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Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

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75% of people clapping liked the show!

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

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Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

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One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

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If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

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You are here: Home / Archives for 2020

Archives for 2020

Drones Over Colorado And Nebraska

by Cheryl Rofer|  January 7, 20204:08 pm| 107 Comments

This post is in: Science & Technology

Commenter Jay Noble is wondering about those drone formations that are being seen over thinly-populated areas of Colorado and Nebraska. So am I. Jay did the research, and I did a little more, so here’s what we know and don’t know, mostly the latter.

Since about the middle of December, about 17 drones, with six-foot wingspans, have been operating in grid patterns from 7 to 10 at night in this area. The brightly lit drones fly at about 100 feet in the air. A little bit of video here, but lights in the night sky aren’t particularly interesting.

Whoever is operating the drones hasn’t spoken up, so there is much speculation as to their purpose. The FAA and FBI are investigating.

The grid-like flight patterns suggest a search or assessment mission. One hypothesis on a dicey website (not gonna link) and apparently spreading is that they are searching for a lost nuclear warhead from one of the missile silos in the area. I’ll bet money that’s not the case. The last time the Air Force lost a missile warhead, the preceding events were quite obvious. It was in 1980, in Damascus, Arkansas, and the warhead was lost because the missile underneath it blew up.

Speculations also include that one or more of the military bases in the area (Colorado Springs, Offutt Air base) is testing a drone operation. This seems unlikely, because the military has plenty of controlled air space in which to do such a thing. Also unlikely, but possible, is that one of the military units is working this without authorization. A Facebook friend of Jay’s speculates that it’s a classified technology; a “target item” is emplaced in a large search area during the day, and the search takes place in the night.

A hobbyist could be playing around, or a commercial operation could be mapping or conducting other types of reconnaissance.

Law enforcement met to coordinate Monday night, January 6, and told the public to be on the watch for the control vehicle, likely a large van or box trailer. They are advising people not to shoot the drones down, which may be illegal.

It looks like the civilian authorities genuinely do not know what the drones are up to or who is behind them. If it’s the military, this is unconscionable. They have other places to test such things. Or they could announce that they’re doing a test.

If it’s a private organization or hobbyist, they may be violating the law.

Stay tuned.

Drones Over Colorado And NebraskaPost + Comments (107)

So Much for Pressure

by @heymistermix.com|  January 7, 20203:15 pm| 89 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

To me, this means no witnesses:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Tuesday that Republicans have enough votes to proceed with President Trump’s impeachment trial with no agreement with Democrats on witnesses.

The announcement came as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) faced increasing pressure to send articles of impeachment to the Senate, including from some in her own party, to allow a trial to begin. Pelosi has held on to the documents as Democrats seek guarantees about the scope of a trial, including witnesses. Earlier Tuesday, Trump highlighted objections to the prospect of testimony from former national security adviser John Bolton, as Bolton’s announcement that he is prepared to appear at a trial continued to roil Capitol Hill.

As I said yesterday, Bolton’s offer to testify is the sleeves of a vest when there’s not going to be any testimony.

So Much for PressurePost + Comments (89)

A Pilot Fish

by @heymistermix.com|  January 7, 20201:11 pm| 77 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

This piece about Lindsey Graham (via this tweet) is really good, and this Steve Schmidt quote is a perfect summing up:

“People try to analyze Lindsey through the prism of the manifest inconsistencies that exist between things that he used to believe and what he’s doing now,” Schmidt says. “The way to understand him is to look at what’s consistent. And essentially what he is in American politics is what, in the aquatic world, would be a pilot fish: a smaller fish that hovers about a larger predator, like a shark, living off of its detritus. That’s Lindsey. And when he swam around the McCain shark, broadly viewed as a virtuous and good shark, Lindsey took on the patina of virtue. But wherever the apex shark is, you find the Lindsey fish hovering about, and Trump’s the newest shark in the sea. Lindsey has a real draw to power — but he’s found it unattainable on his own merits.”

The author, Mark Binelli, doesn’t find any evidence of Graham’s long-rumored homosexuality, for what that’s worth, though someone of Graham’s age and background could have that buried so deep that nobody would find it. He does find evidence that Graham is a lonely man with a fucked up family history who glories in being a Senator, one who will do anything to keep his job, though the latter is already manifestly obvious to anyone who’s watched him the last couple of years.

The piece is worth a read for some insight into the character of a lot of politicians.

A Pilot FishPost + Comments (77)

Artificial Intelligence & You: Don’t Take My Word For It…

by Major Major Major Major|  January 7, 202012:39 pm| 69 Comments

This post is in: Media, Politics, Science & Technology, Tech News and Issues

This is part two of a series of posts on artificial intelligence.

A month ago, I wrote a post about our upcoming reckoning with AI-driven text generation. Today, computer security expert & cryptographer Bruce Schneier was kind enough to write a follow-up for the Atlantic, “The Future of Politics Is Robots Shouting at One Another“:

Presidential-campaign season is officially, officially, upon us now, which means it’s time to confront the weird and insidious ways in which technology is warping politics. One of the biggest threats on the horizon: Artificial personas are coming, and they’re poised to take over political debate. The risk arises from two separate threads coming together: artificial-intelligence-driven text generation and social-media chatbots. These computer-generated “people” will drown out actual human discussions on the internet.

[…]

Over the years, algorithmic bots have evolved to have personas. They have fake names, fake bios, and fake photos—sometimes generated by AI. Instead of endlessly spewing propaganda, they post only occasionally. Researchers can detect that these are bots and not people based on their patterns of posting, but the bot technology is getting better all the time, outpacing tracking attempts. Future groups won’t be so easily identified. They’ll embed themselves in human social groups better. Their propaganda will be subtle, and interwoven in tweets about topics relevant to those social groups.

Combine these two trends and you have the recipe for nonhuman chatter to overwhelm actual political speech.

It’s a short read, and I recommend clicking over.

Schneier provides many excellent links to AI-driven dis/misinformation campaigns that have already happened or are already underway.  One of his examples is the public comments on the FCC’s proposal to end net neutrality, which were flooded by pro-Trump content. Around half the signatories were fake. Over a million comments were written by a shoddy AI from an easy-to-detect template. The FCC (which like many government bodies is organized to be controlled by the president’s party) did not care.

Schneier touches on an important discussion point: what will the effect of all this be on society? Nobody knows, and the technologies are going to improve significantly faster than our ability to study their effects.

The best analyses indicate that they did not affect the 2016 U.S. presidential election. More likely, they distort people’s sense of public sentiment and their faith in reasoned political debate. We are all in the middle of a novel social experiment.

That data, of course, is four years old.

We’re already at the point where it’s easier to generate passable garbage than it is to detect and remove it. This will only get worse as we go from ‘passable garbage’ to simply ‘passable content’. Already, “it’s just a Russian bot” is used to dismiss any number of arguments we see online. What happens when the Russian (and Saudi, Chinese, North Korean, Republican, Hindu nationalist, etc., etc.) bots reach whatever the tipping-point level of sophistication is? When anything written by a non-verified source is instantly suspect?

Barring a dramatic shift in user authentication standards, we may soon find that the majority of political content (by volume) is written by computers. What happens then?

Artificial Intelligence & You: Don’t Take My Word For It…Post + Comments (69)

Nothing matters a lot — zero premium plans on the Exchange

by David Anderson|  January 7, 202010:51 am| 10 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance

Health Affairs has published a new research article that I cowrote with Coleman Drake of the University of Pittsburgh. We were curious about what happens to county level enrollment in the ACA when more people are exposed to plans that cost them nothing after subsidy. We are not studying whether or not people choose the zero premium plans (our data would not allow that) but whether or not enrollment changes due to a plan being offered at zero premium instead of “merely” low premium.

We took advantage of Silver Loading again. From 2014-2017, most zero premium plans were only available to people who earned under 150% Federal Poverty Level. These folks have a low expected contribution for the benchmark Silver plan and are eligible for strong CSR assistance. In 2018 and 2019, Silver Loading spiked the number of people who were exposed to at least one plan that had a zero premium.

Nothing matters a lot --- zero premium plans on the Exchange

Lots of people were now exposed to at least one plan that cost them nothing after subsidy.  And this matters.  We found that the presence of a zero premium plan increased enrollment by 14% for the group of folks who earn between 151-200% FPL if their county had a zero premium plan.  This is after controlling for premium spreads and premium levels as well where demand curves behave in the expected manner — cheaper prices leads to more enrollment as well.

We think zero is weird and special.  This is well established in the behavioral economics literature.  We could hypothesize two stories that explain this weirdness.  The first is an anchoring story.  The default display on Healthcare.gov is to show lowest premium first.  If the first number a person sees is zero, maybe everything else looks reasonably priced?  We would expect to see people who are exposed to zero premium plans to not overwhelmingly purchase the zero premium plan.  The second story is more of an administrative burden/cognitive load management story.  Paying bills is a pain in the ass.  Juggling yet another bill involves a lot of management where it is affordable if everything works out just right but if there is a bad week/month, stuff has to give and adding one more bill into the pile of things that have to be juggled is a significant weight.  A zero premium plan removes the cognitive burden of additional juggling.  If this is the story, we would expect most of the people who are exposed to a zero premium plan to be buying the zero premium plan.  I suspect, without any micro-data evidence, that it is a bit of both.  We will have future work teasing this out.

Most of the zero premium plans are Bronze plans although there are some zero premium Silver and Gold plans (this entire research question started due to me seeing zero premium Gold plans in Oklahoma).  Bronze plans are very high deductible and cost sharing.  If someone is eligible for CSR-87 Silver plans at a reasonable premium, I would recommend that they go to Silver even if the monthly payments are higher.  However, the relevant comparison for a zero premium Bronze plan is against uninsurance.  At that point, a zero premium Bronze plan with a high but capped deductible dominates a zero premium uninsurance plan with an infinite deductible.

Now where does all of this fit in?

From a state rule making point of view, this strongly suggests that states should encourage their insurers to offer very cheap bronze plans that are fully subsidizable.  This means allowing insurers to offer plans that are only essential health benefits.  It also means allowing insurers to offer at least one plan with maximum deductibles and out of pocket amounts.

From an insurer point of view, zero premium plans should improve retention and decrease risk variability as it is very hard to terminate a member for non-payment of premium when there is no premium to pay.  We think that we will see a significant difference in enrollment length for people who have a zero premium plan and people who have selected a low dollar ($1 -$10 ) plan.

Nothing Matters A Lot.

Nothing matters a lot — zero premium plans on the ExchangePost + Comments (10)

I Do What I Like, and What I Like is What I Like

by @heymistermix.com|  January 7, 20209:51 am| 106 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

The headline is a lyric of a song I heard the other day, and I think it pretty much encapsulates what’s going on with Trump at any given time. I also think it expresses his lack of staying power – right now, it looks like he’s about to set the world on fire in Iran and Iraq, but give him a few days and he’ll be paying attention to something else. My guess is that Pompeo and the rest of the war lovers will soon be disappointed by Trump’s lack of commitment. I think Trump already understands that war is a losing game, so that’s why he has Pence giving a speech on Iran policy next week.

Speaking of Pompeo, he’s not running for Senate in Kansas. Ha ha fucking ha, is my measured response to that news. I would have loved to see the polling that drove his decision. He’s so god damned unlikable that even the voters of Kansas have decided to spare us another Cruz-like figure in the Senate.

Open thread.

I Do What I Like, and What I Like is What I LikePost + Comments (106)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Here We Go Again (Still)

by Anne Laurie|  January 7, 20206:51 am| 180 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Republican Venality, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome

Fox News has landed an Iraq expert for the coming war. Google "Judith Miller" and "weapons of mass destruction." I can't believe she's being disinterred for this. pic.twitter.com/MNoRSkFi98

— Peter Dykstra (@pdykstra) January 6, 2020

My God he could tweet stuff constantly like a raving lunatic or something. https://t.co/H5zs1O92Iw

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) January 6, 2020

He also might conduct sensitive business on a cell phone that is not secure. Oh … wait …

— Karen Tumulty (@ktumulty) January 6, 2020

Example infinity there’s never a plan, it’s all id, impulse, & improv. And because there’s never a plan, the rest of the gov’t & military aren’t prepared, unsure what to do, & aware what they’re told now will probably be contradicted (often by Trump himself) a few hours later https://t.co/7qxUFEYqqj

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) January 6, 2020

It's not complicated. The theory of the case for this administration is clear: they favor disruption in Middle East bc they're convinced that 'stability' hasn't served US interests. But they forget the immutable logic of the region: even if it's bad now, it can always get worse. https://t.co/CLXVVaDAPI

— Suzanne Maloney (@MaloneySuzanne) January 7, 2020

Fixed the headline:

"Trump prepares to throw Pence under the bus, tasking the VP to lay out the Administration's Iran policy in speech next Monday: White House official"#TrumpsWar https://t.co/AMbySHDzRb

— Social?Fly (@socflyny) January 7, 2020

Has anyone tried unplugging 2020 and then plugging it back in?

— Seth Cotlar (@SethCotlar) January 6, 2020

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Here We Go Again (Still)Post + Comments (180)

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