You’re nervous, I’m nervous, most people are nervous. I was on a business call earlier with a fellow American and a few people from other countries, and everyone on the call was nervous.
James Carville and David Plouffe aren’t nervous though:
Carville says we’ll know the outcome by 10 o’clock tomorrow evening. Could they be wrong? Sure, but they orchestrated two victorious Democratic presidential campaigns against Republican incumbents, so they probably know what they’re talking about. In stark contrast, I do not have any political insights aside from being a partisan observer who is often wrong. This was my prediction about two weeks ago:
I think many of us are still so traumatized by 2016 that, although we know Trump really is a moron who’s running the worst fucking campaign any of us have ever seen in our lifetimes, we dare not draw the obvious conclusions.
I mean, it’s understandable. I was certainly way overconfident, and it haunts me. But a whole flock of black swans had to land just so to drag Trump’s stupid orange ass over the finish line last time, and now he’s not only got a hideous record as an incumbent to explain, he steps on rake after rake after rake as a candidate.
There’s the super-spreader events, which Trump might possibly be the only person on the planet holding right now because it’s so fucking dumb. There’s the “army” that’s being set up to harass each other and the broke-ass fraudster campaign staff and advisors. There’s the rising wave of infections that may crest at the exact time Trump needs his idiot followers to show up in person to vote.
I think he’s going to lose in humiliating fashion. I think the race will be called reasonably early on election night. And I think with that perspective, we’ll marvel at how much we agonized these past few months. I am not counting chickens! But that’s my sense of it now. He’s a fucking idiot heading for a gigantic faceplant.
What the hell — I stand by every word. Open thread!
Baud
I would say the odds are that Carville is correct, but the odds are certainly less than 100%.
Human instinct sucks at assessing probabilities and risk.
VFX Lurker
Thank you for posting this, Betty. ❤❤❤
Jeffro
Larry Sabato has trumpov winning Florida, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. Which would still be Biden 321 EVs, trumpov 217. BUT STILL.
Larry don’t know everything. Prove him wrong, Florida and Texas!!
Bill Arnold
(Dark money adverts.)
bnatebuckeye
Yeah sorry, I won’t believe it till January 21st when 45’s rolled in a barrel out of the Oval and the Biden Transition Team begins fumigation
AnotherBruce
Ignore Trump and just keep counting is the mantra.
Cacti
Trump’s win in 2016 required a perfect storm of factors that don’t look (to my biased eye) like they’re being replicated.
Two major differences are that there hasn’t been a quarter century long demonization campaign against Biden by the right wing. The second is that Wilmer hasn’t been encouraging his followers to kamikaze charge the Dem candidate again.
Dorothy A. Winsor
I hope you’re right, Betty. I want to stop feeling like I’m on the edge of disaster all the time.
Cheryl Rofer
I am not paying detailed attention, but the polling wizards are saying that if a few states break for Biden – I think Florida is one of them – it’s all over. And some of those states are expected to finish counting early.
My logical sense is that it’s going to be a landslide for Biden. My memories from 2016 say “Not so fast.”
I will not be watching the NYT dials.
debbie
@Bill Arnold:
Never trust anyone with eyebrows askew.
Bill Arnold
“President Trump RIFLE RAFFLE” !!!
germy
Dorothy A. Winsor
OMG. Thank god. (ETA: Me and Germy: We think alike!)
piratedan
sitting here not only hoping for a national repudiation of Trump, I want it to be seen as so obvious that the national media, which by and large is threaded with political courtiers taking cover from people who actually report and find out things, are going to be shown that this is not in fact a “horse-race” that this is in fact a systemic rejection of racism and fascism in our country.
I want to see races that were considered somewhat safe for the GOP turned into mind-blowing returns, where people like Graham, Sullivan, Cornym and McConnell are shown the door. Once shown the door, not to be allowed access to the media ever again because they’re an anathema to intelligent political discussion. If they’re not guilty of crimes, just go the fuck away.
I want to see a sixty vote majority in the House, 55+ in the Senate and I want those who committed crimes to stand trial.
hueyplong
@Cacti: Exactly.
And there is the Been There Done That about Trump.
I’m all in on a good night tomorrow. There’s plenty of time to be miserable later if that’s wrong.
Bill Arnold
And in the spirit of the thread, the headwinds Trump is facing:
germy
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Jeffro
@Bill Arnold: it’s only good for shooting $130,000 checks to porn stars
mali muso
@piratedan: Come sit by me! (6 feet apart of course)
piratedan
@germy: twas a bullshit suit because its either all or nothing and they only wanted Dem heavy precincts votes thrown out. Too fucking egregiously crafted even for the wart on the bench who is an enthusiastic team red kinda guy.
Scout211
@germy:
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Oh my, thank you for posting that. I had no idea I was so worried about those 130,000 votes. But the relief I feel is huge.
Bill Arnold
And lighter, for those who recall the Cheese Man’s recent failure,
Immanentize
Saying it again:. The polling errors can end up going in Biden’s favor this year.
Immanentize
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Hamen is just about the most right wing Federal District Court judge in Texas these days. The screw turns.
Mary G
I continue to be optimistic:
debbie
I didn’t know the GOP was also going after NV, but they lost there too. Huzzah!
cain
The mother fuckers have lost. Fuck these people!
ETA: YESSSSSSS!!!! Onward!
SiubhanDuinne
JFC, but Andrea Mitchell looks terrible! As in, if I ever gave her a thought, I’d be really worried about her health. She’s always been painfully thin, but now she is simply skeletal.
Have never much cared for her, but I wouldn’t wish those pain-infused eyes on anyone. Yikes.
Barbara
@germy: It irks me no end when judges make what are basically statements of their political views from the bench. It’s interesting that he based his ruling on standing.
Ken
That would be nice – not the part about keeping them away from the polls, that’s just a side benefit. The part about cresting. But it’s not going to do that, nor (despite what MAGAs think) will the media stop talking about the pandemic on November 4.
Ken
@Barbara: Apparently the only theory of injury the GOP could come up with was that, if the drive-through voting was allowed, the ballots would be counted. As one attorney (quoted by Klasfeld) said, “That’s not an injury. That’s an election.”
hueyplong
@Barbara: That little aside was like Tom Hagen saying “Can’t do it, Sally,” when Tessio asked him whether he could give him a break when the guys were about to take him out and whack him late in the going in Godfather I.
Here’s to more RWNJ judges telling Trump, “Hey, I’d love to, but this is a bridge too far.”
cain
@cain:
Well these assholes are now appealing to the 5th circuit court now – I think they plan on taking it all the way to the Supreme Court.
negative 1
@Jeffro: That’s probably right, though, or at least 3 of those 4. Texas is a real reach, and I’m glad it’s been competitive but ultimately ‘within the margin of error’ that I’ve seen has still basically been R+1. Iowa hasn’t polled well of late. I’ve been to Ohio, and have seen who lives there.
RedDirtGirl
I recently found an old clipping from years ago of a photo of James Carville that looks like it was taken from the television. He has a big round bald head, but the angle of the photo created such distortion that he looked like the guy that gave James the magic seeds in James and the Giant Peach. I wish I had it handy to share.
CCL
I am very nervous. As an Election official, I have to be at the polls at 5:00 am and there throughout the day until polls close. We are only able to go home and collapse once all the cast ballots are tabulated and safely under lock and key. Long day, lots of social exposure – even though everyone is doing a stellar job to be prepared, I am still nervous as hell.
cain
@negative 1:
I’m not so sure – but best of all, Republicans are forced to spend money there – instead of other races. So even if we lose – we can drain their coffers.
Betty Cracker
@SiubhanDuinne: Had the same thought.
SiubhanDuinne
@germy:
Wow! This is great news — thanks for posting it.
germy
@RedDirtGirl:
I’ve always found him very odd looking.
Brachiator
I am expectant, but relaxed. I am in a version of “no bullshit mode.” When I worked customer support at a tax office, during the last two weeks before April 15, calls from tax preparers came hot and heavy. We were always polite, but kept chit chat to a minimum. At some point it might become, “here’s your answer or, if think the answer is wrong (and it’s not) here’s an override.” And no getting into arguments about tax theory or interpretation.
I don’t care about polls or predictions. I don’t engage in discussions about how people might vote. I certainly do not try to change anyone’s mind about their choices. I voted early. I hope that people come out to vote tomorrow and that last minute attempts at voter suppression get pushed aside. I do not give a shit about any pundit’s opinion about anything. I have stopped reading about which states or counties might be most crucial. I ignore Trump’s increasingly unhinged ravings.
I do feel that in some way, democracy itself is on the line. And in a time of plague. What a year. I’m waiting to see what happens.
Betty Cracker
@CCL: Bless you for doing that work. Hope it all goes smoothly and safely.
Benw
Not politics related: Tom Morello’s new EP, Comandante, is fantastic. Highly recommended
Kay
From lean Republican to toss up based on huge turnout
Kent
It’s a cop out. He sees the writing on the wall but doesn’t want to betray his conservative bona fides for the next promotion when the next GOP president gets elected. It’s the judicial equivalent of abstaining from a controversial vote in Congress.
Either way, it’s a win.
Betty Cracker
@germy: I’ve always thought he looks like an angry fetus and generally find him obnoxious, but he knows politics.
negative 1
@cain: Yes, don’t get me wrong — the fact that they are competitive, and in the case of Texas *staying* competitive through a couple of cycles, is awesome.
One thing I think doesn’t get enough attention is that in these blood red R+infinity states, it’s difficult to even find candidates to run as their is no name recognition and no real Democratic infrastructure. So for Dems, even being able to run a competitive campaign has advantages for the future. Not having to call it a complete throwaway is invaluable. So, like, D’s may lose Texas this cycle, but the experience of having known Democratic politicians with positive feelings in voters’ minds this cycle is truly awesome.
JR
@Baud: I don’t like forecasts as a rule — they’re untestable — but the brand name forecasts have Biden at 90-96% (538 on low end, Economist on high). On the state and national polling, we are pretty much where we stood before Election Day in 2008.
Splitting Image
The reason everybody is stressed is that it’s like a game of Russian roulette. The stakes are so high that even when you know only one chamber has a bullet in it, it is still very scary to pull the trigger.
Trump’s chances of winning are about half of what shooting yourself in a game of Roussian roulette would be, but it’s still pretty damn frightening to think that it might happen.
I still say that the best thing Biden has going for him is that all of the people who actually orchestrated Trump’s win in 2016 have been replaced by Trump’s own hires. The damage this has done to Trump’s chances is sometimes underestimated.
Lapassionara
I was not optimistic about HRC’s chances in 2016, in spite of what the polls said. First, Trump appealed to the KKK types who, as I understand it, were not regular voters. He would get them in droves. Second, I kept seeing interviews with union guys in rust belt states saying that they were voting for Trump, even though their union backed Hillary. Third, the vast right wing conspiracy had spent decades demonizing HRC, so that when the email business got so much press, people believed that she had really done something horrible. Fourth, there was a robust third party option on the ballot that seemed to be a way for some to signal their dislike of both candidates. Fifth, there were people who voted for Trump who really thought he would “pivot” and start acting presidential, that the weight of the office would render him sufficient for the task.
Most of these factors are not present in this race, with the exception of the appeal to the KKK types. And Trump has shown over and over that he has no regard for the actual responsibilities of the office. I’m not confident of a Biden victory, but this election is very different than the one in 2016.
negative 1
@Barbara: Yes, I am with you on this. No one asked who you are voting for a$$hole just that you do your job with a minimum of competence. And by the way, this is the RIGHT decision, so it’s not like he should be too congratulated for arriving at it. It’s like saying I did wonderfully by not falling on my face while walking today.
Laura Too
Not sure what this is about. https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/?fbclid=IwAR17VA6K375f91PQ8VWUoHKl_yeeP8-OZeRxTVQf21SZTVx8OaPwsALQzFc&refresh=true
I’ve been working the early ballot drop off and as a receiver for ballots. Haven’t heard of any shady stuff until this.
MattF
I expect the Trumpies to go back to their previous careers making spam phone calls, trying to steal money from people with dementia. So, if you get a call from ‘Amazon’ saying all you have to do to fix your acccount is send a $700 gift card to a certain person, don’t.
As for me, I’m eating a lot of chocolate.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Betty Cracker:
I have an entire folder with quotes from you that I trot out in other places as needed. This one is just another in a long line of disturbingly brilliant takes.
CCL
@Betty Cracker: Thanks, Betty. I have been doing it for years, but have never been so worried.
dmsilev
@germy: “I may be a partisan hack, but even I have my limits”
Bill Arnold
@Ken:
Not cresting, yes, but well-timed for maximal electoral damage to Trump and the Rs. Who could have imagined that the start of the Northern-state indoor season(s) (and school season), combined with making opposition to masks and lockdowns and hell any precautions against SARS-CoV-2 at all, a part of the unofficial Republican Party platform, would result in a massive wave of infections in Northern battleground states (and other Republican states) in October/November?
RedDirtGirl
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: Damn, would you share? I always think about doing that and never have!
Kent
I gotta say this feels a lot different from 2016. A bunch of my family is MAGA and I live in a purple area. From what I remember there was much more of a celebratory air on the GOP side along with gleeful hatred of Hillary that inspired them. Yes there was racism and all that. But it was a little more optimistic and a lot of people bought the bullshit of running the country like a business and draining the swamp. Most of my MAGA extended family has gone completely radio silent on Facebook this election and are back to posting rural farm memes, recipes, and trite patriotic bullshit about prayer in schools and that sort of shit. In 2016 it was endless MAGA and selfies at Trump events.
Today it’s more of a desperate revanchist feral hatred for the remaining faithful. The Trumpers aren’t as cheerful. Nothing they throw at Biden seems to stick and even they don’t believe their own Hunter Biden bullshit. When I see them here around town they seem almost defiantly desperate.
I’m as nervous and reluctant to predict anything as any of you. No one wants to jinx this. But this really doesn’t feel like a repeat of 2016.
SiubhanDuinne
@Betty Cracker:
As always, perfection. Sheer perfuckingfection.
Bill Arnold
@cain:
Not counting votes is coup behavior. In a harsher country, that might eventually mean the death penalty.,
JPL
This is good
The RNC’s communications director from 2017 – 2019 under Ronna McDaniel voted for Joe Biden.
Ruckus
@Laura Too:
Sounds to me like more trump bullshit. Reading the link, all I got was normal vote process with the exception of the volume, which is the new normal. Sounds like the feds are throwing out their chests but the state knows it’s just bullshit and there are laws against any law enforcement in the polls or the processing rooms.
LuciaMia
Going back to the two Obama election nights. I remember the 2012 one ending early, almost effortlessly, right around the 10 pm mark. Tomorrow night, if only, if only….
jackmac
Here in Illinois the state board of elections reports nearly 3.6 million early voters as of Monday morning, approaching half of the state’s total of registered voters. We’re bluer than blue here so the outcome is not in question. Still it seems like a great many of us are determined to go out of their way to give Trump a monumental ass-whupping.
JPL
@Bill Arnold: The judge said that if his ruling is over turned, he would deny it on other grounds.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Laura Too:
From the article
This is Barr sticking a pacifier in Trump’s mouth.
Eunicecycle
Ok when Carville says 10pm does he mean Eastern time or Central time?? I think he’s in Louisiana. I know I’m being too pedantic because I’m so nervous.
debbie
SNL is running a special tonight at 10 p.m., allegedly a compilation of fan favorites of election sketches. Maybe it will help some laugh a bit before nodding off.
WaterGirl
@Cheryl Rofer:
Oh my god, just reading that brought me back to 2016 and made me anxious. I will be (not) watching the dials with you.
WaterGirl
@germy: What does that mean?
Quaker in a Basement
I will be satisfied with the level of Trump humiliation if on Wednesday mornng people are saying: “I can’t believe Trump lost (state he won by double digits in 2016) and (another state he won by double digits in 2016).”
GregMulka
Have sinus infection. Have antibiotics. Received a steroid shot. Hoping that will have me functional enough to ask for identification and is this your address? Don’t want to have to flake the first time I’ve tried to be a poll worker.
Laura Too
@Ruckus: Thank you! I trust our SOS and AG but this kind of sent me off my perch a bit.
Brachiator
@Kent:
Might be better. Could be worse. It is somewhat unsettling that a chunk of the electorate see exactly what Trump is, and still say, “I want more of that!”
But there is much, much less “Democrats and Republicans, no difference.” And in the last few weeks when I listened to more political podcasts, I heard a few more conservatives acknowledge that Trump mishandled the pandemic and was, himself, a threat to public safety. This was a bridge too far.
Many people seem to recognize that the choices are distinct and pretty clear. It’s just a question of what people decide. And by what margin.
Laura Too
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Thanks! I appreciate you all talking me off the ledge. I have had such an amazing experience working the polls and receiving the ballots. I see so much integrity in everyone I’ve worked with. We are all concerned about the pandemic but we know how important this is. I work tomorrow thank dog, I don’t know what I would do with myself if I were home.
Anoniminous
YouGov released two polls today that were conducted over the week. Averaged together they have Biden up 9. In Georgia!
Either YouGov has gone bananas-batty or this thing is turning into a Blue Tsunami.
CaseyL
@GregMulka: Practice first, at home, if you can; just to get the sentences in your memory. Particularly if you’re gonna be foggy on medications.
As someone who has a low-grade terror of putting myself before strangers, whether in person or phone-banking, I can say that repetition is incredibly helpful. It gives you a mental scaffold, so to speak. (Not the hanging kind; the supportive kind.)
Best of luck, and thank you for your service!
japa21
@jackmac: When I get to the polls tomorrow at 5:00 we will get a sheet showing all the early voters, whether by mail or in person. That will give me a good idea as to how busy we will be. On a high turnout election we may hit 65% total, so if 50% voted early, the day will be a breeze.
prostratedragon
My little seconds-counting program has been tuned to just before midnight tomorrow night all along, because I figure that no matter what we’ll have a good idea by then.
Only about 11390 seconds to go. (Fixed typo. And now there are 30 or so fewer seconds.)
Anoniminous
@Immanentize:
What with all the youngs voting, black turnout at 2008 levels or better, and Trump losing a swathe of the GOP coalition, i.e., suburban white women, the odds are polling is underestimating Democratic vote this time ’round.
dmsilev
@Anoniminous: I’d love love love to believe that, but I’m afraid I can’t really. Pretty much all of the other last-minute polls have come down to “the race is stable. Yes, still.”. I’m guessing outlier, which is not unreasonable given how many polls have been done over the last few weeks. On the other side, there was that strong Trump poll in Iowa a few days ago.
NotMax
Nice to see all indicators pointing to New Hampshire breaking for Biden.
Still miffed at their sticking out as New England’s sore thumb in ’00.
cain
I just want to say taht I thnk Oregon deserves more than 7 electoral votes based on its population.. who in the management do I have to talk to?
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: I hadn’t seen her in a long time, until I clicked the link above.
My immediate reaction was the same as yours. She loves terribly unhealthy. I didn’t notice the thinness, as she always has been. But she has the huge darkness around her eyes that either seems to come from serious illness or drug addiction. She does not look well.
edit: her voice still seems strong. I wonder if it could be stress and sleepless nights?
Nicole
And for some lightness, check out George Takei’s Twitter feed, where you can find your Conservative Fear-Mongering Slogan:
https://twitter.com/GeorgeTakei/status/1323354537957220353
If Joe Biden wins, Netflix will wreck the American Dream!
Barbara
@japa21: 63% of registered voters in my county in NoVa have already voted.
Jeffro
@negative 1: WaPo is reporting that Quinnipac has Biden over trumpov in Ohio(!) and Florida.
It’s just gonna be weird, folks…but GOOD-weird! =)
Anoniminous
@dmsilev:
You’ll note I’m not overly confident of their accuracy either!
In their defense, Georgia added a million voters since 2016 mostly young and mostly minority. Not exactly Trump’s demographics.
WaterGirl
@cain: And my anxiety level is back up again.
NotMax
@WaterGirl
She’s long managed to project the look of Bystander #1 in a Tim Burton movie.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Laura Too: I assume many of these people you are working with are conservatives and as you said they working with you all for a good election? Just keep that in mind the entire right isn’t a pack of slobbering zombies willing to sacrifice themselves for the Orange One.
Roger Moore
@Kay:
The Democrats winning one house of the TX legislature in time for the 2020 redistricting would be a big Biden deal. Non-gerrymandered districts would completely change the game there.
Bill Arnold
@JPL:
Ah, very good. Thanks. Does anybody have text of the ruling? (We need to make it clear to judges that there will be consequences for anti-democracy rulings. )
burnspbesq
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
If Republican candidates don’t have standing, it’s hard to imagine who would.
But the Fifth Circuit is open for business, so I’m not counting any chickens.
Calouste
@dmsilev:
I think that Iowa poll was bad. The data looked an outlier at best, and besides the Presidential vote, it also forecasted all four Iowa house districts, from just 800 respondents. 200 respondents (the average per district) is too low to produce an acceptable result with decent error margins, it should be about 450.
dmsilev
@Nicole: I get “Homosexuals will kill our savior, Donald J. Trump.”
As Mr. Sulu might say, “oh my.”
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Larry Freakin’ Sabato is predicting Biden takes Georgia and North Carolina
@germy: Mary Matalin used to call him Serpenthead.
Danielx
Aaaaaa-men, Sister Betty! Can I get a witness! Lots of them!
WhatsMyNym
@Barbara:
67.6% have voted in Washington state as of Saturday.
CaseyL
@SiubhanDuinne:
@WaterGirl:
If she’s having stressful days and sleepless nights: GOOD! She and her MSM colleagues helped to get us where we are.
But, you know, she’s also just plain old. She was an up and coming reporter back in the 1970s; very ambitious even then.
(Linda Ellerbee’s book, “And So It Goes,” has a wonderful anecdote about Mitchell. Ellerbee, noting her intensity of drive and energy, asked Mitchell what she did to relax. Per Ellerbee, Mitchell snapped, “Drink coffee.”)
dmsilev
@Roger Moore: Yep. Remember Tom DeLay engineering a mid-cycle redistricting of Texas on the grounds of “I want more seats”? We could undo that.
Oklahomo
@Bill Arnold: That should come with a seizure warning.
Barbara
@Anoniminous: There have been a couple of other polls with similar “outlier” results in Georgia, but most show a close race barely shifting toward Biden over time. That makes me think that changing demographics and likely voter screens could be masking the depth of change. It will be interesting, I hope in a good way.
MJS
I recall news reports the weekend before the 1980 election that said Jimmy Carter had been informed that the polls showed Reagan with an insurmountable lead. I believe Trump is hearing a similar message, which is why he’s even more batshit insane than usual at his rallies and why his minions are throwing anything and everything at the courts.
Jeffro
I’ll never be able to not see that, ever.
Fortunately, he’ll only be on my TV for 3, maybe 4 more election cycles. But still…
WaterGirl
@NotMax: Have never seen one!
Jeffro
They should feel that way. What’d they get for all the love they showed their orange emperor? They got to watch rich folks get tax cuts and Barrett get a SCOTUS seat from the comfort of their quarantine living room.
Ask them where this year’s ‘CARAVAN!!!’ is, if you really want to drive them nuts. Or how that Clinton Foundation prosecution is going. ;)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@MJS: They say his staff feeds him favorable polls, but he spends all day watching TV and scrolling through twitter. He knows.
GeriUpNorth
I want to see Texas turn blue this year. I know it’s a real longshot, but the Republican meltdown would be epic.
Barbara
@JPL: If the plaintiffs lack standing the judge is supposed to stop and not get to the merits, because federal courts are not authorized to issue advisory rulings. It does sound that he was skeptical of their claims, I mean, he should be given that the Texas Supreme Court rejected them in toto.
Mary G
The shootings in Vienna are horrific:
Stay safe, otmar!
NotMax
10 words anticipating hearing from courtrooms come Wednesday.
“Losing is not prima facie evidence of harm. Next case.”
Laura Too
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Nope. We aren’t supposed to talk politics…but let’s just say that we all skew to the left of center. When you are working 8+ hours with folks stuff slips out. And we had lots of time when there weren’t people around. It is Minneapolis, they had a hell of a time finding parity for Dem volunteers.
Laura Too
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Nope. We aren’t supposed to talk politics…but let’s just say that we all skew to the left of center. When you are working 8+ hours with folks stuff slips out. And we had lots of time when there weren’t people around. It is Minneapolis, they had a hell of a time finding parity for Dem volunteers.
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Jeffro
@Anoniminous: If Biden gets GA, TX, OH, and IA what’s that, 390 EVs or something? Hold on a sec…
…413. 413 to 125. LOLOL
The next “swing” state after those four is…Montana.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Nicole: Illegal Aliens will Control Christopher Columbus!
Nicole
@dmsilev: Ha! That’s hilarious.
Mary G
@WaterGirl: Site is running slow for me again.
Jeffro
@cain: I was kind of shocked to see that NC and GA each have more EVs than Virginia does.
I…I thought we were…bigger than that (sob)
Anoniminous
@Barbara:
There’s a need for caution but this is exactly the kind of thing that happens in wave elections.
Another Scott
@dmsilev:
(via LOLGOP)
Cheers,
Scott.
HumboldtBlue
British historian Dan Brown has some words for those who criticize him for focusing his considerable energies on the US election.
Facebones
Carville is wrong.
it’ll be over at 11 EST the minute the west coast polls close.
Comrade Colette
@Kent:
I’m looking forward to the Futuretimes when prayer in (public) schools will correctly and routinely be dismissed as the trite unpatriotic bullshit it is.
mad citizen
They are having a little prediction contest over at LGM (my first post there–way too many people there!). Using my 270 to win map, and my hope that trump ends up at 39% (Biden at 60–are there third parties getting votes this time? There always seem to be a libertarian but for the life of me has anyone heard anything about them this year?); brings me to:
Biden: 92.4 million votes; 412 EVs
Trump: 60.0 million votes, 126 EVs
53 D (including the I) Senators; 47 R Senator
Let the Repudiation of the shitstain, and of 2020, continue!
HumboldtBlue
@Facebones:
Yup, as soon as they call Cali, Oregon, and Washington the game is over.
Another Scott
@Mary G: Was for me as well, until just now. (Chrome + uBlock Origin /Win10). I guess Watergirl just turned off the problematic plugins.
Cheers,
Scott.
HumboldtBlue
@Mary G:
Me too, on my desktop.
Anoniminous
@Jeffro:
And Indiana – Obama took it in 2008! – for 427!
IT COULD HAPPEN!!!!
OK, that’s not very likely but it’s better than the WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! when Biden/Harris have been polling above 50% – something Clinton never did – for weeks now.
HumboldtBlue
Comrade Colette
@GregMulka: Oh no, what bad timing! I hope you feel better tomorrow. If you’re willing to say, where (broadly) are you going to be working? No ID needed to vote here in California, so I’m just curious.
Comrade Colette
@Nicole: The Transgenders will ban designer dogs!
(Actually, that sounds like a good thing.)
trnc
Which race are we talking about here for Plouffe?
Omnes Omnibus
@Kent: Judges are not supposed to rule on the merits of a case that is not justiciable. It is not a cop out.
indycat32
@Nicole: Left wing fascists will marry the McRib.
Matt McIrvin
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes, IANAL but I thought judges had a strong preference to avoid ruling on the merits of any case if there existed a procedural argument that would determine the decision. This is how they avoid simply being unelected rulers.
Jeffro
@Anoniminous: totally agree. People have to chill a bit. This is really good stuff going on!
Barbara
@Matt McIrvin: It is not just a preference. A ruling for a party with no standing has no legal effect on the merits. There is no case, nothing to decide.
trnc
I saw the ruling on TPM and was getting ready to post, “See, here’s another republican judge fairly applying the law even thought it’s not good for his party,” but then saw that comment.
Oh, well, I guess he should get a cookie for handing down a ruling that made him sad.
Dan B
@jackmac: In WA state the vote is expected to be 90% or close to that number. When you make voting 100% mail, with polling places who don’t receive their ballot, and free postage, you get high turnout.
Kent
Why are you shocked?
What’s the biggest metro area in Virginia? Richmond at about 1.2 million? Fairfax County at about 1.1 million? Or the whole Virginia Beach area at about 1.7 million?
Compare that to Atlanta with a metro population of over 6 million. Or Charlotte with a metro population of 2.6 million.
trnc
@CCL: I hope you get some rest and that tomorrow is relatively unexciting. Stay safe.
trnc
@Benw: Cool, thanks. I still say it’s ok for him to put the logo back on his Marshall.
Dan B
@Jeffro: I saw Carville at a candidate event years ago. He was next to me talking with five folks. He glowered at me even though I was just listening. Probably used to the type of “friends” and friendly folks in DC.
I don’t recall thinking him odd looking. He looked like his photos.
Miss Bianca
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: I’ve been keeping a running TextEdit file of “Balloon Juice Wit and Wisdom” from commenters and front-pagers for months now. Sometimes I think, “Oooh, I gotta remember *this* argument for when RWNJs (Or LWNJs) start meeping about X issue,” and sometimes it’s just, “Damn, that’s funny.”
J R in WV
@WaterGirl:
She is 74 as of last month. So getting older, should think about retiring, but I know how hard it is to convince a reporter to give up their passion.
Mai Naem mobile
@LuciaMia: I am waiting for the stories of the Trumpov campaign cutting off credit cards and other expense account stuff of staffers at 10PM like Romney did. I remember reading that staffers couldn’t use their campaign credit cards for transportation to home that night. That’s cold.
LongHairedWeirdo
Absolutely not – we should *never* marvel at how much we agonized. They nominated a judge for a President who flat out said they expected that judge to help them win the election, by returning favorable rulings, and pushed the judge through in record time, with barely a speed bump over her refusing to recuse in any case involving the Presidential election. They were shutting down the postal service, challenging voting rules at every turn, filed lawsuits that had no lawful basis that nevertheless received serious consideration (and in some cases, received decisions in their favor). We knew there were armed assholes ready, willing, and able, to make trouble, up to and including kidnapping and likely executing a Democratic governor.
We should always remember that the Republicans know, deep down, it doesn’t matter how many horrible, horrible news stories crop up, how many crimes are committed (so long as they, themselves, don’t face criminal charges), nor how much else damage is done; the ONLY thing that matters to them is having more votes at the time they’re able to force the votes to stop being tabulated. As long as they slot the win, THEY JUST DON’T CARE.
We may, someday, feel that we worried too much about the *polls*, I’ll grant you. But we’d have to be complete morons to marvel at how we agonized about the situation.
Captain C
@Nicole: Bisexuals will kill Christopher Columbus
Mike in NC
@J R in WV: Mrs. Greenspan really needs the money!
Morzer
We are going to win and win bigly. Trump will scream and kick and whine all the way to January 20th and beyond. That doesn’t matter and won’t matter. We are going to win and win bigly.
Uncle Cosmo
Almost as much as it’s irked me for months seeing one Jackal after another whine, Biden wasn’t my first or second or … nth choice, but…
(Just FTR.)
Uncle Cosmo
@Facebones: @HumboldtBlue: Um, no, Carville is correct. No one with a reasonably bright eighth-grader’s understanding of US politics seriously believes the Left Coast is in play. Those 74 EVs are baked in. At 10 PM the commentators will add them to results from the rest of the country, and we will know.