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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” was supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

Giving in to doom is how authoritarians win.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Be a wild strawberry.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

The current Supreme Court is a dangerous, rogue court.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

Fucking consultants! (of the political variety)

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Since we are repeating ourselves, let me just say fuck that.

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

“A king is only a king if we bow down.” – Rev. William Barber

Decision time: keep arguing about the last election, or try to win the next one?

Tick tock motherfuckers!

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You are here: Home / Archives for 2020

Archives for 2020

Election Year Open Thread: Good for Mike Bloomberg

by Anne Laurie|  January 9, 20201:32 am| 24 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Election 2020, Open Threads, Voting Rights

Mike Bloomberg will join Stacey Abrams in Georgia on Friday for her voting rights’ summit. Bloomberg donated $500k to her gubernatorial race in 2018 and $5M to her org Fair Fight in Dec. 2019.

— Alexi McCammond (@alexi) January 8, 2020

She’s been speculated to be a top pick for VP for others and her ability to connect with communities of
color is unmatched. Although not an endorsement, the optics of even standing next to Abrams is a huge get for any Dem presidential candidate.

— Alexi McCammond (@alexi) January 8, 2020

Stacey Abrams will not be Bloomberg’s VP, if only because his chances for the nomination are vanishingly small. But if her local paper, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, is correct, Bloomberg was responsible for about a third of the funds Fair Fight raised to fight voter suppression during the second half of 2019. For that money, not to mention the money he’ll be expected to donate in the future (and that his support will produce from other donors), she’s willing to give him a spot at her invite-only summit. Who knows, he might learn some important leassons… as might the reporters who’ll follow Bloomberg, who wouldn’t have shown up otherwise.

It’s purely transactional, on both their parts. I’m sure this is actually comforting to Mike — he’s a self-proclaimed Data Guy, for whom transactional is easy, unlike all that grip’n’grin stuff natural politicians find fulfilling.

Abrams' 2018 gubernatorial run and subsequent fight against voter suppression has made her a Democratic darling who’s now one of the most sought after surrogates for the party's 2020 contenders. More on @axios https://t.co/ydUXNIlPgu

— Alexi McCammond (@alexi) January 8, 2020

Election Year Open Thread: Good for Mike BloombergPost + Comments (24)

Wednesday Night Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  January 8, 20209:24 pm| 88 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I just realized my daughter, Grace got a Barbie Camper and a Barbie Science Lab for Christmas which is essentially a Barbie Breaking Bad starter kit. #BreakingBad @AMC_TV @aaronpaul_8 #barbie pic.twitter.com/bBUzgFepsb

— Greg Tindale (@gregtindale) January 5, 2020

Sharing is caring
pic.twitter.com/sWJtAMPtND

— Akki (@akkitwts) January 9, 2020


(World’s most tolerant husky)

Getting British people to not talk about how completely fucked they are is what the monarchy exists for https://t.co/J46l9dTUIa

— Big Malarkey Lobbyist (@MenshevikM) January 8, 2020

It me, right now…

Deflated Hedgehog pic.twitter.com/44QNJMQ91W

— 41 Strange (@41Strange) January 3, 2020

Wednesday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (88)

Foreign Affairs Open Thread: Democrats Refuse to Roll Over for MOAR WAR!!!

by Anne Laurie|  January 8, 20205:26 pm| 167 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, NANCY SMASH!, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, War

Pelosi: "To honor our duty to keep the American people safe, the House will move forward with a War Powers Resolution to limit the President's military actions regarding Iran. This resolution …will go to the Rules Committee this evening & will be brought to the Floor tomorrow."

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) January 8, 2020

Per the Washington Post:

… U.S. officials said Wednesday they knew Iranian missiles were coming hours in advance of the attack after warnings from intelligence sources and communications from Iraq. Iraq’s acting prime minister has said he was informed of the attack ahead of time.

“We knew, and the Iraqis told us, that this was coming many hours in advance,” said a senior U.S. administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the communications.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) announced that the House will vote Thursday on a measure to limit Trump’s military actions regarding Iran. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) said the classified briefing by Trump administration officials Wednesday was “probably the worst briefing I’ve seen at least on a military issue in the nine years I’ve served in the United States Senate.”…

Inbox: Senators Markey, Warren, Duckworth, Leahy, Merkley, Wyden, and Van Hollen today introduced a Senate resolution condemning Trump's threats to attack cultural sites in Iran and demanding the President refrain from violating the laws of armed conflict.

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) January 8, 2020

Sen. Murphy: "I was deeply surprised at the lack of information presented by the administration regarding a specific imminent threat … I was, I think, both surprised and saddened to not have that information before us. I think it is likely because it doesn't exist." Via ABC pic.twitter.com/rnoEG1ZYc5

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) January 8, 2020

Schumer just said at the mics that Pompeo et al walked out of the Iran briefing when the questions from senators got too hard and wants them to come back

— Emma Dumain (@Emma_Dumain) January 8, 2020

Sen. Joe Manchin, a member of the Armed Services Committee, on whether he saw evidence of justification for Soleimani strike: "No, I did not." @MSNBC

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) January 8, 2020

Even the GOP’s dynamic duo was unpleased with Pompeo…

GOP Sen. Mike Lee goes off on the Trump briefing: "They had to leave after 75 minutes, while they’re in the process of telling us that we need to be good little boys and girls and run along and not debate this in public. I find that absolutely insane. I think it’s unacceptable." pic.twitter.com/rs6LOimfAm

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) January 8, 2020

ETA:

Rand Paul echoes Lee and calls instructions by administration not to debate military action “particularly insulting.”

“I think we need to debate the separation of powers,” he adds

— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) January 8, 2020

Man, I haven’t seen a senator that pissed in a while.

— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) January 8, 2020

Foreign Affairs Open Thread: Democrats Refuse to Roll Over for MOAR WAR!!!Post + Comments (167)

Seems a Little Foot Stompy

by @heymistermix.com|  January 8, 20204:29 pm| 70 Comments

This post is in: Impeach the Motherfucker!

There will be no haggling with the House over Senate procedure. We will not cede our authority to try this impeachment. The House Democrats’ turn is over. The Senate has made its decision. This is for the Senate, and the Senate only, to decide.

— U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell (@SenMcConnell) January 8, 2020

Mitch has always struck me as a show, not tell, guy, so I’m guessing the pressure is getting to him just a wee bit.

In other news, here’s yet another argument for mandatory retirement in the Senate (via Jim, Foolish Literalist in the last comment thread):

Dianne Feinstein says it’s time for Speaker Nancy Pelosi to send the impeachment articles to the Senate.

“If we’re going to do it, she should send them over,” the California Democrat said. “I don’t see what good delay does.”

— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) January 8, 2020

Seems a Little Foot StompyPost + Comments (70)

Unexpected

by @heymistermix.com|  January 8, 20202:13 pm| 223 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Here’s a little break from the madness in the form of what appears to be some sanity:

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex have said in a statement they “intend to step back as ‘senior’ members of the royal family and work to become financially independent”.

The official statement from Prince Harry and Meghan said: “After many months of reflection and internal discussions, we have chosen to make a transition this year in starting to carve out a progressive new role within this institution.

“We intend to step back as ‘senior’ members of the royal family and work to become financially independent, while continuing to fully support Her Majesty the Queen.

“It is with your encouragement, particularly over the last few years, that we feel prepared to make this adjustment.

“We now plan to balance our time between the United Kingdom and North America, continuing to honour our duty to the Queen, the Commonwealth, and our patronages.

In case you don’t follow the royals at all, Harry is Princess Di’s son from an affair with somebody whose name I forgot*, who married an actress. He’s like 5th or 6th in line for the crown depending on the current count of kids his older brother and his wife, the Duke and Duchess of Who the Fuck Cares, crank out. I think I have that right. correct me if I’m wrong. After watching The Crown, all I can think is that these two have their heads screwed on straight, by some miracle, because who would want that life?

I wish them the best and want to thank them for at least a dozen anguished cries and rending of garments from old Tories that will cross my news feed, providing me some amusement in our shared time of need.

Open thread.

* Apparently, this is just a rumor that has been refuted. I thought it was a well-accepted fact.

UnexpectedPost + Comments (223)

The Orange Oaf Speaks…

by Betty Cracker|  January 8, 202010:58 am| 234 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Politics, Trumpery, War

The orange oaf is scheduled to waddle forth to address the nation at 11 AM ET. Post reporter Josh Dawsey says on Twitter: “Several aides say Trump is not looking to escalate further with Iran with this morning’s speech.” Well, that’s good?

I predict Trump will be extra snorty and insufferably braggy — really going out on a limb here!

Anyhoo, open  thread.

The Orange Oaf Speaks…Post + Comments (234)

Babies, deductibles and incentives

by David Anderson|  January 8, 20209:25 am| 15 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance

This month’s Health Affairs has a great article written by Dr. Michelle Moniz and colleagues that looks at the out of pocket expenses for the year before a live birth to the three months post-partum for commercially insured individuals who had a live birth at a hospital from 2008-2015.  The headline finding is scary.

Among women with out-of-pocket spending, mean total out-of-pocket spending for maternity care for all modes of delivery increased from $3,069 in 2008 to $4,569 in 2015

Having a baby is expensive if you have insurance through work.  About half of all births in the United States are by women covered by employer insurance.  Almost all of the rest are covered by Medicaid which has a completely different and far lower to non-existent cost-sharing profile.

However, there is something further in the article that piqued my interest from an insurance and value point of view.

mean total out-of-pocket spending for vaginal birth increased from $2,910 to $4,314, and for cesarean birth it increased from $3,364 to $5,161 (appendix exhibit A2). These trends were largely driven by a rise in deductible payments in the study period. Among women with deductible payments, the mean deductible for vaginal birth increased by 62.3 percent, from $1,617 in 2008 to $2,625 in 2015, and the mean deductible for cesarean birth increased by 72.3 percent, from $1,532 to $2,640.

Standardized costs for vaginal and cesarean births showed some variation but did not vary greatly over time (vaginal birth: $24,317 in 2008 [95% CI: $24,184, $24,451] versus $23,148 in 2015 [95% CI: $23,012, $23,283]; cesarean birth: $39,702 in 2008 [95% CI: $39,390, $40,015] versus $43,774 in 2015 [95% CI: $43,402, $44,145]).

We know that the US voluntary C-Section rate is high.  The high rate does not deliver better outcomes.  It is expensive in both direct reimbursed costs and recovery time for the mother and family.  We have seen in California efforts to drive down low risk C-section rates.  However, the implied insurance designs are not helping with this goal. Two things are happening here as I lay out in the chart I created from the data in the above paragraphs:

 

Costs in 2015 Vaginal Delivery C-Section
Deductible $2,625 $2,640
Total Cost Sharing $4,314 $5,161
Non-Deductible Cost Share $1,689 $2,521
Total Cost $23,148 $43,774
Non Deductible Costs $20,523 $41,134
Total Cost Share Percentage 19% 12%
Implied Coinsurance Rate 8% 6%
Balloon-juice.com 1/8/2020
Data from: https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2019.00296

First the cost of labor and delivery through either pathway is too damn high.  The deductibles that are being paid in 2015 are roughly similar to each other  for either pathway.  In both cases, the deductibles are a tiny fraction of total costs.  In either case, as soon as a woman walks into her ObGyn’s office with a positive pregnancy test, there is no difference in the incentives being generated by the deductible.  A $2,600 deductible will influence decisions to go to urgent care or an ER, it will influence decisions to stick with a brand drug or a similar generic, it will influence low level decisions, but as soon as the cost bundle is big enough to actually drive a significant portion of national health care expenditures, the deductibles are irrelevant.

Secondly, the implied coinsurance rate (Non-deductible Cost Share/Non-Deductible Costs) is higher for the cheaper alternative.  That is messed up.  The total cost of non-deductible cost sharing is $800 less for vaginal delivery than a C-section but the implied coinsurance rate of each dollar of spending is 33% higher.  This is a weird set of incentives.

If we believe that there are too many low-risk, elective C-sections that don’t offer improved value over vaginal births, and if we believe that cost sharing influences decision making at the margin, we should structure our cost sharing so that vaginal births are much cheaper than elective, low risk C-sections.  Right now, the insurance structure that is being reported in this paper is removing strong incentives away from vaginal births over the marginal C-section.

Babies, deductibles and incentivesPost + Comments (15)

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