Just looking at the numbers, I think things are going to be worse than I expected this fall with Covid. Again, I’m no epidemiologist, statistician, or anyone particularly bright, but I thought we would hit our summer peaks somewhere around Thanksgiving, but it looks like we are BLOWING right the fuck through that. I had also sort of expected that the fall numbers would be fueled by college students, and it doesn’t seem that is the case, either.
So I think things are going to be far worse that I even imagined they would be in idiot nation, and I would recommend that each of you, if you can, buy dried beans and staples and be prepared for a brutal few months. If you take meds, talk with your doctor about getting a three-six month prescription. I think it is going to be very, very bad, and I don’t think anyone is prepared.
And there look to be a lot of superspreader ready events going on now and soon to come- voting, trick or treating, and then the holidays. It’s going to be ugly and we’re not a serious people.
Speaking of not serious people- this is the annual homecoming in my small town. The college cancelled it and moved it all online, yet a couple dozen alums from my peer group decided to come back and get together. They’re staying at local hotels and Oglebay resort, and a house in town, and just partying and being irresponsible as fuck. I’ve called them all out, and have deadbolted the doors on my house for the first time since living here. None of the people who stay with me are back because I told them all in June it was out of the question until there was a vaccine.
They toilet papered my car and trees last night for being a party pooper.
Again, grown ass adults with full time jobs who should know better.
CaseyL
Following the template of the 1918 Spanish Flu, then.
Yippee.
Chetan Murthy
John, I agree 100% with you. France is at 40k cases with 1/5 the population of the US. That’s our future. Re: your former classmates: holey moley. I mean, I’m your age, and the *last* thing I’m thinkin’ about is partying. I’m thinking about having the use of all my organs for the next 20+ years, fer crissakes.
These people: do they not realize how awful it’ll be, if they’re permanently crippled?
J R in WV
I agree with all you say. We have 3 big dogs, I’m going to need to get a ton of dog food in just for one thing. And our insurance won’t pay for most long term prescriptions, because if I die I won’t need them — Grrr!! But we’ll buy them anyway. Dried beans, a 25 pound sack of rice, more pasta, canned meats and vegs. etc.
Best of luck, jackals!
namekarB
So I guess I can rule out moving in with John (Oscar the Grouch) even if I show up on his doorstep with a 100lb bag of organic rice and a wheel barrow load of black-eyed peas. Well as long as my Netflix subscription lasts I can ignore the rest of the world
Zzyzx
I’m not worried about supply chain issues per se. I think we know enough now to know that this is a problem involving large numbers. Enough people will be fine that I think the wheels will continue to spin. It’s just that if .1% of the population has to be hospitalized over a 3 month period, the health care system will be overrun.
narya
Fully agree with you. A friend is trying to plan his annual quest for venison, in WI. It’s his family’s farm, and he intends to avoid people and mask up (he is very diligent about that), but I am still considering requiring a quarantine for him. He makes two trips, one to clear the lanes and one for the actual quest. Even though, as noted, he’s extremely careful, the whole state is just in super spreader mode. It probably depends on whether anyone else is at the farm. But damn
ETA: So VERY glad I got into the Rancho Gordo Bean Club. That, plus my farm share and fish share, and I can nearly avoid going anywhere.
Kent
You have some nice friends there John!
Mary G
You’re not alone:
WereBear
Well, I wager most of us have worked with “grown ass adults with full time jobs” and not been very impressed…
CaseyL
I need to do a major provision run next week, anyway. Catfood, too.
And I have a TP subscription now! A startup called “cloud paper” is making TP out of bamboo. I get 24 rolls delivered to my door every three months, plenty for my one-human household.
R-Jud
Over here in the U.K. I also have to consider that there may be no trade agreement with the E.U. in place on 1/1/21.
I’ve been adding a few extra things to each shop since March. Some for us, some for the local food banks.
Now is the winter of our discontent; glorious summer looking unlikely.
Kent
Here in the Pacific Northwest, the hospitals in Northern Idaho (Coeur d’Alene area) which is the MAGA and white supremacist epicenter of the region, are at over 100% capacity with people in the halls. So what are they doing? Starting to send overflow patients to the Portland and Seattle area.
And what does the local government do in response? THEY REPEAL THEIR FUCKING MASK MANDATE.
We do need a wall at the border…..the Idaho border.
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/10/idaho-hospitals-near-capacity-may-send-new-coronavirus-patients-to-portland-seattle.html
The same day:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-idaho-kootenai-county-drops-covid-mask-mandate-despite-hospital-doctors-warning/
Percysowner
I’m moving mid-November, so stocking up will be a pain. I will also leave behind my bidet, but I’ll get one in ASP because once you have one, you don’t want to be without. I hope once I’m in my new place I can stock up.
Nelle
@WereBear: I hope you collected the toilet paper.
zhena gogolia
@Zzyzx:
Yeah, I’m done with the whole stockpiling thing.
A Good Woman
I knew there was a reason for clearing out the storage locker.
raven
Ah Oglebay, one of the great fireplaces in the world and the Glassworks Lounge.
mrmoshpotato
This would be hilarious under other circumstances, but it’s just “Oh for fuck’s sake. Seriously? ??” right now.
zhena gogolia
I’m just resigned to seeing friends only via Zoom. I thank God I get along with my husband. He’s the only human I come in contact with except colleagues at a distance with masks and interacting for 30 seconds at a time. And starting in early December I won’t even see them — sabbatical this spring.
HinTN
@Zzyzx:
Don’t get me wrong, I take precautions. “Wash up, mask up, back up” guides every day. But I’m a fatalist. I think a vaccine is so far off that the vast majority of us is gonna get this damn thing. Hence your quote
is exactly right. It’s always been about saving the hospitals by flattening the curve.
Yutsano
@Kent: There’s a job I could take that would boost both my pay and my future job prospects. I refuse to even apply for it. Why? Cause it’s 30 miles away from Idaho in Spokane. And if you ever want to see how a Republican city is run, it’s Spokane. There’s no tax base since the rich white people took their white flight to the extreme and formed their own city. Both are struggling mightily because one has the jobs and the other has nothing but retail shops and can’t attract industry because neither funds their schools well. So yeah, I’d rather live in this Republican hellhole over that one. Until I can get back over to the Seattle area anyway.
randy khan
Looking at the state-by-state situation, what’s probably going to be different will be that the bulk of the increase is going to be in the places that never really took it seriously in the first place. The northeast seems to be doing better on the whole than, say, the upper Midwest. But luckily if we get President Biden he will care about those people just as much as the people who vote for him.
raven
If you don’t have ammo now you ain’t gonna get it.
mad citizen
I agree as well. My wife has been thinking about this, so she got us another large pack of our brand TP at costco the other day. Like Zzyzx above, I’m not too worried about supply chains–they’ll be SOMETHING to buy. Rice is a good idea, though (I’m not a bean eater); would never go for a 50 or hundred pound, but maybe something smaller. Some peanut butter also.
My wife and I are still scheduled for a Thanksgiving week plane trip (midwest to Sacramento) and back (7 days). I’m ready to cancel it, she is still holding out. I kinda wish Cali would tell us out-of-staters not to come, but got the impression from their website the “tourist attractions are open, take precautions, etc.” maybe they want the dollars. Not sure I would enjoy travel in these times, too uncomfortable. Being home makes sense to me.
Bought a second air horn today in preparation for upcoming celebrations.
germy
Every evening after dinner my wife and I go for a walk.
Different routes in the neighborhood. Yesterday we walked down a street that has some taverns on one side. As we walked by one tavern, I glanced inside and saw two people at the bar with no masks. Just hanging out, sipping drinks, having a good time.
CaseyL
I’ve loved WFH, and UW Medicine is VERY on top of this, so I anticipate WFH will now be extended indefinitely. Which is absolutely aces with me.
Other than that, my in-person social activities for the past 7 months have been limited to hamburger runs with a friend (in separate cars, eating in the back with the hatch open, picnic style) and watching football with the neighbors at their house. Though I may have to stop doing the latter if they start going out socially again.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
We’re geared up for a contactless Halloween. Got a pumpkin and a reasonable supply of candy via grocery delivery; we don’t go to stores. We’re planning on going by the honor system, putting the candy in a basket near the curb with a sign.
I don’t expect hungry candy-mongers to actually abide by the honor system but my plan is to keep only a few candy bars in the basket at a time and refill it between trick-or-treaters.
If we have any. If we don’t, I guess we’re getting through the winter on Peppermint Patties and Reese’s cups.
Harvest it! Add it to your bunker.
WV Blondie
I was planning for a major Costco run whenever I get paid for an assignment I finished right after Labor Day (looks like the USPS fuckup has delayed it, of course). Think there are some things I’ll double up on, if Costco allows it, and restock my currently-dormant standing freezer.
JohnPM
My 2 oldest sons, senior and sophomore in high school, just recently tested positive for COVID-19. Oldest had a fever aches and chills, which went away after about 4 days. Other son had a headache for a few days. My youngest son, my wife and I have tested negative so far. My wife is a teacher and has 3 negative tests so far.
We are in one of the responsible states, with everyone in our area wearing masks, social distancing, washing hands, etc. We have always been careful when going out. Both boys play sports and had been practicing with strict rules in place to prevent spread. Boys have also been schooling from home for 2 months. They were supposed to start hybrid schooling this past week, but that got put on hold.
We could have easily decided not to tell anyone and sent the boys to school and activities since their symptoms went away so quickly, but we didn’t because we know how important it is to stop the spread. We keep telling people that you only need to make a mistake once to catch the virus, so it infuriates me to see so many people doing nothing or actively flouting best practices.
raven
I’m so optimistic I started wearing my hearing aids again!
Mary G
@mad citizen: I get ads all the time: Californians, vacation in your own state! And Disney is pushing to reopen its parks, but that seems to be a nonstarter with the governor, at least until spring.
Kent
@Yutsano: I actually have some hope for Spokane because it does have some good bones and great urban neighborhoods and will likely get growing spillover from urban pioneer types who can’t afford Seattle or Portland, or even Tacoma anymore. The city itself is blue but the rest of the region is bright red.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html#10.70/47.679/-117.339
My daughter is applying to Gonzaga right now along with about 8 other schools in the region. She has friends applying there and going there now so it’s on her radar but I think would only rise to the top if (1) she doesn’t get into UW, and (2) they offer a lot more merit aid than any of the other liberal arts colleges on the west side of the cascades like UPS and Lewis & Clark.
germy
My wife is a very nice person, with many friends.
And because she is a nice person, she has many friends that I would have lost patience with and cut off many years ago.
Last week, one of her friends visited. They strolled the neighborhood together, visited some shops, but then the friend needed to come inside to use our bathroom. They wore masks outside, but my wife’s friend removed her mask when she entered our house. Very friendly, loud and close talker.
I tried to understand her thinking, and this is what I came up with: She wears her mask when she goes to the store, etc., and then removes her mask when she returns home. So her brain told her “I’m coming into a home from outside, so I’ll remove my mask.”
Not enough people take this seriously. Even the well-intentioned ones, they’re sometimes clueless and careless.
Chetan Murthy
@Mary G: John’s post nudged me to write a letter to my mayor and supervisor, thanking them for keeping us safe, and letting them know that in the coming hard times, if they take a hard line to keep us safe, I and others will be supporting them.
Just so they know that not everybody is bitchin’ and moanin’ b/c the gyms are still closed.
ETA: I mean, yeah, I’m bitchin’ and moanin’ about that: but I’m doin’ so in private, not in fucking public. I’m not a self-centered asshole.
mad citizen
@WV Blondie: Costco junkie here. Wonder if it would work a quantity-limited item once, walking about, then just coming back in the store for a new purchase? So wondering if they tie you membership to what you’re buying in, say, a day. Seems like this is where a couple have an advantage if they make two separate purchases.
One day a couple months ago I was asking about a few items–my wife always wants rubbing alcohol. They said they had some one day(!). I was glad to score a new box of nitrile gloves recently–and glad they came back.
Was watching the news the other day and a rural hospital was talking about how their people get ONE N95 mask per week. Why aren’t we making/getting MORE? One more failure of our orange leader.
M31
the last couple of months, despite how bad it’s been, I kept thinking “yet by winter we’ll look back and think those were the good times”
so, spending as much time outside as I can while the weather is good, and doing household tasks like put in a new brick patio and a new granite countertop (had the bricks, had the granite, just needed to cut it etc.) — work but not too much, and also with visible positive results
Chetan Murthy
@germy:
You let her enter your house? Your. House. ? Wow. I sure wouldn’t. I mean, I’m quarantining as much as my mom is, and yet when I deliver groceries to her house, I *never* hug her. *never*. And even though she’s invited me up for lunch a few times, I *never* accept. I don’t wanna kill her.
ETA: OK, to use the bathroom. Still, I’d be really visibly reluctant, and for sure wouldn’t allow her to take off her mask. And afterwards, while she’s still present, I’d start with 2-3 rounds of disinfectant spraying in the bathroom with bleach solution. Just so she’s clear on her presence being a danger. I mean, that’s what my sister’s BF does when I come over with the groceries: he stays six feet away from me, and everything I hand him gets sprayed-down. Everything. He makes no assumptions about my being uninfected, even with all my precautions.
germy
@Chetan Murthy:
I was shocked, and pissed.
After she left, I sort of gave my wife an angry lecture.
She agreed with me. I know this because she’s not the type to usually listen quietly to an angry lecture.
Omnes Omnibus
However this winter works out, this situation is a direct result of having the GOP have any power anywhere. This could have been stooped with a four week or so real shut down in the spring and then protocols for how and when to do local shut down in hot spots. Instead we are doing half-assed things that aren’t enough but, the same time, manage to be annoying and inconvenient.
Now, with that said, I am going to go vote.
different-church-lady
I guess this means the Great Toilet Paper Crisis of 2020 is officially over.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
Fine, let them die, or suffer.
I am not a nice person.
mad citizen
I got candy today for the trick or treaters in our little neighborhood. I expect it to happen, since we’re mostly ignoring the virus around here. I do remember one year we left to eat or something and left the candy in a bowl on our porch.
Watched Borat last night–better than I expected. I am a Borat fan, though. I’d like to see a “making of” since they started shooting it in at least January, pre-widespread virus. It seemed like he either lived with or spent a LOT of time with a couple QAnon guys in the Northwest. They they fixed having Borat’s daughter’s picture come up on the website the QAnon guy was looking at, which led into the rally scene.
I saw Cohen on Good Morning America. He said after the Secret Service escorted him out of the CPAC event, they never checked his ID. Good work, boys.
This morning I watched a police recording from Lilburn Georgia asking Borat about why he had the young lady sitting on top of his truck, and it was January 27. One of the cops figured it out, tried to see if he could get Borat to break character, but was not successful. The scene was not in the movie.
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/documents/celebrity/borat-georgia-cops-714386
Noncarborundum
We’re living through the London Blitz, and the neighbours* are insisting that Nazis are a hoax and covering your windows at night forces you to rebreathe your exhaled carbon monoxide.
—————–
*London, don’tcha know.
Litlebritdifrnt
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: I am planning a Thanksgiving with my Sis and BIL with a Turkey Crown and all the timmings. Only trouble is DH is having to order canned pumpkin from Amazon because it is not available in stores over here. It is horribly expensive but he does so much want a Pumpkin Pie.
germy
@comrade scotts agenda of rage:
That’s not how it works, though.
They catch a mild case, but then spread it to others (including the elderly) who suffer and die.
JoyceH
I too think it’s going to be worse than anything we’ve experienced before. My last grocery run was larger than usual, and I’m going to make some Amazon Pantry orders for canned and dried goods. Planning to spend all the holidays on my own, for the first time in my life.
But I think I know when a big chunk of the population that is currently not taking the pandemic seriously will start paying attention. About a week after election day.
Why? Because Trump is out there right now telling them that the current surge is a ‘hoax’ by the librul media to make him look bad. And that the day after the election they’ll just stop mentioning it. (How can he think such a daffy thing? Because that’s what HE would do. Heck, it’s what he DID – can you say ‘caravan’?) Well, when the election comes and goes, and the media is still covering the latest and worse surge of the pandemic, the Trumpies will scratch their asses and furrow their brows, and go, ‘Huh, maybe this thing is real?’
Kent
@mad citizen: Sacha Baron Cohen has more cojones than any other 10 men.
I still laugh looking at the clip where he pranked Bernie Sanders. Not as over the top as when he did the pedophile detector bit with Roy Moore, but still funny:
https://youtu.be/A-gjf4WnkiI
The Dangerman
So, still waking up, but you are saying things should go to shit with Covid roughly the same time things are going to shit over the election results (I think Trump will lose bigtime and he and the MAGAts are gonna be pissed).
I chose the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
I forget when the USSC Is gonna toss the ACA and I don’t know how that gets unwound (as if the Right cares; they just wanna blow shit up). If that happens during the shitstorm of Covid and unrest (which could last a while) … I’ll be back to glue sniffing.
I don’t know what to say about the supply chain question. Some days I am not concerned while other days I can see signs that this will be all kinds of not good.
Cheryl Rofer
Went for a walk with a friend this morning, before the storm that’s supposed to arrive tomorrow.
I’m not worrying (much) about supply chains. After the initial shock in March thru May, things seem to be coming back to an equilibrium. I’ve got a grocery that delivers a nice variety of things, including much local produce. I stocked up on potatoes and onions at the Farmers’ Market this morning, and I stocked up on lots of things earlier in the year.
At worst, I think I can keep going for around six months with what I have, and as long as stuff is available and I keep restocking, I’ll be fine.
But I’m going to try to further minimize going to the store.
different-church-lady
@JoyceH: NOV 2: “THE VIRUS IS A HOAX!!!”
NOV 4: “THE VIRUS IS GOING TO KILL US ALL!!! WHY HASN’T BIDEN DONE ANYTHING ABOUT THIS???”
Sure Lurkalot
It’s not that I disagree with this PSA…I’m sitting on lots of paper products and other items myself. But very many can not afford to stockpile months of supplies and food, many do not have the room or an additional refrigerator or freezer. I tried to buy a small 6 or 7 cu. ft. freezer on line this summer…guess I just didn’t click the right day because it never happened.
The mania leads to hoarding as well as increased anxiety for those who simply cannot stockpile. So I have mixed feelings about these messages.
dmsilev
@different-church-lady: No, TP’ing someone’s house is the new form of conspicuous consumption.
MomSense
We’d have almost no virus here in Maine if it weren’t for the religious fanatics who “don’t have to follow the laws of man” so they hold packed church services and then proceed to cause a bunch of outbreaks at nursing homes, jails, workplaces, and schools.
different-church-lady
Okay, look… remember March? Remember when nobody knew anything about any of this, and it was still cold, and we were worried that we couldn’t get anything to wipe our asses with?
Remember that somehow we all ended up wiping our asses anyway?
We need to worry about whether the economy is going to re-crash, not whether we have beans and paper goods.
zhena gogolia
@different-church-lady:
Yep.
raven
@different-church-lady: Don’t ruin the fun!
NotMax
Not particularly concerned when it comes to grocery shopping. Folks here are assiduous about masking, plus I shop only once per month.
I don’t ever drink milk, so no worries about having to run out to get some fresh. Have shelf stable milk boxes in the house to use for recipes which require the stuff.
Also, in this climate keeping industrial size amounts of rice or beans would be the equivalent of hanging a flashing neon sign on the front door announcing an all you can eat smorgasbord for insects. Other side of that coin is being able to step into the yard year round to pick oranges or lemons.
mad citizen
@different-church-lady: The Trumper theory is that it will all go away Nov. 4. What an amazing reveal that is going to be. All those hospitalized will get up and walk out. All those dead and buried people will rise and resume their lives.
I think jackal Nelle nailed it the other day–I copied and pasted the short comment, but never replied in the thread ’cause it was dying. But it was that Trump is jealous of all the attention the COVID gets.
From Aaron Rupar’s twitter feed, trump at a rally TODAY: “”That’s all I hear about now. Turn on TV, ‘Covid, Covid, Covid Covid Covid.’ A plane goes down, 500 people dead, they don’t talk about it. ‘Covid Covid Covid Covid.’ By the way, on November 4th, you won’t hear about it anymore … ‘please don’t go and vote, Covid!'” — Trump”
FlyingToaster
@OP:
Yep; Massachusetts numbers look like July. What contact tracing we know of (Charlie Baker remains a GOP tool) points to Labor Day and since [illegal] unmasked family gatherings. Like the 35 drunk unmasked Massholes in a backyard in Southie. Multiplied by 1000.
That’s a little murkier. We have had explicit outbreaks at colleges here (BC, Merrimack, Holy Cross), asshats getting suspended for the semester at Northeastern and BU), followed by much larger outbreaks in the bedroom communities where the service workers for those unis and surrounding businesses live. The larger outbreaks are family gatherings; the patient zero exposure seems to be exposure in public-facing jobs.
And students may be in a bubble, but they still need to run to CVS for Advil and deodorant. And if they stop in front of the Hong Kong on the way back and pull down their mask to talk to their friends…
J R in WV
@Cheryl Rofer:
Yeah, I need potatoes and onions, DF, Cat kibble, TP, canned goods, pasta, and so much more.
I’ll go to Aldi’s first, they have great coffee for much less than Krogers. TP too, and I got enough hand sanitizer there back last winter as the Plague started to ramp up, we still have quite a bit.
Then PetSmart for DF, like 6 or 8 30 pound sacks to start with, the same amount each time I go to town the next few weeks. A local Chinese market for lots of ramen, spices, etc. Kroger’s for most fresh food, etc. I have storage out in the shop for a vast amount of dog food, which given we have 2 nearly 50 pound youngster dogs and one 80 pound older Lab mix, a vast amount is what we will need.
At least I did get gravel delivered and spread on the road up to the homestead. 5 truckloads of #4 rock, larger stuff, and 4 or 5 truckloads of #57 rock, smaller, to fill in around the #4 rock. The most driveway gravel in many years. We try to do that during a dry spell, the rock sinks into the underlying soil much more slowly that way.
Ksmiami
@Percysowner: pre order amazon with a set up your home kit, cleaning supplies, towels, sheets, broom, cook tools basic foodstuffs etc
Sure Lurkalot
As to the message that things are going to get shitshow bad, I agree. Every Covid article in the online Denver Post elicits mostly negative comments about how everyone over 70 and/or is obese, is asthmatic or diabetic should be locked up so the rest can go live their lives. Or it’s a matter of courage…if you’re not brave enough to get sick then go into your hidey hole forever, sucker.
It saddens me that Covid is exploding pretty much worldwide because the concept of shared sacrifices appears DOA. An old Outer Limits episode had scientists inventing a hostile alien to unite warring humans against a common enemy. The common enemy Covid seems to have done the opposite IRL.
JoyceH
Back during the toilet paper drought, I read an article about the issue, and it said that everyone had stocked up on residential paper because they were at home and other companies made commercial TP and they had more than enough because all the commercial establishments were closed. But switching from commercial to residential would require an entire retooling of the factories so that wasn’t going to happen. So hey, I went on Amazon and searched on ‘commercial toilet paper’. That’s the TP that’s used in stores and restaurants and office buildings, comes in great big rolls. I ordered some of that, and then when the Charmin reappeared in the local grocery, I went back to using Charmin. Told myself I was all stocked up for the winter and indeed, I have about 10 big rolls which ought to last to the spring.
Sister Golden Bear
@Sure Lurkalot: Agreed. An 800 sq ft house without much closet space and no basement isn’t conducive to major stockpiling.
Also the Bay Area’s rates were generally fairly low and are currently dropping because our governments and most people have been taking it seriously.
Plus, as Cheryl said, I’m not that worried about the supply chains, since after the initial shock, people have figured out alternatives and creative solutions. E.g. my neighborhood (non-chain) grocery store has a huge pile of TP sourced from Mexico, several local restaurants now sell groceries on the side (leveraging the restaurant industry supply chains), etc.
That said, I am trying to keep enough extra on hand to get through a two-week quarantine without having to get delivery, since it’s also good earthquake prep.
ETA: It also helps to be in California where the produce supplies are much shorter.
different-church-lady
@raven: Odd definition of ‘fun’ you have.
kindness
I think the US is headed for a wee bit of Darwinism wrt Covid. Too many have made it a political issue. I’m sad for the innocents they infect. The buttheads though…not so much.
Timurid
The good news is that I went shopping after voting last Saturday and am set for about two months. The bad news is that I’ll have to go back out in mid/late December when we’ll probably be hitting a raging peak…
Geoduck
My house got exactly one trick or treater last year, so not much will change on that front, I suspect. I’ll still put out a small bowl of candy.
Try to keep the freezer full of veggies and meat, and lots of cans of stuff in the pantry.
Matt McIrvin
@JohnPM:
Worse: you can get it without making any mistakes, because other people were careless. It’s practically impossible for most of us to stay 100% isolated. The chance is always there even if, when you go out for groceries or whatever, you mask up and do everything right. That’s the really wearying thing.
And our whole society keeps trying to create incentives to push us right up to the edge, too. You can’t lock down hard if nobody else is doing it.
Ivan X
I don’t know what the fuck to do about my brother’s family (his wife and four kids ranging from 5 to 18) here in the CA central coast. When it all first started, we podded with them. But now, I think they engage in serial magical thinking because they find the emotional cost of social distancing too painful (they’re extroverts, unlike my partner and me). So we restricted ourselves to having dinner with them in their side yard a couple of times a week. But they just have so many nodes of potential exposure, between the nanny, and housekeeper, and handyman, and occasional friends who come by, and neighbor, and doggy day camp woman, and the little one’s tennis lessons and pod school, and the older girl’s babysitting, and going into their office where they have installed an exercise machine that people take turns using. And now they just came back from a week in Mexico at a resort because they needed a break from it all.
I think *they* think they’re being safe enough, and maybe they think we’re crazy (but if so, they’ve never said so). But for me, the stakes with this thing are just too high. I don’t even think we’re that extreme, compared to some, just middle-of-the-road safe. And I think my mental health is certainly suffering in these times too, so I’m not judging, exactly, but what do we do? Never see them at all, including our nieces and nephews (and we don’t have kids, so they’re like our own)? Make sure we stand 25 feet away outside with masks?
It’s a tough fucking time.
LuciaMia
@J R in WV: Frozen stuff gets bought up fast too. Stock up on those.
Winston
Amazon has good deals on TP and PT right now. Walmart also, though they can sell out pretty fast. I get all my groceries delivered from Walmart every two weeks. They offered to give me “free” delivery if I paid them $98 for the next year. Worked out to my advantage to do so. They were charging $9.95 per delivery, so now all it costs me it a $5 tip to the driver. I don’t see this service getting stressed but I still stock up on stuff. I have to order $35 minimum, but it’s just me here so that is plenty to get what ever I need. Figure I saved $130 per year by paying in advance.
Starting to see a lot of snowbirds arriving.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
My temporary solution for TP during shortages was to order from people on Etsy. There were people printing little things on TP rolls and repackaging them to sell individually. They were the 250-sheet puffy rolls that only last about 2 days in our house, but we were able to get enough to get us through. Ridiculous markup of course, but I never mind supporting artists on Etsy, especially right now.
NotMax
@J R in WV
Knew a guy with a second-hand 3 ton dump truck. Bunch of us were involved in a big project (tile field) on his property out in the country which required lots and lots and lots of trips to the quarry to pick up #4 stone and made use of his truck for that.
He only was around on weekends and did the driving then, decided things were going too slowly for his taste so got impatient and reached the point of loading more and more each trip into the truck bed, to the point where several lug bolts on the wheels snapped clean in two.
Punchy
Just read a comment on a different blog that said Trump is way up in early voting in FL. Cant find independent verification, but offshore odds have def swung to the GOP side for FL, so thats some indirect confo. Anyone heard this too? Apparently its the strong Latino/Cuban vote for Trump, which is really hard to understand.
Fair Economist
@zhena gogolia: In March I could scarcely find beans. Now they’re half price in display racks.
raven
@different-church-lady: Freaking out is great fun for many BJ’rs
JPL
@Punchy: hmm I read the opposite..
LuciaMia
And demanding “Why isnt Biden solving this immediately?”
Gvg
I don’t think the supply chain will break again. I think I have most of my shopping worked out and I would actually prefer working from home again. The University students have not caused huge outbreaks here. Just a steady small surge. The rest of the state seems nuts and the governor is a problem. I am getting frustrated at not being able to shop for a few things like flooring and furniture. I’d really like a better chair for sitting in especially if I have to work from home again and I want to rip out the carpets because of allergies but can’t browse for flooring….I may go concrete and throw rugs.
the length of the problem is stressing lots of businesses and even small governments like counties and small towns. Schools are hurting. Ignoring it won’t work like idiots propose. Get the useless denialist out of office and then we’ll get somewhere.
Winston
Just wanted to mention the new Rona cases are 62,000 so far today at 4 pm est in USA. That’s high, esp for a Saturday. Looks like 7 day average of cases will be near 75,000 for the next week or so.
Poptartacus
@johncole: you certainly have a higher then average share of asshole friends.
Sad
Ivan X
@Punchy: One comment on one blog does not a trend make. If the yoot vote is up at the levels that it appears to be, and Trump loses a lot of olds as he is predicted to, I think we’re ok in FL. I think it will be close, but we’ll be ok.
ETA: I do not think bettors matter. At all.
Punchy
@JPL: Early voting almost always favors the Dems, so thats why Im not sure I trust the comment. But clearly bettors have –overnite– thrown a bunch of $ on FL going to the Repubs, enough to move the odds significantly……
cleek
Mrs has been urging me for weeks to start stocking up.
“but it’s all carbs!” i remind her.
Winston
@Punchy: I’m hearing the opposite.
mrmoshpotato
@different-church-lady:
Count on it from every right wing crank (but I repeat myself).
Carol
I hope you saved the toilet paper for future use.
Punchy
@Winston: excellent. Thanks for lowering my BP with this info!
TriassicSands
Not true, John.
Donald Trump is prepared. After all HE’S IMMUNE, so we can all just get fucked!
Winston
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363
@ punchy : Good article.
WaterGirl
@different-church-lady: I land more on Cole’s side of this.
It becomes increasingly more risky to go out food shopping when the number of cases is exploding.
FelonyGovt
Went for a walk down by the beach here in Southern California today and there were tons of people playing volleyball and hanging around on the beach in large groups, no masks or social distancing. Morons.
Ivan X
@FelonyGovt: Here in SB I saw *15* youngish people, unmasked, get into *one* van.
A Ghost to Most
@raven: That’s what happens when toxic positivity meets reality.
germy
Aleta
Even if no supply shortages happen in an area, stocking up a bit now if you have room will still help if cases increase dramatically. Fewer shoppers = less stress on store employees. Will makes shopping and distancing easier for the people who can’t stock up. Shorter time in line, and faster in and out, is safer for them. As well as reducing the stress absorbed by kids when the providers get home tired.
eddie blake
@mad citizen:
it’s not tang the conqueror or his legion of derp.
it’s the goddamn fascist gop. they pulled the EXACT same shit with obama and ebola.
ALL they know how to DO is project their own SINS.
different-church-lady
@Punchy: For what it’s worth: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/24/1989168/-Joe-Biden-builds-solid-19-advantage-in-Florida-with-early-voting-58-to-39-per-St-Pete-Poll?utm_campaign=trending
Cheryl from Maryland
My godson in Germany was telling me that he went to a small (10) people cookout and the host tested positive a few days later. Host didn’t call everyone about his test; my godson heard it from another participant. Fortunately, my godson tested negative. After a discussion of how assholes gonna asshole, he told me the host is off the friend list. Assholes are everywhere! Mask up and be safe (godson has many masks I’ve made).
E.
@Kent:
See, this does not surprise me. A County health department or government rescinding the mask rules just as their hospitals overflow is precisely how these people, I mean rural and rural-ish communities, think. I don’t understand it but I live in such a place. It’s like every time a fact gets in the way of their fantasy they just double down.
WV Blondie
@mad citizen: I don’t know – though once I tried making two separate purchases in one transaction (one for my neighbor, paid with cash, one for me, paid with card) and they did run the card twice, once for each. But that was BP (before pandemic).
What I’m concerned about is that they’ll start limiting various meat purchases to one per visit. Only one turkey breast, only one pork loin, only one pack of hamburger, etc. – it would take a lot of trips to fill the freezer …
Punchy
@different-church-lady: This comports with what I’ve always heard about early voting — it favors the Ds. So that link restores my confidence in what I have always thought. And knowing if Biden takes FL its game, set, match…..puts a smile on my mug.
gwangung
@different-church-lady:
Yeah, the point that Souls to the Polls hasn’t started yet is VERY encouraging…
narya
@Ivan X: My brother lives a thousand miles away, so I don’t have to deal with what I’m sure would be similar behavior. That said, he and my SIL don’t always mask up around my parents, who are 85 and 90, and it makes me insane. In general, bro has been very helpful to my parents, and I appreciate that, but he does not seem to think this virus needs to be taken seriously. I’m worried my parents will decide it’s okay to do Thanksgiving or Christmas with them.
RSA
It’s going to be ugly because we’re a parochial and in some ways a deeply stupid people.
I mention parochialism because one would think that when arguing with Trump supporters, who often think he’s doing fine on COVID, it would be enough to say, “4% of the world’s population, 20% of the world’s COVID deaths.” Nope. Even at 200,000+ American deaths, Trump has claimed to have saved 2 million, and they believe him.
Matt McIrvin
@different-church-lady: I saw that FL St. Pete poll or one like it today– as I recall, it showed Biden ahead only 48-46, BUT the crosstabs were hiding something fascinating: a large majority of the Biden supporters had already voted, and the Trump supporters mostly hadn’t; they were just planning (and considered likely) to vote later.
Those votes for Biden are locked in. Those people aren’t going to change their minds or stay home. Anything that happens between now and Nov. 3 won’t affect those votes. And given how Florida runs this, they’ll be counted on Election Day too.
That made me feel a lot better. Not necessarily about Florida, which is obviously very close, but if that’s the pattern across the country, it’s a really good thing. Biden doesn’t specifically need Florida, ; it’s just a way he could put it away early.
namekarB
I live just north of Sacramento in Placer County. The bulk of our covid cases are in SoCal. We are actually doing pretty well in this area compared to the Midwest. But we are talking Thanksgiving which is like a lifetime now and ail hell could break loose between now and then. Here is our County Dashboard if you want to check periodically
https://www.placer.ca.gov/DocumentCenter/View/46267/dashboard?bidId=#cases
Matt McIrvin
@Matt McIrvin:
correction: 49-47.
Kay
@Cheryl from Maryland:
The handmade masks have really been one of the few bright spots in this thing. Various people have made them and given them to me and they always give me a lift. I have florals, paisley, a zebra stripe – my assistant’s mother makes them in bright colors- she gave me red.
Matt McIrvin
@Punchy: What they’re probably talking about is in-person early voting running more Republican than the earlier mail-in voting, which seems to be happening all over. But that’s to be expected. The mail-ins were so lopsidedly Democratic that the in-person could hardly help but be more Republican. Election Day voting is probably going to be overwhelmingly Republican because such a large fraction of Democrats already voted earlier.
Not particularly worrying in itself. I think we’ve overwhelmed the system with so many early votes that it’s hard to imagine any serious efforts to throw them all out, for instance. So those votes are as good as any.
Nutmeg again
@J R in WV: I like Chewy.com. Great dog food delivery. I have not (yet) heard anything awful about them…
Brachiator
@John Cole:
Sorry you had to deal with this kind of asinine and immature nonsense.
different-church-lady
@Matt McIrvin: The real comfort in these reports is that the window for rat-fucking keeps getting closer to being closed. Throwing a bomb in the last week affects a smaller and smaller pool of voters with each passing moment.
chopper
@CaseyL:
the wife is faculty at uw medicine and they’ve been solid from the beginning when it comes to WFH. thank god.
debbie
@WaterGirl:
I do all my errands early on Saturday mornings. I zip in, out, and around people before they even see me. I’m back home by 10a.m. That’s as low risk as I can get.
My problem is that after weeks and weeks of empty shelves, I can’t stop thinking I need to buy more and more. The only thing holding me back is lack of space.
WaterGirl
@debbie: I’m planning on changing my shopping strategy after reading the article that concluded that:
You can get COVID from any fifteen minutes of exposure within a 24-hour period, and those 15 minutes don’t have to be all in one place or all at one time. Just 15 minutes of exposure to the virus within a 24-hour period.
So I’m thinking maybe more frequent shopping trips but in-and-out in less than 15 minutes. And only one store a day.
Matt McIrvin
This Politico article’s headline and opener is almost certainly what inspired the conversation Punchy saw:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/24/republicans-florida-early-vote-democrats-432135
Yeah, it’s just dramatizing the obvious and inevitable fact that, after an extremely Democratic early mail-in vote, the numbers are somewhat more even with the in-person votes.
And talking up the specific groups where Biden isn’t doing great (if Biden wins Florida, I’m a bit sorry to say it, but it’ll be because old white people more than made up for his black and Latino losses relative to earlier cycles). And quoting a bunch of Republicans talking up their guy.
debbie
@WaterGirl:
Hmmm. Interesting. ?
A Ghost to Most
@Nutmeg again: We’ve used Chewy for years. Thumbs up.
Gretchen
@WaterGirl: do you have a link to that article? I’ve read that you have to inhale a minimum number of virus particles to get sick, and that seems less likely over several short exposures. Limiting outings per day seems like a good idea.
Tim C.
@different-church-lady: they have thrown all the bombs they have with any real chance of working; likewise, if they had been smart they would have shut the fuck up about mail in “fraud” and saved that argument as a surprise for election night. But when you have a cult you start to forget you aren’t actually perfect
WaterGirl
@Gretchen: It was a Washington Post article. Someone linked to it here in a thread, and then it was the top tweet in one of Anne Laurie’s COVID threads this past week.
catclub
Not sure what you mean. That sounds great!
catclub
Then the Chinese have saved 15 Million plus 219,000
Gvg
@Punchy: Nobody knows. They may guess based on party registration but they don’t know because, although Florida counts mail in votes and early votes ahead of time, it’s against state law to announce any results before the polls close Tuesday. It makes people think why bother if their candidate is behind OR way ahead, so it suppresses the vote and there the state said it’s secret till ALL state polls close. We have 2 time zones and almost always some polls have to stay open late by some injunction or other or long lines.
Democrats stressed mail in voting because of Covid which is counted separately than “early” vote in person, therefore the early vote should probably have more republican voters in some areas maybe.
My county is bluish surrounded by red because of the University. The closest early voting site has averaged an hour to an hour and a half wait in a fast but long line every day this week. That is way above normal. This is a high population area of the county. Some other sites are faster, fewer people. The University is actually one of the quickest sites. Students are mostly still remote or only on campus a little. Strange semester. I just heard on Nextdoor that they ring a bell for each first time voter to celebrate which is a nice gesture to encourage them to get in the habit.
Turn out total appears to be headed for a record.
Gvg
@Gretchen: it’s the latest CDC guideline, so multiple articles written about it this week.
rafah
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: That’s the problem, it’s almost never the assholes who die, it’s always their mom, or their grandma or they give it to a friend and that poor friend spreads it to his whole family. I remember a news article about a teenage kid in Texas who thought he just had strep throat and went to his grandpa’s birthday, got his dad sick, his grandpa, his aunt who was in cancer treatment. It’s always the weak ones who pay for these idiots.
Another Scott
@Gretchen: Helen Branswell has this pointer:
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
J R in WV
I’ve had an industrial respirator for years, farm use with herbicides, workshop use when sanding wood, etc. The filters are n100, and they also do (though it isn’t important for Covid) serkious industrial poisonous gases.
When I was loading supplies into the back of the vehicle, next to me was an old Suburban running on 6 out of 8 cylinders. It was spitting blue smoke onto my ankles and feet — but I couldn’t smell anything, so I believe the 3M respirator really works.
Then I ordered a new one for Wife when she had medical appointments, or to go vote, etc. At first I expected the filters would be hard to replace, bot not so far. They aren’t cheap, but they last for several trips into town.
FYI: The filters are 3M #60926, and they fit a number of different respirators. The last ones I received expire on 07.2025, so they last a long time in the foil pack. Ordering from Amazon via the Balloon Juice link on the front page supports Cole’s squirrels to keep B-J running smoothly.
J R in WV
@NotMax:
Well, that sounds like a typical country work party style FU.
I ordered my stone from the local farm supply guys, they deliver with a 10 ton truck. I can get it a little cheaper from the big stone yard on the river, but they use a tri-axle 20 ton truck, which is a little big for our country roads.
mad citizen
@namekarB: Thanks for the link.