A highly sensible, evocative explanation of why to start canceling parties and events that could spread Omicron, even when personal risk is low. https://t.co/qQlJCYDvbP
— nxthompson (@nxthompson) December 17, 2021
Ed Yong, possibly the best American reporter on the pandemic, at the Atlantic:
… Omicron didn’t much shift the way I weighed my personal risk. Although the new variant can evade some of our immune defenses, early data suggest that boosted people are roughly as protected against Omicron infection as people with two vaccine doses are against Delta. That protection isn’t foolproof, but even if immune systems can’t block the virus from gaining an initial foothold, they should still be able to stop it from causing too much damage. If I got the virus on my birthday, I’d expect to be knocked down for a time but okay by Christmas—and I’d expect the same to be true for everyone who was meant to come…
My friends, of course, are adults who can make informed decisions about their own risks and their own loved ones’ risks. But the logic of personal responsibility goes only so far. Omicron is spreading so rapidly that if someone got infected at my party, my decision to host it could easily affect people who don’t know me, and who had no say in the risks that I unwittingly imposed upon them. Omicron is unlikely to land me in the hospital, but it could send my guests’ grandparents or parents to one…
I feel haunted by [health care workers’] words when I make decisions about the pandemic. When I stare out my window, the world looks normal, but I know through my reporting that it is not. This has already changed the way I behave, and not just to avoid getting COVID. I’ve been trying to drive more carefully, in the knowledge that if I got into an accident, I wouldn’t get the same care that I would have two years ago. I feel that the medical system in this country is at a tipping point—a fragile vase balanced so precariously on an edge that even a fly could knock it over. Omicron is a bullet. It’s one that we can each choose whether to fire…
It is easy to despair, but we cannot afford the luxury of nihilism. Grim though the stories I’ve written may be, I have tried to infuse every one with some hope—with the acknowledgment that a better future is at least possible, if not probable. And despite everything, I firmly believe that it is. Failed systems constrain us, but we still have agency, and our small choices matter immensely. The infectious nature of a virus means that a tiny bad decision can cause exponential harm, but also that a tiny wise decision can do exponential good…
======
The is neither time for complacency nor for dismay
We will see a large wave of infections
Our goals should be to:
1. Save lives
2. Preserve hospital capacity
3. Keep schools, essential services openWe can do these things
My latest in @TheAtlantichttps://t.co/Tt8gcbm1qy
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) December 19, 2021
Don’t Panic About Omicron. But Don’t Be Indifferent, Either:
… Much remains unknown about the dynamics of Omicron, and new evidence is emerging as rapidly, it seems, as the variant is spreading. But we know enough to anticipate some key features, particularly the variant’s unprecedented transmissibility. We should now expect a very large wave of infections—one that is gathering steam already in New York City, and will spread quickly throughout the country. We will see cases rise rapidly in the next few weeks, likely peaking sometime in mid-January. With any luck, cases will then fall as quickly as they rose, getting to very low numbers by the end of February. All of this suggests that the work ahead is to manage the next six to eight weeks.
Given the transmissibility of this virus, nothing short of a hard lockdown will prevent a large spike in cases. That is the path the Netherlands has taken. But at this point in the pandemic, in our country, a lockdown would fail because too many Americans would refuse to comply. Thankfully, we can take a very different approach…
We have choices to make. During this Omicron wave, we can’t do everything we’d want to do if the pandemic were over. But we can do so much, and far more safely than at the beginning of the pandemic. Large indoor holiday parties with eating and drinking? As fun as they are, we should probably be canceling those. But seeing friends and family? That is essential, and we should feel comfortable celebrating with our nearest and dearest these holidays—as long as everyone eligible is vaccinated and boosted, and uses rapid testing as an additional layer of protection.
This isn’t the holiday season we had wished for, but it needn’t be anything like the fearful and isolated winter a year ago. Omicron’s spread makes a surge of infections inevitable, but the impact of those infections depends on the steps we take over the next few weeks. Boosted folks will largely do fine; partially vaccinated people will get infected at very high rates. Unvaccinated and high-risk folks with breakthroughs will be at risk for hospitalizations…
======
CDC data is overcounting shots as “first doses,” when they’re instead boosters or 2nds.
It means more people are fully vaccinated & boosted, but also more are fully unvaccinated.
Signals are the overcount is in the millions. No one knows. Scoop &?:https://t.co/WiTEWmUXCd
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) December 18, 2021
The issue is how shots are recorded — no one disputes the number of shots administered. But they’re concentrated in fewer arms.
If you can’t link a shot to others (like my 2nd dose being linked to my 1st) it’s sort of a straggler and the fallback is calling it a first dose.
The U.S. health system is so fragmented that data are getting skewed. This was a problem before the summer but took off then and in the fall, as people sought booster shots before they were cleared.
For example, someone goes and gets a “first shot,” but really it’s a booster.
Or, someone might get a shot in one county and their second in another county, or another state. Some places have addressed that, but generally, there’s a risk that that person is double-counted as two half-vaccinated people, rather than one fully vaccinated one.
No politician is all that incentivized to bat an eye, because sorting this out will reduce their favorite metric — how many people have gotten “at least one shot.”
It allows them to tout widespread vaccine coverage. But it’s at least partially a mirage…
The CDC data lake is, to be very fair, in an unenviable position. They’re sucking in data from 50 states, from pharmacies and other providers, from other entities like cities, or federal agencies, etc. All count things a bit different or use different software. It’s messy.
So anyhow, now, the CDC data show that 37 million people in the U.S. allegedly never got their second dose, or 11 percent of the entire nation. That gap — 11 percentage points between “at least one dose” and fully vaccinated — far exceeds similar countries. It’s 2.6% in the EU.
So the question is: are Americans who get one shot uniquely likely to never get a 2nd? Or is there another factor at least partially at play?
States and other jurisdictions have started to dig into it. Some found this problem: their first dose count was too high.
Other states found no problems, and say their data has no material issues. (I asked all of them.) Others revised, but not for this issue. Others said the CDC process was too onerous for them to participate & revise. And others said they’re still planning to submit revisions…
In short: that group, the unvaccinated, is larger than the CDC data currently show. And omicron is here.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) December 18, 2021
======
From a looong thread:
COVID Update: Omicron will peak in the US in the third wave in January according to a consensus of 10 scientists we interviewed. 1/
— Andy Slavitt ?????? (@ASlavitt) December 16, 2021
Even with a limited understanding of the severity of Omicron, it feels like this implies some concerning news and some better news (it’s all relative at this point??). 3/
— Andy Slavitt ?????? (@ASlavitt) December 16, 2021
======
Q&A with @dwallacewells covering Omicron. Why is the Gauteng epidemic cresting so seemingly early? What's going on with Omicron severity? https://t.co/Hk4RjCVRzb pic.twitter.com/U2ruLKyHLL
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) December 18, 2021
======
How COVID vaccines shaped 2021 in eight powerful charts https://t.co/SOlxlAz4v1
— Gregory Koblentz (@gregkoblentz) December 16, 2021
Another Scott
For different-church-lady, and all of us:
(via CherylRofer)
Be careful out there – the pandemic is not over.
Cheers,
Scott.
Brachiator
I don’t see people panicking, especially in the US, where a lot of people seem intent on celebrating the holidays with family and friends.
In Europe, countries like Denmark are imposing new lockdowns. The fear is that increasing spread of Omicron may put strain on hospitals.
I mentioned in an earlier thread that if Omicron spreads rapidly here in the US, we might see an exacerbation of the results of differences in behavior in blue states and in red states where governors are doing their best to pretend that Covid is no big thing.
JMG
I assume all posters here are like me in that they’re either already boosted or trying their best to be so. They’re diligent mask wearers. I really don’t know how much more we can do except reduce our exposure to the outside world and hope for the best. My personal emotions are more numb than anxious about the virus right now.
Baud
@Brachiator:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_Q_xpos5-XY
Brachiator
@JMG:
In order to maintain family peace, a friend who is all vaxxed and boosted may attend a Christmas party hosted by a woman who only recently and reluctantly got her first vaccine jab. My friend does not know what the vaccine status of the other attendees might be. Fortunately, the weather will be mild and my friend intends to eat outside.
Another friend is hosting a holiday bash and people who are not vaccinated are pointedly not invited.
Benw
We”d already planned a very small birthday party for my daughter, who almost never gets a party because her birthday’s right after Xmas. Now we’ve switched to outdoors only (ice skating and cupcakes) but of course it’s a public ice rink so we have to decide if we’re going to cancel completely, which SUX.
eclare
@Another Scott: I told my Aunt today I was not coming out for Christmas. My relatives insist on going to a Christmas Eve service, and my Aunt said no one wears masks, but she’s “sure they’re all vaccinated.”
Nope. And it’s such a tribute to their minister who died of covid last year that no one bothers to wear a mask. I’m sure Jesus wouldn’t either, right?
Eta> I know all my relatives are vaxxed. My Aunt is boosted, not sure about the rest.
Cermet
Here at Balloon-Juice we aren’t gonna panic about Omicron or any other possible variant or many other issues. That said, we will be resigned to both the variants and to the fact this wave and maybe others will continued to be fueled by Plague Rats. That’s life with the new racist plague that the thugs have unleased.
WaterGirl
I cancelled my Christmas trip. It makes me sad that I won’t be with family, but I feel that it’s the right thing to do so I am at peace with my choice.
VeniceRiley
I have a couple mild symptoms and am getting tested today. My roommate is away and I don’t want to infect her.
eclare
@Benw: That does suck..I feel so bad for the kids. All because of selfish and mean assholes.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
I’m vaccinated and boosted and so is the rest of the small (7 total people) family group we plan to spend Christmas with. I will say that I AM a little disappointed that rapid test kits seem to be unobtainable here in the Maryland suburbs of DC. We were planning on testing our three person unit before getting together with my parents, sister and her husband. But we can’t conjure test kits out of thin air. I was looking to buy 6 (two for me, my wife and MIL) the day before yesterday and yesterday. Amazon can’t send any that would get here before January. CVS says they’re out of them online but their inventory system is showing them available at several nearby stores, but we tried two of them this weekend and they were completely out of stock even though CVS said online they were in stock at those stores.
I’m not sure where else to go to try to get them. I can’t find any info online about the county, State or federal government making them available to people. It’s very frustrating that going on two years into this thing that even if I’m willing to shell out $150 of my own money on test kits they’re not available. We should have adequate testing capacity by now. We obviously still don’t.
Cermet
tRump got booed again for saying he got his booster?! These Maga’s didn’t get the memo that their fearless leader is always right? This is just strange – tRump is on the side of vaccination again after his first series of boo’s about getting vaccinated. These people are not just stupid, racist but extremely determined to prove by death or mountainous debt that they will be freedumb or else.
The Dangerman
@Benw: 12/30 Birthday this end. Same as LeBron James and Tiger Woods (I like to think they may be lurkers and will now say they share birthdays with me). I empathize with your Daughter.
Nelle
Our big, calculated risk is taking care of our granddaughters, ages 2 and 4, two days a week. The other days they are in daycare. My husband also flies, masked, as a flight instructor with Civil Air Patrol (other pilot is also vaccinated). I have been driving vaccinated, masked refugees a bit (airport pick-ups, English assessment tests), but, as I’m 70 with other health issues, i might need to back off of that until this wave passes. Any advice on that?
Nelle
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: I got my rapid tests shipped from Walmart, of the Evil Empire. Only place i could get them and they came quickly. Binax.
Another Scott
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:
Washingtonian – Try the Fairfax, DC, or PG public libraries.
I ordered boxes from Walgreens on-line. There were huge delays, but they eventually came.
Good luck!
Cheers,
Scott.
Good luck!
frosty
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: Try Pennsylvania. There were plenty at CVS stores south of Pittsburgh this weekend.
Old Man Shadow
Christmas will be eight of us total celebrating at my in laws’ house. All vaccinated and boosted and careful about wearing masks in buildings.
Followed by probably just me contactless delivery of presents to my family’s porch since they have chosen the path of the Plague Rat. And yes, I have been tempted to just deliver lumps of coal.
HumboldtBlue
This doctor lays out on Reddit (r/Qanoncasualties) what medical professionals have been dealing with during the pandemic and I suspect many more professionals will join their exodus.
Old Man Shadow
@Cermet: I’m honestly surprised more of them haven’t turned on Trump since he was involved in throwing money at the drug companies to ramp up vaccine production.
“HE WAS DEEP STATE THE WHOLE TIME!!!”
eclare
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: I got my tests, Binax, at Walgreens in person. They had plenty but that was a month ago, at least.
Ohio Mom
Went for a medical appointment this morning and the check-in clerk was NOT wearing a mask!
Thought about complaining but I wasn’t seeing a doctor, just a nurse, and didn’t think my complaint would go anywhere, and I am just so exhausted at everything.
Omicron has officially arrived in Cincinnati and there is nothing to do except hide at home I guess. Will have to rethink the annual Christmas Day lunch at the Chinese Restaurant.
Cermet
@Nelle: Your type of person – so engaged and extremely helpful is critically needed; as such, you absolutely need to play it safe. This will pass and your activism will again be of great value and desperately needed by people after this wave has passed.
VOR
Last year I thought the end was in sight because vaccines were beginning rollout. Never occurred to me that people would have mass oppositional defiant disorder. I underestimated the level of willingness to cut off their own nose to spite their face.
Benw
@WaterGirl: good call.
eclare
@HumboldtBlue: Words fail.
WaterGirl
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: Recent news says that about 1 out of 3 rapid tests gives a false negative with Omicron. So even if you have tests, there’s a lot of uncertainty there.
New Deal democrat
Several experts I follow with some hopeful information about Omicron.
First, Marc Lipsitch:
https://mobile.twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1472345274878242818
“Several lines of evidence here suggesting a lower hospitalization proportion than in previous waves, limited to first 25 days. Caveats 1) this is growing faster, so higher proportion of recent cases makes bias (missing not-yet-hospitalized) worse even when compare first 25 days 2) the proportion vaccinated is going up, as is the proportion previously infected, so a more immune population. So hard to compare but declining in-hospital severity measures here as in Discovery Health are hopeful signs.”
And Trevor Bedford:
https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1472971346426531847
“ A 4 to 6-fold reduction in neutralization titer or a ~20% drop in vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic illness is really not bad and I’m happy boosters broaden immunity as much as they do”
And Conor Kelly:
https://mobile.twitter.com/CohoKelly/status/1472724027869257732
“Hospitalizations (current, not new admissions) continue to grow in Gauteng according to
@nicd_sa
daily surveillance reports, though ICU and ventilated seem to be leveling off some, at relatively low levels compared to past waves”
Sure Lurkalot
@Benw: Just having a birthday close to Xmas (raises hand) sucks enough.
Something non-public outdoors on the fly? Scavenger hunt? Hike? I know, I’m grasping at straws here because I’m a half century from being a tween.
HeleninEire
My office is going back to a hybrid workday starting tomorrow. If you have your own office you can come in. Those who don’t, will work on a staggered home/office schedule.
Every day we get an email or 2 or 3 telling us yet another person has tested positive. Today’s email had 6 people on it. I am luckily in the administrative offices. Most of the people who are testing positive are in the court building and by definition have to interact with the public.
Exhausted, I am.
eclare
@WaterGirl: The Binax come two to a box, and I’ve read the most effective way to use them is to take both a few days apart. I think three days is recommended.
dmsilev
@WaterGirl:
Exactly the same for me. And thankfully my family is sane so it didn’t really require any explanation. Just “Omicron, I’ll visit once the wave recedes” and that was enough.
Matt McIrvin
*sigh*
There’s so much stuff that I am participating in where the other people are taking what they figure not unreasonably are sensible precautions, but the activities would not happen at all if I were king, but I’m not king, and doing some kind of personal boycott like I’m Mr. Superior would damage relationships that are already frayed by me playing the paranoid family COVID cop.
And that’s all I’m going to say about that.
Benw
@eclare: it’s her 12th so she will get the full Pfizer on the day after her birthday! Yay!
But we’re not sending her to school this week because it will be rampant in the schools if it’s not already because 40% of our neighbors won’t get themselves and their kids vaxxed. And if she gets exposed it’s at least 14 more days until she can get her shot. So disruptive and frustrating.
@The Dangerman: thanks! She’s always been pretty cool with it, but she’s really been looking forward to the party this year.
WaterGirl
@eclare: This is the source of the information I provided above.
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: The whole thread is well worth reading.
eclare
@Benw: That makes sense to keep her out of school. Congrats on getting her vaxxed! It was a huge relief when I got my first shot, must be enormous for a parent.
New Deal democrat
@WaterGirl: Just got off the phone with my best friend. Told him I was almost certainly cancelling my Christmas trip.
He told me that where he lives (So Jersey outside Philly) is a hotbed of COVID right now, so good choice.
HumboldtBlue
@dmsilev:
My brother called me last week to ask me if I was coming to San Diego for Christmas and I said no, it’s too dangerous. Might be my dad’s final Xmas as well.
Benw
@Sure Lurkalot: our current thinking is to hit the rink right as they open on a weekday and go for it if it’s basically empty.
Matt McIrvin
@VOR: To be fair, with Omicron there’s a fair possibility that nothing we did could have prevented it from arising in the first place–the mutations may have originated either in an immunocompromised person or in a nonhuman species, and it’d likely spread even in a fully vaccinated and boosted world population. But vaccinating everybody definitely would limit the damage.
eclare
@HumboldtBlue: My Aunt that I cancelled on is 92. She seems pretty healthy, here’s hoping she hangs on.
HumboldtBlue
@eclare:
Pop is 89 so I am hoping for much the same.
Benw
@eclare: she’s the youngest so the last one to get vaxxed. We are so so excited to have the entire household finally done!
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@WaterGirl: Well 2 out of 3 is better than no chance of knowing at all. I realize these tests aren’t perfect but if I go get a PCR test today I’ll have the results like 3 days later. That’s about the time we’re leaving for Michigan but in the interim who knows what we’d have been exposed to. There’s really no substitute absent immediate PCR test results, which nobody does, to testing the day you’re visiting someone using a rapid results test. It’s just that they’re not available. It thought the Administration was going to make them widely available as of a statement I think I recall they made a few weeks back. This is not something that is going to affect my overall political opinions but honestly I’m somewhat disappointed they fell short of making that happen.
We’re stopping overnight in Cleveland at my Aunt and Uncle’s house. They’re in VT visiting their eldest and her family so nobody will be there. Hopefully they’ll have test kits in Cleveland. Or maybe we’ll find some on the way through PA. Or maybe in Toledo or Ann Arbor, Lansing, etc.
JoyceH
I’ve decided to go ahead and have my friend over for Christmas. We’re both vaxxed and boosted and have home test kits so we’ll both test on Wed and Thurs – if all four tests are negative she’ll drive down on Friday. And this will be the last person allowed in my house until the surge is over and the new therapeutics are released!
Bunter
@HeleninEire: Oh, do I hear you. My day job’s office went to WFH (though you can go in if you want) at close of day last Thursday. Only until January 3rd, but we’ve had six cases since Thanksgiving in a fully vaxxed office and they don’t tell us. It gets around by the grapevine or the person infected tells you but the C-Suite just goes and gets themselves tested and “Oh, it’s a privacy issue, we can’t say” to the rest of us who ask when something comes up.
Ella in New Mexico
Its not just State health departments and the CDC, it’s everywhere. Our electronic healthcare records, data and communications systems SUCK in the United States.
Fill in the blank above with every single frutration you and your provider have about delays in Prior Authorizaitons and care, duplication of tests and orders, excess time taken because providers are still getting reams of faxed paper orders and requests from outide their health systems, and for the lack of ability to see notes from another health care provider on your patient…it goes on and on.
Every day as a relatively new primary care provider I’m appalled at how our system’s “cracks” and lack of ability to connect electronically is costing us likely trillions of dollars.
Hilary wanted to change this 30 years ago–why is is only marginally better now than then?
We need a stand alone “Build Back Medical Care Better” bill like yesterday.
Citizen Alan
@HumboldtBlue: Stories like this are why I take savage pleasure from reading the Herman Cain Awards every day. They are not poor deluded fools in my eyes. They are dangerous maniacs who will kill us all with their delusions if they can. And every fucking one of them votes. I genuinely think that the only hope for our nation is if their death-urge takes out enough of them to swing next year’s elections.
Feathers
From Christine Brennan on Twitter:
Ugh. Hoping for some sort of athlete protest, but in a judged sport, it’s hard. US Figure Skating had the whole thing figured out – a hotel in Vegas that had a skating rink as part of the complex. Allowed for competitor only bubble. But they ditched that for Nashville. Stupid.
Citizen Alan
@HumboldtBlue: I feel you. I came back to Mississippi b/c my mom is 85 and seems to be in decline. Granted, she may outlive me out of sheer orneriness, but I didn’t want to miss what feels like my last Christmas, even though being in Mississippi right now feels like I’m the idiot who walked into the haunted house on a dare in every fucking horror movie ever made.
Also, I had a long talk yesterday with my idiot unvaccinated nephew who’s political views are, IMO, deranged. And I’d have said so if he wasn’t generously giving me a ride to the grocery store because mom had absolutely no food in the house. He’s a “small l libertarian” who is pro-choice and wants to legalize all drugs (and is probably a secret pothead; he was evasive on whether he still uses), but he thinks “both parties are just the same” and voted for Trump. He also has a job working at the local paper, but it’s a sinecure and all he does is sit around watching Youtube videos all day, which he proudly says is his only source of news.
SpaceUnit
I’m curious if anyone can weigh in on the optimal time to get the booster shot after receiving the second dose. Six months is the period one always hears, of course, however the CDC website (and some other sources) recommend that one should wait at least six months, suggesting to me that a longer period might, in fact, be better in some cases. Unfortunately, they don’t elaborate on the point.
Anyone?
Feathers
@Ella in New Mexico: It’s because lots of people profit from the fragmentation, but even more because no one is willing to give up the chance for the huge money to be made in the inevitable monopoly for healthcare digital information. I worked for two universities that ran their own healthcare systems (basically employees could use the student system). Having all your records where doctors could just look everything up, see when you dosage got switched and what you had tried before was amazing. Really missing it.
glc
Back to our social bubble with the next door neighbors, finally terminated our round of outdoor dining and movies, which was very welcome during the lull, and still grocery shopping, as of this moment.
This is all moving a little quicker than I expected three weeks ago when making my final decision about attendance at the WorldCon, but the general direction was clear enough.
So here we are. Our mad social life (occasionally leaving the house, and even traveling) is for now the stuff of fond memory.
Tazj
Are you sure there are no labs near you that don’t have results in sooner than three days? I’m from the Buffalo NY area and there are at least 4-5 labs in the area that have a 24 hour or less turn around time for PCR test and sooner for rapid tests of course.There is a lab here that has PCR results in a few hours but you pay about $200-300 dollars for that. People do that who want to cross the Canadian border.
I’m only asking because I was sure my son had COVID 2 weeks ago and the school nurse told me where to go.I thought we had to wait 3 days for results like back in May when he was tested before he was vaccinated.
If you went in the early morning your results were back by the end of the day.We went at 345pm and the PCR results were back by 130pm the next day. No charge and no doctor’s note was needed. You made the appointment yourself.
I know I’m not in a major metropolitan area so things are probably completely different there but I would think about getting a PCR test if you can’t get a rapid home test.@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?:
MisterForkbeard
@WaterGirl: Both my (fully vaccinated) young kids have the sniffles and 99.5 “temperatures” today, and they’re basically banned from seeing any family until Xmas Eve at the earliest.
It’s almost certainly not covid, but we’re being careful. And we might still do a family xmas eve visit, but I have two niece/nephews that are too young for the vaccine. So…. maybe not.
Mary G
I will probably be alone for the holidays, but suddenly that doesn’t sound do bad.
Thank you for your indomitable efforts to find and give us the actual information on this pandemic that feels like it will never ever end.
gvg
@SpaceUnit: I doubt there is really solid data on that yet. It will be years before we know that IMO. Researchers need data on all the possible scenarios and there hasn’t been enough time for results like that to have happened, let alone sort the data and peer review.
Also NOT boosting, when it might result in death and won’t result in worse outcomes, would be unethical, so the medical professionals are going to go with get boosted at this time. Later, when there isn’t so much Covid in the air, is when tests like that will happen and they will seek to determine the most effective shot schedule.
HumboldtBlue
FUCK! FUCK! FUCK! FUCK!
We just got hit by a 6.2 quake, my apartment felt like I was on a fucking boat in choppy seas. I hate that fucking feeling, I fucking hate it, and it gets worse with every motherfucking temblor. You never get used to it, it just gets worse.
All fine with me and mine, but it was a thrust fault type that rolls like a wave and it was close.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@HumboldtBlue: I know the feeling, that’s a good sized quake. Good to hear that you’re OK.
SiubhanDuinne
@HumboldtBlue:
Wow! Glad you are safe. Keep us posted, please.
gvg
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:
I got mine at Walmart just before Thanksgiving Binax 2 for $14. At the time CVS and Walgreens were out and $29 when they had the same tests. My parents became alarmed and were hearing news that locally the drug stores were running out because of Omicron fears. they wanted tests but found the online shopping saying out of stock too. I got them again from Walmart, this time I had to go 30 miles away to the next county with a much less vaccinated and more republican population, but who probably were too foolish to buy up the tests. Walmarts shopping tool gives you the find it nearby option. So I got 4 more Saturday curbside and they only took about an hour to send the ready email.
I know a lot more about shopping online than I used to. I like curbside anyway. Will continue to use. Also Walmart revamped their service a few times during the pandemic and are doing alright now. In fact most retailers are doing it differently than at the beginning of the pandemic.
The online sellers like Amazon seemed to be totally out. this time the local places were better bets.
eclare
@HumboldtBlue: Holy shit! Glad you’re ok.
SpaceUnit
@gvg:
That makes sense. Guess I’ll go ahead and schedule the shot.
MattF
Not getting vaccinated owns the libs. Period.
Mary G
@gvg: I used Instacart and got them delivered from CVS.
Mary G
@HumboldtBlue: I hate those rollers too.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@gvg: Just a general note from the land of retail…Don’t place too much reliance on what they say they have in stock, those numbers can be way off in either direction. We have customers come to the store expecting stuff to be in stock when the website says we have one of an item on hand and get all offended when we tell them we don’t have any in stock. I have many stories…
WaterGirl
@MisterForkbeard: I hope you are right that it’s not Covid. I know 4 sets of people who had someone with sniffles but tested out of an abundance of caution, and 3 out of 4 of those households got a surprise when their tests came back positive for covid.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Tazj: We have one of those places near me. I used it once, back in August when we were getting together with extended family and one of the physicians my wife works with got a break through case like two days before we were leaving. But that’s $600-$900 to get all three of us tested (it was actually not entirely easy to find the at home tests back then too so I sacrificed the one I was able to acquire to my wife, whose in health care and hence whose schedule is far more hectic than mine and I ran off to the testing site). I mean, I could afford it, I guess, but it’s a chunk of change unless you’re willing to wait 2-3 days for results. Then if your exposure was recent enough you get the timing wrong and you’re infectious two or three days after you get a negative result. There’s just no substitute for having immediate results IMO.
HumboldtBlue
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Indescribable feeling, but terror is a word that fits. Powerlessness too, and it’s that feeling of powerlessness that gets worse because there is literally nothing you can do but ride it out and hope shit doesn’t start breaking. My apt. is also on a pier foundation, which amplifies the temblor.
@SiubhanDuinne:
So far all good, waiting to hear of any damage reports. The shaking and shivering sticks around for a few minutes after a quake that big, however.
Matt
@WaterGirl: Yeah, Omicron starts by infecting the upper respiratory tract, so that’s not a surprise.
lowtechcyclist
I’m gonna have a T-shirt made one of these days with the words,
“In fond memory of all the unvaxxed folks who courageously gave their lives to own us libs”
or something along those lines.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@HumboldtBlue: The day after they had the first big quake up in Ridgecrest a few years ago, I was talking to Madame on the phone and told her I didn’t feel it(she did). Just as I said that, I felt the house starting to move and told her we were having a quake, it was the second and larger quake up in Ridgecrest.
Scout211
I found a site online that had a list of “best” rapid antigen tests. I can’t remember what website that was, sorry.
BinaxNow was listed #1 but iHealth was high on the short list and sells for $17.98 at Amazon, currently in stock. I ordered 2 boxes and they arrived in about 10 days. Not quick delivery but I already had 2 boxes at home of another brand so it wasn’t urgent for me.
The iHealth one was also shown in one of the Twitter pics AL posted on her COVID thread in a linked story about the home COVID test kits. Someone was holding two boxes in a community distribution site so the iHealth one is being used, at least for some communities. I thought that was a fairly good endorsement of that brand.
ETA: It was Wired.
Added: The other brand I bought is QuickVue, also on the Wired list.
SiubhanDuinne
@HumboldtBlue:
Several years ago, there was a small earthquake centered in Chattanooga, but I felt it in Atlanta (about 140 miles away) and was nervous. It’s a very disconcerting feeling, although it didn’t last more than a few seconds. Can’t imagine what it would be like to go through a good-sized quake. I never have, and hope I never do.
MisterForkbeard
@WaterGirl: I’ll give (at least one of) the girls our take-home covid test. But we only have a few of those, so…
The temperature has already gone away, and the sniffles are a bit better than yesterday.
raven
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: Our Wallgreens in Athens, GA have plenty. I have 6. One for before we meet up with the fully vaxxed in-laws xmas day, one for the iffy dopes the day after and one for when we get home Monday.
raven
@Scout211: It won’t be too long before someone chimes in about the rapid tests and omicron.
eta Sorry, I missed it, already been done.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@SiubhanDuinne: The way I would describe the Northridge quake was a freight train running though the first floor of the house when you’re on the second floor
ETA: Off to deal with the plague rats, or as management insists we call them customers.
WhatsMyNym
@HumboldtBlue: I just really hate the aftershocks, they just put you on edge for days.
Feathers
Just a reminder that the rapid tests are $4 in the EU. The exact same one is $24 in the US. I know why Biden isn’t pushing on this stuff, but it sucks and others are not as forgiving.
raven
@W I’m out
Mai Naem mobile
@Feathers: Jor Manchin is worried that his constituents will take those tests and pawn them for drug money. More importantly he’s worried that his daughter’s big pharma pals may not be able to afford to bribe their kids into Ivy League college educations if they get only $4/ pop for millions of rapid tests.
NotMax
@BillinGlendaleCA
Used to tell my employees that “the customer is always right … until they’re out of earshot.”
;)
HumboldtBlue
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I’m always amazed at how one tremor is just a 2.0 temblor that you can generally sense and how quickly that 2.0 becomes a 6.2 when the big one gets going. You initially think “is that a quake?” and by the time that thought has flashed through your head you’re holding on for dear life.
@SiubhanDuinne:
It’s impossible to fully describe because the power is so immense. It’s very much a gut-punch and it’s like that every damn time when they 4 and bigger. We are also at the intersection of three faults so quakes are very common. As Bill mentioned, Northridge was a thrust-fault quake where the side-to-side shaking is amplified by vertical waves that roll and jump up and down. Northridge shifted my parents’ garage by about six feet, bouncing it off the foundation, while the big TV (old CRT style) bounced its way across the living room floor. All the china came out of the cabinets, mirrors came off walls, beds bounced across bedrooms, books came down from shelves, the whole shebang.
@WhatsMyNym:
Yes they fucking do.
SpaceUnit
@HumboldtBlue:
I was visiting San Francisco with my parents and older brother in October of 1989, staying at the Marriott down on Fisherman’s Wharf when that earthquake hit. One of the most surreal experiences of my life. The floor just went liquid and all hell broke loose.
What part of the world / country, if you don’t mind my asking?
SiubhanDuinne
@HumboldtBlue:
My brother’s house was pretty well demolished by the Northridge quake. Insurance covered pretty much everything except for his greatest passion in life: his definitive collection of Cliff Richards records (LPs). A lot of them were smashed beyond recognition. He’s been able to replace some over the years, but there were early discs, collector’s items, that he’ll never see again. He’s still very upset about that loss.
eclare
@SiubhanDuinne: Apologies if I missed an update, how is your brother in AZ doing?
SiubhanDuinne
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
It must have been horrendous.
SiubhanDuinne
@eclare:
I just posted a short time ago: he’s being released from the hospital this afternoon! (Might be back home by now for all I know.) Thank you for asking — it’s been a worrying few weeks.
HumboldtBlue
@SpaceUnit:
Ground liquefaction played a huge role in the Bay Area quake and was responsible for all the most serious damage. The most hard-hit areas were where they had reclaimed land from the sea and filled it in with dirt and such. That sort of base turns to liquid during a quake and is by far the worst place to be,
@SiubhanDuinne:
My parents got off relatively unscathed, with the total insurance bill between $10-15K. I have several memories of Northridge cuz I was staying with my mom and dad when it happened. The thing that got me was that after the quake (4 a.m. if I recall) and temblors stopped and the day resumed, my dad and I drove seven miles up the highway to my sister’s place, so we could shower and clean up.
I can remember as we pulled off the free way and I look in people’s windows, and they’re eating breakfast like nothing had happened. I was irrationally annoyed, but that’s the difference geology makes. One spot gets hammered, while a couple miles away it was nothing more than a small shaker.
SiubhanDuinne
@eclare:
@SiubhanDuinne:
Comment #95 in Adam’s thread one level down.
eclare
@SiubhanDuinne: Wonderful news!
Old School
@SpaceUnit:
The earthquake was off the coast of Northern California.
HumboldtBlue
The quake was centered off the small town of Ferndale, a place where nearly every building is a historical landmark. Lots of broken windows, but the damage in past quakes has been much more severe.
@SpaceUnit:
I’m 300 miles north of San Francisco on the Lost Coast.
SpaceUnit
@HumboldtBlue:
I’m glad you’re okay. They’ve just now broken the story on CNN.
RinaX
I am a Marvel fanatic. I’ve skipped out on movie theaters for the past two years, even bypassing Shang-Chi, because of Covid. When the tickets for “No Way Home” came out, I was the first to get a set for myself and my teenage niece and nephew in IMAX. I’m vaccinated and boosted, and they both got their vaccines about six months ago. Right now I’m agonizing over whether to take them. It sounds stupid, but this was a treat all three of us have been looking forward to, and I genuinely don’t want to wait another six weeks to see it On Demand. I’m probably going to pull the plug, but god this SUCKS! #firstworldproblems
eclare
@SiubhanDuinne: Thanks!
WaterGirl
@raven: You seem to be upset by the reporting that with Omicron, 1 in 3 rapid tests will be a false negative.
I haven’t suggested that people shouldn’t test, just that a negative rapid test isn’t definitive.
Is there a reason you think the fact shouldn’t be acknowledged?
WaterGirl
@RinaX: It does suck. The ground is shifting beneath our feet – though not literally as it is right now in CA – and that’s distressing. Your concern and your reaction are totally understandable.
WaterGirl
@RinaX: I talked with 3 different friends while I was trying to figure out whether to cancel my Christmas travel plans.
Each conversation was private, so I wasn’t talking to them together, but each one ended up saying pretty much the same thing – that it was clear to them that I already knew what I should do… but that I didn’t want to have to make that decision.
I don’t know whether that applies to you or not, but it was helpful for me to hear that, and they were right, so I am sharing this in case it’s helpful to you.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@gvg: I did try Walmart but they say 3+ days shipping. I need by Wednesday to be useful for my trip so that’s not fast enough. The entire DC area is very blue so there are a lot of people trying to get test kits because they know this isn’t a hoax. I’ll be driving through plenty of red areas so maybe if there’s a CVS or Walgreens convenient I’ll stop in and see if they have any in stock.
Cermet
@HumboldtBlue: Glad your ok (as is your home.) Went through a minor one – only about 5.4 – and the work room I was in with a concrete ceiling (thick) was shaking like a piece of paper – that was impressive. Can’t imagine a 6.2(!) and don’t want to know, directly. Film at 11 sounds so much better.
HumboldtBlue
@Cermet:
That’s my third (or fourth, can’t recall) 6-plus earthquake and I’m never not amazed at just how quickly it goes from slight tremor to full on earthquake shaking your world to its foundations. Truly incredible power at work.
Sure Lurkalot
I still don’t understand the White House’s position on tests. Why wouldn’t you want everyone to test often and make it easy to do so by sending them every week? Good masks as well.
In a prior thread, someone mentioned that the MAGATs would just throw away any free tests and masks sent to them so maybe an order form would solve the waste. I could still see some MAGATs ordering them and having big demonstations of destruction because that’s the way they roll.
Once again, here we are catering public policy to the assholes and not those who would appreciate having these tools.
Layer8Problem
@HumboldtBlue: Glad you’re good. I’ve been through exactly one. East Coast earthquakes are rarely a thing, so we’re generally completely unprepared for any such. Then this happens, the 2011 Virginia earthquake.
I was in Akron, six floors up in a brick former tire foundry on a business trip doing IT stuff. I’m online texting with my partner, doing the similar in Yonkers, NY and just shooting the breeze, Things start shaking. Partner says “EARTHQUAKE!” I respond “You felt that???”, having just had my first major shaking event of my life and wondering if the building would collapse around me.
Later on I hear from my brother in Boston that he felt it too. And my Mom, the closest to the entire thing in central West Virginia? The retired-on-disability third-shift nurse slept through the whole thing.
VFX Lurker
I live in Glendale, CA. I foolishly did not buy rapid antigen tests a month ago; now I’m competing with every anxious Angeleño who wants to safely meet with friends and family this weekend. My friends and I are fully vaxxed/boosted; I just want us all to have peace of mind when I visit.
I started my search on Saturday and found few options. No major pharmacy chain appeared to have tests in stock. Two pickup orders placed on Walgreens’ website fell through. Sam’s Club wasn’t delivering until after Christmas, and required membership for pickup orders. I phoned around today, and Glendale pharmacies both big and small do not have these tests in stock.
I took a chance on online ordering rapid antigen tests from two separate stores that I found through Google Shopping. I placed one order on Saturday, the other today. The first place (360 Health SVC) promised 1-3 day shipping, but I have not yet received a notice that my order has shipped. The second place (Peach Medical Sourcing) promised to ship the next-day, and I sprang for two-day shipping. I hope to get these tests before Christmas Eve.
As one friend put it, BinaxNOW is the “Tickle-Me-Elmo” of Christmas 2021. ?
Another Scott
@Layer8Problem: I felt it in my 3rd floor office in DC – a filing cabinet started rocking back and forth. Pretty obvious what was going on!
My dad had set up a earthquake monitoring thing at his house in NC and didn’t know about it at the time because he was out doing chores on his tractor.
Life is funny. :-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@VFX Lurker:
Only the best people live there.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@HumboldtBlue: 6.2 is enough to do damage. Hope everything is ok.
prostratedragon
Layer8Problem
@Another Scott: If I remember, that caused damage to the Washington Monument.
Thank you Wikipedia: the fun starts at 1:40 minutes in, if your browser handles that video.
Geminid
@Layer8Problem: That quake was not so strong, but geology made it’s effects widespread. I was twenty miles away, and I thought at first that there was some sort of collision in a nearby trainyard. But it did millions of dollars of damage to the National Cathedral 100 miles distant, and was felt in North Carolina.
I talked to a couple who lived in Louisa County, near the quake. They were home at the time. They said their dog jumped up on the couch and started barking out the window. They were wondering what the dog saw, and then their house started shaking.
Steeplejack (phone)
@eclare:
Good call.
Layer8Problem
@Geminid: Yep, only 5.8, but it traveled.
Matt McIrvin
@Layer8Problem: When that Virginia earthquake happened, we were on a road trip up and down the East Coast and had just visited our relatives in Virginia and Maryland. But when it actually happened, we were at Hersheypark in Pennsylvania.
Working backwards, I figured out that at the exact moment the seismic waves would have hit us, we were in the elevated waiting area for the Trailblazer roller coaster, so we were kind of separated from the ground and feeling vibrations from little kids stomping around. So it’s no wonder we didn’t feel anything. Some people around Hershey did feel it.
I didn’t hear about it until a little later–my wife texted me after I got off the sooperdooperLooper, saying her mom had texted her about it. And then I spent way too long trying to get through clogged phone lines to find out if all our folks were OK. I eventually figured out email was the way to go. Everyone was fine though I think my sister who lived pretty near the epicenter had some minor house damage.
dnfree
My husband (northwest suburbs of Chicago) got very sick last week with flu symptoms. We went to an urgent care center and they tested him for both Covid and flu. It was flu. The doctor said they’re seeing a lot of both. This was Friday; he had started feeling sick on Wednesday. He was in the SAME urgent care center for a planned Covid test on Monday in preparation for a procedure. Now we’re wondering if he got the flu when he was there for the Covid test. Incubation period for the flu says 1-4 days, typically 2.
Dan B
@Benw: My neice was born the same day. She’s always had a birthday and Christmas but it’s lower key. She’s in Bend, Oregon, a beautiful small, growing fast, city just east of the Cascades. She’s got three toddlers so birthday for her is probably a no.
cain
I’m still having a hard time understanding the threat vector of the omnicron variant. When we first heard the doctors in South Africa say that the symptoms are mild. If this is 3x Delta and is not as bad, I would think that would be a good thing as it would starve off Delta – this is based on some analysis of other variants that did not catch hold because Delta spread so much faster.
That said, apparently in the UK the omincron variant has changed again to be more dangerous. Is this about right? Will omnicron get you in the hospital or what? I’m very confused right now. It isn’t going to change my behavior, it’s always going to be masking outside.
WaterGirl
@Sure Lurkalot: In a recent press briefing, Jen Psaki said they would rather have the tests available for people who would use them. So I think it makes perfect sense not to send out millions of tests that would get thrown away. Not to mention that it makes life more convenient for the anti-vac people, and why would we want to do that?
Dan B
@HumboldtBlue: There are some people who are highly educated who are the same as the RWNJ deniers. I’m tempted to write them a letter but realize it cannot penetrate their armor.
smith
@cain: I haven’t seen anything to suggest that omicron has changed to cause more serious illness. There have been enough cases now that, inevitably, there have been confirmed hospitalizations and deaths from omicron. As far as I know, it’s too early still to say exactly how serious the disease caused by omicron will typically be. One thing we can be sure of, unfortunately, is that the hyper-infectiousness of omicron will produce a lot of cases very fast, and the huge numbers of cases will lead to increased hospitalizations and probably deaths, even if on average omicron causes a milder disease than delta.
rikyrah
I am an introvert.
My sister is an extrovert, and this pandemic has just upset her.
But, she is scared of Cousin Omicron. She turned down three party invitations in the past week.
I wasn’t going to say anything, but,
“it’s not bad to err on the side of caution.”
Inside, I was overjoyed.
Dan B
@HumboldtBlue: We experienced the Nisqually quake. It was 60 miles away but did a lot of damage in places with soil that liquefied. It was weird because the rolling didn’t knock us down but we’re on top of one fault that has caused ten feet of uplift and the Juan de Fuca plate in the Pacific has cause sixty feet in eight long minutes. Was Nisqually going to be one of the big ones? I sold the hundred year old house with the non reinforced masonry foundation. We’re in a mid century modern that was built when concrete was dirt cheap – solid!
Dan B
@HumboldtBlue: Ugh. The dizziness and uncertainty are very disturbing.
NotMax
Puzzle of the vanishing Congressman solved. He’s really most sincerely dead.
NotMax
@NotMax
Whoopsie, brain freeze at work. State solon, not Congressman.
cain
@smith:
Yeah, so I guess I don’t know what it is going to be. The only thing I’m sure of is that, the omnicron is going to mutate again and we have no idea what it is going to mutate into.
Robert Sneddon
Not seeing that here in Scotland or in the reporting in the rest of the UK. What we are getting is a big increase in new cases due to Omicron infections with the daily new case rate doubling and more compared to a few weeks ago. Hospitalisations are creeping up but not by much and deaths attributed to COVID-19 are the same or decreasing slightly.
I think the number of deaths confirmed to be from the Omicron variant stands at 12 at the moment, from memory. The number of Omicron hospital cases is, again from memory, about a hundred compared to a total for COVID-19 generally of about 7,500 beds. Saying that it’s still early days although the Omicron variant is now dominant in the UK having displaced Delta pretty much everywhere.
The UK is testing hard with double the numbers of tests per day compared to four weeks ago when Omicron first made its appearance and this may be catching some very mild cases that otherwise would not be reported to the NHS and other health authorities. It helps that lateral-flow tests are free here in the UK and readily available from pharmacists etc. and if a LFT returns a positive result a follow-up PCR test to confirm the result is also free.
JAFD
There was a small earthquake, outside of Philadelphia, about 8PM of Easter Sunday, 1984 (?-iirc). Felt like a bowling alley in the basement…
The young lady I was with at the time said “When I said that I wanted to feel the earth move, that was NOT what I meant.”
(Prayers that everyone on the Pacific shore came through that ‘sound of wind and limb’.)
RinaX
@WaterGirl: I know what I have to do. But as you said, I just don’t want to. However, with an unvaccinated toddler and infant in the household, there’s only one choice with Omicron raging, as much as I want to pretend otherwise.
Bill Arnold
@Layer8Problem:
I felt that quake in an office in southern New York State. Co-workers in North Carolina were saying that they felt it as I was feeling slow lateral motions; that concurrence was weird, with mind immediately wondering about some sort of slow gravity waves. But no, just approximately equidistant to the earthquake.
Not sure I could deal with CA or some other earthquake zone. They don’t get much above 4 locally, and those are very rare.
Misterpuff
@The Dangerman: Not LBJ or Woods, but they share our birthday! 65 this year.
dopey-o
Link to the original post?