Here’s something that’s absolutely terrifying: a comparison of the age distributions of Covid-19 cases in Italy, where they are only testing people who show symptoms, and S. Korea, which has broad testing. A whole lot of 20-29yos out there who feel just fine but are v contagious. pic.twitter.com/BU96h3VKUc
— Mark Byrne (@markwby) March 14, 2020
That graph, updated.
(Updates will be here: https://t.co/yEPNzjICd9) pic.twitter.com/y1WcFsDmlx
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) March 15, 2020
Airbnb extends full refund policy worldwide amid virus frenzy https://t.co/hJ2tF5ismN
— SCMP News (@SCMPNews) March 16, 2020
I can’t pretend to understand finance, but I get the feeling that’s going to be the BIG coronavirus-related news today, even / because of the Oval Office Occupant’s antics:
Asian markets crash and dollar slides on Monday as US fED's emergency cut rate to near zero due to the negative impact of the spread of the #coronavirus on the economy pic.twitter.com/o6fl3Rlru6
— ANews (@anewscomtr) March 16, 2020
Coronavirus: Germany to close borders with France, Austria and Switzerland https://t.co/EftthKufrw
— SCMP News (@SCMPNews) March 15, 2020
Please stay safe and stay home. #travel #estonia #staythefuckhome pic.twitter.com/QPOb3Ty9oh
— Visit Estonia (@visitestonia) March 14, 2020
Probably not. My mother is Estonian and that's our family motto.
— Mark Asser (@mark_r_asser) March 14, 2020
The Danish government, unions and employers' associations have agreed to avoid job losses during the quarantine:
– the state will cover 75% of wages of threatened workers
– employers 25%
– workers will give up 5 days of paid holiday time/work 5 days freehttps://t.co/kKFDvcHzNq
— bue rübner (@BueRubner) March 15, 2020
Damn, Norway. pic.twitter.com/IwHskXGkB0
— Jeremy Klemin (@JeremyKlemin) March 15, 2020
the whole country basically goes on lockdown tonight and all dutch ppl rush out to buy WEED pic.twitter.com/riGHTPvkF5
— lau (@hausofIau) March 15, 2020
Seems like Boris Johnson is determined to make his American counterpart look good, whatever it takes…
Wise words from @BillHanage about the UK's suggestion to deal with the #coronavirus epidemic by just letting everyone get sick as fast as possible to attain herd immunity. https://t.co/eLcOzQlwDI
— Dr. Tara C. Smith (@aetiology) March 16, 2020
In his first daily press conference, Boris Johnson must release the full data and models to back up the UK's outlier response to coronavirus. Scientists must be able to scrutinize the reasons why we are keeping things open while other nations are shutting them down.
— David Lammy (@DavidLammy) March 16, 2020
In our homeland security crisis management class, @juliettekayyem used to use this exact example of how *not* to respond to a crisis!! She showed us the scene with the dead child's mother screaming at the mayor and we talked about how decisions would be perceived in retrospect. https://t.co/4vh2cTKCfZ
— Susan Hennessey (@Susan_Hennessey) March 14, 2020
Something vaguely surreal about the fact that the UK government is putting in far more time, effort, and sacrifice containing the spread of Polish plumbers than a literal plague.
— Starfish Who Is Frankly Freaking Out Right Now (@IRHotTakes) March 14, 2020
Putin asks world leaders to come to Moscow's May 9 WWII Victory Parade on Red Square. Trump: "No, i'm not coming. Merkel: "I can't." Macron: "Possibly." Coronavirus: "I'll be there for sure!" pic.twitter.com/Wa9DEXlEpm
— marc bennetts (@marcbennetts1) March 15, 2020
#Sudan reports first coronavirus case #COVID19https://t.co/aswwGIkYRJ
— ɪᴀɴ ᴍ ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ ????? (@MackayIM) March 16, 2020
New cases are emerging in the four corners of the continent, for instance in Burkina Faso and in Ghana, where drastic measures have been taken to ban social gatherings. I would hate to be right on this, but all signs are pointing towards an emerging COVID-19 crisis in S-S Africa. https://t.co/VMqWxVmi7S
— Gérard L. F. Chouin (@glchouin) March 16, 2020
Breaking news Coronavirus: Dubai shuts pubs, bars and lounges https://t.co/wBsEWcAoxV
— Gulf News (@gulf_news) March 16, 2020
Coronavirus: Japan identifies 15 infection clusters, with biggest from music venues in Osaka https://t.co/xP6CmIgdlH
— SCMP News (@SCMPNews) March 16, 2020
Coronavirus: Metro Manila becomes a ghost town under Philippines government lockdown https://t.co/2MLLnMIW6e
— SCMP News (@SCMPNews) March 16, 2020
Latest travel advice for China; All international travellers entering Beijing city must quarantine 14days. Average cost (in Dongcheng), no choice of hotel, 420/per room incl. 3 meals x 14 is 5880RMB or 840.8USD/757,3 EUR. Visitor pays.
— Elke Scholiers (@ElkeScholiers) March 16, 2020
Coronavirus: top expert calls for quarantine for all arrivals to Hong Kong as seven of 10 recent Covid-19 cases believed imported https://t.co/hzmdNQfjKC
— SCMP News (@SCMPNews) March 16, 2020
China right now, America… eventually (assuming we survive):
China may have prevented 95% of virus cases if it acted on silenced whistleblower’s warning https://t.co/0HSW900k0k #coronavirus #ChinaCoronaVirus #Covid19 #HongKong #China
— Hong Kong Free Press (@HongKongFP) March 14, 2020
TL;DR China is taking full advantage of the crisis, displaying its adeptness at refashioning and repackaging for external audiences old, internally directed propaganda themes. At the same time it's experimenting with new forms of disinformation that resemble Russia's approach.
— Matt Schrader (@tombschrader) March 13, 2020
Campaign to 'thank' Xi Jinping flatly rejected by Wuhan citizenshttps://t.co/UpZZb62suH
— Robbie Gramer (@RobbieGramer) March 14, 2020
Last week, a Beijing official told journalists to stop reporting #COVID19 originated in China.
The origin of the #coronavirus outbreak has not been a point of contention, not even in China's state media – until now.
So what's changed? https://t.co/Rdp6khOaqc
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) March 15, 2020
Good morning! Federal government is on “telework if you can” mode.Thank you for your Covid-19 posts. As a scientist I often have to sift through information to find out how accurate it is, but you have a good set of sources. Anthony Fauci made the rounds yesterday, and it’s worth watching a few clips. They are all pretty similar – things will get worse, people should stay home if they can, and testing capability is ramping up. Faceless bureaucrats are coming through – mainly from home.
This is a slower-paced and less dramatic version of Contagion. Being in the preparedness business, I feel that people walking around as if this were nothing (or a media plot to hurt Trump) are like pod people, unaware of who they are (#streamingsuggestion).
Pod people indeed. One looks on in wonder at the persistent inability of certain political types we have these days to decode the most blatant culturally expressed messages. And so with real life.
The all-Republican leadership of my mostly rural, tourism-dependent county is making every stupid decision they can, and I hope their loud, dumb fecklessness is burned in every resident’s brain. A planned parade and shrimp festival went forward this weekend, despite incontrovertible evidence that there’s community spread of the virus in the state and the first confirmed report of the virus in the county. So far, the county fair is still supposed to open next week. The county wasn’t going to shut down the schools, but the state made them.
Got the news today, oh boy. Working at home for next month. We have local delivery from grocery: tho mysterious choices and much of what I need is not online. Basically bunkered the whole past week. Ate an Italian sandwich with Muenster cheese yesterday. So scraping the fridge at this point.
However, the handy graph of business density should still be operational: hitting my local Aldis when they open at 9am should work. Gloves, social distance, I operate my own card at the machine.
I won’t get back my own quarter! Due precautions will be taken.
I was watching news reports from Germany last night, multiple online source, and Berlin had police going door to door all over city, closing all bars, restaurants, theaters, bordellos…. Yep, whorehouses are being closed, too. Bit of a cultural shock thing, there. Of course Germany announced yesterday they were closing borders with Denmark, France, Switzerland, Austria, except for those commuting across border to work, and not stopping movement of goods. But cutting traffic by probably 80%.
So we’ve got Laboratory of the States and, within the states, Laboratory of the Counties.
Poll out yesterday reported 30% of all Republicans do not believe there is any reason to engage in social isolation, and intend to go out and shop, eat, socialize as normal. Devin Nunes on Twitter has doubled down that this is a good time to get the family and friend together and go out to eat, because restaurants will not be crowded. Self-selection Darwinism in action, I call it.
Crowd sourcing this question and would appreciate any feedback – my mother is in Texas and just picked this moment to get very seriously ill (she’s 85 and this is very serious). I’m in South Carolina and need to get there in the next few days. Should I fly as I’ve done in the past (into Houston, then a shuttle to where she lives) or drive it in a two day split? It’s about the same price but I’m thinking the car gives me a lot more flexibility and isolation.
@HeartlandLiberal: This frankly shocks me: I did not think the brainwashing had gone this far.
Though fools are always with us, I figured the survival instinct would kick in sometime.
Yes, I’m up and didn’t get to sleep until late. My new normal.
@Eural Joiner: Sounds like driving is the safer option. Hope your mom gets well soon!
The Petri Dish of the Counties.
@HeartlandLiberal: Too bad the consequences of their stupid behavior won’t be confined to that 30%. It’s maddening.
ETA: We’re one county over from the county that contains The Villages and the other gigantic retirement communities in that part of the state.
@Eural Joiner: Drive. Drive. Drive. Carry tossable gloves if you have them for pit stops and fill-ups. Do NOT get on an airplane, the air circulation guarantees if there is a carrier onboard, you are likely to be infected. I am sorry about your Mom, I hope she will be OK. Besides, I follow several aviation channels on YouTube that report on aviation industry, and the industry is basically shutting down anywhere from 50% to 80% of flights. Cancellations are exceeding reservations for past few days. Commercial airlines are in deep economic doo. As are we all. Be safe.
@Betty Cracker: And I read an article about how 90% of them have brushed it off and are still going to club meetings, cruises, and shopping like normal.
@Betty Cracker: I sent that tweet to WaterGirl, with the suggestion she use it as a header for the proposed guest posts on combining child care with working-from-home!
(Depends, of course, on the guest poster’s sense of humor… )
@Eural Joiner: Sorry to hear about your mom. Agree that driving would be best.
Illinois and Ohio closed restaurants and bars, Indiana hasn’t, but closed the casinos after one of the newly confirmed cases was found to have spent time at a casino, some sporting events and church.
Still a lot of red staters who think it’s all overblown.
@WereBear: Fortunately for the older people in nursing homes who voted Trump into office, the administration of the homes understand. All the nursing homes here where we live closed end of last week to all outsiders. Only residents can enter, and most of them are being told to just stay and not go out in public. I have many older friends, some in their eighties and even mid-nineties, made through duplicate bridge club, living in these homes, and I really hope they will be safe till a vaccine can be created.
@Eural Joiner: sorry about your mom too. I would drive. Who knows if they may start restricting air travel soon?
That comparison graph between widescale-testing South Korea and limited-testing Italy is just, yeah, the genie isn’t so much out of the bottle as the bottle was shaken up and sprayed over everyone and we’re all just standing around dripping wet while our esteemed leadership caste are giving speeches telling everyone they must have pissed themselves.
It’s so wonderful to live in a country where the Electorate recently decided that they’d rather stick with the Party that has systematically plucked, de-boned and filleted the NHS for a decade than vote for massive investment in staff and infrastructure because Racism and Right Wing Media Bias > asking the very comfortable to pay a few pence more in taxes. Nothing to worry about, though. the official Government policy supported by “Patriotic British Science” is to let Corvid-19 sweep through the population unchecked, cleansing our Brexiopia of impurities and giving living space for the stronger, cleaner, hopefully immune Super-Race that will emerge from the ashes.
That’s not how herd-immunity works, but it is how politically convenient eugenics rolls, so at least there’s some ‘science’ behind the policy, even if it is ‘science’ from the 1890s. And hey, once the dead start piling up I’ll be able to loot their homes of toilet roll and dried pasta. Result!
These fucking people.
Pretty positive that was the original plan of President Miller.
@Tony Jay: Remember: When the Rapture comes, can I have your car??
CNN says that at 10:30 AM ET, Pence will open his lipless gob and praise Dear Leader’s leaderly leadership and announce new restrictions, possibly to include curfews. (Well, that’s not how they put it, but that’s the gist.)
They can have a sing-along with this nice, hummable tune.
Agree with driving. You might need the car while you’re there also, though I guess you could find a local rental—better to have as few extra hassles as possible while coping with family needs. Also, possibly few planes.
All the best.
White & Gold Purgatorian
@Eural Joiner: I would drive. Best wishes for you and your mom. Take some snacks/drinks in the car with you, for the drive.
@Eural Joiner: I’m sorry to hear about your mother. I would totally drive, with the gear that others have already suggested.
Thanks for the update
I am appalled at BoJo’s “plan” for people to just get sick and get over it (or maybe die).
However, here on my local NPR station just a few minutes ago, there was a report about gloating preppers who think they deserve respect from the rest of the country for their foresight.
Streets are noticeably dead this morning in DC with the gov’t moving to telework.
Our office had been planning a “telework shakedown” day tomorrow to iron out all the problems, but no sense waiting to try it out at this point.
@Eural Joiner: Definitely agree with the others; driving is the only sensible option. It’s the only form of travel still allowed by our office for business at this point.
Covexit means Covexit. ?♀️
Trump: “That’s possible? Let’s get on this plan!”
He’s basically already said that. “It will pass soon.”
I don’t know very much about high economics, either, so I’m sure that it’s just a coincidence that Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Powell one day, and 1-2 days later the rates were cut to zero.
[NB: I have no idea if the cut makes sense — maybe it does? — but I wish the Orange Plague (Darth Plagueis?) would shut his festering gob for awhile.]
My HQ has a mandatory work from home shakedown today, but all the production facilities are working as normal. We have absolutely no business travel allowed and haven’t since last week pending further notification. They also implemented a mandatory two week self-quarantine for anyone who comes home from international travel, and extended emergency support pay by a week (it’s usually a single week of pay for ’emergency care’ to cover). They’re definitely taking it seriously, but those of us who can’t just “work from home” are nervous about getting how things shake out for sure. It doesn’t help that MN and WI both shut down our schools until after Easter so employees are scrambling.
@debbie: The estimate is that about half the population of the UK will be exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and have some reaction to it, including being infectious to others. If we quarantine hard (police and troops on the streets, barricades etc.) and test exhaustively and do everything in our power to stop the spread of the disease then in the end about half the population will be exposed, no difference. Contact tracing isn’t workable when there are hundreds of confirmed cases and thousands more who don’t know they’ve got the disease, random mass testing is only useful for statistical purposes and peace of mind for a lot of people while absorbing manpower and facilities that are needed for front-line medical services.
The restrictions being put in place now will slow the rate of infection, reducing the peak load on the medical services as well as giving time to ramp up medical facilities and arrange production of equipment like facemasks, ventilators etc. The genie is out of the bottle and there WILL be something like 36 million sufferers over the next nine months or so. Deluding ourselves on this is both pointless and self-defeating.
“Circling back” (as the saying goes): a week or 10 days ago, I mentioned that I had possibly been exposed via some AIPAC attendees staying at my hotel in DC. [And thanks again for all the words of support from the jackals.] Yesterday was Day 14 since my last contact with that group, and neither I nor my family appears to be exhibiting any symptoms.
Of course, I hope/expect that Ozark will greet this update with his usual “Blech.”
Anyway: my anxiety level has, at least for now, been reduced by a little. I’m sure I’ll find something to ratchet it back up, any day now.
@Eural Joiner: I am not sure which is worse but in Iran it spread along roadsides. Roadside services evidently spread it very well. I suspect bathrooms but no evidence. So if you drive assume every surface is contaminated.
“Well, Dick, it’s got a good beat and melody, and I can dance to it. I give it an 88!”
@SFAW:The Fed cut does make sense. Current bond rates imply the market is expecting essentially zero rates for the next decade. Yes, 10 years. IMO Trump is the rooster trying to claim credit for the sunrise here.
I’m confident that Orange Plague said it without understanding what you just pointed out, but even a stopped moron might be right once a year.
@Eural Joiner: Suggestions for the drive from prior experience: small/medium cooler in passenger seat with water bottles, canned cold coffee, grapes, apples and cheese sticks. A box of eyeglass wipes as they are mostly alcohol, a box of wet ones or baby wipes. Flashlight or combo flashlight and magnifying glass, maps just case, extra long charging cable for phone. Bottle of liquid soap in a ziplock bag and some small towels in their own Tupperware container. Container can be used as emergency sink if you bring extra water(1 gallon jug or two)
@Robert Sneddon: That’s simply not true. The Chinese data shows that strong social distancing reduces R0 below 1 and will eventually drive the virus to local extinction. That will work no matter how many are infected. Testing greatly speeds the process and we will have LOTS of uneployed people who can be trained to do nasal swabs and punch buttons on a PCR machine. These are not high skill tasks.
@satby: And they don’t even bother to conceal it. Feed the delusions of the Base and leave the chaff-production to the ever reliable normalisers of the modern day Political Media. Twofer.
@HeartlandLiberal: Remember it? It’s my retirement plan.
@Tony Jay: Pro tip: if you kill billionaires, there’s a 30% chance they drop toilet paper :)
Good to see you post, I’ve been hoping to hear from you about the UK mess. Eugenics is not too strong a word and we will be seeing that same attitude attempted here in the US. I think it’s part of the Russia war: some of these people are LITERALLY trying to get our populations to kill themselves in large numbers. Dangerous times, these.
@Eural Joiner: The drive will be a bitch, (don’t I know…I live in Ky and visited my sister in San Antonio a couple years ago – vowed never to do that drive again!) but getting on a sardine tin full of coughing people is NOT an option…what if you catch it and are too sick to take care of her? Do it the cautious way…besides, how do you know how well the rental car is cleaned?
@SFAW: No…short answer. Once you have pulled this trigger, there is literally NOTHING else the Fed can do in the event that there is a global meltdown, like there was in ’08. The right thing to do would have been to vacate the tax deal for the rich and dedicate those trillions to shoring up working people and small businesses. Instead, we have Krudlow and Nooch. And here we are…
@Eural Joiner: The drive is brutal but I would recommend that. Especially having a car you know and can stock up with supplies if needed. There has not been a run on gas so I think you should be safe.
@Fair Economist: The virus jumped species from some sort of mammal host, maybe bats. There is no way to make SARS-CoV-2 “extinct”, not without driving its wild hosts (bats maybe?) to extinction too. It’s going to be with us for a long time.
The UK government is making plans for another outbreak of the coronavirus next winter, something that is highly probable. There may be a workable vaccine by then, there may not. If there is a vaccine the number of doses available may be limited depending on production facilities and a host of other factors. Acquired immunity in most people/survivors may be the only thing that stops the next outbreak from being a serious as this one is.
As for testing, remember that people will need to be tested repeatedly, a negative test today doesn’t mean someone won’t get infected next week and then pass it on to all and sundry because “I got tested and it was negative! Let’s party!!!”
There’s no reported numbers of false positives and false negatives for all the different sorts of tests too, another reason to downplay the “testing kits will save us” approach to this mess.
Cheers, mate. I kind of backed away from posting anything about the catastrophic abdication of humanity and sense that historians have labelled The Recent UK General Election because even thinking about it made me want to cut people and kneel on throats. That kind of seething anger isn’t healthy, and, since the lavishly rewarded fuckers in Government seem determined to prove how disastrous the Electorate’s lack of soul has proven to be right the fuck away, I haven’t felt to need to point to it.
I’ll probably vent something long-winded and borderline rabid at some point, but in the meantime I’m just lurking.
Up until the last few words, I thought you were talking about ‘Murica. [No, not really.]
Are you SURE you’re not talking about America? Because a few of us feel the same way.
How would we be able to tell the difference from your normal writings? [Just kidding: I love reading your stuff. Well, the prose. The content is pretty effing depressing, of course.]
J R in WV
Tony, don’t do that! there’s way too much happening to talk about. Let us know what you really think, about everything…
More seriously, best of luck to you and yours over in Ol’ Blimey. I think we all need a bit o’ extra luck right now!
@Tony Jay: Good to hear from you again Tony Jay! Please keep us posted on how the “experiment” is going over there and stay well!
Here’s the depressing thing about that second graph–most of those numbers are not even close to reality (because of testing limitations).