BREAKING: Jen Psaki just slammed Mitch McConnell's proposal to postpone the debt ceiling fight to December: "Why kick the can down the road another couple of weeks? Why create an additional layer of uncertainty? Why not just get it done now?"
— No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen (@NoLieWithBTC) October 6, 2021
Late last night, in a comment to Anne Laurie’s Late Night Open Thread post, I stated (edited lightly for clarity):
To answer Jen Psaki’s rhetorical question, the reason McConnell is willing to kick this to December is that it actually gives him more leverage. He’s counting on the following three things:
- That the negotiation process for getting the infrastructure as reconciliation bill done will be so toxic that it will actually harden Sinema’s narcissistic chaos agent Heath Ledger’s Joker impression. This will make it even harder for the Democrats to do a simple filibuster revision just for the debt ceiling as she’ll have dug herself in so deep there’s no way that Schumer can get her extricated from her position and lined up in the right direction. He’s also counting on this happening with Manchin too, but since Manchin has a history of grousing and stalling and then doing the right thing when push comes to shove, Sinema is the play.
- If the debt ceiling is only waved or raised until December, then when he kills the hostage it is even more traumatic as it will come a few weeks before Christmas. Republican officials and conservative movement leaders and the conservative news and digital media people are already screaming that Biden and Fauci won’t cancel Christmas on them. If he forces a default before Christmas, the informational foundation has already been laid down in the news media – political journalists, pundits, mainstream, and conservative news – to blame what would become the worst Christmas in the US since at least 1941 on Biden and the Democrats.
- Finally, he’s counting on Ted Cruz being Ted Cruz. Meaning if Cruz blows up the very narrow opening created by what is being referred to as McConnell blinking, then McConnell will be able to go out and say “It isn’t my fault. We told the Democrats what they had to do, we gave them a simple plan over a month before the potential default in October and they refused to even consider it unil it was too late. They should have known Cruz would do something like that, which is why I told Senator Schumer and President Biden well in advance that they needed to start reconciliation for the debt ceiling immediately. It is their fault they refused to listen to common sense advice.
That’s McConnell’s strategy here. That’s McConnell’s play.
ETA: There’s one other important component here, which is McConnell continuing to work the political journalists and pundits to further drive Biden’s negatives up. The goal here is to depress Democratic turnout in the off year state elections this November, as well as turn as many Independents towards the Republicans as possible because they believe things are going in the wrong direction. And then carry that through the 2022 elections to retake the Seante and the House, which will allow McConnell to functionally end the Biden administration two years early and, as a result, setting the conditions for a GOP sweep in 2024 as people will want a change, any change, to turn things around. The Virginia state elections will be an early indicator as to whether this will work.
McConnell also wants to force this through reconciliation because the Parliamentarian won’t allow the debt ceiling to just be waived through reconciliation. Which requires the Democrats to raise it by a specific dollar amount. This allows McConnell to use that gigantic number against them to improve his own chances of retaking the Senate majority while the Republicans also retake the House majority.
Chief Wright, like me and many of you, has seen this before:
Once again, the Senate kicked the debt ceiling can down the street to December, so they can threaten a government shutdown and furlough of government employers right before Christmas
Or, as anyone who's been through this before: The Traditional Congressional Holiday Ass Fucking
— Stonekettle (@Stonekettle) October 7, 2021
Senator McConnell is already revising the narrative that today’s events to temporarily raise the debt ceiling are the result of his efforts to get the Democrats on track and therefore, despite all the actual evidence, he is the hero of this story, not the villain. From the 11:20 AM time stamped update:
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) took full credit on the debt ceiling suspension agreement, insisting that Democrats didn’t have a plan to avoid default until the offer he issued yesterday.
“Republican and Democratic members and staff negotiated through the night in good faith,” McConnell said. “The Senate is moving toward the plan I laid out last night to spare the American people a manufactured crisis.”
Democrats did have a plan, though, to pass a House-passed debt ceiling elevation through unanimous consent, but Republicans wouldn’t cooperate.
To no surprise, McConnell insisted that Democrats had plenty of time to raise the debt ceiling through reconciliation (which Democrats didn’t want to do) as he patted himself on the back for the agreement between both parties to extend the debt ceiling through early December.
“The pathway our Democratic colleagues have accepted will spare the American people any near-term crisis while definitely resolving the majority’s excuses that they lack time to address the debt limit through the 304 reconciliation process,” McConnell said. “Now there will be no question they’ll have plenty of time or if our colleagues would instead prefer a more traditional bipartisan discussion around basic governance, they can stop trying to ram through another reckless spending and taxing spree that would hurt families and help China.”
Senator McConnell’s overall goals for the remainder of the year are to scuttle the infrastructure via reconciliation bill, which he knows will also fail the infrastructure through regular order bill, and force a US debt crisis right before Christmas because he believes it will help him retake the Senate and Republicans retake the House. This is why he was dealing directly with Senators Manchin and Sinema yesterday before he made his most recent play. Talking to them is part of his plan to protect the filibuster, which is one of his most potent tools.
One of his other most potent tools is that he has a caucus full of legislative extremists who also like to showboat. He can always count on senators like Senator Cruz, Senator Hawley, and/or Senator Cotton to make him look reasonable and personable. In this case he’s counting on Senator Cruz being Senator Cruz:
Unlike Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) wants a requirement of 60 votes to advance the debt ceiling bill instead of letting Democrats pass cloture via unanimous consent.
Cornyn did not specify who the GOP holdouts are on giving unanimous consent for the cloture vote on the debt limit bill to happen today, but Cruz appears to be among a handful who want to kick up a storm in an effort to deflect from the notion that the party “caved” to Democrats.
This deal, provided it doesn’t still fall apart, is a reprieve. It is not a decisive victory. Senator McConnell has made a tactical retreat in order to preserve his ability to achieve his actual strategic objectives.
Open thread!
Cermet
McConnell is overlooking the Ace the Dems have which he simply can’t counter; if the Dems refuse to give in come Dec and place the default upon his (the turtle’s) shoulders, the 0.001% will scream bloody murder and force him to give in. There is absolutely no f’ing way the super rich will allow a default and see their wealth go down. The Dem’s need only have a spine and let this run – they have Mitch the bitch by his ball’s; that turtle answers solely to the rich/bankers and will never be permitted to allow a default – period.
Major Major Major Major
If I were the Dems I would set it to a number so comically large that the attack ads will only work on the true believers. Five quintillion dollars. Nobody’s going to believe the Democrats increased the debt by five quintillion dollars.
Adam L Silverman
@Cermet: They’ve all already shorted the US and anything else that could possibly crash as a result of a US default or the potential for one. It’s why they’re the super rich and we’re leaving comments here.
Hildebrand
McConnell can’t do anything about the Reconciliation Bill if the Democrats get everyone on board. Likewise, he can’t do a damned thing about the Infrastructure bill because that is up to the House.
So, this is all about the debt limit – it’s his only hostage left. Let’s find a way to take that out of his hands, as well. I think even Manchin wants to avoid that. Sinema? Who knows. But, even a flake will soon realize they are the only one left fluttering around.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: Have you seen any indications that the actual Democratic senators would do this? No. Do you know why? Because it isn’t something they’d do.
laura
McConnell trying to slip the turd into Schumer’s pocket -as Stonekettle diagramed, is a bullshit offer and good on Jen Psaki for calling him out. So tired of these machinations and the media framing. Grrr. Stabby. And fuck Ted Cruz.
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L Silverman: So?
Librarian
One of my grammar pet peeves is people putting in opening quotation marks, then forgetting to put in closing quotation marks.
Edmund Dantes
This is wrong
”McConnell also wants to force this through reconciliation because the Parliamentarian won’t allow the debt ceiling to just be waived through reconciliation. Which requires the Democrats to raise it by a specific dollar amount.”
it should read
”he wants it to go through there cause he knows the Dems won’t overrule the Parliamentarian’s purely advisory opinion”
Steeplejack
@Librarian:
Also opening parentheses and lonely dashes. “The other thing he’s doing—and this really blows my mind, is something something something.” They cry out for closure.
Adam L Silverman
@Hildebrand: Actually he can do a lot. He just can’t filibuster it.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: So it means we live in a world where this will never happen.
Jim Appleton
I suck at politics, but I’d sure like to see more being made of the fact that the reason the debt ceiling needs raised is TFG and McTurtle’s acts and omissions.
Adam L Silverman
@Librarian: I’ll update your file. Any place in specific that this is bothering you right now?
Adam L Silverman
@Edmund Dantes: Maybe you’d like to write my posts from now on?
Adam L Silverman
@Steeplejack: We’ve had this discussion. Do you want to have it again? Or do you just want me to finally ban you?
WhatsMyNym
@Adam L Silverman:
Making money shorting currencies is hard to do, the same with companies. It’s usually just used as hedge.
Martin
I still don’t see why this doesn’t further make the Dems case to Manchin/Sinema regarding the filibuster. Willing to bet the progressive caucus would take Manchins reconciliation proposal in exchange for eliminating the filibuster to solve the debt ceiling.
debbie
Can someone please introduce a bill to tactically censure Mitch McConnell for fucking with the American people’s well-being?
eclare
Sportsball fans: UEFA match between France, current World Cup winners, and Belgium starting at 2:45 EDT.
Let’s go les Bleus!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Adam L Silverman:
“Oh, dear, what can the Dems do, you know how the Dems can never get their shit together with the Progressive just itching to destroy capitalism and make the US Commie” flash picture of AOC in her “tax the rich” dress “and start with the show trials. And New Zealand ins’t allowing outsiders in, so that refuge is gone..”
Yes, sure the .001% are really looking forward to a shut down.
Elizabelle
@Martin: That works for me. Eliminate the filibuster, and you can get so much other good legislation through.
Get a voting rights act, and it will be harder and harder for Republicans to win elections.
Please, please, please.
Jim Appleton
@Steeplejack: Is that a booger on your lip?
Major Major Major Major
update: never mind
Another Scott
RollCall:
The “Extraordinary” measures have become standard now (the US actually hit the debt limit on August 1 when the previous deferral expired). Usually Treasury can add a few months to the actual default date by deferring interest on federal bonds in federal employee retirement accounts and so forth.
I agree, this is a temporary victory, and an important one – Democrats were united that Moscow Mitch wasn’t going to dictate policy – and more will be needed to finally end this dangerous tactic by Moscow Mitch and the GQP. I would like to think that S&M will eventually get on board with a filibuster carveout for the debt ceiling and the other vital Democratic priorities, but it’s far from certain and we’re not there yet.
Get the RB and BIF done, get the voting rights stuff done, etc., then figure out what to do in December about the debt. We need to get significant victories to campaign on to build the majorities in 2022 and beyond.
Cheers,
Scott.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Martin: Consider this from Machin’s POV, he votes yes, all the GOP twatwaffles in West Virginia will scream “SOCIALISM!” while taking the money. Of course he is saying fuck no, until the GOP votes for it too.
Zodiac Killer is having a fit because he likely has to be one of GOP sacrificial lambs because Texas is getting so purple, so he wants more GOP senators voting for the debt increase to spread the blame.
Sayne
Sigh.
Adam, I wish you weren’t right all the time
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DO0kxKMHIA
Old School
Deleted
steve g
I can’t see it. One way or another there will be a vote, and the Democrats will vote in favor. If the Republicans vote against it, it would be ridiculous to then claim it is the Democrats’ fault it didn’t pass.
Martin
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I expect Manchin will eventually vote for the bill. He’s making the point to WV that if a republican were in his seat, they’d get nothing. The machinations aren’t necessarily to shrink the bill, but to put his face as the key to this getting passed in whatever form. Every day this drags out is a free campaign ad for him – provided it eventually passes.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott:
And yet he dictated the policy and they have not ended his use of this dangerous tactic.
Suzanne
I will note that Bernie Sanders just let Joe Manchin have it, and I really appreciate it. Bernie is a pain in the ass, but he is ten times the man Joe Manchin is.
Adam L Silverman
@steve g: And yet they do it over and over and over and the political journalists write it all down as if they were stenographers.
?BillinGlendaleCA
Newt tried this trick with the government shutdown in 1995 to make Bill Clinton a one term President, it didn’t work all that well.
Hildebrand
@Adam L Silverman: What can he do about the Infrastructure Bill? If the House votes for it, it goes to the President’s desk. There are no tricks he can pull to stop that if the Democrats have the votes.
As far as the Reconciliation bill – do you really think that either Manchin or Sinema are going to want to be seen as McConnell’s stooge? Really? How does that benefit them in their negotiations?
Yes, he is a completely amoral human being, but he isn’t a mythical beast, he can be defeated. We have to stop imbuing these people with the aura of invincibility and inevitability.
Mike in NC
Moscow Mitch is back at his usual undermining of democracy. Film at 11.
Adam L Silverman
@Hildebrand: The regular order infrastructure bill will not come up for a vote in the House if the Senate Democrats do not pass the infrastructure reconciliation bill. So if he can fail the latter, he fails the former.
As for imbuing him with an aura of invincibility, I’m not. I’m describing, as I’ve been describing, his strategy. When someone can actually point me to a strategy to defeat his by an actual Democrat in the Senate with the actual ability to implement that strategy, then I will happily say that we finally have a chance to defeat him. But no such Democratic strategy exists.
germy
It seems he’s declared war on the Democratic party.
I thought lawmakers were supposed to work together for the good of the country. (pause for laughter and derisive hooting.) Is he still fighting for the confederacy?
Geminid
@Major Major Major Major: Since this is an open thread, I want to say that when I reviewed our back-and-forth the other day about Eric Adams and the New York City electorate, I understood that while I was referencing the Balloon Juice debate about them, you were talking about the real world!
A classic Yankee trick.
catclub
@Major Major Major Major: I agree with this.
I also thought about accidentally writing the date as 2031 in the postpone bill.
catclub
Agreed. Until Manchin and Sinema are fully behind a 50 vote route, everything is dead.
catclub
@Hildebrand:
All the evidence points to yes. They really really DON’T want to be seen as cooperating with the rest of the Democrats.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: His diktat remains that the Democrats have to use Reconciliation to increase the debt limit. They have not done so, they continue to say it will not happen, and he’s agreed to increase the debt limit.
Yes, temporarily.
Cheers,
Scott.
Cermet
@Adam L Silverman: Now you got me worried – ugg.
Old School
This thread isn’t going to help Omnes’ burnout.
catclub
@Martin:
Neither do I, but there is no evidence that manchin and Sinema are turning against it.
Kent
@Adam L Silverman: Not really. A lot of wealthy have their wealth tied up in stocks and real estate and such and can’t easily divest to diversity or short things without incurring capital gains taxes.
Ken
Gary Francis Poste died in 2018.
(Not that I necessarily agree with that identification; I only saw a couple of news reports.)
Ksmiami
@Cermet: they can fire the Parliamentarian as well
Ksmiami
@Suzanne: where?
Hildebrand
@Adam L Silverman: Again, though, I’m not sure what he can do to stop the reconciliation bill other than getting Manchin or Sinema to be his patsy. And I just don’t see how being a puppet of McConnell helps either one of them.
The reconciliation bill is all about negotiation between the Democratic party stakeholders – once they get that settled, and I think they will sooner rather than later, that is that.
These two bills are sausage making at its finest – nobody likes the process – but the process is working. Sure, the negotiations are going to water these down, but that is the way governing actually works. If these bills fail, it will because the Democrats screwed it up, it will be a spectacular own goal – it won’t be because McConnell is the better tactician or strategist.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: so when do you predict America splits? I give it 10-14 years…at most
Kent
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Cruz doesn’t have to vote for it. None of the GOP needs vote for it. All they need to do is agree not to filibuster.
Another Scott
@catclub: Sinema isn’t saying much of anything in public, but she is negotiating in private. I take this as a good sign – she’s not putting out numbers and demands that she knows she will have to walk back (unlike what Manchin has already had to do ($1.5T no $1.9-$2.2T, no…)).
Politics is slow and messy. Am I the only one that remembers what happened before the PPACA was finally passed and signed by Obama??
Hang in there, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
Suzanne
@Ksmiami: In WaPo today.
Matt McIrvin
@catclub: We need to get Manchin and Sinema to see that if the economy collapses and Trump is reinstalled as President, they will not be rewarded by the Republicans for bucking their party; they will be knifed in the back.
Suzanne
@Matt McIrvin: Do you really think Sinema cares? I don’t think she cares. I don’t think she’s that smart.
Hildebrand
@Another Scott: You are bang on.
I mean, yes, we have some really vital stuff that needs to happen to thwart the anti-democratic impulses of the republicans. That said, allowing that fear to overwhelm our understanding of the regular negotiations of spending bills is not helping.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Another Scott: As OO would say, enjoy the sausage.
bbleh
It’s not a sure thing either way, and who knows what’s going on in what passes for Sinema’s mind, but my take on it is that this really WAS a retreat, that McConnell was going to lose if he stuck to his position — possibly because at least one Republican Senator told him that his/her donors were putting on too much pressure — and that all-important Comity was preserved in the World’s Greatest Deliberative Body by devising a retreat portrayed as a compromise in order to save face.
It’s true that McConnell lives to fight again, but December is months away, and one possibility is that the debt limit becomes just a minor bit of late-night business handled as everyone is rushing around trying to buy gifts and almost nobody notices except a few cranky WSJ journalists and some nutcase right-wing media commentators.
As to the idea that the very wealthy are okay with the economy crashing because they’re shorting major indices or T-bills or what have you, I don’t think so. Certainly they’re hedging against such an event — they’d be foolish not to — but there’s no way they’re rooting for it. It would simply be too much damage, too much uncertainty, and far too many long-term consequences. (ETA also what @Kent: said.)
I DO hope the Dems are (slowly) learning their lesson about working the media ahead of time. Psaki should be talking about the Obstruction by Senator McConnell every time she gets behind the podium, and surrogates should be calling him Senator Shutdown, and Republicans the Shutdown Party, to every reporter in earshot. Repetition can do a lot to create a narrative, and this happens to have the virtue of being true.
Matt McIrvin
@Suzanne: I have no idea what is going on in her head. Manchin, I think I kind of understand, but she’s an enigma.
bbleh
@catclub: I think they want the latter but not the former. The question is, can the rest of the Dems connect the two so inextricably that their distaste for the former outweighs their desire for the latter.
Elizabelle
I think we can all agree on this: it is long past time for Satan to call Mitch McConnell home.
Tim in SF
It’s an interesting post with solid reasoning, but you lost me at this point:
The Virginia state elections are not correlated to success or failure in the national election the following year. They just aren’t.
JPL
@Elizabelle: Who ever is waiting in the wings is worse.
WaterGirl
@Jim Appleton: I don’t understand what that means.
Another Scott
TheHill:
[ womp, womp ]
One of Schumer’s strongest weapons is his ability to control the calendar and keep the Senate in session. I’m sure he realizes that…
It’s a good reminder that the GQP is far from unified and their factionalism is a weakness not a strength.
Cheers,
Scott.
Hoodie
@bbleh: This. They’re not shorting a debt default right now because it can take a long time to unwind positions and you can lose a lot of money unwinding those positions. It’s also hard to know what exactly to short because the damage from something like a US debt default could be catastrophic and systemic. There’s also the possibility that the crisis passes and you’re left holding the shorts. People make big money on shorts when there is a high level of groupthink and denial that goes on a for a long time, such as when the residential mortgage CDO bubble was inflating, but even then it took a long time for those shorts to pay off and those shorts really had their asses hanging out. Now, it’s possible that some genius out there really sees something that would make the debt default a likely outcome, but that would likely be some idiosyncratic investor, not the usual functionaries in the world of finance.
lowtechcyclist
@Adam L Silverman:
I see: any strategy with <100% chance of success has no chance at all of success.
I think there are some numbers missing in between.
Burnspbesq
@eclare:
Disgruntled Spurs fans saying “we told you so” after Carrasco and Lukaku beat Lloris near post.
Belgium up 2-0 at the half.
Omnes Omnibus
@Old School: Nah, everyone out on the ledge can stay or fuck off at their leisure. I see a viable path through this that is simply based on the fact that Manchin and Sinema are assholes but not complete dicKs.
lowtechcyclist
@Another Scott:
Hell, I was one of the many Juicers making PTDB calls to my Representative after Scott Brown won the special election.
As the Hitchhiker’s Guide says in large friendly letters on the cover, “DON’T PANIC.” I plan on abiding by that guidance.
Burnspbesq
@Omnes Omnibus:
You’d better be right about that.
Quiltingfool
This is for Kay! And everybody else! Trae Crowder, Liberal Redneck, has some thoughts re protesters at school board meetings!
https://twitter.com/traecrowder/status/1446193482255634471?s=20
Fair Economist
McConnell’s position will be much weaker in December, as long as reconciliation passes. There will no longer a reconciliation bill for him to demand an attachment to. Plus, everyone will know that he blinked, and that blink showed that everybody thinks if it really comes down to the wire Cinemansion will not be willing to crash the world economy and send many of the 0.001% to the poorhouse for a stupid technicality. Maybe he can offer another short-term extension but at some point even Cinemansion will be sick of the stress and the charade and just vote to end the problem with a filibuster carve-out nobody will care about.
Benw
Remember that Mitch’s wife would absolutely cut his flippers off if the US reneged on the millions of dollars of sweet trade contracts her family firm has with the US!
Also, the last two times the Republicans shut down (eta: under a Dem prez) the govt the normies turned on them pretty fast and they folded. A debt default would be even more catastrophic. I’m hopeful that if the Democratic leadership holds the line, the Republicans will fold, or if they do actively filibuster a bill to increase the limit, Manchin and Sinema will come around.
Elizabelle
@JPL: I don’t agree, JPL. McConnell is sui generis.
But don’t let me bring any spot of optimism to your day.
catclub
I disagree. McConnell is the agent of his caucus. They could throw him out at any time if he was doing things they did not want him to do.
The present GOP is sui generis. We have not seen their type before.
randal m sexton
@Adam L Silverman: Do you have an notion of why the Trillion Dollar Coin option has been rejected by Biden ? I have heard them say something to the effect of that it is just too silly, but maybe there are some other less known reasons ? I think as long as Montgomery Burns is not delivering it — it would pretty much solve this problem.
Steeplejack
@Adam L Silverman:
We’ve had what discussion?!
Quiltingfool
Over at NoMoreMisterNice blog, Steve has a little essay about McConnell (spit). The gist is that McConnell is not well liked by anybody. Polling shows he is more disliked than Pelosi or Schumer; even Kentuckians dislike him. Yet, they voted for that asshole, probably because they hate Democrats more. Satan does need to call him home, but I don’t think Satan really wants him, lol.
If you really want to jump off a ledge, read NoMoreMister. An optimist he is not. There are some really good commenters there – Jordan Orlando is one of my favorites.
Omnes Omnibus
@Quiltingfool: He is becoming tiresome on Twitter.
Elizabelle
@Tim in SF: Also, I don’t see Virginia federal employees — and they are numerous — flocking to the polls to elect a Republican governor when the threat of shutting down the government — Merry Christmas, feds! — hangs around for December.
Do recall that Terry McAuliffe won his first term — rather more narrowly than I would have liked (against nut job Ken Cuccinelli, just 3 points) — because Virginians were furious at Ted Cruz for shutting down the government.
Thanks, Ted!
I don’t know what to make of the “polls tightening.” Haven’t we seen by now that polling is a very uncertain prospect these days? But, Democrats always do strong GOTV. (Redshift is already knocking those doors. Yay Redshift.)
I’ve already voted at the government center. 3 minutes, in and out the door.
Betty Cracker
@Fair Economist: I don’t claim to have any insight on McConnell’s strategy, but I figure he absolutely does not want to move Manchin and Sinema off their bizarre devotion to the filibuster. If they agree to a carve-out for the debt, they’d subject themselves to inconvenient questions about why the debt ceiling issue is more important than voting rights, women’s reproductive rights and other vital legislation that can’t get passed because of the filibuster.
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker:
I would pay good money to be there when they are asked about that.
Elizabelle
@catclub: Hey there. You are missing my point. McConnell is unusually skilled at evil. He has an incredible and often creative grasp of how much he can obstruct and subvert. (And, of course, no shame.). Or, at least I think so.
Burnspbesq
France gets a belated wake-up call. Two-all on a lovely finish by Benzema and a Mbappe penalty.
Emerald
@Adam L Silverman: They are stenographers.
Jim Appleton
@WaterGirl: SJ is bypassing the content for petty criticism of form
My comment does the same.
“I’m sorry, I wasn’t paying attention. Is that a booger on your lip?”
//s
WaterGirl
@Jim Appleton: Thanks for the context.
Edmund Dantes
@Adam L Silverman: no. But when something states as fact something demonstrably wrong should we just let it slide?
the parliamentarian is purely an advisory role and we do no one favors by assigning power to the role it does not have.
Geminid
@Quiltingfool: “Yet they voted for that asshole, probably because they hate the Democrats even more.” That is why the few trump voters I know voted for the man (using the term “man” loosely). Conservative politicians and their media minions have successfully sold to their voters a scary vision of the Democratic party built on exaggeration and half truths. People expressing consternation and disgust that so many people voted for trump miss the fact that many Republican voters didnt even like or respect him, that they were voting against the barbarians of the Democratic party.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: that’s one hell of a take…
Ken B
@randal m sexton: Has Biden said he wouldn’t mint the coin?
I don’t think he is likely to talk about it if he’s considering actually doing it… why give the GOP a heads up so they could work more mischief?
I really don’t think he wants to do it, but if the choice is the coin or default, I think he’d pick the coin.
WaterGirl
@Ken B: Joe Biden is not going to let the country default.
Adam L Silverman
@Cermet: Everyone should be worried. No one should be panicked.
Omnes Omnibus
@Ksmiami: Yes, I know you disagree and think blood in the streets and dissolution is inevitable. As you can see, I do not.
Burnspbesq
High drama. A potential winner by Lukaku waved off by VAR for a very questionable offside, and Theo Hernandez scores for France.
Good luck to the USA and Jamaica having to top this.
Adam L Silverman
@Tim in SF: Let’s see what happens and then we can determine if they are or they aren’t.
Adam L Silverman
@lowtechcyclist: That’s not what I’m after. I’m after a strategy that has a reasonable possibility of success. But I’ve yet to see that articulated by any Democrats in the Senate.
Adam L Silverman
@randal m sexton: I have no idea. Frankly, they’re right that it is a trick and/or a gimmick.
Adam L Silverman
@Steeplejack: We did. By email a long time ago. Unless you’re some other pedant who is impersonating Steeplejack.
If there’s a specific error in a specific place that you want me to correct, please point it out. If you’re here to just present generalized complaints because you don’t like how I write, then we’re going to have a problem.
Adam L Silverman
@Edmund Dantes: As long as the Parliamentarian is allowed to do the job she was hired to do and the Democrats refuse to consider overruling her, replacing her, or just doing away with the position then she has the power she is being credited with.
I understand exactly what you’re describing. It is absolutely, 100% correct in the technical details. Unfortunately, in the reality we’re experiencing and living, all that matters is that she has been ceded this power, she is using it, and the Democrats do not seem interested in actually doing anything about that based on the technical details.
Soprano2
@Adam L Silverman: That’s because they are Republican stenographers. I don’t know how to change that. They are convinced, in the face of all evidence to the contrary, that Republicans are the fiscally responsible ones and Democrats are the irresponsible spendthrifts. They have their frame, dammit, and they won’t be budged off of it.
Suzanne
@Geminid: Lots of people voted for Trump even though they don’t love him because of status games. They see the Dems as reducing their status.
J.D.
If they want a specific number, why not give them an absurdly large number that sounds small to the sort of numbskull who might be swayed by GOP advertisements saying “the Democrats borrowed 30 trillion dollars!!!!” For instance, just set it to 10^1000 (ten to the power a thousand). To a numbskull that just sounds like ten thousand, which doesn’t sound near as scary as 30 trillion. To those bright enough to understand how big 10^1000 is but still dumb enough to fall for those ads, it might cause some cognitive dissonance when they realize the ad is accusing the Democrats of borrowing vastly more money than there are atoms in the universe. Bonus: you never have to worry about raising the limit again.
Steeplejack
@Adam L Silverman:
GTFO. I made one general comment, not directed at you, agreeing with another commenter about a general pet peeve, also not directed at you, as far as I know. I didn’t read your top post closely enough to see if you had missing quotation marks. Jesus.
And if I suggest that you correct something—as I did with “abject lesson” the other night—it’s not to “score points” but to help clarify what’s being said or to correct what appear to be typographical errors.
Ohio Mom
@lowtechcyclist: I think I may have said this before: Adam’s role in life is fleshing out worse-case scenarios. It’s a noble calling, but his insights can sure put us amateurs in a tizzy.
dww44
@Quiltingfool: Steve, the blog master, is an absolutely nice and kind person but a truly committed pessimist. Reading him regularly can often result in one coming to believe the GOP is all powerful and Dems can never carry the day, not in Congress, not with and in the media, and not with the American Public writ large.
Ksmiami
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m hoping for amicable divorce actually… best for everyone
EriktheRed
@Quiltingfool: I’ve had to stop reading him lately because he’s been right so fuckin’ often.
lowtechcyclist
@Adam L Silverman:
Do they actually need to articulate “reach a deal with M&S on reconciliation, and fold an increase in the debt limit in with it”?
Or do you believe that strategy doesn’t have much chance of success?
Seriously, I don’t get what you’re driving at.
WaterGirl
Jennifer Rubin has an interesting take on why McConnell blinked;
Do we think that Rubin has any special insight into Mitch McConnell, having played on the other team for so long?
Bill Arnold
@Betty Cracker:
Is that just your interpretation of what McConnell is trying to sell them? Because there is is an easily-argued difference. A GOP-caused default on US debt is a deliberate Damage The USA move, that hurts a high percentage of all Americans. It cannot be spun as a positive, though the GOP (and rest of the RW) would try (and fail). Other legislation can be argued, even if the arguments suck.
Geminid
@Suzanne: This certainly is part of the problem. But I think that generally, the Republicans’ bogus branding of the Democratic party is their best weapon, perhaps their only good one when it comes to winning Independent voters.
Geminid
@Bill Arnold: Yeah, I don’t think Manchin and Sinema would be fazed by questions regarding a double standard on the filibuster. If you told either that commenters on a hundred almost-top ten thousand blogs thought they were hypocrites, neither would bat a gimlet eye.
Adam L Silverman
@Steeplejack: Then I misunderstood and misinterpreted your comment and I apologize for picking a fight where there was no need to do so.
And I appreciated your pointing out abject/object the other night.
Adam L Silverman
@Ohio Mom: Your mellows, I am here to harsh all of them!
Steeplejack
@Adam L Silverman:
Fine, no problem.
trnc
And create a worse problem by completely undermining faith in our currency. Our currency is relatively stable because most people AND the federal govt basically agree on the value. If the govt can just make up something to claim it makes good on the debt, why would anyone else trust any currency the govt prints? Why would I pay taxes? Obviously, the govt wouldn’t need the revenue because it could just make a new trillion dollar coin whenever it wants. How would the IRS justify prosecuting me for tax evasion when it doesn’t actually have to collect revenue?
Geminid
@Adam L Silverman: I really appreciate the work you put out and put in here. I’m hoping you will continue to post every now and then on Israeli politics. Maybe if and when the Lapid/Bennet coalition pushes a budget through the Knesset.
Israeli politics are as complex as those of Florida or even New York City, and the more light shed on them the better I think. And these issues affect the U.S. in general and the Democratic party in particular.
Eolirin
@Adam L Silverman: Doesn’t the current strategy of refusing to use reconciliation for this count? If it looks like they can come to an agreement on the reconciliation spending bill before the new deadline, they can just tack it in there now, but simply ignoring McConnell’s demands to use the reconciliation process to just lift the debt ceiling forces Manchin and Sinema to either let the country default or do a filibuster carve out.
I feel like that has a really high chance of resulting in a filibuster carve out.
I still don’t see how this has a high likelihood of playing out in McConnell’s favor. He doesn’t have actual control over Manchin and Sinema. The Democrats have the votes they need if they get Manchin and Sinema on board, so they’re negotiating with them not him. All they have to do is not give him more power than he has and stay the course on not using the reconciliation process for this (outside of it being part of the spending bill).
Eolirin
@Eolirin: Like honestly, if Manchin and Sinema made it clear that they’re not going to under any circumstances let the US default on its debt, McConnell would be better off making sure they got either the ten votes they need or unanimous consent because the alternative is that Manchin and Sinema are then under more pressure to either pass the spending bill before December 3rd, or provide a filibuster carve out. The only way this doesn’t play out that way is if you think Manchin and Sinema are willing to let the US default, or that Schumer will blink and cave to McConnell.
Bill Arnold
@Eolirin:
And beyond that, if we keep the filibuster, maybe it should be split into two types of filibuster, the 60 votes to close debate and the 41 votes to continue the filibuster versions, with a clear categorization of legislation that falls into the later category.
Because the current filibuster has a def-facto failure by the majority narrative, the party in power failed to gain enough votes to close debate. The opposite version would be failure by the minority to sustain debate, with 41 Senators required to vote for continue blocking something, as often as the Majority Leader decides to schedule votes.
lowtechcyclist
Looks like Sens. Cruz and Graham have settled the question of whether this was some brilliant stratagem on Mitch’s part.
FNWA
i don’t have the time to read all the comments to see if this opinion has been posted before, so please forgive me. Chuck Shumer and Nancy Pelosi are very aware of everything Adam posted. Chuck may not be the tactician that Nancy is (jury still out) but if they are “letting” the turtle kick the can down the road, they have a plan for that moment.
Eolirin
@lowtechcyclist: It was his only play if Manchin and Sinema were getting ready to do a filibuster carve out.
Jean
Josh Marshall said the other day: “This is open and shut. McConnell caved when Democrats refused to budge. Now they can focus on their reconciliation bill. It comes up again in December. But McConnell has already shown he doesn’t have the stomach for it. With recon out of the way he’ll have less leverage not more.” I hope that is the case.