something something.
RaflW
I’ve been supporting Warren. I voted Warren (early) in MN for SortaSpecial™ Tuesday.
But if she at some point suspends, I will consider donating to Biden (in the primaries). Even if she endorses or sorta-boosts Bernie, since his policies are closer to hers.
General election, I’ll donate to Dem candidates, issue groups, and folks like Stacy Abrams voter registration/mobilization. Top of the ticket donations? In the general, I feel my funds have more impact downballot.
Ella in New Mexico
So, “You can’t support Biden over Sanders because according to my Wishful Thinking Analysis he can’t possibly ever raise any more money for the General”
Honest to God this is just a ridiculous post.
BRyan
@cleek: ah, so that’s what that is. I knew it’d turn out to be a dumb question. thank you!
VFX Lurker
The black vote would be the other measurable component. South Carolina confirmed what Nevada suggested: a majority of black voters support Biden.
No Democratic Presidential candidate has won a majority of the white vote since 1964. We need black voter support to haul our Presidential candidate over the finish line. If the majority of black voters prefer Biden, it makes sense to vote for Biden.
MomSense
I heard the big donors switched to Biden this past weekend. I assumed that was the real reason Pete dropped out. His campaign heard from their founders that they were moving to Biden.
Kent
And only if it comes in multiples of $27 or something like that.
Poe Larity
Marianne and Trump would just say you are vastly underestimating the power of the Media-Industrial-Complex arrayed against them.
They need to remake A Face In The Crowd with a sad ending.
Betty Cracker
Because shut up, that’s why.
Seriously, though, I agree that Biden’s fundraising throughout the cycle can be reasonably interpreted as a lack of enthusiasm. If he ends up being the nominee almost by default because of the crowded field and panic at the prospect that Sanders might get a plurality, it points to a potential problem.
That said, couldn’t a “give me money so we can get rid of Trump” fundraising theme in the general be highly effective? It would probably work on me, and I think Biden is a dope.
wmd
Worth considering: Pete and Amy endorsements may also carry some of their GoTV personnel to Joe. Beto not so much.
I really don’t want Biden. I’m a former Bernie supporter (2016), but the failures of our Revolution in 2018, and the grift put me off. I’m sticking with Warren, likely through the convention ( if she has under 400 delegates on March 17 that may change…)
White & Gold Purgatorian
I’m a sample of one but donated once or twice to Harris, Castro, Pete, have a small recurring donation to my favorite, Amy, and a smaller one to Warren. I’ve also donated twice to Joe since Nevada. The FEC rules will allow me to hit his campaign roughly 100 more times, if I could afford it. Once he looks like the one who can win it, the small $ will come, along with the big ones.
Need to go figure out how to stop that Warren donation, I guess.
gwangung
@VFX Lurker: Black voters aren’t the only POC voters out there, and Latinx enthusiasm for Sanders might be a factor….if he can keep them coming out, particularly for primaries.
JMG
Presidential candidates in the general election have always had and will always have enough money to run a winning campaign.
In lighter news, Boston local news showed a clip of Sanders leaving his Vermont polling place and he drives the exact same car I do. 2018 Subaru Forester and it’s even the same metallic blue they used that model year. I must say a less symbolically revolutionary motor vehicle cannot be found. It’s the automotive equivalent of wearing LL Bean gear.
Barbara
I don’t think I can deal with this now.
A Ghost To Most
@Betty Cracker: When the object is to rally the troops, and the troops start rallying around someone, you go with it.
Mnemosyne
@the Conster:
Butbutbut you can’t assume that Our Revolution is a Sanders dark money org just because his national campaign co-chair is the founder and CEO! Or so the Bros on Twitter keep assuring me. ?
eclare
I am so out of these threads.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
do we have Nashville peeps?
kindness
I have to say I’m a Warren supporter and voter (or will be later on today). Honestly though if Warren throws in the towel I won’t be supporting Bernie if it’s between him and Uncle Joe. I will vote for whom ever wins the Democratic nomination but Bernie’s supporters drive me nuts in a really bad way. I keep seeing how the very same antics from them that allowed the press to say Hillary had so many issues in 2016. Yes that was a press problem but Bernie’s freaking idiots fanned the flames endlessly and in fact are still bitching about Hillary here in 2020.
Jesus people. Stop smiting your own side!
Baud
Bloomberg has committed to supporting the Dem nominee with his money. We just get Bernie to make the same commitment, and Biden should be fine.
A Ghost To Most
@JMG: I travel some of the highest, rockiest roads in CO. I see Foresters everywhere up there. They are tough cars.
patrick Il
I just saw my first Obama add for Joe Biden here in Virginia. Last minute help I guess. Things are changing fast.
I am now stepping out to vote for Elizabeth. Too late for me Barack.
delk
In an attempt to lighten the mood, let me tell you why I am voting for Joe.
It’s because my urologist looks like a young Joe Biden (talk about handsy!). So if the choice is between a urologist that looks like a young Joe Biden, or a urologist that looks like a young President Joe Biden, well, hail to the chief then. ?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@patrick Il: a Biden-paid ad featuring Obama?
Mnemosyne
@gwangung:
The California results are going to be really interesting, because we do have a powerful block of Latinx voters who get stuff done and get their politicians elected. I guess we’ll have to wait and see what happens.
realbtl
@JMG: Well, they don’t import Ladas or Yugos anymore so what’s a socialist to do?
Chyron HR
BRINKS TRUCKS BACKING UP
UNLIMITED SOCIALIST CASH
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
@download my app in the app store mistermix:
Why do you want to support someone who insists “Most drug dealers are Black”
Why do you want to support someone who said yesterday he “won the working class vote in South Carolina” (which is only true when Sanders excludes Blacks).
Why do you want to support someone who’s chief surrogates have said “Winning South Carolina is like winning Guam” and “South Carolina primary doesn’t represent the Democratic Party“
Fleeting Expletive
The crucial issue to me in this primary is the vice-presidential candidates. I hope Biden chooses Warren and I feel a lack of confidence in Bernie making that choice. Warren may be the VP choice of either Biden or Sanders. I’ll vote for BS if he becomes the nominee, but I voted for Warren this morning. There had been 117 votes counted before I slipped my ballot in the machine, a pretty good number for this tiny little polling places. I left a pile of disposable gloves with the election ladies which they said they appreciated although they had one of those half-gallon sanitizer dispensers at the table. I don’t look for any Democrat to succeed in this area though.
chopper
this is just…this is just stupid.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Must be. Obama isn’t going to reveal his endorsement in an ad.
Quinerly
@cleek: ?
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
CNBC: Dump pressuring Fed to cut rates triggers mass Dow Jones sell off.
Everything Dump touches dies.
zhena gogolia
@cleek:
Yeah, I hate to use that name. I’m not on a first-name basis with the Putin stooge.
The Dangerman
I thought Bloomer was going to drop a couple gazillion on the General regardless the candidate. Problem solved. Thanks Mike!
BS might have money out the ass, but no way he has enough or could ever have enough to withstand the shit bomb coming his way.
Right now, best Trump seems to have is a comparative water balloon on Trump. OK. maybe Hunter got a sweet gig in Ukraine. I got news. The number of voters that would ever vote for a Democrat that give a fuck about Hunter Biden is minscule.
Quinerly
@Ella in New Mexico: ?
germy
Jim, Foolish Literalist
just clicking around the internet and for all the feeling like I’ve been rolling around in a giant dryer with a bunch of hard baseballs for the last four years, I am still brought up short every time I see that Judge Judy is a surrogate for a not-insignificant (yet) candidate for president. Maybe I shouldn’t be, she’s now as popular as Oprah or Ellen or whoever the hell back in the day, but… Judge Judy is a major surrogate in a presidential campaign.
Geminid
I think voting is the only measurable component of the nebulous concept of “electability”. If Biden gets the nomination the money will come. p.s. I hear crow goes well with hollandaise sauce.
guachi
Biden is second in delegates and first in votes despite terrible fundraising. Just imagine what will happen when the money starts rolling in.
randy khan
At least sort of related to the OP, I have suddenly started getting Biden ads on the ad-supported solitaire game on my phone. I mean, suddenly as in they started on Sunday. There are two variations – one is “Joe is great” and the other is “people won’t vote for a socialist.” The mouse print is much too small to read on my phone, so I don’t know if they’re actually from the campaign or if there’s a superPAC involved, although the Joe is great ad seems to use his logo and typeface.
But if it’s Joe, it seems like it suggests there was a surge of money or that he was husbanding resources for right before Super Tuesday.
Immanentize
@cleek:
I support the new Cleek’s Law
randy khan
@germy:
And it’s working about as well as you’d expect – the Dow is down 2.8% right now.
Traders can be stupid about a lot of things, but they know when the government is addressing the issues they’re actually worried about and when the government is trying to prop up the market while not dealing with those issues.
Mr. Mack
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yup. Damage all around us, but we were unscathed.
Kent
Not like anyone of importance reads this blog, but I’ve been promoting Val Demings as my VP choice. I expect Biden will go with someone younger and more “diverse” than Warren who he will need right there in the Senate to get anything done.
Warren is my first choice of the remaining candidates in the race, but not my first choice as a VP. I’d like to see someone younger than early 60s at minimum. And someone who can be the frontrunner in 2024 or 2028.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mr. Mack: good to hear
Kraux Pas
@germy: When the only tool you have is a hammer, everything starts to look like a nail.
Immanentize
@the Conster: News from my West Medford polling site. The Immp and I went to the Fire Station around the corner from Dunkies and cast our ballots.
The Immp’s first!!!
I voted for Warren.
The Immp was torn between Warren, Biden and his heart’s first love, Yang. ALL the candidates were still on the Mass. ballot, including Zaphod Beeblebrox (oh wouldn’t that have been fun?). I told him one of the beautiful things about voting is that you needn’t tell anyone who you voted for and you can, in fact, lie about it if it will help your marriage. He said that if there had been any candidate supporters there, he would have been persuaded between Warren and Biden, but there were not — it was pretty quiet at 2:30. So, I don’t yet know who he voted for.
We were 783 and 784 which was pretty good for the pre-after work rush.
germy
@Kent: Demings is 62.
David Anderson
Could we look at history and demographics of what types of candidates do really well in raising small dollar donations — flashy factional single or double issue candidates can really hit their faction hard for cash. I was part of the original Dean fundraising army from the Summer of 2003 (started my first blog as a Dean blog in September 2003) as he was the only one screaming that Iraq was a fucking dumb idea. That mobilized a lot of people who thought Iraq was a fucking dumb idea to donate to a candidate that was hitting their issue hard on a daily basis.
The other segment that can give a lot of cash, repeatedly and quickly, is college educated, upper middle class voters. Buttigeig was hitting these folks on technocratic competency, and Warren is an almost designed in the lab candidate for people like my wife to send 2 hours of pay per month in.
There may be a demographic component of bases of support that tie into small donor fundraising….
Dorothy A. Winsor
@randy khan:
Speaking of issues, there’s a fourth case of COVID-19 in my Chicago suburban area–the wife of a man who’d previously been diagnosed in a senior facility. My building passed out a flyer to day with info about the virus and ways to protect yourself. There’s something wrong when building management gives me more and more accurate information than the president does.
germy
@Kraux Pas: I think the only obvious solution to all our problems is more tax cuts and less regulation.
pamelabrown53
Just returned from casting our (2) votes for Biden. I think he’ll have the most coattails for keeping the House and maybe retaking the Senate. Plus, I think his vast experience in the executive branch will help repair and restore our major institutions.
I wasn’t always for Biden: initially was Kamala crazy. Then I couldn’t settle on anyone after she dropped out. Frankly, I lost some of my enthusiasm for her when she was the first to get sucked into the M4All trap.
Anyway, I’m quite sanguine about my vote and now will start regular donations.
I understand that many here want to vote their heart for SPW and respect that position.
I probably have fewer qualms about a contested convention than most. I do have a niggling fear that SPW might throw her support to Wilmer.
Mnemosyne
@Fleeting Expletive:
I want Kamala Harris as VP, and Warren in a position guaranteed to drive her haters up the wall: Secretary of the Treasury. ?
germy
Mike in NC
Just came from the polling place. It looked like there were at least 20 names on the Democratic Primary paper ballot. I forgot my reading glasses but put an X down for Joe.
Immanentize
@Betty Cracker: I think everyone if forgetting that the DNC throws all of its weight and cash to the candidate once the primary is over. It is not just the candidate raising and spending, it is the whole Democratic Party doing so. Including party donations from states and counties everywhere.
So the premise up top is entirely fallacious as to the general. There will be no lack of cash — up to and beyond a billion — whatever is necessary in the general.
phein60
@wmd:
I’m a Warren supporter, too, and our state (Illinois) primaries on the 17th. My instinct is to stick with Warren, and ignore the rest of prognosticators and touts, but I’d be open to an intelligent argument for either Bernie or Biden if someone can show that it would affect the general.
Immanentize
@wmd: Buttigieg and Klobuchar endorsements also bring their campaign folks, canvassers, and data if Biden wants them (and pays).
Immanentize
@gwangung: I’ve said this before — but there is no evidence of Sanders’ improved stance with Hispanic voters over 2016. It is the same or slightly less. Yes, Nevada proved that.
ETA — but let me agree with the basic point — especially in the general — improving LatinX voting would be a huge boost to the Democratic nominee. Except maybe in the Cuban or Venezuelan communities, which might be generational.
the Conster
@Immanentize:
You live right near my daughter who also lives in Medford. She’s a huge Warren fan, was a Berner last time. I have no idea what she’ll do, but she sure does know how I feel about the old fraud.
I voted early this mornin’. I’m ridin with Biden.
Betty Cracker
@Immanentize: Isn’t the DNC famously broke? And aren’t the RNC and Trump just as famously rolling in lots of cash? I don’t think it’s a fallacious premise nor a dispositive argument in favor of someone other than Biden, just something to consider.
Kraux Pas
Well, I can’t make much of an argument for either of those two but if I were you I’d be watching whether Warren continues to accrue delegates.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@phein60:
That’s my instinct too, but I’m going to wait until the Super Tuesday dust settles to make up my mind. We usually early vote, but we’ve been holding off.
Immanentize
@the Conster: I love love love my neighborhood.
I keep telling my son, I feel at home here, in this professional but not hedge fund area. Teachers, police, lawyers, ne’er do well pot growers…. But if I lived in the western burbs like Concord, Needham, Weston, etc. I would feel so poor and put upon.
I hope she voted her heart! Even if her mother has expressed her views. :-)
VFX Lurker
Los Angeles Times last week:
…as you noted, we’ll see how this goes.
Fleeting Expletive
@Kent: I agree with you, largely, but how many people out there know who Val Demmings even is? Stacey Abrams would be a very capable administrator and would make voting rights a real priority. Like I said, lots of misgivings about Bernie’s judgment on that choice.
WhatsMyNym
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Your local and state health departments are going to be more involved in local cases than any President would.
Immanentize
@Betty Cracker: They are not broke, but the RNC is rolling in the dough. This is in part due to the fact that the primaries are costing the RNC almost nothing.* But the apparatus is designed for post-convention fundraising and spending. Will Trump RNC out raise the DNC? Probably, but the Republicans also seem to take about a 40% haircut from that source to “wet the beak” I suspect.
*this is a sad fact about open versus closed primaries. In many states, the party has to pay for closed primaries (because of equal protection and speech concerns). Sanders’ never ending jihad against the party and the DNC have certainly damaged fund raising opportunities. I used to give a bit to the DNC, but now I don’t. But I will in the general, if I have any to give by then.
Geminid
@pamelabrown53: I worry some about what the Warren delegates I vote for this afternoon in Virginia will do at the convention. But I don’t think Warren will endorse Sanders. She’s gotten to know him much better this primary season. And while I think most of his supporters are good people, his surrogates and die hard fans are repulsive. They are creating a backlash that will intensify. And they will be insufferable at the convention.
WaterGirl
@BRyan: One quick way to find it is to click on the # of comments in the byline just under the title of the thread. That should take you to the circle with the # of comments in it – that’s just before the first comment.
The little cherry pie is just above that. Just click on it.
catclub
No. You might not like what he is saying, but is stating facts – 1)Biden fundraising (so far if you like) is terrible.
2) Biden with no money will have a hard time winning the nomination.
3) Biden with no money will also have a hard time against Trump.
For all I know this is a bank shot fundraising appeal for Biden. It seems to have worked.
Geminid
@pamelabrown53: Curious. How did you vote in the Senate primary? John Cornyn (R-TX) has low favorability and can be beaten.
Immanentize
@David Anderson:
This is actually a really brilliant fundraising idea. Is winning this race and beating Trump worth just two hours of your pay each week? It is for me and it is a nice way to include everyone from counter workers to CEO.
patrick Il
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: It seemed to be, yes. But I was just leaving so I can’t guarantee.
ByRookorbyCrook
Wait, so we shouldn’t vote for Biden because Bernie has ‘Brinks trucks backing up to his campaign’?
Bobby Thomson
Not much on current events, are you?
Immanentize
@pamelabrown53: We had some discussion about this yesterday, but the consolidation around Biden makes a contested convention MORE likely, not less, unless he really either takes off like crazy or completely flames out.
PS I really hate the term “brokered” re: the convention because it makes it sound underhanded and illegitimate. Which is why I expect it will be the only word Sanders uses in regard to the selection process.
Immanentize
@germy: Funny, but that actually applied to Klobuchar more than Biden
Immanentize
@Fleeting Expletive: How many people knew who Kaine was?
Eljai
@pamelabrown53: The majority of Warren’s delegates will not go to Sanders, even if she endorses him, and I doubt she will. He berned another bridge after he campaigned in her home state to knock her out of the race. The guy knows nothing about persuading allies or building coalitions. He painted himself into a corner with his scorched-earth, try-to-win-with-a- plurality strategy.
Mnemosyne
@VFX Lurker:
Totally random, but what was the name of that restaurant in Little Tokyo that you, me, Ruckus, and your non-BJ friend went to? G is currently working there 1 day a week and is looking for lunch places.
Morzer
So now the Bernie Bros love Mayor Pete because he raised mucho dinero from billionaires? Seriously, this is one confused argument and a half. And Biden’s going to do just fine for money after he crushes Comrade HeartBern and all his weaselly, grifty schemes.
Bobby Thomson
Another way in which whiny Bernie Bro’s take is terrible: the big bundlers moved to Buttigeig because they thought Biden didn’t have it anymore.
They came back.
Appropriate inferences are left as an exercise for the reader.
Ian
I mean, there are plenty of recent reports of Biden’s surging fundraising since SC…
google still works my dude
geg6
This might be the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen you say here. What does his war chest now (or more realistically, the one he had a week or two ago) have to do with the one he’ll have for the general? And what makes you think Trump is putting all that cash into his campaign? Jesus. Go vote for Bernie and let the rest of us get on with getting the country back together.
Chyron HR
@ByRookorbyCrook:
No, they’re Marx trucks. Very revolution, much proletariat.
Eljai
@Immanentize: My understanding is that a contested convention is one in which no candidate arrives at the convention with the 50% plus 1 delegate required to win, but one of them does gather a coalition on the first ballot that adds up to 50 +1. A brokered convention is one that goes to a second ballot and includes the super delegate votes, if no one gets 50% + 1 on the first vote. But to your point, I would not be surprised if one campaign resurrects the establishment, rigging, conspiracy arguments again. They’re already doing it. But you’re right – the process is not underhanded. It’s just the rules.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Chyron HR:
Groucho Marx trunks.
Gvg
Dollars don’t vote. My political life has included quite a few really rich candidates who didn’t even win a primary and other candidates that had rich peoples backing and lost. Votes win elections not dollars or pacs. Citizens United was a stupid argument as well as immoral. Some money is necessary but not the most money.
This campaign has voters and donors all trying to guess what will be a sure winner and following them around with money. Democrats really want to win. It looks to me like plenty of people remember how Trump won the GOP nomination, and fear repeating those mistakes.
Mnemosyne
Also, can I take a moment to point out that there does seem to be a truly grass-roots candidate that people voted for in large numbers despite him not having a lot of money or ads, and it was NOT the dude who’s been claiming for 4+ years that he represents the grass roots of the party?
Just sayin’.
Martin
I don’t like how Biden runs his campaign. I think it is outdated and ineffective. I really hope that changes significantly for the better soon.
Martin
@Geminid: The rule is that in most states delegates for candidates that drop out become uncommitted during the first round. However, if the candidate that drops out endorses another candidate, then the delegates are pledged to the endorsed candidate.
If Warren endorses Biden, then her pledged delegates are Biden pledged delegates.
Warren will not endorse Sanders. She will endorse Biden.
Geminid
I would like to see Spanish language ads detailing Sanders’ opposition to comprehensive immigration in 2006.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@?BillinGlendaleCA: the other day I shot an elephant in my trunks, how he got in my trunks I’ll never know
Martin
I don’t think that’s true if you believe the majority of voters that were backing candidates that dropped out will go to Biden. If support consolidates for Biden he should get over the line. With those candidates in the race, it was almost certain to be brokered as Bernie isn’t winning big enough to get there.
Mandarama
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yep. We are ok here, although the tornado passed within a half-mile of my sister and BIL (both readers here). Lots of damage in their neighborhood. So many reasons to value and work towards good government!
Death Panel Truck
I voted for Warren in the Washington state primary, and was proud to do so. If she fails to get the nom, I hope to vote for Biden. No fucking way would I give Sanders my primary vote, in part because his supporters are insufferable assholes. I’ve lost count of how many of them I’ve blocked on Twitter. According to them, I’m “delusional,” “an idiot,” “a drunk,” a “corporatist shill,” etc. If the worst happens and he grabs the nom, I’ll hold my nose and vote for the asshole.
trollhattan
@Martin:
There are suddenly a lot of campaign professionals looking for a gig, so….
trollhattan
@Death Panel Truck:
Huh, you copy off my homework or something?
Jeffro
Man it has been a long time since I saw such a pointless, jackass post like this one. Really helpful, champ! ?
VFX Lurker
Hana Ichimonme Kyoto Ramen in Little Tokyo Galleria. Two hours’ free parking with validation. I hope G likes it!
Muck
@Jeffro: Yes! Beyond complaining, what is the point of this post? If you can only afford to fly coach then don’t bother coming at all!! Jesus, I thought Bernie’s whole deal was lookin’ out for people with less.
Mnemosyne
@VFX Lurker:
Thank you! He hasn’t gotten out for lunch much, but he does love him some ramen.
Yutsano
@Mandarama: Oh gravy. I hope Marsha and Lamar actually bother to do some things for the citizens of your fair state. Of course should they fail it won’t hurt her at all and I bet he’s pretty much checked out now. Much love and healing light to you, your fellow citizens, and Nashville!
RedDirtGirl
@pamelabrown53: I’m guessing SPW is Warren, but what does it stand for?
RedDirtGirl
@Mnemosyne: who?
guachi
@RedDirtGirl: Senator Professor Warren.
VFX Lurker
Awesome! There are two cash-only ramen shops on 1st street he might also like — Daikokuya and Hachijoi. On the same street is an udon shop that makes its own noodles in front of you —Marugame Monzo. Hana-Ichimonme has the easiest parking, though.
LAC
I think donna brazille speaks for me on this worthless post.