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You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / COVID-19 Coronavirus Update: Monday / Tuesday, June 1-2

COVID-19 Coronavirus Update: Monday / Tuesday, June 1-2

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Commentor Soprano2 mentioned a new ‘preventative’ rumor being circulated at the local feed store. Yes, there are some experiments being done using ivermectin as a potential treatment; no, it is absolutely not a good idea to start hoarding (much less ingesting) cow dewormer, or canine heartworm pills. It’s used against guinea worm and river blindness in very small does; scaling up to the level that’s shown some possible effectiveness in vitro would be extremely dangerous. Just in case you need to rebut that one ever-gullible friend-of-a-friend on FaceBook.


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14Comments

  2. 2.

    Amir Khalid

    Malaysia’s daily numbers: 20 new cases — five from local infection including three foreign nationals, 15 import cases i.e. repatriating Malaysians. Total 7,877 cases.

    66 more patients recovered, total 6,470 recovered or 82.14% of all cases. Of 1,262 active cases, six are in ICU of whom two are on ventilators. No new deaths, for the 11th day in a row. Total stands at 115. Infection fatality rate 1.46%, case fatality rate 1.74%.

  5. 5.

    OzarkHillbilly

    If you look at Laurie Garret’s graph of

    Take a close look at this #COVID19 cumulative caseloads by country:
    1.) There is NO downturn in the USA. It’s a long burn, at best, a plateau

    Every line on that graph plateaus, not a single one drops off. All plateau lower than the US, most far lower, but none drops off. I am unsure of exactly what they mean by “cumulative case loads” but to me that means the total # since the beginning, in which case there would never be a drop off. So maybe they mean something different when they say “cumulative case loads”.

    Laurie Garrett is a far smarter person than I, and far more versed in handling and interpreting this kind of data than I, but it appears to me she has over/misinterpreted this bit.

  6. 6.

    terben

    From the Australian Dept of Health:

    ‘As at 3:00pm on 2 June 2020, a total of 7,221 cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Australia, including 102 deaths and 6,625 have been reported as recovered from COVID-19.

    Over the past week, there has been an average of 13 new cases reported each day. Of the newly reported cases, the majority have been from Victoria.

    A previously reported death has been revised and is no longer being classified as a COVID-19 associated death, bringing the total number of deaths down to 102.

    Of cases with a reported place of acquisition, 62.2% have recent international travel history, including over 1,300 cases associated with cruise ships.

    To date, over 1,490,000 tests have been conducted nationally. Of those tests conducted 0.48% have been positive.’

    There has been a decrease in the number of deaths. The most recent victim in Queensland has been excluded on the basis of post-mortem testing.

  7. 7.

    Amir Khalid

    The Al Jazeera story on immigrant detention centres in Malaysia is a bit late. Basically, the situation is well under control. Everyone at the detention centres, staff and detainees, has been tested, and those who tested positive have been hospitalised. Detainees who are negative are still awaiting deportation, and the ones in hospitals will be returned to detention once they have recovered. Contract tracing is going on with staff who tested positive; the detainees have all been in since before the outbreak.

    I’m not entirely happy with Malaysia’s treatment of illegal immigrants, but it is only enforcing its own laws. I am also not happy that Malaysia has never signed onto the Refugee Convention, but that is a separate issue.

  9. 9.

    prostratedragon

    @OzarkHillbilly:
    No, you’re right about cumulative never dropping off. When new cases tend toward zero, the updated cumulative graphs will level out. The U.S. graph in her illustration has begun to do this, but is still rising to my eye.

    She might be thinking of the daily increments, or deltas. These should drop off, and have done so for NYC although the absolute numbers still look a bit high, with new cases in the 00s and new deaths in the 0s at the end of last week. I’ve been comparing Chicago and New York graphs from the JHU data, and NYC is starting to level off but Chicago is still on the upswing. This concerns me enough that I’m going to be on the restrained side myself if the opening that’s been talked about proceeds soon.

  10. 10.

    Miss Bianca

    Jesus Christ, people better not be hoarding Ivermectin round here, I have to worm my horse with it.

    I try to tell myself that people in a cattle ranching area aren’t that dumb, then I look at some of the letters to the editor my paper gets.

  11. 11.

    PST

    @prostratedragon: With a cumulative chart and a logarithmic scale it’s tough to eyeball this chart and see anything meaningful about the USA. However, there really is no clear national trend toward fewer new cases daily. Illinois also looks pretty flat to me. It would suck to get infected, but at least hospitals here have responded successfully, and with a steady state of cases we can expect good treatment.

  12. 12.

    polyorchnid octopunch

    The FT chart’s thing to look for is the rate of change of the slope of the line. If it’s not changing, you’re getting steady spread, but not growing spread. If it becomes level, you have no spread at all. If the slope is moving closer to horizontal, the rate of growth is slowing.

  13. 13.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Final results from Wuhan’s mass screening, from 5/14 to 6/1 (18 days total):

    Individuals tested (all RT-PCRs): 9,899,828
    Confirmed cases: 0
    Asymptomatic cases: 300
    Positive rate: 0.303 / 10K, or 0.003%
    Close contacts of asymptomatic cases: 1,174 (all of whom have tested negative to date)

    All asymptomatic cases close contacts have been quarantined and placed under medical observation, unless they have been cleared with 2 negative PCR tests at least 24 hours apart. Overall, the data indicates that Wuhan’s currently prevalence is extremely low, and the asymptomatic cases are not pre-symptomatic and are not infectious.

    Now if only Wuhan will publish the seroprevalence surveys they have been conduction, so we can have an idea of the overall infection rate through the course of the epidemic here. I assume it will be lower than NYC, Lombardia, London, Stockholm, or Greater Madrid.

  14. 14.

    NS

    Laurie Garrett’s graph tweet should be removed from this otherwise helpful digest. The plateau in the number of cases in the USA isn’t really a plateau, it only looks that way because it’s a log scale. It’s not literally possible for that curve to go down — an actual plateau would represent significant improvement.

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