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You are here: Home / Politics / Domestic Politics / Election Day Eve Afternoon Open Thread

Election Day Eve Afternoon Open Thread

by Betty Cracker|  November 2, 20203:18 pm| 154 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Open Threads, Politics

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You’re nervous, I’m nervous, most people are nervous. I was on a business call earlier with a fellow American and a few people from other countries, and everyone on the call was nervous.

James Carville and David Plouffe aren’t nervous though:

Carville says we’ll know the outcome by 10 o’clock tomorrow evening. Could they be wrong? Sure, but they orchestrated two victorious Democratic presidential campaigns against Republican incumbents, so they probably know what they’re talking about. In stark contrast, I do not have any political insights aside from being a partisan observer who is often wrong. This was my prediction about two weeks ago:

I think many of us are still so traumatized by 2016 that, although we know Trump really is a moron who’s running the worst fucking campaign any of us have ever seen in our lifetimes, we dare not draw the obvious conclusions.

I mean, it’s understandable. I was certainly way overconfident, and it haunts me. But a whole flock of black swans had to land just so to drag Trump’s stupid orange ass over the finish line last time, and now he’s not only got a hideous record as an incumbent to explain, he steps on rake after rake after rake as a candidate.

There’s the super-spreader events, which Trump might possibly be the only person on the planet holding right now because it’s so fucking dumb. There’s the “army” that’s being set up to harass each other and the broke-ass fraudster campaign staff and advisors. There’s the rising wave of infections that may crest at the exact time Trump needs his idiot followers to show up in person to vote.

I think he’s going to lose in humiliating fashion. I think the race will be called reasonably early on election night. And I think with that perspective, we’ll marvel at how much we agonized these past few months. I am not counting chickens! But that’s my sense of it now. He’s a fucking idiot heading for a gigantic faceplant.

What the hell — I stand by every word. Open thread!

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Reader Interactions

154Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    November 2, 2020 at 3:20 pm

    I would say the odds are that Carville is correct, but the odds are certainly less than 100%.

    Human instinct sucks at assessing probabilities and risk.

  2. 2.

    VFX Lurker

    November 2, 2020 at 3:21 pm

    Thank you for posting this, Betty. ❤❤❤

  3. 3.

    Jeffro

    November 2, 2020 at 3:24 pm

    Larry Sabato has trumpov winning Florida, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. Which would still be Biden 321 EVs, trumpov 217. BUT STILL.

    Larry don’t know everything. Prove him wrong, Florida and Texas!!

  4. 4.

    Bill Arnold

    November 2, 2020 at 3:24 pm

    (Dark money adverts.)

    Would love to see whatever market research there was suggesting the half pony for Kansas, full pony for Iowa, hair down for Maine https://t.co/7WNJ4ZNbaQ— Anne Helen Petersen (@annehelen) November 1, 2020

  5. 5.

    bnatebuckeye

    November 2, 2020 at 3:24 pm

    Yeah sorry, I won’t believe it till January 21st when 45’s rolled in a barrel out of the Oval and the Biden Transition Team begins fumigation

  6. 6.

    AnotherBruce

    November 2, 2020 at 3:25 pm

    Ignore Trump and just keep counting is the mantra.

  7. 7.

    Cacti

    November 2, 2020 at 3:25 pm

    Trump’s win in 2016 required a perfect storm of factors that don’t look (to my biased eye) like they’re being replicated.

    Two major differences are that there hasn’t been a quarter century long demonization campaign against Biden by the right wing. The second is that Wilmer hasn’t been encouraging his followers to kamikaze charge the Dem candidate again.

  8. 8.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    November 2, 2020 at 3:26 pm

    I hope you’re right, Betty. I want to stop feeling like I’m on the edge of disaster all the time.

  9. 9.

    Cheryl Rofer

    November 2, 2020 at 3:27 pm

    I am not paying detailed attention, but the polling wizards are saying that if a few states break for Biden – I think Florida is one of them – it’s all over. And some of those states are expected to finish counting early.

    My logical sense is that it’s going to be a landslide for Biden. My memories from 2016 say “Not so fast.”

    I will not be watching the NYT dials.

  10. 10.

    debbie

    November 2, 2020 at 3:27 pm

    @Bill Arnold:

    Never trust anyone with eyebrows askew.

  11. 11.

    Bill Arnold

    November 2, 2020 at 3:27 pm

    “President Trump RIFLE RAFFLE” !!!

    MY EYES https://t.co/6wvmUxKvxd pic.twitter.com/JeovfZiAUY— zedster (@z3dster) October 30, 2020

  12. 12.

    germy

    November 2, 2020 at 3:28 pm

    BREAKING: Judge Hanen holds the plaintiffs don't have standing in Texas drive-thru voting case.

    GOP challengers lose.

    — Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) November 2, 2020

  13. 13.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    November 2, 2020 at 3:28 pm

    OMG. Thank god.  (ETA: Me and Germy: We think alike!)

    BREAKING: Judge Hanen holds the plaintiffs don’t have standing in Texas drive-thru voting case.GOP challengers lose.— Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) November 2, 2020

  14. 14.

    piratedan

    November 2, 2020 at 3:28 pm

    sitting here not only hoping for a national repudiation of Trump, I want it to be seen as so obvious that the national media, which by and large is threaded with political courtiers taking cover from people who actually report and find out things, are going to be shown that this is not in fact a “horse-race” that this is in fact a systemic rejection of racism and fascism in our country.

    I want to see races that were considered somewhat safe for the GOP turned into mind-blowing returns, where people like Graham, Sullivan, Cornym and McConnell are shown the door. Once shown the door, not to be allowed access to the media ever again because they’re an anathema to intelligent political discussion. If they’re not guilty of crimes, just go the fuck away.

    I want to see a sixty vote majority in the House, 55+ in the Senate and I want those who committed crimes to stand trial.

  15. 15.

    hueyplong

    November 2, 2020 at 3:29 pm

    @Cacti: Exactly.

    And there is the Been There Done That about Trump.

    I’m all in on a good night tomorrow.  There’s plenty of time to be miserable later if that’s wrong.

  16. 16.

    Bill Arnold

    November 2, 2020 at 3:30 pm

    And in the spirit of the thread, the headwinds Trump is facing:

    and you may find yourself failing to contain a pandemic
    and you may find yourself destroying the economy
    and you may find yourself traveling to defend traditionally red states
    and you may say to yourself,https://t.co/vbuE9k0UGE
    — Rob Flaherty (@Rob_Flaherty) November 2, 2020

  17. 17.

    germy

    November 2, 2020 at 3:31 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: 

    Judge Hanen: "I'm not happy with that finding. But the way I look at it, the law requires it."

    — Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) November 2, 2020

  18. 18.

    Jeffro

    November 2, 2020 at 3:31 pm

    @Bill Arnold: it’s only good for shooting $130,000 checks to porn stars

  19. 19.

    mali muso

    November 2, 2020 at 3:31 pm

    @piratedan: Come sit by me! (6 feet apart of course)

  20. 20.

    piratedan

    November 2, 2020 at 3:31 pm

    @germy: twas a bullshit suit because its either all or nothing and they only wanted Dem heavy precincts votes thrown out.  Too fucking egregiously crafted even for the wart on the bench who is an enthusiastic team red kinda guy.

  21. 21.

    Scout211

    November 2, 2020 at 3:32 pm

     

    @germy:

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    Oh my, thank you for posting that. I had no idea I was so worried about those 130,000 votes. But the relief I feel is huge.

  22. 22.

    Bill Arnold

    November 2, 2020 at 3:32 pm

    And lighter, for those who recall the Cheese Man’s recent failure,

    HE DID IT. THE DUDE MANAGED TO PULL IT OFF THIS TIME. IM SO HAPPY FOR YOU CHEESE MAN pic.twitter.com/OImQ3FigXO— Shoto (@shxtou) November 1, 2020

  23. 23.

    Immanentize

    November 2, 2020 at 3:33 pm

    Saying it again:. The polling errors can end up going in Biden’s favor this year.

  24. 24.

    Immanentize

    November 2, 2020 at 3:34 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: Hamen is just about the most right wing Federal District Court judge in Texas these days.  The screw turns.

  25. 25.

    Mary G

    November 2, 2020 at 3:37 pm

    I continue to be optimistic:

    Hello from the Bucks County Courthouse! These PA voters have been in line here on a frigid morning to correct issues w/ their absentee ballots. They had been notified to come in and fix. Voters tell us they’re willing to wait as long as it takes to make sure their vote counts. pic.twitter.com/64NBk1LlZU— Caitlin Huey-Burns (@CHueyBurns) November 2, 2020

  26. 26.

    debbie

    November 2, 2020 at 3:39 pm

    I didn’t know the GOP was also going after NV, but they lost there too. Huzzah!

  27. 27.

    cain

    November 2, 2020 at 3:40 pm

    ? Just now: U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen, a W. Bush appointee, has ruled Republicans lack standing to challenge 127k drive-thru votes cast in Harris County (#Houston).— Zach Despart?️ (@zachdespart) November 2, 2020

    The mother fuckers have lost. Fuck these people!

    ETA: YESSSSSSS!!!! Onward!

  28. 28.

    SiubhanDuinne

    November 2, 2020 at 3:40 pm

    JFC, but Andrea Mitchell looks terrible! As in, if I ever gave her a thought, I’d be really worried about her health. She’s always been painfully thin, but now she is simply skeletal.

    Have never much cared for her, but I wouldn’t wish those pain-infused eyes on anyone. Yikes.

  29. 29.

    Barbara

    November 2, 2020 at 3:40 pm

    @germy:  It irks me no end when judges make what are basically statements of their political views from the bench. It’s interesting that he based his ruling on standing.

  30. 30.

    Ken

    November 2, 2020 at 3:42 pm

    There’s the rising wave of infections that may crest at the exact time Trump needs his idiot followers to show up in person to vote.

    That would be nice – not the part about keeping them away from the polls, that’s just a side benefit. The part about cresting. But it’s not going to do that, nor (despite what MAGAs think) will the media stop talking about the pandemic on November 4.

  31. 31.

    Ken

    November 2, 2020 at 3:44 pm

    @Barbara: Apparently the only theory of injury the GOP could come up with was that, if the drive-through voting was allowed, the ballots would be counted. As one attorney (quoted by Klasfeld) said, “That’s not an injury. That’s an election.”

  32. 32.

    hueyplong

    November 2, 2020 at 3:44 pm

    @Barbara: That little aside was like Tom Hagen saying “Can’t do it, Sally,” when Tessio asked him whether he could give him a break when the guys were about to take him out and whack him late in the going in Godfather I.

    Here’s to more RWNJ judges telling Trump, “Hey, I’d love to, but this is a bridge too far.”

  33. 33.

    cain

    November 2, 2020 at 3:44 pm

    @cain:

    Well these assholes are now appealing to the 5th circuit court now – I think they plan on taking it all the way to the Supreme Court.

  34. 34.

    negative 1

    November 2, 2020 at 3:45 pm

    @Jeffro: That’s probably right, though, or at least 3 of those 4.  Texas is a real reach, and I’m glad it’s been competitive but ultimately ‘within the margin of error’ that I’ve seen has still basically been R+1. Iowa hasn’t polled well of late.  I’ve been to Ohio, and have seen who lives there.

  35. 35.

    RedDirtGirl

    November 2, 2020 at 3:45 pm

    I recently found an old clipping from years ago of a photo of James Carville that looks like it was taken from the television. He has a big round bald head, but the angle of the photo created such distortion that he looked like the guy that gave James the magic seeds in James and the Giant Peach. I wish I had it handy to share.

  36. 36.

    CCL

    November 2, 2020 at 3:45 pm

    I am very nervous.  As an Election official, I have to be at the polls at 5:00 am and there throughout the day until polls close.  We are only able to go home and collapse once all the cast ballots are tabulated and safely under lock and key. Long day, lots of social exposure – even though everyone is doing a stellar job to be prepared, I am still nervous as hell.

  37. 37.

    cain

    November 2, 2020 at 3:46 pm

    @negative 1:

    I’m not so sure – but best of all, Republicans are forced to spend money there – instead of other races. So even if we lose – we can drain their coffers.

  38. 38.

    Betty Cracker

    November 2, 2020 at 3:47 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne: Had the same thought.

  39. 39.

    SiubhanDuinne

    November 2, 2020 at 3:47 pm

    @germy:

    Wow! This is great news — thanks for posting it.

  40. 40.

    germy

    November 2, 2020 at 3:47 pm

    @RedDirtGirl:

    I’ve always found him very odd looking.

  41. 41.

    Brachiator

    November 2, 2020 at 3:48 pm

    You’re nervous, I’m nervous, most people are nervous. I was on a business call earlier with a fellow American and a few people from other countries, and everyone on the call was nervous.

    I am expectant, but relaxed. I am in a version of “no bullshit mode.” When I worked customer support at a tax office, during the last two weeks before April 15, calls from tax preparers came hot and heavy. We were always polite, but kept chit chat to a minimum. At some point it might become, “here’s your answer or, if think the answer is wrong (and it’s not) here’s an override.” And no getting into arguments about tax theory or interpretation.

    I don’t care about polls or predictions. I don’t engage in discussions about how people might vote. I certainly do not try to change anyone’s mind about their choices. I voted early. I hope that people come out to vote tomorrow and that last minute attempts at voter suppression get pushed aside. I do not give a shit about any pundit’s opinion about anything. I have stopped reading about which states or counties might be most crucial. I ignore Trump’s increasingly unhinged ravings.

    I do feel that in some way, democracy itself is on the line. And in a time of plague. What a year. I’m waiting to see what happens.

  42. 42.

    Betty Cracker

    November 2, 2020 at 3:48 pm

    @CCL: Bless you for doing that work. Hope it all goes smoothly and safely.

  43. 43.

    Benw

    November 2, 2020 at 3:49 pm

    Not politics related: Tom Morello’s new EP, Comandante, is fantastic. Highly recommended

  44. 44.

    Kay

    November 2, 2020 at 3:49 pm

    Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict
    ·34m
    New
    @CookPolitical
    : one day out, we now believe the race for the TX state house is a toss up, w/ potentially massive implications for 2021 redistricting & beyond.

    From lean Republican to toss up based on huge turnout

  45. 45.

    Kent

    November 2, 2020 at 3:50 pm

    @Barbara:@germy:  It irks me no end when judges make what are basically statements of their political views from the bench. It’s interesting that he based his ruling on standing.

    It’s a cop out.  He sees the writing on the wall but doesn’t want to betray his conservative bona fides for the next promotion when the next GOP president gets elected.  It’s the judicial equivalent of abstaining from a controversial vote in Congress.

    Either way, it’s a win.

  46. 46.

    Betty Cracker

    November 2, 2020 at 3:50 pm

    @germy: I’ve always thought he looks like an angry fetus and generally find him obnoxious, but he knows politics.

  47. 47.

    negative 1

    November 2, 2020 at 3:50 pm

    @cain: Yes, don’t get me wrong — the fact that they are competitive, and in the case of Texas *staying* competitive through a couple of cycles, is awesome.

    One thing I think doesn’t get enough attention is that in these blood red R+infinity states, it’s difficult to even find candidates to run as their is no name recognition and no real Democratic infrastructure.  So for Dems, even being able to run a competitive campaign has advantages for the future.  Not having to call it a complete throwaway is invaluable.  So, like, D’s may lose Texas this cycle, but the experience of having known Democratic politicians with positive feelings in voters’ minds this cycle is truly awesome.

  48. 48.

    JR

    November 2, 2020 at 3:50 pm

    @Baud: I don’t like forecasts as a rule — they’re untestable — but the brand name forecasts have Biden at 90-96% (538 on low end, Economist on high). On the state and national polling, we are pretty much where we stood before Election Day in 2008.

  49. 49.

    Splitting Image

    November 2, 2020 at 3:51 pm

    The reason everybody is stressed is that it’s like a game of Russian roulette. The stakes are so high that even when you know only one chamber has a bullet in it, it is still very scary to pull the trigger.

    Trump’s chances of winning are about half of what shooting yourself in a game of Roussian roulette would be, but it’s still pretty damn frightening to think that it might happen.

    I still say that the best thing Biden has going for him is that all of the people who actually orchestrated Trump’s win in 2016 have been replaced by Trump’s own hires. The damage this has done to Trump’s chances is sometimes underestimated.

  50. 50.

    Lapassionara

    November 2, 2020 at 3:52 pm

    I was not optimistic about HRC’s chances in 2016, in spite of what the polls said. First, Trump appealed to the KKK types who, as I understand it, were not regular voters. He would get them in droves. Second, I kept seeing interviews with union guys in rust belt states saying that they were voting for Trump, even though their union backed Hillary. Third, the vast right wing conspiracy had spent decades demonizing HRC, so that when the email business got so much press, people believed that she had really done something horrible. Fourth, there was a robust third party option on the ballot that seemed to be a way for some to signal their dislike of both candidates. Fifth, there were people who voted for Trump who really thought he would “pivot” and start acting presidential, that the weight of the office would render him sufficient for the task.

    Most of these factors are not present in this race, with the exception of the appeal to the KKK types. And Trump has shown over and over that he has no regard for the actual responsibilities of the office. I’m not confident of a Biden victory, but this election is very different than the one in 2016.

  51. 51.

    negative 1

    November 2, 2020 at 3:53 pm

    @Barbara: Yes, I am with you on this.  No one asked who you are voting for a$$hole just that you do your job with a minimum of competence.  And by the way, this is the RIGHT decision, so it’s not like he should be too congratulated for arriving at it.  It’s like saying I did wonderfully by not falling on my face while walking today.

  52. 52.

    Laura Too

    November 2, 2020 at 3:53 pm

    Not sure what this is about. https://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-7m-absentee-ballots-returned-in-minnesota-as-feds-announce-election-monitors/572949792/?fbclid=IwAR17VA6K375f91PQ8VWUoHKl_yeeP8-OZeRxTVQf21SZTVx8OaPwsALQzFc&refresh=true

    I’ve been working the early ballot drop off and as a receiver for ballots. Haven’t heard of any shady stuff until this.

  53. 53.

    MattF

    November 2, 2020 at 3:53 pm

    I expect the Trumpies to go back to their previous careers making spam phone calls, trying to steal money from people with dementia. So, if you get a call from ‘Amazon’ saying all you have to do to fix your acccount is send a $700 gift card to a certain person, don’t.

    As for me, I’m eating a lot of chocolate.

  54. 54.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    November 2, 2020 at 3:53 pm

    @Betty Cracker: 

    I’ve always thought he looks like an angry fetus…

    I have an entire folder with quotes from you that I trot out in other places as needed. This one is just another in a long line of disturbingly brilliant takes.

  55. 55.

    CCL

    November 2, 2020 at 3:54 pm

    @Betty Cracker:   Thanks, Betty.  I have been doing it for years, but have never been so worried.

  56. 56.

    dmsilev

    November 2, 2020 at 3:55 pm

    @germy: “I may be a partisan hack, but even I have my limits”

  57. 57.

    Bill Arnold

    November 2, 2020 at 3:56 pm

    @Ken:

    There’s the rising wave of infections…

    Not cresting, yes, but well-timed for maximal electoral damage to Trump and the Rs. Who could have imagined that the start of the Northern-state indoor season(s) (and school season), combined with making opposition to masks and lockdowns and hell any precautions against SARS-CoV-2 at all, a part of the unofficial Republican Party platform, would result in a massive wave of infections in Northern battleground states (and other Republican states) in October/November?

  58. 58.

    RedDirtGirl

    November 2, 2020 at 3:57 pm

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage: Damn, would you share? I always think about doing that and never have!

  59. 59.

    Kent

    November 2, 2020 at 3:59 pm

    I gotta say this feels a lot different from 2016.  A bunch of my family is MAGA and I live in a purple area.  From what I remember there was much more of a celebratory air on the GOP side along with gleeful hatred of Hillary that inspired them.  Yes there was racism and all that. But it was a little more optimistic and a lot of people bought the bullshit of running the country like a business and draining the swamp.  Most of my MAGA extended family has gone completely radio silent on Facebook this election and are back to posting rural farm memes, recipes, and trite patriotic bullshit about prayer in schools and that sort of shit.  In 2016 it was endless MAGA and selfies at Trump events.

    Today it’s more of a desperate revanchist feral hatred for the remaining faithful.  The Trumpers aren’t as cheerful.  Nothing they throw at Biden seems to stick and even they don’t believe their own Hunter Biden bullshit.  When I see them here around town they seem almost defiantly desperate.

    I’m as nervous and reluctant to predict anything as any of you.  No one wants to jinx this.  But this really doesn’t feel like a repeat of 2016.

  60. 60.

    SiubhanDuinne

    November 2, 2020 at 3:59 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    I’ve always thought he looks like an angry fetus

    As always, perfection. Sheer perfuckingfection.

  61. 61.

    Bill Arnold

    November 2, 2020 at 4:03 pm

    @cain:

    Well these assholes are now appealing to the 5th circuit court now

    Not counting votes is coup behavior. In a harsher country, that might eventually mean the death penalty.,

  62. 62.

    JPL

    November 2, 2020 at 4:04 pm

    This is good

    The RNC’s communications director from 2017 – 2019 under Ronna McDaniel voted for Joe Biden.

  63. 63.

    Ruckus

    November 2, 2020 at 4:05 pm

    @Laura Too: 
    Sounds to me like more trump bullshit. Reading the link, all I got was normal vote process with the exception of the volume, which is the new normal. Sounds like the feds are throwing out their chests but the state knows it’s just bullshit and there are laws against any law enforcement in the polls or the processing rooms.

  64. 64.

    LuciaMia

    November 2, 2020 at 4:06 pm

    Carville says we’ll know the outcome by 10 o’clock tomorrow evening.

    Going back to the two Obama election nights. I remember the 2012 one ending early, almost effortlessly, right around the 10 pm mark. Tomorrow night, if only, if only….

  65. 65.

    jackmac

    November 2, 2020 at 4:06 pm

    Here in Illinois the state board of elections reports nearly 3.6 million early voters as of Monday morning, approaching half of the state’s total of registered voters. We’re bluer than blue here so the outcome is not in question. Still it seems like a great many of us are determined to go out of their way to give Trump a monumental ass-whupping.

  66. 66.

    JPL

    November 2, 2020 at 4:07 pm

    @Bill Arnold: The judge said that if his ruling is over turned, he would deny it on other grounds.

  67. 67.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    November 2, 2020 at 4:07 pm

    @Laura Too: 
    From the article

    However Simon said that his office had received “no advance notice at all.” He added that law enforcement of any kind are not allowed inside local polling sites without invitation.

    This is Barr sticking a pacifier in Trump’s mouth.

  68. 68.

    Eunicecycle

    November 2, 2020 at 4:09 pm

    Ok when Carville says 10pm does he mean Eastern time or Central time?? I think he’s in Louisiana. I know I’m being too pedantic because I’m so nervous.

  69. 69.

    debbie

    November 2, 2020 at 4:11 pm

    SNL is running a special tonight at 10 p.m., allegedly a compilation of fan favorites of election sketches. Maybe it will help some laugh a bit before nodding off.

  70. 70.

    WaterGirl

    November 2, 2020 at 4:12 pm

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I will not be watching the NYT dials.

    Oh my god, just reading that brought me back to 2016 and made me anxious.  I will be (not) watching the dials with you.

  71. 71.

    WaterGirl

    November 2, 2020 at 4:14 pm

    @germy: What does that mean?

  72. 72.

    Quaker in a Basement

    November 2, 2020 at 4:14 pm

    I will be satisfied with the level of Trump humiliation if on Wednesday mornng people are saying: “I can’t believe Trump lost (state he won by double digits in 2016) and (another state he won by double digits in 2016).”

  73. 73.

    GregMulka

    November 2, 2020 at 4:15 pm

    Have sinus infection. Have antibiotics. Received a steroid shot. Hoping that will have me functional enough to ask for identification and is this your address? Don’t want to have to flake the first time I’ve tried to be a poll worker.

  74. 74.

    Laura Too

    November 2, 2020 at 4:16 pm

    @Ruckus: Thank you! I trust our SOS and AG but this kind of sent me off my perch a bit.

  75. 75.

    Brachiator

    November 2, 2020 at 4:18 pm

    @Kent:

    I’m as nervous and reluctant to predict anything as any of you.  No one wants to jinx this.  But this really doesn’t feel like a repeat of 2016.

    Might be better. Could be worse. It is somewhat unsettling that a chunk of the electorate see exactly what Trump is, and still say, “I want more of that!”

    But there is much, much less “Democrats and Republicans, no difference.” And in the last few weeks when I listened to more political podcasts, I heard a few more conservatives acknowledge that Trump mishandled the pandemic and was, himself, a threat to public safety. This was a bridge too far.

    Many people seem to recognize that the choices are distinct and pretty clear. It’s just a question of what people decide. And by what margin.

  76. 76.

    Laura Too

    November 2, 2020 at 4:19 pm

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Thanks! I appreciate you all talking me off the ledge. I have had such an amazing experience working the polls and receiving the ballots. I see so much integrity in everyone I’ve worked with. We are all concerned about the pandemic but we know how important this is. I work tomorrow thank dog, I don’t know what I would do with myself if I were home.

  77. 77.

    Anoniminous

    November 2, 2020 at 4:19 pm

    YouGov released two polls today that were conducted over the week. Averaged together they have Biden up 9. In Georgia!

    Either YouGov has gone bananas-batty or this thing is turning into a Blue Tsunami.

  78. 78.

    CaseyL

    November 2, 2020 at 4:20 pm

    @GregMulka: Practice first, at home, if  you can; just to get the sentences in your memory.  Particularly if you’re gonna be foggy on medications.

    As someone who has a low-grade terror of putting myself before strangers, whether in person or phone-banking, I can say that repetition is incredibly helpful.  It gives you a mental scaffold, so to speak.  (Not the hanging kind; the supportive kind.)

    Best of luck, and thank you for your service!

  79. 79.

    japa21

    November 2, 2020 at 4:20 pm

    @jackmac: When I get to the polls tomorrow at 5:00 we will get a sheet showing all the early voters, whether by mail or in person. That will give me a good idea as to how busy we will be. On a high turnout election we may hit 65% total, so if 50% voted early, the day will be a breeze.

  80. 80.

    prostratedragon

    November 2, 2020 at 4:20 pm

    My little seconds-counting program has been tuned to just before midnight tomorrow night all along, because I figure that no matter what we’ll have a good idea by then.

    Only about 11390 seconds to go. (Fixed typo. And now there are 30 or so fewer seconds.)

  81. 81.

    Anoniminous

    November 2, 2020 at 4:21 pm

    @Immanentize:

    What with all  the youngs voting, black turnout at 2008 levels or better, and Trump losing a swathe of the GOP coalition, i.e., suburban white women, the odds are polling is underestimating Democratic vote this time ’round.

  82. 82.

    dmsilev

    November 2, 2020 at 4:24 pm

    @Anoniminous: I’d love love love to believe that, but I’m afraid I can’t really. Pretty much all of the other last-minute polls have come down to “the race is stable. Yes, still.”. I’m guessing outlier, which is not unreasonable given how many polls have been done over the last few weeks. On the other side, there was that strong Trump poll in Iowa a few days ago.

  83. 83.

    NotMax

    November 2, 2020 at 4:27 pm

    Nice to see all indicators pointing to New Hampshire breaking for Biden.

    Still miffed at their sticking out as New England’s sore thumb in ’00.

  84. 84.

    cain

    November 2, 2020 at 4:28 pm

    I just want to say taht I thnk Oregon deserves more than 7 electoral votes based on its population.. who in the management do I have to talk to?

  85. 85.

    WaterGirl

    November 2, 2020 at 4:28 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne: I hadn’t seen her in a long time, until I clicked the link above.

    My immediate reaction was the same as yours.  She loves terribly unhealthy.  I didn’t notice the thinness, as she always has been.  But she has the huge darkness around her eyes that either seems to come from serious illness or drug addiction.  She does not look well.

    edit: her voice still seems strong.  I wonder if it could be stress and sleepless nights?

  86. 86.

    Nicole

    November 2, 2020 at 4:29 pm

    And for some lightness, check out George Takei’s Twitter feed, where you can find your Conservative Fear-Mongering Slogan:

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeTakei/status/1323354537957220353

    If Joe Biden wins, Netflix will wreck the American Dream!

  87. 87.

    Barbara

    November 2, 2020 at 4:29 pm

    @japa21: 63% of registered voters in my county in NoVa have already voted.

  88. 88.

    Jeffro

    November 2, 2020 at 4:30 pm

    @negative 1:  WaPo is reporting that Quinnipac has Biden over trumpov in Ohio(!) and Florida.

    It’s just gonna be weird, folks…but GOOD-weird! =)

  89. 89.

    Anoniminous

    November 2, 2020 at 4:30 pm

    @dmsilev:

    You’ll note I’m not overly confident of their accuracy either!

    In their defense, Georgia added a million voters since 2016 mostly young and mostly minority.  Not exactly Trump’s demographics.

  90. 90.

    WaterGirl

    November 2, 2020 at 4:31 pm

    @cain: And my anxiety level is back up again.

  91. 91.

    NotMax

    November 2, 2020 at 4:31 pm

    @WaterGirl

    She’s long managed to project the look of Bystander #1 in a Tim Burton movie.

  92. 92.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    November 2, 2020 at 4:31 pm

    @Laura Too: I assume many of these people you are working with are conservatives and as you said they working with you all for a good election? Just keep that in mind the entire right isn’t a pack of slobbering zombies willing to sacrifice themselves for the Orange One.

  93. 93.

    Roger Moore

    November 2, 2020 at 4:33 pm

    @Kay: 

    From lean Republican to toss up based on huge turnout

    The Democrats winning one house of the TX legislature in time for the 2020 redistricting would be a big Biden deal. Non-gerrymandered districts would completely change the game there.

  94. 94.

    Bill Arnold

    November 2, 2020 at 4:33 pm

    @JPL:

    The judge said that if his ruling is over turned, he would deny it on other grounds.

    Ah, very good. Thanks. Does anybody have text of the ruling? (We need to make it clear to judges that there will be consequences for anti-democracy rulings. )

  95. 95.

    burnspbesq

    November 2, 2020 at 4:33 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: 

    If Republican candidates don’t have standing, it’s hard to imagine who would.

    But the Fifth Circuit is open for business, so I’m not counting any chickens.

  96. 96.

    Calouste

    November 2, 2020 at 4:33 pm

    @dmsilev: 
    I think that Iowa poll was bad. The data looked an outlier at best, and besides the Presidential vote, it also forecasted all four Iowa house districts, from just 800 respondents. 200 respondents (the average per district) is too low to produce an acceptable result with decent error margins, it should be about 450.

  97. 97.

    dmsilev

    November 2, 2020 at 4:33 pm

    @Nicole: I get “Homosexuals will kill our savior, Donald J. Trump.”
    As Mr. Sulu might say, “oh my.”

  98. 98.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 2, 2020 at 4:33 pm

    Larry Freakin’ Sabato is predicting Biden takes Georgia and North Carolina

    @germy: Mary Matalin used to call him Serpenthead.

  99. 99.

    Danielx

    November 2, 2020 at 4:34 pm

    Aaaaaa-men, Sister Betty! Can I get a witness! Lots of them!

  100. 100.

    WhatsMyNym

    November 2, 2020 at 4:35 pm

    @Barbara:

    63% of registered voters in my county in NoVa have already voted.

    67.6% have voted in Washington state as of Saturday.

  101. 101.

    CaseyL

    November 2, 2020 at 4:35 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    @WaterGirl:

    If she’s having stressful days and sleepless nights:  GOOD!  She and her MSM colleagues helped to get us where we are.

    But, you know, she’s also just plain old.  She was an up and coming reporter back in the 1970s; very ambitious even then.

    (Linda Ellerbee’s book, “And So It Goes,” has a wonderful anecdote about Mitchell.  Ellerbee, noting her intensity of drive and energy, asked Mitchell what she did to relax.  Per Ellerbee, Mitchell snapped, “Drink coffee.”)

  102. 102.

    dmsilev

    November 2, 2020 at 4:35 pm

    @Roger Moore: Yep. Remember Tom DeLay engineering a mid-cycle redistricting of Texas on the grounds of “I want more seats”? We could undo that.

  103. 103.

    Oklahomo

    November 2, 2020 at 4:35 pm

    @Bill Arnold: That should come with a seizure warning.

  104. 104.

    Barbara

    November 2, 2020 at 4:36 pm

    @Anoniminous: There have been a couple of other polls with similar “outlier” results in Georgia, but most show a close race barely shifting toward Biden over time. That makes me think that changing demographics and likely voter screens could be masking the depth of change. It will be interesting, I hope in a good way.

  105. 105.

    MJS

    November 2, 2020 at 4:36 pm

    I recall news reports the weekend before the 1980 election that said Jimmy Carter had been informed that the polls showed Reagan with an insurmountable lead. I believe Trump is hearing a similar message, which is why he’s even more batshit insane than usual at his rallies and why his minions are throwing anything and everything at the courts.

  106. 106.

    Jeffro

    November 2, 2020 at 4:36 pm

    @Betty Cracker:I’ve always thought [Carville] looks like an angry fetus

    I’ll never be able to not see that, ever.

    Fortunately, he’ll only be on my TV for 3, maybe 4 more election cycles.  But still…

  107. 107.

    WaterGirl

    November 2, 2020 at 4:38 pm

    @NotMax: Have never seen one!

  108. 108.

    Jeffro

    November 2, 2020 at 4:40 pm

    @Kent:Today it’s more of a desperate revanchist feral hatred for the remaining faithful.  The Trumpers aren’t as cheerful.  Nothing they throw at Biden seems to stick and even they don’t believe their own Hunter Biden bullshit.  When I see them here around town they seem almost defiantly desperate.

    They should feel that way.  What’d they get for all the love they showed their orange emperor?  They got to watch rich folks get tax cuts and Barrett get a SCOTUS seat from the comfort of their quarantine living room.

    Ask them where this year’s ‘CARAVAN!!!’ is, if you really want to drive them nuts.  Or how that Clinton Foundation prosecution is going. ;)

  109. 109.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 2, 2020 at 4:40 pm

    @MJS: They say his staff feeds him favorable polls, but he spends all day watching TV and scrolling through twitter. He knows.

  110. 110.

    GeriUpNorth

    November 2, 2020 at 4:40 pm

    I want to see Texas turn blue this year. I know it’s a real longshot, but the Republican meltdown would be epic.

  111. 111.

    Barbara

    November 2, 2020 at 4:41 pm

    @JPL: If the plaintiffs lack standing the judge is supposed to stop and not get to the merits, because federal courts are not authorized to issue advisory rulings. It does sound that he was skeptical of their claims, I mean, he should be given that the Texas Supreme Court rejected them in toto.

  112. 112.

    Mary G

    November 2, 2020 at 4:41 pm

    The shootings in Vienna are horrific:

    CONFIRMED at the moment:

    *08:00 pm: several shots fired, beginning at Seitenstettengasse

    *several suspects armed with rifles

    *six different shooting locations

    * one deceaced person, several injured (1 officer included)

    *1 suspect shot and killed by police officers #0211w— POLIZEI WIEN (@LPDWien) November 2, 2020

    Stay safe, otmar!

  113. 113.

    NotMax

    November 2, 2020 at 4:42 pm

    10 words anticipating hearing from courtrooms come Wednesday.

    “Losing is not prima facie evidence of harm. Next case.”

  114. 114.

    Laura Too

    November 2, 2020 at 4:43 pm

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Nope. We aren’t supposed to talk politics…but let’s just say that we all skew to the left of center. When you are working 8+ hours with folks stuff slips out. And we had lots of time when there weren’t people around. It is Minneapolis, they had a hell of a time finding parity for Dem volunteers.

  115. 115.

    Laura Too

    November 2, 2020 at 4:43 pm

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Nope. We aren’t supposed to talk politics…but let’s just say that we all skew to the left of center. When you are working 8+ hours with folks stuff slips out. And we had lots of time when there weren’t people around. It is Minneapolis, they had a hell of a time finding parity for Dem volunteers.

     

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

  116. 116.

    Jeffro

    November 2, 2020 at 4:44 pm

    @Anoniminous: If Biden gets GA, TX, OH, and IA what’s that, 390 EVs or something?  Hold on a sec…

    …413.  413 to 125.  LOLOL

    The next “swing” state after those four is…Montana.

  117. 117.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    November 2, 2020 at 4:45 pm

    @Nicole: Illegal Aliens will Control Christopher Columbus!

  118. 118.

    Nicole

    November 2, 2020 at 4:45 pm

    @dmsilev: Ha!  That’s hilarious.

  119. 119.

    Mary G

    November 2, 2020 at 4:46 pm

    @WaterGirl: Site is running slow for me again.

  120. 120.

    Jeffro

    November 2, 2020 at 4:46 pm

    @cain:  I was kind of shocked to see that NC and GA each have more EVs than Virginia does.

    I…I thought we were…bigger than that (sob)

  121. 121.

    Anoniminous

    November 2, 2020 at 4:50 pm

    @Barbara:
    There’s a need for caution but this is exactly the kind of thing that happens in wave elections.

  122. 122.

    Another Scott

    November 2, 2020 at 4:51 pm

    @dmsilev:

    This site is predicting that Democrats will take control of the Texas state house https://t.co/0ejXhzY1iy

    — G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) November 2, 2020

    (via LOLGOP)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  123. 123.

    HumboldtBlue

    November 2, 2020 at 4:52 pm

    British historian Dan Brown has some words for those who criticize him for focusing his considerable energies on the US election.

  124. 124.

    Facebones

    November 2, 2020 at 4:52 pm

    Carville is wrong.

    it’ll be over at 11 EST the minute the west coast polls close.

  125. 125.

    Comrade Colette

    November 2, 2020 at 4:53 pm

    @Kent:

    trite patriotic bullshit about prayer in schools

    I’m looking forward to the Futuretimes when prayer in (public) schools will correctly and routinely be dismissed as the trite unpatriotic bullshit it is.

  126. 126.

    mad citizen

    November 2, 2020 at 4:53 pm

    They are having a little prediction contest over at LGM (my first post there–way too many people there!).  Using my 270 to win map, and my hope that trump ends up at 39% (Biden at 60–are there third parties getting votes this time?  There always seem to be a libertarian but for the life of me has anyone heard anything about them this year?); brings me to:

    Biden: 92.4 million votes; 412 EVs
    Trump: 60.0 million votes, 126 EVs
    53 D (including the I) Senators; 47 R Senator

    Let the Repudiation of the shitstain, and of 2020, continue!

  127. 127.

    HumboldtBlue

    November 2, 2020 at 4:53 pm

    @Facebones:

    Yup, as soon as they call Cali, Oregon, and Washington the game is over.

  128. 128.

    Another Scott

    November 2, 2020 at 4:54 pm

    @Mary G: Was for me as well, until just now.  (Chrome + uBlock Origin /Win10).  I guess Watergirl just turned off the problematic plugins.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  129. 129.

    HumboldtBlue

    November 2, 2020 at 4:55 pm

    @Mary G:

    Me too, on my desktop.

  130. 130.

    Anoniminous

    November 2, 2020 at 4:57 pm

    @Jeffro:

    And Indiana – Obama took it in 2008! – for 427!

    IT COULD HAPPEN!!!!

    OK, that’s not very likely but it’s better than the WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! when Biden/Harris have been polling above 50% – something Clinton never did – for weeks now.

  131. 131.

    HumboldtBlue

    November 2, 2020 at 4:58 pm

    Millennials and Gen Zers are Breaking Voter Turnout Records in Texas By the end of early voting, 1 million voters under the age of 30 had cast their ballot. Will they turn Texas blue?

  132. 132.

    Comrade Colette

    November 2, 2020 at 4:59 pm

    @GregMulka: Oh no, what bad timing! I hope you feel better tomorrow. If you’re willing to say, where (broadly) are you going to be working? No ID needed to vote here in California, so I’m just curious.

  133. 133.

    Comrade Colette

    November 2, 2020 at 5:02 pm

    @Nicole: The Transgenders will ban designer dogs!

    (Actually, that sounds like a good thing.)

  134. 134.

    trnc

    November 2, 2020 at 5:09 pm

    Sure, but they orchestrated two victorious Democratic presidential campaigns against Republican incumbents,

    Which race are we talking about here for Plouffe?

  135. 135.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 2, 2020 at 5:14 pm

    @Kent: Judges are not supposed to rule on the merits of a case that is not justiciable.  It is not a cop out.

  136. 136.

    indycat32

    November 2, 2020 at 5:17 pm

    @Nicole: Left wing fascists will marry the McRib.

  137. 137.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 2, 2020 at 5:19 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Yes, IANAL but I thought judges had a strong preference to avoid ruling on the merits of any case if there existed a procedural argument that would determine the decision. This is how they avoid simply being unelected rulers.

  138. 138.

    Jeffro

    November 2, 2020 at 5:22 pm

    @Anoniminous: totally agree.  People have to chill a bit.  This is really good stuff going on!

  139. 139.

    Barbara

    November 2, 2020 at 5:24 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: It is not just a preference. A ruling for a party with no standing has no legal effect on the merits. There is no case, nothing to decide.

  140. 140.

    trnc

    November 2, 2020 at 5:27 pm

    @germy: Judge Hanen: “I’m not happy with that finding. But the way I look at it, the law requires it.”

    I saw the ruling on TPM and was getting ready to post, “See, here’s another republican judge fairly applying the law even thought it’s not good for his party,” but then saw that comment.

    Oh, well, I guess he should get a cookie for handing down a ruling that made him sad.

  141. 141.

    Dan B

    November 2, 2020 at 5:29 pm

    @jackmac:  In WA state the vote is expected to be 90% or close to that number.  When you make voting 100% mail, with polling places who don’t receive their ballot, and free postage, you get high turnout.

  142. 142.

    Kent

    November 2, 2020 at 5:29 pm

    @Jeffro:

    @cain:  I was kind of shocked to see that NC and GA each have more EVs than Virginia does.

    I…I thought we were…bigger than that (sob)

    Why are you shocked?

    What’s the biggest metro area in Virginia?  Richmond at about 1.2 million?  Fairfax County at about 1.1 million?  Or the whole Virginia Beach area at about 1.7 million?

    Compare that to Atlanta with a metro population of over 6 million.  Or Charlotte with a metro population of 2.6 million.

  143. 143.

    trnc

    November 2, 2020 at 5:34 pm

    @CCL: I hope you get some rest and that tomorrow is relatively unexciting. Stay safe.

  144. 144.

    trnc

    November 2, 2020 at 5:38 pm

    @Benw: Cool, thanks. I still say it’s ok for him to put the logo back on his Marshall.

  145. 145.

    Dan B

    November 2, 2020 at 5:44 pm

    @Jeffro: I saw Carville at a candidate event years ago.  He was next to me talking with five folks.  He glowered at me even though I was just listening.  Probably used to the type of “friends” and friendly folks in DC.

    I don’t recall thinking him odd looking.  He looked like his photos.

  146. 146.

    Miss Bianca

    November 2, 2020 at 5:46 pm

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage: I’ve been keeping a running TextEdit file of “Balloon Juice Wit and Wisdom” from commenters and front-pagers for months now. Sometimes I think, “Oooh, I gotta remember *this* argument for when RWNJs (Or LWNJs) start meeping about X issue,” and sometimes it’s just, “Damn, that’s funny.”

  147. 147.

    J R in WV

    November 2, 2020 at 6:08 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    I hadn’t seen her [Andrea Mitchell] in a long time…

    She is 74 as of last month. So getting older, should think about retiring, but I know how hard it is to convince a reporter to give up their passion.

  148. 148.

    Mai Naem mobile

    November 2, 2020 at 6:12 pm

    @LuciaMia: I am waiting for the stories of the Trumpov campaign cutting off credit cards and other expense account stuff of staffers at 10PM like Romney did. I remember reading that staffers couldn’t use their campaign credit cards for transportation to home that night. That’s cold.

  149. 149.

    LongHairedWeirdo

    November 2, 2020 at 6:13 pm

    I think he’s going to lose in humiliating fashion. I think the race will be called reasonably early on election night. And I think with that perspective, we’ll marvel at how much we agonized these past few months.

    Absolutely not – we should *never* marvel at how much we agonized. They nominated a judge for a President who flat out said they expected that judge to help them win the election, by returning favorable rulings, and pushed the judge through in record time, with barely a speed bump  over her refusing to recuse in any case involving the Presidential election. They were shutting down the postal service, challenging voting rules at every turn, filed lawsuits that had no lawful basis that nevertheless received serious consideration (and in some cases, received decisions in their favor). We knew there were armed assholes ready, willing, and able, to make trouble, up to and including kidnapping and likely executing a Democratic governor.

    We should always remember that the Republicans know, deep down, it doesn’t matter how many horrible, horrible news stories crop up, how many crimes are committed (so long as they, themselves, don’t face criminal charges), nor how much else damage is done;  the ONLY thing that matters to them is having more votes at the time they’re able to force the votes to stop being tabulated. As long as they slot the win, THEY JUST DON’T CARE.

    We may, someday, feel that we worried too much about the *polls*, I’ll grant you. But we’d have to be complete morons to marvel at how we agonized about the situation.

  150. 150.

    Captain C

    November 2, 2020 at 6:41 pm

    @Nicole: Bisexuals will kill Christopher Columbus

  151. 151.

    Mike in NC

    November 2, 2020 at 6:47 pm

    @J R in WV:  Mrs. Greenspan really needs the money!

  152. 152.

    Morzer

    November 2, 2020 at 8:11 pm

    We are going to win and win bigly. Trump will scream and kick and whine all the way to January 20th and beyond. That doesn’t matter and won’t matter. We are going to win and win bigly.

  153. 153.

    Uncle Cosmo

    November 2, 2020 at 8:14 pm

    @Barbara: It irks me no end when judges make what are basically statements of their political views from the bench.

    Almost as much as it’s irked me for months seeing one Jackal after another whine, Biden wasn’t my first or second or … nth choice, but…

    (Just FTR.)

  154. 154.

    Uncle Cosmo

    November 2, 2020 at 10:56 pm

    @Facebones: @HumboldtBlue: Um, no, Carville is correct. No one with a reasonably bright eighth-grader’s understanding of US politics seriously believes the Left Coast is in play. Those 74 EVs are baked in. At 10 PM the commentators will add them to results from the rest of the country, and we will know.

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